11-26-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers

cowboys -13.5

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel

20* Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog

Game: New York Giants at Denver (Thursday 11/26 8:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: Denver +6.5 (-110)

Denver hit a low last week. After a 6-0 start, they have lost four in a row, the last game a 32-3 drubbing that allowed San Diego to take over the division lead - something that seemed unthinkable when they owned a 3.5 game lead just four weeks ago. They have been outscored 117-37 over their losing streak. Even during their winning streak, Denver didn't get much support from the oddsmakers or public. After four weeks of horrid football, no one wants to touch them. The oddsmakers had to open them as a big home dog, and the public has pushed the line even higher. I believe Denver is ready to make a stand. New York comes in here off a win, but is this team really deserving of a TD-road favorite role? Before last week's win, the Giants had lost four in a row. They haven't covered the spread in five straight games. And, even in the win their defense gave up 31 points. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 164 points - 32.8 per game! That's just the kind of defense that Denver needs to face right now. Coming in off a very short week, it's not likely that New York was able to remedy what ails them defensively. So there's no reason to expect a major change this week. Antonio Pierce is still out and that only makes matters worse for the G-Men defense. On offense, the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw. With Brandon Jacobs having a bad year, and coming off a leg injury, don't expect the Giants to run the ball particularly well, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked 7th in the league in points allowed. Give me the home team with the much better defense, getting a touchdown.

[Mr. IWS]

Kyle Bales
Have a Happy Thanksgiving and enjoy today's card on us!

15* Texas Longhorns -21

10* Oakland Raiders +13.5

10* Denver Broncos +7

5* Green Bay Packers -11

5* Butler Bulldogs +1

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

“The Magnificent 7” Week of November 27th-28th, 2009

6 Unit Play. #69 Take Oklahoma State +9 ½ over Oklahoma (Saturday 12:30 pm FSN) Rivalry Game of the Year. Both teams could be playing without their quarterback for this game. However, QB Robinson will likely see action. He did dress last week but was held out since they were playing a weak opponent in Colorado. QB Bradford has been out for most of the season and the Sooners are just not explosive with him out of the line-up. 1st and Ten. The Cowboys have a lot more to play for in this game as a win here will likely mean a BCS bid. Coach Gundy and his seniors have never beaten Oklahoma but this is the first time they have better talent. The Cowboys are really playing defense this season and have not allowed a 100 yard rusher all year. They currently rank 6th in the nation in rush defense.

Being blown out last week against Texas Tech leads some to believe that the Sooners have packed it in for the 2009 season. I do not believe that is the case, but the Cowboys will give them all that they can handle. Ok State 24, Oklahoma 21.

5 Unit Play. #28 Take Colorado +10 over Nebraska (Friday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. One might consider this as a bowl game for Colorado since this could be the last game for Coach Hawkins. 1st and Ten. The Buffaloes played well against the Cowboys last Thursday on the road. This is the last home game of the season for the Buffaloes and expect their seniors to go all out.

Nebraska will be looking ahead to Texas next week for the championship game. They have won three straight games, but have been outgained in two of those victories. They will not be up for this game and Colorado wants this game badly. Coach Hawkins enjoys an upset in a low-scoring affair. Colorado 21, Nebraska 17.

4 Unit Play. #18 Take Ohio U +3 over Temple (Friday 11 am ESPN U) The winner of this game will represent the MAC East in Detroit next week and play Central Michigan. Temple has had an unbelievable season thus far and Coach Golden will likely be named the MAC Coach of the Year. The Owls have now played ten straight weeks and this will be a tough game, especially since they are a favorite on the road. Sensational RB Pierce will be out for Temple and that leaves a major void in their offense.

The Bobcats will be looking for revenge after losing 14-10 in 2008. A note on that game: Ohio was playing their third straight road game. 1st and Ten. A lot of seniors play for the Bobcats, especially on defense, and they will end the regular season on a high note. Ohio U 24, Temple 20.

4 Unit Play. #25 Take Nevada +14 over Boise State (Friday 10 pm ESPN 2) What a game this should be and it could go over the posted total by halftime. Boise State is playing as good as anyone in the country. However, they have more talent than most of the teams in the WAC. Their only real tests came early in the season against Oregon and Fresno State.

Nevada started the season 0-3 with their opening loss to Notre Dame carrying over into their next two games. Since then, Nevada has been on a tear, winning eight straight games. The last two meetings between these two teams have been close with the 2007 game going into 4 OTs, with Boise State winning, 69-67. Nevada has lost the last nine games to Boise State straight-up, but this year they have the talent to keep up with them. Getting double digits it too good to pass up and this will be tight throughout and go down to the wire. Boise State 42, Nevada 38.

