12-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[kreekor]

Burns

AFC East TOM---Under NYJ/Buf

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

NOTE:
Duquesne and Wofford.

Two very tough beats. Northern Iowa wins outright as a 6-point dog.

A very possible 3-0 turns to a 1-2 in a blink of the eye. Welcome to the world of College hoop.

So I take a break from the college hardwood, and focus my attention and energies to football and building on something so special, so legandary, so incredible, the stuff dreams are made of.

16-2-2 NFL run paid and comp plays the last 4 weeks. I'm talking 16-2-2. Any questions? Didn't think so.

I am the hottest NFL handicapper on the planet earth and when the smoke clears after this weekend's action, it now only will be another huge winning weekend in the NFL but another big winning week as well.

Forget about anything that has happened in the past. Doesn't matter here. It's all about the here and now, and the here and now will tell you I am the guy to be with in the NFL.

Don't sleep on college though as I banged home 4-1 over the Thanksgiving weekend, and today I will add to that college football number as well.

A lot of positives right now and I aim to keep it that way despite the efforts of Duquesne and Wofford.

Let's get to another NFL winner.

20 DIME - NEW YORK JETS - (If 3 1/2, you buy down to 3, and if 3 you buy down to 2 1/2) - In using the Saints as my 7th straight 20 dime winner on Monday night one thing made all the difference in the world for me.

The Saints offensive line was 3rd best in the league at protecting Drew Brees allowing just 14 sacks all year versus a New England defense ranked 28th at getting to the QB.

Drew Brees with time to throw = blowout victory. Simple as that.

Tonight the Jets take the 2nd best rush offense in the NFL against the worst run defense in all of football in the Buffalo Bills.

Folks, you can't stop the run in the NFL and rest assured more times than not, you are going to get beat.

In the first meeting between these two the Jets ran for over 300 yards and still figured out a way to lose the game in OT because of the stupidity of the Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.

I remember watching the first game saying to myself, "Why is this man dropping Sanchez back in windy conditions throwing the football when they are having so much success running it?"

I'm talking about 6 INT's in just 30 pass attempts.

Well I truly believe Mr. Schottenheimer has most certainly learned his lesson from that game and on this neutral site tonight I fully expect a large dose of Thomas Jones and many successful play action situations for young Mr. Sanchez.

The Bills come off a nice win against the Dolphins last game out but that is all it was, a nice win. They can't make the playoffs, and they are facing a team that is still alive and who's defense is playing much better.

They have adjusted to the loss of Kris ******* and their secondary did a great job against Steve Smith last week. Looks like the little bit of glory Terrell Owens received will be short-lived against arguably the best cover corner in the NFL in Darrelle Revis.

This is all about the run offense of the Jets controlling the clock, controlling the game and most importantly controlling Mark Sanchez, who last week just did what he was asked, manage the game and the Jets managed a 17-6 win.

Last question. Who has the 2nd worst run defense in the NFL? Answer: The Oakland Raiders.

The Jets beat them 38-0. Enough said.

FREE SELECTION - OREGON STATE BEAVERS

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Thursday Night Analysis
New York Jets (-3) 21 Buffalo 14 (at Toronto)
Buffalo has played better under interim coach Perry Fewell, as the Bills have out-gained their opponents 6.5 yards per play to 4.7 yppl in his two games leading the team. The offensive increase is mostly just random positive variance most likely, although the decision to make Fred Jackson the #1 running back over Marshawn Lynch last week was a good move given that Jackson has averaged 4.1 ypr and Lynch just 3.1 ypr this season. Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has had a couple of good games in succession since returning to the starting role, as he's hit Terrell Owens for big plays in consecutive weeks. Fitzpatrick, however, is still 0.3 yards per pass play worse than average for the season (5.8 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback) and he's much worse than that for his career, so it's likely that the last two weeks are a fluke. Fitzpatrick will certainly have a tougher time maintaining his hot streak against a Jets' secondary that is the NFL's best now that CB Lito Sheppard is healthy again and playing opposite of the league's best cornerback Darrelle Revis. In 4 games with Sheppard starting the Jets have yielded just 4.1 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.1 yppp against an average defense), so I don't expect much from the Bills' pass attack in this game and the mediocre running of Jackson won't be enough for the Bills to mount much of an offense.

New York, meanwhile, should be able to run the ball well against a soft Buffalo run defense (5.0 ypr allowed) and Sanchez has improved since WR Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury to join Braylon Edwards and give Sanchez to solid wideouts to throw to. Sanchez is still worse than average on a yards per pass play perspective in the 4 games with both Cotchery and Edwards (6.5 yppp against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp) and he's averaging 1.5 interceptions per game, although he's thrown 1 or fewer picks in 7 of the 11 games. Buffalo defends the pass well (5.6 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.2 yppp against an average defense) and the Bills have intercepted 20 passes in 11 games, so Sanchez needs to be careful. There is no need not to be careful with the Jets' ground attack likely to work well in this game (4.9 ypr projected).

My math model favors New York by 6 1/2 points on this neutral field in Toronto and that makes them a pretty solid play at -3 points, although it's a bit risky given the possibility for multiple interceptions by Sanchez against a ball hawking Bills' secondary. The Jets have a 54.3% chance to cover based on the historical performance of my math model, so I'll lean with New York minus the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Allyn Root
- Double Impact -
THIS GAME IS PLAYED IN TORONTO, CN. THE KING OF PRIMETIME HAS GREAT INSIGHT HERE!
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 3, 2009, 5:20 pm(PST) Matchup: NY Jets Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Take: Buffalo Bills




WAR WILL IMPAQCT YOUR MAN WITH THIS WINNER...DOUBLE UP!
Football NCAAF
Game Date/Time: December 3, 2009, 6:00 pm(PST) Matchup: Oregon State Beavers @ Oregon Ducks

Take: Oregon Ducks

[Mr. IWS]

burns

Roast---Bills
Sun Belt GOY---W. Kentucky