View Full Version : UFC 108 - Jan 2 - Discussion
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I figure it's not too early to move onto the next event. . .
What do you guys think on this one?
I'm contemplating plays on JDS and Hazelett, but will need to watch some tape on Yvel and Semtex before I do.
I'd take Rashad at -180 or better and I'd take Silva at +190 or better.
Went ahead and dropped .25u on Stout. It's unlikely he'll win this fight, but I'm not sure he should be more than a 2:1 dog either.
Anyone here have any thoughts on Dan Lauzon? The only time I saw him fight was on an Affliction card a while back and honestly wasn't super-impressed.
MMA_scientist
12-14-2009, 10:05 AM
I got Rashad @ -195 for 3u. I think the line will get worse on him closer to fight time.
I am considering a bet on Sherk, but the line would have to move pretty drastically (-200 or so).
I am considering an underdog bet on Stout. I think he has a good chance, his takedown defense has looked alot better. If he can keep it upright, he should win.
I like Hazelett a lot, but I think the chances of him getting KO'd are pretty high. He would be a good underdog, and I think he will win, but his takedowns will decide this fight, and its not his bet area.
I think JDS is a solid bet, but its a striker/striker matchup, and Yvel hits with murderous intent. I rarely bet striker/striker matchups personally. I just don't know as much about striking, so its hard for me to gauge who is better.
Mr. IWS
12-14-2009, 11:03 AM
I dont really like this card from a betting standpoint. Ill be laying off this one.
I would lean towards Thiago Silva though.
MMA_scientist
12-17-2009, 02:28 PM
I also put down 3 units on Cole Miller @ -155. I went and watched some of D-Lau's fights. I really don't think he can beat Cole. He has a brawling style on his feat, and Cole is more technical. So there is the chance he can swarm him. On the mat, Cole should be better as well. Pretty good odds on Cole, IMO.
Watched some fights and went ahead and pulled the Trigger on JDS:
3u @ -260.
I think he's going to go out there and do his thing and Yvel's not going to have anything for him. Yvel has had a lot of wins lately, but against who? Rizzo? I could maybe you could say the same thing about JDS, who beat up an old Cro Cop and a young Struve, but Werdum was top 10 and probably next in line for a title shot before he got KTFOd. I've said it before and I'll say it again: JDS is a killer and he's going to go far in the HW division, perhaps all the way to the belt.
I dunno man. JDS is a good striker but he seems pretty damn sloppy defensively. Crocop was landing his straight left at will but JDS just didn't seem to care. Gilbert Yvel can knock out anyone.
MMA_scientist
12-22-2009, 02:23 PM
I never bet on slugfests/pure striking matches. Especially heavyweights. They all have so much power that anyone can get rocked with just one slip up.
This will be a striking match, but not a slugfest. JDS is very slick. 18-0 Brazilian kickboxing champ. 9-1 in MMA with his only loss coming by sub.
I think he's going to pick Yvel apart until he gets a good opening to put him out.
Then again, like you say, anything can happen.
MMA_scientist
12-22-2009, 03:32 PM
I didn't know about his kickboxing record. But then again, what is the brazilian kickboxing scene like? It could be like how Babalu was an olympic calibur wrestler in Brazil. JDS doesn't look that technical to me, but maybe I misjudged him.
Mr. IWS
12-22-2009, 03:58 PM
Im leary of this one too. Yvel can bang, and like Scientist said, when these big guys are throwing, anything can happen.
I didn't know about his kickboxing record. But then again, what is the brazilian kickboxing scene like? It could be like how Babalu was an olympic calibur wrestler in Brazil. JDS doesn't look that technical to me, but maybe I misjudged him.
Brazilian kickboxing scene, yeah, I dunno. Maybe it's shitty. I just know that in 18 fights he's never lost there.
I think you're right that at the higher weightclasses it really takes one good punch to end a fight. Yvel could do it. But considering that he'd be the first person in 38 total fights to EVER KO JDS, my worries about that are minimal.
MMA_scientist
12-22-2009, 04:15 PM
Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?
Mr. IWS
12-22-2009, 04:17 PM
Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test.
All I remember from that fight is Barnett having Yvel mounted for 3 rounds beating his head in.
MMA_scientist
12-22-2009, 04:27 PM
Maybe he just knocked him down with a punch.
[quote="MMA_scientist":1x1fxspd]Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test.
All I remember from that fight is Barnett having Yvel mounted for 3 rounds beating his head in.[/quote:1x1fxspd]
Heres a link to that fight
http://mixedmartialartvideos.com/josh-barnett-vs-gilbert-yvel-video-affliction-day-of-reckoning/
JDS is still so sloppy though....
Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?
He won while being in the full mount throwing strikes.Had this fight been fought on their feet Yvel would have stood a good chance of winning
Im leary of this one too. Yvel can bang, and like Scientist said, when these big guys are throwing, anything can happen.
Thats kind of my thinking. Is Santos going to try to fight this on their feet? If so no way am I laying -260. If Santos was going to try to take it to the ground then maybe
JDS is still so sloppy though....
I have never once thought of JDS as sloppy.
He is gonna fuck Yvel up. Can anything happen in MMA? Sure. Yvel can win and make me look like a fool, but I think JDS will take this one decisively.
