12-10-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns 12/10

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns Dec 10 2009 8:20PM

PICK: under Your pick will be graded at: 36.5
SPORTSBETTING EXPERT: Ben Burns TITLE: *78% YTD* Burns MAIN EVENT (HUGE 20-7 RUN!) REASON FOR PICK: I'm playing on Pittsburgh and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Thursday NFL games have been very profitable for 'under' bettors this season. In what figures to be a cold and stormy December night at Cleveland, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair this week. Note that even with last week's game finishing above the total, the UNDER is still 4-1 the last five times that the Browns played a home game in the month of December and a profitable 9-1-2 their last dozen December games overall.

These teams faced each other at Pittsburgh back in mid-October. That game finished 'over' the total with the Steelers winning by a 27-14 margin. However, it easily could have been lower-scoring. For starters, the Browns were extremely fortunate to even score 14 points, as they only gained 109 total yards of offense for the game. Seven of their points came on a 98-yard Cribbs kick return. While Pittsburgh did put up very big yards, the Steelers scored three of their points thanks to a very questionable call, where the referee awarded them a first down, on a 4th and short, which should have given the Browns the ball. Cleveland players were furious and even Pittsburgh players acknowledged that they got a break. Additionally, note that Hines Ward scored a touchdown and had eight receptions for a whopping 159 yards. That's worth mentioning as Ward has a strained hamstring and is currently "very questionable," according to Coach Mike Tomlin. Even if he does play, its unlikely that he'll come close to matching what he did in the Week 6 meeting.

Yes, the earlier game did find its way above the total. However, both last season's meetings between these teams finished below the number, each producing 31 points or less. The most recent game here at Cleveland finished with a mere 16 combined points, a 10-6 Pittsburgh victory last season.

I played on the Browns vs. San Diego last week, so was happy to see them score enough points to cover the spread. However, it should be noted that they scored their final touchdown right at the end of the game and that they only had seven points through three quarters. Prior to that, they'd scored seven points or less in four of their previous five games. Their 12.1 points per game ranks second worst in the AFC And third worst in the NFL. Only Oakland and St. Louis are worse and the Browns are barely ahead of either of them. In terms of total yards, they're dead last. They're also dead last in terms of yards per play and they rank second worst, in terms of first downs. In other words, this offense is really bad.

Now, the Browns will face a Pittsburgh defense that still ranks in the top 5 in the league, in terms of yards allowed, and which is surely going to be upset, after giving up so many (27) points to Oakland last week. Note that Pittsburgh is allowing only 270 yards per game vs. division opponents. The Browns are averaging just 221 yards in their division games, managing a mere 8.8 points.

Yes, the number is low. However, I feel that it could (and should) be even lower. I expect the UNDER to improve to 7-2 the last nine times that the Browns were underdogs of greater than eight points. *9 Main Event

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG
Thursday's Selection...
25 DIME - ORLANDO MAGIC - All is not well with the Utah Jazz

When you face your arch-rival on the road the night before, and score a total of 6 points in the 4th quarter and get routed by 24, I don't care who you are, it is going to leave a mark both mental and emotional.

Now you have to get right back after it and face a surging Magic squad that not only won 6 in a row, and 11 of their last 12, but how about 7 straight road wins.

They took care of the Warriors and Clippers on this road trip so far, and what makes this even a tougher spot for the Jazz is the Magic are well rested.

They played the Knicks on the 2nd, the Warriors on the 5th and the Clippers on the 8th. Talk about a cake walk of a road trip. Most people roll into Utah on back- to-back nights but not Orlando.

It is very rare that an East Coast team gets this much time off between games on a west coast road trip, and because of this and Orlando being red hot, I have to make them my biggest NBA play of the entire year.

In a game that sees the Magic being the small favorite, I just can't see the Jazz getting over what happened last night in LA.

15 DIME - PITTSBURGH STEELERS - The Browns are just what the doctored ordered for an ailing Pittsburgh Steelers team.

When you have beaten a team 12 in a row and covered 10 of those, I've learned over the years that when these two meet, you lose with the Steelers simple as that.

In the first meeting the Steelers dominated this Browns team to the tune of 543 yards of total offense in a 27-14 win but didn't cover the 14 point number courtesy of a Joshua Cribbs kickoff return for a TD.

