12-5-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness 25* Legend

Rutgers

[Mr. IWS]

Lang

Saturday's Selections ... NOTE:
Man I feel good about everything right now.

I feel great about the Florida Gators today. I flat out love the NFL card on Sunday, and that is a very scary statement considering I am on a 17-2-2 run paid and comp plays the last 5 weeks.

All season long people were waiting for this kind of run from me and I think it's safe to say it's here and it's a huge winning run at that.

I've said all along it's a long season, and I have been doing this way too long not to know it was going to turn good, and when it did I was going to go on a winning streak of a lifetime.

Well I am smack dab in the middle of it, and now it's my job once again to step up big and deliver big on this Saturday card and keep this thing moving in a positive direction.

I was able to do that in November. Now I have to do that in December. I am as confident as ever I will continue to feed off the winning November and once December has come and gone, I will have closed out 2009 exactly the way I said I would.

With back to back winning months.

Now sit back and enjoy my breakdown of why the Florida Gators take care of the Alabama Crimson Tide by 10 points or more.

40 DIME - FLORIDA GATORS - Tim Tebow.

This entire game and whether or not Florida covers the number doesn't come down to Florida's defense or Alabama's defense. It comes down to one guy and one guy only.

Tim Tebow.

If he plays well, executes the spread against Alabama's defense, no doubt in my mind Florida wins this game by 10 points or more.

First and foremost, let's start with this pointspread number of under a touchdown the Gators will try to cover.

Over their last 40 wins, 38 of them have been by 6 points or more. Juggle that number around in your head for a minute you have some time.

Last year Alabama played about as well as they possibly could and still lost by 11 and that was with an experienced QB in John Parker Wilson. This year it's first year starter Greg McElroy, who now plays the biggest game of his entire life.

The bottom line is he hasn't seen a defense like this all year long. I am talking about the # 1 overall defense in the entire country in the Florida Gators.

Last week at Auburn the Crimson Tide struggled in their running game to the tune of just 72 yards rushing and that was against the # 80th run defense in the entire country. Now they step up to face the 8th best run defense in the country.

Yes, I am fully aware of Alabama's # 2 overall defense in the country but it's a defense Tebow has seen and will be ready for.

Folks, you can't discount the experience of Tim Tebow in this game. You just can't, and as this game unfolds right before your every eyes you will see what that experience will do for Florida in this football game.

Getting the Gators at this kind of value is value I can't pass up.

Since they lost to Georgia laying 7 1/2 back in 2007, the Gators have been a favorite of 7 points or less 4 times and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS.

They laid 7 1/2 at South Carolina at the end of the 2007 season and won 51-21. In 2008 they laid 7 1/2 at Tennessee and won 30-6, 3 games later they laid 6 1/2 at home to LSU and won 51-21 and in a payback game against Georgia laying 6 1/2 they won 49-10.

Other than that, you haven't gotten Florida laying single digits again.

This year you have had to lay 16 points or more in every single game except the -10 at LSU.

You have gotten no value with the Gators this year when you have been asked to lay 37, 30, 20 1/2, 24 1/2, 22, 16, 35, 17 1/2, 47 and 25.

I want you to think about the value you are getting with the Gators today. It's basically 3 years full of value and it's value I am willing to step out 40 dimes on.

Congrats to the Florida Gators as they deliver the double digit win and now get ready to face the Texas Longhorns in the National championship game.
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5 DIME - TEXAS LONGHORNS - (if line is 14 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and lay 14.) - Blowout. Absolute blowout.

This is as big of a mismatch as you can have all the way across the board.

Nebraska offensively has been a disaster all year long, and now they have to step up and find an offense against the best defensive opponent they will have faced all year long? It's a reciepe for a blowout.

Did you know 6 of the last 7 Big 12 Championship Games have been decided by 21 points or more? You might as well make it 7 of the last 8 because that is exactly where we are heading tonight.

What has Nebraska shown you this year offensively that leads you to believe they can so anything in this game to keep up with Texas?

In Big 12 play they were completely shut down at Missouri for 3 quarters until the Tigers offense turned it over 3 times in the 4th that got them to 27 points.

They scored 10 against Texas Tech, 9 points at home to Iowa State, a game they turned it over 8 times, 20 at Baylor, 10 against Oklahoma and 17 at Kansas State.

Their two biggest offensive outputs were 31 at Kansas, who's defense is ranked 74th overall and 28 last week at Colorado, who's defense is ranked 60th.

