12-16-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG

10 DIME - RICHMOND SPIDERS - Great matchup for the Spiders.

When you are a disciplined team like Richmond is, and you face a team that borders on the undisciplined, ideally the game favors the disciplined.

Richmond comes off a tough 8 point loss to VCU on the road which saw them blow a 9 point halftime lead - which I know didn't set well with head coach Chris Mooney.

This is a team that won 20 games last year, returns 4 starters from that squad including his starting backcourt of Kevin Anderson and David Gonzales.

In the frontcourt they return everyone and get back from a knee injury their starting center from 2 years ago Dan Geriot, who only led them in scoring and rebounding during the '07-08 season.

They already own neutral site wins over SEC foe Mississippi State, and Big 12 Missouri, and in getting off to 7-2 start is exactly what the doctored ordered and they still have games versus Florida and Wake Forest upcoming.

To put it bluntly, anything less than an NCAA tourney bid will be a disapppointing season for this Richmond team.

Yes, their 2 losses were on the road to the aforementioned VCU and at William and Mary, but allow me to point out those are both 6-2 teams that both returned 4 starters and are having great seasons.

South Carolina comes off an 11 point loss at Clemson and what alarms me is their 97-93 win at home to Jacksonville, a team that hasn't won a game this year.

You start allowing no win teams put up 93 points on you and it tells me you are not as good as advertised.

Richmond will put the Gamecocks in a half court set, force them to execute every single possession and trust me folks, it's not the strength of South Carolina.

In a complete contrast of styles, I will side with the smarter more disciplined team that will out execute, out defend, hit their free throws and possibly get the outright win.

FREE SELECTION - EAST CAROLINA PIRATES `

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

Game: Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder Dec 16 2009 8:05PM
Prediction: under
Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and Oklahoma City to finish UNDER the total. I played on the Mavericks to finish below the total in their most recent game. That resulted in a relatively easy winner as they combined with the Hornets for just 184 points. It was the fifth time in their last six games that the Mavs had combined with their opponent for less than 200 points - the other had 203 and that was against high-scoring Phoenix - a game that had a total of 216.5. Overall, four of those six games stayed below the total with an average combined score of only 186. The Thunder have also been involved in a number of low-scoring games recently. In fact, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 their last four games. Even though they've played some high-scoring teams, like Denver and Golden State, none of those games finished with greater than 196 points. The Mavs haven't played at team from the Northwest Division since way back on 11/13. That games, which came vs. Minnesota, produced a mere 166 combined points. Including that result, they've seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 64-33 their last 97 games vs. foes from the Northwest. Given those stats, its not surprising to learn that the Mavs have seen the UNDER go 6-2 the last eight times that they faced the Thunder/Sonics. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 12-5 the last 17 meetings in this series. That includes a 8-1 mark when the Thunder/Sonics were the home team. The Mavs only previous trip to OKC saw the teams combine for 183 points. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. Note that the total has climbed a couple of points from its opener, providing us with some additional line value. *8 blue chip


BEN BURNS

I'm taking the points with UAB. The Bearcats have already recorded some big wins and are certainly worthy of respect. That said, given the situation and venue, I believe that the wrong team is favored in this one.

Cincinnati is off a very tough double-OT loss vs. rival Xavier on Sunday. That was their first true road game and even Coach Cronin acknowledged: "My guys lost their cool. We were concerned about everything except executing offensively and defensively..." That type of loss can be tough to recover from, particularly as they battled back only to eventually lose. Now, they take on a well-rested UAB team which has won seven straight games and which is perfect at home on the season.

While the Bearcats may still be thinking about the Xavier loss, this is a very important game for the Blazers. UAB admittedly lost a number of key players from last year's team. However, the cupboard is far from bare. Elijah Millsap (Paul's brother) has been excellent. He's averaging 15.8 points and 9.3 rebounds. Senior F Howard Crawford, the team's top returning scorer from last year, is averaging a healthy 14.2 points and 3.9 boards. Meanwhile Jamarr Sanders is contributing 11.3 points and four rebounds per game, while averaging 2.7 assists. Speaking of assists, Aaron Johnson is leading the team with 4.2 assists per game, to go along with his 9.4 points. The junior produced 123 assists with just 63 turnovers last season. He's one of the Blazers' all-time assist leaders and UAB entered this season with a 26-7 record when he'd managed at least four assists.

That's not all though. The NCAA ruled that transfers George Drake and Kenneth Cooper, both of who already graduated from their previous schools, were eligible to play for the Blazers this season. The pair or seniors are combining to average 14.5 points and 8.2 rebounds. Prior to the season, Coach Davis had this to say of the NCAA ruling: "This is great news. You are talking about two fifth-year seniors with over 170 college games played between them. They will give us leadership, depth and maturity. We are very excited to have them cleared to play with us..."