4 Unit Play. #37 Take Illinois +20 ½ over Cincinnati (Friday 12 pm ABC) Top Big Ten Play. A rare non-conference game featuring BCS teams takes place Friday in Cincinnati. It has been a disappointing year for the Illini to say the least. They brought back a large nucleus and were expected to challenge for a Big Ten title. Despite this poor season, it appears Coach Zook will return next season.

As for the Bearcats, they will enter undefeated and what a great job Coach Kelly has done. Many believe that he is in line for the Notre Dame job. As bad as Illinois has looked at times, the talent is still there. Yet another team with a lot of seniors and a win here would salvage their season. This is a perfect spot to play against Cincinnati since they still have to beat Pittsburgh next week to clinch the Big East. Illinois will either get blown out or take it down to the wire. Pride will allow them to do the latter. Cincy 31, Illinois 21.

4 Unit Play. #80 Take Houston -29 ½ over Rice (Saturday 8 pm CSS) I realize that this is a lot of points to be laying in a cross-town rivalry game. However, this year’s Cougars completely out talent the Owls. Granted, Rice has played well the last two weeks. They did beat UTEP but were outgained by 150 yards.

Houston will be looking for revenge after losing, 56-42, in 2008. That loss kept Houston from winning the CUSA West. QB Keenum threw five touchdowns last week and looks for more of the same in this affair. Houston gets close to sixty and we collect in the process as well. Houston 56, Rice 20.

4 Unit Play. #95 Take Arizona -3 over Arizona State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Normally would not go with a team coming off a heartbreaking game that kept them from going to the Rose Bowl. But this is a state rival and the U of A will have no problem getting up for this game in Tempe. ASU lost to UCLA last week and that made sure that they will be home for the holidays. Speaking of staying home, the injury report for the Sun Devils cold fill up a roster. Parlay that with the fact that Arizona is still not solid at quarterback and it is hard not to like the Wildcats. Arizona still has a chance to go to the Holiday Bowl and look for them to easily put away their rivals. U of A 28, ASU 20.

5 Unit Play. #120 Take Tennessee -2 over Arizona (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Week. The Titans have been a new team since Vince Young started calling plays under center and will enter this game having won four straight. The Cardinals have all but locked up the NFC West and will be making their second straight long road trip, having played at St. Louis last week. Arizona is 5-0 on the road this season but that is fools gold and most of that came against weak teams. They will face Minnesota next week and that game means much more to them than this one. The Titans continue to roll and we will collect big in the process as well. Tennessee 27, Arizona 20.

4 Unit Play. #104 Take Over 46 in Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Totals Play. We have used the over in the Falcons the last two weeks and collected and we fully expect to complete the trifecta on Sunday with another high-scoring game. The Falcons are still banged up at the running back position and thus will likely have to move the ball through the air. That sets up a perfect play with the over with numerous clock stoppages. The Falcons have been terrible on defense allowing 62 points in their last two games. Play the over and watch your money grow. ATL 34, Tampa Bay 17.

4 Unit Play. #128 Take New Orleans -3 over New England (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Patriots are getting too much respect and this writer is certainly not buying into them just yet. They face an undefeated Saints squad in the Big Easy, and are just a field goal dog? That is not right, since New Orleans is 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. DC Williams has turned around the Saints defense 180 degrees and this unit can now hold their own. 1st and Ten. Throw in QB Brees and a high powered offense and you will hear from this team for quite some time. This line is way too low and we will collect big in the process as well. New Orleans 37, New England 30.

Strong Opinion Plays:
#24 Take Auburn +10 over Alabama
#50 Take Kentucky +3 over Tennessee

#10 Take Denver +7 over NY Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco

INTER-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR

Broncos

5 Dime Release

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

3* Dallas
2* Dallas/Oakland Under
2* Denver

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

GB OVER

[Mr. IWS]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G

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6* W ido w W iseg uy 2 0 0 9 NFL T hur sday G AM E OF THE Y EA R on D env er B ron cos +7(-105 at bodog)

The Denver Broncos should not be catching this many points at home on Thursday. Yes, they have lost 4 straight and have been blown out in the process, but now the value is clearly on Denver. This team is still 6-4 and right in the middle of the playoff race, and we feel this short week should help them get over their loss to the Chargers very quickly and to get back on the winning track. They host a New York Giants' team that has also struggled, going 1-4 in their last 5 games and needing a field goal in overtime to beat the Falcons at home last week. New York is getting way too much respect here from the odds makers, and we'll capitalize. The Giants have a very long list of injuries right now, and they are playing without their defensive leader in MLB Antonio Pierce. Without him, they gave up 31 points to the Falcons last week. They also have plenty of injuries in their defensive secondary, which will allow Kyle Orton and company to have a big day through the air. The Giants have given up 21 or more points in 5 straight games, and they are allowing an average of 32.8 points/game during this span. In their last 2 road games, the Giants lost 27-48 at New Orleans and 17-40 at Philadelphia. Once again, it's hard to imagine how they could possibly be a touchdown favorite on the road with the evidence presented. The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Denver is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. Take Denver and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club

3 Texas under 63
4 GB -11.5
3 NYG -6

[Mr. IWS]

A Redd

15 dimes
gb
dal
nyg

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett 30 DIMER - NY GIANTS.....10 DIMER - TEXAS A&M AGGIES 30 DIMER - NY GIANTS

The thought of Kyle Orton hobbling around with his gimpy ankle, or the thought of Chris Simms out there trying to get back into playing shape does not instill confidence in this Denver team that is sinking like a lead balloon.

