12-25-09

Bob Balfe
Friday NFL Comp Play (23-12 66% on year!)

Titans -3 over Chargers
There is no doubt these are two of the hottest teams in football. San Diego is have a monster year passing the ball which the Titans cant seem to stop the pass. Tennessee is running the ball well behind Chris Johnson who is a good choice for MVP this year while the Chargers are not too good at stopping the run. Both teams have strengths in this game, but if you look at tonight's conditions of 10-20mph winds and temperatures below freezing then the team with the better running game becomes that more important. Both teams should move the ball, but you have to question the Chargers rhythm on offense. Center Nick Hardwick might return today, but if not the backup is out and they are going to have problems with timing. If your timing is off on the road it is hard to win. Lets go with the team that needs the win to stay in the playoffs on their home turf. Look for the Titans to control the clock with the run. Take Tennessee.

NFL LONG SHEET

Week 16

Friday, December 25

SAN DIEGO (11 - 3) at TENNESSEE (7 - 7) - 12/25/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Northcoast

MARQUEE OVER 47 San Diego/Tenn

DUNKEL

San Diego at Tennessee

The Chargers look to take advantage of a Tennessee team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games against teams with a winning record. San Diego is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

Game 101-102: San Diego at Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 139.610; Tennessee 138.831
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Under

JB Computer Picks
25 December 2009
7:30 EST Chargers +3

PointSpread Pros


Chargers +3

NFL SHORT SHEET

Week 16

Friday, 12/25/2009

SAN DIEGO at TENNESSEE, 7:30 PM ET NFL
SAN DIEGO: 13-3 ATS vs. AFC South
TENNESSEE: 8-1 Under after a win by 6 or less points





NFL LONG SHEET

Week 16

Friday, December 25

SAN DIEGO (11 - 3) at TENNESSEE (7 - 7) - 12/25/2009, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons







NFL ADDITIONAL

Week 16

Trend Report

Friday, December 25

7:30 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TENNESSEE
San Diego is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

Killer sports live


NBA KILLER
20 DIME -- UNDER 193 (CELTICS - MAGIC)
FIRST AND FOREMOST WE WANT TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO WISH EACH AND EVERYONE OF OUR PAST AND PRESENT CLIENTS A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS AND HAPPY HOLIDAY SEASON. WE UNDERSTAND THAT WITHOUT YOUR PATRONAGE THERE WOULD NOT BE A KILLER SPORTS LIVE AND FOR THAT WE APPRECIATE AND VALUE EACH AND EVERY ONE OF OUR CLIENTS. WE HOPE YOU HAVE FOUND OUR SPORTS CONSULTING SERVICE AS REWARDING IN 2009 AS WE HAVE. LETS TAKE THIS WONDERFUL YEAR, THE MOMENTUM, AND MOST IMPORTANTLY THESE PROFITS WE HAVE BULIT INTO 2010 AND DO IT EVEN BIGGER AND BETTER!