Let's see how they execute against the 5th best defense in the country for 60 minutes.

I am not the least bit worried about the Nebraska defense because the only offense they faced that comes near Texas is Texas Tech and the Cornhuskers were beaten soundly at home 31-10.

The bottom line folks is you don't struggle to score 10 points at home against the 48th ranked overall defense in Texas Tech, and go on to compete against the 2nd best team in the country who is playing to get into the biggest game of them all.

Longhorns roll with complete focus and get set to play the Gators for the National championship.

5 DIME - CONNECTICUT HUSKIES - (Note: If line is 7 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and get 7 ) - There is no way South Florida competes for 60 minutes in this game.

They just lost at home to their in-state rival Miami-Florida, 31-10 and now have to get on a plane and fly to the cold weather of Uconn and face a surging Huskies team.

I am talking about a UConn team that has one of the best ATS marks in the entire country this year.

Uconn has covered every single game this year with exception of their home game versus Rutgers. That is absolutely correct.

The Louisville game was bet down to 12 1/2 and 12 in some places and their 13 point win was enough to get the cover.

They have handled everyone and if you thought for one second there would be a letdown after their huge win over Notre Dame 2 weeks ago, you thought wrong.

They only came back home and completely hammered Syracuse to the tune of 56-31, and I fully believe it will be all systems go for Randy Edsalll's team in this game as well.

If South Florida some how shows up and competes and covers the number against one of the best pointspread teams in all of college football this year, so be it.

My dollar says they don't.

Uconn rolls large.

FREE SELECTION - CLEMSON TIGERS

[Mr. IWS]

Root:
10* Washington +7
6* Pitt +2.5
4* East Carolina +3
GOY Clemson -1

[Mr. IWS]

Doctor BoB

2 Star Selection
**Nebraska 16 Texas (-14.5) 24 (at Arlington)
05:00 PM Pacific, 05-Dec-09

Texas may be deserving of being in the National Championship Game if they win this game, but they are not deserving of being a 14 point favorite against the one of the best defensive teams in the nation in what should be a low scoring game. Nebraska has allowed just 4.2 yards per play this season (to teams that would combine to 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team and the Cornhuskers have allowed just 11 points per game. Texas Tech managed to score 31 points against the Huskers, but 7 of that was a defensive touchdown on a fumble return and the Red Raiders only averaged 4.5 yppl in that game, so that point total is misleading. The Cornhuskers also allowed just 4.3 yppl and 16 points on the road against a good Virginia Tech attack and held other good offensive teams Missouri and Kansas to 2.9 yppl and 12 points and 4.8 yppl and 17 points, respectively.

Texas is a good offensive team, but they are not as good as their 43 points per game averaged suggests. The Longhorns have averaged a good, but not great 6.0 yppl this season, but quarterback Colt McCoy keeps drives alive with his clutch 3rd down passing, so they're actually better offensively than the 6.0 yppl number suggests. However, the Longhorns really struggled to move the ball against good defensive teams this season and they gained just 270 total yards at 3.5 yppl against an Oklahoma defense that is on par with Nebraska's dominating stop unit. For the season Texas faced 4 good defensive teams in Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Oklahoma State and the Longhorns averaged a modest 4.6 yppl in those 4 games, which is average considering that those 4 teams would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average offensive team. The Texas attack rated at 0.7 yppl better than average overall for the season, but all they abused bad defensive teams while rating at just average against the 4 good defensive teams that they faced while also averaging just 5.2 yppl against the mediocre defenses of Baylor and Colorado. Texas did average a 33 points in those 4 games against good defensive teams, but their offense only averaged 26 points, as the Horns scored on a punt return against Texas Tech, scored on a blocked punt against Missouri, and scored two non-offensive touchdowns against Oklahoma State. On the season Texas scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns, which is off the charts and is not something that is likely to continue in this game, especially considering that my special teams rating for Nebraska is actually better than my special teams rating for Texas. The Cornhuskers didn't allow any special teams touchdowns and allowed just one interception return TD and that 82 yard fumble return TD to Texas Tech when they didn't realize it was a lateral instead of a foward pass. In other words, I don't expect Texas to score their standard one non-offensive touchdown in this game. Nebraska's defense will pose a huge problem for Texas in this game and they're likely going to have to earn their points.