Denver is now on an 0-4 straight up, and against the spread slide since starting the season at 6-0.

New York stopped their 4-game slide, but failed to cover as they blew a 14-point lead in the 4th quarter against the Falcons on Sunday. Still, Eli Manning threw for nearly 400 yards last week, and with the Broncos defense starting to stay on the field a little too long these days, have to believe the Giants who are 13-5 against the spread their last 18 as a road favorite are the play in this game minus the number.

10 DIMER - TEXAS A&M AGGIES

Texas best be on guard at College Station, as the undefeated Longhorns have dropped their last pair of decisions versus the spread at A&M, inlcuding an outright upset loss to the Aggies in 2007.

Texas A&M has gone 5-1 straight up at home this season, and 4-1-1 against the spread in their 6 home games this year.

The Aggies definitely have enough offense to stay inside of this roomy impost, and pride is a strong motivator when you are getting around 3 touchdowns on your home turf.

Take the Aggies plus the points

[Mr. IWS]

GoodFella | NFL Side Thu, 11/26/09 - 4:15 PM
double-dime bet 106 DAL -13.5 (-110) BetUS vs 105 OAK
Analysis:

I really like Dallas in this spot, and the fact that Oakland beat the Bengals last week REALLY makes me like this play even more. Dallas had to eek out a win AT HOME vs a not very good Washington team last week, and did not look good doing so. None of that bothers me one bit. We have a Dallas team who play*ed AT HOME last week, as Oakland has to travel on a short week & try and prepare for Dallas who almost always put forth a top-notch effort on Turkey Day. I really look for the Cowboys 8th ranked rushing attack to have major success vs this Oakland defense which ranks 30th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 158 YPG. Dallas will wear down Oakland in the 2nd half, and I look for some big plays off play action by Romo mixed in with the run game. Not a good spot for the Raiders here, and I look for the Cowboys to win by 20. Lay the points with the Cowboys fellas.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

100* Steam – Detroit +11 (NFL)

50* Dallas (NFL)

100* NYG/DEN under (NFL)

200* Det/GB over (NFL)

200* Texas/Texas AM over (NCAAF)

50* Chi/Utah under (NBA)

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

[103-104] 4* Green Bay Packers/Detroit Lions UNDER 47.5 -110 | 12:30p ET

[108] 4* Denver Broncos +6 -110 | 8:20p ET

[502] 4* Atlanta Hawks -2.5 -110 or better | 8:00p ET | with or without Bibby in lineup

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso:

50 Unit Giants -5.5
10 Unit Texas -21
10 Unit Packers -11.5

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports

Todays Selections

NFL
2 (**) Green Bay -11
2 (**) Oakland +13.5
2 (**) Denver +6.5

NCAA Football
2 (**)) Texas -21

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Financial Package

Dallas
GB/Det Over

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams

1500? INTERCONFERENCE
DEAD MORTAL LOCK

Dallas Cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Kavitch aka Gamebreaker

Thursday, November 26, 2009


8:20 PM
Denver
NY Giants

Spread Pick
Picked Denver with spread of +6 (-109)
100 units were wagered.


Good time for Denver to fight hard in prime time. They have the big losing streak but they've run into the wrong teams at the wrong time and injuries at QB have hurt. The Giants don't deserve to be laying this many on the road and were an OT field goal away from continuing their long losing streak. What I like is the poorer play of the Giants D recently and that will allow the Broncos to earn the cover as a prime time home dog. Denver +6 for a 4* play.

4:15 PM
Dallas
Oakland

Spread Pick
Picked Dallas with spread of -13.5 (-105)
100 units were wagered.


A rare big fav but last week's results set up perfectly for it. Oakland caught Cincy at the perfect time and are now travelling on a short week after pulling the upset. Travelling off that kind of win for an inconsistent team is often a train wreck in the following week and it magnifies it with a short week and being a west coast team. The Dallas D has enough to seriously limit the Raiders while the Dallas running game is in a great spot to pound the Raiders and let this team make a statement in front of a national audience. Good running opens up the passing game and I think all this combined gets the Cowboys a lopsided win. Just one other note. After the Raider upset and the Dallas stinker last week, I really feel like the oddsmaker is laying a trap opening the Raiders as a 2 TD underdog. It's done a good job to split the action so far but there are reasons for every number that gets set. Take Dallas for a 3* regular play.

