12-17-09

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Nick Parsons

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars Your pick will be graded at: 3
TITLE: *10* #1 NFL SHOCKER OF SEASON! 22-10/69% REASON FOR PICK: With their collective "backs-against-the-wall" I look for the Jaguars to do just enough to come away with the ATS victory or outright win in this one:

The Colts have clinched home field advantage and a first round bye throughout the Playoffs and have impressive SU and ATS stats this year; one team they've always had difficulty with though is the Jaguars; Indianapolis is 3-7 ATS its last ten vs. Jacksonville.

Although Colts coach Jim Caldwell insists that finishing the regular season undefeated isn’t a top priority, he plans to play his starters tonight.

On the other side of the field: Unlike the Colts, the Jaguars (7-6) have plenty riding on their three remaining games.

With a 6-3 conference record, Jacksonville would earn a playoff spot by winning all three contests. A loss would result in the Jaguars needing help to avoid missing the postseason for the eighth time in 10 years.

Jacksonville may be 2-7 ATS its last nine, but its 4-2 SU its last six and 5-1 SU its last six in front of the hometown faithful.

Bottom line: Despite desperately needing this victory to keep its post-season drive alive, and the added motivation of wanting to be the first team to hand the Colt's a loss, the Jaguars will also be playing with "revenge" after their 14-12 season opening loss against the Colts.

Manning looked shaky against Denver; he threw three early TD's, then three INT's, before leading the Colts on a late TD drive to preserve the win; and that was in front of the hometown crowd.

With an offense that revolves around the run, the Jaguars typically need Maurice Jones-Drew to play well to be successful; they are 6-2 when Jones-Drew rushes for at least 76 yards, although one of those losses came Sept. 13, when he ran for 97 yards and a TD.

However, in this big game at home, Jones-Drew has a huge opportunity to become a big part of this contest; Indianapolis has been vulnerable against the run lately, yielding an average of 119.7 yards in the last three games.

It certainly won't be a blowout, but there are simply too many significant factors working in favor of the Jaguars on Thursday night.

No matter what they say to the media/public, the Colts have to have a small amount of complacency buried in their sub-conscience somewhere that if they are hit hard early in Thursday's game, they will be more likely to take one on the chin and roll over; look for JACKSONVILLE to improve to 5-1 ATS vs. division opponents this season and for Indianapolis to fall to 3-3 ATS vs. division opponents!

*10*

[Mr. IWS]

Fargo 10*---Jags

[Mr. IWS]

RAS:

All for 1 Unit

707 Auburn +10'

714 Fresno -13'

718 E'ville -10

[Mr. IWS]

B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G
6* W ido w Wi seg uy Colts/Jags A FC So uth Sh owdo wn on Jacksonville +3(+110 at sportsinteraction)

[Mr. IWS]

charlie

nfl & nba. nfl jaguars+3'. nfl colts @ jaguars over 43& nba miami+4. (500* Triple Play 2 of 3 must win or week is free is free)
nba. portland-2' (30*)
cbb. florida international+16 (20*)
cbb. troy-13 (20*)
cbb. auburn+10 (10*)
nba. chicago-2 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

DOC

4-Unit Play #703 Take Orlando/Miami OVER 200 (8 p.m. EST, Thursday)
These teams played a few weeks ago and both teams shot well under their season average and this game still wound up at 197. Orlando only shot 60 percent from the free-throw line in that game as well so that shaved some points off the score. Miami has been terrible defensively lately and six of their last seven opponents have scored more than 100 points. That looks good for the over when Orlando has scored 100 or more in eight of nine games. They have allowed 98 or more points in eight of the last nine. We expect the pace here to be quick and last time these teams played they took a combined 51 three-point attempts. If we get a repeat of that here we should have no problem getting over the number. Four straight meetings in this series have gone over the posted number.

