11-22-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Total Sun, 11/22/09 - 1:00 PM ¶ƒ
triple-dime bet 419 SEA / 420 MIN Under 46.5 bodog
Analysis:

*** NFL "TRUE STEAM" 3* GAME OF THE WEEK *** ("11-3" the L3 Weeks..."69% ATS" Overall)



This is a classic example of the Outfits seeing so much Value in a Bet, that they didn't even see the need to allow the "Betting Public" to force the Bookmakers, to adjust the line...and ultimately get an even better Total to go Under, than what they bet it at...

Bottom Line, there is no doubt in any Bookmakers mind...of what side the Betting Public will be on...for the Total of this Match-Up...And if they are 100% sure that they will receive a lot of action on the Over as we approach, and on game-day...you can rest assured that the Wiseguys were aware of this as well...But yet they still went ahead and took this position, which guarantees us that it's a "TRUE STEAM" Bet...

More importantly, after speaking to some of those "runners" who actually move "Steam"...They all agreed that fortunately, the books receive so much more Public Money, than they do Wiseguy Money, on the NFL...that their respective Outfits were able to take a significant position on this wager...

This Total Opened at "47"...which is actually one of a handful of "Key Totals", due to the fact that there are plenty of combinations of Final Scores, that equal 47...And the books do not like coming off these Key Totals, anymore than they do the "Key Spreads"...So you can be sure that when they do, there is plenty of "Steam" behind it...

And that is the case for this game...Where the books went ahead and opened it up at 47, and were immediately forced to adjust down to 46...

Fortunately for us, the "TRUE STEAM" Bet that I believe offers up the most betting Value, based on my own Ratings/Lines...is in the NFL...Because as I stated above, the public money far outweighs the Wiseguy money...and therefore, as the public begins unloading on the Over...we will still have no problem finding a great line...