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan

Ai Simulator 25* graded play on Detroit as they face the Green Bay Packers set to start on Thanksgiving Day at 12:30 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Detroit will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone an incredible 25-1 ATS since 1999. Play on home teams after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games and is a terrible team sporting a win percentage of <=25% playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. The SU record of this system is an amazing 17-10 and 48% of these plays have covered the spread by 7 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 24-7 for 77% winners since 1983. 50% of these plays covered the spread by 8 or more points. It is very rare that any system approaches a 50% 7 or greater cover level so these are two rare and very supportive systems for this play. Green Bay has never been a good investment when favored by 10 or more points. Note that they are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992. AIS also shows a 93% probability that Detroit will allow 250 to 300 net passing yards in this game. Note that over the past 3 seasons Detroit is a strong 8-1 ATS when allowing 250 to 300 net passing yards. The Lions offense took flight last week. Stafford will not start, but Daunte Culpepper is starting and will certainly want to show the league he can still play. Last week’s offensive performance was a complete team effort and I do not see much drop off – if any at all – with Culpepper behind center. Take Detroit.




Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Dallas as they take on Oakland set to start at 4:15 EST. AiS shows an 82% probability that Dallas will win this game by 14 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 25-7 ATS over the past 5 seasons. Play on favorites when playing on a Thursday. Here is a 2nd supporting system proven by the test of 27 years. It has produced a record of 159-102 ATS for 61% winners since 1983. Play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog after the first month of the season. Oakland is in a series of poor roles while Dallas in a series of strong ones for this game. Oakland is an imperfect 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return over the last 2 seasons; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus excellent punt coverage teams allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992; 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in road games versus poor passing defenses allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse since 1992; 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Dallas is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/att. since 1992; 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games vs. awful passing teams averaging 5.2 or less passing yards/attempt in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=285 yards/game in the second half of the season since 1992; 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games versus poor offensive teams averaging <=4.75 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. Dallas has failed to score in the past 2 weeks like a conference leader, but the matchups certainly favor a big output in this game. Oakland won last week led by QB Bruce Gradkowski, but they will struggle to score points against a Dallas defense that is playing quite well. He was successful at getting the WR involved in the game last week against the unfocused Bengals. This week will be far tougher as Dallas has two outstanding corners in man coverage. They are Mike ******* and Terence Newman. Let’s not forget too that the Raiders rank 30th in 3rd down conversions at 27.9% and I don’t see them even converting 25% in this game. Romo has struggled to connect and has the third worst completion percentage in the league and ranks 2nd with 62 “poor throws”. I believe a lot of this has occurred as the OC Garrett has chosen to change the schemes and routes somewhat in an attempt to make film study of their previous games meaningless. They will pound the ball and then use play action pass to set-up scoring strikes. Take Dallas.

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: New York Giants @ Denver Broncos - Thursday November 26, 2009 8:20 pm
Pick: 5 units ATS: Denver Broncos +7 (-130)

Denver hit a low last week. After a 6-0 start, they have lost four in a row, the last game a 32-3 drubbing that allowed San Diego to take over the division lead - something that seemed unthinkable when they owned a 3.5 game lead just four weeks ago. They have been outscored 117-37 over their losing streak. Even during their victorious streak, Denver didn't get much support from the oddsmakers or public. After four weeks of horrid football, no one wants to touch them. The oddsmakers had to open them as a big home dog, and the public has pushed the line even higher. I believe Denver is ready to make a stand. New York comes in here off a win, but is this team really deserving of a TD-road favorite role? Before last week's win, the Giants had lost four in a row. They haven't covered the spread in five straight games. And, even in the win their defense gave up 31 points. Over the past five games, this defense has allowed 164 points - 32.8 per game! That's just the kind of defense that Denver needs to face right now. Coming in off a very short week, it's not likely that New York was able to remedy what ails them defensively. So there's no reason to expect a major change this week. Antonio Pierce is still out and that only makes matters worse for the G-Men defense. On offense, the Giants will be without Ahmad Bradshaw. With Brandon Jacobs having a bad year, and coming off a leg injury, don't expect the Giants to run the ball particularly well, especially against a Denver defense that is ranked 7th in the league in points allowed. Give me the home team with the much better defense, getting a touchdown.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony Weston
THURSDAY'S PLAYS 25 Dime Giants
5 Dime Raiders


Giants at Broncos
GIANTS - While it may have started a little later than most people figured, the Denver Broncos are in the midst of a downward spiral that has seen the team lose 4 consecutive games SU and ATS.

After starting the year a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS the Broncos seem to have come back to reality. Tonight, against the visiting New York Giants, who themselves have seen the good and bad this year, Denver will struggle once again.