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM ¦‰

double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 705 PHO

Analysis: Stan is Betting PORTLAND. Stan notes that Portland finished a 4 game East Coast road trip on the 12th and returned home to play a 2 game home stand on the 15th before ending back out on theÅ’ road for another 4 game road trip. Having won and pushed on Tuesday against Sacramento Stan expects a better effort tonight in Portland's second game back at home. Portland will want to secure a win here as their next 4 games are all tough ones on the road. They go to Orlando, Miami, Dallas & San Antonio. Portland wins by 8-10 points here. TAKE PORTLAND as STAN'S TNT WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog NHL
Handicapper: Wunderdog Sports
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets - Thursday December 17, 2009 7:05 pm
Pick: 5 units TOTAL: Under 5.5 (-125)

The Phoenix Coyotes have been getting a great job from behind the net of late, and have limited opponents to just 19 goals, under two per contest over their last 10. The Blue Jackets have produced just 19 goals in their last eight games and an even worse five in their last three. The Coyotes are playing way under the total vs. an opponent who scored two or less in their last outing as they have turned in a 19-6-1 mark to the UNDER in that situation. They have also played UNDER to the tune of a 37-16-2 mark overall in their last 55 games. The Blue Jackets are on the short side of the total when posted as a home favorite, turning in a 15-7 mark in their last 22 to the UNDER. These teams make the script complete as they have played UNDER in the last four meetings. The UNDER gets the nod in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence 12/17

Analysis: Play On: Jacksonville Jaguars (Game 302)
Note: With their record-setting 22nd straight regular-season win, the Colts take to the division road attempting a series sweep of the Jaguars, a situation of which they are 0-6 ATS in their last six attempts. They have also not fared well in the month of December as favorites of a double-digit win versus .500 or greater opposition, checking in with a 1-7 ATS record. More importantlyˆ, our database reminds us that since 1980: undefeated NFL favorites are 2-13 ATS form Game Thirteen out when going into revenge, including 0-5 ATS when taking on a division opponent. With that we turn to Jack Del Rio and his 20-7 ATS mark as a dog with revenge. The Colts edged Jacksonville, 14-12, at home in the season opener and with the Jaguars still in the playoff picture, look for the points to become the play here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Jacksonville.

[Mr. IWS]

MREAST NCAAB THURSDAY 62-40 ATS SYSTEM SIZZLER
The Troy Trojans getting a bump in the line, mostly due to a win vs Auburn, but Auburn may be an SEC team, they don't have SEC caliber talent. The Trojans have 3 wins vs teams not even playing at the div-1 level so getting too much respect here. Privateers getting dissed by the books of a loss as a favorite by 18 to FAU, which opens the flood gates here for a big play on situation for them. Teams posted as a 10+ dog, off a 15+ point loss as a favorite, have blitzed the books for an 82-40 ATS mark, good for 67.2% covers. It shows the reaction to the last game, and how seriously it inflates the line. New Orleans gets this one.

#709 NEW ORLEANS PRIVATEERS @ #710 TROY TROJANS 8PM EST

PLAY ON #709 NEW ORLEANS PRIVATEERS +13 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

ATS FINANCIAL

3 Unit--Under 43.5 Jax/Indy

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning

playmaker - Over 199.5 Magic

playmaker - Jaguars +3

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

CBB
Weber State

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney
Thursday ...
100-Dime INDIANAPOLIS COLTS ... Don't buy into Indy coach Jim Caldwell's coy ways. He's not fooling anyone, in saying this will be like Game 3 of the preseason. He's not fooling anyone when saying he's not sure how long his starters will play. Plain and simple - he's not fooling anyone.

For this game, tonight, it's full speed ahead with the pedal to the metal! At some point this week, more times than not, I've heard or read into quotes by Caldwell that tell me how clear it is he plans on treating tonight's game like Weeks 1 through 14 - and not the preseason.

I'm not too worried about Jacksonville's traditionally rugged defense, not when its pass D is ranked 26th. Not when Peyton Manning is my quarterback and not when Reggie Wayne has tallied at least 100 receiving yards in five of his last six games against the Jaguars.

There's the steadily improving rushing game, which will tie up Jacksonville's defensive line for a while, not to mention make it extremely tired. You can expect Jags running back Mike Hart to continue turning heads with his power running, giving Joseph Addai breathers here and there. He's become a key component to help provide the Colts with a productive running game, and when you see a back showing signs of life like that, you know he is going to get more work. That means both sets of legs will remain fresh, and the Colts can opt to the running game when necessary.

