12-6-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

50 DIME - DALLAS COWBOYS - (if your line is 2 1/2 you buy the half and lay 2, if it's 1 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 1. Don't ever get beat by the hook. - All Cowboys today.

First and foremost, when the Giants barely won the first meeting in Dallas on Sunday night week two, they were given 4 turnovers by the Cowboys, had a pair of 100 yard receiveing games from Manningham and Smith and still only won the game by 2 points 33-31.

Lost in the shuffle of Tony Romo's 13 of 29 performance for a 129 yards and 3 INT's, was the fact the Cowboys rushed for 251 yards against a pretty healthy Giants defense.

Now facing a Giants team that is reeling, and I do mean reeling as they have lost 5 of their last 6 SU and 0-6 ATS, this game today is flat out a case of two teams heading in opposite directions.

The big change for Dallas is offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and his decision to run the ball more and get Tony Romo in more favorable passing situations.

Also favoring the Cowboys here is the emergence of Austin at wide receiver thus opening up the middle for Witten.

The Giants are having huge problems on the defensive side of the football and you saw just how far they fell last Thursday at Denver.

You factor in Eli Manning not being 100% and you can see where things just weren't meant to be for the Giants this year.

Dallas has all the momentum in the world where New York doesn't and you can use all the pep talks you want but reality is reality, and when you have lost 5 of your last 6 games the reality is you are just not a very good football team.

Folks, you get to the 2nd half of the season and you have lost 5 of your last 6 games that tells me you just don't have it. Teams are attacking you where you are most vulnerable and there just isn't anything you can do to stop it.

There is a reason the Giants have allowed 14 sacks in their last 5 games. There offensive line is beat up and injured and their QB is masking the fact his foot is causing all kinds of problems.

As I already said above, this game today is about two teams heading in opposite directions and I will jump all over the team going the right way.

My 50 dimer today is on the Dallas Cowboys as they handle their business and get the job done against a free falling Giants team that will fall further into the abyss with this loss today.

25 DIME - NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS - (if line is 4 1/2 you buy the 1/2 and lay 4. - Feel sorry for the Dolphins today.

One of the worst things you can have to face as a football team in the NFL is facing a Bill Belichick team off a loss.

In their last 21 games off a SU loss the Patriots have won 18 of those. Think about that, 18-3 SU their last 21 off a loss.

Just look at this year and what they have done after their first 3 losses.

Off a 16-9 loss to the Jets they came back home and handled the Falcons 26-10 covering the 4 1/2 number. Off their 20-17 loss at Denver they came back home and just destroyed Tennessee 59-0.

And off their 35-34 loss at Indy, they came home to hammer the Jets 31-14.

Now they face a Dolphins team who starts 2 rookies at cornerback and an angry Tom Brady. Not a very good situation for the Dolphins at home.

In the first meeting 4 weeks ago, the Patriots won 27-17 in a game that really wasn't that close.

New England had 432 yards to the Dolphins 334, and it was only a broken play with Pat White at QB that set up the covering TD for the Dolphins.

I fully expect the blown coverages and assignments by the New England secondary on Monday night to be fully corrected against Chad Henne and an average at best receiving core of the Dolphins. This game sets up very well for New England.

Here is one more mind blowing statistic for you: New England has covered 13 of their last 15 conference road games. 13 of 15 folks.

That is good enough for me as Randy Moss and Wes Welker run wild on this very young and very beatable Miami secondary, Tom Brady has a huge day and New England runs away with a double digit win.

FREE SELECTION - ATLANTA FALCONS

[Mr. IWS]

Root:
10* Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
7* NY Giants +1
6* Kansas City Chiefs +6.5
GOM Arizona +3

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al McMordie

Cleveland Browns +14 (-110)

The Chargers may be playing the best football in the NFL, while the Browns have been pitiful, but this precise situation has made the hot team historically overvalued. Take the points.

This is one of those NFL games where you have to hold your nose before you plunk down hard-earned money on the Cleveland Browns, but it's also one of those games that tend to win more often than not.