I have 3u on JDS. I'm considering 5u, which is pretty much my max bet.
MMA_scientist
12-23-2009, 09:34 AM
Don't get me wrong, I think its a pretty safe bet. JDS is top notch, while Yvel is maybe not even top 20. Yvel got KO'd standing by Josh Barnett in his last real test. If he can't catch a big slow pasty caucasion wrestler, why should he catch JDS?
He won while being in the full mount throwing strikes.Had this fight been fought on their feet Yvel would have stood a good chance of winning
Its true. I got confused... I was thinking of the Rizzo fight.
Mr. IWS
12-23-2009, 11:51 AM
Not sure how relevant this is, but I thought it was interesting. Im sure we will hear more about it after the fight.
Rashad Evans said he’s chosen not to buy into the rumors that his Jan. 2 opponent Thiago Silva is injured.
Silva, who faces Evans at UFC 108 on Jan. 2 in Las Vegas, was said to have strained his ankle in training but was coaxed to stay on the injury-laden card by the promotion for additional compensation. Silva and his American Top Team camp have denied the rumors.
Probably the best strategy for Rashad. You gotta prepare to handle the best that your opponent can throw at you.
I would totally be on Rashad if his line wasn't so shitty. Those lucky 5dimes fuckers had a chance to get him at -155.
The HOFF
12-25-2009, 03:53 AM
My plays for UFC 108:
Rashad Evans -175 (8.75u to win 5u)
Dustin Hazelett +100 (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Jake Ellenberger -120 (6u to win 5u)
Ryan Jensen +300 (2u to win 6u)
I think Thiago Silva is too slow on his feet and has a weak chin. His biggest wins are Jardine and Alexander. The biggest reason I have always been skeptical about Silva is his fight with Antonio Mendes. He was actually in some trouble in that fight. Evans is very quick and should be able to take down Silva at will if he gets into trouble standing up.
Hazelett has slick submissions and Daley has a weak ground game.
Ellenberger looked great against Condit, and wasn't submitted by Condit which is a huge feat in itself.
Mark Munoz can wrestle, that's it. Why is he a huge favorite. I love these odds with Jensen.
Mr. IWS
12-25-2009, 11:10 AM
GL on the Plays Hoff!
Thanks for stopping by and giving us your analysis.
Hey, man! Welcome to the forum.
Looks like you're going big on just about everything. Is 1 unit 1% of your bankroll?
I think I like all your picks but Hazelett. I have 1.25u on Daley in that one. I think it could go either way so Hazelett isn't necessarily a BAD bet in my estimation, but I think I like Daley's chances better simply because he has shown some good takedown defense and Hazelett has never been shown to have really good takedowns. On the feet, Daley owns this one.
I'm with you on your other three picks. I have 1.25u on Ellenberger @ -115 (thinking of pushing this up to 2u) and Jensen has value at +300 I believe. The oddsmakers seem to be grossly overestimating Munoz's skill.
I would make a play on Rashad, but don't like his line. I think he has value at -180 or better. I'm keeping an eye on this one to see if his line will drop, but I'm not expecting it to.
The HOFF
12-25-2009, 04:28 PM
A unit is roughly 1% of my bankroll. I don't play real big and I'm sure my unit size is rather small comparatively.
I think the Hazelett-Daley fight is very close. I just know getting Hazelett at EV was a good line so I jumped on it.
My plays for UFC 108:
Rashad Evans -175 (8.75u to win 5u)
Dustin Hazelett +100 (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Jake Ellenberger -120 (6u to win 5u)
Ryan Jensen +300 (2u to win 6u)
I think Thiago Silva is too slow on his feet and has a weak chin. His biggest wins are Jardine and Alexander. The biggest reason I have always been skeptical about Silva is his fight with Antonio Mendes. He was actually in some trouble in that fight. Evans is very quick and should be able to take down Silva at will if he gets into trouble standing up.
Hazelett has slick submissions and Daley has a weak ground game.
Ellenberger looked great against Condit, and wasn't submitted by Condit which is a huge feat in itself.
Mark Munoz can wrestle, that's it. Why is he a huge favorite. I love these odds with Jensen.
GL Hoff and welcome.I'm still working on my plays buy I'm leaning Evans too. ::handshake::
MMA_scientist
12-27-2009, 03:34 PM
My plays for UFC 108:
Rashad Evans -175 (8.75u to win 5u)
Dustin Hazelett +100 (2.5u to win 2.5u)
Jake Ellenberger -120 (6u to win 5u)
Ryan Jensen +300 (2u to win 6u)
I think Thiago Silva is too slow on his feet and has a weak chin. His biggest wins are Jardine and Alexander. The biggest reason I have always been skeptical about Silva is his fight with Antonio Mendes. He was actually in some trouble in that fight. Evans is very quick and should be able to take down Silva at will if he gets into trouble standing up.
Hazelett has slick submissions and Daley has a weak ground game.
Ellenberger looked great against Condit, and wasn't submitted by Condit which is a huge feat in itself.
Mark Munoz can wrestle, that's it. Why is he a huge favorite. I love these odds with Jensen.