THIS IS THE STRONGEST PLAY ON THE CHRISTMAS CARD. THERE IS NO OTHER SERVICE IN THE COUNTRY THAT HAS AS STRONG OF A GRASP ON THE ORLANDO MAGIC THAN KILLER SPORTS LIVE. THE LAST 10 TIMES THESE TWO TEAMS HAVE BATTLED THEY HAVE PLAYED TO THE UNDER IN 8 OF THEM INCLUDING 5 STRAIGHT GAMES. WITH PAUL PIERCE OUT OF THIS GAME AFTER GETTING HIS KNEE DRAINED DUE TO A BACTERIAL INFECTION, THE BOSTON CELTICS HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO BUCKEL DOWN AND PLAY HARD NOSED DEFENSE IF THEY WANT TO KEEP THIS GAME CLOSE. WE SEE NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE CELTICS WILL NOT DO THIS. THESE ARE TWO OF THE TOP TEAMS IN THE EASTERN CONFERENCE AND BOTH WANT TO WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP THIS YEAR, AND BOTH KNOW IN ORDER TO DO THAT THEY MUST PLAY INTENSE DEFENSE. WITH STAN VAN GUNDY STRESSING THIS POINT REPEATEDLY NIGHT AFTER NIGHT TO HIS MAGIC SQUAD HE WILL HAVE HIS BOYS UP FOR THIS TASK. ORLANDO KNOWS THAT TO WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP THEY MUST PLAY 48 MINUTES OF DEFENSE. BOSTON KNOWS FIRST HAND (AFTER BEING KNOCKED OUT OF THE 2008 PLAYOFFS IN GAME 7 BY ORLANDO) THEY MUST SHUT DOWN THE 3 POINT BARRAGE THAT ORLANDO WILL THROW AT THEM. THEY WILL DO THIS. THIS HOWEVER WILL FORCE THEM TO NOT RUN DOUBLE TEAMS AT DWIGHT HOWARD AND THUS THEY WILL PUT HIM ON THE CHARITY STRIPE ALL DAY. THIS IS NOT A PROBLEM FOR THE C's AS THEY HAVE MANY ABLED BODIES IN PERKINS, WALLACE, GARNETT, AND SCALABRINE. AS WE ALL KNOW HOWARD IS HORRENDOUS AT THE FOUL LINE. ON TOP OF THIS VINCE CARTER HAS BEEN IN A TERRIBLE SHOOTING SLUMP THE PAST TWO WEEKS OFTEN GOING 6-16, 5-15, AND 1-14 IN THE LAST 3 GAMES TO NAME A FEW. THIS IS A REAL PROBLEM FOR A TEAM THAT HAS PEGGED CARTER AS THEIR GO TO GUY IN THE 4TH QUARTER. ON TOP OF THAT THEY ARE DEALING WITH JAMEER NELSON TRYING TO RE-ACCLIMATE HIMSELF INTO THE STARTING LINEUP AFTER A DEVISTATING MENISCUS TEAR (HIS SECOND KNEE INJURY IN THE LAST YEAR). THE BOTTOM LINE WITH ALL OF THESE VARIABLES THE MAGIC WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME, THEY WILL STRUGGLE, THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BATTLE TO COME OUT WITH THE WIN, AND AGAINST A VETERAN SAVVY TEAM LIKE BOSTON THEY WILL BE IN FOR A REAL DEFENSIVE UGLY SCRAP. IN ORDER TO OVERCOME THESE VARIABLES ORLANDO MUST PLAY DEFENSE, SOMETHING THEY WILL DO! THESE TWO TEAMS WILL STAY IN THE LOW 40%s FOR FIELD GOALS FOR THE GAME. WE SEE THIS AS A MID 80s game with BOSTON COVERING AND MOST LIKELY WINNING THIS GAME AS THEY HAVE REVENGE AFTER ORLANDO CAME TO BOSTON AND BEAT THEM OUTRIGHT 11/20 TO A TUNE OF 83-78. YOU MIGHT BE SAYING WELL PIERCE IS NOT GOING TO PLAY....DOESNT MATTER. YOU DONT HAVE TO LOOK MUCH FURTHER THAN A FEW DAYS AGO WHEN PORTLAND BEAT SAN ANTONIO AT SAN ANTONIO WITHOUT BRANDON ROY, ODEN, PRYZBILLA, WEBSTER, FERNANDEZ ETC AND ALSO WHEN DALLAS BEAT THE CAVS W/OUT NOWITZKI. WHEN STARS DONT PLAY TEAMS HAVE A STRANGE WAY OF COMING TOGETHER TO COME UP WITH A SHOCKING UPSET. WE SEE NO REASON BOSTON WILL NOT BE VERY GAME FOR THIS MATCHUP AND PLAY TO THE UNDER IN A GAME THAT COVERS EASILY. THIS GAME STAYS UNDER WITH A STRONG LEAN ON BOSTON PLUS THE POINTS. MERRY CHRISTMAS.

Vegas Hotsheet

Paid Picks - CFB - Ohio / Pitt / BC

Free Pick - Pitt/NC Over 44

Sports Advisors 12/25

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NFL

San Diego (11-3, 7-7 ATS) at Tennessee (7-7, 6-8 ATS)

Two of the NFL’s hottest teams – despite their disparate SU records – get together when the red-hot Chargers take on the surging Titans in a Christmas night clash at LP Field.

San Diego squeaked past Cincinnati 27-24 Sunday on a 52-yard Nate Kaeding field goal in the waning seconds, notching its ninth consecutive SU win (6-3 ATS), but falling short of covering as a 6½-point home chalk. QB Philip Rivers (3,891 passing yards, 25 TDs, 9 INTs) continues to lead the league’s fifth-best passing attack (268.9 ypg), and the Chargers are fourth in scoring (27.8 ppg), having put up at least 27 points six times during their current win streak.

Tennessee, which started the year 0-6 (1-5 ATS), has since bounced back with a 7-1 run (5-3 ATS) to actually put itself on the edge of the muddled AFC playoff picture. Last week, the Titans topped Miami 27-24 in overtime, getting another solid day from RB Chris Johnson (104 rushing yards, 55 receiving yards). Johnson has a league-leading 1,730 rushing yards (5.7 ypc, 11 TDs), and he’s logged 2,176 all-purpose yards with 13 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns. Behind Johnson, the Titans’ running game is second in the NFL at 162.6 ypg.

In addition to Johnson’s heroics, once-fragile QB Vince Young has settled down nicely. Since replacing Kerry Collins as starter following the six-game season-opening slide, Young has 10 TD passes and just four INTs. The Titans have scored 27 points or more five times since he entered the lineup, after scoring 17 or less in five of the first six games.

San Diego is on a 5-0 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, most recently winning 17-6 as a hefty 10½-point home favorite in the wild-card playoff round two years ago. Four weeks prior to that, in regular-season play, the Chargers rallied for a 23-17 overtime road victory as a 1½-point road underdog. During its five-game SU and ATS winning streak in this series, San Diego has cashed three times at home and twice at Tennessee.

