11-29-09

[GoBlue]

Vegas Hotsheet - NFL Comp Pick

Miami -3

[GoBlue]

Wunderdog Comp

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Game: Arizona at Tennessee (Sunday 11/29 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: Arizona +3 (-120)

The Titans were left for dead after an 0-6 start, but they have turned it around with four straight wins with Vince Young back under center. Young said this week he was surprised by the 4-0 record. I think he's on to something. Tennessee has certainly improved. But, to go from 0-6 to 4-0 requires some luck. That luck has come in the form of eight opponent turnovers in the first three wins (vs. just one for Tennessee). You could argue that Young is doing a good job at not turning the ball over. But, the reality is, turnoves are mostly random. When things even out (as they always do), the Titans will find the wins harder to come by. This week they will be facing an equally hot team in the Arizona Cardinals that has won six out of seven. The Cards struggled some early on offense, but it was just a matter of time before they got it going. Over the last seven games they have produced 21 or more points. The Titans will be playing this one on a short week and facing the most complete team they have since starting 0-6. The Cards have really been a tough out playing in the role of an underdog where they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven posted as a dog, including 5-0 ATS as a road dog. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a winning record. Playing on Sunday following a Monday game, the Titans are 0-6 ATS on the short week. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. I like Arizona here who I believe is the better team on both sides of the ball and getting points.

[GoBlue]

NFL
Dunkel




SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 205-206: Indianapolis at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 140.940; Houston 139.874
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Cleveland at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 117.898; Cincinnati 137.874
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 20; 44
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 14; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-14); Over

Game 209-210: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.269; Minnesota 140.289
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 10 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-10 1/2); Under

Game 211-212: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 128.274; Philadelphia 134.161
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 6; 43
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 9 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9 1/2); Over

Game 213-214: Miami at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 135.831; Buffalo 126.994
Dunkel Line: Miami by 9; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-3); Over

Game 215-216: Arizona at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 138.215; Tennessee 134.014
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 4; 52
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over

Game 217-218: Seattle at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 125.828; St. Louis 120.261
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over

Game 219-220: Tampa Bay at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.674; Atlanta 134.690
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 12; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+12); Under

Game 221-222: Carolina at NY Jets
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 135.009; NY Jets 132.029
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 223-224: Jacksonville at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.844; San Francisco 131.526
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 4 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick San Francisco (-3); Under

Game 225-226: Kansas City at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 126.875; San Diego 136.307
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: San Diego by 14; 45
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+14); Over

Game 227-228: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 140.488; Baltimore 138.316
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 37
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[GoBlue]

Pointwise Phone Service

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3* Carolina, Minny, New England

2* St Louis, Washington, Clev

[GoBlue]

DOC


5 Unit Play. #120 Take Tennessee -2 over Arizona (Sunday 4:15 pm Fox) Top NFL Play of the Week. The Titans have been a new team since Vince Young started calling plays under center and will enter this game having won four straight. The Cardinals have all but locked up the NFC West and will be making their second straight long road trip, having played at St. Louis last week. Arizona is 5-0 on the road this season but that is fools gold and most of that came against weak teams. They will face Minnesota next week and that game means much more to them than this one. The Titans continue to roll and we will collect big in the process as well. Tennessee 27, Arizona 20.

4 Unit Play. #104 Take Over 46 in Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (Sunday 1 pm Fox) Top Totals Play. We have used the over in the Falcons the last two weeks and collected and we fully expect to complete the trifecta on Sunday with another high-scoring game. The Falcons are still banged up at the running back position and thus will likely have to move the ball through the air. That sets up a perfect play with the over with numerous clock stoppages. The Falcons have been terrible on defense allowing 62 points in their last two games. Play the over and watch your money grow. ATL 34, Tampa Bay 17.

4 Unit Play. #128 Take New Orleans -3 over New England (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) The Patriots are getting too much respect and this writer is certainly not buying into them just yet. They face an undefeated Saints squad in the Big Easy, and are just a field goal dog? That is not right, since New Orleans is 8-0 straight-up and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite. DC Williams has turned around the Saints defense 180 degrees and this unit can now hold their own. 1st and Ten. Throw in QB Brees and a high powered offense and you will hear from this team for quite some time. This line is way too low and we will collect big in the process as well. New Orleans 37, New England 30.

[GoBlue]

Sixth Sense

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Indianapolis -3 HOUSTON 48

Colts barely survived at Baltimore last week but they dominated the game from the line of scrimmage. They out passed Baltimore 9.6yps to 7.3yps and out gained them overall 6.7yppl to 5.4yppl. Houston lost a heartbreaker to Tennessee and missed a game tying field attempt in the final seconds for the second game in a row. They were out rushed badly by Tennessee 5.4ypr to 3.4ypr and 228 yards to 57 yards. They did out pass Tennessee 6.6yps to 5.3yps and out gained Tennessee overall 5.7yppl to 5.4yppl overall. Part of that overall gain was because they threw the ball 21 more times, while Tennessee ran the ball 35 more times than Houston. Indy averages just 3.8ypr against 4.2ypr but 7.9yps against 6.5yps and 6.4yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 4.1ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.4yppl. While Indy doesn’t run the ball well, they still manage to run it better than Houston, who averages just 3.2ypr against 4.4ypr. Houston throws the ball well at 7.4yps against 6.2yps but still not as well as Indy. Overall, they average 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl, which also isn’t nearly as good as the Indy offense. On defense, Houston allows 4.8ypr against 4.5ypr, 6.3yps against 6.0yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl. Indy qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 460-302-21. Numbers favor Indy by 7.5 points and predict about 45 points. The Colts have barely gotten by in their last four games, winning those games by a combined 10 points, including a three point win over these Texans a few weeks ago when Kris Brown missed a chance to tie the game with a field goal at the end of regulation. A bit hesitant to play the Colts in this game because their secondary is so banged up but the situation is in their favor and all three sets of numbers I use say there is value on their side. Combine that with Peyton Manning who just seems to win games against a Houston team who just doesn’t seem to be able to win games when they have to and they have to win this game to have a chance. For Indy, a win here and a Jacksonville loss and they clinch their division. While the Colts may elect to take it easy in a few weeks with such a large lead in the conference I don’t think it happens here. They have also defeated Houston here six of seven years. Last year Houston had them down and a key Sage Rosenfals fumble gave the Colts new life and allowed them to come back and win the game by four points. They run the ball better (although not that well), throw the ball better and have a better defense overall. This series is also traditionally a high scoring series, with these teams totally at least 51 points in each of the last four years here. The numbers only suggest about 45 points and I will respect them enough to stay away from the total. Also, don’t want to go under the total with such a history of high scoring games and both teams ability to throw the ball. INDIANAPOLIS 28 HOUSTON 17

CINCINNATI -13 Cleveland 38.5

Cincinnati was upset at Oakland last week but Oakland was in a good spot. The Bengal’s did out gain Oakland 4.1ypr to 3.8ypr, 6.8yps to 5.4yps and 5.1yppl to 4.7yppl overall. They allowed Oakland to score 10 points in the last minute of the game. For Cleveland, you can look at their performance one of two ways. They jumped out to a 24-3 lead on Detroit, then allowed the Lions to come all the way back, secured the lead late again and then lost the game on a couple of dumb plays at the end of the game. They gained 8.8yps and 5.9yppl overall, which is a huge improvement over any game they have played this season. The bad side is they allowed Detroit, almost as equally inept on offense, to pass for 9.5yps and gain 7.8yppl overall. Part of the overall numbers are skewed a bit because Cleveland chose to run the ball 23 times more than Detroit and pass nine times fewer. Cleveland averages just 3.7ypr against 4.0ypr, a terrible 4.2yps against 6.0yps and 4.0yppl against 5.2yppl. On defense they allow 4.7ypr against 4.2ypr, 7.3yps against 6.3yps and 6.0yppl against 5.4yppl. Cincinnati averages 5.2yppl against 5.2yppl and allows just 3.8ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.3yppl. Cincinnati qualifies in a scheduling situation, which is 100-51-4 but Cleveland qualifies in my turnover table, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Cincinnati by 19.5 points and predict about 39 points. The dog is 10-0 in Cincinnati games this year. Cleveland struggles to score on the road against good teams. They have been out scored by an average of 21 points on the road against good teams this year. I’ll predict a 14 point victory and let the line make the final decision. CINCINNATI 23 CLEVELAND 9

MINNESOTA -10.5 Chicago 46.5

Chicago came out and ran the ball well last week against a good Philly defense, averaging 6.3ypr on 126 yards. They only threw for 158 yards at 3.6yps. They allowed Philly to rush for 157 yards at 5.2ypr although some of those yards were with Michael Vick and aren’t normal rushing yards allowed. They also allowed Philly to throw for 6.1yps. Overall, Chicago averaged just 4.4yppl and allowed Philly to average 5.7yppl. The Vikings destroyed Seattle with a balanced attack again. They rushed for 4.3ypr, while limiting Seattle to just 0.3ypr. They also threw for 7.7yps and allowed Seattle 6.7yps. Overall, they gained 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl for Seattle. The Vikings now average 7.2yps against 6.5yps and 5.8yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr but 5.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.2yppl against 5.1yppl. Chicago averages just 6.0yps against 6.3yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.0yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Minnesota by 11 points and predict about 50 points. Vikings destroyed Chicago here last year 34-14. I don’t see it being much different this year. Vikings are playing at a very high level right now. MINNESOTA 30 CHICAGO 13

