12-13-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

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[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns
4 Unit Play. #12 Take Houston -6 over Seattle (Sunday 1 pm Fox) The Texans will not be making the playoffs this season but they have too much talent to throw in the towel for the rest of the season. They are a couple of missed field goals away from being in playoff contention and will likely make a coaching change at the end of this season. The Texans now play the Seahawks, a team that is just 1-5 on the road this season. Seattle never does well when traveling east and the time difference will once again catch up with them. Houston gets back on track with a double digit victory. Houston 31, Seattle 20.

4 Unit Play. #28 Take Oakland +1 over Washington (Sunday 4:05 pm Fox) This is a battle of team that will likely have new coaches next year this afternoon in Oakland, CA. The Raiders really have some impressive victories this season against Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia and that is a lot more then what the Redskins bring to the table. Washington did everything right last week except finish and the Saints found a way to beat them in overtime. Oakland has played better with QB Gradkowski and expect them to take care of business in the black hole. The Skins must make a long flight and it will cost them in the end. Oakland 21, Washington 16.

5 Unit Play. #33 Take Arizona -3 ½ n Francisco (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) Teams in the NFC West had a chance to put away the Cardinals early in the season but that did not happen and now the birds have turned it around in a major way. Arizona has won four of their last five games and is 5-1 on the road this season. Their only road loss came at the end to Tennessee in a game that Kurt Warner did not play. The 49ers saw their playoffs hopes end last week with their loss to Seattle and now they are just playing out the season. QB Smith has looked good at times, but just does not win games and that is the bottom line in this business. Arizona has too many weapons and they lock up the division on Monday Night Football. Arizona 34, San Francisco 20.

Opinion Play:
Pittsburgh[b] -10 over Cleveland

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT


NBC TV Game between Philadelphia and NY Giants
Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 13, 2009, 5:20 pm(PST) Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants Giants

Take: NY Giants Giants

PHILADELPHIA vs NEW YORK GIANTS: Tom Coughlin is so practiced in the fine art of obsessive caution, he will fib to the media about practically every innocuous, trivial matter.And so again Friday, he was asked simply whether he pays attention to the NFC standings, and to the tiebreakers, that make this game Sunday night against the Eagles triply important. "No," Coughlin said." Philadelphia Eagles. That's all." On the same day that Coughlin was saying this, however, he also was passing out information to players that detailed the NFC EAST standings, the teams' records against their own division and against their own conference. HE WANTS THIS GAME; BADLY according to WAR. This game will be played back to the basics. hard-nose running NFC Style. With the potential for some rain and snow at Meadowlands Sunday night, Brandon Jacobs expects his workload to increase. And he said it's even more important to emphasize the running game and "smash-mouth football" against the Eagles. Jacobs finally broke out of his season-long slump with a 74-yard touchdown reception last Sunday when he caught a four-yard pass and took it 70 yards down the sidelines. A year after shoving the NFL around with two 1,000-yard rushers in their backfield, they're averaging 124.6 rushing yards per game, good for just 10th place in the league. WAR loves running the ball and good defense. Look for NY Giants to controlm the clock much like they did against the Cowboys. Take the NY Giants as the Vegas Legend play.

Football NFL
Game Date/Time: December 13, 2009, 1:15 pm(PST) Matchup: San Diego Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys

Take: Dallas Cowboys

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS vs. DALLAS COWBOYS: The Cowboys have a stout 8-4 record and a share of first place in the NFC East, but the outlook isn’t so great. An ugly loss to the New York Giants last weekend stripped away the good vibes of a 6-1 wave they had been riding. Avoiding a second straight loss is a must because next up is a trip to New Orleans to face the currently undefeated Saints, and because a two-game losing streak would play into the perception/reality of another promising season going down the drain in December and early January. WAR doesn't see that happening. WAR says the addition to a go to receiver in Austin has Romo happy. The past experience is behind them and they have learned from that. They enjoy a great homefield advantage and this game is all set to use that for a victory. WAR notes they haven’t lost consecutive games all season and won't start now. This game will come down to one area of play: Dallas, the NFL's ninth-ranked rushing defense will be counted on to slow down a hot Chargers squad. San Diego has won seven in a row despite ranking 30th in the league in rushing offense. This bolds well for the Cowboys...take Dallas as WAR's NFC Game of the Year.

[Mr. IWS]

Lang 12/13

40 DIME - INDIANAPOLIS COLTS - (Buy down a 1/2 to -6.5, or 7 if number goes to -7 or -7.5) - This is a bad matchup all the way around for the Denver Broncos.

First and foremost, just like last week when the public bet the Titans and the Colts went off a under a touchdown, and Peyton figured out a way to cover that number pushing the Colts record not only to a perfect 12-0, but a fantastic 9-3 ATS.

Only 3 pointspread blemishes were a 4-point win at home over the Niners laying 13, a 3 point win over the Texans laying 7 1/2 and the 1 point win over the Patriots laying 2.

Other than that, Indy has covered every game this year and it is very rare when you are as good as they are you are ever laying anything but double digits at home.