The Chargers have now won 17 consecutive games in December (11-6 ATS), having not lost in the final month of the year since the 2005 season finale. Also, despite failing to get the cash against Cincinnati on Sunday, the Bolts remain on a handful of additional ATS upswings, including 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 on the highway, 20-6-3 as an underdog and 9-3 in December.

The Titans are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 starts as a home chalk of up to three points, but they are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-8 against winning teams, 3-7 as a favorite, 2-6 after a non-cover and 3-7 within the AFC.

The under is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last five roadies, but the Chargers are on “over” runs of 6-1-1 in December, 8-3-1 against AFC foes and 11-5 coming off a SU win. The over for Tennessee is on streaks of 19-9-1 in December and 9-4 with the Titans a home chalk, but the under is on rolls for Tennessee of 14-6-1 against winning teams and 21-10-1 following a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO


NBA

Boston (22-5, 12-15 ATS) at Orlando (22-7, 16-13 ATS)

The top two teams in the Eastern Conference square off in a nationally televised Christmas Day game inside Amway Arena in Orlando.

The Celtics, winners of 13 of their last 14 overall (7-7 ATS), come in with the conference’s top record but without the services of Paul Pierce, who is out for at least two weeks with a knee infection. Pierce had 16 fourth-quarter points in Tuesday’s 103-94 home win over Indiana, with the Celtics coming up short as 14½-point favorites. Boston has scored 103 points or more in five of its last six games, with the only exception coming in a 98-97 home loss to the Sixers on Dec. 18 as an 11½-point favorite.

The Magic have won three straight (2-1 ATS), including Wednesday’s 102-87 home victory over Houston, with Orlando cashing as an 8 ½-point chalk. The Magic are 12-2 at home (8-6 ATS) this season, averaging 105.4 ppg.

These played a thrilling seven-game playoff series in the Eastern Conference semifinals last season with Orlando winning Game 7 in Boston 101-82 as a 2½-point underdog. Back in November, the Magic went back to Boston and grabbed an 83-73 victory as six-point ‘dogs. Orlando has won and cashed in three straight against the Celtics and is 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in the last 10 clashes.

Boston is on pointspread surges of 5-2 on the road,47-19-1 as a road ‘dog and 6-1 on the road against a team with a winning home record, but the Celtics are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 1-6-1 after getting two days off, 3-7 after a non-cover and 1-4 against Eastern Conference teams. Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four after a spread-cover and 7-19 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite of less than five points, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 15-3 against Atlantic Division teams, 8-3 after getting a day off and 5-2 on Fridays.

The Celtics have gone “over” the posted number in five of seven after a non-cover, eight of 11 Friday games and 16 of 22 after getting two days off, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-0 against teams with a winning record, 8-2 against Southeast Division teams and 3-1-1 against the Eastern Conference. The Magic have stayed below the total in five of seven overall and five straight against teams with a winning record, but they are on “over” runs of 10-4 at home, 8-3 after a straight-up win and 6-1 after a spread-cover.

Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six matchups in Orlando.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO


Cleveland (22-8, 15-15 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (23-4, 12-15 ATS)

The annual Christmas Day marquee matchup has LeBron James and the Cavaliers making the trek to the Hollywood to face Kobe Bryant and the Lakers for national television inside Staples Center.

Cleveland is wrapping up a four-game West Coast road trip today (2-1 SU and ATS) and is coming off Wednesdays 117-104 overtime win in Sacramento, cashing as six-point favorites. The Cavs shut out Kings 13-0 in overtime, getting three straight 3-pointers from center Zydrunas Ilgauskas in overtime to pull away for its seventh win in its last eight games (4-4 ATS). Cleveland is 11-6 SU and ATS on the highway this season.

Los Angeles won its fifth in a row (2-3 ATS) on Tuesday, topping Oklahoma City 111-108 but coming up well short as a 10-point home favorite. Bryant had 40 points and eight rebounds against the Thunder to prepare for his matchup with the Cavs. The Lakers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, but they are an impressive 16-2 at home this season (8-8 ATS). Also, in addition to winning five in a row, they’re on a 16-1 SU roll.

Los Angeles swept the season series from the Cavaliers last year, getting a 105-88 home win as a five-point favorite and then going to Cleveland in February and scoring a 101-91 road victory as a five-point ‘dog. Prior to last year, the Cavaliers had won five straight (4-1 ATS) over the Lakers. The underdog has gotten the cash in four of the last five series clashes.

Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after getting one day off, but the Cavs are on positive ATS streaks of 4-1 on the road, 17-8 on Fridays and 8-3 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Lakers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Friday games, but they’re on positive pointspread runs of 7-3 against Central Division teams and 5-2 at home against teams with a winning home record.

The Cavaliers are on several “under” streaks, including 44-19 after a spread-cover, 5-1-1 on Fridays and 4-0 against winning teams, but they’re also on “over” runs of 3-1-1 on the road, 6-2 as ‘dogs and 3-1-1 against Western Conference teams. Los Angeles is on a plethora of “under” runs, including 7-2 overall, 16-7-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 at home against teams with a winning road record and 23-9 after getting two days off. In this budding rivalry, the “under” is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Denver (20-9, 15-14 ATS) at Portland (19-12, 16-14-1 ATS)

The Trail Blazers return home after a four-game road trip and welcome the Nuggets to the Rose Garden in Portland.