And when Manning does decide to go up top, you're going to hear the name Pierre Garcon called upon more often. Wayne will get his, but teams are frustrating him with double-coverage, and that means Manning needs to look for a deep-ball threat. Enter Garcon. I expect him to go deep tonight, and haul in a few big passes.

Look, Indianapolis might not have anything to play for, in terms of seeding and homefield, but there's still some sense of pride out there. There's still the matter of competing against the Saints for being the only undefeated team in the league.

Caldwell or Manning might not say it. Sean Payton or Drew Brees might not say it, but you better believe there's underlying theme for both of these teams. That is 'not' to be the first team to lose this season. And since New Orleans doesn't play until Saturday, I'm thinking we're going to see the Colts send a message to the Saints ... don't think that little mental game doesn't go on. Anyone who disagrees with that theory doesn't understand competition and probably never played sports.

Lay the road chalk, which happens to be a field goal right now, with a rising moneyline attached to it. If in fact the game goes to 3-1/2, then, yes, you'll want to buy that half point down. I don't believe the oddsmakers would make a bold move and open themselves up to be sided in this game, but in the event they do, buy the half point down.

[Mr. IWS]

RANDALL THE HANDLE

Colts @ Jaguars

While there is much speculation on whether the Colts will play starters for the majority of their remaining games, we are still comfortable endorsing Indianapolis in this one. Jacksonville has not be particularly good against the pass and even if Peyton Manning is sat down in second half, it will be done with a lead. Colts dominated stats in first meeting but just edged out a 14-12 win. A Manning interception in Jacksonville's end zone and RB Joseph Addai fumbling deep in Jags territory prevented a much larger disparity on the scoreboard. Jacksonville has just three home covers in past 15 as host.TAKING: Indianapolis –3

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Footbal Lock Club

3 - Colts (-3)

[Mr. IWS]

seabass

100* steam play NBA Orl/Mia under


NFL
50* Colts

NCAA
50 * Troy
50* Denver

NHL
50* Mon un

[Mr. IWS]

kelso bb best bets club

5* fresno st -15
5* heat +4

[Mr. IWS]

Stan Sharp | NBA Sides Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM ‹
double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 705 PHO
Analysis: Stan is Betting PO½RTLAND. Stan notes that Portland finished a 4 game East Coast road trip on the 12th and returned home to play a 2 game home stand on the 15th before ending back out on the road for another 4 game road trip. Having won and pushed on Tuesday against Sacramento Stan expects a better effort tonight in Portland's second game back at home. Portland will want to secure a win here as their next 4 games are all tough ones on the road. They go to Orlando, Miami, Dallas & San Antonio. Portland wins by 8-10 points here. TAKE PORTLAND as STAN'S TNT WISE GUY GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

[Mr. IWS]

vegas runner

triple-dime bet 319 CLE / 320 KAN Over 37.0 Bodog
Analysis:

*** NFL 3* "TRUE STEAM" GAME OF THE WEEK ***



These are the kind of "Steam" Bets that I've always loved betting the most...even back when I was just a runner, because they were the ones that were concealed so well...And you really had to have some solid sources to uncover...

And that's the case again with this bet...because the line move looks so insignificant...But I can tell you that nothing could be further from the truth...

This line first went up at 36.5, and within 5 minutes...the books were willing to ta~ke it up to the "Key Number" of 37...

But what we saw as a few days past...was that the books, in anticipation of the public really liking the Under...went ahead and dropped it back to 36.5...And this time, the Wiseguys decided to work the market some...by leaving it alone...

This gave the books plenty of confidence that they would now only have to deal with the Betting Public...So in an effort to give them the "worst of it"...we saw a handful drop their lines even lower...And that's when the Wiseguys decided, it was once again time to Unload...

And with so many more "Outs" offering lines for this weekend's games...the Outfits really went to work and bet the OVER everywhere they could...

In fact, they bet it enough...that even with so much Under money expected by the public come game-day...the books were still willing to take it back to that "Key Total" of 37...Higher than their opener...

Again, these are the "moves" that very few pick up on, without having a solid source...

Fortunately for us, we have plenty of sources who are actually behind a lot of these moves...Which is why we can be sure that the Outfits love the Over...

Finally, I made sure to check the forcast...because we all know that the mention of snow will force a huge adjustment downwards...But it appears that won't be a problem on Sunday...

