View Full Version : New Lines Up incl. Bisping/Wanderlei!
I jumped on a lot of these:
Martin Kampmann: 2u @ -170 and thinking about going bigger
Matt Serra: 1.75u @ -165
Keith Jardine: 1u @ +130
Jon Jones: 2u @ -200
What do you guys think?
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That Wandy line is a lot higher than I thought it would be
A bit of analysis:
Martin Kampmann: 2u @ -170
Thinking about going bigger on this one, but I need to do more research on Volkmann. From what I've seen though, I think Kampmann will be able to hold his own in the grappling department and will definitely be able to outclass Volkman on the feet. Frankly, after seeing Volkmann's performance against Thiago--as spirited as it was--I am surprised he is not more of an underdog. I guess Kampmann's loss to Daley knocked him down a peg or two but I think this works out for us. I know Volkmann is 9-1, but who has he fought? The only guy I've ever heard of he lost to. Not only that, but most of wins are by submission and Kampmann has never been submitted.
Matt Serra: 1.75u @ -165
You could probably say that this fight is against two guys who are both in the twilight of their careers, but in my opinion Serra has a lot more life in him than Trigg does. On the feet, it's probably pretty even. Trigg may be somewhat better technically, but Serra has more power and has a better chance of finishing it with one punch. On the ground, Serra has always had good defensive BJJ and I doubt Trigg will be able to LnP him the way Hughes did.
Keith Jardine: 1u @ +130
Jardine's the underdog here? For real? After getting crushed by Silva, I can see why bettors may lack confidence and I admit that my confidence has somewhat been shaken as well. But I'm not sure how much Bader's biggest strength--his wrestling--will help him here. Jardine is very good about getting back to his feet once taken down, so LnP from Bader is unlikely, though possible I suppose. Considering Jardine's weak chin, I think Bader's best chance is that big right hand of his. If he can't land it though, I think Jardine takes this fight and is definitely worth a play here.
Jon Jones: 2u @ -200
He's Jon Jones.
. . . thoughts?
That Wandy line is a lot higher than I thought it would be
I agree. Honestly, I was hoping he would be the dog.
I know this is going to piss zY off but as it is I dropped .5u on Bisping. For the record, I hope I lose this one, though.
Mr. IWS
12-18-2009, 08:00 PM
I just put my soul on Wandy.
I just put my soul on Wandy.
Does that translate into anything in financial terms?
Mr. IWS
12-18-2009, 09:03 PM
I just put my soul on Wandy.
Does that translate into anything in financial terms?
::lmao::
185 to win 100. I cant bet it now, but week of event Ill lock it in fo sho.
Oh yeah, that's right, you always bet locally.
Mr. IWS
12-18-2009, 09:20 PM
That Kos/Thiago line is kind of weird. I really think Kos will win, but there is some serious value in Thiago. I mean, he KO'd Kos already. I know it was kind of a flash Ko, but it was still a win for him. That guy is getting no repect in this one.
It's because of this. . .
http://www.fightlinker.com/why-paulo-thiago-sucks.mma
^^wow horrible "article".
Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.
^^wow horrible "article".
Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.
Maybe so, but there was one legit point the writer made:
"Some people have it right: a fight isn’t over if there’s a knock down. Someone got floored, big deal."
All too often I have seen a trigger-happy ref jump in just because someone got knocked down. And yeah, I know all the shit about how Kos's eyes rolled back into his head or whatever, but the fact of the matter is that he was conscious and recovering by the time Thiago rushed him and the ref stopped the fight early. I have almost no doubt--maybe 5% at most--that Kos would've recovered and won that fight if the ref hadn't jumped in when he did.
^^wow horrible "article".
Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.
Maybe so, but there was one legit point the writer made:
"Some people have it right: a fight isn’t over if there’s a knock down. Someone got floored, big deal."