Let's go ahead and bet the UNDER 46.5 in this Match-Up...as our very 1st NFL "TRUE STEAM" BET OF THE WEEK...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo
PICK:Jacksonville Jaguars: -8.5 () / 4 units
**4** NFL SUPREME ANNIHILATOR **68% RUN** The deadline was approaching for my weekly suicide pool pick on Tuesday as I was torn between a few teams. Then news broke early afternoon that the Bills had just fired head coach Dick Jauron and that made my decision pretty straight-forward. If you are a general manager or owner and are going to fire your coach, do it Sunday after the game and don’t wait two days into the week to do it. Buffalo was absolutely annihilated in the fourth quarter last week in Tennessee and that certainly finalized the coaching decision as Jauron lost control of that sideline. Now the Bills need to prepare for another road game on a very short week of planning and this just isn’t going to happen. A coaching change mid-season tells us one main thing and that is that the team has called it quits. In other sports, we can sometimes use the coaching change as motivation but not here as there are too few played in a season and too few games remaining. If Buffalo was facing a team that was in a similar position of fighting for a draft pick, this pick would probably not transpire. However, Jacksonville has gotten itself right back into the playoff race. Once left for dead after a 41-0 thrashing at the hands of the Seattle, the Jaguars have won three of their last four games and even though the results were close, by a combined eight points, they outgained the opposition in all of those games which make the wins actually more substantial because other variables came into play. Jacksonville is now 5-4 on the season and just a game out of the Wild Card spot in the AFC. The Jaguars are tied with other teams so they will need help but they need to take care of business and they know this. The remaining schedule is very tough with the exception of a couple of games so they cannot falter here. Buffalo has been outgained on the ground in seven straight games no thanks to a rushing defense that is ranked dead last in the NFL, allowing 173 ypg and 5.1 ypc. The Bills are the only team in football giving up over half of a first down per carry on the ground. Can Jacksonville exploit this Buffalo rushing defense? I’d say so as Maurice Jones-Drew is fifth in the NFL with 860 yards and he has had 123 or more rushing yards in three of his last four games. On the other side Ryan Fitzpatrick got the call at quarterback over Trent Edwards but that isn’t going to do much for the offense. The Bills will no doubt try and pound the ball and while the Jaguars have allowed a good amount of yards on the ground, they are allowing just 4.3 ypc.The passing defense has been the liability but Buffalo cannot exploit it with the league’s 29th ranked offense. The rushing edge for Jacksonville also puts it into a great angle. Play against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are allowing 150 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in three straight games. This situation is 27-8 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983 with the average point differential being +13.5 ppg. This is not a must win for the Jaguars but it is as close to it as possible as a loss would be detrimental. Even with the recent personnel changes for the Bills, this line has not done a whole lot. 4* Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00p
Matt Fargo
PICK:New York Giants: -6.5 () / 4 units
The Giants are coming off the bye week and hopefully they found some answers as to what has been going on the over the last four games. After starting the season 5-0, New York was thumped by the Saints and it has not been the same team since then. Normally this is sign to stay away by some but I think this is the best time to play on teams like this as we get a lot of additional value that we otherwise would not receive has they been playing like they should be playing. Despite the four straight losses, the Giants have outgained two of those opponents and those happened to be the two games played at home against the Cardinals and Chargers. Arizona played a good game and deserved the win but the Chargers had no business winning their game prior to New York’s bye week. All told, the Giants week off could not have come at a better time. Atlanta continues to struggle on the road. The Falcons are 1-4 away from home this season and they have lost the first three in this stretch of four road games in five weeks. Some of the losses have been close but this team is still young and is having trouble away from the dome. Of the nine games played this season, Atlanta has had only one really good game and that was at San Francisco but that was an aberration. The Falcons have been outgained in five of the other eight games and in the other three games where they won the yardage differential, those totals were by 22, 5 and 20 yards. As you can tell, it has been not even close to dominant. Part of the problem was last year’s savior quarterback Matt Ryan. He is playing decent but his passer rating is only 78.8 on the season as he has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes and tossed 12 interceptions. That is one more interception thrown than all of last season and now he will not have main running back Michael Turner to help out. Despite the recent struggles, the Giants are still ranked first in the NFL in total defense. They have been average at getting to the quarterback and Atlanta has done a great job in protecting Ryan and it is imperative for New York to get pressure to help out the secondary. Giants defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan probably will utilize lots of man and zone blitz schemes from all areas of the field to keep Ryan out of his comfort zone. On the other side, the Falcons defense is struggling as it is 24th in the NFL in total defense and they have been particularly weak against the run, allowing 130.3 ypg which is 25th in the league. The Giants running game is ranked seventh in the NFL so they will be able to take advantage and get the offense going once again as it has struggled to put up points the last three games. The Giants are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games teams that are allowing 5.65 or more yppl under head coach Tom Coughlin so playing a bad defense can be exploited. Also they are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games coming off a game where they outrushed the opponent by 75 or more yards. This should be the perfect spot for the Giants to back to its winning ways. 4* New York Giants
4:15p
Matt Fargo
PICK:Oakland Raiders: +9.0 () / 4 units
Now that JaMarcus Russell has been benched, it is an opportunity once again to take the Raiders. I took them in a similar spot with Russell at quarterback so I will definitely be taking them again in a similar situation without him in the lineup. Oakland dropped another game last week against Kansas City that it could have won. The Raiders have lost two straight games by eight points or fewer ever since getting pounded by the Jets so they have been competitive and have not mailed it in for the year. Oakland has covered four of its nine games this season including two of five at home and those two came against the two best teams on the schedule that came to visit in Philadelphia and San Diego. It is pretty clear that Oakland plays up or down to the competition. The Bengals are coming off a monster win in Pittsburgh, sweeping the Steelers in the process, and coming closer to grabbing the AFC North title. The win was actually the second big one in a row as they defeated Baltimore at home prior to that and Cincinnati is now 5-0 in the division with a change to finish a perfect 6-0 as it faces Cleveland at home next week. That makes a trip to the west coast the last thing on their minds as the division record is the first tiebreaking factor used and a 6-0 record obviously cannot be beat. When I bet against the Eagles out in Oakland a month ago, a lot of the situations were similar as we had an east coast team going west in a game it wanted nothing to do with. After Cleveland, the Bengals host Detroit so from a confidence perspective, the Bengals are thinking 3-0 in the next three games without blinking an eye. One major factor is hurting the Bengals and that is Cedric Benson will not be in uniform this week due to a strained hip. He will be replaced by the newly signed Larry Johnson whose best years have come and gone. Benson is sixth in the NFL in rushing so his absence is huge especially going up against an Oakland defense that has been killed by the run. This would have been a big edge but not anymore and it may be up to Carson Palmer to win it and he has been having trouble as the passing offense is ranked only 19th in the NFL and he is averaging only 6.9 ypa which is 16th. Oakland has been decent against the pass and it has been really good in three of the last four games. The offenses faced have been average but the Bengals have scored 18 or fewer points in five of their nine games. On the other side, Oakland will pound it and try to establish some sort of a running game to keep Cincinnati off the field on offense. Those two recent Cincinnati wins puts Oakland into a great situation. Play against road teams that are coming off two or more consecutive wins as an underdog and that have a winning record on the season. This situation is 46-20 ATS (69.7 percent) since 1983. The logic is simple in that underdogs winning two straight games are in store for a letdown and that is what we have here. Cincinnati is the talk of the NFL right now and this is the perfect time to sell high. The Raiders keep another one within reach. 4* Oakland Raiders
4:15p
Matt Fargo
PICK:New England Patriots: -10.5 () / 5 units
I’ve been reading numerous articles pertaining to the Bill Belichick call against the Colts where he decided to go for it on fourth down instead of punting it. I for one thought it was a smart call and a good call as he was trying to win the game right there and then with his offense that had not been stopped all night. There are debates all over the joint and there are opinions that the defense was called out by Belichick saying that he had no choice because he had no trust in his defense and that this call could be a season ending one. Both of those answers are wrong and if anything, this is going to make this team even better. Had the Patriots won that game, this game would be a lot tougher call but coming off a loss, I will take my chances with the Patriots at home. Even bettering those chances is the fact that it is a revenge spot against a hated rival who is completely unraveling. The Jets took out New England in Week Two as they did not allow a touchdown in that game. After that came a win against Tennessee but it has been all downhill since as New York has lost five of its last six games. Four of those came by five points or fewer so it can be argued that the Jets record could be a lot better and I will not disagree with that. However, when these losses pile up, it makes it tougher to recover from and this is the last place that the Jets want to go right now to try and turn their season around. This is the first road test since October 12th when they traveled to Miami as since then there have been three home games, a bye and a trip to lowly Oakland. Watching networks like ESPN really solidifies the fact that people are more concerned about controversy than about reality. This Belichick decision has been the top story since it happened and quite honest, it is already getting old. The big storyline surrounding it is how it will affect the Patriots going forward and if there is one team in the NFL that can rebound and actually improve from it, it’s the Patriots. I certainly expect that here and with the division lead now just two games over Miami, New England knows it cannot slip up especially with a game at New Orleans on deck. The Patriots are 5-0 at home and with four of the final six games being on the road, a slip up here could be devastating. The Patriots are 4-1 this season against teams ranked outside the top ten and that one loss happened to come against the Jets. This game has been circled since that September 20th loss and not only because of the loss itself but because of what was said. The first time around for these two divisional rivals, the Jets relentlessly pressured Tom Brady and came out with the win. You can be sure that this game plan will not change, but the Patriots should be better equipped to handle the overload blitz and give to Brady enough protection to pick apart the Jets’ secondary. We have to remember that the first meeting was only the second game back for Brady after missing all of last season with a knee injury. It is safe to say he is now fully back as his passer rating of 100.6 is fifth in the NFL and four of his last six games have seen a passer rating of 100 or higher after not putting up an average rating of 79.3 through his first three games. His 53.1 rating against the Jets was easily the worst of the season and he no doubt knows it and he wants redemption probably more than anyone. The Patriots have a pretty bad recent record as double-digit favorites however they are 1-1 ATS this season with the lone loss coming by a half-point. Most of those losses came in late 2007 when New England was hit with some huge overinflated lines during its undefeated regular season. It closed 1-8 ATS that season. Coming off a loss, there are not many people I’d rather be behind than Belichick or Brady as the Patriots are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a loss. 5* New England Patriots
8:20p
Matt Fargo
PICK:Philadelphia Eagles: -3.0 () / 4 units
**4** NFL PRIMETIME ON NBC ***13-6 RUN*** The Eagles were a big disappointment last week in San Diego. After losing at home to Dallas and heading out west to avoid a similar outcome like the Raiders game, Philadelphia struggled when it mattered the most and dropped its second straight game. It was fortunate that the red hot Cowboys lost in Green Bay last week so it remains a game out of first place in the NFC East. The rest of the schedule is difficult so there is no spot for anymore letdowns and that definitely includes this week. Being favored on the road may not seem like the right line at first glace but the Eagles have been favored in three of their four road games, going 2-1 ATS with the lone loss coming in Oakland. Philadelphia has outgained six of nine opponents and it has not been outgained by more than 61 yards in those three games so the problem is not overall but when the team gets inside the redzone and that is explained further down. The Bears had every chance to win last Thursday night against the 49ers but the offense stalled once again and they managed a mere six points. It was the fifth time they have scored 17 or fewer points on the season and they now have to square off against a peeved off defense that allowed 31 points last week, the second most given up this season. Chicago’s last three wins have come against the Browns, Lions and Seahawks and those three teams are a combined 5-22 so that is not exactly the best résumé. How the Bears defeated the Steelers back in Week Two is beyond me. Philadelphia is ninth in total defense and 12th in scoring defense and the Bears have struggled against the upper end of the league hierarchy. Jay Cutler in particular has had a rough time but his offensive line is just as much to blame. Chicago is 30th in the NFL in rushing offense and that comes down to the execution of the offensive line. That line will face a plethora of blitzes from the Eagles who love bringing pressure and that is what gets Cutler in trouble. The Eagles outgained San Diego by 131 yards in that game but their redzone offense was horrific as they had to settle for three field goals in their first three drives inside the San Diego 20-yard line. This has been an issue all season as the Eagles are 11th worst in the league in touchdown percentage in the redzone. The good news is that the Bears have the second worst redzone defense in the NFL as they have allowed touchdowns in 70 percent of the possessions inside the 20-yard line. Philadelphia will be without Brian Westbrook again this week as he got another concussion and was limited against San Diego. That is not ideal but the Bears defense is not playing well against the team that can take advantage and the Eagles can do exactly that. The Eagles fall into a simple yet very effective angle. Play against home underdogs or that are only averaging between 18 and 23 ppg going up against teams that are averaging between 23 and 27 ppg. This situation is 26-7 ATS (78.8 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being a potent +9.2 ppg. Both teams are struggling right now but Philadelphia is in a much better position and the struggles are things that can actually be taken care of this week. 4* Philadelphia Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 5% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Cleveland at Detroit (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 5 units on Game Total UNDER 38 -110 (risk 5 to win 4.6)