Denver snapped a two-game losing streak on Wednesday with a 124-104 beating of the first-place Hawks, easily cashing as a 3½-point home chalk. The Nuggets had failed to cash in six of the its seven games (3-4 SU) and had only reached triple digits in three of those seven, losing each time they were held in double figures.

After losing in Orlando to open the road trip, Portland rattled off three straight wins (SU and ATS), including Wednesday’s 98-94 upset of the Spurs as a 12-point underdog. Second-year guard Jerryd Bayless led the upset with 31 points and seven assists in his first-career start, filling in for injured All-Star Brandon Roy, who is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest.

The home team won and covered in all four matchups between these two last season, but Denver went to Portland in the season-opener this year and got a 97-94 win, cashing as a 7½-point underdog. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in the last seven series clashes and 25-10-1 in the last 36 meetings overall, including 12-5-1 in their last 18 trips to Portland.

Denver is on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 0-4 on the road, 1-5 on Fridays and 1-4 against Western Conference teams, but the Nuggets are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 after a spread-cover and 6-2 in their last eight against winning teams. The Blazers are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six at home, but otherwise on positive pointspread surges of 4-1-1 overall, 8-2 against Northwest Division teams, 9-2 on Fridays and 3-0-1 against Western Conference teams.

It’s been nothing but “unders” for the Nuggets lately, including 19-9 on the road, 5-1 against the Western Conference, 6-2 after a straight-up win, 4-1 after getting a day off and 5-0 against teams with winning records. Portland has stayed “under” the posted number in 15 of 22 against the Western Conference, 15 of 21 against Northwest Division teams and five straight against teams with winning records. Finally, the last five clashes in this rivalry have stayed low, as have five of the last six meetings in Oregon.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Double Dragon Nfl

Chargers +3

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

12/25/09 (101)SANDIEGO at (102)TENNESSEE

Which team is playing the best football right now in the NFL? To me, there are just a few teams in consideration: San Diego, Philadelphia, or Indianapolis. One of these teams is an underdog this week, the Chargers, to a 7-7 Tennessee team. Sure the Titans are playing better football and have rallied since their 0-6 start, but this looks like one of those cases where the must-win team may be in over its head and oddsmakers are putting too much stock into the playoff scenarios. If you read this week’s feature NFL piece, you’ll see I reference something called Theoretical Line Value, which takes the teams’ points per game scored and allowed and creates a line based upon it, with 3.5 points built-in for home-field advantage. In this case, San Diego should be favored by a point. The Chargers are rolling in all facets of the game and have beaten Tennessee five straight times. Look for No. 6 here.

Play: San Diego +3

12/25/2009
(501) MIAMI at (502) NEW YORK
If I’ve learned anything about the NBA and its high-profile national TV games, it’s to take the team with the star player in any game be- tween a club with one against another without a marquee player. Didn’t former ref Tim Donaghy say something like this a few weeks ago on “60 Minutes”? As much as New York has improved lately, I simply can’t overlook the presence of Dwyane Wade here. He is ca- pable of taking over this game, and figures to be motivated to do so in this holiday setting. The StatFox Game Estimator projects a 98-98 tie in this one, and I think that could be too low of a count for the Heat considering the Knicks allow opponents to score 105.8 PPG and shoot 50 percent from the floor at the Garden. Miami has a big defensive edge. Look for a small upset.

Play: Miami +2.5

(503) BOSTON at (504) ORLANDO
Orlando seems to be going through the motions lately, and I suspect there is still some internal strife regarding the offseason addition of Vince Carter. Despite their record (20-7 at press time), you can just see that something is amiss with the Magic, and it doesn’t take anything more than looking how far center Dwight Howard’s numbers have tumbled with Carter in the lineup. They were better when Howard was the focus. In any case, they face a tough Christ- mas matchup against the league’s best road team, the Celtics, who will be backed by a significant StatFox System: Play On—All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (BOSTON)—excellent shooting team (>=47.5 percent) against an average defensive team (43.5-45.5 per- cent). (101-58 since 1996.) (63.5 percent, +37.2 units. Rating = 2*). Getting back to Carter, when were the Magic ever an “average defensive team” prior to his arrival? Point made. Celtics get revenge for the Orlando win in Boston last month.

Play: Boston +2.5

(509) DENVER at (510) PORTLAND
Now that I’ve picked two road upsets for Friday’s Christmas NBA ac- tion, I need a solid home team to back, and while the Lakers were close, I have to think that the host with the best chance of getting it done is Portland, which figures to be a small favorite. Can you think of any scheduling situation less comfortable than traveling for the late-night game in Portland? Denver has to spend the whole holi- day away and then take on a team that does solid work at home: PORTLAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in home games versus good shooting teams—making >=46 percent of their shots over the last three seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 102.3, OPPONENT 96.5—(Rating = 1*). At the same time, Denver struggles on the road versus quality foes: Karl is 25-39 ATS (-17.9 Units) in road games versus good teams—outscoring their opponents by three- plus points/game as the coach of DENVER. The average score was DENVER 97.9, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 2*). The Blazers are get- ting back in stride. They win comfortably here.