PHILADELPHIA -9 Washington 41

Washington played a tough game at Dallas last week but came up short again and suffered some more key injuries. They were out rushed by Dallas, 153-78 and 4.6ypr to 3.9ypr but out passed Dallas 6.5yps to 5.4yps. Overall, they out gained Dallas 5.6yppl to 5.0yppl, again some of that is slightly skewed because they chose to pass the ball more often than Dallas. Philly needed a win after losing two straight and they went to Chicago and got it. They were out rushed in that game 6.3ypr to 5.2ypr but out yarded Chicago 157-126. They out passed Chicago 6.1yps to 3.6yps and out gained the Bears overall, 5.7yppl to 4.4yppl. Washington averages just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.0yps against 6.4yps and 5.1yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow just 5.3yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. Philly averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr, 6.5yps against 6.0yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.9ypr against 4.3ypr, 5.3yps against 6.1yps and 4.7yppl against 5.3yppl. Washington qualifies in my turnover table, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Philly by 13 points and predict about 37 points. Washington has won here the last two years and three of the last four years. I would like to give them a shot but they have so many injuries, it’s just too hard to ask them to continue to stay close in these games. I will lean their way because of the situation but can’t pull the trigger. PHILADELPHIA 24 WASHINGTON 16

Miami -3.5 BUFFALO 40

Miami comes off their Thursday night win over Carolina. They were out rushed in that game 6.7ypr to 5.0ypr. They out passed Carolina 5.9yps to 4.4yps and out gained them overall 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. The Bills played a competitive game at Jacksonville and held a good Jacksonville running game to 3.0ypr but only averaged 2.8ypr themselves, as they continue to struggle to run the ball. They did out pass Jacksonville 8.8yps to 6.5yps but 98 yards came on a pass to Owens. Take away that long pass play and they averaged 6.0yps. That’s still an improvement over what they have managed up to this point in the season and you can’t take away that long pass play, but it’s not likely to keep happening like that either. Overall, they out gained Jacksonville 6.6yppl to 4.7yppl. Again, remove that long pass play and they averaged 4.8yppl, which is still better than what Jacksonville averaged. Miami averages 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.0yps against 5.8yps and 4.8yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.3ypr but 6.7yps against 6.5yps and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. Buffalo averages just 4.0ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.5yps against 6.3yps for a total of 4.8yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr but just 5.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.3yppl against 5.3yppl overall. Miami qualifies in fundamental rushing situations, which are 554-420-14 and 460-302-21. Numbers favor Miami by 3.5 points and predict about 41 points. Miami won on the road last year 16-3 (game was played in Toronto) but lost the previous three years here. Weather should be pretty mild for this time of year in Buffalo. Always dangerous to lay points on the road with a team that doesn’t throw the ball well and Miami still has injuries in their secondary. But, Buffalo has been horrible trying to score points, defend the run, etc. And they lost two more offensive lineman last week. They may get their cornerback back this week but the injuries are piling up on Buffalo and Miami has had 10 days to prepare for the Bills. Better rushing offense, equally bad passing offense and a better rushing defense. MIAMI 27 BUFFALO 14

TENNESSEE -2.5 Arizona 46

Arizona jumped out to a 21-3 lead over the Rams last week and then removed Kurt Warner due to a possible concussion. The Cardinals attack pretty much shutdown after that. They still managed to out rush the Rams, 6.1ypr to 4.6ypr, which is very important seeing the Rams have rushed the ball well this year. They out passed the Rams 7.5yps to 4.8yps and out gained them overall, 6.8yppl to 4.7yppl. Tennessee went to Houston and escaped with a big win. They out rushed the Texans 228-57 and 5.4ypr to 3.4ypr. They were out passed 6.6yps to 5.3yps and out gained 5.7yppl to 5.4yppl but a lot of that was because Houston threw the ball 21 times more than Tennessee. Arizona averages 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.7yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.3ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.4yppl against 5.4yppl. Tennessee averages a healthy 5.3ypr against 4.2ypr but just 5.6yps against 6.0yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 4.4ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.6yps against 6.7yps for a total of 5.8yppl against 5.6yppl. Tennessee qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 690-554-42 but they don’t qualify in the best part of that situation. Numbers favor Arizona by one point and predict about 48 points. Kurt Warner should play in this game but if they get behind or jump out to a big lead, he could come out of the game. Also, this game doesn’t mean as much for Arizona as they have a good handle on their division, they will not get a bye in the playoffs unless Minnesota or New Orleans completely collapse and it is a non-conference game, which plays a lesser role in the tie breaking procedures. Not enough value for me on Tennessee to play them. If I could get the Titans as a dog, I would probably jump on them but with them laying points, I am reluctant to take them. I’ll lean their way but that is it. TENNESSEE 27 ARIZONA 24

Seattle -4 ST LOUIS 42

Seattle was throttled by a balanced Viking attack last week. They were out rushed 4.3ypr to 0.3ypr, out passed 7.7yps to 6.7yps and out gained overall 6.0yppl to 4.8yppl. The Rams were blown out early, trailing 21-3 at halftime and then Kurt Warner left the game and they did nothing after that, allowing the Rams to get the cover in a 21-13 loss. They were still badly out gained, 6.1ypr to 4.6ypr (183-123), out passed 7.5yps to 4.8yps and out gained overall, 6.8yppl to 4.7yppl. Seattle averages just 3.6ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.7yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.0yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 5.5yppl against 5.5yppl. The Rams average 4.6ypr against 4.1ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.3yppl. They may be without their best player, Stephen Jackson this week. They allow 4.7ypr against 45.3ypr, 7.2yps against 6.4yps and 6.0yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor Seattle by 3.5 points and predict about 36 points. Seattle has won four straight here in St. Louis but they have all been close games with wins by 3, 5, 2 and 6 points. Seattle has three wins on the season with all of those at home and two of those wins against bad teams, the Rams and Lions. They have been blown out in all of their road games but they have all come against very good teams, for the most part. As for the Rams, they haven’t won a home game but they have all come against very solid teams (GB, Minn, Indy, NO and Arizona). I will lean the Rams way but without Stephen Jackson (he may miss this game), that would be a big loss for the Rams. ST LOUIS 17 SEATTLE 16

ATLANTA -12 Tampa Bay 46

TB was blown out by NO last week, 38-7. They did manage to average 5.1ypr but allowed NO 5.2ypr. Their passing game was terrible, allowing NO to average 6.4yps to just 2.8yps and out gained overall, 5.7yppl to 3.7yppl. They also lost the turnover battle 0-4. Atlanta lost a heartbreaker in OT at NY. They were out rushed 3.4ypr to 3.0ypr and out passed badly, 9.2yps to 5.5yps. Overall, they were out gained 6.9yppl to 4.5yppl. TB averages just 4.8yps against 5.7yps and 4.6yppl against 5.1yppl. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.5ypr, 7.1yps against 6.5yps and 5.9yppl against 5.6yppl. Atlanta averages 6.2yps against 5.8yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr but against teams averaging 4.6ypr, 6.9yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.5yppl. TB qualifies in my turnover table, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Atlanta by 12.5 points and predict about 48 points. TB is obviously a much different team this year than in years past but Atlanta hasn’t won by more than 11 points against TB here since they started playing each year in 2002. TB has somewhat stayed in games on the road, losing by no more than 13 points in any game except a 19 point loss at Philadelphia and a 28 point loss in London to the Patriots. Atlanta hasn’t won a home game by more than 14 points. I’ll lean towards TB because of the situation, but it’s just a weak lean. ATLANTA 31 TAMPA BAY 20

NY JETS -3 Carolina 41

Carolina had chances early in the game against Miami last Thursday but missed on a couple of pass attempts to Steve Smith, who was wide open for potential big gains. It ultimately came back to bite them because they weren’t able to shut down Miami, nor generate enough offense to get in the endzone. They out rushed Miami 6.7ypr to 5.0ypr but were out passed 5.9yps to 4.4ps. Overall, they were out gained 5.4yppl to 5.2yppl. The Jets were beaten by 17 in NE but had chances in that game. They didn’t move the ball that well in the game but five turnovers by Mark Sanchez cost them a chance at the cover and possibly a chance to win that game. They out rushed NE 4.0ypr to 3.2ypr, were out passed 7.0yps to 5.3yps and out gained overall 5.3yppl to 4.6yppl. NE threw the ball 20 more times than the Jets to help create the difference in the yppl numbers. Carolina averages 5.0ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.4yps against 6.1yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.3yppl against 5.4yppl. The Jets average 4.7ypr against 4.4ypr but just 5.8yps against 6.2yps and 5.2yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 4.0ypr against 4.4ypr, 5.3yps against 6.2yps and 4.7yppl against 5.4yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor the Jets by nine points and predict about 37 points. Hard to have a lot of confidence in the Jets with the way Sanchez is playing and I wanted to lean towards Carolina but all my numbers support the Jets. I’ll lean their way based on that, they do have a better defense, and Carolina is starting to get hit with a few injuries here and there that seem to be adding up. NY JETS 21 CAROLINA 17

SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 Jacksonville 41.5

Jacksonville escaped with a win over Buffalo at home last week but it was less than dominating. They out rushed Buffalo, 3.0ypr to 2.8ypr and were out passed 8.8yps to 6.5yps and out gained overall 6.6yppl to 4.7yppl. The Bills completed one long pass for 98 yards to skew those numbers somewhat but they still out gained Jacksonville overall. SF was blown out early at GB but managed to come back and get the late cover. They out rushed GB 6.9ypr to 4.9ypr but only had 10 rushing attempts and one was for 42 yards. Overall, they were out rushed 158-69. They were out passed by GB, 6.9yps to 6.0yps and out gained GB overall, 6.2yppl to 6.1yppl. Jacksonville averages 4.8ypr against 4.4ypr and 5.6yppl against 5.5yppl. They allow 7.1yps against 6.1yps and 5.8yppl against 5.3yppl. SF averages 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr but just 5.2yps against 6.2yps and 4.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.2ypr and 5.2yppl against 5.5yppl. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SF by 6.5 points and predict about 42 points. Never thrilled to lay points with an offense such as SF but I like their defense better as Jacksonville will be without CB Mathis again. SF has a chance to move the ball on offense with their elite players in Davis, Crabtree and Gore against a below average Jacksonville defense. They are a more physical team as well. Slight lean towards SF. SAN FRANCISCO 24 JACKSONVILLE 17