Today, just like last week you are getting value with the Colts, under a touchdown and it's value I can't pass up.

The million dollar question isn't what Peyton is going to do to the Broncos as we all know as good as he is playing he will get his. No folks, the question today is can Kyle Orton played good enough football to keep this a single digit game.

My dollar says he can't.

Indy is trying to become the only team in NFL history to win 22 regular season games in a row and also with a win today it's homefield all the way through the AFC playoffs.

The Broncos have made some noise the last 2 weeks crushing the Giants at home on Thanksgiving night, and then last week hammering a horrible Chiefs team.

Now all of a sudden people think they are back when prior to those 2 wins they had lost 4 games in a row by an average margin of 20 points.

Lastly, the Colts are very familiar with a lot of the Broncos scheme as they saw them when McDaniels was the offensive coordinator at New England. Advantage Colts.

Just like last week the Colts will execute their offense to perfection and when the 60 minutes are up, they will have won this game by double digits and covered the number right along with it.

Indy goes to 13-0 for the year, and 10-3 ATS right along with it.

20 DIME - CINCINNATI BENGALS (Buy up a 1/2 to +7, only if line is at +6.5) - The underdog in every Bengals game this year has covered the number. I'm not about to buck that trend now.

Adding to the woes of the Vikings in this game is the loss of middle linebacker E.J. Henderson. You have no idea how much that hurts the Vikings today.

When he went out last week against the Cardinals, you saw just how easily Arizona moved the football. That doesn't bode well for them today against this very balanced Bengals attack.

I'm talking about a Cincinnati team that won at Pittsburgh, won at Green Bay, and won at Baltimore.

You can bet on the fact the Bengals will not go quietly. They will battle because that is the makeup of this football team.

Brett Favre looked tired last week, and facing a Bengals defense that has allowed just 11 points a game the last 6 weeks and their defensive strength is the secondary.

Hard to blow a team out when they take away your passing game.

Only one QB has thrown for over 300 yards this year, and that was Matt Schaub and over their last 5 games this secondary has allowed less than 200 yards in every game.

They held the Ravens to 100 yards, Steelers to 146, Raiders to 186, Browns to 111 and the Lions to 165.

Brett may get his, but he won't get the big yards that will be needed to get a Vikings blowout, and I fully expect this game to go down to the wire.

And the river card for me is the fact since becoming head coach of the Minnesota Vikings Brad Childress is 0-7 ATS in the month of December at home.

Look for the underdog to remain perfect in every Bengals game this year.

10 DIME - NY JETS - (Buy down a 1/2 to -3 if line is at -3.5) - Simply put, rookie QB against #1 defense in the NFL.

A rookie QB who comes off 5 INT's on the road last week versus a Carolina defense that is no where near as good as the one he will see today.

This couldn't be a better matchup for Rex Ryan's blitz package against Josh Freeman, and if he thinks he saw some coverages last week, wait until he gets a load of this Jets defense.

Further compounding the Bucs problems in this game today is they are the 2nd worst run defense in the NFL facing the #1 rush offense. I've always maintained if you can't stop the run in the NFL you are not going to win football games.

The Jets were laying this same kind of number last week versus the Buffalo Bills and won by 6 in a game that wasn't as close as the score would lead you to believe. Their defense completely shut down the Bills to the tune of 194 yards total offense.

New York has playoff hopes. Every game is do or die. I like that in a football team.

As for Tampa Bay, it's living on a prayer. Living on the reality of losing and they have done a lot of that this year.

They have won win for the year, at home versus Green Bay and I feel Aaron Rogers had more to do with that than anything the Bucs did. He was sacked 6 times cause he held the ball to long and threw 3 INT's.

You are not going to get that from the Jets today who will run the ball and run the ball and run the ball some more.

Last week versus the Bills they ran 43 times for 249 yards and that was against the worst run defense in the NFL. Save to assume Kelly Clemens will be the beneficiary of over 200 yards rushing again today making him a play action QB all day long.

I am laying this number in what I feel will be a double digit win for the J-E-T-S....Jets, Jets, Jets.

FREE SELECTION - PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

[Mr. IWS]

roots plays

vegas legend.......nyg
no limit............... dall cowboys

[Mr. IWS]

Root plays
perfect play MINNESOTA no limit nfc goy DALLAS billionaire CHICAGO millionaire JACKSONVILLE

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Perfect Play
MINNESOTA

No Limit NFC GOY
DALLAS

Billionaire
CHICAGO

Millionaire
JACKSONVILLE

Vegas Legend
NY Giants

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns | NFL Side Sun, 12/13/09 - 1:00 PM •Å*

triple-dime bet 114 CHI 4.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 113 GBP
Analysis: I'm taking the points with CHICAGO. I won a big play on the 'under' when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. This time, I believe that the value lies with the home underdog.

Everyone is pretty down on the Bears these days & its true that they're dealing with some injuries. That's been factored into the line though, as we're now getting nearly as many points with them, as Bears' backers did in the earlier game at Lambeau. Note that while the Bears did lose that one by six points, they had a significant statistical advantage.