Play: Portland -1.5

MARC LAWRENCE'S PLAYBOOK

TENNESSEE over San Diego by 1
Here we are, at the stage of the NFL season when teams that are on easy street start resting the regulars in preparation for the playoffs (that’s San Diego), while teams in the thick of a playoff race are forced to ‘pay the price’ by the linesmaker (that’s Tennessee). With no less than seven teams sitting on a 7-7 fence heading into Week Fifteen of the 2009 season (six in the AFC), it was imperative that we put our database to the test to find out how these dead-even .500 teams perform at this stage of the season. The answer: good as dogs, bad as favorites. That being the case, the ‘must-win’ Titans find themselves laying points into the red-hot Chargers, a situation we won’t be doing. To further complicate matters, Rocky Top finds itself in the last leg of a 3-game home stand, a role in which hosts are just 31-51 ATS since 1990 when playing off a pair of wins. Full deck or not, it would be no surprise to see the Chargers make it 18 straight wins in December while improving to 6-0 ATS in this series here tonight.

Boston over ORLANDO by 7
The Shamrocks spend Christmas Day in the Magic Kingdom looking to unwrap a double-revenge package laid on their doorstep by Orlando. That occurred when the Magic eliminated Boston in last year’s playoffs and then proceeded to upend the Celtics in Beantown last month. The gift-wrap in this is Boston’s 24-9 ATS mark in games when seeking same-season revenge, including 17-6 ATS as a dog. The Christmas bow comes with Orlando’s 8-17-1 ATS record at home off back-to-back home games when hosting an avenging foe. The Magic’s 0-4-1 ATS mark as chalk against .550 or greater opponents this season makes this a present too good to pass.

GOLD SHEET

NFL

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25 *TENNESSEE 26 - San Diego 19—Normally, we wouldn’t be too interested
in bucking a team that has won 17 straight games in December, as has San Diego. But the dynamics are a little different for this Christmas treat in Music City, as the Bolts are locked into the AFC’s No. 2 playoff seed, and Norv Turner will be tempted to limit the minutes for his starters (although more of that usually occurs in Game 16). Meanwhile, Tennessee is still alive in the AFC wildcard fight, and the Titans are 7-1 SU themselves (with the only loss vs. unbeaten Indy) since Vince Young (3 TDP vs. last week) took over at QB. Chris Johnson (1730 YR) has nine straight 100-yard games! TV—NFL NETWORK

NBA

Day Games
Miami 106 - NEW YORK 101—09-MIA -5 115-93 (207); 08-NY -2' 120-115
(208), MIA -6 120-115 (214), MIA -6' 122-105 (212) CABLE TV—ESPN

***Boston 104 - ORLANDO 92—Orlando has won 10 of 12 home games SU, but Magic lost at Amway to Cleveland and Miami, and only 2 of the 10 wins have come against teams with a winning record. Boston owns the best road mark in the NBA and has been at its best when challenged this season, covering all 5 chances when the Celtics were a dog or favorites of less than 6 points. Celtics will remember losing at home in first meeting against Orlando this season, when the Boston bench made just 8 of 31 shots. Look for Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce & Ray Allen to avenge that defeat. 09-Orl +6 83-78 (191); 08- BOS -8' 107-88 (189), Bos +5 90-80 (192), Orl +3 86-79 (197), ORL -3' 84-82 (189), Orl +1' 95-90 (188), BOS -3' 112-94 (189), ORL -4' 117-96 (189), Bos +4' 95-94 (194), BOS -2' 92-88 (192), ORL -7 83-75 (190), Orl +2' 101-82 (186) TV—ABC

LA LAKERS 108 - Cleveland 93—This will be cheapest price thus far on L.A. at Staples (Lakers 15-2 SU 1st 17). 08-LA -5 105-88 (203), La +5 101-91 (205) TV—ABC

PHOENIX 117 - LA Clippers 107—09-Pho -2' 109-107 (217); 08-PHO -12' 106- 98 (199), Ph -9 109-103 (202), PH -8' 140-100 (223), Ph -8 142-119 (227) — ESPN

Night Game
Denver 99 - PORTLAND 98—09-Den +7' 97-94 (200); 08-DEN -2' 97-89 (200),
PORT -8 101-92 (197), DEN -7 106-90 (200), PORT -7 104-76 (198) TV—ESPN

CTO

*L.A. LAKERS over Cleveland (NBA)...Prime time exposure seems to bring out the best in Kobe Bryant and the Lakers, and ABC has been touting this Christmas Day game for weeks. Last season the LeBron-vs.-Kobe matchup was a wash, but Lakers Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom tipped the scales by combining for 26 rebounds per game in a pair of double-digit L.A. wins. *L.A. LAKERS 109 - Cleveland 92 RATING - 10