SAN DIEGO -13.5 Kansas City 45

The Charges went to Denver and dominated the Broncos from the start in an easy 32-2 win. They were out rushed by Denver 6.8ypr to 4.7ypr but out rushed them 203 to 115. SD ran the ball 26 more times. They out passed Denver 6.6yps to 4.3yps and out gained them overall, 5.4yppl to 5.1yppl. KC got the OT win at home against Pittsburgh but they were very lucky to do so. Turnovers and special team scores kept them in the game. They were badly out gained in the game by Pittsburgh. They were out rushed 3.7ypr to 3.4ypr (114-68), out passed 8.5yps to 6.1yps (401-214) and out gained overall, 6.6yppl to 5.1yppl (515-282). A plus two in the turnover department also aided their upset win. KC averages just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 4.9yps against 6.0yps and 4.3yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.5ypr against 4.3ypr, 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. The Chargers average just 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr but 7.3yps against 6.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 5.1yppl against 5.1yppl as their defense seems to be getting better each week. I don’t have any situations on this game. Numbers favor SD by 16.5 points and predict about 49 points. KC has been double digit dogs here the last two years, winning two years ago and losing by one point last year when Herm Edwards elected to try for a two point conversion at the end of the game to win instead of force OT. KC has lost by more than 11 points just once in the past ten years here in SD. SD hasn’t won a home game by more than 10 points this year. I actually like this game to go over the total but will avoid making it a best bet because KC’s offense is below average but the Chargers are going to get their points and may be missing some key people on defense. SAN DIEGO 30 KANSAS CITY 17

BALTIMORE -2.5 Pittsburgh 39.5

The Ravens had chances last week against Indy but they were out played in that game. They slightly out rushed a bad Indy rushing team, 3.2ypr to 3.0ypr but were out passed 9.6yps to 7.3yps and out gained overall, 6.7yppl to 5.4yppl. Pittsburgh was upset at KC in OT but the Steelers dominated that game from the line of scrimmage. Turnovers and a kick return did them in. They out rushed KC 3.7ypr to 3.4ypr (114-68), out passed KC 8.5yps to 6.1yps (401-214) and out gained the Chiefs overall, 6.6yppl to 5.1yppl (515-282). A minus two in the turnover department also killed their chances of winning the game. The Ravens average 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.5yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow just 3.5ypr against 3.9ypr but 6.4yps against 6.2yps and 5.1yppl against 5.2yppl. Pittsburgh averages 7.1yps against 6.3yps and 5.9yppl against 5.4yppl. They allow just 3.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.4yps against 5.9yps and 4.7yppl against 5.1yppl. Pittsburgh qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 407-262-22. Numbers favor Baltimore by three points before accounting for the situation and predict about 42 points. Roethlisberger should start here but there are a few reports that he may not so I need to wait until final word comes down on his status. Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore three times last year, including the great game here with the goal line catch in the last minute that gave them a 13-9 victory. Pittsburgh did lose five straight games here prior to last year. Assuming Roethlisberger plays, Pittsburgh runs the ball as well as Baltimore, throws the ball much better and plays defense against the rush and pass much better than Baltimore. Other than their win over SD (Chargers were banged up for that game) and a win over Denver, Baltimore has failed their tests against the solid teams this year. Pittsburgh hasn’t exactly destroyed the good teams they have played this year but beat Denver just like Baltimore and played Cincinnati as well, if not better than Baltimore. I like the Steelers here if they are getting points. PITTSBURGH 20 BALTIMORE 17

[GoBlue]

Steven Budin-CEO
SUNDAY'S PICK
COSTA RICA CONNECTION

25 DIME RELEASE

Tennessee

This line can be found between 2 1/2 or 3 depending on where you shop as I release this selection at 6:00 P.M. Eastern on Saturday evening. If you have either price - or even if you get stuck with 3 1/2 - I want you to buy down the 1/2 point for insurance no matter the case.

[GoBlue]

Sunday 11-1 NFL System Club Play GC-

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On Sunday the system club play is on the St. Louis Rams. Game 217 at 1:00 eastern. The Rams come in off a pair of hard fought home losses vs the Saints and Cards. Both teams that are over .500. Today they get a Seattle team that is under .500 and they may be able to pull the upset. They have 28-0 loss revenge from an opening week shellacking in Seattle. Home Dogs if they were a home dog of 7 or more last week and scored 14 or less points if the opponent comes in off a game where they had 100 or less rush yards. These home dogs are 15-4 ats since 1980 and 11-1 the last 12. Seattle is just 2-12 ats as favorites of less than 10 points off a double digit ats loss. Take the Rams plus the four points here today. In late phone action I have a Huge 5 unit AFC Totals play from a 100% System that averages 54 ppg. Also on the NFl card is the Triple angle dog of the week which should win the game outright and a BIG 13-1 NBA Blowout system play. The NFL is 10-3 the past 3 weeks and is having another banner year.We nailed Both Big 5 unit plays on Saturday as the rampage continues.Contact at goldencontender@aol.com to get on this guaranteed card. For the System Club play take the St. Louis Rams. BOL GC

[GoBlue]

Double Dragon Nfl

Colts -3
Dolphins -3 (-120)
Panthers +3.5
Titans -2
Vikings -10 (-120)
Patriots +3 (-130)

[GoBlue]

RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL UNDERDOG GAME OF THE WEEK

Pick # 1 Buffalo Bills (3.5)

RON RAYMOND’S 5* NFL O/U BEST BET WINNER! (POWER STATS)

Pick # 1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Atlanta Falcons Under 46 -110

[GoBlue]

M@linsky NFL Sunday

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4* #213 MIAMI/BUFFALO Under

So often the best situations at this stage of the season are those that the oddsmakers and markets simply miss because there is seemingly no reason for them to take a second look. Buffalo’s defensive performance at Jacksonville last week was just such a setting, and we can get ahead of the curve at the value being offered this week.Perry Fewell stepped up to the challenge when forced into the interim coaching position last week; despite the fact that he has almost no chance to be a candidate for the full-time spot he knows a lot of eyes are following in terms of jobs opening up at other places (and perhaps to even stay on as DC here). And while Fewell’s defense has been a disaster this year, so much of that was because of injuries, including such key cogs as Paul Posluszny, Aaron Schobel, Donte Whitner and Terrence McGee. Now the missing pieces are coming back, and what he is doing with them not only mattered at Jacksonville, but can make a big difference this week. With Whitner back to health they spent a lot of the game in sets using three safeties, and what had been one of the weakest rush defenses in the N.F.L. held Maurice Jones-Drew to 66 yards on 25 carries. He did not have a run longer than 10 yards, and the 2.6 per carry was about half of the 5.1 per attempt he was averaging coming in.The Bills played hard on defense for Fewell, and played well, with the safeties leading the way. And the positive attitude is carrying forward. This, from George Wilson - "It does wonders for us because we can disguise our man and zone pressures whenever we're blitzing. Our safeties are so interchangeable that we can matchup with just about any skill guy that's out there and not feel like we're in a mismatch. That gives our coordinator great confidence to be able to dial up those pressures or man coverages and try to confuse the opposing offenses." And from Jairus Byrd - "I'm excited about how they are using us. We have guys who have shown the ability to make plays, so the coaches are looking for ways to get us on the field together. We had some success with it in Jacksonville, so we look forward to seeing how we can expand that."Expect to see a lot of those sets this week, and we believe it will be the ideal counter to those Dolphin Wildcat schemes. With Chad Henne lacking experience, and with the Miami WR’s as mediocre of a group as there is, there just are not a lot of other options for Tony Sparano. But Sparano can be content go just plug away and play for field position anyway, largely because his own defense can keep the Bills under control. A Buffalo OL that was going to be a work in progress with so many new faces this season has instead become a train wreck. When the game ended last week there were only five healthy players left in that unit, and there is absolutely no chemistry. They will be starting their seventh different combination this week, with Geoff Hangartner the only player to appear in all 10 games. Three players have started at LT and four at RT, none of them very good, and that means huge headaches on the outside against Joey Porter and Jason Taylor. The Dolphins already have 26 sacks, and can make life even more miserable for Ryan Fitzpatrick than it already is most games.

4* #206 HOUSTON over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colt SU run is reaching some historic levels at the current 19-0. But there is a different kind of history that they just made that tells us much more about where they really are – they just became the first team in N.F.L. history to win four consecutive games by a combined total of 10 points. Six of their 10 wins have come by four points or less, and if the season ended today only two of those 10 opponents would be in the playoffs. This line is based on that dramatic SU win streak, but the true realities tells us that we have a pick’em game here, and we get a chance to take points with a home team that can exploit the biggest Indy weaknesses.Is calling this pick’em a stretch? Hardly. The Colts are +32 first downs and +727 yards this season. The Texans are +18 and +380 in the same categories. Adjust for the home field, and the fact that Houston has played the slightly tougher schedule, and the counts find you in the pick’em range. It is partly the brilliance of Peyton Manning that has had the Colts pull out so many close games, but also some extreme fortune as well. If Kris Brown makes that late FG three weeks ago, these two would have gone to O.T. at Lucas Oil Stadium. If Kevin Faulk does not have a slight bobble two weeks ago the Patriots win on that same field. Last week all John Flacco had to do was make a better read on an awful late-game interception, and the Ravens are in a prime position to win as well.The Colts have not run the ball well, netting just 3.8 per carry and producing 226 fewer yards than their opponents. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark have 141 of the 272 pass receptions, and because the other options are so limited we believe the second time around in division play will be a much tougher challenge for Manning and the passing attack, as the defenses get a chance to make significant adjustments. And while the defense still rates #1 in the league for fewest points allowed, the absence of Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson and Tyjuan Hagler for the remainder of the season, and Kelvin Hayden, Aaron Francisco and Keyunta Dawson this week, makes them vulnerable against this class of passing attack on the road. Manning’s 8.17 per pass attempt, and 21 TD passes vs. nine INT’s is special, but note that Matt Schaub checks in at 8.10, 19 and nine in the same categories. Now that James Casey is healthy again they can mitigate the loss of Owen Daniels a bit, and they have a trio of rookie CB’s in Jacob Lacey and Jerraud Powers that they can line Andre Johnson up against. So just where are the advantages that a road favorite in this pointspread range is supposed to have?The Texans bring no intimidation at all in this matchup. They had the Colts beaten on this field LY until those late Sage Rosenfels turnovers (it was 27-10 with less than 5:00 remaining), and played them dead even on the road earlier. Because of that they bring the confidence level to attack, which is the way to get after this opponent right now, and that aggressiveness leads to an outright win that really is not much of an upset.