Granted, the San Diego Chargers are playing great football and have won six straight games (covering their last four), while Cleveland is on a six-game losing streak. But since 1980, unrested NFL teams off six or more wins, and three or more point spread wins, are a horrid 32-63 ATS!

This system has had two plays already this season, and has gone 2-0. On November 1, the Indianapolis Colts were a 13-point favorite vs. the San Francisco 49ers (after winning six, and covering five straight games), yet won by a mere four points, 18-14.

And then, the following day, on Monday Night Football, the New Orleans Saints failed to cover against Atlanta as 11-point favorites for their first ATS loss of the season after starting 6-0 straight up and ATS.

Don't be surprised by a much closer game than expected. Take the points

[Mr. IWS]

Ness
Pittsburgh won Super Bowl XL in February 2006 but finished 8-8 the following regular season, missing out on the playoffs in coach Bill Cowher's final year. New head coach Mike Tomlin took just two seasons to lead Pittsburgh to another Super Bowl last year (an NFL record-setting sixth title) but his 2009 team seems to be dealing with a similar hangover. The Steelers have lost three straight games to fall to 6-5 and enter this Week 13 game looking to avoid their first four-game losing streak in five years. QB Ben Roethlisberger's absence last week due to a concussion stirred up some locker room controversy but "all systems are go" as he's expected to start on Sunday. Big Ben's return should be enough to spark the offense in this "must win" situation. The team's third-ranked defense (288.4 YPG) has blown fourth-quarter leads in consecutive overtime losses. The Steelers let KC drive 91 yards to a tying TD in Week 11 in a game the Chiefs would win 27-24 in OT. Then last Sunday night in Baltimore, after backup quarterback Dennis Dixon had given Pittsburgh a lead, the defense allowed the Ravens to march 84 yards for a tying FG, before Baltimore won 20-17 in OT. The good news is that the Oakland offense tends to cure all defensive woes.
JaMarcus Russell has been benched (two TDs and nine INTs and a QB rating of 47.7 which is almost as low as his completion percentage of 46.8). Bruce Gradkowski has taken over and threw for 183 yards and two TDs to lead Oakland to a 20-17 upset of Cincinnati on Nov. 22 and then had 200 yards and a TD at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day in a 24-7 loss. That game wasn't as close as the score indicated, as the Raiders did very little (14 FDs, converting just 4-of-15 third and fourth downs). Meanwhile, the Cowboys gained 494 yards, sparked by five plays of at least 40 yards and eight of at least 25 (no NFL team had done that since New Orleans in October 2006). The Raiders won their first road game of 2009 at KC 13-10 but have since lost their last four. Oakland is averaging just 9.8 PPG on the road this year, getting outgained on average, 412-to-188 yards. In the team's four straight road losses, Oakland has allowed 30.3 PPG. Seems like the perfect foil for the Steelers to me. Weekend Wipeout Winner on the Pit Steelers (7.5*).