You bet similar to the way I do, 1= 1%, always bet "amount to risk"... but I rarely go over 5u. I like all your plays, but I give Daley decent shot to win. I agree on Munoz, there is definate value to Jensen (though I still think Munoz will win).
My 108 plays are
5u on Rashad @ -195
5u on Cole Miller @-155
That's it.
Mr. IWS
12-29-2009, 06:24 PM
Anyone know if they are showing some prelims on spike saturday?
The HOFF
12-29-2009, 08:12 PM
Two confirmed Prelims for SPIKE:
* Martin Kampmann vs. Jacob Volkmann
* Dan Lauzon vs. Cole Miller
The HOFF
12-29-2009, 08:37 PM
Vladimir Matyushenko on Tuesday confirmed to MMAWeekly.com that his originally scheduled opponent for this weekend’s UFC 108 in Las Vegas, Steve Cantwell, is out of their fight due to undisclosed reasons.
The UFC has told Matyushenko that they are actively searching to find a replacement, and that he should continue his preparations to make weight on Friday and fight on Saturday.
Mr. IWS
12-30-2009, 09:35 AM
Two confirmed Prelims for SPIKE:
* Martin Kampmann vs. Jacob Volkmann
* Dan Lauzon vs. Cole Miller
::handshake::
Mr. IWS
12-30-2009, 09:36 AM
Vladimir Matyushenko on Tuesday confirmed to MMAWeekly.com that his originally scheduled opponent for this weekend’s UFC 108 in Las Vegas, Steve Cantwell, is out of their fight due to undisclosed reasons.
The UFC has told Matyushenko that they are actively searching to find a replacement, and that he should continue his preparations to make weight on Friday and fight on Saturday.
Anyone find out what was up with Cantwell?
Sportbet has Cole Miller now for +130.
Can you believe that shit? How the hell did that happen?
Sucks I don't have an account with those guys. . .
MMA_scientist
12-30-2009, 05:14 PM
^^
That is insane. All the odds on the other sites are going the other way... how does that happen, a gigantor bet on DLau at sportsbet? I am sure there is a cap.
^^
That is insane. All the odds on the other sites are going the other way... how does that happen, a gigantor bet on DLau at sportsbet? I am sure there is a cap.
That's the only thing that I can come up with, because he went directly from -160 to +130. I wish that shit had happened on Bodog or Sportsbook. I'd have been all over Miller at those odds.
Mr. IWS
12-30-2009, 05:53 PM
That is a pretty big swing. Im wondering if he is sick or something.
MMA_scientist
12-30-2009, 05:56 PM
Yeah, has me a little worried. I have 5u on him @ -155... maybe someone at sportsbet knows something I dont.
Clearly it's just an errant line.
http://www.bestfightodds.com/
Compare Sportbet to 5dimes. All are EXACTLY the same, with that one fight just reversed.
Clearly it's just an errant line.
http://www.bestfightodds.com/
Compare Sportbet to 5dimes. All are EXACTLY the same, with that one fight just reversed.
Interesting, but those types of problems usually get fixed pretty quickly and that line's been up for a couple of hours now so I dunno.
Mr. IWS
12-31-2009, 08:34 PM
The way we have been trippin all week, I can see this thread getting out of control saturday night during the event.
::munch::
MMA_scientist
12-31-2009, 08:45 PM
I added a late play on Jim Miller @ -425 for 6u
I am on tilt after Sok.
But Miller has defeated awesome strikers before (Cobbrey) and has only last to better wrestlers (MAynard and Edgar- both top 10). Should be a lock and get me right after Sok.
Mr. IWS
12-31-2009, 08:46 PM
I added a late play on Jim Miller @ -425 for 6u
I am on tilt after Sok.
But Miller has defeated awesome strikers before (Cobbrey) and has only last to better wrestlers (MAynard and Edgar- both top 10). Should be a lock and get me right after Sok.
GL man. I think you bounce back big this weekend.
::handshake::
I added a late play on Jim Miller @ -425 for 6u
I am on tilt after Sok.
But Miller has defeated awesome strikers before (Cobbrey) and has only last to better wrestlers (MAynard and Edgar- both top 10). Should be a lock and get me right after Sok.
Good luck. I was going to put a bet on Miller at -315 when the line first opened, but it has already jumped to -400 by the time I got home. I'm just not sure the value's there anymore. Hopefully we will all make some money.
I'm actually pretty nervous about this weekend. Not only have I talked a lot of shit about how JDS and Kampmann should easily win their fights, but I have a little over 20% of my bankroll out there between JDS, Kampmann, Ellenberger, Daley, and Stout.
MMA_scientist
01-01-2010, 08:51 AM
Good luck. I was going to put a bet on Miller at -315 when the line first opened, but it has already jumped to -400 by the time I got home. I'm just not sure the value's there anymore. Hopefully we will all make some money.
I'm actually pretty nervous about this weekend. Not only have I talked a lot of shit about how JDS and Kampmann should easily win their fights, but I have a little over 20% of my bankroll out there between JDS, Kampmann, Ellenberger, Daley, and Stout.
Thanks, GL to you too.
I have 16% of my bankroll out. Ithink having that damnblog is making more aggressive than I used to be. I want to make sure I win, which was never an issue for me before.
You're gonna win at least 3 of those fights, I think you will be ok.
here to 2010... the year I blow up.