5* #216 TENNESSEE/ARIZONA Under

It should not come as any surprise that we land on this one – after cashing a 6* Under ticket with the Titans on Monday night, and then focusing on how misleading their defensive numbers are in this week’s N.F.L. edition of ”Verities & Balderdash”, we can easily stay in play as the markets deal the wrong line range.Yes, you will see awful statistics for the Tennessee pass defense. That is what happens when you lose three key contributors from the secondary at the same time, and are forced to start a pair of rookie CB’s in back-to-back games against Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, who lit them up for 90 points, 735 yards through the air, and nine TD passes. But now Cortland Finnegan, Vincent Fuller and Nick Harper are all healthy again, while Rod Hood has had several weeks to learn the Titan schemes and is also now a prime part of the rotation. Instead of being near the bottom of the league this is a capable defense, and one playing with a lot of confidence and enthusiasm in the current 4-0 SU run.But the markets lag behind. When was the last time we saw a 46 dealt as a Total on this field? You have to go back 21 games, to December of 2006 against the Colts. Now it is not just a case of the Tennessee defense putting better players on the field, but that the game flows also slow down, as they get back to playing Jeff Fisher football again. And this is not a Total for a Fisher game.Arizona also contributes for our purposes this week. The Cardinal defense has been outstanding on the road this season, allowing only 14.2 points per game (that includes a couple of garbage-time TD’s when they were leading 34-7 in the fourth quarter at Chicago), and their depth and quickness up front make a big difference in slowing Chris Johnson down, and keeping Vince Young in the pocket. Meanwhile the offensive focus continues to be more on working underneath than stretching the field (neither Larry Fitzgerald nor Anquan Boldin are averaging more than 12.0 per catch), and in recent weeks we have see a lot more two TE looks, which not only helps the running game, but brings better protection on the edges for a fragile Kurt Warner. It all adds to bring a much different flow than what the oddsmakers have called for, and we take advantage.

[GoBlue]

DICEITUPONLINE-FIREMAN'S NFL

Jets-2.5 (Buy hook if -3) = 10 Dimes

Bears +11 = 10 Dimes

3 Team Teaser = 10 Dimes
Falcons -2 (Tease down 10)
Chargers - 3.5 (Tease down 10)
Colts / Texans over 37 (Tease down 10)

[GoBlue]

Ace Ace

$2500.00 Take #213 Miami (-3) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
Buffalo is just 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and Miami is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games. Miami has quietly won three of four games (covering in all three wins) to get themselves back in the playoff hunt. Buffalo’s defense still struggled against the run and Ricky Williams proved last Thursday that he’s still got plenty left in the tank. Miami will take advantage of the extra few days that it had to rest and to prepare and I think that they prolong Buffalo’s lost season.

$2000.00 Take #215 Arizona (+3) over Tennessee (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
This play is part of the 99 System. There may not be a line for this game because of Kurt Warner’s status. I will update this number on Saturday evening. But this play is not that dependant on the line. Arizona is going to be an underdog and I think that they are going to win outright. Right now everyone is jumping on Tennessee’s bandwagon but I will go the other way. Even if Kurt Warner can’t go I have confidence in Matt Leinart. Check back Saturday evening for an updated line on this system play.

$300.00 Take #222 New York Jets (-3) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
Here is one of those underdogs that just looks too easy to take. The Jets have lost five of six games but are still a better team than they look on paper. Four of the five losses were by five points or less. The Jets are coming off a humbling loss to New England but now a home game against sagging Carolina is just what they need. The home team has covered four straight in this series and the Panthers are just 4-9 ATS as a road dog.

$500.00 Take #226 San Diego (-13.5) over Kansas City (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
Just like we are going to continue betting against Denver we are going to continue to bet on San Diego. They are firing on all cylinders right now and after manhandling Kansas City in Arrowhead they should score another blowout this week. We saw last weekend that the top teams in the NFL are still ahead of the spread and just much much better than weak teams like the Chiefs. Kansas City is off an upset win. But I don’t think that they have two in a row in them. San Diego is an outstanding 23-10-4 ATS in their last 37 divisional games. They have covered four of their last five games.

$2000.00 Take #229 New England (+3) over New Orleans (8 p.m., Monday, Nov. 30)
it is part of the 99 System. New England is playing great football right now and are peaking at the right time. New Orleans is coming off a big win over a bad team but they have clearly not looked as sharp over the last month as they did early on in the season. New England was blowing out Indianapolis two weeks ago on Monday Night Football until they let that game slip away. I don’t think that they will let this one slip away and I think that they will win it outright. New England is 37-17-2 ATS on the road and they will be ready to play in a very tough environment.

Ace-Ace

[GoBlue]

dover picks


colts 3 units

falcons 2 units

dolphins 1 unit




sea/stl under 43 3 units

wash/philly under 41 1 unit

colt/hou under 49 1 unit

[GoBlue]

donwallacesports

Arizona +3
Carolina +3
Houston +3.5
Cleveland +13.5
San Fancisco - 3
Chicago + 10.5
Miami -3

[GoBlue]

Straightupbet

Teaser 7 point

11/29/09 Bengals (Cincinnati) -6
11/29/09 Browns (Cleveland) Over 32.5

[GoBlue]

Kelso Sun FB Clubs

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5 units Tennessee -2
4 units Dolphins -3.5
3 units Jax/49ers UNDER 41.5

15 units Rams +4

[GoBlue]

Gina's NFL Predictions

Sunday, November 29th, 1:00 p.m. est.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-5)
Georgia Dome - Atlanta, Georgia

Atlanta has lost six of its last 9 games against Tampa Bay at home, going 2-7 ATS. However, Tampa Bay is in a shamble this season, just one win thus far, going 3-7 ATS . Go with the Falcons to grab a win against a pathetic opponent.
Atlanta Falcons -12


Sunday, November 29th, 4:15 p.m. est.
Arizona Cardinals (7-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-6)
LP Field - Nashville, Tennessee

Tennessee Titans’ vulnerable pass defense will have a big chore against Arizona’s offense. Look for Cardinals signal-caller Kurt Warner and running back Chris Johnson to trounce Tennessee and snatch their fifth straight victory. Arizona is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games, 5-1 ATS in its last 6 on the road.
Arizona Cardinals +2

Sunday, November 29th, 8:20 p.m. est.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
M&T Bank Stadium - Baltimore, Maryland

Baltimore is 10-4 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 14 games at home. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games and 3-6 ATS in its last 9 versus Baltimore. Go with the Ravens at home. Steelers Ben Roethlisberger could be out Sunday and strong safety Troy Polamalu is out. The Ravens will take advantage of Pittsburgh’s trouble lineup.
Baltimore Ravens -7

[GoBlue]

JB Computer Picks

Sunday, November 29th 2009
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12
Miami Dolphins -3
Cincinnati Bengals -14
Indianapolis Colts -4
Carolina Panthers +3
Philadelphia Eagles -9
St. Louis Rams +3
KanCity Chiefs +14
San Francisco 49ers -3
Tennessee Titans -3 ***
Chicago Bears +11
Pittsburgh Steelers (NA)

Monday, November 30th, 2009


New England Patriots +3

[GoBlue]

Mr A

Sunday, November 29, 2009 1:00 PM EST.
Indianapolis Colts (10-0) at Houston Texans (5-5)
Reliant Stadium - Houston, Texas
Indianapolis has won the last five meetings, but went just 1-5 ATS in its last 6 contests against the Texans in Houston. Expect to see a close battle at Reliant Stadium. The last three games in this series have been decided by six points or less. Take the points! TheTexans are 7-1 against the spread as a home underdog.
Oddsmakers: Indianapolis as a -3½ point road favorite with the total listed at 47½ 'over'.
Houston Texans +3½

Sunday, November 29, 2009 4:15 PM EST.
Chicago Bears (4-6) at Minnesota Vikings (9-1)
Mall of America Field - Minneapolis, Minnesota
Minnesota has won six of the last seven games at home against Chicago, going 5-2 ATS. Go with the superior team to give the Bulls their fourth straight defeat. The home team in this series is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
Oddsmakers: Minnesota as a -11 point home favorite with the total listed at 47 'over'.
Minnesota Vikings -11

[GoBlue]

bdougsports

Sunday November 29, 2009

*Monster Play*
49ers -3 vs. Jaguars
The Faguars travel all the way to San Fran after 3 straight wins. They are probably feeling pretty good about themselves so we really like this spot. The Niners have won only 1 of their last 6 games, but have played some really tough opponents. The Jags can run the ball with our man crush MJD, but outside that we don’t trust them. They had opportunities to crush the Bills last week and chose to grind it out. San Fran can shut down the run so look for Garrard to make some mistakes. The Jags allow 26 points on the road compared to 16 at home. The last time the Jags traveled to the West Coast was a 41-0 defeat at the hands of a bad Seahawks team.

Titans -3 vs. Cardinals
All Vince Young does is win games. No seriously, they showed his stats during the game last week and he's won 8 in a row and overall is 22-11 as a starter. Arizona is 5-0 on the road so far this year and this looked like another win just a short couple of weeks ago. But the Titans are playing with a lot of confidence right now, and Chris Johnson is playing possessed. Every time he touches the ball, the defense has to think that he is taking it to the house. He's incredible. Arizona finally loses one on the road.