The Broncos started the season 3-0 SU and ATS at home, beating the Browns, Cowboys and Patriots by an average of 10.3 points per game (21.3-11).

Since then, the Broncos have played just two games at home, but have looked horrible in both games, losing 28-10 to the Steelers then 32-3 to the Chargers this last Sunday (That’s 60-13 or 30-6.5 for those of you counting).

On this current four-game skid the Broncos have lost by an average of 20 points per game and now battle a Giants team that’s 3-2 SU and ATS on the road this year and is 2-1 SU and ATS against the AFC West, outscoring the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers, on average, 30.3-14.6.

The Giants will hand the Broncos another loss and cruise to an easy victory.



Raiders at Cowboys
RAIDERS - Overall this season the Dallas Cowboys may be 7-3 SU, but they haven’t done much in the money making category as they’re only 5-5 ATS.

And even though the Raiders are just 3-7 SU this year, they will cover on the road at the new Dallas Palace.

Consider that coming into this game the Cowboys have gone just 1-1 SU their last 2 games and have failed to cover in each of those, losing outright 17-7 as a 3-point favorite at Green Bay a couple of weeks ago then narrowly beating the Redskins 7-6 at home as an 11-point favorite this last Sunday.

For the season, Dallas is outscoring its opponents by 10 points per game at home (26.8-16.8), which may be good some days, but not when you’re laying about 13 1/2 points. Overall this season, the Cowboys are only beating their opponents by about 6 points per game (23.1-17.5).

The Raiders, on the other hand, come into today’s game 3-2 ATS their last 5 games, including covers in each 3 of their last 4 when installed as an underdog. For the year, Oakland is 3-1 ATS when catching double digits.

The Raiders are coming off a 20-17 outright win against the Bengals, who were installed as a 9-point favorite this last Sunday. That win came mainly due to the fact that JaMarcus Russell is no longer the starting quarterback of the Raiders, who have now turned to Bruce Gradkowski.

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
30 Dime --- COWBOYS

15 Dime --- 3 Team, 10-point Teaser: PACKERS, BRONCOS and TEXAS A&M

DALLAS COWBOYS --- Were you a little shocked when this line came out at 13 1/2? I gotta admit, I was too. But that's why Vegas is a billion dollar industry... because they have professionals setting these lines so incredibly tight that it's nearly impossible for them not to make money. After the way the Cowboys played the last two weeks combined with Oakland's miracle, come-from-behind win over Cincy last week (my 100-dime NFL underdog game of the year, by the way), I figured this number would be somewhere in the neighborhood of what the Packers/Lions line was. Boy was I wrong. But in all reality, I'm glad. I don't like it when a game seems too easy. If Dallas were favored by 10, it would seem like a gift, and Vegas doesn't hand out gifts.

This line looks nearly impossible for the Cowboys to cover, which gives me all the reason in the world to think I'm on the right side. Forget what happened last week vs. Washington's #1-rated pass defense. Forget what happened two weeks ago in Lambeau. And forget Oakland's win over the Eagles and Bengals (both at home). I want you to focus on these two teams, as a whole. Dallas' offense vs. Oakland's defense... especially their 30th-ranked run defense. I want you to imagine Marion Barber and Felix Jones running for 6, 7, and 8 yards per carry. Oakland, who might be without Pro Bowl DE Richard Seymour, simply can't stop the run. Just ask Bernard Scott, the rookie RB from Cincinnati. Now imagine Dallas' defense... a defense that allowed just 6 points to Washington, 17 to Green Bay (though 14 points were set up deep in Dallas territory by turnovers), and 16 to Philadelphia, vs. the Oakland offense. Oakland's offense averages just 10 PPG... FOR THE SEASON.

Bruce Gradkowski did a serviceable job last week of leading his team on the game-tying drive, but let's be honest... he's not Rich Gannon. He's not even Terry Gannon. And now he starts his first road game in a very loud stadium on a surface the Raiders aren't familiar with. In fact, just once this year have the Raiders played on the "fake stuff"... the other game resulted in a 44-7 loss to the NY Giants in the Meadowlands. I'm expecting something similar today. Maybe the Cowboys don't reach 44, but the Raiders won't score more than 10-13 points, meaning we only need between 24 and 28 points to get the cover. No problem. Dallas averages 27 PPG at home while the Raiders allow 27 PPG on the road... so I think it's safe to say the Cowboys are going to push the 27-point plateau. And last I checked, the Cowboys love to play on Turkey Day. Not only do they have a winning record on this great holiday, they've absolutely rolled their last three opponents by a combined 106-22 score. They pounded the Bucs 38-10 back in 2006, the Jets 34-3 in 2007, and the Seahawks 34-9 last year. Notice the pattern? Over 30 points in each of their last three Thanksgiving Day games, while holding their opponents to 10 points or less. Do you see any differences in today's opponent and the last three results? I don't. Cowboys roll.