MMA_scientist
01-01-2010, 08:52 AM
[quote="MMA_scientist":yejbj030]I added a late play on Jim Miller @ -425 for 6u
I am on tilt after Sok.
But Miller has defeated awesome strikers before (Cobbrey) and has only last to better wrestlers (MAynard and Edgar- both top 10). Should be a lock and get me right after Sok.
GL man. I think you bounce back big this weekend.
::handshake::[/quote:yejbj030]
Thanks... I appreciate the vote of confidence.
I am still up quite a bit in december, before Sok, it was out of control
triathlete
01-01-2010, 11:38 AM
Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster.
I just started betting on MMA. First event. I've been reading posts and decided to give it a try. Starting out tiny with 1-2$ units and working my way up as I figure out how to make it work. Have an account with Bodog and BetUS... going to fund Bookmaker for 109 to have a decent line selection.
So, that being said, I appreciate reading thoughts and suggestions by everyone... I'm learning a lot.
Here's what I've got so far...
Ellenberger over Pyle
JD Santos over Yvel
Kampmann over Volkman
Daley over Hazelett
For some reason, I feel funny about the Daley pick... but other than that... pretty straight forward.
Thx.
3
Mr. IWS
01-01-2010, 11:39 AM
Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster.
I just started betting on MMA. First event. I've been reading posts and decided to give it a try. Starting out tiny with 1-2$ units and working my way up as I figure out how to make it work. Have an account with Bodog and BetUS... going to fund Bookmaker for 109 to have a decent line selection.
So, that being said, I appreciate reading thoughts and suggestions by everyone... I'm learning a lot.
Here's what I've got so far...
Ellenberger over Pyle
JD Santos over Yvel
Kampmann over Volkman
Daley over Hazelett
For some reason, I feel funny about the Daley pick... but other than that... pretty straight forward.
Thx.
3
Great to have ya man. BOL on the plays!
Hey everyone. Long time lurker, first time poster.
I just started betting on MMA. First event. I've been reading posts and decided to give it a try. Starting out tiny with 1-2$ units and working my way up as I figure out how to make it work. Have an account with Bodog and BetUS... going to fund Bookmaker for 109 to have a decent line selection.
So, that being said, I appreciate reading thoughts and suggestions by everyone... I'm learning a lot.
Here's what I've got so far...
Ellenberger over Pyle
JD Santos over Yvel
Kampmann over Volkman
Daley over Hazelett
For some reason, I feel funny about the Daley pick... but other than that... pretty straight forward.
Thx.
3
Hey, welcome to the forum!
I like all your picks. In fact, those are the guys I have my biggest bets on.
I'm with you on Daley being iffy. His fight could go either way. What odds did you take him at? I think that at even odds or with Daley being an uderdog, he's worth a bet.
I have 16% of my bankroll out. Ithink having that damnblog is making more aggressive than I used to be. I want to make sure I win, which was never an issue for me before.
I hear you on that. I've been getting more aggressive lately. I think for me it had to do with such slow progress. I mean, I was down overall for a while and on the events I would win it would be like 1 or 2 units and it was just taking SO LONG to dig myself out of this hole. I never felt comfortable dropping a lot of units on anything because I didn't want to have a big, devastating loss. But one thing I noticed was that a lot of people around me were putting big time units on the fights they really felt comfortable with. First time I did that was on BJ at 109. I put 5u on him, which I basically never do, but it worked out for me.
Taking my unit size into account, my bankroll is only about 37 units. So a 5u bet is pretty significant.
triathlete
01-01-2010, 12:40 PM
Hey, welcome to the forum!
I like all your picks. In fact, those are the guys I have my biggest bets on.
I'm with you on Daley being iffy. His fight could go either way. What odds did you take him at? I think that at even odds or with Daley being an uderdog, he's worth a bet.
SPX,
Hey, read some of your stuff at MMAJunkie. It's actually how I came across this site.
I have Daley at -115 on BetUS. He's now at +105 on BetUS. I know that line has been back and forth on the odds comparison sites I've been looking at... but that was the best on him when I went in. I suppose I should get used to that ;)
I have 1u on Ellenberger (-140), 3 on JDS (-300), 2u on Kampmann (-240), and 2u on Daley (-115, primarily because BUS wouldn't let me put 1u, too small of a number :) ).
So, is straight betting the norm? I know there are other types of bets and such you can make... but like side bets in Blackjack, you just don't make them. Any advice?
Thx,
3
Hey, read some of your stuff at MMAJunkie. It's actually how I came across this site.
Oh, sweet! Glad you stopped by. We are always looking for quality posters around here. We have a small community, but it's really very active for only having a handful of regulars. (Probably more active than the Junkie wagering forum, oddly.)
I have Daley at -115 on BetUS. He's now at +105 on BetUS. I know that line has been back and forth on the odds comparison sites I've been looking at... but that was the best on him when I went in. I suppose I should get used to that ;)
I got him at -110. If I had waited, I could've gotten him at Even, I think. I still think he holds value, but this is a high variance play. It really could go either way. I just think it's probably 55/45 in favor of Daley.
And yes, you should get used to that.