Texans +3.5 vs. Colts
This is the Texans Superbowl after losing their primetime game last week. They cannot afford to go 5-6. Obviously the Colts want to win but they really don’t need to. The Texans had opportunities to beat the Colts at Indy but their kicker sucked it up again. The Colts are very good but in no means are they crushing their opponents. Their last 4 wins came by margins of 2, 1, 3, and 4. This game means much more to the Texans and we get two very similar teams. Take the home dog in the outright upset. Colts lose today.

Dolphins -3 @ Bills
The Phins are the better team, plain and simple. Even without Ronnie Brown, the offense was able to move the ball last week against Carolina. They are technically still alive for a playoff berth, so they'll be playing their asses off. The Bills will be playing their first game at home under new head coach Perry Fewell and could be playing with a lot of emotion. Too bad their talent doesn't match up with Miami. We like the Dolphins here in a tough divisional match up.

Panthers +3 @ Jets
Jake Delhomme on the road, yes we ARE crazy. The Jets are on their way down, the panthers are on their way up. It's as simple as that. The Jets run D will have its hands full with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Sanchize will probably throw a couple of picks and the Panthers will win this one going away. Jets suck.

[GoBlue]

The Black Cat record 43-45
Cinn
Rams
Tampa
Carolina
KC
Houston
Tenn
Miami

[GoBlue]

Randall the Handle

Buccaneers @ Falcons

This isn’t always so complicated. The Falcons are lousy on the road (1-5) and very strong at home (4-0). The Buccaneers are lousy everywhere. Atlanta returns to the Georgia Dome for only the second time since mid-October and will remain here for the next three weeks. If last year’s surprise playoff team wants to participate in this year’s post-season, it must put together a string of wins and it must start right now, especially with Eagles and Saints on deck. Tampa offers little challenge as it continues to shuffle coaching personnel around while working with a subpar roster. TAKING: Atlanta –11½ RISKING: 2.12 units to win 2



Steelers @ Ravens
With Ben Roethlisberger woozy after being concussed last week and Troy Polamalu still out, expect the Ravens to exploit such vulnerability like a pack of lions spotting a wounded antelope. Baltimore will not lack motivation heading into this one as a win would have them tied for second place in the difficult AFC North while a loss will put them in a difficult position for post-season activity. Pittsburgh has been less than lucrative when traveling this year with just one cover in five away games. If Baltimore’s offence and defence ever decide to show up on same day, look out. TAKING: Baltimore –



Colts @ Texans

The Texans are as tough as Jello. Laden with talent, they just can’t seem to turn the toughness corner. Even so, we’re going to call for them to finesse their way to a win here against an Indianapolis team that has been winning on a wing and a prayer. While still undefeated, the Colts have won their last four games by a combined 10 points. After bruising game in Baltimore, they must stay on the road and face a Houston team that was a wide-left field goal away from taking Indy to overtime just three weeks ago. Colts coasting with five-game lead in division while Texans are desperate. TAKING: Houston +3 ½ RISKING: 2.2 units to win to 2 Sports Interaction





THE REST

Browns @ Bengals

The Bengals were embarrassed after losing to Raiders last week. The Browns are embarrassing every week. While we fully expect Cincinnati to regain its focus, it is difficult to spot two touchdowns with a team that has exceeded 18 points just once in past six games.TAKING: Cleveland +14


Bears @ Vikings

This price may seem a bit steep considering long history with these two. However, current form has them headed in opposite directions and with Chicago adding more to its already long list of wounded, Vikes not afraid to pour it on.TAKING: Minnesota –10 ½



Redskins @ Eagles

The Redskins have been badly bitten by the injury bug and with their already limited productivity, things could get progressively worse.. However, Eagles just too erratic to be giving this many points and Washington has only lost once by more than 10 points.TAKING: Washington +9



Dolphins @ Bills

Prefer rested and playoff hopeful Dolphins to a Buffalo squad that has basically thrown in the towel. The Bills lost a couple more players last week and may also be without the services of RB Marshawn Lynch. Once a tough out here, the Bills have dropped eight of past nine at the Ralph.TAKING: Miami –3½



Cardinals @ Titans

Oddly, the Cardinals are 2-3 at home while sporting a 5-0 road record. Despite their travelling prowess and being Super Bowl runner-up, Arizona still finds itself in underdog role here. Titans definitely improved but we’re not quite ready to grant this much respect.TAKING: Arizona +3



Seahawks @ Rams

Not at all interested in giving away points with this sorry Seahawks squad that is a dismal 0-5 both straight up and versus spread on road thus far. To add to its woes, this is Seattle’s third consecutive road game. Short price is justified.TAKING: St. Louis +3



Panthers @ Jets
Both quarterbacks might provide opposing team with more points than they do their own.. When the dust settles, we expect Rex Ryan’s bunch to cause more damage as an already shaky Jake Delhomme has makeshift line in front of him.TAKING: NY Jets –3



Jaguars @ 49ers

After a three-game winning streak, the Jaguars suddenly find themselves in the playoff hunt but we’re not buying it. Jacksonville’s past three home game victories have occurred by 3-points in each case to the Rams, Chiefs and Bills. This assignment is tougher.TAKING: San Francisco –3


Chiefs @ Chargers
Chargers on a roll with five consecutive wins and now find themselves atop AFC West. This might be a flat spot for them after climb and impressive win over Denver last week. Chiefs are showing gradual improvements and figure to be better than 37-7 setback in first meeting.TAKING: Kansas City +14


Patriots @ Saints
Very quietly, the Patriots have allowed the second least amount of points in the NFL. As luck would have it, the Saints have scored a league-leading 369 points. Something has to give and that being the case, the better defence combined with a dangerous offence, while getting points is the prudent move here.TAKING: New England +3

[GoBlue]

SPORTS WAGERS
HOUSTON +1.61 over Indianapolis

The Colts are 10-0 and they’re cruising to an easy division championship with no threats in sight. Now after a holiday Thanksgiving in which they didn’t have to worry about a damn thing, they could be very ripe to get beat. These Colts have blown away weak teams but against tough teams they’ve won by the slimmest of margins. The best thing about that is they’ve played four close games in a row that all came down to the final drive and that intensity level definitely takes its toll. The Colts are coming off a bruising 17-15 win over the Ravens last week after that memorable comeback against New England the week before. In its two previous games they barely escaped with wins over these same Texans, 20-17 in Indianapolis and a narrow 18-14 victory over the 49ers, also in Indianapolis. That’s four wins in a row by a combined 10 points and now with virtually nothing at stake, we could certainly see the Colts take a breather. It’s virtually impossible to play with high intensity every game all year long and these Colts have been pushed to the limit in four consecutive games now. Enter the dangerous Texans, who incidentally, outplayed the Colts in that 20-17 loss, and whom is sitting at 5-5. This could be its playoff lives on the line and it says here that they’ll be the more focused team and the more determined team and in the world of the NFL that will almost always get you a win. Play: Houston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).



TENNESSEE –3 +1.04 over Arizona

Speaking of teams that could take a “breather”, one need not look further than these Cardinals. They have a comfortable three-game lead in the division and they have games left against Detroit and St. Louis to assist them in their quest to win the division should they need it. Furthermore, they have a big match-up on deck next week against the Vikes and this one is against an AFC opponent on the road, thus, it’s not that crucial. It’s also worth noting that Kurt Warner suffered a mild concussion last week and one solid hit and he could get knocked out again. The Cards are not going to take any chance of leaving him in should that happen. For the Titans, this one is extremely crucial, as they were left for dead four weeks ago but a sudden surge has them in a position to get right back in the playoff picture with a win here. Chris Johnson is in the zone right now and is virtually unstoppable. Vince Young also poses problems with his ability to run. The Cards are good and they’re well balanced but this is not a favorable spot for them and you know they’re going to come up lame sooner or later, as they always do. This looks like the perfect spot for that to happen. Play: Tennessee –3 +1.04 (Risking 2 units).

[GoBlue]

Karl Garrett

30 dime ATL
30 dime SF
30 dime KC

[GoBlue]

ATS LOCK CLUB
12 Units on Atlanta (-11.5) over Tampa Bay, 1:00pmET
6 Units on Philadelphia (-9.5) over Washington, 1:00pmET
5 Units on Indianapolis (-3) over Houston, 1:00pmET
5 Units on Baltimore (-6.5) over Pittsburgh, 8:20pmET

CAPPERS ACCESS
Texans
Chargers
Ravens

Unlocked Sports ?
NFL free picks
2* Arizona -3
3* Chicago +11
3* Cleveland +14

National Sports Service
4* Jacksonville +3.5
3* Miami -3.5
3* St. Louis +4

[GoBlue]

Pscychic (won their GOY yesterday with Notre Dame +10)

Private Members Area

11/29

NFL

2 units Washington +9.5
2 units NY Jets +3.5
3 units Tennessee -3 (best bet)
3 units Jacksonville +3.5 (best bet)
5 units Buffalo +3.5 (AFC Game of the Year)

[GoBlue]

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons

When it rains it pours in the Motor City.

The Detroit Pistons, who were dealing with injuries to starters Tayshaun Prince and Richard Hamilton, are now without newly acquired shooting guard Ben Gordon, who missed Friday night's loss to the Los Angeles Clippers with a sprained ankle.

Those injuries have left the Pistons to rely on their untested talents. Rookies Austin Daye and Jonas Jerebko moved into the starting lineup alongside third-year point guard Rodney Stuckey. Off the bench, Detroit went to three-year pro Will Bynum, who scored 14 points and grabbed nine rebounds in Friday's loss.

"We have a lot of guys who can play multiple positions,"Stuckey told reporters. "(Gordon) is a scorer and we are going to miss him. He is going to be back soon, though. This is an opportunity for our young guys to come in and play."

Gordon is doubtful heading into Sunday's game with Atlanta. The Hawks are coming off a win over the Philadelphia 76ers and have been victorious in eight of their last 10 games. Atlanta has won and covered each of its last three meeting with Detroit.

Pick: Atlanta


Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (-2.5, 194)

Houston turned some heads at the start of the schedule, despite missing Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming. The team maintained its scoring punch thanks to role players like Aaron Brooks, who is averaging 16 points per game.