All too often I have seen a trigger-happy ref jump in just because someone got knocked down. And yeah, I know all the shit about how Kos's eyes rolled back into his head or whatever, but the fact of the matter is that he was conscious and recovering by the time Thiago rushed him and the ref stopped the fight early. I have almost no doubt--maybe 5% at most--that Kos would've recovered and won that fight if the ref hadn't jumped in when he did.
Conscious and recovering ??? You got to be kidding SPX .Rewatch that fight .Kos was hit with a perfect undercut and a perfect hook to the side of the head either punch would have KO'd him. Thiago never "rushed" Kos after those punches because he knew the fight was over .He dropped his hands and WALKED to Kos waiting for the ref to step in which he did. Had thiago actually rushed Kos ala Dan Hederson in the Bisping fight he would have landed minimum 3 punches to his face because KOS hadnt even yet put his hands up when the ref stopped the fight because he was sitting there with his eyes rolled back in his head.
This was a great stoppage. Had Thiago rushed him and blasted him 5 more times and then the ref stop it people would have complained Kos took unnecessary punishent
^^wow horrible "article".
Kos at -500 makes zero and a half sense to me.
I agree 100%
Usually when someone gets KTFO they are a little timid when fighting a rematch because they dont want to get KO again
I think Kos wins but -500 is beyond stupid
Conscious and recovering ??? You got to be kidding SPX .Rewatch that fight .Kos was hit with a perfect undercut and a perfect hook to the side of the head either punch would have KO'd him. Thiago never "rushed" Kos after those punches because he knew the fight was over .He dropped his hands and WALKED to Kos waiting for the ref to step in which he did. Had thiago actually rushed Kos ala Dan Hederson in the Bisping fight he would have landed minimum 3 punches to his face because KOS hadnt even yet put his hands up when the ref stopped the fight because he was sitting there with his eyes rolled back in his head.
This was a great stoppage. Had Thiago rushed him and blasted him 5 more times and then the ref stop it people would have complained Kos took unnecessary punishent
We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. Very bad stoppage, in my opinion. Maybe it was one of those legendary "flash KOs" but the fact of the matter is that Kos immediately was back to a conscious state. He may have been dazed and maybe even have had to take a few shots before he recovered, but I fully believe that if the fight had gone on then he would've won. Consider the Nog/Herring fight. Plenty of refs would've stopped that shit after the head kick, but Nog recovered.
Mark my words: Kos will beat Thiago decisively. Am I confident enough to bet him at -500? No. I don't have the bankroll for that. I'd take him at -300 though and that's about as high as I go for most anyone except a select few like Fedor.
I too believe that the stoppage was awful, but that doesn't change the fact that Koscheck got his fucking shit pushed in by Thiago. That article hating on Thiago doesn't bother taking into account that he gameplanned all over Kos' ass. He watched tape and planned out his opening and capitalized on it.
Natural Born Thriller
12-19-2009, 07:54 PM
That Kos/Thiago line is kind of weird. I really think Kos will win, but there is some serious value in Thiago. I mean, he KO'd Kos already. I know it was kind of a flash Ko, but it was still a win for him. That guy is getting no repect in this one.
same with maynard/diaz. diaz tapped him on tuf.
same with maynard/diaz. diaz tapped him on tuf.
I've got 3u on Maynard. He's improved a lot since the show, while Diaz has looked kind of lackluster.
Hope you guys are paying attention!
Marquardt/Sonnen and Maia/Miller just went up.
I put 4u on Nate on 3u on Maia.
Mr. IWS
12-21-2009, 02:41 PM
I know Rothwell is sort of a journeyman, but what has Cro Cop done lately to be the favorite in that fight?
MMA_scientist
12-21-2009, 02:41 PM
I have stevenson, Maia, and Marquardt... all for 5u. I missed the opening lines and had to pay more. I got Stevenson @ -295, Maia @ -310, and Nate @-275
I think Diaz has a good shot against Maynard. Maynard has improved his striking, but he has not fought anyone that could really threaten him with subs. The only submission threat he has fought so far was Clementi... in that fight, Clementi was having some success compromising his base with the half guard. Maynard will probably win by keeping it standing, but Diaz has real value IMO. Maynard is still untested against the one style of fighter that he has lost to...