This one may be the ugliest game of the year and described by some as the Losers Bowl. Yes, I'm aware that the Browns offense has five TDs in their last 15 games, so let's get that out of the way first. It is hard to defend against that, but when you look at the roster of opponents in those 15 games, you can make a case that their offense isn't as horrible as it first appears. The Browns have faced Cincinnati three times, the Steelers twice, Baltimore twice, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Denver, Minnesota, Tennessee (last year's version at 13-3), and Philadelphia. That means in 13 of their 15 games, they were playing some of the top defenses in the league. The Browns' one win came in one of the two games they weren't playing over their head. They certainly won't be playing over their head in this one vs. a Lions’ team that has one win in their last 25 games. So as bad as Cleveland looks, they are likely not the worst team on the field today. The Browns played just four teams all of last year with a record of under .500 and in those games averaged 18 ppg. That is a far cry from the five total TDs in their last 15 (vs. 13 teams with winning records). This year through nine games, the Browns have faced just two opponents with a losing record and they are 1-1. That equals Detroit's win count in their last 25 games. The Lions have to be playing a bad team to be favored, and during this stretch of one win in 25 games, they have been favored three times and are 0-3 ATS. The Browns may be bad, but at least they have been bad against a lot of very good teams. The Lions have just been bad period and should not be favored. I like the Browns plus the 3.5. I also like the UNDER in this one. The Browns’ last 15 games have seen an average of just under 31 points per game scored, and neither of these teams have enough offense to take advantage of the others deficiencies on defense. After a big defensive effort where they allowed less than 150 passing yards, the Browns are 26-8 to the UNDER and the Lions have played five of their last six at home UNDER. Cleveland is 4-1 UNDER on thee road this season while Detroit is 3-1 UNDER at home. In games played in a dome, the Lions are 17-4 UNDER in their last 21. They are also 10-2 UNDER since last season after a double-digit loss. I like the Brownies in an ugly low-scoring game here.
Game: Seattle at Minnesota (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Seattle +11 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

If there was ever a spot on the Vikings’ schedule to take a breather, this would be it. They are coming off of two division games, and have another one waiting in the wings next week. The Vikings are at 8-1 and have all but clinched the NFC North. The Seahawks, at 3-6 certainly aren't going to get their attention to "bring it" so to speak, this week. Seattle is 0-4 on the road and have not come within 11 points of anyone, so why would they come within 11 of one of the best two teams in the NFC? Because this is the NFL and this is where the money lies. For starters, 8-1 teams as a home double-digit favorite cover just 33% of the time, and have lost 33% of the time straight up! The Seahawks lost two games without Matt Hasselback at QB, so they aren't as crummy as the record looks. Hasselbeck is back in prime form having passed for over 300 yards in each of his last two games. The Seahawks have shown some guts as they have come back in their next game after allowing 30+ points to go 4-0 ATS. The Vikings simply are not a top-notch big chalk team. The last 13 times they have been favored by 10.5 or more, they are a woeful 1-11-1 ATS. They really have been a poor home team against the number as well. This year they are 4-0 straight-up at home but just 1-3 ATS. Going back to last season, they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games! Minnesota is getting a lot of love right now based on their record and coming off a game in which they won by 17 points, allowing just 10 to the Lions. But, under Brad Childress, the Vikings are just 3-12 ATS after a game in which they allowed 14 or fewer points. I like the Seahawks to hang closer than this line.
Game: Indianapolis at Baltimore (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Indianapolis -1 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)

The Colts appear to be a team of destiny this year. They haven't lost a game in over a year (18 games) and turned a sure loss into a win last week in New England. Peyton Manning is having one of his best years ever and that is saying a lot. Winning has been ingrained here and this team expects and wants to win every single one. That mindset is paying dividends. Manning leads the league in completion percent (70%), passing yards (2872) and touchdowns (20). He has a 104.2 passer rating (third best in the league). He's only been sacked eight times on the entire season - less than once per game. Baltimore's defense has looked good the last three games, but that includes games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Denver. Cleveland can't score, Kyle Orton has really struggled of late, and Cincinnati is winning on defense, not offense. Against good offenses and quarterbacks, Baltimore has been lit up this season. They gave up 26 points to Phillip Rivers, 27 to Tom Brady, and 33 to Brett Favre. Baltimore's defense is still thought of by many to be dominant but they really are not. I expect Manning to find success. Joe Flacco has proven himself a very good quarterback and the Ravens have given him a much larger share of the load. But, Indy is 9-2 straight-up the past three seasons vs. QBs that complete 64%+ of their passes. The Colts are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games and they have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. the Ravens. Even when the Raven's defense was one of the best in the NFL, Manning and the Colts averaged 26 ppg in those contests. Now with Baltimore's defense having slipped, and Indy playing better than anyone, why not expect another Colts win here? Baltimore is 2-7 straight-up the past three seasons vs. teams at .750 or better and they have lost 33 of their last 49 games vs. teams that allow 17 or fewere points per game. Finally, Indy is 10-1 straight-up since last season after an ATS loss. I like the Colts here.
Game: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 51 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)

It has become a given that the New Orleans Saints games are going to be played against heavily "taxed" totals on the plus side, and no surprise here to see this one pushing over 50. There is an elongated history in the NFL that points to bias regarding high totals in a certain range, and this one is within that threshold. The bias points to totals that are set too high, because the public loves offensive teams and OVERs, and that certainly fits the bill here. Last week New Orleans played to the OVER (thanks to a special teams touchdown). Tampa Bay's anemic offense has caught some fire under Josh Freeman. But the scores are a bit misleading. The reality is 417 yards in two games with two INTs, doesn't show that to be the difference.. So the two games fresh in the minds of the public offset the seven games of averaging 13+ a game? The stats don't say it. The Bucs offense is averaging 276.3 yards per game, and with Freeman at QB in the last two, they have scored 61 points. But the yards average is just about the same at 290.5 (14 yards per game better). Hardly anything that says the Tampa Bay offense is rolling! The Bucs have played eight of their last eleven against a winning team to the UNDER. New Orleans is just 50% over/under this season in division games (which tend to be tighter, harder fought battles). I like this one to go UNDER.
Game: Buffalo at Jacksonville (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Buffalo +9 (-115) (risk 3 to win 2.6)

The Buffalo Bills are looking for a change. They fired coach Dick Juaron and elevated Ryan Fitzpatrick to the starter at QB. The Bills will likely be going to the run a lot in this game as Jacksonville ranks just No. 22 against the run and Fred Jackson has had a premier year. If the Bills can get the running game going and shorten the game, nine points will be hard for Jacksonville to overcome as they are likely to employ the same strategy against the Bills who have also had trouble stopping the run. The Bills secondary has made a lot of big plays this season, so the vulnerability here is against the run. This line is predicated on what happened last week. The Bills were torched by a Titans team that is getting its act together after a horrendous start, and the Jags have won two straight. The reality remains that the Jags are a team barely over .500 that has a sub-.500 ATS mark and an 8-17 ATS record dating back to last season. Over that span they are 1-10 ATS as a favorite! So, 9 points here is too much. To put it in perspective, the league’s worst team, the St. Louis Rams, came in here as a 9.5 point underdog and here we have the Bills at +9. The oddsmakers are saying the Bills and Rams are on equal footing? It also should be noted it took the Jags OT to get past the Rams and their two-game winning streak is comprised of wins by 3 points at home against the 2-7 Chiefs, and 2 points vs. the 4-5 Jets. That means that the Jags’ last three wins have come by a total of 8 points against teams with a combined record of 7-20! Hardly a team deserving of such a lofty pointspread. The Bills have covered six of their last eight on the road, while the Jags have struggled to a 2-10 ATS mark in their last 12 at home. Too many points here, I'll go with the Bills.
Game: Atlanta at New York Giants (Sunday 11/22 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +7 (-120) (risk 3 to win 2.5)

This game has become a pivotal one in the NFC as both of these teams sit at 5-4. The fact that the wildcard race sees four teams in the NFC at 5-4, the winner takes a leg up here while the loser could be in big trouble. The Giants opened the season with five straight wins, but have suddenly dropped four in a row. They own four of their five wins vs. teams that have a combined record of 8-28, so the jury is still out on just how good this team really is. The proof may be in the fact that this Giants team has allowed just 40 points in four games vs. losing teams (10 points per game), but they have been torched for 32.8 ppg in their five games against winning teams. New York's running game has not been as lethal this season, as in seasons' past. They are still gaining a respectable 4.37 yards per carry, but that pales in contrast to the potent land attack they had a year ago when they produced over five yards a pop. That has put QB Eli Manning in more situations of third and long. It has also shown itself in the interception department as Eli threw just 10 picks all last year and this year he has thrown eight already. The Giants No. 1 defensive ranking in yards allowed is misleading as they rank just No. 21 in the league in points allowed - worse than Atlanta. The Falcons have played their best after a straight-up loss where they are now 10-1 ATS, and I would expect their "A" game here which they have brought every time after a loss. This has been a road-dominated series over the years with the road team collecting the cash in the last seven, and that includes Atlanta getting the money in the last four played in New York. My computer matchup for this game has Atlanta keeping this one close. I agree that they will keep it close, and may even win.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers
> 11/22/09 NFL Seattle +11 (419)**
> 11/22/09 NFL Washington +11 (421)**
> 11/22/09 NFL Philadelphia -3 (433)

