View Full Version : Strikeforce: Le vs Smith
Thoughts on this one?
Depending on the odds, I'm liking Le, Jacare, and Melendez.
My thinking is that Le is going to be too technical for Smith. Scott Smith's one path to victory is always to get his ass kicked for a while and then land a huge shot which puts his opponents out. I think Le will probably be able to avoid that while tagging him with punches and kicks that earn him a decision. The way I see it is that he'll just stay on the outside and score points.
Melendez has been looking like a monster in his past several fights. Ishida had nothing for him. I know Thompson beat him the first time around, but I think Gil has probably improved since then. At underdog odds, I think he's worth a play.
As for Jacare/Lindland, to be honest I have never once seen Jacare fight, but I hear from a lot of people that he should take this one.
MMA_scientist
12-14-2009, 12:48 PM
The only fight I am betting is Jacare/Lindland.
There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat.
Linland might try to keep it standing, but if you have seen Linland's standup, you know there is no threat. Jacare has poor standup as well, but it is at least good as Linland's. If Linland tries to grapple him, he is going to get submitted.
I'd take Smith or leave that fight alone.Le is too one dimensional to bet on. The only thing he can do is stand up and strike .If Smth happens to take him down its over. IYou might get screwed betting Smith though because they might pay him to stand in the fight much like they did Shamrock
The only fight I am betting is Jacare/Lindland.
There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat.
Linland might try to keep it standing, but if you have seen Linland's standup, you know there is no threat. Jacare has poor standup as well, but it is at least good as Linland's. If Linland tries to grapple him, he is going to get submitted.
What do you think the line will be? At what point does Jacare lose value?
I'd take Smith or leave that fight alone.Le is too one dimensional to bet on. The only thing he can do is stand up and strike .If Smth happens to take him down its over.
The thing about Le's ground skills is that we haven't seen them. You might be surprised to learn that he was a state champ when he was younger and wrestled in both high school and college. If you watch his san shou matches then it's obvious he also has some great throws.
Also, it's been a while since I've seen Smith fight, but does he just like to stand and bang anyway? I can't remember him doing much on the ground.
You might get screwed betting Smith though because they might pay him to stand in the fight much like they did Shamrock.
I remember when that rumor popped up. I obviously can't say one way or the other, but I take it that you believe it to be true?
Mr. IWS
12-14-2009, 02:13 PM
I was on Shamrock against Le, and could not believe Shammy wouldnt even try to take him down. Im would not be suprised, knowing what we know now about EliteXC, if they paid Shammy to keep it on the feet.
Anyway.......
The thing I think about the Le/Smith matchup, is Le, IMO, has no intention of fighting anyone other than handpicked opponents now. Shields called him out on numerous occasions, and Le wanted no part, even giving up the title.
Once Shields booked the fight with Mayhem, all the sudden, he had some free time to fight a guy with zero ground skills.
I wont be betting on this one, but I really think Le only picked Smith, because he knows he will just outstrike him for the win.
MMA_scientist
12-14-2009, 04:22 PM
The only fight I am betting is Jacare/Lindland.
There is 0% chance that Linland can control Jacare on the ground. He is super explosive and the very best grappler in all of MMA right now. He also has solid takedowns for a bjj guy, and was known on the bjj circuit for his takedowns. I like wrestling, but world champion bjj guys eat olympic wrestlers for lunch on the mat.
Linland might try to keep it standing, but if you have seen Linland's standup, you know there is no threat. Jacare has poor standup as well, but it is at least good as Linland's. If Linland tries to grapple him, he is going to get submitted.
What do you think the line will be? At what point does Jacare lose value?
Sadly, I am not blessed with teh ability to gauge opening lines at all. I have no idea what the line will be. I originally thought there was a chance that Linland would be a favorite (not too long ago, he was considered the #1 MW in all of MMA), but after hearing that everyone is on Jacare, I expect Jacare to come in around -200. But I cannot stress this enough- I am literally the worse prognosticator of opening lines in the universe.