Don't fear seeing this line drop some on game-day, because we all know that public money outweighs wiseguy money, especially in the NFL...And since it appears that the Outfits got down as much as they wanted on this Under...the books may feel confident enough that they won't look to take another position...and therefore lower the Total, in an attempt to give the public the worst of it...

But rest assured, you and I both...are on the same side that the Betting Syndicates will be rooting for come Sunday...And with enough public money on the Under...we just may have the Books rooting in that Over for us as well...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast marquee

Colts -3

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Magic/Heat UNDER 201

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":

Michael Beasley dunked home a Dwyane Wade miss to seal a victory in the waning seconds of the Heat’s visit to Orlando last month, and the Magic will look to atone for that surprising loss Thursday night when they try for their seventh win in eight trips to Miami.

The Magic appeared on their way to a 13th victory in 14 regular-season games against the Heat when Wade air-balled a jumper in the closing seconds, but Beasley grabbed it and dunked it to give Miami a controversial 99-98 win.

Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points.

Orlando throttled the Raptors last night; I expect an offensive "letdown" this evening though.

Dwight Howard spent the evening showing why he’s the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, finishing with 14 rebounds and eight blocks.

Keep in mind the total has gone "under" the posted number in 11 of Orlando's last 16 on the road overall.

On the other side of the court: On the topic of his teams recent success: "We have to get that chip back on our shoulder," forward Udonis Haslem said. "At the start of the season, people were picking us to finish near last in the league. Then we started well and people started thinking we're better than people first thought. We might have exhaled a little bit. But that can't be us. We have to get it back."

It's interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of five games vs. division opponents.

Bottom line: I expect both teams to create offense through their defense; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money is on the UNDER!

*9* UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Ron Raymond

Magic/Heat UNDER 199

When ANY NBA Team Played as Road team as a Favorite - Before a non division game - Last 2 years - During the month of December - Coming off vs Eastern conference opponent - Coming off a 1 ATS win - Scored between 116 - 120 POINTS FOR in their last game; the UNDER is 11-4-0 for the Road Favorite (ORL) in this spot the last 2 seasons.

ATS Calculator has this total landing on 198.91 points.

Parity Value Index has the UNDER coming in at 62% on this game.

Take the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Lineback

CHICAGO BULLS -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Dwayne Bryant

ORLANDO MAGIC -4

Big revenge spot for the Magic, as Miami went into Orlando as a 9-point dog on 11/25 and came away with an upset win, 99-98. The Heat were +8 in rebounds and +7 in turnovers, and Orlando shot just 60.6% from the free-throw line (13 missed free throws). Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points. What makes that game sting even more is the fact that Orlando was embarrassed on national TV.

Miami is coming off a huge 20-point home win over Toronto, which snapped their four-game home losing streak. We had Miami in that easy win, but we also had Orlando when they lost to the Heat in that first meeting of the season. Miami had a long team meeting (about their home court woes) leading up to that Toronto game. They obviously responded. But will the same intensity be there tonight? And will Miami be able to match the intensity that revenge-minded Orlando is sure to bring? I don't think so. We know Orlando is the more talented team, but this could get ugly with them also being the more motivated team.

I say Miami's win in Orlando was the exception, not the rule. Orlando will not be outrebounded again. The Magic are 5th in the NBA in rebound margin, while Miami comes in at 19th. That edge on the glass will be a huge factor tonight. Orlando is not a great free-throw shooting team (70.7%), but I expect them to do better than 60.6% this time around.

Even with the loss in the last meeting, Orlando is still 10-3-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings, including 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Miami. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Payback time for Orlando. Having the better team playing with same-season revenge is a winning combo. And being able to exact that revenge on national TV (TNT) only adds to Orlando's motivation. Lay it with Orlando.

