11-28-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[GoBlue]

Larry Ness' Weekend Wipeout Winner-CFB (8-1 CFB run since Nov 20)-Early
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Oklahoma at 12:30 ET. As the saying goes, it will be "Bedlam" in Norman on Saturday. It marks the 104th all-time meeting between the Sooners and Cowboys with Oklahoma leading the series 80-16-7. However, this game has a very different feel from most of the previous meetings. Oklahoma State is ranked 11th and enters having won eight of its last nine games to secure second place in the Big 12 South. It is the Cowboys' best finish in the 14-year history of the conference, and their six league wins is a school record. As for Oklahoma, its season went 'South' quickly, as 2008 Heisman winner Sam Bradford was hurt on Sep 5 against BYU. The Sooners lost that game 14-13 and were manhandled in their most recent game at Texas Tech, losing to the Red Raiders 41-13. They currently sit at 6-5, matching their biggest loss total since Bob Stoops took over as coach in 1999. This rivalry has typically been defined over the past decade by Oklahoma pursuing postseason 'positioning' and Oklahoma St trying to play the spoiler. This year, the schools have swapped roles. No. 11 Oklahoma State will be playing for a potential berth in the BCS. With a win at Norman, OSU could receive an at-large bid for its first BCS appearance. It marks only the third time a ranked Cowboys team will play the Sooners when Oklahoma is unranked (1945 and 1997 are the other instances). Just for the record, the opposite scenario has occurred 38 times. Oklahoma State has lost six straight Bedlam games since pulling off back-to-back upsets of top-5 Oklahoma teams at the end of the regular season in 2001 and 2002. The first one knocked the Sooners out of the national championship picture. OSU's Zac Robinson missed the team's last game (a 31-28 Thursday win against Colorado) but the QB resumed throwing over the weekend after having his streak of 34 consecutive starts snapped. Robinson had injured his shoulder and head in a collision near the end of OSU's previous game against Texas Tech. Head coach Mike Gundy said Robinson should be at "full speed" in practice and play against the Sooners. Landry Jones has taken over for Sam Bradford as Oklahoma's QB, completing 58.4% for 2,556 yards with 23 TDs and 13 INTs. He's been particularly good at home, completing 64.1% for an average of 327 YPG with 18 TDs and just four INTs. Here's the rub. Since losing to Oklahoma State in 2001 at Norman, the Sooners have won 49 of their last 50 home games and take a 29-game winning streak at Owen Field into this game. The streak represents the longest active winning streak among FBS schools and is also a school-best. Mike Gundy played at Midwest City High School and was voted Oklahoma Player of the Year in 1986. He was heavily recruited by the Sooners but in the end signed with the Oklahoma State. He became the starting QB midway through his freshman year and held the job from 1986–1989. Gundy would become the all-time leading passer in Oklahoma State and Big 8 Conference history. Over the course of four years, he threw 49 TDs and for 7,997 yards. He directed the Cowboys to bowl wins in the 1987 Sun Bowl and 1988 Holiday Bowl and also led OSU to the only three 10-win seasons in school history to date. However, he went 0-4 vs Oklahoma, losing 19-0, 29-10, 31-28 and 37-15. He got the head coaching job at Stillwater before the 2005 season and guess what? He's lost all four previous games to the Sooners by scores of 42-14, 27-21, 49-17 and 61-41. Do you really think the Cowboys, who lost at home to Houston 45-35 back on Sep 12 and at Austin to the Longhorns 41-13 on Oct 31 will really "come up big" at Norman with so much on the line? If so, I'm betting against you! Weekend Wipeout Winner 15* Oklahoma.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang Saturday's Selections ... NOTE: Amazing.

It was only a 5 dimer, but winning games like Colorado on the last play of the game is why you put the friendly wager on games.

Forget the fact they should have covered easily, and you could make a case they deserved the cover and it should have never come down to that.

But it did, and I got it and I've always said when you are going good, you are going to win games like that, and I think it's pretty obvious things are going good.

Really in the zone. My NFL run has been the talk of the industry the last 4 weeks at 14-1-2 off of the 75 dime winner on Indy last Sunday, Titans Monday, and Denver Thursday.

All I needed was to catch fire in college to match the pro's, and we are home free.

Folks, I did that yesterday with the top play on Wyoming and the miracle cover with Colorado.

Now I need to come right back with 2 more winners, make it 4 straight winners in college football, and look to improve on the 7-0-2 run the last 3 Sundays.

Are you ready? Are you ready to be a winner today? I hope so because I have 2 games that just like yesterday I feel will get the job done.

Let's get it on.

20 DIME - SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES - Live dog here today.

After their heartbreaking loss to Louisville on the road 25-23, and their season slipping away, the Golden Eagles flat-out found it.