[Mr. IWS]

Sixth Sense

3% SAN FRANCISCO +6.5
3% SEATTLE +10.5
3% NY JETS +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

DOCS SPORTS
5 Unit Play. #114 Take San Francisco +7 over Green Bay (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Play of the Week. The 49ers have played the NFC North tough this season, beating the Bears last week and only a fluke play kept them from beating the Vikings in Week 3 of the season. The 49ers are catching the Packers at the right time since they are coming off an emotional victory over Dallas and must play four days later in Detroit on Thanksgiving. San Francisco will enter this game with three days extra rest since they played on Nov.12. Expect another low scoring game and getting around a touchdown is just too good to pass up. I just do not believe that the Packers defense can play at the level that they did against Dallas one week ago. Dallas really threw in the towel when Marc Colombo went down with an injury last week. San Francisco takes this game down to the wire and we will come out on top with whoever emerges victorious. Green Bay 20, San Francisco 17.

4 Unit Play. #122 Take Over 46 in Atlanta @ New York (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top NFL Totals Play. We used the over with the Falcons last week and will ride this horse again in this critical game for both teams Sunday at the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, NJ. The Falcons have trouble stopping teams and expect QB Manning to pick apart the 28th-rated pass defense. Atlanta will also be without Michael Turner, who is out with an ankle injury. Without him expect the Falcons to pass more and the clock will be stopped a lot more, setting up a nice play with the over. The Falcons have gone over five of their last six games and this one will follow suit as well. New York 37, Atlanta 17.

4 Unit Play. #127 Take San Diego -3 over Denver (Sunday 4:15 pm CBS) The Chargers have caught the Broncos in the standings after trailing them by three games three weeks ago. Now they have a chance to put them in their rear view mirror with a victory this Sunday at Invesco Field in Denver, CO. The Broncos started off 6-0 and now have lost three straight games and a loss here could bury them. QB Orton will likely play in this game, but I do not think he will be able to turn the tide back to a favorable direction. Denver got a kick return and a punt return for a touchdown in the first meeting and that will not happen in this game. QB Rivers has played outstanding since his loss to Denver with a 9-3 touchdown to interception ratio. The Chargers take back the division and we collect big in the process as well. San Diego 24, Denver 14.

4 Unit Play. #135 Take Tennessee +5 over Houston (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Titans have righted the ship and will enter this AFC South battle having won three straight games to improve to 3-6 on the season. In those three victories the Titans have run the ball for an average of over 200 yards per game. Tennessee has covered against Houston in five of their last six meetings and getting over a field goal is too good to pass up. QB Young does not put up impressive stats but he does win ball games and that is what they quarterback position is all about. Houston is coming off a bye and expect them to be a little rust early in the game much like the Minnesota Vikings showed last week against Detroit. Tennessee gets out to an early lead and hangs on for the victory winning for the fourth time in their last four games. Tennessee 28, Houston 27.

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Point Sports

NFL Plays

7-Unit Play. #431 Take San Diego (-3) over Denver (4:15 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 20)

This game is huge for the Chargers. While Denver is the team slipping, it's pretty much the way everyone thought they would play to begin the season. Kyle Orton very well could miss this game because of torn ankle ligaments and Chris Simms was pretty inept last week in his replacement. Right now Philip Rivers is playing great football, the Chargers defense looks as good as they have all year and LT is beginning to produce on the ground. Forget about revenge from the first meeting this year. San Diego still needs this game more than Denver because they trail in the division. Chargers keep it rolling in the right direction and make another step towards the top of the division.

[Mr. IWS]

Stu Feiner's
1,000,000 dime Private play
Dallas minus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Ferringo

NFL FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take #433 Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)
Note: This is our Gridiron Game of the Week.

3-Unit Play. Take #414 Baltimore (+1) over Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


2-Unit Play. Take #409 Buffalo (+9) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


1-Unit Play. Take #430 Oakland (+9.5) over Cincinnati (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


This week's totals:
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 45.0 N.Y. Jets at New England (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 42.5 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 47.0 Arizona at St. Louis (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.0 Atlanta at N.Y. Giants (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 46.5 Seattle at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 41.5 Washington at Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)


1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #433 Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago (8 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22) AND Take #420 Minnesota (-3.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 22)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #411 Pittsburgh (-3) over Kansas City (1 p.m.) AND Take #423 Tampa Bay (+18.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel
Oakland/regular
Under Giants/regular
Under Jacksonville/20*

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Valentino
50 DIME: BALTIMORE RAVENS

[Mr. IWS]

BRYAN LEONARD'S AFC SUPER PLAY

New York at New England

The Jets are fading fast after taking care of the Patriots 16-9 in the earlier meeting. New York has dropped 5 of their last 6 games with the only victory coming against the Raiders. They have lost two key cogs along the defensive line which has really slowed down their pass rush. Offensively New York has struggled a bit against questionable defenses. In fact, if you look at whom the Jets have played you can make a case that the offense is actually worse than the numbers would show.

The Patriots are off an embarrassing loss last week to the Colts. They had that game firmly in their grasp and let it slip away. Now they are back home looking to avenge the earlier loss to the hated Jets. Wes Welker didn't play in that meeting and his absence was a major reason why Brady struggled. That and it being his second game back since his season ending injury. New England has been money in the bank off a loss under Belichick. This year alone they covered the spread by margins of 12 and 50 points after suffering defeats.

New York has played the Patriots tough the past few seasons but this is a game in which New England will run up the score if given the chance. Remember that 59-0 victory over Tennessee earlier this season.

PLAY NEW ENGLAND

[Mr. IWS]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

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6* W ido w W ise guy 2009 A FC D OG OF THE YE AR on Oakland Raiders +10(-110 at SIA)

HUGE letdown spot for Cincinnati here. The Bengals are now in control of the AFC North, sweeping their season series with both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Coming off their 18-12 road win over the Steelers last week, it's only human nature that the Bengals have a letdown on the road against Oakland Saturday. Now we're not saying the Raiders are for sure going to pull off the upset, but we are saying there's no chance in hell Cincinnati comes away with a double-digit victory on the road. It's always tough for an East Coast travel out to the West Coast, which is just another factor that favors the Raiders here. RB Cedric Benson, one of the top backs in the league, may not play Sunday for Cincinnati. That's why they signed Larry Johnson, and without Benson at full strength this team just isn't the same. Oakland will be able to blitz the hell out of the Bengals, which is something they found to be very effective against the Eagles a few weeks back as they upset Philly 13-9 at home as 14-point underdogs. The Bengals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. Cincinnati is clearly overrated right now after their fast start with big wins over good teams, but that's why the dog is showing so much value Sunday and we'll take advantage. Take the Raiders as our 2009 AFC DOG OF THE YEAR Sunday! (Recommend Buying to +10)




5* W ise guy N BC S un day Ni ght P arlay (TOTAL) on Eagles -3/OVER 45(-105 at 5dimes)

In a game between two beat up defenses and two very good passing teams, we will side with the OVER Sunday night in what will likely be a very high-scoring affair. Philly is scoring 26.9 points/game this season, while the Bears have been at their best offensively at home, scoring 29.0 points/game. Both teams average 249 passing yards/game this season. McNabb threw for 433 yards against the Chargers last week, so this offense is really hitting on all cylinders. Look for them to punch it in this week when they get into the red zone. Jay Cutler has thrown for 347 and 307 yards in his last 3 games, respectively, but 5 interceptions really cost them against the 49ers last week. Both teams are moving the ball at will, but each is killing themselves with mistakes. We see each team correcting most of those mistakes this week, and it will certainly result in more points. Philly is 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 11-3 OVER (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take the OVER 45 points.