3-TEAM, 10-POINT TEASER (GREEN BAY, DENVER, TEXAS A&M) --- Let's have a little fun with a holiday three-team teaser. We're betting the Packers down to near a pick 'em, and it's absolutely crazy to think they won't beat the Lions SU. They have so much more to play for than Detroit right now and they appear much healthier... at least on the offensive side of the ball. QB Matthew Stafford won't play after separating his left shoulder in last week's game while WR Calvin Johnson is going to be a game-time decision. That's pretty much the entire offense, other than a few decent runs from RB Kevin Smith. True, Green Bay does have a few dings and bruises on the defensive side, but I'm not sure it's going to matter who plays against this depleted offense.

Denver is simply getting too many points when you tease them up to +16 as I just absolutely do not see them losing another home game by double digits. Pittsburgh and San Diego have been the last two teams to come to Denver and absolutely pummel them... and it's simply not going to happen again. These guys didn't start the season 6-0 for nothing. They still have a lot of talent and heart, and a defensive leader in Brian Dawkins who simply won't let them come out flat again. This game is the season for Denver. If they lose, they are skating on thin ice to even be considered as a viable Wild Card option... because Kansas City isn't beating San Diego this weekend and Denver needs to hold on with every inch of their lives to stay within a game of the Chargers. Denver can run the ball better than you might think, so they really don't need a 100% healthy Kyle Orton. All I'm asking is for them to keep this thing close with a very shaky defense to give us part II of our 3-team teaser.

And finally, the college football rivalry game between Texas and Texas A&M. Always tend to lean towards the home underdog in big-time rivalry games, especially when we can tease them up and get them at something like +31. Though I realize Texas is clearly the superior team, there's two reasons I think the Aggies can keep it close. First, the home field advantage at Kyle Field is unlike many other stadiums in America. When the Aggie fans get going, the place literally shakes. It's going to be tough for Colt McCoy to hear the plays being called in, and being a night game, it's going to give the Aggie faithful a full day to get full on turkey and booze. They'll be nice and sauced by the time the game kicks off, adding even more rowdy noise to an already loud venue. Texas has dropped the last two games ATS when visiting College Station, including a SU loss back in 2007. The Ags are 5-1 SU at home and 4-1-1 ATS in their six games played there this season. Secondly, Texas A&M clearly has the offense to keep this game in "track meet" mode. QB Jerrod Johnson actually has better numbers than Colt McCoy as he's tossed 24 TD passes as opposed to just 5 INTs. McCoy has 23 TD passes and 9 INTs. Though their defense is somewhat of a joke, the Texas A&M offense can both run and throw rather effectively, and knowing we have 31 points to play with, I'm very comfortable backing the home team playing for pride and a somewhat decent bowl game. Aggies lose, but keep it within 31.

[Mr. IWS]

Marco D'Angelo
double-dime bet 106 DAL -13.5 (-110) BetUS vs 105 OAK

Has Dallas winning by 17 or more. TAKE DALLAS as MARCO'S NFL TURKEY DAY MASSACRE.

Marco Rated this Play a 4* PLAY on his Executive Late Phone Service

[Mr. IWS]

northcoast

cowboys
denver
greenbay
texas
cowboys over

[Mr. IWS]

blazer

3 cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

NORTHCOAST PHONES

NC 2 Dallas Marq Denver
Opinions on GB, Over Dallas and Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Vernon Croy

Thanksgiving Bookie Buster (7-2 NFL Run)

3* Take Denver ATS

We are getting very good line value here with Denver Thursday night even with the injuries that they have and this pick falls into one of my top NFL systems. The Broncos just lost badly at home to the Chargers because of turnovers and they have now lost 3 straight because of turnovers and mental mistakes but I look for them to bounce back big at home against the Giants Thursday. The Giants have struggled defensively over their last 3 games with opponents 30.7 ppg against them and they have also struggled on the road this season with opponents averaging 27 ppg against them. Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games as an underdog and the Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. I look for Denver to have a strong showing against the Giants this week. Grab the points with the Broncos as my NFL Bookie Buster for Thursday night

[Mr. IWS]

Feist
5* GRB
Inner Circle TEX A&M
Platinum DENVER Broncos

[Mr. IWS]

Boooj

50 unit Green Bay -11.5
10 unit over 40 Dallas
15 unit Denver +6.5

[Mr. IWS]

executive 200 det hoops

[Mr. IWS]

SIXTH SENSE

Opinions

Green Bay -10.5 DETROIT 48
GREEN BAY 33 DETROIT 23


DALLAS -13.5 Oakland 40
DALLAS 27 OAKLAND 10


NY Giants -6.5 DENVER 42
NY GIANTS 27 DENVER 21

[Mr. IWS]