I have 1u on Ellenberger (-140), 3 on JDS (-300), 2u on Kampmann (-240), and 2u on Daley (-115, primarily because BUS wouldn't let me put 1u, too small of a number :) ).
Pretty good, I think. Too bad you didn't get on Ellenberger and Kampmann earlier on. You could've gotten them at -115 and -170 respectively. Be sure to keep a close eye on bestfightodds and sign up for alerts for fights you're particularly interested in betting on.
MMA_scientist
01-01-2010, 01:37 PM
I have 16% of my bankroll out. Ithink having that damnblog is making more aggressive than I used to be. I want to make sure I win, which was never an issue for me before.
I hear you on that. I've been getting more aggressive lately. I think for me it had to do with such slow progress. I mean, I was down overall for a while and on the events I would win it would be like 1 or 2 units and it was just taking SO LONG to dig myself out of this hole. I never felt comfortable dropping a lot of units on anything because I didn't want to have a big, devastating loss. But one thing I noticed was that a lot of people around me were putting big time units on the fights they really felt comfortable with. First time I did that was on BJ at 109. I put 5u on him, which I basically never do, but it worked out for me.
Taking my unit size into account, my bankroll is only about 37 units. So a 5u bet is pretty significant.
I have a 100 unit bankroll, so I unit is 1%
I make my money on favorites, I look for favorites where the style matchup creates more value. That's pretty much it.
I try to keep my bets to 5%, but sometime go as high as 7%. For underdogs, I never go more than 2%
I think Hazelett is gonna win, but I think its a coin flip pretty much
I have a 100 unit bankroll, so I unit is 1%
I make my money on favorites, I look for favorites where the style matchup creates more value. That's pretty much it.
I try to keep my bets to 5%, but sometime go as high as 7%. For underdogs, I never go more than 2%
I think Hazelett is gonna win, but I think its a coin flip pretty much
I have about $725 spread out over three accounts. I don't want to use anything less than a $20 unit. You're just not going to make any money that way.
I'll be happy when I have that cushion of 1u=1%. I'll feel a lot better about 3-5 unit bets. I'd like to be able to get there within a year. We'll see. I do know of one guy who tripled his bankroll in a year. He said he had to make a lot of "dicey" bets to do it, not sure how he defines dicey, though.
MMA_scientist
01-01-2010, 02:38 PM
I also tripled my bankroll in a year (twice). I used a 20unit bankroll, so I had the whole thing at risk several times.
But it can be done. 10% per month compounded will triple it every year. I did 30% last month and 14% in November (based on 50units per my blog).
triathlete
01-01-2010, 03:02 PM
So here's a question for you triplers (and everyone)
How many books do you keep? I saw SPX has three. I'm assuming you shop your lines and everything. How much of a factor is that?
I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?
Switching topics, I saw Ludwig v. Miller is +400 to -600 (bodog). How do you react to that? I've read a few blogs/articles picking Ludwig. Do you generally put a unit or two on the dog or does a "good" bettor usually stay clear of things like that?
Thx,
3
I also tripled my bankroll in a year (twice). I used a 20unit bankroll, so I had the whole thing at risk several times.
But it can be done. 10% per month compounded will triple it every year. I did 30% last month and 14% in November (based on 50units per my blog).
Good stuff.
From now on, when I bet on fights I'm going to repeat the mantra in my head, "Be like the scientist!"
So here's a question for you triplers (and everyone)
How many books do you keep? I saw SPX has three. I'm assuming you shop your lines and everything. How much of a factor is that?
I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?
Switching topics, I saw Ludwig v. Miller is +400 to -600 (bodog). How do you react to that? I've read a few blogs/articles picking Ludwig. Do you generally put a unit or two on the dog or does a "good" bettor usually stay clear of things like that?
Thx,
3
I have accounts with Bodog, Sportsbook, and Bookmaker, and I'm working on getting a 5dimes account funded. To answer your question, I think that having AT LEAST 3 books is VERY important. Often one book will have a line that's playable while another will not. Line shopping is a big part of being successful. It's good that you're opening a Bookmaker account. They are VERY important because they are often the first to post lines and also occasionally have the best lines on any given fight. Bodog is often good for underdogs, but their lines for favorites usually kind of suck (as you can see in your above example). Sportsbook is okay to have, but only because they will occasionally have the best line available, but generally their lines stay close to Bodog lines and they are never the first to post lines. If I were you, after you go with Bookmaker, I'd get a 5dimes account going and then you'll probably be good. 5dimes often has a lot of very good lines and occasionally may have a +EV prop bet.
As for Miller/Ludwig, I honestly know very little about Ludwig, but I have a hard time believing he should be +400. There occasionally is good value in very heavy underdogs. For instance, for the Dynamite event I put .25u on Kanehara @ +350 against Kid Yamamoto and Kanehara won by unanimous decision. Generally for a fight like that, I won't do a full unit. Typically, my underdog bets range from .25 to .5u, though occasionally I'll go heavier. For example, I have 1u on Keith Jardine @ +130 against Ryan Bader. Usually if I go with more than half a unit, then it's for an underdog who is in the sub -200 range.
The HOFF
01-01-2010, 04:19 PM
I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?