: No one was quite sure how Brady would come back after missing the final 15 games of the 2008 season with his injury. He returned to throw for 378 yards in New England's season-opener against Buffalo (two late TD passes gave the Pats the win) but then averaged a modest 241.5 YPG with just four TD passes in the team's next four games (Pats stood just 3-2). However, the Pats rebounded to go 4-1 their next five games, losing only that SNF debacle at Indy (no recap needed!). Brady averaged 341 YPG in that stretch (topping 300 yards in each game), with 14 TDs and just four INTs. He completed 72.0 percent with the Pats averaging 37.2 PPG. There were issues with the running game and the defense (at times) but Brady is sure "all the way back!' Welker had 53 catches in those five games with Moss catching 33 for seven TDs and was averaging 18.7 YPC before getting held down by the Jets in Week 11. Then came last Monday's game at New Orleans. Brees had five TDs (zero INTs) and 371 yards in a 38-17 Saints win. Brady was 21-of-36 for a modest 237 yards without a TD pass and two INTs. Moss had three catches for 67 yards (zero TDs) and Welker had six catches for just 32 yards. All of a sudden, the Pats are just 7-4 and with a loss here to the 5-6 Dolphins, would be just one game up in the AFC East over both Miami and the Jets. The Dolphins are without Ronnie Brown but Ricky Williams is playing as if he's 25, gaining 119 and 115 yards rushing (with three TDs) in the two games since Brown was lost for the season. The 5-6 Dolphins have already lost more games than they did all of last season, when they went 11-5 and captured the AFC East for the first time since 2000, edging the Patriots in a tie-breaker (think Belichick and the Pats remember?). Miami is in "bounce-back" mode itself, after the Dolphins allowed 24 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to the Bills, losing 31-14 last week. The Dolphins were 'high' on QB Henne but have to be losing confidence in the Michigan product. He competed 70.8% of his throws (3-0 ratio) in winning his first two starts but he's 3-3 in his last six starts, completing just 49.5% of his passes for an average of only 177.3 YPG with a four-to-six ratio. Doesn't Brady vs Henne seem like a 'monster' mismatch? Let's look at how the Pats have reacted off a SU loss since 2003. The Pats famously opened that '03 season with a 31-0 loss at Buffalo. They won the next week and in their only other loss of 2003, followed it with a win and cover. The Pats lost just twice in 2004, going 2-0 SU and ATS after those losses. New England would lose six regular season games in 2005, following those losses by going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the very next game. The Pats lost four times in 2006, going 3-1 SU and ATS after a loss. Then came the 2007 season in which the Pats went 16-0. Brady went down for the year in Week 1 of 2008 but with Cassel taking over at QB, the Pats went 5-0 SU and 4-1 after their regular season losses. That's an incredible record of 18-1 SU and 16-3 ATS (84.2%) off a SU loss from 2003-08. The Pats lost at the Jets in Week 2 this season and "right on cue," beat the Falcons in their next game, 26-10 at minus-4 1/2. The Pats have also followed SU losses this year to Denver with a 59-0 win over the Titans and a 35-34 loss to the Colts with a 31-14 win over the Jets Updating the numbers, that makes the Pats 21-1 SU and 19-3 (86.4%) off a SU loss from 2003-09. Coming off that MNF 'spanking' at the hands of the Saints, look for the Pats to come through. Club-80 Play on the NE Pats (9*).

When the Colts and Titans met in Week 5, the Titans were a mess. Indy's 31-9 win dropped the Titans to 0-5 and the Colts moved to 5-0. The Titans would fall to 0-6 the following week with a 59-0 loss at New England but fortunately would have a bye week after that loss. Of course, the Colts have kept on winning. This Week 13 meeting features two of the hottest teams in the NFL. Indy became the first team to secure a playoff berth with last Sunday's come-from-behind 35-27 win over Houston and also clinched the AFC South title when the 49ers beat the Jags later in the day. The Colts are also getting closer to clinching the top seed in the AFC. I doubt anyone is unaware that the Colts have won 20 straight regular season games and with a win will tie the all-time record, held by the Pats (21 staright set from 2006-08). As for the Titans, Tennessee owner Bud Adams insisted that Vince Young replace Kerry Collins at QB after the Titans' bye week. The boss knew best! Young had a troubled season last year, while Kerry Collins led the Titans to a 13-3 mark, the best mark in the entire NFL. Young was very solid in the Titans' first four wins after the bye, completing 64.4 percent with three TDs and just one INT. He averaged a modest 155.8 YPG through the air but also showed an ability to run (146 yards and one TD in his first four starts). However, he had a "breakout performance" last week. He completed 27-of-43 for a career-high 387 passing yards vs Cards. Kenny Britt caught Vince Young's 10-yard pass in the back of the end zone as time expired to cap an 18-play, 99-yard drive, as Young converted three fourth downs on the final drive. While Young has been very good, RB Chris Johnson has been spectacular and a now-healthy Tennessee defense has made major strides. Johnson is the NFL's leading rusher with 1,396 yards. He ran for 154 yards against the Cardinals last week for his sixth straight game of at least 125, matching the NFL mark held by Earl Campbell (1980) and Eric Dickerson (1984). His 85-yard TD run late in the third quarter was his third TD of at least 85 yards this season. No other player in NFL history has that many in a career. How about that daily double? Tennessee's D was among the best in the NFL last year, allowing the 2nd-fewest points (14.6 PPG) and 293.6 YPG (7th-best). However, with injuries to its 2ndary, Tennessee allowed a ridiculous 304.7 YPG through six games, giving up 19 TD passes with just four INTs. However, with the return to health of a number of key players, Tennessee's allowed just a little over 200 YPG through the air the last five games with six TD passes allowed and seven INTs. After allowing 33.0 PPG through six games, the Titans have allowed just 18.2 PPG in their five-game winning streak. The Colts entered last week's game at Houston having won their previous four games by a total of just 10 points. Indy fell behind 17-0 in the second quarter against the Texans but trailed just 20-14 after three quarters before becoming the first team in league history to produce five straight fourth-quarter comeback wins. Do I really need to talk about Peyton? Will the Colts win again? Maybe but I'm riding the Titans and taking the points. The Colts luck is past due on running out and Indy has been extemely formful in 2009. While the Colts are 6-0 ATS on the road, they are just 1-4 ATS here at home. Revenge Rout on the Ten Titans (8*).