However, in recent games, the Rockets' spark plug has struggled and the team has suffered because of it. Brooks has had scoring performances of nine, eight and 12 points in the past three contests, leading Houston to 2-1 record in which it failed to cover in each game.

Brooks was 5-for-16 from the field in the Rockets' most recent outing, a 92-84 loss to the San Antonio Spurs Friday. The former Oregon Ducks was just 1-for-4 from beyond the arc and got to the foul line only once on a three-point play late in the game.

Brooks could have a hard time getting loose against a talented and energetic Thunder backcourt. Oklahoma City ranks seventh in team steals with pickpockets on the perimeter in Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Russel Westbrook and rookie James Harden.

Pick: Oklahoma City

[GoBlue]

Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Phoenix Coyotes at Anaheim Ducks (-156, 5.5)

An extended home stand was all the Ducks needed to snap their early-season funk. Anaheim has won four of their last five games and have two more games inside the Honda Center including Sunday's tilt with the Coyotes.

The Ducks are coming off a big 3-0 win over the Chicago Blackhawks Friday night. They scored all three of their goals on the power play, turning in a 60 percent success rate with the man advantage. On the year, Anaheim ranks fourth in power-play efficiency with a 24 percent success rate.

“You could tell guys were focused today,” goaltender J.S. Giguere said after the shutout victory. “We knew that we had to play a good game to be able to have success against them. It was one of our better games.”

Anaheim won their last meeting with Phoenix, taking a 4-3 victory at home at the start of the month.

Pick: Anaheim -156


San Jose Sharks at Vancouver Canucks (-102, 5.5)

A red-hot goaltender can be a goldmine for NHL bettors. A red-hot Roberto Luongo could send your kids to college.

The Canucks All-Star netminder is beginning to heat up, allowing just over one goal over his last five games including a 4-1 win against the Los Angeles Kings Thursday night. He stopped 31-of-32 shots, improving his GAA to 2.45 and his save percentage to .912 on the year.

"They had a few chances, especially in the second period," Luongo told reporters. "I was seeing the puck well and it's something to build off of."

Luongo appears to be 100 percent for the first time this season. He missed six game earlier in the schedule with a hairline rib fracture. He was stellar in his most recent start against San Jose, turning away 28 shots for a 3-1 Vancouver victory at home last March.

Pick: Vancouver -102

[GoBlue]

Kelso

Sunday, November 29, 2009

20 UnitsTexans (+3) over Colts
1:00 PM -- Reliant Stadium
HOUSTON TEXANS (5-5) +3 over Indianapolis Colts (10-0) Prediction: Houston by 6-7 Starting Time: 1:00 TV: CBS, DirecTV 706
Partly cloudy with a 40-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the South at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 75.

20 UnitsVikings (-10½) over Bears
4:15 PM -- Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (9-1) -10 ½ over Chicago Bears (4-6) Prediction: Minnesota by 17 Starting Time: 4:15 TV: FOX, DirecTV 712
Game is being played in a dome.

10 Units2-Team NFL Parlay
Texans (+3) over Colts
Vikings (-10½) over Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Booooj

25 units on Miami (-3) over Buffalo
25 units on Jacksonville (+3) over San Francisco
25 units on Philadelphia (-9.5) over Washington

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 100 unit

San Diego -13.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Feist's 20* NBA Western Conf Game of the Year
11/29 04:05 PM PT / 7:05 PM ET

NBA (713) HOUSTON ROCKETS at (714) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER

Take: (714) OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (20* Western Conf GOY)

Reason: The Houston Rockets (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS) are riding a two game losing streak after losing at home to San Antonio on Thursday, 92-84. Even though the Rockets are at .500, they haven't put two wins back-to-back since Oct 31 and Nov 1. The new look Rockets are doing it this year without the big man in the post, as Yao Ming is out with a foot injury. They have had to change the chemistry of this team that was once a very good defensive club to more of a run and gun type team. In fact, the Rockets are 24th in the league in points allowed (103.5 ppg). Even though they held the Spurs under 100 points, it was the first time in four games they have done so. Oklahoma City is off to a much better start in 2009 than last season with a 9-7 SU and 10-6 ATS mark. A healthy Kevin Durant has made the biggest difference this season. Durant leads the team with 27.5 ppg and 7.1 assists per game. The Thunder are riding a modest two-game win streak with a 10 point win at Utah and a 18 point win over Milwaukee. The Thunder have been very good at home, posting a 5-2 spread record and average margin of victory of 8.3 ppg. These clubs met back in Houston in early November with the Rockets coming away with the win, 105-94. Look for payback today as the home court is a huge advantage where these two teams are concerned. I like this spot so much for the Thunder that I fully expect a double-digit cover here with a line that opened at just 3 1/2 on OKC. Take the Thunder as your Western Conference GOY.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney
Sunday ... 60-Dime MINNESOTA VIKINGS ... This is going to be just as easy as last week's winner on the Vikings, and I'll tell you why by 11 a.m. eastern

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

[224] 4.5* San Francisco 49ers -3 -125 | 4:05p ET

4* NFL Teaser 7 pts -130 | [212] Philadelphia Eagles -2.5; [228] Baltimore Ravens -0.5 | 1:00p ET

[709] 4* Boston Celtics -3.5 -110 | 6:00p ET

[707-708] 4* Orlando Magic/New York Knicks OVER 206 -110 | 6:00p ET

[Mr. IWS]

Dennis Macklin
In an industry that offers no guarantees, of one thing you can be certain. Nobody works harder or is better prepared to get YOU the money. The Mack Attack has your back and the best is yet to come. Sport Date Matchup Book Starts NFL Nov 29 '09
4:15p Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Take: Minnesota Vikings -10½-103 in 15h The Bears are in complete freefall going 1-5 after bye with the only win a life-and-death home win over the Browns on the 10th anniversary of the death of Walter Peyton. Cutler just one pick last week but today faces Viking defense with 36 sacks and bringing heat every play. Matt Forte has been in witness protection program leaving Chitown with little offensive options. Shutdown corner Antione Winfield also returns to the Vikes. Say what you will about Brett Favre, he's having a MVP type of year with 21 TDs and just 3 picks. Purple Jesus, Adrian Peterson is slightly dinged but has 999 yards and has had best games against the Bears in the past. Minnesota has six wins of 12+ and the only wat that Vikes don't drop 40+ on the Monsters of the Midway here would be for Childress to call off the dogs early. Division/Conference game and #1 seed in NFC up for grabs, why would he ??? Minnesota 45-13.

Sport Date Matchup Book Starts NFL Nov 29 '09
1:00p Carolina Panthers vs New York Jets
Take: Carolina Panthers +3+105 in 12h The Jets have lost six of seven as Mark Sanchez goes through his learning curve. Sanchez with eight giveaways in last two games but more importantly, the NYJ defense is allowing 28 ppg and 120+ rypg against Panther attack avgg 205 ypg overland in last four. Fox not taking any chance with Delhomme who has thrown just one pick L4 after 13 in first four. Expecting two-headed dragon of Williams and Stewart to got off to the races. Panthers straight up, call it 24-20.

[Mr. IWS]

Trace Adams
1500* - Atlanta Falcons, 500* - Minnesota Vikings, 500* - San Francisco 49ers The Falcons have been a little "road-heavy" these last few weeks, as 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games have come away from the friendly Georgia Dome, and Atlanta only has a 1-4 record to show for it.

That 1 win did come in a double-digit home win, and cover over Washington, as the Falcons are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in their own building this season, and they are also a solid 8-1 against the spread their last 9 following a loss.

After showing a little spark with Josh Freeman under center, the Bucs have dropped their last pair, and they were just shredded by the Saints last Sunday in Tampa. Tough spot for the rookie QB to be starting this afternoon, as the Falcons are in a must win situation, and with Freeman throwing 3 picks last week, there is a chance the banged-up Atlanta defense will be able to containg the Buccaneers offense in this one just enough for Matt Ryan and the offense to stretch the final margin.

Lay the wood!

1500? - Atlanta Falcons

With losses in their last 3, and 5 of their last 6 straight up, things don't look too sunny for the Bears as they pay a visit to the division front-runners.

Minnesota is off their best game of the season, a 35-9 thump job of Seattle at the Metrodome, and this is the conclusion of a 3-game homestand for the 9-1 Vikings.

Minny is 3-0-1 against the spread as a double-digit favorite this season, and they are also 3-1 against the spread their last 4 home games against the Bears.

Chicago's secondary is thing, and both Rice and Harvin have emerged as legitimate threats for this Minnesota team, not to mention Bernard Barrion wanting to get a piece of his old team. Throw in a steady diet of Peterson, and Taylor out of the backfield, and this has the makings of a blowout.

Take Minnesota to march on!

500? - Minnesota Vikings

Jacksonville is in a bad spot today, as the Jags just edged Buffalo at home, and have 3 home games upcoming after today's rare stop out west.

The Jags have won their last 3, and 6 of their last 8, but Jacksonville is just 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games, and they are facing a 49ers team that is desperate for the taste of victory.

The Niners did cover the last time they were favored in a 10-6 home win over Chicago, and they have covered 3 of 5 this season when favored, pushing their mark to 5-3-1 against the spread their last 9 as the home favorite.

I just feel this is a bad scheduling spot for Jacksonville, and I will go-against them this afternoon.

500? - San Francisco 49ers

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Meyer

15* Eagles

10* Jaguars

5* Bengals

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso


100 unit San Diego -13.5

20 Units Texans (+3)
20 Units Vikings
15 units Rams +4

10 Units 2-Team NFL Parlay
Texans (+3) over Colts
Vikings (-10½) over Bears


5 units Tennessee -2
4 units Dolphins -3.5
3 units Jax/49ers UNDER 41.5

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan 25* Total of year

Over Vikings/Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

NFL Football
Eagles -9.5 over Redskins
Washington will have no ground game today with Betts and Portis out. The Eagles will bring the blitz on just about every down making it almost impossible for Washington to score. Philly stepped up big last Sunday night to beat the Bears on the road and should continue the playoff push today. Take the Eagles.