RAS
Portland+5
S ALA-4

[Mr. IWS]

FRANK PATRON
20000 UNIT NFL LOCK
NY GIANTS -6

[Mr. IWS]

special k

7* #517 MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS @ + 1 1/2

[Mr. IWS]

sMOOTH sPORTS tALK
ALL PLAYS ARE TOP-RATED

NFL
NFL
12:30PM EST
PLAY OF THE DAY: DETROIT +12
TOP PLAY: DETROIT MONEYLINE +545
The entire world is riding the Packers hard and why shouldn’t they?? Afterall, the Pack already beat the Lions 26-0 five weeks ago and since that win seems to be rolling again winning 3 of their L5. Additionally, the Lions will be without Stafford who injured his shoulder Sunday on the game’s final winning drive. But what I find interesting is that knowing the Pack won 26-0 as a 14 point fave and that Stafford is out oddsmakers opened the line at just 10.5 knowing the public would pound the Packers and they did, and continue to!! And I would like to take this opportunity to thank Mr. Public for doing so!! Folks, as cited during preseason Culpepper is in the best game shape he seen in years so I don’t look at Stafford being out as a negative. Additionally, this Packers team is very banged up and the short week only hurts their cause!! I believe the Lions can not only hang with them but can bring back some of they magic they used to provide us on Thanksgiving Day!! It seems like it’s been forever since the Lions won on this day but today those fortunes could change!! It is worth noting the home team has dominated this series covering 17 of L25!! It is also worth noting the Packers are just 1-12 L13 as a fave of 11 points or more!! Give me a Detroit in a shocker!! For more see Fading the Public

PREDICTION: DETROIT 24 GREEN BAY 23




4:15PM EST
TOP PLAY: DALLAS -13 -120
As many of you know I LOVE MY DOGS and rarely, if EVER, will lay DDs in the NFL. However, today is the exception!! Dallas is coming off that dramatic 7-6 win over the Skins last week while the Raiders are coming off a dramatic win of their own over the Bengals, a game I called as my NFL Dog of the Month!! However, as good as that Raiders game set up for us on Sunday is how bad it is for the Raiders today!! First, they are coming off a SU win as a DD dog and teams in this spot historically have failed miserably, especially on the ROAD! Next, the Raiders are traveling on a short week and this is never good and even more so when you are coming off such an emotional win. And lastly, the Raiders are going on the road with Gradkowski at the helm making his first road start of the season. Look for the Cowboys defense to simply be too much for the Raiders and for Romo and Company to have a huge day!! It also helps knowing the Raiders are a PERFECT 0-6 ATS L6 after covering 2 of their L3 games. Additionally, the Cowboys have feasted on teams that are offensively challenged going 12-3 ATS in their L15 against offenses who average 285 yards or less per game!!
PREDICTION: DALLAS 31 OAKLAND 10


CFB
PENDING

NBA
PENDING

CBB
12:00PM EST
CREIGHTON +7

2:30PM EST
XAVIER -5 -120

4:30PM EST
CLEMSON -6

[Mr. IWS]

Mark lawerence

dallas -13.5

[Mr. IWS]

wunderdog

under green bay 4units

[Mr. IWS]

northcost Plays Phill SteeL

T/o Green Bay / Over

2* Dallas Play The Over

T/o Denver Play The Under

College Play

Texas / Play The Over

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops
5* Clemson -6 **POD**
4* Detroit Lions +11.5
4* Dallas Cowboys -13.5

[Mr. IWS]

VR

*** NFL "PRIME-TIME" 3* DOG OF THE DAÀY ***

BODOG is using +12...VR


double-dime bet 105 OAK 14.0 (-110) Bodog vs 106 DAL
Analysis:

** NFL 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

Go a¼head and take it up to +14 if you can't get it by Kick-Off...Most locals should get there, VR...

[Mr. IWS]

SCORE
300%
green bay
texas am

[Mr. IWS]

Malinsky

4* Detroit +10.5

[Mr. IWS]

wunderdog

Game: Marquette vs. Xavier (2:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 151.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)

[Mr. IWS]

Chris James Sports

2* Dallas Cowboys -13.5

2* South Alabama -5

[Mr. IWS]

Helmut

FSU o139
CLEM o148.5

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Richenbach

10* denver
8* oak
7* a&m
8* houston coll hoops
8* hawks nba

[Mr. IWS]

Nick Parsons

NEW YORK GIANTS -6.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the visitors:

Eli Manning had his strongest day of the year, completing 25-of-39 passes for a season-high 384 yards with three TD's and an INT to get Big Blue back into the win column in last weeks 34-31 OT victory over Atlanta, and now with the monkey off their collective backs, I expect New York, and especially Manning, to settle down and return to form.