Al Skinner has had quite a coaching career so far. Skinner had led the Eagles to six NCAA bids over a seven-year span (averaged 23.4 wins per season) but the 2007-08 team was flop, falling to 14-17. However, it wa business a usual in Chestnut Hill last year, as the Eagles won 22 games and returned to the "Big Dance. Four starters return this year, although leading scorer Rice (16.9) is a huge loss. Junior PG Paris (6.7 PPG and 5.6 APG) isn't the scorer that Tyrese Rice was over the last three years but he is giving the Eagles solid play at the point. His 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio in the early going is actually better than Rice's last season, when he had 119 turnovers against 172 assists. Up front, 6-6 swingman Raji (16.2-7.4) leads the team in scoring joined by the 6-8 Trapani (15.1-8.1) and the 6-10 Southern (9.6-4.3). The 6-7 Roche (10.1) adds depth up front off the bench. Joining Paris in the backcourt is the multi-talented Jackson (14.6-8.0) and 6-5 sophomore Elmore (4.1). The Eagles are winning with defense, holding their opponents to 65.7 PPG, an improvement of nearly five points a game over last season. The Hurricanes come to town a perfect 8-0. The 6-8 Collins (12.9-8.8) leads in scoring and rebounding and is joined up front by the 6-7 Thomas (6.8), the 6-7 Jones (6.3) and the 6-9 McGowan (5.1-5.1). Like BC, Miami lost its leading scorer from last year in McClinton but the 'Canes are just fine on the perimeter. Dews (12.6) is the leading scorer of the group, joined by PG Grant (11.8-3.4 APG) and freshman Scott (8.6-5.3). This is the first ACC game for both teams but neither play another league foe until early January (weird sked). This will be Miami's first true road game, while BC opens an eight-game homestand which keeps them here in Boston until January 9. I didn't mention earlier that BC has opened 5-2 this year without 6-5 forward Rakim Sanders (12.9-4.4 last year), who was been out because of an ankle injury. The Eagles have won two games on the road (Providence and Michigan) and are actually a perfect 4-0 on the mainland, as its losses to Saint Joseph’s and Northern Iowa came in the Paradise Jam tournament in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Last year Miamai caught BC here at home in its very next ACC game after the Eagles had upset then-No. 1 North Carolina 77-71 and the 'Canes whupped the Eagles. This time around, the setting is much different as the 'Canes come in 8-0 and as mentioned, will be playing their first true road game. Al Skinner knows how to win games like this. Situational Mismatch on Bos College (9*).