Bookmaker is one of the best options for straight bets. Usually they have the best line and are the first to post lines. 5Dimes is an excellent option as well because they allow MMA parlays.
I have two right now, Bodog and BetUS, and I'm going to fund Bookmaker after this. Would you attribute success (or lack thereof) to the ability to shop that around? How many do you feel you need to keep to have a good selection?
Bookmaker is one of the best options for straight bets. Usually they have the best line and are the first to post lines. 5Dimes is an excellent option as well because they allow MMA parlays.
The best option for dogs or favorites is matchbook.
Example
Thiago Silva
Rashad evans
At bookmaer Evans is -200 and Silva is +160
at matchbook Evans is -188 and Silva is +185 so no matter if you like the favorite or the dog you are saving 12 or 15 cents juice.
All fights are like this at matchbook .Why? because matchbook takes a 1% commission or juice on bets unlike bookmaker that is taking 40 cents juice on the Evans -Silva fight
Mr. IWS
01-01-2010, 06:08 PM
How many books do you keep?
Im using my local guy as of now, but usually I use him, bookmaker and sportsbook.
Line shopping is a big part of being successful.
I couldnt have said it better than SPX did.
Im using my local guy as of now, but usually I use him, bookmaker and sportsbook.
I didn't know you even had any online accounts, Zak. . .
Mr. IWS
01-01-2010, 06:23 PM
Im using my local guy as of now, but usually I use him, bookmaker and sportsbook.
I didn't know you even had any online accounts, Zak. . .
I used them for a couple years. After I lost it all last year, I never re-upped them. I got a pretty good relationship with my local guy, we have been friends for a long time, so I kind of like to call him up and "shoot the shit" with him.
I had a whole bunch of rewards points at bookmaker I used a couple months ago (lost again...LOL), and i got like 15 bucks in my sportsbook.com account.
The HOFF
01-01-2010, 07:25 PM
The full weigh-in results include:
MAIN CARD
Rashad Evans (205) vs. Thiago Silva (205)
Paul Daley (172)* vs. Dustin Hazelett (168)
Joe Lauzon (155) vs. Sam Stout (155)
Duane Ludwig (156) vs. Jim Miller (155)
Junior Dos Santos (237) vs. Gilbert Yvel (239)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
Martin Kampmann (171) vs. Jacob Volkmann (171)
Dan Lauzon (155) vs. Cole Miller (155)
PRELIMINARY CARD (Un-aired)
Ryan Jensen (186) vs. Mark Munoz (185)
Jake Ellenberger (170) vs. Mike Pyle (171)
Rafaello Oliveira (156) vs. John Gunderson (155)
* - Missed weight on first attempt; has two hours to make 171-pound limit
Just saw that.
I hope Daley's performance is not affected by this extra weight cut.
triathlete
01-01-2010, 07:37 PM
Saw that too... he looked a little... meh. Hazelett looked chipper.
I like Dustin, but I hope Daley wrecks his shit.
Shit I forgot about the weighins. I've totally forgotten about this card for some reason.
*Daley was unable to make weight and for safety reasons, the Nevada State Athletic Commission will not allow him to try to cut to 171 pounds. Hazelett agreed to a catchweight bout at 172 pounds and Daley will be fined 10% of his purse.
Source: http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=news.detail&gid=36956
Mr. IWS
01-01-2010, 08:24 PM
He must have had to cut a lot just go get down to 172.
Yeah I heard he looked awful at the weighins.
MMA_scientist
01-01-2010, 08:34 PM
Hmm. I hope Hazelett takes him arm home. But this probably means he is gonna be gigantic tomorrow.
I don't have bet on this one, but its the fight I find most interesting.
Hmm. I hope Hazelett takes him arm home.
And I hope Daley brings some of that good ol' fashion overweight whoop ass, Rumble-VS-Yoshida style.
I want to see Daley vs Rumble.
Mr. IWS
01-01-2010, 08:52 PM
I want to see Daley vs Rumble.
Black on Black Crime! ::thumbup::
Rashad's at -185 now on Sportsbook. If he goes below that I'm taking him.
triathlete
01-01-2010, 10:02 PM
What kind of units?
What kind of units?
Either enough to make a full unit or a half unit. I'm undecided.
triathlete
01-01-2010, 10:54 PM
Did anyone see Junior Dos Santos' ear during weigh-ins? Man, that was nasty.
Did anyone see Junior Dos Santos' ear during weigh-ins? Man, that was nasty.
I didn't catch it.
But on an unrelated note, EXCELLENT fucking avatar!
triathlete
01-01-2010, 11:01 PM
I heard the ninja avatar was mandatory to participate. I thought I'd get on board.
Ear: http://twitpic.com/wb1xu
I heard the ninja avatar was mandatory to participate. I thought I'd get on board.
We welcome you, brother.
Ear: http://twitpic.com/wb1xu
Damn, what the fuck happened?
We need to come up with a name for our ninja clan.
I heard the ninja avatar was mandatory to participate. I thought I'd get on board.
Ear: http://twitpic.com/wb1xu
Another ninja guy ::lmao::
I feel like the odd man out .
Welcome man
Another ninja guy ::lmao::
I feel like the odd man out .
Welcome man
I should direct you to some ninja films so that you can experience their awesomeness.