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3

The Jaguars are down to their final lifeline. They will need to win out the have a shot at the playoffs. Their first test is the best NFL team in the league and the team with the best winning streak in NFL history. Taking the Jaguars seems not logical and one would ask why go against that streak? To me a game is a game and what happened yesterday or last year means nothing. It is hard to win an NFL Game. Just ask the Detroit Lions. Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell said only healthy players would play. With that comment I do not think you will see Mathis or Freeney on defense tonight or if you do it will be a limited role. Clearly the Colts would love to finish 16-0, but all they really care about is a Super Bowl Ring. I like the Jags in this spot even if the Colts were healthy. The Jaguars have a huge defense that should slow down the Colts already bad running game. On offense the Jags are equally as big and will be going against a banged up defense. Jacksonville has played Indy well over the past few games and the Colts have not been super on the road. I have seen their flaws and great comebacks due to the great play of Payton Manning, but I have also seen the bad closing of teams they played and of course they got by with a little bit of luck. The Jaguars will be playing in front of a sellout crowd tonight. Look for the Colts streak to end or late magic by Manning will have them win at the end of the game. Could this possibly be a Colts win and Jags cover? The public is all over the Colts tonight. Take Jacksonville.

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes

ORLANDO MAGIC -4

We have a situational spot in this game as the Orlando Magic certainly won’t take this game lightly because they have a bad taste on their mouths after losing at home in the final second against this Heat team.

After that loss, the Magic are 8-2 and last night they had an easy game against the Raptors. The Magic easily spanked the Raptors 118-99 in which they shot 57.3% from the field and 14-30 behind the arc so we can say that the Magic are pretty confident coming for this game. Because it was an early rout, Stan Van Gundy could rest their starters for this game and Dwight Howard was the most utilized player with “only� 34 minutes.

Meanwhile the Magic finally broke their slump by spanking the Raptors at home 115-95. Note that they were 1-4 L5 games prior to that game and they already showed some problems this season to compete against top caliber teams. Against the Raptors they shot 51.7% from the field, they outrebounded the Raptors 45-32 with 12-4 in offensive boards and scored 52 points in the paint. However we must not forget that the Heat faced a “soft� opponent in Toronto and tonight we can be sure that the Magic won’t be soft against them. The Magic are the third best team in the league protecting the paint and the best team in % defensive rebounding.

In “that� game between these two teams, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis had sub par performances by combining to shot 6-20 from the field, for tonight look for them to have big performances and the Magic to roll past Miami completing their revenge in front of a national audience. Take the Magic in here.

Pick: 3 Units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Orlando Magic (-4)

[Mr. IWS]

Spartan

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3

It does not happen often enough but every once in a blue moon Vegas will give you an opportunity to make a nice score and most people just will not take advantage of it. Well here it is and I am fully prepared to go with the opportunity. The public and the squares will just love getting Peyton Manning and the undefeated Colts here with such a low number. Easy pickings right? Wrong!! I've seen this movie before guys and know how it ends so this is not really fair. I think the Colts here might be the biggest sucker bet of the season. The Colts sport a perfect record, have the games best quarterback and the Jag's just lost at home to the Dolphins and Chad Henne. No way the Jags get this done, well guys, those fellas have a giant hook protruding from their lip and they are getting reeled in like a trophy Marlin. I am going Double Star Release on the home dog Jaguars plus the 3!!

[Mr. IWS]

vegasrunner | NFL Side Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:20 PM Ââ€*

triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND
Analysis: *** NFL 3* BEST BET OF THE DAY ***
BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the� 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3

The Jaguars always play the Colts tough. Back in Week 1, they were a failed 2-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime and ending Indianapolis' dream for an unbeaten season almost before it even started. It was the third time in four meetings that a game in this series was decided by three points or less. No matter what HC Jim Caldwell says, the Colts really have NOTHING to play for. They have already clinched the division and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is in MUST win territory. They have won five of their last six at Alltel Stadium where they may have a bad spread record, but that's because they have failed to cash ten straight times here when favored. Tonight, they are an underdog. This is the first time all season that a home game will not be blacked out in Jacksonville. Weather will work to the Jaguars advantage as the forecast calls for strong winds and rain and remember that the Colts are a dome team playing outdoors. Jacksonville is our 20* AFC South Game of the Month.

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NBA Total Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM Ââ€*

double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:
** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the late TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Magic/Heat UNDER 201

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":

Michael Beasley dunked home a Dwyane Wade miss to seal a victory in the waning seconds of the Heat’s visit to Orlando last month, and the Magic will look to atone for that surprising loss Thursday night when they try for their seventh win in eight trips to Miami.