Mr. IWS
12-21-2009, 02:49 PM
I think Diaz has a good shot against Maynard.
My buddy who posts here, (Natural Born Thriller) loves Diaz in this fight.
MMA_scientist
12-21-2009, 02:52 PM
Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.
I honestly think Diaz is going to get owned in this fight. Maybe not owned owned--like, thoroughly embarassed--but I don't think he's really going to be able to mount much of an offense. I think that the Maynard that fought Diaz on TUF is a different fighter from the Maynard of today. I think that he's going to be able to use his strength and wrestling skills to control Diaz and will be able to power out of any sub attempts.
Reference Diaz/Guida and Diaz/Stevenson. I expect this fight to look KIND OF like those two.
MMA_scientist
12-21-2009, 04:08 PM
Guida has a lot more energy than Maynard, basically allowed him to just lean on him the entire time. Stevenson is a grappler, he is just better than Nate, at bjj and wrestling. Maynard is still pretty much a wrestler on the mat. Joe could survive or beat someone without being on top. Maynard, if and when he faces a better wrestler, he will lose.
That said, I don't think Diaz is that great, and Maynard should win. But I would not be surprised to see him get triangled or guillotined- those are Diaz's go to subs, and it is pretty tough to power out of either of them. I think Maynard will try to keep it standing, where he should have an advantage.
I know Rothwell is sort of a journeyman, but what has Cro Cop done lately to be the favorite in that fight?
Name is about it .
I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers
Name is about it .
I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers
I think Cro Cop might start to have value around -135.
Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.
I would say I meet you halfway here. There are fights where I think the guy has a better chance than the odds are giving him, but I really feel strongly that he simply will not win. I do not bet these. But there are plenty of fights where I don't really think a fighter is going to win his fight but has a resonable chance of doing so.
I've had some successes in this realm:
Pellegrino over Neer
Smith over Le
Sakara over Leites
Grove over Rosholt
Shogun over Machida (almost)
I almost never think the dog is going to win. A couple of exceptions are a few guys I got at very light underdog odds, like Dos Anjos over Emerson and Belcher over Goveia, both of whom ended up the favorites before it was over with.
The good thing about underdogs is that if you pick your shots then you can lose more than you win and still show a profit.
Name is about it .
I think Dana is giving Cro Cop a guy he can beat to get him a win under his belt ala couture-vera or couture-coleman.Its always good to keep a big name winning because it brings in more fans and pay per view numbers
I think Cro Cop might start to have value around -135.
I think he has vaule at -170 and will probably be on him in this fight
I almost never think the dog is going to win
You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight
I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time
You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight
I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time
Generally I feel that underdogs are underdogs for a reason.
If I bet a dog, it's because I think they CAN win . . . and even have a reasonable chance of doing so . . . but probably won't. That's just the math of the game. I mean, if you bet on a guy because the oddsmakers are only giving him a 30% chance and you think he has a 40% chance, you still have to accept that more times than not your guys is gonna lose. You're just hoping that THIS fight is going to be one of those 4 times in 10 instead of the other way around.
You cant think like that imo. Just because someone is the favorite doesnt mean they are going to win.I look for dogs to bet because I dont like laying big juice on a fight
I bet dogs when I think the fight is 50/50 or better.If I lose on a dog I lose 1 unit ,if I lose on most favorites I've lost 1.5 units or more most of the time
Generally I feel that underdogs are underdogs for a reason.
If I bet a dog, it's because I think they CAN win . . . and even have a reasonable chance of doing so . . . but probably won't. That's just the math of the game. I mean, if you bet on a guy because the oddsmakers are only giving him a 30% chance and you think he has a 40% chance, you still have to accept that more times than not your guys is gonna lose. You're just hoping that THIS fight is going to be one of those 4 times in 10 instead of the other way around.
Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.
Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.
I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.
For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.
Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.
I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.
For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.
Smith was a great bet by you ,I should have followed .I said we should take Smith or nothing but had no balls to actually make the bet
Oh I agree .I wont bet a dog unless I think its 50/50 or better .I have never bet a dog just because theres value in the line. Most dogs have value because more favorites cover than dogs in MMA and I think its built into the line to shady toward the favorite but I'm not betting one unless I think its a toss up if he'll win or not.
I think that if you only bet when you think it's 50/50 or the dog actually shouldn't be the dog, then you will probably lose out on some money over the long run. You have to be careful and pick your shots, but even when you bet but don't think your guy is going to win, as long as you bet where there's value and where you can see paths to victory for the undervalued dog, you will make money over the long run.
For instance, I really didn't think Smith was going to beat Le. I thought he Le was stand outside and pick him apart, which is exactly what he did for 2 3/4. But I also knew that Le had fought a bunch of fucking nobodies and that Smith has the power of God in his hands and I thought there was a greater than 23% chance that the oddsmakers were giving him for him to land that right hand and take the fight.
Good bet on Smith. I started screaming like a little girl and cackling like a hyena when he laid out Dung Le.
And yeah Smith has power, but it's not COMPLETELY face melting. Nick Diaz ate his best shots and growled at him. Then again Nick has one of the best beards in MMA.
BTW SPX, you might as well throw that flyer on Bisping in the trash.
Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.
::shake::
MMA_scientist
12-21-2009, 11:13 PM
Per my rules, I only bet on guys that I think WILL win the fight (not have a better chance than the odds dictate), but there is value in Diaz... and several other dogs in the coming months.
I would say I meet you halfway here. There are fights where I think the guy has a better chance than the odds are giving him, but I really feel strongly that he simply will not win. I do not bet these. But there are plenty of fights where I don't really think a fighter is going to win his fight but has a resonable chance of doing so.
I understand the value approach and agree money can be made this way. But for me it is a behavioral issue (ever listen to Dave Ramsey?). I know what happens to me when I lose several times in a row. I chase it. I raise my bets out of proportion to my bankroll. for lack of a better word, I go on tilt. I like to win. I like to build. I know this about myself so I try to match my strategy to minimize the damage I do with the human element. This is also the reason I ver go over -400, I am even considering lowering that to -350. I don't like the swings.
I like to pick favorites that have favorable matchups, making it unlikely that they will lose. I lose occasionally, though not very often honestly, and way less than the 1 out of 4 I would need to lose to break even. For this reason, maybe 1 out of 10 or 15 bets are underdogs.
But we all have our own quirks, and value is totally subjective. I can appreciate the approach though, but it is not how I bet (which is admittedly not for everyone).
Good bet on Smith. I started screaming like a little girl and cackling like a hyena when he laid out Dung Le.
I actually got out of my seat and started jumping up and down around my apartment and punching the air, going "Fuck yes! Fuck you, Cung Le!" I think it would due to a number of factors including the fact that I like Scott Smith and sometimes it's nice to see a hype trail get derailed. Also, I think it's just nice to call a fight right. Beyond the money, there's an ego factor involved in all of this.
Mr. IWS
12-22-2009, 08:37 AM
Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.
With a side order of Rape Choke. ::moneyeye::
BTW SPX, you might as well throw that flyer on Bisping in the trash.
Wandy by KTFO hate crime MURDER.
::shake::
I hope you're right. I'd be willing to pay .5u for Wandy to get a win.
Let's go ahead and add 1.15u on Ellenberger @ -115. Dude looked GREAT against Condit.
And 1.25u on Daley at -110. I did a lot of research on this fight last night and I think Daley will probably take this one.