While the Texas offense is likely to struggle moving the ball in this game, the Cornhuskers will also have a tough time against a Texas defense that is actually 0.1 yppl better than Nebraska's dominating defense, as the Longhorns rate at 1.4 yppl better than average on defense (using only the stats when Texas' starters are playing). Nebraska is only 0.2 yppl better than average offensively with quarterback Zac Lee at the controls and my math model projects just 235 total yards at 4.2 yppl for the Huskers in this game. The Cornhuskers also faced 4 good defensive teams (Virginia Tech, Missouri, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma) and they were 0.1 yppl worse than average in those teams when Lee was at quarterback (4.5 yppl against teams that would allow 4.6 yppl to an average team). However, that's only 0.2 yppl worse than normal while the Texas offense was 0.7 yppl worse than their normal level when facing good defensive teams.

My math model favors Texas by just 10 points in this game and using a compensated points model with adjustments only favors the Longhorns by 12 points and that includes some of the luck they've had with non-offensive touchdowns this season. I'll call for a fair line of 11 points in this game and that doesn't even take into account how much worse the Texas offense has been, relatively, against good defensive teams. If 11 is the fair line then Nebraska has a profitable 57.7% chance of covering at +14 1/2 points (56.4% at +14 and 54.6% at +13 1/2) and I'll take Nebraska in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al's 5* college hoops play
Kentucky

[Mr. IWS]

Burns full card

8* s
Rutgers -2.5
Pitt +3
ECU+3

10* Shocker GOY South Florida +7.5
10* Champ GOY Clemson +1

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* Big East Payoff (13-3, 81% CFB run s/Nov 20)
Brian Kelly is probably college football's "hottest commodity" among head coaches. He led the Bearcats to a 21-6 record in his first two seasons at Cincy, including its first BCS bowl last season, an Orange Bowl loss to Virginia Tech. However, Kelly has taken his team's success a step further in 2009, as the Bearcats are 11-0 for the first time in school history and their No. 5 ranking in the AP poll marks a school-best. Pitt may have been caught looking ahead to this game last weekend, as the Panthers lost 19-16 at West Va. However, the good news for Dave Wannstedt's team is a win here and the Panthers are the Big East champs and are headed to the school's first BCS Bowl since they went to the Fiesta Bowl at the end of the 2004 season (lost to Utah 35-7). Like Thursday's "Civil War" in which it was a winner take all for a Rose Bowl bid between Ore St and Oregon, the Pitt-Cincinnati season finale is essentially the first de facto championship game the Big East has had in its 18-year history. Cincy QB Tony Pike made his first start last weekend since returning from an arm injury and threw for 399 yards and six TDs in a 49-36 win over Illinois on Friday. However, one has to wonder if the Bearcats are not a more balance team with sophomore QB Zach Collaros at the controls, as Cincy ran just four times in the first three quarters against the Illini. One of the main reasons that Cincy's 11-0 mark is such a surprise in 2009 is because the team returned just one defensive starter this year. The Bearcats allowed just 103 points over their first eight games (12.9 PPG) but have allowed 102 points over their last three games (34.0 PPG). I believe the Bearcats are ripe for an upset. Cincy won 28-21 last year at Nippert Stadium, ending Pitt's seven-game winning streak in the series. Last year's game marked the first time these two schools had met when BOTH were ranked. This year's game holds even higher stakes. Pitt QB Stull had two INTs last week at Morgantown but he's made major strides this year, He completed 57.0 percent of his passes with nine TDs and 10 INTs last year but has completed 64.9 percent this year, with 19 TDs and just six INTs. RB Dion Lewis has set a new Big East freshman record with 1,446 yards rushing (5.8 YPC / 13 TDs) and Pitt's running game (183.8 YPG / 5.2 YPC) could easily exploit Cincy's suddenly suspect defense. The Bearcats have allowed 190.7 yards rushing and 442.7 total yards in their past three games. As for Pitt's D, it ranks 15th in scoring (17.7 PPG) and 25th in total yards (319.6 YPG), while leading the nation with 43 sacks. Kelly's name was linked with vacancies at Tennessee and Washington last year. Now, with Notre Dame firing Charlie Weis, speculation about Kelly coaching the Irish has run rampant. "It's not comfortable for me," Kelly said. "It's not comfortable for those that are involved in it, but it's the reality of it. The only thing I can control is the message every day, and the message to our football players is about how we can become champions and how we can win football games." Anyone really think he's NOT leaving Cincinnati? This is obviously the biggest game of the season for both schools. However, Pitt is playing at home, owns the better defense and has a real chance to control the game and clock with RB Lewis. No upset here, as Pitt wins.Big East Payoff 20* Pitt.