UAB lost by seven at Cincinnati last season. They crushed the Bearcats (73-54) when the teams met here the previous season though. They also won 80-69 the previous time (2004) that they hosted the Bearcats.

The Bearcats are 0-3 ATS their last three games and 1-4 ATS the last five times that they were listed as favorites. They're just 2-8-1 ATS the last 11 times that they were favored by two points or less. They're 2-5 ATS their last seven against CUSA teams and 3-9-1 ATS the last 13 times that they played a road game with a total in the 120s.

While the Blazers haven't played the type of schedule that Cincinnati has, this is their chance to show that they're capable of playing with and beating a good team from a top tier conference. They've had the game circled and I expect them to rise to the challenge, scoring the minor upset. *10 Best Bet

[Mr. IWS]

SCOTT SPREITZER'S SERVICE Wednesday
I have three plays on Wednesday, including one from the NBA and two from college basketball.

I'm playing the Timberwolves on Wednesday night. Minnesota has been a serious money-maker of late, cashing eight of their last nine tickets. Last time out they even knocked off heavily favored Utah, 110-108, in Salt Lake. Tonight, they have a shot at their first two game win streak of the season, and a shot to avenge a pair of defeats to the Clippers already this season. LAC won both meetings at home, but Minnesota covered both. The T-Wolves fell 93-90 and 91-87 in Los Angeles. Obviously, with the close final scores, you can see that the T-Wolves had their chances to win both games. When Kurt Rambis took the coaching job in Minneapolis, he knew it would take time to introduce the "Triangle" attack to his new team. While they are just 4-21 SU, they are playing much better basketball as evidenced by the big ATS run. They are 3-6 SU after winning just one of their first 16 games. As mentioned, they took the Clippers to the wire twice in those first 16 outings, but lost by an average of 15.3 ppg in their other 13 losses. Their last six losses have come by just 8.3 ppg, and they have faced stiff opposition. As they begin to see a little light at the end of the tunnel, they're hosting a team that they know they can beat, and one that has been a horrible bankroll burner away from home. The Clippers have covered just nine of their last 32 road games. They have also covered just 22 of their last 67 when playing on just one day of rest. The Clippers have been welcomed competition to teams with losing home records, going 0-4 ATS the last four times. The T-Wolves have been perfect when playing with one day of rest, going 4-0, 100% ATS, and they have covered five of their last six against losing teams. Those final three situations add up to a 13-1 spot on the home team. The T-Wolves have played their best basketball against the Jazz and the Clippers. They have beaten Utah twice, and now grab their first win of the season over LAC. I'm playing the Timberwolves on Wednesday night.

I'm playing Cincinnati on Wednesday night. Bearcat coach Mick Cronin said he's happy to be on the road as he looks to refocus his team following their overtime loss to Xavier. UC heads to Birmingham ranked 25th in the nation, and they're actually 6-0 in regulation, with both losses (Gonzaga & Xavier) coming in overtime. Cronin has been pleased with his team's progress, but wants to challenge the "big boys" of the Big East this season. The most improved part of this season's team is their depth. Cinci has had some problems with their reserve players over the last couple of seasons, and the team has worn down when the starters needed a break. But this year's squad goes 10-deep. Nine players have seen action in all eight games, while a 10th player has played in seven games. All 10 of those players are averaging at least 9 minutes played per contest. In fact, it's UAB who has the depth problems this season. Mike Davis' Blazers are off to an 8-1 start. They have looked pretty decent, but against soft opposition, for the most part. The Blazers returned just one starter from last year's edition, and Davis has a total of nine newcomers on the roster. Injuries and academic problems have hurt the Blazer bench in the past. This season, it's primarily due to new players, and the fact that they just aren't as talented as they were a couple of years ago. Last April, this team had just five scholarship players on the roster and Davis was flirting with the idea of taking his coaching expertise to Washington State. He decided to hang around, and now must rebuild, practically from the ground floor. As you can see, while they are 8-1, I just don't believe this team is nearly as good as their record. Only seven players have seen action in at least eight games this season. Two regulars, forwards Cameron Moore and Ovie Soko are both questionable for tonight's game. UAB has relied on their backcourt, especially Elijah Milsap. But tonight, they'll face the best backcourt they have seen this season, led by Deonta Vaughn, who scores in double-figures, while posting a 4.0 to 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio. Cinci plays outstanding team defense and I believe they're going to wear down the depth-shy Blazers. The Bearcats hold the opposition to 38% shooting. They force four more turnovers per game than assists allowed per game. Cronin's troops out-rebound their opponents by an average of 40-29 per contest, and they're allowing just 59.6 ppg in regulation. Just one team has topped 62 points (sans OT) against them this season. And Cinci held Vanderbilt, Maryland, Gonzaga, and Xavier, to 78 of 211 from the field, or 36.9% shooting, including 17 of 66, or 25.7% from behind the arc. UAB has not fared well against strong defensive teams, covering just six of their last 18 against teams that hold the opposition to 64 ppg or less. UAB has not found much success against Big East opponents either, going 0-5 ATS, and they're 0-4 ATS the last four times as a dog of 1 to 5 1/2 points. In fact, UAB is just 12-22 ATS as an underdog with Mike Davis calling the shots, and they have covered just 8 of their last 26 when the line range is +3/-3. UAB has performed well with what they have, but I believe they're in for a bit of a reality check tonight. I'm playing Cincinnati on Wednesday, my Non-Conference Knockout of the Month.