Jacare was beating Mousasi until the upkick, whick is a flukey win to me. I would still take Jacare in a rematch. If not for that upkick, we would all be talking about Jacare fighting Anderson Silva.
For me, he loses value @ about -250.
The thing about Le's ground skills is that we haven't seen them. You might be surprised to learn that he was a state champ when he was younger and wrestled in both high school and college. If you watch his san shou matches then it's obvious he also has some great throws.
Also, it's been a while since I've seen Smith fight, but does he just like to stand and bang anyway? I can't remember him doing much on the ground.
I remember when that rumor popped up. I obviously can't say one way or the other, but I take it that you believe it to be true?[/quote]
I firmly believe Shamrock was paid to stand up in the fight,theres no doubt in my mind.
I've seen tons of his San Shou fights and been at a few of them live. My former kickboxing instructor was really good friends with Cung so I got to meet him several times.San Shou is throws that are meant to be used just to get someone to the mat to score points. Once you have your opponent to the ground you let him back up ,thats a far cry from a ground game.I wonder is he even knows what to do with someone on the ground since the last 20 years has been spent on kickboxing.
He might win but I'd be scared to bet anyone that you havent seen what ground game he might or might not have
Of course Zak maybe right ,he might have hand picked Smith and Smith might not even be allowed to attempt a takedown.
I'd have to see the line on this but I doubt I touch it
MMA_scientist
12-14-2009, 06:07 PM
Cung Le was a very good high school wrestler and wrestled at West Valley College. He might not have submission game, but he can wrestle well enough. It is not like Smith is going to try to sub him...
Just sayin.
I've seen tons of his San Shou fights and been at a few of them live. My former kickboxing instructor was really good friends with Cung so I got to meet him several times.San Shou is throws that are meant to be used just to get someone to the mat to score points. Once you have your opponent to the ground you let him back up ,thats a far cry from a ground game.I wonder is he even knows what to do with someone on the ground since the last 20 years has been spent on kickboxing.
What about his high school and college wrestling background? Like I said, I'm pretty sure he took a state championship at one point. I know that was a while back, but everyone makes a big deal about every other fighters' college wrestling experience so we should do the same for a Cung.
Of course Zak maybe right ,he might have hand picked Smith and Smith might not even be allowed to attempt a takedown.
I've never, ever thought of Scott Smith as any sort of ground fighter. He's a banger who looks for the big KO to get wins. I like Smith--I heard a radio interview with him a little while back and he seems like genuinely nice guy--but he was getting beat by Pete Sell for God's sake before the crazy comeback knockout. I think Cung will beat him.
What about his high school and college wrestling background? Like I said, I'm pretty sure he took a state championship at one point. I know that was a while back, but everyone makes a big deal about every other fighters' college wrestling experience so we should do the same for a Cung.
I think he was a junior college wreslter and to tell you the truth I knew the guy for 5 years and never knew about it .Back then MMA wasnt popular and he had no intentions of it.
I'm not saying dont bet Le or too bet Smith I just think its dangerous but if Smith isnt going to try for the takedown I say go balls out on him .If its a small line(and I mean small) I might even take Le
I think he was a junior college wreslter and to tell you the truth I knew the guy for 5 years and never knew about it .Back then MMA wasnt popular and he had no intentions of it.
Why don't you tell us a bit more about your MA background?
I fought under Scott Sheeley(alot of sites spell his last name sheely) for 4 years .I went 11-1 in local events and once fought at the Arnonld Schwarzenegger Classic in Columbus . I fought San Shou just like Cung .
One day I got into the car with Scott and some other guys when we had been drinking leaving a party and hit another car at 70+ MPH . I broke left leg,dislocated my shoulder, broke my nose ,jaw ,orbital bone ,cheek bone, and skull over my left eye .I had 3 metal plates put in around my left eye to repair my cheek bone and skull and was told never to fight again by the doctors . That was the end of my fighting career.All because I was stupid.