Big Ben threw for over 400 yards on this Browns defense and he had guys open all night long and I don't see the Browns doing anything to stop him again tonight.

Cleveland got the miracle cover last Sunday putting up 2 fourth quarter TD's on the Chargers after trailing 30-7 and even in that game Rivers threw for almost 400 yards on them.

Don't be fooled by anything Brady Quinn and this Browns offense has done the last few weeks. Yes, he was good against the Lions but remember folks, we are still talking about the Detroit Lions.

How soon we forget 2 weeks ago at Cincinnati the Browns had 169 yards total offense, 58 on the ground and 111 in the air.

I fully expect the Steelers to get their swagger back against a team they flat out own, and if you think the defending Super Bowl champs are going to lay an egg here then you don't know their head coach very well.

Tonight the Steelers do what they always do against the Browns and that is beat them by 2 touchdowns or more and keep their playoff hopes alive.

FREE SELECTION - SYRACUSE ORANGEMEN

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS CBB
7* ESPN BEATDOWN!
FLORIDA GATORS (+3) over Syracuse Orangemen

***BEN BURNS*** Basketball (NCAA) for Thursday: FLORIDA Game: Syracuse vs. Florida Game Time: 12/10/2009 9:00:00 PM

Prediction: Florida Reason: I'm taking the points with FLORIDA. Both these teams lost their top scorer from last year. However, both are still a perfect 8-0 to start the season. With this game being played at Tampa, I expect it to be Florida which maintains its perfect record. Many haven't realized it yet but the Gators are much better than they were last year. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim knows it though. He was quoted as saying: "Florida is very good. I think they're really a much better team than they were last year..." Behind a big game from Jonny Flynn, now in the NBA, the Orange won last year's meeting (at Kansas) by six points. Syracuse shot 51.7% in that game. The main area where the Gators are improved this year is on the defensive side of the ball. Thus far, Florida opponents are shooting a mere 38.7 percent. While this is technically a "neutral court" game, naturally the crowd will favor the Gators. Note that they're 4-2 all-time at the St. Pete Times Forum. Also, the Gators are a profitable 7-1-1 ATS the last nine times that they were neutral court underdogs (or pick'em) of three points or less. Additionally, note that the Orange typically play most of their non-conference games fairly close to their own campus. Of their eight games this year, six have come at home and two have come at Madison Square Garden. While the Orange are certainly worthy of respect, this will be an entirely different atmosphere than they've seen so far this season. The Gators have already beaten some very tough teams. They also already knocked off a team (Rutgers) from the Big East. They're now 15-7 against teams from the Big East under coach Billy Donovan. A win against the Orange would do wonders for the Gators, come March. I expect them to rise to the occasion, continuing their terrific start, and avenging last year's loss. *7

[kreekor]

BEN BURNS

Game: Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards Dec 10 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: Washington Wizards

Reason: I'm taking the points with WASHINGTON. With the Celtics on an eight game winning streak and with the Wizards having lost two in a row, many will hesitate to back the home underdog here. That sentiment has provided us with plenty of line value. A closer look at Boston's eight game winning streak shows that only three of the victories came by more than nine points. They won the other five games by an average of less than six points. Looking back a little further and we find them at just 7-11 ATS, dating back to the beginning of November. While the Wizards are off back to back losses, both those defeats came by four points or less. In fact, each of their last four games has been decided by four points or less - they went 2-2 in those games. Looking back further and we find that the Wizards have won four of their last seven games. Of those seven games, only one resulted in a loss of greater than four points. That lone lopsided loss (11/28 at Charlotte) came when the Wizards were playing the second of back to back games. Tonight, however, the Wizards are very well rested - they haven't played since 12/6. I believe that the fact that the Wizards haven't played since 12/6 is significant. Note that the last time that they played, after having the previous three days off, came vs. Cleveland on 11/18. Listed as +3.5 underdogs, they Wizards won outright. In fact, they crushed the Cavs by a score 108-91. Coincidentally, the Wizards were coming off a 3-point lss vs. Detroit, prior to their break. This time, they're coming off a 4-point loss, vs. those same Pistons. While the Wizards are well-rested, the same cannot be said for the Celts. Yes, they did have last night off. However, they're also in the midst of playing seven of their last eight games on the road. While he's not one of the "Big 3,' note that the Celts will be without guard Marquis Daniels. The Wizards do allow just slightly over 100 points per game. However, with Arenas, Jamsion and Butler all averaging more than 16.5 points per game, (Arenas and Jamison average more than 20) they can also trade points with the best of them. Additionally, the Celtics are just 3-8 ATS their last 11 against teams which allow 99 or more points. They're also only 3-6 ATS vs. sub-500 teams. I expect another one which comes down to the wire. *9 Best Best