I'm laying the points with Northern Colorado on Wednesday night. It wasn't too long ago when the Bears of Greeley held an RPI ranking of 336 in division-1 college basketball. But they head into Wednesday's home tilt with UL-Monroe ranked 22nd in the Mid-Major Top-25. UNC will be playing just their second home game of the season, despite this being their 11th game, overall. The Bears, at 8-2, are off to their best start through 10 games in their 108 years of basketball. Coach Tad Boyle, has a deep team in his fourth season in Greeley. Nine players have seen action in all 10 games, and eight of those players are averaging at least 14 minutes played per contest. Six players are scoring between 7.1 ppg and 16.3 ppg. Guard Will Figures leads the way in scoring and he and backcourt mate Devon Beitzel are a pain for opposing backcourts, averaging 3 1/2 steals per game. The two guards are averaging almost 30 ppg combined, despite playing all but one game away from home. The Bears are one of the more effecient perimter teams in the nation, ranking 8th in three-point FG percentage a season ago. Their numbers are slightly down this season, but I suspect they'll climb right back up to last year's numbers, playing nine of their next 14 games at home. UNC won the Rainbow Classic in November, knocking off host Hawaii, 81-75 in the championship game. They also own an impressive win over Big Sky opponent, Montana, who were picked for a second place finish in the conference by most. UNC had plenty of opportunities to beat Wyoming in Casper over the weekend, but couldn't overcome one-sided officiating. The Bears lost by just six points, 76-70, despite being whistled for 31 personal fouls. They were out-shot at the FT line, 43 to 18. Tonight, they'll host UL-Monroe for the first meeting between the two schools. The Warhawks (3-6) have dropped four straight, allowing 80.8 ppg on 49.8% shooting, including 38% from area code three. That's bad news against a team that normally shoots "lights-out" from the outside. ULM has not found their shooting touch this season. They're connecting on just 38% of their shots during the losing streak. And even though they may get some point-guard depth back tonight (backup Kenneth Averette may return) he won't be able to make up for the Warhawks horrible assist-to-turnover ratio. ULM has more turnovers than assists in each of their nine games this season, including games against Alcorn State and Grambling State. They have just 75 assists in nine games, or 8.3 apg, with 172 turnovers, or 19.1 tpg. They may be able to sneak by Alcorn and Grambling with numbers like that, but not when they venture on the road against stiffer opposition. This is also a conference sandwich spot for the Warhawks. They're off a 17-point loss to SBC frontrunner North Texas, and have a road game at Denver up next. I expect the Bears to take advantage of ULM's weak ball-handling, and their poor perimeter defensive play to get right back in the win column. UNC is on a 22-7-1 ATS run following a SU loss, and they're 14-2 ATS the last 16 times off a spread loss. How do they fare against teams outside of the Big Sky? How about 15-6-1 ATS the last 22 times. This is a great spot for the Bears and I'm laying the points. Northern Colorado is my Wednesday night Knockout. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

ATS LOCK CLUB

4 miss
3 oregon st

[Mr. IWS]

Cal Sports

5* No Colorado

4* lakers under

3* cinci

3* wright st over

[Mr. IWS]

Dwayne Bryant

Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves
Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves -1

First, I love the line movement here. The Clipps opened as a 1-point favorite and despite 70% of the reported bets coming in on them, this line has gone as far as Minnesota -1.5.

I also love how Minnesota is playing right now. They've covered eight of their last nine games, and have been very competitive at home. The Clipps are coming off a huge come-from-behind home win over Washington. This is the first game of a six-game road trip. Not the best of spots for LA.

The 'Wolves are also playing with double same-season revenge. Minny has visited the Clipps twice this season. And while they lost both meetings, it should be noted that they did cover both contests, and the total margin of defeat for the two games was only seven points. It should also be noted that Minnesota F/C Kevin Love (13 points & 12 rebounds per game) did not play in either of those games. His presence and the change of venue will reverse the 'Wolves' fortunes in this series tonight. Take Minnesota.

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

5% Ohio
4% org st.
4% ole miss
3% Sacramento