They came home to blow out Memphis by 20, Tulane by 37, and off a heartbreaking loss at Houston in the final seconds 50-43, they turn right around and go back on the road and beat Marshall 27-20.

They return home to beat Tulsa by 10, and all of a sudden they are a game away from the Conference USA Championship Game.

What makes this team even more appealing to me, other than the fact Southern Miss is playing their best ball of the entire year right now, is the fact they are playing in a venue they love.

They have won 11 of the last 13 games played at ECU, including 7 in a row!

They have had that kind of success here and I am getting close to a touchdown?

This line is a bit inflated off the big win by ECU last week over UAB, but a closer look tells a different story.

UAB had a 24-14 first down edge and a 520-325 yard edge as well.

In the first half UAB went on an 11 play, 85 yard drive, and settled for a 27-yard field goal. They missed a 47-yard field goal, fumbled at their own 45, and were stuck on downs at the ECU 19 yard line.

ECU had a field goal drive kept going with a roughing the punter penalty, and with 8 seconds to go in the half and UAB going in, an 89 yard INT set up a late ECU field goal.

So despite a 241-201 yard edge, UAB was down 23-3 and in the 2nd half, they missed a 42 yard field goal and after another 12 play 80 yard drive they settled for another 33 yard field goal making it 23-6.

ECU promptly returns the ensuing kickoff 99 yards and for all intets and purposes, game over.

This line should be no more than 3 points, but I believe off the inflated final score of ECU over UAB, you are getting great value here and it's value I won't pass up.

If UAB, with the # 32 best offense in the country can outgain ECU by almost a 2-1 margin, I'm confident Southern Miss can do the same with the # 31st best offense.

And the bottom line is it wouldn't suprise me if Southern Miss won the game outright and is off for their rematch with Houston in the Conference USA Championship game.

5 DIME - OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS - The bottom line is this is one of the few times Oklahoma State is flat-out the better team.

They come in here 9-2, including a perfect 3-0 on the road, and they are catching the Sooners in a rare bad year.

If ever there was a time for the Cowboys to handle their business against their arch nemisis, this is the day.

Disappointment comes in many forms, and for the Sooners of Oklahoma, who had dreams of playing for a National Championship with their Heisman Trophy winning QB, this season is a huge disappointment.

What is Bob Stoops using for motivation in this game? Win this game today, get to 7-5, and let's go play in the Big Blue Bucket of Chicken Bowl Game against the 4th best team in the PAC-10, after playing in the National Championship Game last year!?!?!!?

I know all about the trends favoring the Sooners here, winning the last 6 SU, and covering 4 straight, and 5 of the last 6 in this series.

But, and this is a very big but, the Cowboys bring the better all around team into this matchup.

Just to let you know how this flat-out isn't the same Oklahoma team we are used to seeing, the only reference you need is last weeks 41-13 loss to Texas Tech.

They got drilled, humiliated, which tells me they have mailed it in and will struggle to cover this number today.

My feeling is Oklahoma State takes them down to the wire and your value is with the dog getting more than a touchdown.

5 DIME - SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS - (Note: If line is 3 you buy the 1/2 and get 3 1/2) - If you can battle the best team in the country at home, you can do one better and beat Clemson today.

We are seeing a trend this weekend with teams who are playing their rivalry game with their conference championship game waiting for them next week failing to cover the number.

So far Texas, Alabama, and Nebraska all failed to cover, and considering the old ball coach has had extra time to prepare and is 2-0 as a home dog this year, I will take my chances.

I wasn't very impressed with the effort of Clemson against Virginia last week, as the Cavaliers gave the Tigers a game in Death Valley.

I am talking about a Virginia that was blown out all over the place this year to the tune of 35 at Miami, and 24 at home to Georgia Tech.

This South Carolina team has been competitive in every single game this year with exception of their back-to-back road efforts at Tennessee, and Arkansas.

Love the number, the situation and the spot in which South Carolina catches Clemson in today, and just like the other 3 teams who failed to cover with a guaranteed spot in the conference championship games locked up win or lose, I will gladly take the home dog.