Kelso BB

5 units Magic
4 units Lakers
3 units Heat

THE SPORTS REPORTER


*TENNESSEE over SAN DIEGO by 3
Both sides left it on the field Sunday in three-point victories accomplished on the final play. But
the Chargers’ win against Cincinnati clinched the AFC West, and now they fly eastward off a
short week and that big win. The Chargers have now won 17 straight games in December and
nine straight games overall, but at 11-3 SU, they haven’t sewn up a first-round bye yet. They
could lose out to currently 9-5 SU New England for that right (and the San Diego ownership
probably wouldn’t mind the Wild Card revenue). Although there is the bye for San Diego to play
for, rallying around a bye rings kind of hollow when the opponent is home, has won seven of
its last eight, and at 7-7 SU is battling for a Wild Card berth along with 8-6 SU Denver and
Baltimore, and five other 7-7 SU AFC teams. The Titans are in poor position with the tiebreakers,
but a win here at least puts pressure to win on all those other contending teams come
Sunday. Off a short week, give the nod to the side with the physical approach and sturdier
offensive line, a QB who can make plays with his legs, and a running game to stay on the field
and make Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers a fidgety observer on the sidelines. San Diego might be
down to its third-string center. TENNESSEE, 23-20.




FRIDAY, DECEMBER 25
*NEW YORK over MIAMI by 7
Last week, after a string of lackluster performances that dropped Miami to 11-10 after a 7-2
SU & 6-3 ATS start to the season, Pat Riley publicly called out Dwyane Wade for playing “inefficient
basketball.” Regardless of the front office’s motivational tactics, these Heat lack the
team talent to sustain a high winning percentage – especially with Wade dinged up by numerous
minor injuries. NEW YORK 104-97



*ORLANDO over BOSTON by 3
The Magic have been one of the few teams to experience regular success against the Celtics,
going 6-3 SU over their last nine meetings – but that record has been accompanied by a
mediocre 4-5 ATS record. The Celtics will come out motivated for this game, having dropped
a game to Orlando at home earlier in the season and playing the Christmas day game – expect
a closely contested game decided by a bucket or two. ORLANDO 97-94



BEST BET
*L.A. LAKERS over CLEVELAND by 15
Fourth and final game of Cleveland’s West Coast road trip and they have spent most of the
month on the road while playing a healthy schedule of games. This will be third week in
a row they’ve played four games, traversing the majority of the country in the process. In
contrast, the Lakers have been hanging out in Los Angeles for most of the month, dominating
a cake slate of opponents and having two full days to prepare for this game. Even
without the peripheral advantages enjoyed by the Lakers, they would probably dominate
the Cavaliers – that’s how good this year’s Lakers team is – but with the benefits of
schedule and preparation, look for Kobe and his teammates to have their way with
Cleveland for the whole country to see. L.A. LAKERS 118-103



RECOMMENDED
*PHOENIX over L.A. CLIPPERS by 18

It’s been a long road trip for the Clippers, who have played well after a poor start to the
season. However, the last game of the road trip is always the most dangerous – especially
on the heels of back-to-backs in New York and Philly, then San Antonio and Houston. This
is one ragged Clippers squad that is ready to be home! Phoenix has been playing a pretty
easy schedule after a difficult road-heavy start to the season, and their performance
should bump again after lagging a bit these past three weeks. Rumor has it that there’s
something in the water in Phoenix, one more reason why the Suns training staff is able to
keep their players so healthy despite expectations. PHOENIX 116-102



DENVER over *PORTLAND by 3
The Trail Blazers are struggling to find their identity after a crush of injuries wreaked havoc on
their rotation and style of play. The loss of Greg Oden should theoretically open up scoring
opportunities for LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy, but the addition of Andre Miller has created
more issues than solutions in the backcourt. For a point guard, Miller certainly seems
cause more angst among his teammates than you’d expect. Look for the veteran Nuggets to
take advantage tonight against a Blazers team that will be tempted to run against Denver’s
style of play, before ultimately falling short. DENVER 108-105

WINNING POINTS


*Tennessee over San Diego by 1 (Friday)
Two of the hottest teams go at it in this Christmas Day matchup.The Titans
are 7-1 since Vince Young took over.The Chargers can trump that.They’ve
won nine in a row. San Diego has been at its best during December going
17-0, including a 12-0 December mark in the Norv Turner era.The Chargers
have covered nine of their past 12 December matchups. San Diego also is
9-2 ATS when facing AFC South Division squads. Chris Johnson is averaging
a mind-boggling 140 yards rushing per game during his last nine games.
Tennessee, however, has failed to cover eight of the last nine times when
meeting a team with a winning mark.TENNESSEE 24-23.




Friday, December 25
*New York over Miami by 3
After opening the season winning seven of its first nine, the Heat have gone just 6-9
through Dec. 19. Miami’s defense has fallen apart giving up at least 100 points in six
of their past eight games through Dec. 19. The Knicks have covered five of their last
seven through Dec. 19, while ranking among the top eight teams in scoring. NEW
YORK 106-103.