The 49ers and Seahawks are not worrying about the postseason but the 49ers know a win here gets them to 6-6 and gives them a chance at the team's first winning season since 2002. As for the Seahawks, the biggest news is that Mike Holmgren may be back as the team's GM. That being said, I am not discounting Seattle's chances in this game at all. In fact, I believe the Seahawks should have a fairly easy time of it on Sunday. The 49ers beat the Seahawks 23-10 back in Week 2 at San Francisco, as RB Frank Gore had a season-high 207 yards rushing with two TDs. That was the last time the 49ers have won two in a row. Gore has missed two games since that Week 2 win and has just one, 100-yard effort in the seven that he's played in since, including just 92 yards in his last two outings. The 49ers may be thinking more pass these days, as Smith had 232 yards passing in a 20-3 win over Jacksonville last Sunday. San Francisco has 447 passing yards and 44 points in the last two games, after being held to 14 points in three of its previous five contests. However, let's not forget that Alex Smith is a dismal 13-22 (.371) as a starting QB in his NFL career, including 2-3 this year. Seattle had to play a third straight road game in Week 12 but the good news was that game was at St Louis and Seattle won 27-17. Justin Forsett ran for a career-high 130 yards and two TDs on 22 carries as the Seahawks rushed for a season-high 170 yards. Forsett has four TDs and has topped 100 yards twice in the last three games but starting RB Julius Jones is expected back this week. One too many RBs? We'll see. QB Matt Hasselbeck was knocked out of Seattle's first game with San Francisco, suffering broken ribs and a back injury which still haven't completely healed. However, Hasslebaeck is in pretty good shape and he's been excellent at home this year, except for the Arizona game (10-of-29 for 112 yards with one INT of a 27-3 loss). The Seahawks are 3-0 in Hasselbeck's other three home starts (he DNP in a home loss to Chicago), with Seattle averaging 33.7 PPG and Hasselbeck averaging 283 YPG with eight TDs and just three INTs. San Fran's pass D ranks 28th (257 YPG / 62.5% completions) and Hasslebeck is 8-4 as a starter against the 49ers in his career. The 49ers have lost all four road games since winning Week 1 at Arizona and there's no reason for that to change here, in a very tough home venue. NFC West Division Dominator on the Sea Seahawks (10*).

Let's hear it for Paul Westphal up in Sacramento. Martin, a 23.7 and 24.6 PPG scorer the last two seasons, underwent surgery on his injured left wrist and is expected to miss at least eight weeks (he was averaging 30.6 points in five games). The 6-7 Francisco Garcia will also miss at least the first four months of the season after undergoing surgery on his injured forearm and wrist (scored 12.3 and 12,7 PPG the last two years). Despite theses MAJOR losses, the Kings are 9-9 and an impressive 13-5 ATS. Last night's 115-107 loss at Phoenix (but cover), is the perfect example of the VAST improvement of this team. The Kings were in a terrible spot. They were coming off a 4-0 homestand and catching the high-scoring Suns off their first back-to-back losses of the season, playing at home where the Suns had averaged 118.5 PPG this season. What's more, the Suns had won 12 of 14 overall in the series, winning Sacramento's last seven visits to Phoenix by an average margin of 24.5 PPG. However, the Suns could never shake the Kings, who were led by rookie Evans (21-6-7) and former Chicago forward Nocioni (20 points). Evans (19.4-5.1-4.9) has been even better than advertised while Beno Udrih (13.8-3.9 APG) has also been terrific. Rodriguez has suddenly become a scoring option off the bench (13.0 PPG in his last six games) plus the team's two 6-11 big men, Thompson (14.4-9.1) and Hawes (11.6-6.7), are exceeding expectations as well. I've always liked Nocioni (11.9-4.1) from his Chicago days and Casspi, a 6-9 rookie from Israel, is averaging 10.1 PPG and 3.8 RPG. The Heat opened the new season 6-1 SU and ATS but will come into this game just 3-7 their last 10 games and going back further, are 3-9 ATS in their last 12. Miami finished the 2007-08 season with the NBA's worst record (15-67) but Wade led the NBA in scoring last year (30.2 PPG), carrying the Heat back to the playoffs. Wade is averaging 26.7-5.2-5.9 this year, teamed with Beasley (15.2-6.8), who has greatly improved in his second season plus a healthy O'Neal (14.3-8.1). However, O'Neal is expected to miss this game for personal reasons, leaving the Heat short. Haslem (10.1-7.8) has been coming off the bench but will likely start with Chalmers (10.1-4.0 APG) joining Wade in the starting backcourt and Richardson (8.0-5.0) starting at the small forward spot. The Kings have lost 10 of their last 11 vs the Heat but this is a different year and a different team. The Kings finished an NBA-worst 17-65 overall last year but are off to a 9-9 (13-5 ATS) start in 2009-10, including 8-2 SU and ATS at home. At the end of a four-game road trip and without O'Neal, the Heat fall to the surprising Kings in this one and the "price is sure right!" Sunday Night Delight on the Sac Kings (8*).