The Magic appeared on their way to a 13th victory in 14 regular-season games against the Heat when Wade air-balled a jumper in the closing seconds, but Beasley grabbed it and dunked it to give Miami a controversial 99-98 win.

Rashard Lewis had his worst game of the season in the Magic’s loss to the Heat, shooting 3 of 15 and finishing with nine points.

Orlando throttled the Raptors last night; I expect an offensive "letdown" this evening though.

Dwight Howard spent the evening showing why he’s the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, finishing with 14 rebounds and eight blocks.

Keep in mind the total has gone "under" the posted number in 11 of Orlando's last 16 on the road overall.

On the other side of the court: On the topic of his teams recent success: "We have to get that chip back on our shoulder," forward Udonis Haslem said. "At the start of the season, people were picking us to finish near last in the league. Then we started well and people started thinking we're better than people first thought. We might have exhaled a little bit. But that can't be us. We have to get it back."

It's interesting to note that Miami has seen the total go "under" the posted number in three of five games vs. division opponents.

Bottom line: I expect both teams to create offense through their defense; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money is on the UNDER!

*9* UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | NFL Side Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:20 PM *â€*
triple-dime bet 302 JAC 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 301 IND
Analysis:

*** NFL 3* BEST BE•T OF THE DAY ***

BODOG is already at +3.5...If your book still has 3, then the vig should allow you to buy the 1/2 point very cheaply...So make sure you take this up to 3.5...VR


©2009 Pregame.com - All rights reserved. Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.

vegas-runner | NBA Total Thu, 12/17/09 - 10:35 PM *â€*
double-dime bet 705 PHO / 706 POR Under 202.5 Bodog
Analysis:

** NBA on TNT 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

With so much money expected to be bet on the Over by the Public...I highly recommend that you wait until closer to tip-off, because this is the la•te TNT match-up...And although the Wiseguys went UNDER as soon as this line went up...the public money has already forced the adjustment upwards again...giving us even more betting value...VR

[Mr. IWS]

CHRIS JORDAN

Thursday winners ...
300? COLTS - What's that you say? You thought there were some injury issues with this defense.

How about linebacker Gary Brackett?

Indy's athletic enforcer has teamed with Clint Session to form one of the deadliest duos this team has seen in quite some time. They looked tremendous against the Broncos last Sunday and I believe they'll be all over David Garrard. Granted, Garrard has the wheels to be dangerous, unlike Denver's Kyle Orton, but Brackett has the knack of using his instincts and intelligence to sniff out play-action and misdirection by opposing offensive units.

I'm counting on him to be the key to this defensive push today, as Garrard has to be pressured the entire game.

Shouldn't be that hard, as the defense has been doing for most of the season.

The undefeated Colts come into this game tied for second in the league at 16.7 points allowed, some of the smallest points allowed in a dozen or so years. The last time the defense was this stingy the Colts allowed 16.4 points per game in 2007.

So with that, my question is if the Colts are being stingy on defense and are busy shutting down the Jags, how in the world will the home team be able to keep up with one of the most prolific offenses in the league?

This is a no-brainer.

MAKE NOTE - the line is currently -3. Lay the field goal only, and if the line goes to -3-1/2, then buy the hook down. Quite honestly, it's advisable to buy the 1/2 point down to -2-1/2 off the 3 as well, in the event of garbage-time scoring in the fourth quarter, resulting in a three-point win.

[Mr. IWS]

Frank patron
100000 unit game of my career #4
indianapolis colts -3

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock

4 Units Orlando Magic
3 Units Indianapolis Colts

[Mr. IWS]

Lee Sterling from Paramount Sports:

1* Indianapolis

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports

NFL Selections

2(**) Jacksonville Over 42

[Mr. IWS]

ANDRE GOMES

3* Chicago Bulls
3* Orlando Magic

[Mr. IWS]

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends

*200 New York Knicks +3 (NBA)
*200 Dallas Stars +108 (NHL)

*200 Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Let me first say that if the Colts were not undefeated I would grade this play at least a *300.
Tonight we have the trends and public betting siding with one another. However, the line is reversing against both. Currently 75% of the public is wagering on the Colts and the line has dropped a full point. It appears that the "sharps" are betting on the Jags tonight.