Cung Le was the Ali of San Shou seriously.Until my instructor fought Le no one had ever scored a successful throw on him
They fought twice with Le dominating Scott both times.Here's a link to their first fight:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XX-9r0D3-8
Both fights they fought were on K-1 cards that were pay per view.Both fights were replayed on ESPN2 many times
About the 6:30 mark Scott gets the first throw ever on Cung Le, then 20 seconds later they stop the fight. The fight even though Scott stood no chance was stopped too early so they fought again a few years later which was a worse beating than the first fight. At the time of the first fight Scott was the number one contender and Cung destoyed him.
I still have the USH boxing gloves Cung gave me back then.I'll post a picture of them when I pull them out
Heres the gloves he gave me .I could only find one without waking up the girlfriend lol.These are big gloves ,14 oz .Most boxing gloves are 8 oz or 10 oz gloves
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/ebay002.jpg
Mr. IWS
12-15-2009, 10:12 AM
Nice Luke!
Very interesting stuff, Luke! Thanks for sharing. And I'm sorry to hear about your accident. There's no other way to put it except that that completely sucks.
Let me ask you a few more questions. . .
1. How do you feel about San Shou today? I am only mildly familiar with it, but I do remember thinking that before MMA came around it seemed to be one of the more realistic of the competition styles in the MA world.
2. What was Cung like as a person? Cool guy?
3. You say that Cung was the "Ali of San Shou." However, you don't seem to be too impressed with the way he's been able to transition those skills to MMA. I'd like to hear some more of your thoughts on this if you'd like to share.
As for my own MA background, I've mostly been a dabbler. My interest came about when I was very young--around 7 years old--and when I was a kid I was literally obsessed with ninjas. I read everything I could on the subject, watched every ninja movie I could get my hands on, played the shit out of Ninja Gaiden on the NES, etc. That was my goal in life: To become a ninja.
When I was about 11 I enrolled in a TKD class and got up to blue belt before my dad pulled me out because I couldn't get my math grade above a C. (It's ironic that I'm typing this right now, because I recently got back in school and have to go take a math final tomorrow and am worried I won't pass it. Math has always been a bad subject for me.) Around 15 I very briefly studied Wushu, getting to the second grade rank before getting out because I couldn't pay for the class. And I didn't study anything formally until I was 24 when I studied Judo, getting my yellow belt. Unfortunately, during class on night I hurt my back. It felt like a wicked pulled muscle and I expected it to heal completely, but while it's mostly healed at this point 4 years later it's still not 100% and sudden movements have a tendency to fuck it up and put me in pain for a few days. I'd like to get it looked at but don't have the money.
Anyway, about a year ago I went dojo shopping again, and looked at two MT schools and a karate school that taught a locally brewed style called Muso-kai that is similar to Kyokushin. I am still looking though, trying to find the right school at the right place. I think I might go look at an ITF TKD place next. A lot of people talk shit on TKD, but it's like anything, it depends on how you train.
1. How do you feel about San Shou today? I am only mildly familiar with it, but I do remember thinking that before MMA came around it seemed to be one of the more realistic of the competition styles in the MA world.
I loved San Shou.Not only did you have to worry about someone kicking or hitting you you had to worry that when you kicked or hit you them they were going to throw you to the ground. It seemed you had a lot more to focus on in the fight.It takes a lot of skill to catch someones kick and hold onto it while planning a throw with a 14 oz boxing gloves on.The throws hurt like hell sometimes and you'd be like :"why am I doing this?" but I loved it . Scott taught TKD and Karate also but I never took any of it. To tell you the truth I wanted to be a boxer but the closest gym to me was 55 miles so I kind of settled on kickboxing because it was only 7 miles away.