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB

2 Star Selection
NY GIANTS (+2.5) 26 Dallas 20
06-Dec-09 01:15 PM Pacific Time
This game reminds me a bit of my Best Bet win on Denver over the Giants last week. New York has gone 1-5 straight up and 0-6 ATS since starting the season 5-0 straight up and people have suddenly concluded that the Giants are a bad team. Just like Denver wasn't a bad team because they lost 4 in a row the Giants aren't a bad team either. New York has actually been slightly better than average from the line of scrimmage during their 6 game spread losing streak, rating at 0.2 yards per play worse than average offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) but rating at 0.3 yppl better than average on defense (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average defense). I chalk up some of that mediocre performance as nothing more than negative variance and I still believe that New York is a better than an average team just like I felt the Broncos were still a good team heading into last week's game.

New York still rates at 0.2 yppl better than average offensively for the season (+0.1 yppl if RB Ahmad Bradshaw does not play) and their defense is 0.5 yppl better than average for the season. I realize that leading tackler Antonio Pierce is out for the rest of the season (he's missed the last two games), but while Pierce was a solid run defender he was a liability in pass coverage and his value is negligible. The key to the Giants defense may be LB Michael Boley, who actually leads the team in tackles per game at 6.5 (Pierce is second at 6.1) and is good in pass coverage (he's broken up 4 passes and has 1 sack in 6 games while Pierce has just 3 passes defended and 1 sacks in 9 games). The Giants were 0.1 yppl worse than average in the 6 games that Boley has missed and they've been 0.9 yppl better than average in the 6 games that he has played. Boley returned in week 9 and the defense played great in holding San Diego's explosive attack to just 4.3 yppl and they then held a good Falcons' offense to just 4.6 yppl in week 11. I didn't expect them to play well last week in Denver and they didn't, but allowing 5.6 yppl at Denver is not a bad effort since the Broncos would average 5.7 yppl at home against an average team. Rather than make the Giants 0.9 yppl better than average defensively when doing my math on this game I decided to use the last two games with Pierce out and the Giants' rating in those two games is 0.6 yppl better than average.

Dallas is 1.1 yppl better than average offensively, so they still have an edge over New York's defense, but the Cowboys' defense is nothing special - rating at average against the run and just 0.2 yppl better than average against the pass if you take out the 330 yards at 8.7 yards per pass play that the Giants amassed against them in week 2 when top CB Michael ******* was out. Overall, my math favors Dallas by 1 1/2 points in one model and my other model makes this game a pick, which was the opening line. Either way, we have a bit of line value favoring the Giants and New York applies to a very good 33-4-2 ATS subset of a 94-39-4 ATS bounce-back situation. The Giants also apply to a very good 80-34-2 ATS statistical match-up indicator. Also, losing 5 or more consecutive games to the spread usually signals the time when teams start to play better, as well as being about the time when the public has given up on a team, which supplies line value going with the slumping team. Teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games to the spread and are coming off a straight up loss are 17-0 ATS since November of 2006 as long as they're not favored by more than 3 points. This looks like the week the Giants turn their season back around and Dallas having revenge is not a negative, as teams at .500 or better seeking same season revenge against a team with a win percentage of less than .600 are only 78-113-5 ATS over the years. Dallas has also been favored on the road twice against winning teams this season and they lost both of those games straight up, 10-17 at Denver and 7-17 at Green Bay a few weeks ago. I'll take New York in a 2-Star Best Bet at +1 or more and for 3-Stars if the line goes up to +3 (at -115 odds or better).