5* W is eg uy N BC Su n day N igh t Pa rlay (Side) on Eagles -3/OVER 45(-102 at 5dimes)

The Eagles aren't about to drop 3 straight games. They did lose to Dallas at home, and to the Chargers on the road, both games they easily could have won. The Bears lost 21-41 in their last home games against Arizona, allowing 256 passing yards and 5 touchdowns from Kurt Warner. They also gave up 182 rushing yards to the Cardinals in that game. The Bears are simply beat up defensively, and they don't have the caliber of players who can stop one of the best offenses in the league in the Eagles. Philly puts up 26.9 points/game this season, and Donovan McNabb is coming off a career day against the Chargers last week with 433 passing yards. He has been torching opposing defenses all year with weapons such as Jackson, Celek, Maclin and Avant. Not to mention LeSean McCoy, who is great at catching the ball out of the backfield and will play a key role tonight. Cutler doesn't have the same kind of weapons McNabb does, and that's why he is having to force balls, which has led to just 14 touchdowns and 17 intercetpions from Cutler this season. Home-field hasn't been much of an advantage when these teams meet up. The road team is 4-1 S.U. in the last 5 meetings. Chicago simply has a lot more problems that need ironed out than the Eagles do, making Philly the right play tonight. McNabb has thrown 12 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, so he can be trusted a lot more than Cutler can Sunday night. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. They always tend to bounce back following a loss, and coming off 2 losses we cannot see any scenario where they lose Sunday night. Take the Eagles and lay the points.



5* W iseg uy NFL "B LOO D B AT H" of the W ee k on New York Giants -6.5(-110 at SIA)

Off 4 straight losses and off a bye week, it's now or never for New York. We're going to predict that they get the job done Sunday and win by at least a touchdown against an Atlanta Falcons' team that is falling fast. Atlanta has lost 3 straight road games by 9, 8 and 16 points. Now, Michael Turner is doubtful to play Sunday with an injury, leaving the Falcons short-handed against a very hungry Giants' team that has had a bye week to get healthy. The Giants are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Atlanta will be forced to try and move the ball through the air Sunday, and that will play right into the Giants' hands. Matt Ryan threw 2 interceptions in a 21-37 road loss at Dallas, 3 interceptions in a 27-35 road loss at New Orleans, and 2 more interceptions in a 19-28 road loss at Carolina during their 3-game road losing streak. He is making mistakes because nobody is getting open on the outside, and teams are able to key in on Tony Gonzalez to take away their best weapon. New York has had 2 weeks to prepare for Ryan and the Falcons, and they'll have the perfect game plan to come away with a blowout home win as they force Atlanta's QB into more mistakes, while taking care of the ball themselves and getting back to running the football. Take the Giants and lay the points.




4* on Washington Redskins +12(-110 at SIA)

Washington always seems to play the Cowboys tough. Now coming off a huge win over the Broncos, the Redskins finally have some positive vibes to build off of as they head to the "Big D" Sunday. Washington is 5-3 S.U. and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Cowboys. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 5 points or less, with the lone exception being a 27-6 home win for Washington in 2007. You have to go all the way back to their first meeting of 2006 to find the last time the Redskins lost by double-digits to the Cowboys. Dallas was exploited last week against Green Bay, and this team is not as good as their 6-3 record indicates. Washington has allowed just 19.0 points/game this season, and their defense alone gives the Redskins a great chance to pull off this upset Sunday. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Dallas is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games vs. NFC East foes. The Redskins are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. Take Washington and the points.




4* on Buffalo Bills +9(-110 at bookm)

Jacksonville is 5-4 this season, but only 1 of their 5 wins have come by more than 7 points. That came at home against Tennessee early in the season as they caught the Titans playing their worst football of the season. The Jaguars should not be this heavily favored Sunday, and the only reason they are is due to their big road win last week against the Jets by 2 points. The Jaguars have won back-to-back home games, but needed overtime to beat the Cardinals by 3 points and they managed to beat the Chiefs by just 3 points in their last home contest as well. Buffalo is better than both those squads, and the firing of Dick Jauron should give this team a much-needed change. Jauron doesn't get the most out of his players because he is too passive. A head-coaching change will give these players a jump-start, and we would not be surprised one bit to see Buffalo pull off this upset. They were tied 17-17 with the Titans in the fourth quarter on the road last week before giving that game away. But Trent Edwards was returning from a concussion last week, and in his second game back against the Jaguars we fully expect him to be much more efficient. Jackonsville is scoring just 20.1 points/game and allowing 24.4 points/game, not numbers you would expect from a team with a 5-4 record through 9 games. This line has been inflated based off of public perception, and that's why all the value is on the Bills here Sunday. The Bills are 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game since 1992. The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. Needless to say, the Jaguars are terrible in the role of the favorite. Take Buffalo and the points.




4* on San Francisco 49ers +7(-115 at bodog)

We'll take the touchdown on the 49ers, who have been very competitive on the road this season. Though the 49ers are 1-3 SU on the road, they are 3-0-1 ATS. San Francisco has lost 3 road games all by 3 points each, and they also have a road win over the Cardinals. So they have yet to lose a road game by more than 3 points. They brand of football they play gives them a chance to win every game, which is with a solid running game and a stout defense. Defensively, they give up just 88 rushing yards/game and 3.3 yards/carry. They will stop the Packers' running game, and make Aaron Rodgers try to beat them. When Rodgers does that, he is very prone to making mistakes. With their huge win over the Cowboys last week, 17-7, this is certainly a letdown spot for Green Bay. The 49ers have had 3 extra days to prepare for the Packers after playing on Thursday last week. This will also be a big factor heading into this showdown. Under Mike Singletary, the 49ers are 6-2-1 ATS in 9 road games. The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. This team is at their best in the role of the dog as the preceeding trend indicates. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win. Take the 49ers and the points. (Recommend Buying to +7)

[Mr. IWS]

Guaranteed Pick: Carlo Campanella GOY

Game: Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders Nov 22 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals
Reason: For those who don't think that Cincinnati (7-2) is for real, and will win the AFC North, they have already beaten their 2 biggest Division rivals, Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each, and that 4-0 record will allow them to win any tie-breaker. Cincinnati comes off an impressive 18-12 win at Pittsburgh last Sunday and now heads Oakland knowing they are 6-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. In their only other back-to-back road games this season, they impressively defeated Baltimore 17-14 as 8-point dogs. With Oakland, Cleveland, and Detroit their next 3 games on the schedule, these Bengals know that it's time to step up their game, as they can easily extend their Division lead against these opponents that combine for a 4-22 record this season. No letdown here, as the Bengals defense ranks #2 against the run and held a tough Pittsburgh ground attack to just 80 yards on 18 carries last Sunday. With Oakland benching starting QB Russell for inexperienced QB Gradkowski, expect the Bengals to key on the run and force the Raiders to pass the ball. Lay the lumber with road favorite Cincinnati improves on their 3-1 ATS road record this season.
10* Play On Bengals

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

[408] 4* Detroit Lions -3 -115 (@ bookmaker) | 1:00p ET

[411] 4* Pittsburgh Steelers -9.5 -120 (1 pt buy @ the greek) | 1:00p ET

[501] 4* Orlando Magic -3 -110 | 12:30p ET

[Mr. IWS]

A.REDD

75 dime Seahawks
5 dime giants
5 dime jets
5 dime lions

[Mr. IWS]

GOY's YESTERDAY WENT 6-12

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers
NFL Seattle +11
NFL Washington +11
NFL Philadelphia -3

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK CLUB
6 Units on Indianapolis (-1) Baltimore, 1:00pmET
5 Units on New Orleans (-10.5) over Tampa Bay, 1:00pmET
5 Units on New England (-10.5) over NY Jets, 4:15pmET
4 Units on Minnesota (-10.5) over Seattle, 1:00pmET

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso:
200 Units Patriots
15 units Colts
5 units Giants
4 units Redskins
3 units Jaguars

[Mr. IWS]

Players NFL Sunday 10* on Baltimore on Nov 22nd
Scott Rickenbach’s NFL 10* (Top Play) Baltimore Ravens (+) vs Indianapolis @ 1 ET – RATING SYSTEM: Plays range from 6* up to 10*. The 6*, 7*, and 8* picks are the normal, daily play ratings. The 9* and 10* picks are the higher-rated plays and are Top Plays! A 10* Top Play is rare and, of course, is a level above a 9* Top Play!