Titans -2 over Cardinals
Tennessee has been the best team in the NFL in the month of November and are making up for their 0-6 start. The Cardinals have a high powered offense, but they are not going to be able to stop Vince Young. Look for the Titans to beat the Cardinals by running the ball well today. Tennessee continues to roll today. Take the Titans.

Colts -3.5 over Texans
Houston has played Indy tough, but this Colts team is undefeated and I do not see them losing to the Texans today. This line is so low so people will be scared to take Indy, but I am not buying it. If you think the Colts will win then take them to cover this low line. Look for Manning to have a huge game. Take Indy.

NBA Basketball
Nets +14.5 over Lakers

[Mr. IWS]

Mti sports
4* celtics/heat under

[Mr. IWS]

Pure Lock

Carolina +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

RAS..Ar st+3..Portland st+12.5..Cornell-2..all one unit

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: NFL Football
Game: Arizona Cardinals @ Tennesse Titans - Sunday November 29, 2009 4:15 pm
Pick: 5 units ATS: Arizona Cardinals +2.5 (-110)

The Titans were left for dead after an 0-6 start, but they have turned it around with four straight wins with Vince Young back under center. Young said this week he was surprised by the 4-0 record. I think he's on to something. Tennessee has certainly improved. But, to go from 0-6 to 4-0 requires some luck. That luck has come in the form of eight opponent turnovers in the first three wins (vs. just one for Tennessee). You could argue that Young is doing a good job at not turning the ball over. But, the reality is, turnoves are mostly random. When things even out (as they always do), the Titans will find the wins harder to come by. This week they will be facing an equally hot team in the Arizona Cardinals that has won six out of seven. The Cards struggled some early on offense, but it was just a matter of time before they got it going. Over the last seven games they have produced 21 or more points. The Titans will be playing this one on a short week and facing the most complete team they have since starting 0-6. The Cards have really been a tough out playing in the role of an underdog where they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven posted as a dog, including 5-0 ATS as a road dog. Tennessee is just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. a team with a victorious record. Playing on Sunday following a Monday game, the Titans are 0-6 ATS on the short week. Under Ken Wisenhunt, the Cardinals are 8-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game. I like Arizona here who I believe is the better team on both sides of the ball and getting points.

[Mr. IWS]

6* W ido w W iseg uy 2 0 09 NFL Non-Conference G AM E OF THE Y EA R on N ew Yo rk J et s -3(-105 at spbook)

The Jets are clearly hurting right now, but with their struggles has come some nice value this Sunday as they host the Carolina Panthers as just a 3-point favorite. Carolina had a chance to get back into the playoff picture last week, but they lost at home 17-24 to the Miami Dolphins. Now they really don't have much to play for the rest of the way, and their schedule is very daunting with road games against the Jets, Pats and Giants and a home meetings with the Vikings. The Jets can get back into the race over the next 4 weeks in games they should win and will likely be favored in. Everything will come together for them Sunday knowing that this is their last chance to get the season turned back around. Both teams rely heavily on the run, and the Jets have the better run defense which is a big reason we are siding with New York. The Jets allow 111 rushing yards/game and 4.0 yards/carry this season, including 109 yards/game and 3.7 yards/carry at home. Meanwhile, the Panthers give up 131 yards/game and 4.7 yards/carry overall, and 133 yards/game and 5.0 yards/carry on the road. This is where the game will be won, which is on the ground. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, and there's really only one team you could think about backing Sunday and it's New York. Take the Jets and lay the points.


5* W iseg uy NFL "S TE AL" of the Week on S eat tle S eah awks -3(-104 at 5dimes)

No Marc Bulger for the Rams gives them no chance to beat the Seahawks in Week 12. The Rams have been competitive of late with Bulger running the show, but they just aren't the same team without him. And even with him most of the way, they are just 1-9 this season. Seattle already beat St. Louis 28-0 at home earlier this season, and not even home field advantage can save the Rams this weekend. Seattle is 9-0 S.U. & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with St. Louis, and that cannot go ignored here. The Rams are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC West. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. The Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Seattle has basically beaten the teams they were supposed to beat this season, and lost to the teams they weren't supposed to beat. The Rams classify as a team they should beat this week, and we fully expect the Seahawks to take care of business running away. Take Seattle and lay the points as the biggest steal this Sunday in pro football.



4* on S an Fr anc isco 49ers -3(-115 at bookm)

We are getting a solid price here Sunday on the 49ers at home as they host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville is just 2-3 on the road this season, losing by 10.2 points/game. The Jaguars are not as good as their record indicates, because they have been escaping with wins over bad teams. They beat the Rams by 3, Chiefs by 3, Jets by 2 and Bills by 3 in their last 4 wins. The 49ers are better than all those teams with maybe the exception of New York, and they'll prove it on the field Sunday. Though the 49ers have lost 4 of their last 5 games, all 4 of those losses have come by 7 points or less so they are playing better than their record indicates. The Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The 49ers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The 49ers are 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the 49ers and lay the points.




4* on M ia mi D olp hins -3(-105 at bodog)

With Buffalo having nothing going their way of late, they now find themselves with a 3-7 record and out of the playoff hunt. They have nothing to play for the rest of the way, while Miami has worked their way back into the playoff picture by winning 5 of their last 7 games after an 0-3 start. They smell blood in the water Sunday and we fully expect the Dolphins to pounce on the Bills early and to run it out the rest of the way behind Ricky Williams, who has been spectacular of late in carrying the load. He finished with 119 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns in their 24-17 road win over the Panthers last week. Also giving the Dolphins a big edge here is the fact that they've had 3 extra days to prepare for Buffalo after playing on a Thursday last week. Buffalo had lost back-to-back games by 21 and 24 points before putting up a fight against Jacksonville last week in a 15-18 loss. But after they led most of the second half, they allowed the Jaguars to score the game-winner in the final minute and now all of the life has been sucked out of the Bills. They won't recover in time to put up a fight against a superior Dolphins' team Sunday. Miami is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Buffalo is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons. Buffalo has a huge injury list right now, and on it is Marshawn Lynch who had to leave last week's game with a shoulder injury. The Bills are just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games, so there isn't much of an advantage for them on their home field. Take the Dolphins and lay the points.


4* on H ous ton T ex ans +4(-110 at SIA)

Houston has suffered some heartbreaking losses to the Colts recently, but we are predicting they get over the hump Sunday. In their last 3 meetings with Indy, they have lost by 4, 6 and 3 points. There comes a time when a team says enough is enough, and Houston does that this weekend as they come together as a team and likely upset the Colts at home. Houston is 27-11 ATS (+14.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992. The Texans are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG on the season since 1992. The Colts are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. AFC South opponents. The Texans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Texans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Take Houston and the points.

[Mr. IWS]

northcoast

tenn 3.5
houston 3
minn 3

[Mr. IWS]

Trushel
clippers/regular
akron/regular

[Mr. IWS]

AL DEMARCO
15 dimer
minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Malinsky NCAAB
4* #725 PRINCETON over CALIFORNIA

One of the biggest keys to beating the early-season College Hoops is
to understand what the schedule means to the teams involved in the
many non-conference affairs. We have a classic example here. For
favored Cal this is little more than an afternoon scrimmage, played
in front of what will be the sparsest home crowd of the season, with
a much bigger target ahead when they go to New Mexico. But for
Princeton this one brings much more.

Why would an Ivy League team travel this far for a single game? There
is a real sense of purpose. This trip was set as a reward for two
Tiger mainstays, starting SR Marcus Schroeder, from nearby Concord,
and JR Dan Mavraides, from San Mateo. This will be the 64th career
start for Schroeder, who is averaging 35.2 minutes per game this
season, and Mavraides is leading the team in scoring. That makes this
not only a special afternoon for them, but for the entire team, since
they all pick their game up a bit to play well for their floor
leaders in a ?homecoming? setting. And that matters because the Tiger
style is ideal when taking this big of a spread. They are going to
set an excruciatingly slow tempo on both ends of the court, patiently
going deep into the shot clocker before firing (with Schroeder,
Mavraides and Douglas Davis having meshed so well in the back-court
they bring a lot of savvy in this playbook), and by utilizing a lot
of different looks on defense they also force the opposition to play
more deliberately.

Cal brings no sense of urgency, and will again be without Theo
Robertson. The Bears have the talent advantages to get the ?W? easily
here, but not the intensity to cover this mountain of a spread vs. a
pesky opponent that is going to bring their ?A? game.

[Mr. IWS]

Dwayne Bryant

Sunday 11.29.09


NFL - #205 Indianapolis Colts at #206 Houston Texans - 1:00 p.m. ET


NFL Game of the Week: OVER 47


I'm not much of a totals player, but every now and then an opportunity presents itself that I just can't pass up. This line opened at 49 and is now down to 47.5 and 47 depending where you look. Much of this has to do with the Colts not putting up a ton of points lately. Indy has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four games. Houston is coming off back-to-back 17-point offensive performances. Sprinkle in the fact that these two teams met just a few weeks ago with a final score of 20-17, and it's no wonder people are betting the under. I think that's a huge mistake.
These are two of the best passing teams in the league. The Colts are the #1-ranked passing offense, while Houston comes in at #3. They say that points come out of the passing game, and that will be very clear in this one. Peyton Manning will carve up the Houston defense and you know he'll be focused on scoring a ton considering Indy's lack of big points lately. The last time Indy faced another top passing offense was two weeks ago when they beat the Patriots, 35-34.
Matt Schaub should have success as well, as the Colts' secondary is missing Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden. But the biggest loss of all is DE Dwight Freeney, who didn't make the trip. That is a HUGE loss to the Colts' pass rush and that will leave those young, inexperienced cornerbacks on an island trying to cover Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and company. Let's not forget RB Steve Slaton, who is a great receiver with top speed. Houston will try to get him in space, as he is a TD waiting to happen.
There were quite a few points left off the scoreboard in that 20-17 meeting a few weeks ago, so don't let that low total fool you. Up until that game, these two teams had gone OVER the total in EIGHT straight meetings. They have gone OVER the total in their last four meetings in Houston, and check out these final score totals: 58, 51, 54, and 58. I see this game also falling into that 51-58 area. Take the OVER as my NFL Game of the Week play.