2. What was Cung like as a person? Cool guy?
Yeah he was cool .Just another down to earth guy. I mean he was a fighter so he was a little cocky in social setting but not to people he knew.He was a rockstar in the San Shou circle but most people had never even heard of San Shou.Back when Scott and Cung fought they only got paid 5,000 each for the fight and that was for the San Shou Title Belt.These guys didnt make shit for money back then ,one of the reasons they went to MMA. Both guys had normal houses and didnt make much more than the local guy at the factory,most of their money came from their gyms.Just because your on a pay per view K-1 bout does mean you have any money.
Now that was around 4-5 years ago.Cung was unknown to most everyone back then,now that he's in movies,on showtime and one of the faces of Strikeforce.I have seen him in 3.5 years so I dont know if hiss head got big or not. I doubt it because he was always a pollite person.For example Le and Sheeley were good friends and they fought twice and then hung out right after the fights.He was just a nice guy .Sheeley was the cocky one .But like I said that was before he became moderately famous so I dont know now.
3. You say that Cung was the "Ali of San Shou." However, you don't seem to be too impressed with the way he's been able to transition those skills to MMA. I'd like to hear some more of your thoughts on this if you'd like to share.
He was the Ali of San Shou and as far as I know he never lost a San Shou match and never got thrown again except the one time by Scott.
The reason I'm not impressed by his MMA thus far is because he has basically been fighting San Shou in MMA matches.He doest try to take anyone down and the closest thing to a take down he has done is a leg sweep.He maybe really good at MMA but I really have to wonder when he has no plans to go to the ground in his fights, stand up will only take you so far ,once someone takes him to the ground will the fight basically be over because he doesnt know what to do? I tend to think so. To Cungs defense he should be hard to take down,he spent all those years defending against throws so he should have a decent takedown defense.
I just want to see him on the ground in a fight.Maybe he'll get to hand pick his oppenants and keep fighting guys that wont go for a takedown.Maybe he doesnt plan on fighting very much longer,he is 38.Until he gets on the mat he's still just another San Shou Kickboxer to me
Interesting stuff! I'd like to seem him fight more often and really test himself, but he doesn't seem that motivated.
I'd agree that he seems more interested in fighting guys he knows he can beat instead of fighting the best in the world. I have to wonder, where's the warrior spirit? Do you think he's just afraid to lose?
Interesting stuff! I'd like to seem him fight more often and really test himself, but he doesn't seem that motivated.
I'd agree that he seems more interested in fighting guys he knows he can beat instead of fighting the best in the world. I have to wonder, where's the warrior spirit? Do you think he's just afraid to lose?
I really think his whole MMA career is just a big marketing scheme. He only fights in his home town of San Jose where his gym is .He's 38 so he cant have many more years left.I really think he's basically promoting his gym in his home town.As long as he stays undefeated it makes him look great to the San Jose people as a MMA fighter but if he were to lose that would take some of the prestige away from him.Lol I have just about talked myself into betting Le
I think Shields would destroy Le and Le knows it .What can you expect from him though? It would be like BJ Penn jumping into a boxing ring with Benard Hopkins.Yeah Penn has great boxing skills but not against Hopkins just like Le has MMA skills but not top level ones.I think he only fights safe fights for now. Strikforce isnt going to force him to fight anyone either because he can sell out the San Jose arena as long as he stays undefeated
I think I might go look at an ITF TKD place next. A lot of people talk shit on TKD, but it's like anything, it depends on how you train.
I have to take a "lifelong wellness" class this semester in school so I just registered for Taekwondo. I'm sure it will be a real riot. I'm going to try to kick someone in the head.
Odds are up!
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/233.png
Definitely not taking Cung Le on that shit. In fact, with a gun to my head my money would have to go on Smith at that line.
I was hoping Gil would open as a bigger dog.
Jacare may be worth a bet at that line from what everyone is saying, but I still haven't seen the guy fight.
Odds are up!
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/233.png
Definitely not taking Cung Le on that shit. In fact, with a gun to my head my money would have to go on Smith at that line.
I was hoping Gil would open as a bigger dog.
Jacare may be worth a bet at that line from what everyone is saying, but I still haven't seen the guy fight.