The Colts are the only undefeated team in the AFC and yet they opened up as an underdog here. Sure enough, the money has been flowing in on Indianapolis and this line has been driven up as high as the Colts -2.5 as of game day morning. This is why we’ve waited so long to post this big play but it’s one we’ve had our eyes on ever since the Colts very fortunate win over New England last week. The Patriots, especially with coach Bill Belichick’s poor late-game decision, basically handed the Colts the game on a silver platter. Note that Indy was dominated by New England for much of that game. Hence, the corresponding line value this week as all most bettors see is a Colts team that remains undefeated. Indianapolis was down by 17 points to New England both in the 2nd and 4th quarters of yesterday’s game. Then, even with less than three minutes to go in the game, the Pats still led by 13 points before the collapse and the gift! The Patriots gained 477 yards in the game and they held the ball for 60% of the game. The Colts have had time of possession problems in many key games this season – remember Monday night at Miami? The point is that this also wears a team down and now Indy has to face a very physical Ravens defense.

Yes we are aware of the injury to Terrell Suggs of the Ravens but note that the Colts have numerous injuries on defense and, even if some of their injured players are able to go here, they are not 100% and Baltimore’s physical style – even on offense – will punish the Colts. Yes, Indy has had great success on the road this season but the Ravens are 3-1 ATS at home and they also are coming off of an easy, dominating win over the Browns on Monday. Even though the Colts had an extra day of rest, compared to Baltimore coming off of a short week, there is no doubt that it took a lot more for Indianapolis to get their win over the Patriots compared to the Ravens shutout win over the Browns in Cleveland. Grab the motivated home dog here and, trust us, the books had the Ravens installed as the favorite over an undefeated team for a reason! We’ll grab the points just in case but the Ravens physical style absolutely should lead to an outright win as the Colts defense continues to get worn down. The Colts gave up nearly 500 yards last week to the Pats and nearly 400 yards to the Texans the prior week. After three straight home games for Indy – with their defense being stretched out in the last two – they are in trouble as they take to the road for just the second time since October 11th! Play Baltimore plus the points as a 10* Top Play selection

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas-runner

SEA / 420 MIN Under 46.5 bodog

Analysis:

*** NFL "TRUE STEAM" 3* GAME OF THE WEEK *** ("11-3" the L3 Weeks..."69% ATS" Overall)



This is a classic example of the Outfits seeing so much Value in a Bet, that they didn't even see the need to allow the "Betting Public" to force the Bookmakers, to adjust the line...and ultimately get an even better Total to go Under, than what they bet it at...

Bottom Line, there is no doubt in any Bookmakers mind...of what side the Betting Public will be on...for the Total of this Match-Up...And if they are 100% sure that they will receive a lot of action on the Over as we approach, and on game-day...you can rest assured that the Wiseguys were aware of this as well...But yet they still went ahead and took this position, which guarantees us that it's a "TRUE STEAM" Bet...

More importantly, after speaking to some of those "runners" who actually move "Steam"...They all agreed that fortunately, the books receive so much more Public Money, than they do Wiseguy Money, on the NFL...that their respective Outfits were able to take a significant position on this wager...

This Total Opened at "47"...which is actually one of a handful of "Key Totals", due to the fact that there are plenty of combinations of Final Scores, that equal 47...And the books do not like coming off these Key Totals, anymore than they do the "Key Spreads"...So you can be sure that when they do, there is plenty of "Steam" behind it...

And that is the case for this game...Where the books went ahead and opened it up at 47, and were immediately forced to adjust down to 46...

Fortunately for us, the "TRUE STEAM" Bet that I believe offers up the most betting Value, based on my own Ratings/Lines...is in the NFL...Because as I stated above, the public money far outweighs the Wiseguy money...and therefore, as the public begins unloading on the Over...we will still have no problem finding a great line...

Let's go ahead and bet the UNDER 46.5 in this Match-Up...as our very 1st NFL "TRUE STEAM" BET OF THE WEEK...VR

[Mr. IWS]

al demarco
2nd half of the season
blowout of the year
vikings

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast

4* GOM NYG
3* NE
3* Minn

[Mr. IWS]

COACH RON MEYER

15* Redskins (+11)

10* Bucs (+10.5)

5* Jets (+10.5)

[Mr. IWS]

northcoast line
button#3 colts
button#9 chargers

[Mr. IWS]

john ryan 15* Chicago Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Young Gun Sports

4* Celtics
3* Over Pacers
3* Hornets

[Mr. IWS]

RAs..SanJose+1.5..IUPUI-3..One Unit

[Mr. IWS]

Cstar Sports

5000 units NFL Game Of The Year New England minus the points over Jets
1000 Units Baltimore over Colts
1000 Units Pittsburgh minus the points over KC
50 units Cincinnati Oakland over the total

[Mr. IWS]

Budin

25 dime - NE

[Mr. IWS]

NSA
20* Pittsburgh
20* NY Giants
10* Colts
10* Washington
10* Bengals

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass Steam
100* Raiders

[Mr. IWS]

frank patron
20000 unit lock
cincinnati bengals -9.5

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis 100 dimer picked it up GL


No, I'm not insane. My biggest NFL play of the season is on the hapless Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. First I want you to know I'm not chasing a loss, because I've won the last two days and have won 20 of the last 27 days, including a few 50-dime winners and a 75-dime winner in college football a few weeks ago. This is a game I've been promoting since Monday when I first saw the point spreads. Anyone who has been following me knows I've been talking about this game for a while, and since the number is basically the same as it was then, I'm all over it and I'm suggesting that you should be too. Remember, I'm 10-3-1 with all my selections 75 dimes and higher. I plan to make that 11-3-1 after today.



Bear with me as I offer a few explanations as to why I like the Raiders so much. First off, let's look at the Bengals. They are clearly the most surprising team in the AFC... yes, even more surprising than Denver at this point. They've beaten both the Ravens and Steelers TWICE this year and will have to completely melt down to NOT win the AFC North. They enter today's game off a grueling 18-12 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and before that they handed the Ravens a 17-7 setback at home. In fact, this team has played three masterful games in a row, defensively, and are more than due for a huge letdown. No team in the NFL, no matter how good they are, can be "on" every single Sunday. Occasionally these NFL teams tend to "take the week off" in preparation for a team they know they should beat. This is one of those spots for Cincy. It's completely ridiculous to ask these guys to travel all the way across the country and be "fired up" to play a 2-7 Oakland team... especially after the type of emotional games they've had to endure recently.



Look back at October 4th @ Cleveland. The Bengals entered that game off wins against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and a near-win over Denver in the first week of the season. All three of those games were decided by 7 points or less and all came down to the wire. So they go to Cleveland, a team they knew they should beat, and it took every bit of overtime for them to get a 23-20 win. This is an identical situation to that one, only their traveling 3000 miles this time to play an Oakland team that, honestly, no one wants to play out there... especially Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-9 all time in Oakland. That's right --- this franchise has NEVER beaten the Raiders on the road in 9 tries in franchise history. Their last loss came back in 2003, 23-20, and before that it was 1998, 27-10. I've always told you it's hard for a western team to go east and vice versa... even more so when a team has never won in the place they're going. Cincy will have its work cut out for them today, as I see this game going down to the wire.