FREE SELECTION - ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 25* CFB Game of the Year-This is It!
My 25* CFB Game of the Year is on BYU at 5:00 ET. The only game this week matching top-25 opponents is No.22 Utah visiting No. 18 BYU in what's been dubbed as the "Holy War." The state of Utah may be deeply religious but its citizens love football and BYU and Utah 'hate' each other! Both schools have played "second fiddle" to TCU this season in the MWC but of course BYU football owns a great history (Detmer won the Heisman in 1990 and the Cougars won the national championship in 1984). Utah can't claim either of those accomplishments but the 2004 team became the very first "BCS bowl-buster" in 2004 (finished 12-0 and ranked 4th in the final AP poll) and last year's team did that squad one better, beating Alabama 31-17 in the Sugar Bowl (as nine-point dogs) to complete yet another perfect season (13-0) and getting ranked No. 2 by the AP in its final poll. The winner of this game will finish 7-1 in the conference and 10-2 overall. A look at the "stat book" shows two similar teams with BYU getting the edge for playing at home but of course, that's reflected in the line. However, revenge and motivation squarely lie on the BYU sidelines. BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall hasn't been able to consistently coax totally focused efforts out of his team every week. The Cougars shocked then-No. 3 Oklahoma the first Saturday of the 2009 season, beating the Sooners 14-13 in Arlington (Cowboys Stadium), as better than three-TD underdogs. However, just two Saturdays later, the Cougars were drubbed at home by a sad-sack Florida State team, 54-28! The Seminoles ran for 313 yards (FSU has averaged just 148.6 YPG on the ground after 11 games), while forcing five BYU turnovers. That FSU win ended a school-record 18-game home win streak for the Cougars. BYU was totally out-classed at home by TCU in a 38-7 rout on October 24th but the Horned Frogs have done that to most opponents this year. What has to trouble Cougar fans are less-than-impressive road wins like the ones at San Diego State (38-28) and 24-19 at New Mexico. However, there will be NO lack of focus or motivation for this game, especially for Max Hall, playing his final home game. Hall tossed five INTs (zero TDs) in BYU's 48-24 loss at Salt Lake City a year ago, as Utah's 6-0 edge in turnovers had a lot to do with that blowout final. Even back in 2007, when the Cougars edged the Utes 17-10, Hall was just 17-of-40 without a TD and one INT. That's two career games against his school's biggest rival and this senior QB with the prolific career has zero TD passes in 81 attempts while throwing six 'picks!' I'm BETTING that Hall will come through this time. After all, look at what he's accomplished. Hall re-shirted his freshman year ('04) at Arizona State and then transferred to BYU but left for a mission. When he took over as BYU's starting QB, he hadn't played a competitive game in four years. All he did in '07 was lead BYU to an 11-2 season, ending the season on a 10-game winning streak after its 17-16 Las Vegas Bowl win over UCLA. Hall passed for 3,848 yards in '07, throwing 26 TDs and just 12 INTs (completed 60.1 percent). Hall led BYU to a 10-3 season in 2008, completing 69.0 percent of his passes for 3,957 yards with 35 TDs and 14 INTs. Hall entered the 2009 season with a 21-5 record as a starter, a 61-26 TD-to-INT ratio and 11 career 300-yard passing games. He enters the final regular season game of his career having completed 70.3 percent of his passes in 2009, averaging 294 YPG through the air with 28 TDs and 14 INTs . His QB rating of 167.2 ranks him behind only Kellen Moore (Boise St). His career ratio is 89 TDs with just 40 INTs. Hall and BYU will be up against Utah and its freshman QB Jordan Wynn. Wynn is starting just his fourth game and just his second on the road. His two home starts have come against league doormats New Mexico and SDSU, while his road start was in Utah's 55-28 loss at TCU. TCU is a better team than BYU this year but Wynn will learn that the Fort Worth venue on Nov 14 isn't "anything like" playing this game in Provo. Wynn's job will be made tougher by BYU's vast improvement against the run since that FSU debacle back in mid-September. Since giving up those whopping 313 yards and four TDs on the ground to Florida State, the BYU rush defense has permitted just one opponent (Air Force) to generate more than 127 yards on the ground (Falcons were held 55 yards under their season average and to 3.8 YPC). Hall became BYU's all-time winningest QB in last Saturday's win over Air Force, surpassing former Heisman Trophy winner Ty Detmer's 29 victories, but a 31st win will be much 'SWEETER' indeed. CFB Game of the Year 25* BYU.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer Blowout GOY