Hazelett has one way to win this fight: Submission. I think Daley will have some issues with his reach, but once he adjusts he will soundly outstrike him on the feet. Daley also has good TD defense and, while I think that Hazelett is a great BJJ guy, I'm not sure that he'll have the wrestling skills to actually get the fight to the ground or keep it there, so LnP is probably out of the question. Daley is powerful as fuck and I think he will just be able to shake Hazelett off. We also know that Hazelett is capable of succumbing to a power shot (Koscheck).
My guess is that Daley (T)KOs him. He is the stronger, more experienced fighter. If not that, then he'll just outpoint him en route to a decision.
A sub is possible on Hazelett's part, but not to the extent the current line--which has Hazelett as the favorite--would grant.
I can't agree with you about Daley.
Obviously he has the better striking, but Hazelett is a big guy who has underrated striking himself. I don't know where you're seeing that Daley has good TDD, Jake Shields managed to get him down in both rounds and he has awful wrestling. Hazelett is so dynamic he can just pull guard as well and sweep or sub from there. Daley's ground game is nearly nonexistant. Shields passed his guard like it wasn't even there. McLovin can also win a decision even if he doesn't get the sub (which he should). Daley lost a decision to freakin Nick Thompson in the MFC earlier this year.
I like Hazelett big at even money.
And yes Zak, no extra charge for the rape choke. :D
Watch Daley VS Alessio or even Daley vs Thompson. Yes, they both got him down, but they had to work hard to do it. I have not seen every Hazelett fight out there, but I know that both with McCrory and Saraiva, his opponents WANTED to go down with him and, in fact, I think they both took him down. Even if you watch the Shield's fight Daley showed a good sprawl, especially in the second round. Please point me in the direction of a fight where I can see it, but I've never seen Hazelett rush in with a power takedown of the type that I think he'll need to use to get Daley down.
MMA is hard to call so I have no idea how this fight is going to go, but I'm thinking we'll see an ending similar to Hazelett/Kos.
A few more thoughts. . .
Obviously he has the better striking, but Hazelett is a big guy who has underrated striking himself.
He's a TALL guy, but I don't know about big. He's pretty thin and even fought at 155 not too terribly long ago.
Hazelett is so dynamic he can just pull guard as well and sweep or sub from there. Daley's ground game is nearly nonexistant. Shields passed his guard like it wasn't even there.
I think if Hazelett can get him down then he can win the fight. But he has to get him down. Do you remember that Kampmann tried to take Daley down and failed? And Kampmann is a good grappler who was able to take Condit down. If Daley is smart, he will stand and strike and violently resist and move away any time Hazelett gets close enough to go for a takedown.
All I'm saying is Hazelett doesn't need a takedown to go to the ground. Watch the Burkman fight. Dude is so dynamic.
Kampmann only tried to take Daley down after he had already eaten about 75 left hooks. Desperation shots are just that.
All I'm saying is Hazelett doesn't need a takedown to go to the ground. Watch the Burkman fight. Dude is so dynamic.
Haven't seen that fight. May have been one of the ones I couldn't find. I think I've seen a GIF of the finish. Crazy armbar, right?
Kampmann only tried to take Daley down after he had already eaten about 75 left hooks. Desperation shots are just that.
That's true. It would be interesting to see what would happen if that had been Kampmann's gameplan from the beginning.
MMA_scientist
12-22-2009, 02:21 PM
Hazelett does his best work from his back. I think he will have some trouble getting Daley down. He has not shown very good takedown skills as of yet. If it stays standing, Daley is going to blast him. Sheilds is not a terribel wrestler, I think he is one of the better wrestler/grapplers out there.
All that said, this fight is too close to call for me. Gun to my head, Hazelett by sub in the 3rd after Daley gasses out a bit.
All I'm saying is Hazelett doesn't need a takedown to go to the ground. Watch the Burkman fight. Dude is so dynamic.
Haven't seen that fight. May have been one of the ones I couldn't find. I think I've seen a GIF of the finish. Crazy armbar, right?
One of MMA's premier armbars to be precise.
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