The Bengals were completely clueless, offensively, last week when Cedric Benson left the game. They didn't score a single offensive touchdown the entire game, and QB Carson Palmer was very average, completing 18 of 30 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. Why do you think they picked up Larry Johnson? I think the Bengals are telling us Benson's injury might be worse than first thought and they don't really trust rookie Bernard Scott (13 for 33 last week). The reason this is important is because if the Raiders have a weakness on defense it's against the run. That plays right into our hands today because it was going to take someone like Benson for the Bengals to have any consistency in the running game against Oakland. Even against the Raiders I don't see Scott running for more than about 3 yards per carry... and why should we... he's a rookie getting his first start (most likely). And as good as Cincy's pass game has been so far this season, I'm not sure they've seen a pass defense quite as good as what they're going to see today.



Oakland allows just 190 yards per game through the air at home, and having faced QBs like Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb, that's saying a lot. As you know I'm big into fantasy football, and the Raiders rank 6th in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. That means they don't, on average, allow much yardage and they rarely surrender passing TDs. No reason to think that changes today. The way to beat Oakland is to run it down their throats... and it's no surprise that the Raiders defense ranks 29th against fantasy RBs. Obviously, that means running backs are gouging this team for yards and TDs, much more so than QBs. And again, that helps us tremendously because I have absolutely no faith in Bernard Scott, Brian Leonard or even Larry Johnson. Mark my words... the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball on most drives because of these factors.



If you look at all of Oakland's home games this year, you'll see an eerie similarity in the games in which they were hammered (23-3 to Denver and 38-0 to the NY Jets) and the games they competed (13-9 win over Philly, 24-20 loss to San Diego, and 16-10 loss to Kansas City). In their two blowout losses, the Raiders allowed both the Broncos and Jets to run for over 200 yards as a team. In the tighter games, the running games were limited and the scores were obviously more competitive because Oakland can play pass defense with anyone in the league. Trust me, Chad Ochocinco is going to have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha... and with him expected to be limited (see last week) in that matchup, that leaves Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell to pick up the slack. Remember, the Bengals lost Chris Henry two weeks ago and won't have his services in the passing game the rest of the season. That's a bigger loss than many people really understand... and it's going to show it's ugly head again today. Bottom line: Cincinnati will struggle to move the ball much of the day.



As for Oakland, I realize there's not much to get excited about. I mean, we are talking about a 2-7 team. But we're catching them at home after a home loss (no travel) against a team that has now traveled back-to-back weeks and it coming a long way to be here today. We're also catching the Bengals off two straight emotionally draining victories that gave them a little breathing room in the AFC North. And I really like the fact Oakland made the decision to move QB JaMarcus Russell to the bench in favor of Bruce Gradkowski. Are we getting a top notch starter here? No, obviously we aren't. But I believe it's an upgrade at the QB position who isn't afraid to stand in the pocket and take a hit in order to deliver an accurate pass, but is also mobile enough to tuck it away and move the ball with his legs. Gradkowski used to be the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs under Jon Gruden, so it's not like he's coming into this game with no experience. He also gets to work with a healthy bunch of wide receivers, including Chaz Schilens, who was the best receiver the Raiders had in the pre-season. Let's also not forget TE Zach Miller. Not only is he a viable threat in the passing game, but the one area of weakness in the Bengals secondary is keeping an eye on opposing TEs (nearly 50 yards and 0.8 TDs per game to TEs).



As for Oakland's running game, they have all three of them healthy and ready to go, which gives Tom Cable the ability to go with the "hot hand". If Justin Fargas is running well, they'll stick with him. If not, they can fall back on Michael Bush or Darren McFadden. Bush and McFadden are both capable of catching the ball out of the backfield too, so don't be surprised if Gradkowski checks down to his backs often. The Raiders run for nearly 140 yards per game at home, and this will accomplish two things. First, it keeps the clock moving while the Raiders are slowly moving the ball down the field. Second, it keeps Carson Palmer and the Bengals offense off the field.



Look, I know this isn't a sexy pick, but it's as strong as I've had in the NFL since my Super Bowl winner on Arizona last year. It's stronger than my easy (ugly) winner on the Rams last week. Dogs are covering the number more and more ever week in the NFL, and I've been tuned in for weeks. Plus, Cincy doesn't play the role of favorite very well. They're just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a favorite, 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a road favorite, and 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite of between 3 1/2 and 10 points. Just not a good role for the Bengals here today. This one will come down to the wire. Maybe the Bengals win, maybe they don't... but I just don't see them winning by more than 10 points. If the Bengals were the pick, why did the number open at 10, then 70-75% of the public action came in on the Bengals, and now the line has dropped a half-point to 9.5? That clearly tells me Vegas is begging you to take the Bengals giving way too many points in this one, as they haven't won a road game all year by more than 7 points and have only accomplished that feat just once all year. Too many factors playing against the Bengals today, so I'm siding with the Raiders as my top NFL play of the year thus far.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

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15 UnitsColts (-1½) over Ravens
1:00 PM -- M&T Bank Stadium
Indianapolis Colts (9-0) -1 ½ over BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-4) Prediction: Indianapolis by 9-10 Starting Time: 1:00 TV: CBS, DirecTV 704 Comments: The Baltimore Ravens have one major weakness—the inability of its defense to stop the long passes thrown down the field and now it faces the master of this element of NFL football. Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has the ability to pick the Ravens to pieces and will nail the defense on every mistake it makes.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
5 UnitsNy Giants (-7) over Falcons
1:00 PM -- Giants Stadium
NEW YORK GIANTS (5-4) -7 over Atlanta Falcons (5-4) Prediction: New York by 13-14 Starting Time: 1:00 TV: FOX, DirecTV 711 Comments: The Giants come off a bye week, have almost everyone healthy for the first time in a month and have had excellent practices this week. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is struggling and will find it tough sledding against a defensive that will bring it just as it did when the Giants opened 5-0. The figures and the circumstances say the real Giants will show up today. It will not help Atlanta that it will most likely be without running back Michael Turner (injury) who has averaged 9.1 yards per carry in his last three games. The absence of Turner will put even more pressure on Ryan—and that certainly is not a helpful situation.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 55.
200 UnitsPatriots (-10½) over Ny Jets
4:15 PM -- Gillette Stadium
NFL Blowout Game Of The Year II 200 Units NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (6-3) -10 ½ over New York Jets (4-5) Prediction: New England by 27-28 Starting Time: 4:15 TV: CBS, DirecTV 715 Comments: The New England Patriots have everything working for them in this one. First of all, the stubbed their toe in that embarrassing 35-34 loss at Indianapolis last week and have a long history of bouncing back off losses such as that, raining fire and brimstone on their next opponent. Now factor into the equation, the fact the Jets beat the Patriots 16-9 in the second game of the season and the revenge factor is in play and New England Coach Bill Belichik has a long history of getting even. It also is important to note the Jets are really struggling with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. They opened the season 3-0 and have since gone 1-5. It all adds up to a long afternoon for New York as it takes on a New England team with better talent and a bad attitude.
Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass Final
50 Teaser Ne/seatle
50 Denver
100 Cleveland
100 Baltimore
200 Buffalo
300 Chicago

[Mr. IWS]

Executive
400 Gb
150 Nyg
100 Den, Jack

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia vs. Chicago

The Eagles take on the Bears in Chicago in a matchup of teams each riding two-game losing streaks. Bad news for the Bears is QB Jay Cutler's horrific 3-15-1 ATS mark in his NFL career as a starter at home when his team's win percentage is .444 or greater, including 0-11 ATS when the Over/Under total in the game is more than 43 points. Add to that Chicago's 0-5 SU and ATS mark in games under head coach Lovie Smith versus a greater than .400 opponent off back-to-back losses. On the flip side, the Eagles are 8-0 SU and ATS versus a .500 or less opponent off back-to-back losses when Philadelphia is off a loss. The clincher is the fact that NFL favorites with a winning record in Game Ten of the season, playing off back-to-back losses, are 13-0 SU and ATS versus a .750 or less opponent off a win or loss of less than ten points. Lay the points here tonight. Play On: Philadelphia Eagles

[Mr. IWS]

Youngstown Connection
Date: Sunday, November 22, 2009

NFL Play #1
Detroit -3 1PM Eastern
Line as of 330AM Eastern 11/22/09

[Mr. IWS]

Score Executive Club
400% Pitt
300% St Louis
300% Washington

[Mr. IWS]

budin
pats

[Mr. IWS]

SCORE

500 cinc
300 ind
300 sf

[Mr. IWS]

Dominic Fazzini
Saturday's play 30 Dime -- Steelers (minus points vs. CHIEFS)

STEELERS

Pittsburgh's offense had been on a roll before last week's 18-12 loss to Cincinnati, scoring at least 27 points for five straight games. But after not reaching the end zone against the Bengals, I think the Steelers should have no problem putting up points against Kansas City, which has given up an average of 30 points and 443.3 yards in its last three games at home.