2 Star Selection
ARIZONA (+3.5) 27 Minnesota 23
06-Dec-09 05:25 PM Pacific Time
The Vikings are 10-1 and have rolled to 3 easy wins over sub-par teams since their bye week. However, Minnesota hasn't been tested too often this season and the Vikings' 5 games against good teams have all been competitive. Minnesota needed a final play long touchdown pass to beat San Francisco 27-24 in week 3 at home. The Vikes beat Green Bay the next week at home 30-23 but were out-gained 5.6 yppl to 6.8 yppl. In week 6 at home against Baltimore the Vikings squeaked out a 33-31 win but were out-gained 6.8 yppl to 7.1 yppl and didn't cover. The next week at Pittsburgh the Vikings were out-gained 5.0 yppl to 5.4 yppl in a loss to the Steelers. The only game against a good team in which the Vikings out-played their opponent from the line of scrimmage was their week 8 38-26 win over Green Bay, in which the Vikes averaged 5.9 yppl and allowed 5.2 yppl. Minnesota won just 2 of those 5 games against good teams by more than 3 points and they were out-gained 5.6 yppl to 5.9 yppl in those games.

Arizona hasn't faced many good teams either and their results in those games have been mixed, but the Cardinals have a history of rising to the occasion, especially at home, as they are 20-9-2 ATS under coach Ken Wisenhunt in games in which they are favored by less than 3 points or getting points, including 4-1-1 ATS this season. The Cardinals are 6-2 straight up as a home underdog or pick under Wisenhunt, although they did lose this season as a small home favorite to the unbeaten Colts.

I addition to the Cardinals' history of playing well against good teams the Vikings apply to a number of road letdown situations, including a 31-80-3 ATS angle and a 19-57 ATS situation that plays against road teams that are 3 games or more better than .500 after winning 3 or more consecutive games when visiting a winning team that is coming off a loss. After beating up on 3 bad teams I don't think the Vikings will be ready to play a good team on the road. In fact, teams that win and cover against a losing team in 3 consecutive weeks are 0-10 straight up and 0-10 ATS when visiting a winning team the next week. Arizona coming off that last second road loss to a hot Tennessee team also helps their chances this week, as the Cardinals are 3-0 ATS after a loss this season and 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS at home after a loss under Wisenhunt (3-0 straight up as a home dog or pick).

My math model favors Minnesota by 2 points with Kurt Warner starting at quarterback for the Cardinals and by 3 1/2 points if it's Matt Leinart behind center, although Leinart played very well last week at Tennessee (6.8 yards per pass play and no interceptions against a good Titans' secondary). Warner missed last week's game due to lingering issues with a concussion he suffered the previous week, but he's been practicing all week this week and should play. Of course, he was supposed to have played last week too, but woke up on Sunday with a stiff back. I like the Cardinals even with Leinart, but I'd like it more if I knew Warner was going to play the entire game and he's listed as a game time decision. I'll take Arizona in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.
NFL Strong Opinions
CINCINNATI (-13.0) 31 Detroit 13
06-Dec-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Detroit is 0-5 ATS on the road this season with an average losing margin of 19.4 points. Cincinnati has only had one blowout win this season and they're 0-3 ATS against bad teams (0-2 ATS against Cleveland and lost at Oakland), but both of my math models give Cincy more than a 56% chance of covering the spread in this game.

The Bengals should certainly be able to move the ball, as their slightly worse than average attack (5.2 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) has a big advantage over a horrible Lions' defense that has surrendered 6.4 yppl and 30.5 points per game this season. That unit has been even worse lately due to numerous injuries in the secondary and Carson Palmer is certainly still good enough to take advantage.

Detroit's offense has averaged just 4.7 yppl this season (against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl) and they rate at 0.5 yppl worse than average in game with star WR Calvin Johnson healthy. In addition to being bad at moving the ball the Lions' rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford continues to throw interceptions at an alarming rate (18 in 9 games). Cincinnati has allowed just 15.8 points per game and they've allowed 14 points or less in 6 of their 11 games, so I don't see the Lions getting more than 14 points in this game.