Then you will be excited to get a ninja avatar.
Cole Miller is down to -150 on Sportsbook. I'm seriously thinking about getting on that.
Yeah that avatar is flippin SWEET.
I bet triathlete is really good with the bow staff.
triathlete
01-01-2010, 11:47 PM
Yeah that avatar is flippin SWEET.
I bet triathlete is really good with the bow staff.
Haha. ::headscratch:: Don't know how to take that comment.
::lmao::
Swim, bike, run. No bo staffs. Though I could slow a few people down by jamming one in the spokes of their bike.
When will most online books close for 108 bets?
Haha. ::headscratch:: Don't know how to take that comment.
::lmao::
Swim, bike, run. No bo staffs. Though I could slow a few people down by jamming one in the spokes of their bike.
When will most online books close for 108 bets?
Usually each fight is open to bet on until just a little while before the fight . . . sometimes just a few minutes.
So it's not like the event as a whole is closed down at a certain time.
Swim, bike, run. No bo staffs. Though I could slow a few people down by jamming one in the spokes of their bike.
You're a pimp for doing triathlons.
I hate to run. I was in the army for a little while when I was younger (like 17) and absolutely hated running during basic training. Today, I think I could get to the point of maybe doing a mile without complaining too bad. Anything beyond that just makes me want to die.
I hate running too, but I love riding my mountain bike.
MMA_scientist
01-02-2010, 12:19 AM
I have done a few sprint triathlons. I can run and swim, but I refuse to learn how to bike properly. I never switch gears. I do it 5th grade bmx style. I just find a gear I can live with and power up the hills.
I am nowhere near man enough to do a real tri.
I got Rashad @ 185 when he opened. I got Cole @ 155 too. I missed out on Jim Miller, maybe his line will magically come down more, I will drop a couple more on him if he goes below -400
F'n ninjas are sweet. Love the av.
Live the av.
I went ahead on jumped on Cole for 1.5u at -150.
MMA_scientist
01-02-2010, 12:25 AM
I went ahead on jumped on Cole for 1.5u at -150.
anytime I can get the wise SPX on my side, it adds confidence.
GL to us. That is the only fight that has me nervous.
Thiago is gonna gas out, you heard it here.
I hate running too, but I love riding my mountain bike.
I love running I use to run 3 miles a day with the dog 5 days a week until I got a bulging disk in my back . Once it completely heals I'll be doing it again
anytime I can get the wise SPX on my side, it adds confidence.
GL to us. That is the only fight that has me nervous.
Thiago is gonna gas out, you heard it here.
I think the Evans/Thiago fight is 65/35 Evans.
At -185, that is slightly LESS than 65% for Evans. Should I take it? Hmm. . . I am tempted.
Fuck it. I did it. 2u on Evans @ -185.
I've been saying from the beginning that Evans should win this fight. I wanted -180 or better, but looking at the negligible difference between -185 and -180, I think there is still a modicum of value there. '
WAR EVANS!
Mr. IWS
01-02-2010, 10:11 AM
GL on Evans boys. I hate that dude for some reason, but Ill root you in.
MMA_scientist
01-02-2010, 10:23 AM
I think it is because he is obnoxious. I also cannot stand him. But I don't let that get in that way of business.
Mr. IWS
01-02-2010, 10:29 AM
I think it is because he is obnoxious. I also cannot stand him. But I don't let that get in that way of business.
Nah, its not that. I love the Diaz brothers, Penn, Mir. They are my favorites.
I think its that Evans KO on Liddell ( I was on Liddell). I think thats it. ::lmao::
Mr. IWS
01-02-2010, 10:37 AM
Or maybe its the Evans TKO over Forrest (I was on Forrest) :burn:
I think it is because he is obnoxious. I also cannot stand him. But I don't let that get in that way of business.
I used to feel that way about Evans, but as time's gone on I think the reputation may be somewhat undeserved.
Damn, Rashad just hit -175 on Bookmaker. I'd be a little pissed if I actually had any available funds in my Bookmaker account.
I don't see the hate on Rashad. The dude is nothing but respectful.
Mr. IWS
01-02-2010, 02:43 PM
Did anyone see Junior Dos Santos' ear during weigh-ins? Man, that was nasty.
http://i818.photobucket.com/albums/zz102/danielgriner/gooniegorillaz.jpg
MMA_scientist
01-02-2010, 02:45 PM
there are lots of reasons to dislike someone besides disrespect. I just think he is annoying. I find his personality (or persona) annoying. I hate his little dances after his ko's. I hate how he blew a kiss to forrest and grabbed his package (even though forrest was beating him squarely at that time). I hate how he ran his mouth all the way to nap town against machida.
I hate him on TUF too. I hate how he repeats the same thing over and over, and it wasnt funny or good the first time- "you make a real good bitch" is not any funnier on the 1000th repeating...
That's just me though. I have bad taste in personality. I think Matt Hughes seems like an OK dude.
Did anyone see Junior Dos Santos' ear during weigh-ins? Man, that was nasty.
http://i818.photobucket.com/albums/zz102/danielgriner/gooniegorillaz.jpg
::lmao:: ::lmao::
Matt Hughes? That guys sucks. . .