Of concern obviously is the Giants defense, but it will have a chance to redeem itself against Kyle Orton and the floundering Broncos. Despite their recent slide, and injuries, New York still has the second ranked pass defense in the league (177.4 ypg)

It's true the Giants are 0-5 ATS their last five overall, but this is a team that knows how to win on the road; 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games on the road.

On the other side of the field: The wheels have fallen off for the Broncos and I look for this team to continue to struggle. They've lost four straight and haven't scored an offensive TD in dropping their last two at Invesco Field.

After allowing just 11 points per game during their 6-0 start, the Broncos have given up more than 29 per outing during their four-game slide.

It comes as no surprise then to find that Denver is 1-4 ATS its last five and 3-9-1 ATS its last 13 in front of the hometown crowd.

Bottom line: I saw nothing in the Broncos game against the Chargers which would suggest they are on the cusp of regaining their form and expect Manning to be the focal point of this game; look for the GIANTS to move to a perfect 2-0 ATS as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 7 points and for the Broncos to fall to 1-3 ATS as a dog of 3 1/2 to 9 1/2 points! 9* GIANTS.

[Mr. IWS]

Rocketman

DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5

Oakland is 2-8 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Oakland is scoring 10.8 points per game overall and 10.5 points per game on the road this year. Oakland is allowing 26.7 points per game on the road this year. Dallas is scoring 26.8 points per game at home this year. Raiders are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a ATS win. Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf. Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games. Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 12. Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games in November. Cowboys are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. Cowboys are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Cowboys are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games on fieldturf. We'll play Dallas for 5 units today!

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond

Raiders/Cowboys OVER 40.5

When OAKLAND RAIDERS played as a road team - Won Last Game by 3 Points or Less; the OVER is 14-6-0 for the Raiders in this role.

Forecast: Dallas 26 Oakland 16

[Mr. IWS]

Evan Altemus

Giants/Broncos OVER 42

Both of these teams have defenses that have been surprisingly porous lately. The Giants defense has been torched in their last five games by Arizona, San Diego, New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, despite having leads in three of those games. They were unable to come up with stops in games against San Diego, Atlanta, and Arizona, despite having the game on the line. Now they have to travel on the road against a Denver team that will have their starting quarterback, Kyle Orton, back for the full game. He is so critical to this team having any offensive success, and they were able to move the ball once he entered the game last week. However, the Broncos fell behind by too much for him to have an impact. In fact, the game could have taken a completely different turn if back-up running back Knowshon Moreno wouldn’t have fumbled at the goal line. Meanwhile, the Giants offense is having no problems moving the ball, as Eli Manning has fully recovered from his foot injury from earlier in the season. I expect them to move the ball at will against a Broncos defense that allowed San Diego, one of the worst running teams in football, to move the ball at will against them with their running back. Safety Brian Dawkins is banged up for this game, and will likely be severely limited even if he does play. I expect this game to be surprisingly higher scoring and go over the total.

3 UNIT SELECTION OVER.

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

DALLAS COWBOYS -13.5

While he and his team's December struggles are well noted, Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been outstanding in the month of November compiling a 14-1 SU record. He has been particularly effective on Thanksgiving Day, winning all three starts, while throwing for 832 yards and 10 touchdown passes. Last year, we cashed our #1 Turkey Day play on the Cowboys, a 34-9 winner over Seattle as 12-point favorites. This year, we find them in a similar price range against a much worse Raiders team. Yes, Oakland is off a shocking outright win over the previously 7-2 Bengals, but they were quite fortunate to emerge victorious. They tied the game on a late TD pass and then recovered a fumble on the ensuing kickoff and turned it into the game-winning field goal. The Silver and Black had just two previous wins on its resume and note how poorly they have performed off the pair of victories. In Week 3, they were blown out by the Broncos 23-3. In Week 7, they were annihilated by the Jets 38-0. In those two losses, they were outgained 819-400 and allowed 531 yards rushing! In other words, look for Cowboys RB's Barber and Jones to have a field day here! Before you go annointing Raiders QB Gradkowski as the second-coming (his 2 TD passes doubled the team's TD pass total for the season), note that he has a career 60.0 QB rating and 11-16 TD-INT ratio in four seasons. Dallas is our Thanksgiving Day Feast.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NY Giants -6

[Mr. IWS]

cal sports

4* fla st

[Mr. IWS]

charlie
nfl & ncaaf. detroit+11, green Bay @ detroit over 47' & Texas @ Texas A & M over 62' (500* Triple Play)
nfl. dallas-13' (30*)
ncaaf. texas-21 (20*)
nfl. denver+6 (20*)
nba. atlanta-1' (10*)
nba. utah-7 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Billy Coleman 4 1/2 Star on Butler, 3 Creighton and Xavier.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George | NBA Sides Thu, 11/26/09 - 10:35 PM Ö…

dime bet 504 UTA -7.5 (-110) BetUS vs 503 CHI