My math model gives the Bengals a 55.7% chance of covering at -13 points and I'll consider Cincinnati a Strong Opinion at -13 1/2 points or less.
Tampa Bay (+5) 20 CAROLINA 21
06-Dec-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Tampa Bay is an improving team that has covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games and is likely to cover again this week. The Bucs still rate at 0.6 yards per play worse than average offensively with Josh Freeman at quarterback but the defense has improved since being confused with the new schemes early in the season. The secondary has been particularly solid lately, giving up more than 5.8 yards per pass play only once in their last 4 games and that was a game in which they held the Saints Drew Brees to just 6.4 yppp (he averages over 8 yppp for the season). The secondary would take a hit if top CB Aquib Talib is unable to play due to an injured hamstring and he appears to be a game time decision. That improving secondary will be up against a lightly experienced backup, as Matt Moore steps in for veteran Jake Delhomme for the Panthers this week (Delhomme has a broken finger). Moore started several games in 2007 when Delhomme was injured and he did a decent job. In fact, Moore's career yards per pass play average of 5.7 yppp is actually higher than Delhomme's average this season. I don't think Moore will improve the Panthers' struggling offense, but he could.

Tampa's sub-par attack could struggle more than usual against a solid Panthers' defense but my math model favors Carolina by just 5 1/2 points, which is what the point spread is. The reason for favoring Tampa Bay in this game is a technical. The Buccaneers apply to a very good 68-17-4 ATS situation and a 70-21 ATS situation that both play on losing teams as a road dogs after a loss when facing another losing team.

I'm going to resist making this game a Best Bet because it doesn't look likely that Talib will play and he held Panthers' star WR Steve Smith to just 1 catch in the first meeting. I actually adjusted my math assuming Talib will be out, but I'm concerned that he could be worth more than I adjusted for. I'll consider Tampa Bay a Strong Opinion based on the strong situation.
Denver (-5.0) 27 KANSAS CITY 16
06-Dec-09 10:00 AM Pacific Time
I mentioned last week that Denver really hadn't been playing as poorly as their results during their 4 game losing streak and the Broncos are certainly better than an improving but still bad Chiefs' team. The improvement for Kansas City is on offense, as the rushing attack is better without Larry Johnson and the pass attack has been better since Chris Chambers arrived from San Diego in a trade. However, the suspension of top WR Dwayne Bowe almost takes away the entire value from the addition of Chambers. My math model favors Denver by 7 points, as Denver's mediocre offense should move the ball well against a bad Chiefs' defense (6.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) while the stout Broncos' defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team) limits a still bad KC attack that I rate at 0.6 yppl worse than average even with the recent improvements. There are situations that favor both sides, but Denver applies to a 36-6-4 ATS situation that is stronger than the 41-19 ATS angle that the Chiefs apply to. Kansas City still only 5-31 straight up in their last 36 games and the Chiefs are 0-9 ATS when not an underdog more than 6 points against a team with a win percentage of .400 or higher. In other words, the Chiefs usually need more than 6 points to cover against average or good teams. I'll consider Denver a Strong Opinion at -5 or less in this game and as a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
CLEVELAND (+13.5) 17 San Diego 24
06-Dec-09 01:05 PM Pacific Time
San Diego has won 6 consecutive games and is coming off consecutive blowout wins over divisional foes Denver and Kansas City. If ever there was a time to relax this would be it - facing a horrible Cleveland team as a big favorite. Teams on a winning streak that won at home the previous week are just 17-43-2 ATS as road favorites of 10 points or more, so history certainly has proven this to be a flat spot for the Chargers. This season teams in that spot are 1-2 ATS with Philadelphia losing straight up at Oakland, New Orleans struggling to beat the Rams 28-23 and Green Bay beating up on Detroit on Thanksgiving (national TV generally helps to avoid a letdown, as the angle is just 4-6 on Thursday and Monday games). The Chargers also apply to a negative 25-66 ATS situation that plays against big favorites after winning and covering consecutive divisional games (Cincy losing straight up at Oakland applied to that angle). Both of my math models favor San Diego by only 11 1/2 points, so it appears as if there is some line value to go along with the favorable situations. I'll consider Cleveland a Strong Opinion at +12 points or more and I'd take Cleveland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more.