[Mr. IWS]

RAS Troy-6

[Mr. IWS]

Feist
5* mia/buf UNDER
4* az/tenn UNDER
Inner Circle wsh/phil UNDER
Inner Circle Jax
Platinum Texans
Platinum kc/sdg OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Dwayne Bryant

Sunday 11.29.09


NFL - #205 Indianapolis Colts at #206 Houston Texans - 1:00 p.m. ET


NFL Game of the Week: OVER 47


I'm not much of a totals player, but every now and then an opportunity presents itself that I just can't pass up. This line opened at 49 and is now down to 47.5 and 47 depending where you look. Much of this has to do with the Colts not putting up a ton of points lately. Indy has scored 20 points or less in three of their last four games. Houston is coming off back-to-back 17-point offensive performances. Sprinkle in the fact that these two teams met just a few weeks ago with a final score of 20-17, and it's no wonder people are betting the under. I think that's a huge mistake.
These are two of the best passing teams in the league. The Colts are the #1-ranked passing offense, while Houston comes in at #3. They say that points come out of the passing game, and that will be very clear in this one. Peyton Manning will carve up the Houston defense and you know he'll be focused on scoring a ton considering Indy's lack of big points lately. The last time Indy faced another top passing offense was two weeks ago when they beat the Patriots, 35-34.
Matt Schaub should have success as well, as the Colts' secondary is missing Bob Sanders, Marlin Jackson, and Kelvin Hayden. But the biggest loss of all is DE Dwight Freeney, who didn't make the trip. That is a HUGE loss to the Colts' pass rush and that will leave those young, inexperienced cornerbacks on an island trying to cover Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, and company. Let's not forget RB Steve Slaton, who is a great receiver with top speed. Houston will try to get him in space, as he is a TD waiting to happen.
There were quite a few points left off the scoreboard in that 20-17 meeting a few weeks ago, so don't let that low total fool you. Up until that game, these two teams had gone OVER the total in EIGHT straight meetings. They have gone OVER the total in their last four meetings in Houston, and check out these final score totals: 58, 51, 54, and 58. I see this game also falling into that 51-58 area. Take the OVER as my NFL Game of the Week play.

[Mr. IWS]

Spartan 11/29

Indianapolis vs. Houston

These two got together up in Indianapolis just recently and the Texans had the Colts on the ropes before falling late in the game. The vast majority of people are all over the Colts in this game, yet the number has stayed right there all week. Many feel the Texans blew a tire last monday night in the big game against the Titans. I had the Titans in that game but I am coming right back here with Houston in the role of the home dog in a desperate situation. This is still a talented and very dangerous Texans squad. They are not going to lay down for anybody. They recall how painfully close they were to taking down Indy before plus even Colts fans must admit they have really been dodging some bullets lately. The Texans had them pinned down a few weeks ago, then the sunday night fiasco against the Patriots that worked out for them and even last week when Joe Flacco tossed a crucial pick with the Ravens within range to win the thing with a field goal. The Colts are a helluva team and Peyton Manning is indeed the man, but you can only catch the breaks they have for only so long. The Colts are overdue to go down and this seems like a prime spot for that to occur. I am going against the herd here but I will support Texas here catching 3 points at home in a game they need worse than Indy! Take Houston.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass 11/29

100* Redskins

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Merril:

Houston +3.5
Atlanta -11.5
Chicago +11

[Mr. IWS]

igz1 sports

NBA
4* Boston -3.5 (-110)
4* OKC -2.5 (-110)

CBB
3* Indiana st -2.5 (-110)
3* Marquette PK (-110)
3* Texas -18 (-110)

NFL
3* Seattle -4 (-110)
3* Carolina +3.5 (-110)
3* Colts -3 (-110)
3* Jacksonville +3.5 (-120)
3* Under 39.5 (-110) Cleveland vs Cincinnati
3* Over 46 (-110) Tampa Bay vs Atlanta

[Mr. IWS]

Vegas Sports Informer GOY

8 Unit Play. #228 Take Baltimore (between -1 thru -7 ½ ) over Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 29)
***Sunday morning all books posted Baltimore -7 ½ and we still feel that this game has great value as I thought this number would be between 8-10 point favorite. Will grade this 8-Unit play as long as the game doesn’t go over 7 ½. ***(NFL Game of the Year) Will play this game as long as Baltimore is no more then a 7 ½ -point favorite! On Saturday morning sources have said that Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger will not play this game Sunday night. Only one Las Vegas sports book has this game posted and they have the Ravens -7. With no Big Ben we really like this play as the Steelers offense will be lost. If this game climbs to more than 7-points I would stay off this play. We had this game circled after the Bengals beat the Steelers in Week #3 and this season Pittsburgh hasn’t been a good road team. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games this year. Pittsburgh defense has been questionable and with Troy Polamalu out we should see the offense of Baltimore move the ball at home. Baltimore will win this game on defense and we could see Big Ben not lasting this game because the Ravens “D” will want to get the bad loss from the Colts out of their mouths from last week. Baltimore wins this game by a touchdown and Pittsburgh might be looking at next year because the playoffs are slipping away from the Steel Curtain. Baltimore is 6-1 ATS following a SU loss. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Baltimore.
***Sorry for any problems we might have caused but we thought Big Ben was going to play this game all week long until Saturday we Pittsburgh announced he wasn’t playing***

[Mr. IWS]

A.REDD


10-Dime Dolphins



10-Dime Seahawks



10-Dime Jaguars

[Mr. IWS]

* #709 BOSTON over MIAMI

Malinsky 11-24 -62.5 units in NBA

We get the benefit of a short price here from both directions, and that means a prime opportunity to step in to a setting in which the Celtics bring significant matchup advantages.The oddsmakers are forced to sell Boston short because of a current 2-9 ATS run, but note that it does not really tell us much about the state of affairs with Doc Rivers and his team – they were favored by at least -6 in every one of those games, and seven of them were in double figures. ATS failures in high-line games may be an issue for them all season, because the focus is merely on winning and moving forward, saving as much energy as possible for games that they hope to be playing in June. Now they are playing for only the third time in seven days, which means plenty of physical energy, and with Ray Allen re-joining them yesterday they will treat this one seriously – this is the lowest spread they have been involved in since opening night, and the challenge they perceive gets their focus at a higher level. They still rate #2 on our best defensive set of ratings, and #6 on offense, and that is despite coasting often with leads as big favorites.Meanwhile Miami is priced as though the 9-6 record is legitimate, but the Heat are a troubled item right now. A current 3-5 SU run has to be studied more deeply, with all three of the wins coming by a single point, including escapes vs. the Nets (ouch) and Hornets, and three of the losses coming in double figures. The problem is an offense that is consistently breaking down because they lack a creator at PG, and Dwayne Wade is finding double-teams to be a matter of course. In five of the last six games he has been held to 42 percent shooting or lower, and his frustrations are starting to show - ``At the end of the day, you take what the defense gives you. You only could force so much.” Now they face the most fundamentally-sound defense in the league, which exacerbates all of those issue, and on one of the first nights this season in which we expect to see the Celtics bring their “A” game they are capable of choking the Miami offense, and getting a win by far more than this short pointspread is calling for.

[Mr. IWS]

Fargo 10*

10* today is Seattle -4.

[Mr. IWS]

EXECUTIVE
400% NY Jets -3 over Carolina
300% Seattle -3' over St.Louis

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass
300* Chicago +11
100*Buffalo, Washington
50*Tenn, Cleveland, Pitts, Rams
50* 2Team 6 1/2pt Teaser Carolina & Washington Under

[Mr. IWS]

Steve Deumig

Sunday sweep 30 Dime - Titans

Game opened at pick and quickly moved to -3 for the Titans. The are playing some really good football right now and believe it or not they are actually back into the playoff discussion. AZ is a runaway leader in a soft division. In fact teams that they have played are winning less than 50% of their games. Titans run the football the best of anyone in the league with Chris Johnson and now Vince Young's abilities in the run game. Don't be fooled by the stats involving the Titans against the pass either. Earlier in the year when they were losing 6 in a row, they were forced to play 3 rookies in their secondary. They are healthy now and their pass defense has made a huge improvement. This team did go 13-3 last season so they know how to win and with home field I like their chances.

10 Dime - Chiefs

KC shocked the world last week by outrighting the Steelers and are in a mini win streak for the first time all season. The more games that Cassel gets under his belt the better he starts to look as well behind center. I am also aware of the win streak that the Chargers are in as well but they may be in for a classic let down. They beat Denver, Philly and the Giants over the last 3 weeks. I expect this line to be at 2 touchdowns or better by kickoff and we love dble digits in the NFL.

5 Dime - Redskins

The Skins are once again catching a ton of points against a division opponent. Skins also play good defense and that is certainly worthy of a strong look like we did when we went with them against the Cowboys a couple of weeks ago. No difference here. Skins don't score a lot but they don't give up a lot either. We take the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass 300* CFL Mont -9

[Mr. IWS]

vr 3* ( big slick bet ) jets

vr 3* underdog game of week chiefs

[Mr. IWS]

Heisman Trophy- All 10's Hou, Under Car, Bears

[Mr. IWS]

VegasBuster

Miami @ Buffalo
Pick: Miami -3 IRON PLAY 8*

Arizona @ Tennessee
Pick: Arizona +2 IRON PLAY 8*

Washington @ Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia -9.5 IRON PLAY 8*

Cleveland @ Cincinnati
Pick: Cleveland +13 Silver Play 3*

[Mr. IWS]

executive
hoops
300 minn gophers

[rhg111]

EXECUTIVE
400% NY Jets -3 over Carolina
300% Seattle -3' over St.Louis

is this score executive lock club?