Despite all the negative sentiment and the disappointing overall results, the Bears are coming off an 8-point win, albeit vs. the Rams, and they're home record of 4-2 is actually better than Green Bay's 3-2 mark on the road.

While they won't be making the playoffs, they're technically not eliminated yet. As defensive end Alex Brown noted: "I don't know the chances, I'm not a math guy, but if there is a possibility, we just got to win..." While the Bears realize that's not realistically going to happen, they'd still LOVE to damage the cha‡nces of their arch-rival.

The Bears haven't been swept in a season series by the Packers since 2003 and they've won three of the last four meetings here at Soldier Field. Last year, they won 20-17 here. The previous season, in December of 2007, they were big underdogs but rose to the occasion and won by a score of 35-7. Catching the Packers playing on a short week, I expect them to again elevate their level of play, earning AT LEAST the cover and improving to 50-39-1 ATS the last 90 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier loss. *10 Top 2009 AFC north play

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al McMordie
Event Date: 12/13/2009 4:05:00 PM EST
Sport: NFL
Pick Selection: REDSKINS

At 4:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Washington Redskins plus the points over Oakland. Last week, these two teams had very opposite emotions. Oakland came from behind to shock the world champion Steelers, with a 27-24 win as a 14.5-point underdog, while Washington collapsed against the unbeaten New Orleans Saints. Kicker Shaun Suisham (now ex-kicker, after his release on Tuesday) missed two field goals, including a 23-yard chip shot, which would have wrapped up the game for the Redskins, and the Saints went on to win the game 33-30. But even though Washington might be a bit down after that game, it is still deserving of a wager here, as Oakland falls into a nasty 26-43 ATS situation which goes AGAINST teams off upset wins as underdogs of more than 10 points, provided they're NOT favored by 3 or more points. This system has already provided two blowout winners this season with San Diego over KC (after the Chiefs' upset win over the Steelers), and the Jets over Oakland (after the Raiders' upset of Philly). Look for the Redskins to bring Oakland back down to Earth. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns

Game: San Diego Chargers at Dallas Cowboys Dec 13 2009 4:15PM
Prediction: Dallas Cowboys
Reason: I'm laying the points with DALLAS. You've probably already heard all the talk about how Dallas can't win in December and how San Diego can't lose in December. It's true that's been the case in recent years. However, I believe that this will prove to be an excellent spot for a play on the home team. The Cowboys lost last week. However, they could have easily won that one, as they outgained the Giants by a 424-337 margin. This will be their third home game in their past four games. The Chargers, on the other hand, are playing the second of back to back road games and are now playing their third road game in the past four. They've gone back and forth from the West Coast numerous times this season and I believe that all the travel may be beginning to take a toll. While this is still a big game for San Diego, it's arguably much bigger for the Cowboys. For starters, they desperately want to silence all the "can't win in December" talk. More importantly, they badly need a victory to stay in the playoff hunt. San Diego is a game ahead of the Broncos in the AFC West and plays two of its final three at home. On the other hand, the Cowboys are tied with Philadelphia on top the AFC East (with Giants, who have beaten them twice, only 1 game behind them) and play their next two on the road. Making things even more difficult, the next one comes at New Orleans. When considering how tough the Saints have been this season, this one is essentially a "must win" game for them. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS their last seven games played on turf. Conversely, the Chargers are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS their last five on turf. The Chargers usually have an advantage over most teams that they play at the quarterback position. With all due respect to Rivers, who is having another great year, I don't expect that to be the case this afternoon. Romo is coming off a game which saw him throw for 392 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Romo, who completed an outstanding 41 of 55 (74.5 percent) passes, now has 16 touchdowns with just three interceptions in his last eight games, topping the 300 yard mark in five of them. Jason Witten, who caught 14 passes for 156 yards, is capable of matching San Diego's Antonio Gates while the duo of Miles Austin and Roy Williams arguably give the Cowboys the advantage at the receiver position. As far as the running game goes, even though Tomlinson still gets a lot of publicity, the Chargers rush for just 87 yards per game. Dallas, on the other hand, averages 130 rushing yards per game. Its not just the Dallas runs more often either. The Cowboys run the ball 26 times per game. The Chargers run the ball 27 times per game. San Diego gains an average of 3.3 yards per carry. The Cowboys gain an average of five yards per carry. Perhaps most importantly, I believe that the Cowboys have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. Dallas allowed a lot of points last week. However, that was the first time in 11 games that they allowed more than 21 points. They'd held each of their previous five opponents to 17 points or less with those teams averaging less than 13 points. For the season, the Cowboys are allowing 17.7 points and 15.2 at home. The Chargers, who allowed 23 vs. lowly Cleveland last week, are allowing 20.2. The Chargers are 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS the last 11 times that they played a game with a line ranging from +3 to -3. During the same stretch, the Cowboys are 9-5 SU/ATS when they have done so. I expect them to improve on those stats here, temporarily silencing the "can't win in December" talk and taking a critical step towards making the playoffs. *10 GOM