What trends are the public betting with: The Jags have not won a game since 1995 in week 15 or greater vs a team on a 2 or more winning streak, they are 0-12 in this situation. The Colts are 6-0 ATS on Thursdays.
We have all heard about the Colts playing every man, going for 13-0 and an undefeated season. That may be true, but would you risk losing Peyton Manning and a chance to win a Super Bowl for a undefeated season? I think we will see 2nd string rookie qb Painter tonight. The Colts have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and appear to have no interest in pursuing a perfect regular season at all costs. Coach Jim Caldwell has indicated all his healthy players will play, but for how long remains to be seen.

Let's not forget about the last meeting between these two teams. Indianapolis made a defensive stand with under 2 minutes remaining to seal a hard-fought 14-12 victory in Week 1.

For the first time this season at home, the Jaguars will be playing in front of a capacity crowd. They have performed well at home despite the lack of support (they are 5-2 this year in Jacksonville), and the increased presence in the stands this week can only help.

Something else to point out for tonight. The Jags will be in 2nd place in the AFC South tonight with a win!
Take the Jags and all the points you can get for the cover!

[Mr. IWS]

Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends

*200 Auburn +10 (CBB)
*200 Denver -17 (CBB)

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* NFL Jaguars +3
20* NFL Jaguars under 43
20* NBA Knicks +3
10* NBA Trailblazers -2
10* CBB Florida State under 131
10* CBB UNLV over 150

[Mr. IWS]

C-Star Sports

5000 Units Jacksonville plus the points
1000 units Phoenix /Portland over the total
1000 Units N.C. State minus the points over Elon University
50 units Jacksonville/Cots under the total

[Mr. IWS]

KBHoops

5* Suns OVER 202.5 *POD*
5* Auburn +10
5* Troy -11.5

[Mr. IWS]

Pitbull

20 units Bulls -3
10 units Heat Under 199
20 units Jaguars Over 43
10 units Jaguars +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG


I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).


Game: Phoenix at Columbus (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -130 (risk 4 to win 3.1)
The Phoenix Coyotes have been getting a great job from behind the net of late, and have limited opponents to just 19 goals, under two per contest over their last 10. The Blue Jackets have produced just 19 goals in their last eight games and an even worse five in their last three. The Coyotes are playing way under the total vs. an opponent who scored two or less in their last outing as they have turned in a 19-6-1 mark to the UNDER in that situation. They have also played UNDER to the tune of a 37-16-2 mark overall in their last 55 games. The Blue Jackets are on the short side of the total when posted as a home favorite, turning in a 15-7 mark in their last 22 to the UNDER. These teams make the script complete as they have played UNDER in the last four meetings. The UNDER gets the nod in this one.



Game: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Pittsburgh -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Penguins have been on the better side of nine of their last 12 games and are playing very well. They are in a great spot in two different ways for this one as they are an amazing 10-1 in their last 11 as a road favorite, as well as 17-4 in their last 21 after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. The Flyers are below the .500 mark and are not playing well on the season and were destroyed in their last game by these same Penguins 6-1. The Flyers, with just 14 goals in their last nine games, and when you consider they scored six in one of them, they have tallied just eight in the other eight games. It’s hard to win against one of the NHL's premier teams scoring once per game, I'm going with the Penguins here.



Game: Dallas at Atlanta (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Dallas +110 (moneyline) (risk 4 to win 4.4)
The Atlanta Thrashers started out playing well at home, but have a losing record in their last seven played here. The problem has been behind the net as they have allowed three goals per game during the last seven games on home ice. The Thrashers have played to the level of their competition as they are 1-4 vs. teams with a road winning percentage of .400 or less, and 2-6 when facing an opponent that allowed five or more goals in their last game. The Stars are in the fourth game of the road trip and will be glad to land here. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. the Thrashers, including winning the last five times they have come in here. I'll go with Dallas in this one.


Game: Dallas at Atlanta (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 5 units on Dallas +1.5 goals -270 (puckline) (risk 5 to win 1.9)
This is a tremendous opportunity on the puckline. Dallas has all but owned the Thrashers as they have taken 10 of the last 11 when these teams have squared off. In Atlanta, they have swept the Thrashers five straight times. Getting a goal and a half in this situation is value-laden even at this high price. I'll go with Dallas on the puckline.