*Orlando over Boston by 2
The veteran Celtics own the best road record in the NBA by far. Boston also has had
two full days of rest and preparation. However, Orlando has covered 15 of its last 18
games versus Atlantic Division foes and is getting another monster year from Dwight
Howard in the middle. ORLANDO 97-95.



***BEST BET
*Los Angeles Lakers over Cleveland by 15

The Lakers have too many scoring options for the Cavaliers with Kobe Bryant, Pau
Gasol, Ron Artest, Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum. Idle since Tuesday, the Lakers
will be pointing to this nationally televised Christmas Day matchup. This marks
Cleveland’s fourth road game in six days. The Cavaliers’ focus could be distracted, too,
with Shaquille O’Neal returning to Los Angeles. The big guy is sure to be weary following
the road trip. LA LAKERS 107-92.



*Phoenix over Los Angeles Clippers by 14
Death, taxes and Phoenix scoring 100 points at home are the only certainties these
days. The Suns have topped the century mark in their past 36 home contests through
Dec. 20. After just nipping the Clippers by two in their last meeting back in late
October, the Suns shouldn’t be overlooking Los Angeles. The Clippers hadn’t reached
triple-digits in nine of their past 12 games through Dec. 20. PHOENIX 112-98.



Denver over *Portland by 3
Injuries have wreaked havoc with Nate McMillan’s rotation. The Trail Blazers are without
Greg Oden, Nicolas Batum, Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez. Portland hasn’t
been getting consistent production from its point guards, Andre Miller and Steve
Blake. DENVER 100-97

LOGICAL APPROCH

TENNESSEE - 3 over San Diego
San Diego/Tennessee OVER 47

ATS LOCK CLUB
3* Tennessee Titans

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
5-0 last 5 picks.

*200 San Diego Chargers +3 (NFL)

*200 New York Knicks -2 (NBA)

Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends
6-4 last 4 days, 0-1 last night.

*200 College of Charleston +4 (CBB)

Axiumsports

Pick #9-NBA-Boston/Orlando UNDER 189 +104

Pick #10-NFL-1st Half-Tennessee -1.5 OVER San Diego +101

Pick #11-Australia A League Soccer-Brisbane Roar +0.5 OVER Gold Coast United -1

Joey Torelli 12/25



NFL:
Titans -3

NBA:
Heat/Knicks Over 199

NCAAB:
UNLV -3.5

BANG THE BOOK

Friday December 25th: Chargers @ Titans

The Chargers and the Titans meet on Christmas in a game that will affect the playoff race. The Chargers all but locked up the #2 seed in the AFC and the Titans have to win out to get the wildcard. With Chris Johnson chasing 2,000 yards they have a lot to play for. Tennessee has won five straight at home and the Titans are an imposing 17-4 as favorites of three points or less at LP Field. The Chargers travel east and get beat on the road.


Play: Titans -3

Randall the Handle

Chargers @ Titans

Are we missing something here? The 11-3 Chargers are taking points to the 7-7 Titans? The team that has scored 389 while allowing 283 is receiving points from the team that has permitted 347 points against them while only scoring 320? We are being offered points with the squad that has won nine straight, are 17-0 in December games and have covered 9 of past 11 when playing AFC South teams? Some think the Chargers may rest players but not sure where that is coming from as Bolts need this one to secure #2 seed. A win provides three weeks of rest. TAKING: San Diego +3 RISKING: 2.2 units to win 2

Dave Blezow

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One & Only Lock 12-3 -Lost last week with the Texans not covering;

HO, HO, BOLTS: Blezow, 12-3 in his Locks (25-6-1 last 32), expects Philip Rivers and Chargers to be celebrating a victory over the Titans on Christmas night.


Chargers (+3)

Chargers (+3) over TITANS (Friday): How can the 11-3 Chargers be underdogs here? They have a short week and a long trip, off a last-seconds win over the Bengals, having clinched the AFC West thanks to Denver’s loss to Oakland. A trap line, sure, but let’s go for the better team, with points, and incentive (the No. 2 AFC seed and the bye).

Mighty Quinn

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Another loser last night in the bowls .1-5 so far

Boston Celtics

Chargers

4-11-1 last week in the Nfl
102-120-2 for the nfl year
118-138 in college football

almost 40 games under 500 in both college & pro's

POINTWISE

TENNESSEE 23 - San Diego 17 - (7:30) -- A pair of red hot teams off identical
27-24 wins (in OT, & in final 0:03). Nine straight wins for the Chargers, clinching
AFC West, as they've ridden Rivers' arm (he's 17-0 SU in Dec), & Jackson's legs
to this spot. But note just +1 pt SU in their last 4 non-division RGs. Seemingly
impossible Titan quest is nearing fruition, as they've come from 0-6 start to 7-7, &
just a game back in Wild Card chase, while averaging 29.5 ppg in that 8-game
stretch. Johnson: 9 straight 100-RY games, & Young off career-first 3-TD effort.
Extremely difficult bucking either team. Chargers have covered last 5 vs Titans,
& are 13-5 ATS in their road finale. But Titans have come too far to let it get away