::lmao::
I just posted the lines in another thread .We must have both got the email at the sametime
I thought the samething .Le's odds are way too high
I hate to say it now but I was hoping for Cung Le at under -140 to make it a bet for me
I hate to say it now but I was hoping for Cung Le at under -140 to make it a bet for me
I was hoping for -185 or better. That was probably going to be my limit.
At the current odds, I'm thinking of .25u on Smith.
MMA_scientist
12-16-2009, 02:28 PM
I had Jacare at -240. I should made my bet. I don't know that I can take him at -285.
All of that crap looks too pricey for me. The underdogs all might have some value. I am not betting unless Jacare comes back down a lot. That is the only matchup I like.
MMA_scientist
12-17-2009, 03:28 PM
Jacare is back down a little. The more I think about this fight, the more convinced I am that Lindland cannot win.
Here is a video of a one sided beat down Jacare put on Lindland in ADCC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwtQFjjws8w
Jacare took him down, passed and submitted him in about 2 minutes. This was a prime Lindland. Lindland is older, slower, and less interested now. Jacare should win this easy. I am actually considering rasing by bet.
I can get Jacare at -250.Looks like people are taking Lidland because they dont know who Souza is
MMA_scientist
12-18-2009, 01:30 AM
Yeah the lines came back down, I got 5 units on Jacare @ -250.
Mr. IWS
12-18-2009, 08:22 AM
Jacare is back down a little. The more I think about this fight, the more convinced I am that Lindland cannot win.
Here is a video of a one sided beat down Jacare put on Lindland in ADCC: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwtQFjjws8w
Jacare took him down, passed and submitted him in about 2 minutes. This was a prime Lindland. Lindland is older, slower, and less interested now. Jacare should win this easy. I am actually considering rasing by bet.
This is making me want to get on Jacare, thanks for posting. I may join in here.
MMA_scientist
12-18-2009, 09:17 AM
I did raise my bet, up to 5 units, but I couldn't get him at -250. I still bought @-275 though.
Anyway, Lindland has to execute a perfect gameplan and make it last for 15 minutes (because he cannot finish anyone standing). Jacare is athletic and is not afraid to throw his hands. For Lindland to win, he basically has to clinch him the whole time, but not take him down, and not get taken down, not stand at range, and not get leglocked or guardpulled or flying triangled (all things Jacare does with regularity). Plus Jacare has already shown he can take him down, in the the ADCC match. Then add in the fact that Lindland is semi-retired and has looked pretty bad in his last 2 outings (even though he beat Negao, it was far from impressive). Its ridiculous, Jacare is going to win.
Mr. IWS
12-18-2009, 11:54 AM
I can get Jacare at -250, I think Im gonna be on it.
Lindland has had 2 fights since the Fedor fight in 2007, and he is 39 years old now, and as the Scientist said, he looked weak against Nacimento.
Jacare has top notch BJJ, and im not too concerned with his striking against Lindland. Mayhem is a decent striker, better than Lindland, and Jacare was holding his own with him in that department in the second fight. His loss to Mousasi was kind of suspect, because he had top control at the time he got kicked, so I cant hold that one against him too much.
Jacare via sub.
MMA_scientist
12-18-2009, 12:14 PM
Where are you guys getting this @ -250?
Mr. IWS
12-18-2009, 01:08 PM
Where are you guys getting this @ -250?
I make all my bets through local book
Where are you guys getting this @ -250?
matchbook
I was right about one thing .Cung Le has zero ground game .If he would have had any he would have ended this fight on several occassions . One time he was on top and Smith just held Le's hands and Le didnt know what to do so he just laid on Smith
Mr. IWS
12-20-2009, 04:30 AM
Scott Smith had him right where he wanted him the whole fight. Get dropped 4 or 5 times, than comeback for the win...LOL I dont think I have ever seen a guy have all these comeback wins like that.
Scientist, thanks for posing that ADCC clip of Jacare. That really swayed me towards playing on him.
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