As for Rashad, I agree with you about some of his antics. His KO celebrations suck and I was hoping Forrest would seriously shut him down after he grabbed his dick.
He's certainly not my favorite fighter but he's seemed to chill out on a lot of bullshit in the past year or so compared to the way he used to be and he seemed like a pretty cool guy on one of the countdown shows I saw him on. He also seems pretty intelligent and not at all thuggish like a lot of younger black guys apparently think they're supposed to be.
I have bad taste in personality. I think Matt Hughes seems like an OK dude.
Clearly.
Matt Hughes persona on TUF made me want to murder Jesus personally.
Mr. IWS
01-02-2010, 03:31 PM
Cant stand Matt Hughes, and its not because I lost money on him. Dude just rubs me the wrong way.
Just ran across Dana's video blog from 12/29. God, I didn't realize what a douche Daley is. He pops up around 3:55.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrDeJAxwVyY&NR=1
I hate that I have to root for him against Dustin tonight.
Mr. IWS
01-02-2010, 04:06 PM
Just ran across Dana's video blog from 12/29. God, I didn't realize what a douche Daley is. He pops up around 3:55.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrDeJAxwVyY&NR=1
I hate that I have to root for him against Dustin tonight.
I just watched his last few blogs today. That one from yesterday, Hendo's face keeps popping up in it.
I want to bet something tonight but I just cant find something I am confident on
I want to bet something tonight but I just cant find something I am confident on
Just go small on something. Maybe not try to make a full unit like you usually do. Or maybe pick a fight like Daley/Hazelett where you don't have to make a big wager. Kind of a coin flip on that, but at least if you lose you don't lose that much.
Is this gonna be the chat thread or we gonna start a new one?
Is this gonna be the chat thread or we gonna start a new one?
start a new one
I'm watching football so I'll probably only watch the last two or three fights tonight
What are you watching? Did you watch the Cotton Bowl earlier?
What are you watching? Did you watch the Cotton Bowl earlier?
I didnt really watch anything today .I watched parts of all the games but had a birthday party to go to.
I'm watching Texas Tech - Michigan ST right now
Stoppage wasn't my favorite, but he was done.
Stoppage wasn't my favorite, but he was done.
I thought the samething .would have liked it to go about 10 more seconds
I thought the samething .would have liked it to go about 10 more seconds
As a fan? Maybe. As a man with money in JDS? No!
I thought the samething .would have liked it to go about 10 more seconds
As a fan? Maybe. As a man with money in JDS? No!
LOL.
I can certainly understand this sentiment. On the Dynamite card the other night, the stoppage in the Manhoef fight was just absolutely abysmal, like horrid.
But I didn't care, I won money!
By the way, can anyone believe that Kampmann submitted Volkmann? Beat that motherfucker at his own game!
I was kinda expecting it...
Kampmann's best work is on the ground.
I was kinda expecting it...
Kampmann's best work is on the ground.
I would actually have to agree. Pretty strange, really. For someone who is supposed to be a champion-level kickboxer, his standup in the UFC has looked pretty iffy. His groundwork on the other hand, while not quite being revolutionary, is pretty impressive. Still, I didn't expect to see him submit a no-gi grappling world champion.
That whole fight was kind of weird, actually, because Volkmann tagged him several times on the feet. I don't know if he's been training his stand up extra hard or what, but it was a lot better than I expect, although just like in the Thiago fight he went down way too easily when he did get hit.
I think it has more to do with Kampman's standup defense being absolutely terrible and being hit clean by everyone he's ever fought.
I think it has more to do with Kampman's standup defense being absolutely terrible and being hit clean by everyone he's ever fought.
So bet against Kampmann when he fights high-level strikers with known KO power. . .
LOL probably not the worst idea.
He did submit Drew McFedries, but he sure got blasted by Marquardt and Daley.
LOL probably not the worst idea.
He did submit Drew McFedries, but he sure got blasted by Marquardt and Daley.
Okay, let me revise. . .
Bet against Kampmann when he fights high-level strikers with known KO power who either have good TD defense (Daley) or a good ground game of their own (Marky Marquardt).
File it, captain.
IIRC even Condit was chewing him up standing.
File it, captain.
IIRC even Condit was chewing him up standing.
He was. I just watched that fight again yesterday and Condit was lighting him up on the feet.
Mr. IWS
01-03-2010, 10:27 AM
Sorry I missed chatting last night. Foot was trippin last night (ruptured my achillies last monday) So I just laid in the bed and watched with the wife.
Sorry I missed chatting last night. Foot was trippin last night (ruptured my achillies last monday) So I just laid in the bed and watched with the wife.
Any genius insights you'd like to share with the class?
Sorry I missed chatting last night. Foot was trippin last night (ruptured my achillies last monday) So I just laid in the bed and watched with the wife.
yeah boss share your wisdom
Mr. IWS
01-04-2010, 12:38 PM
Any genius insights you'd like to share with the class?
Bottom line. Tearing your achillies blows, but sex is easier, because I just have to lay there.
::thumbup::
[quote="zY|":1xh9rzob]
Any genius insights you'd like to share with the class?
Bottom line. Tearing your achillies blows, but sex is easier, because I just have to lay there.
::thumbup::[/quote:1xh9rzob]
::lmao::
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