12-11-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[kreekor]

Brandon Lang ::beatup::

15 DIME - NEW YORK KNICKS - Love the way this team is playing basketball right now.

They have won 3 in a row, and 4 of their last 5 both SU and ATS and these weren't cheap victories.

I'm talking Phoenix, Portland, and Atlanta, and now with building confidence they are facing a New Orleans team that hasn't exactly been a cash cow this year.

Hornets have failed to cover 3 straight, and 4 of their last 5 against the likes of the Timberwolves (twice), the Kings (twice), with the only cover at LA catching 15 1/2 and losing by 11.

Now you are asking them to cover close to a 7 number against a Knicks team playing without question their best ball of the year.

The final nail in the coffin for me is the Knicks have covered 4 straight in this series and it wouldn't suprise me if they won the game outright tonight.

5 DIME - MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES - Both these teams are playing well, but it's the overall body of work by this Memphis team which has me backing them tonight.

The Grizzlies are rolling, beating the Mavs by double digits, and coming perhaps their best effort of the year taking care of the Cavs in OT.

Those 2 home wins put them at 6-3 SU and ATS on the home hardwood, and the 3 losses were to the Pistons to open the season, Portland and the Milwaukee Bucks.

Bottom line is when you start beating teams like the Mavs and Cavs and holds Dallas to 82 points while doing so, you are doing a lot of things right.

Oklahoma City is also playing well, but fact of the matter is I don't like them in this spot here against a team that is just as athletic and playing with a lot of confidence.

And with the favorite covering 9 of the last 11 in this series, I am siding with the small home chalk here.

FREE SELECTION - OLD DOMINION MONARCHS

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' 10* NBA Total of the Month

Game: New Jersey Nets at Indiana Pacers Dec 11 2009 7:05PM
Prediction: over

Reason: I'm playing on New Jersey and Indiana to finish OVER the total. These teams have both played some tough defensive teams recently and that's led to some relatively low-scoring games. I expect both to find the going much easier, on the offensive end of the floor, this evening. The Pacers last game came against Portland. The Blazers allow the fewest points in the entire Western Conference. While that game did manage to find its way above the low total, the Pacers still managed only 91 points - allowing 102. Their previous two games came on the road, against the Clippers and Jazz. Both those teams rank in the top half of the league, in terms of points allowed per game. Prior to that, however, they'd faced a pair of weaker defensive teams (Sacramento and Golden St) and they'd seen those games finish with combined scores of 215 and 233. Here, they'll face a NJ team which is allowing an average of 104 points over its last five games and I expect the offense to get back on track. Note that even with the recent low-scoring games, five of the Pacers' last nine have still finished above the number. The Nets didn't score many points against a normally defensively-challenged Golden State team last time out. They did give up 105 though, which marked the sixth time in their last seven games which they allowed triple-digits in scoring. Four of their last six games have come against teams which allow double-digits in scoring (Charlotte, Dallas, LA Lakers, Chicago) but tonight they'll be facing an Indiana team which allows 101.7 on the season and which is allowing an average of 104.4 over its last five games. Note that even with the Golden State game finishing below the total, the OVER is still a profitable 4-2-1 the Nets' last seven games. Also, note that they've scored a minimum of 97 in four of their last five. Opponents are shooting a very healthy 49.2% against them, during that stretch. While this season's earlier meeting (at NJ) between these teams did stay below the total, the OVER remains a lucrative 14-6 the last 20 meetings in the series. The last time that the Nets traveled to Indiana, the teams combined for 215 points. In fact, the OVER is 9-1 the last 10 times that these teams played against each other here. Overall, the Nets have been a profitable 'under' team this year. However, that hasn't been the case when they've been in the role that they are tonight. In fact, the OVER is 3-1 when they've been listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Looking back further and we find the OVER at a profitable 10-5 the last 15 times that they were in that role. I expect those stats to improve with this evening's combined score finishing above the 200 mark. *10 TOM

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns' 8* BEST BET (7:00 ET)

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (+3) over Houston Rockets

Reason: I'm taking the points with PHILADELPHIA. As you're probably aware, the 76ers are currently mired in a slump. However, they've had some recent success vs. tonight's opponent and I feel that this will be a great spot for them to finally break back into the win column. While they've been losing, the 76'ers have continued to fight hard. Wednesday's loss came down to the wire. They were tied very late in the game before eventually losing by four. Note that they're already 2-0 ATS on the season when coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Even with Wednesday's loss, the 76'ers are still a respectable 6-4 ATS their last 10 games. Nine of their last 13 games have been decided by six points or less. The Rockets are off a big win over the Cavaliers. That was at home though and they were catching Cleveland off an overtime game the previous night. Note that their last two road games were both decided by two points or less. Looking at the series history between these teams and we find that the 76ers were a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS against the Rockets the past two seasons. Note that they were underdogs in all four of those games. They shot above 50% while averaging greater than 102 points. They won the two games here at Philadelphia by eight and 12 points, respectively. While I respect the Rockets, I expect the 76ers to elevate their game and continue their strong recent play in this series. Given the number of close games that both have been playing recently, I'll grab the points. However, I look for 76'ers to come away with the outright win, finally snapping their skid. *8 Best Bet