Game: Baylor at Texas Tech Nov 28 2009 6:00PM
Prediction: Texas Tech
Reason: I'm laying the points with Texas Tech on Saturday night. Earlier this week I heard some folks in a local Las Vegas sports book talking about the potential letdown by the Red Raiders this week. I can understand why some would feel a letdown would be in store. After all, the Red Raiders just throttled the mighty Oklahoma Sooners. But instead of a letdown, I believe Tech is just hitting their stride. The offense sputtered a bit (relatively speaking) on the road, but piled up 549 yards in the 41-13 thrashing of Oklahoma in Lubbock. This week's game is a neutral site contest, being played in Arlington. Few of the Baylor-faithful will be making the trip after a truly disappointing season. When the Bears lost "Super Soph" QB Robert Griffin, their season hit the skids. Griffin led the Bears to a 2-1 start with their only loss coming by eight, 30-22 to UConn. He owned a 65% completion rate with four touchdown passes and no interceptions. And of course, Griffin could run defenses right off the field with his feet. Freshman Nick Florence had to take over for Griffin and the offense hasn't been the same. Florence owns a 6-9, TD-INT ratio. And after averaging 36.3 ppg through their first four games, Baylor has scored a grand total of just 91 points in seven Big-12 contests, or 13 ppg. Take out the extremely strange result (40-32 win) in Columbia, Missouri, and the Bears have averaged just 8.5 ppg in their other six conference tilts. Now they face a Texas Tech squad who's likely to put up points-at-will against a Baylor defense that allows 28 ppg, and ranks 96th in the nation in total defense. The Bears allow a 45.6% third-down conversion rate, along with 4.6 yards per carry and have just nine sacks on the season. They're also in a "dead" spot having their slim bowl hopes completely dashed in last week's 38-3 loss to A&M. The team is ready for their disappointed, unfulfilled season to come to an end. Tech has beaten Baylor 13 straight times by an average margin of 28 ppg, and they're 8-2, 80% ATS the last 10 times. Look for Tech to roll on Saturday. I'm laying the points with Texas Tech. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Rotation #143 Clemson (-3) 2-Stars at -3 or less.
Rotation # 157 Central Florida (-3) 3-Stars at -4 or less, 2-Stars up to -6.
Rotation #162 SMU (-17 1/2) 2-Stars at -19 or less, 3-Stars at -17.
Rotation #184 South Florida (+6 1/2) 2-Stars at +6 or more.
Rotation #191 San Diego State (+6 1/2) 2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +7.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root:

4*So Florida (+6½)
10* Kansas (+3½)

Rivalry Day Upset Parlay
6* Arizona State (+3)
7* Georgia (+7½)

[Mr. IWS]

Spreitzer GOY Tex Tech

[Mr. IWS]

Burns----Lock Ariz St, LSU under

[wayneschultz]

anybody have root's 3* legend pick to complete his card? thanks for the picks!!!

[Mr. IWS]

PPP 5% smu
4% GA tech

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

10 Underdog Goy-arizona St.
Main Event - 10 Lsu Under
Massacre-9 South Carolina
Acc Best Bet-8 Nc State
Scc Best Bet-7 Mississippi

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' CFB Rivalry Shocker of the Month- Part 2 (8-1, 88.9% since Nov 20)
My 15* Rivalry Shocker of the Month (Part 2) is on Arizona St at 3:30 ET. Arizona needed a victory over Oregon last weekend to remain alive in the race for the Pac-10 title and a trip to the Rose Bowl. Close followers of the Pac 10 may know that the Wildcats are the ONLY Pac 10 school which has NEVER appeared in the Rose Bowl. Arizona "spit out the bit" late last Saturday night in Tucson, eventually falling to Oregon, 44-41 in double-OT. As for Arizona State, the Sun Devils suffered their FIFTH consecutive loss last Saturday, falling 23-13 at UCLA. The Sun Devils have tried three QBs in that time span, failing to register more than 21 points in any game during their current losing slide.Senior Danny Sullivan (just 54.2 percent completions with eight TDs and nine INTs) was replaced in the USC loss by highly-touted 6-8 freshman Osweiler. Osweiler started vs Oregon but was replaced by sophomore Szakzcsy in that game, after taking a hard hit. Szakcsy started vs UCLA and was not bad, completing 15-of-22 for 197 yards (two TDs and one INT). He'll start here. Arizona sophomore QB Foles has played well, after attempting just eight passes as a freshman. He enters this game completing 69.0 percent with 17 TDs and a modest seven INTs. The Arizona running game is good (181.0 / 5.1 YPC) but the team's best RB, Grigsby (559 YR / 7.5 YPC), will miss with an injury. Arizona has not played well on the road this year, losing 27-17 at Iowa, winning 37-22 at Oregon St (lone win), losing 36-33 at Washington and losing 24-16 at Cal. Meanwhile, ASU has played very well in its last two home games. The Sun Devils lost 23-21 to Cal (Bears kicked the game-winning FG with just 21 seconds left) and 14-9 to USC (Trojans scored on a 55-yard INT return and a 75-yard TD pass). ASU is going nowhere but this its final game against its hated intra-state rival. Meanwhile, not only is Arizona off a heartbreaking loss to Oregon, it finds itself in the odd position of having a game AFTER the Arizona State contest (at USC on Dec 5) for the first time since 1986. Rivalry Shocker of the Month (Part 2) 15* Arizona State.