The Chiefs also suck on offense, averaging just 15.8 points and 266.6 yards per game for the season. And now K.C. is without leading rusher Larry Johnson, who was released for his off-the-field behavior, and leading receiver Dwayne Bowe, who was suspended for testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.

That said, I can't imagine the Chiefs putting up many points against a Pittsburgh defense that allows just 17.4 points and 277.4 yards per game. The Steelers hold opponents to just 69.3 yards rushing per game and have allowed a league-low 11 touchdowns all season.

Kansas City is 0-4 straight up at Arrowhead Stadium this year, and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. Look for Ben Roethlisberger and Rashard Mendenhall to have big days as the Pittsburgh offense rolls up more than 27 points, and the Steelers' defense holds the Chiefs under 10 points. Take Pittsburgh to roll in this one.

5 Dime -- RAIDERS (plus points vs. Bengals)

RAIDERS

Has we seen the last of JaMarcus Russell in Oakland's starting lineup? Probably not, although you never know. One thing I know, however, is that the Raiders seem inspired to have Bruce Gradkowski taking snaps for today's game.

Now Gradkowski is not Tom Brady in waiting, not by any means. But the Oakland players had lost faith in Russell, and it showed in the team's performance. But I expect the Raiders to play an inspired game today in an attempt to try and turn their season around with a new leader on offense.

The Bengals are due for a bit of a letdown after beating the rival Steelers for the second time this season, and find themselves in the role of a road favorite, which is not a position they have seemed comfortable in in the past.

Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS overall as a favorite, 1-6 ATS as a road favorite, 1-10 ATS as a favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points, and 5-11 ATS against losing teams. I'm not saying the Raiders are going to win this game. I just think they're going to scare the hell out of the Bengals. Take Oakland to cover the points at home.

[Mr. IWS]

lenny "20 star" stevens

20 Oakland
20 Baltimore
10 Phila
10 NE
10 Washington

[Mr. IWS]

Delaneys 60 Dimer

Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

CRAIG DAVIS

Biggest nfl release of my career

first ever
100 dime
nfl underdog
game of the year

No, I'm not insane. My biggest NFL play of the season is on the hapless Oakland Raiders for a number of reasons. First I want you to know I'm not chasing a loss, because I've won the last two days and have won 20 of the last 27 days, including a few 50-dime winners and a 75-dime winner in college football a few weeks ago. This is a game I've been promoting since Monday when I first saw the point spreads. Anyone who has been following me knows I've been talking about this game for a while, and since the number is basically the same as it was then, I'm all over it and I'm suggesting that you should be too. Remember, I'm 10-3-1 with all my selections 75 Dimes and higher. I plan to make that 11-3-1 after today.



Bear with me as I offer a few explanations as to why I like the Raiders so much. First off, let's look at the Bengals. They are clearly the most surprising team in the AFC... yes, even more surprising than Denver at this point. They've beaten both the Ravens and Steelers TWICE this year and will have to completely melt down to NOT win the AFC North. They enter today's game off a grueling 18-12 win over the Steelers in Pittsburgh, and before that they handed the Ravens a 17-7 setback at home. In fact, this team has played three masterful games in a row, defensively, and are more than due for a huge letdown. No team in the NFL, no matter how good they are, can be "on" every single Sunday. Occasionally these NFL teams tend to "take the week off" in preparation for a team they know they should beat. This is one of those spots for Cincy. It's completely ridiculous to ask these guys to travel all the way across the country and be "fired up" to play a 2-7 Oakland team... especially after the type of emotional games they've had to endure recently.



Look back at October 4th @ Cleveland. The Bengals entered that game off wins against Pittsburgh, Green Bay and a near-win over Denver in the first week of the season. All three of those games were decided by 7 points or less and all came down to the wire. So they go to Cleveland, a team they knew they should beat, and it took every bit of overtime for them to get a 23-20 win. This is an identical situation to that one, only their traveling 3000 miles this time to play an Oakland team that, honestly, no one wants to play out there... especially Cincinnati. The Bengals are 0-9 all time in Oakland. That's right --- this franchise has NEVER beaten the Raiders on the road in 9 tries in franchise history. Their last loss came back in 2003, 23-20, and before that it was 1998, 27-10. I've always told you it's hard for a western team to go east and vice versa... even more so when a team has never won in the place they're going. Cincy will have its work cut out for them today, as I see this game going down to the wire.



The Bengals were completely clueless, offensively, last week when Cedric Benson left the game. They didn't score a single offensive touchdown the entire game, and QB Carson Palmer was very average, completing 18 of 30 passes for 178 yards and no touchdowns. Why do you think they picked up Larry Johnson? I think the Bengals are telling us Benson's injury might be worse than first thought and they don't really trust rookie Bernard Scott (13 for 33 last week). The reason this is important is because if the Raiders have a weakness on defense it's against the run. That plays right into our hands today because it was going to take someone like Benson for the Bengals to have any consistency in the running game against Oakland. Even against the Raiders I don't see Scott running for more than about 3 yards per carry... and why should we... he's a rookie getting his first start (most likely). And as good as Cincy's pass game has been so far this season, I'm not sure they've seen a pass defense quite as good as what they're going to see today.



Oakland allows just 190 yards per game through the air at home, and having faced QBs like Philip Rivers and Donovan McNabb, that's saying a lot. As you know I'm big into fantasy football, and the Raiders rank 6th in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. That means they don't, on average, allow much yardage and they rarely surrender passing TDs. No reason to think that changes today. The way to beat Oakland is to run it down their throats... and it's no surprise that the Raiders defense ranks 29th against fantasy RBs. Obviously, that means running backs are gouging this team for yards and TDs, much more so than QBs. And again, that helps us tremendously because I have absolutely no faith in Bernard Scott, Brian Leonard or even Larry Johnson. Mark my words... the Bengals will have trouble moving the ball on most drives because of these factors.



If you look at all of Oakland's home games this year, you'll see an eerie similarity in the games in which they were hammered (23-3 to Denver and 38-0 to the NY Jets) and the games they competed (13-9 win over Philly, 24-20 loss to San Diego, and 16-10 loss to Kansas City). In their two blowout losses, the Raiders allowed both the Broncos and Jets to run for over 200 yards as a team. In the tighter games, the running games were limited and the scores were obviously more competitive because Oakland can play pass defense with anyone in the league. Trust me, Chad Ochocinco is going to have his hands full with Nnamdi Asomugha... and with him expected to be limited (see last week) in that matchup, that leaves Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell to pick up the slack. Remember, the Bengals lost Chris Henry two weeks ago and won't have his services in the passing game the rest of the season. That's a bigger loss than many people really understand... and it's going to show it's ugly head again today. Bottom line: Cincinnati will struggle to move the ball much of the day.

[Mr. IWS]

Score Executive Club

400% Pitt
300% St Louis
300% Washington

SCORE

400% Cinci
300% Indy and San Fran

[Mr. IWS]

GAMEDAY
3 NYG
2 NE
1 Balt
1 TN