[Mr. IWS]

spreitzer GOY

Florida

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

3% cinn
3% s.fla
4% w.virg

[Mr. IWS]

Root's Slam Dunk Club

Saturday, December 05, 2009
3*Utah State (-4½) over St MarysCA
9:05 PM -- Dee Glen Smith Spectrum

[Mr. IWS]

Burns' #1 NHL Game of the Week! (21-10 L31)
Saturday's all about football & basketball. That won't stop Ben Burns from making a BIG HOCKEY BET though. Ben celebrated his birthday IN STYLE yesterday, going 2-1 incl a winner with his 10* on Ohio. That brings him to a SIZZLING 7-1 (88%) his L8 CFB bets. He's also on a 21-10 RUN on the ice. Here's his #1 GAME OF THE WEEK!

7* FLYERS

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' 20* PERFECT STORM-CFB (9-3, 75% in CFB '09)-Sat
My 20* PERFECT STORM is on U Conn at 8:00 ET. USF (7-4) and U Conn (6-5) meet on Saturday with both teams trying to improve their bowl positions. For South Florida, the last three seasons have been deja vu. USF opened 6-0 in 2007 and opened as the No. 2 team in the nation in the first BCS standings but promptly lost its next three games. The Bulls would finish 9-4. In 2008, USF opened 5-0 but lost FIVE of its last seven regular season games before winning a bowl game to finish 8-5. This year, the Bulls again opened 5-0 but have lost FOUR of their last six games. U Conn is bowl-eligible for the third straight season, surviving the tragic death of Jasper Howard. Despite the loss of Donald Brown to the NFL's Colts (2,083 yards / 5.7 YPC / 18 TDs), the Huskies are still a run-first team, averaging 176.9 YPG (4.3 YPC / 27 TDs). Sophomore Todman has run for 1,079 yards (5.1 YPC / 14 TDs) and senior Dixon 917 yards (4.8 YPC / 11 TDs). In U Conn's first home game since Howard was stabbed to death outside a school dance on Oct 18, QB Cody Endres went down with an injury to his left shoulder against Rutgers. Backup QB Zach Frazer entered the game in the first quarter and threw for 333 yards and a TD. He led U Conn on two fourth-quarter TD drives after they trailed 21-10 (led 24-21). On a day Connecticut wanted badly to win for slain teammate Jasper Howard, one of Howard's best friends won it for Rutgers. WR Tim Brown, who grew up with Howard in Miami, scored on an 81-yard TD pass with 22 seconds left to give the Scarlet Knights an improbable 28-24 victory over the Huskies. The Huskies have won TWO of three games since, averaging 39.5 PPG. They lost 47-45 at Cincy, while beating Notre Dame 33-30 in two OTs at South Bend and won 56-31 over Syracuse in Storrs. Frazer has averaged a more modest 191.7 YPG the last three games but unlike in the game vs Rutgers (three INTs), he's thrown four TDs and just two INTs. Todman has averaged 138.3 YPG on the ground the last three games (six TDs) while Dixon has averaged 93.5 YPG with four TDs in his last two. U Conn's pass D has been a 'nightmare' over the last three games, allowing 389.7 YPG and not intercepting a single pass in 123 attempts. However, that shouldn't be a concern against USF's freshman QB, BJ Daniels (Grothe went down for the season early in the year). USF has split four home games (lost 34-17 to Cincy and 31-10 to Miami), while losing both road games (41-14 at Pitt and 31-0 at Rutgers) over their last six games (since that 5-0 start). Daniels has completed 11-of-25 passes (44.0%) for just 170 yards with zero TDs and four INTs in USF's two road games. How can U Conn's pass D be worried? Overall, USF has posted 18 total FDs and just 185.5 total YPG in those two road efforts. These schools are almost 1,300 miles apart (biggest difference any two in the Big East) and it should come as no surprise that the home team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the schools' four Big East meetings. PERFECT STORM 20* U Conn

[Mr. IWS]

Root cbb

Double Impact [Basketball]
Contains: 2 plays.


Utah St

MILLIONAIRES CLUB IS 18-4 TO START THE SEASON
18-4, 82% IS A FAIR SAMPLE OF ABSOLUTE PROOF THAT WAR IS ONE OF THE BEST IN COLLEGE B-BALL!! POUND THIS ONE!!
CHARLOTTE