Game: New York Rangers at New York Islanders (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on New York Rangers -120 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.5)
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -125 (risk 4 to win 3.2)
The Islanders had their run, but overall remain a poor team. They really have had a tough time finding the net as they have scored just 19 times in their last 10 games, under two per contest, and just 26 in their last 13. The Rangers are in a similar spot scoring just 11 in their last seven, and were beaten at home by the Islanders last night 2-1. I expect the Rangers to reverse that decision tonight as they are 13-6 in their last 19 as a road favorite, while the Islanders are a dreadful 4-17 when they play the second game of consecutive nights. I like this one to go UNDER, and I'll back the Rangers here to exact revenge.



Game: Nashville at Edmonton (9:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nashville -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Nashville was off to a horrible start that saw them drop six straight, and seven of eight, but have been on a tear since. They have come out on the right side of 17 of their last 24 games, including four of their last five played on the road. Edmonton is not a good team and their five-game streak without a loss came to an end last time out. I would them to be on the down cycle now, especially with Nashville coming in as the Oilers are a putrid 3-12 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. The Predators are 11-2 in their last 13 against Edmonton and that includes 5-1 in Edmonton. I'll go with Nashville here.



Game: Anaheim at San Jose (10:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 5.5 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Sharks have produced eight UNDERs in their last 12 games at home when the total is posted at 5.5 or more. Lately the offense has been down as they have managed just 10 goals in their past five games. The Ducks have now played nine of their last 12 on the road with a posted total of 5.5 or more to the UNDER. Site specific, these teams have now combined to produce 17 of 24 to the UNDER, or 71% of the time. The Ducks have upped the ante for the UNDER as they have played to a 12-3-1 mark in their last 16 after a win. The Sharks are 30-14-7 to the UNDER in their last 41 against the Pacific, and these teams are 17-4-5 to the UNDER in their last 26 meetings! I'll go with the UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

vegas runner

double-dime bet 701 NYK / 702 CHI Over 201.5 BetUS
Analysis: â€*** NBA 2* LATE STEAM **

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vegas-runner | NBA Sides Thu, 12/17/09 - 8:05 PM *â€*
double-dime bet 704 MIA 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 703 ORL
Analysis: ‡

** NBA on TNT 2* LATE STEAM **

BODOG is using +4.5...Make sure you shop this one, it looks like the public likes the other side...VR

[Mr. IWS]

vegas runner

double-dime bet 706 POR -1.5 (-110) Bodog vs 705 PHO
Analysis:

** NBA on TNT 2* LATE STEAM **

There are a handful of sources who move "Steam" that say they already took some -1.5...and may grab some more before kick-off...That is the only reason that Portland is still favored because the betting public is really coming in strong on Phoenix...I'm not one to look to fade the Public, and truth is...I'm mostly concerned in what the Wiseguys are… doing...But it seems that lately, them 2 have been on the opposite sides & totals...And since we've Cashed Over 65% of the L/75+ Bets we've made...I'll stick to the sharp side for now...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso FB

5 units Jags +3


BB

10 units UNLV -13

[Mr. IWS]

MR EAST

5* Phoenix Suns

[Mr. IWS]

EXECUTIVE

250 colts
250 fla st

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

15 Dime Colts
5 Dime Under

[Mr. IWS]

MAXIMUS REPORT

NCAA BB 12/17/09
Don’t see any games that meet the criteria for Best Bets
SOLIDS:------------------------------------Projection
Evansville -10.5 vs. Georgia Southern____________Evansville 70-51

OVER/UNDER:
Under 139.5 Denver/Florida International__________132
Other Projections: Not recommended plays – just how we see the games.
AWAY ---------------------------Home Spread ---------------------------HOME
Auburn 61 _______________ -9.5 _____________________Florida St. 69
New Orleans 57 ___________ -11.5 ______________________ Troy 79
Florida International 58 _____ -16.5 ______________________ Denver 74
UC Davis 59 ______________ -15 ______________________ Fresno St. 73
Elon 51 __________________ -20 _______________________ NC State 72
Weber St. 74 ______________ -13_______________________ UNLV 79
Eastern Washington 65 ______ -17 _______________________ Nevada 81