[kreekor]

DR BOB (Pitt/Clev)

Strong Opinion OVER
OVER (32.5) - Pittsburgh (-10) 25 CLEVELAND 15
Pittsburgh has lost 4 consecutive games and last week's home loss to the Raiders should have the Steelers not taking this game for granted. Cleveland covered for me as a Strong Opinion last week with a decent offensive performance against San Diego (372 yards at 5.4 yards per play and 23 points), but the Browns are in dire straights defensively. Cleveland went from bad to worse defensively when leading tackler LB D'Qwell Jackson was lost for the season to injury in week 6, but the secondary is now defenseless with their two best pass defenders out this week. FS Brodney Pool leads the team with 10 passes defended and 4 interceptions and the Browns were torched for 386 yards at 14.3 yards per pass play without Pool in the lineup last week. Pool is out for the rest of the season and will be joined on the sideline this week by top CB Eric Wright, who is the only other player on the team other than Pool with an interception (he has 2 picks) and is second in passes defended with 9. WR Hines Ward is out for the Steelers this week, but #3 wide out Wallace has averaged 9.3 yards per pass thrown to him, which is slightly better than Ward's 9.1 ypa average. Of course, Ward gets a lot of double-teams so I did downgrade Pittsburgh's pass rating for this game with Ward out. However, Ben Roethlisberger should light up a thin Browns' secondary that was bad even with Pool and Wright.
Not only will Pittsburgh be able to move the ball better than projected but Cleveland's offense is perking up a bit and the Steelers' defense is 0.7 yards per play worse in games without star S Troy Polamalu than they are with him. The adjustment versus their season stats is 0.3 yppl with Polamalu still out and Pittsburgh's league worst kickoff coverage team is up against Cleveland's top notch kickoff return team. Joshua Cribbs has returned 3 kickoffs for touchdowns in his career against Pittsburgh, including a 98 yard return in a 14-27 loss at Pittsburgh earlier this season. Derek Anderson was quarterbacking the Browns in that first meeting and Brady Quinn, while still bad, is considerably better than Anderson was and Cleveland has a chance to score a decent number of points given the good field position that Cribbs should give them with his returns.
My math model favors Pittsburgh by 12 points in this game, but Cleveland applies to a 102-47-2 ATS situation that plays on bad teams on a long losing streak.
Before any adjustments, I would have made the over/under on this game 38 1/2 points using a compensated points model and the total opened at 38 points. The total has since gone way down due to what is expected to be cold, wet and windy conditions. However, both defenses are worse now than their season numbers suggest, Quinn at quarterback for Cleveland is an improvement, and Ward being out for Pittsburgh isn't likely to be much of an issue. Those adjustments lead to an additional 5.3 points, which would give me a projection of 44 total points before adjusting for wind and snow. If I assume that the market is correct in lowering the line by 5 points for the weather then I would get 39 points as my projected total, so there is value on the over in this game even with the bad weather factored in. Pittsburgh is 6-1 Over without Polamalu in the lineup, as the defense isn't as good and the offense tends to be more aggressive when the defense isn't as trustworthy. I'll consider the Over a Strong Opinion at 34 points or less.

[Mr. IWS]

Burns

NFL:

U Browns/Steelers 9*

NHL:

Flyers 5*

U NASH/CBJ 7*

NCAA:

Florida 7*

NBA:

Wizards 9*

[Mr. IWS]

root

vegas legend pittsburgh steelers

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Millionaire Montana

[Mr. IWS]

dr bob
2 Star Selection
Orlando (-2 1/2) over UTAH
10-Dec-09 07:35 PM Pacific Time
based on the line value.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -3 or less.