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel
Tennessee/ regular

[Mr. IWS]

SuperSportsGroup

NCAAB

SMU v. Northeastern 2pm
PICK: SMU +3 1H (5*)
PICK: SMU +6.5 Game (7*)


St Mary CA v. Hawaii 7:30pm
PICK: St Mary CA -7.5 Game (8*)


USC v. UNLV 9:50pm
WE see this game either going in to OT or somewhere in the 65-60 final.
PICK: OVER 122.5 Game (9*) Best Bet of the day


NBA

Merry Christmas to all and enjoy the day with family and friends cause its what its all about. Lets try to make some Christmas cash too to pay off some of those bills!!


Miami v. NY 12pm
NY has been on a real roll lately playing the best basketball they have played in a while. Miami rolls in to town on Christmas and a televised event on ESPN. No matter what you can tell me, the Knicks dont deserve to be laying 2.5 to Miami here. I will take the more talented Wade and crew with the points in this one.
PICK: Miami +2.5 Game (9*) Best Bet of the day
PICK: OVER 197.5 Game (6*)


Boston v. Orlando 2:30pm
One team who has been a real thorn in the side of Boston has been Orlando. The come to the sunshine state as a 5 point underdog. Orlando has covered most of the times in the past meetings. The one sticking factor here however is the value prop. You have one of the best teams in the NBA who are 12-1 on the road as an underdog? We will have to take our chances on this one and take the Celtics getting the points.
PICK: Boston +5 Game (7*)
PICK: Boston +2.5 1H (4*)


Cleveland v. LA 5pm
Can you say NBA playoffs? This is a just a precursor to what we will see this year in the playoffs. Get ready for one of the best gifts you can get in the NBA on Christmas. LeBron v. Kobe on National TV on Christmas, it just makes our spine tingle. Anyway we would be all over the Cavs here getting the 5.5 but the real factor is the last leg of a 4 game road trip that leads us to jump on the Lakers. WE just think the Lakers will turn up the heat in LA for the visiting Cavs.
PICK: Lakers -5.5 Game (8*)
PICK: UNDER 194 Game (4*)

LA v. Phoenix 8pm
PICK: OVER 108.5 1H (7*)

[Mr. IWS]

Trey Scott of HandicappingTrends
6-4 last 4 days, 0-1 last night.

*200 College of Charleston +4 (CBB)

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW YORK –2 over Miami

The Heat has picked it up recently with three wins in four games and now sit two games over .500. They’ve also been decent on the road with a 5-4 record and anything above .500 on the road in the NBA has to be considered huge. Having said that, this is about as big as it’s been for the Knicks in close to a decade. The Christmas NBA games will be aired in 215 countries in 39 languages. The five games will also be shown on American Forces Networks to all military bases and ships around the globe and this one tips it off. The Knicks get a chance to show the world that they’re not the same team that has been an embarrassment to the city and league for years and it’s true, they’re not the same. The defense is getting better each game. They have some tremendous young talent in David Lee, Chris Duhon and Danilo Gallinari among others. They also have a very decent bench. They’ve gone 8-3 in December and Mike D’Antoni will most definitely have them jacked up, focused and ready to go and the joint should be rocking with playoff-like atmosphere. It’s just a great opportunity for the Knicks to put a stamp on its “turning the corner” phase of the rebuilding process and it says here they do just that. Play: New York –2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).


L.A. LAKERS –5½ over Cleveland

The Cav’s look good indeed but this isn’t the Kings, Grizzlies, Thunder, Pistons or Nets. This is the Lakers, the best in the business in a game that means something. Well, sort of. It means nothing in terms of standings but it definitely mans something to Phil Jackson, Kobe and the rest of the Lakers. You see, the Lakers don’t have a lot to get excited about these days. Every game is just another game in a long season but every game represents a step closer to May, when the real season begins. So, it’s not often the Lakers can get excited but with Shaq and LeBron in town and the whole world watching you know that Lakers will treat this one like the seventh game of a playoff series. The Lakers have a huge edge inside and should absolutely destroy the Cav’s in the paint. Yeah, LeBron can and likely will go off for 30 or more but so what. The Lakers are the superior team by a wide margin and Kobe just has to win on National TV or he won’t eat or sleep for a month. Anyway, Gasol and Bynum in the paint will ruin this invader. Ilgauskas and Shaq are big and both can score, especially Ilgauskas but as far as defending, they’re both about as mobile as a fire hydrant and the Lakers will exploit that all game. Play: L.A. Lakers –5½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass NFL 50 Tennessee
Steam 100 SD/Titans over

[Mr. IWS]

A Redd

40 dime SMU

5 dime Magic

5 dime Charger/Titans UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports
Todays Selections
Football
3 (***) San Diego +3
2 (**) San Diego +125

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers
SD/Tenn Over

[Mr. IWS]

executive
football
250% tennesse -3

bball
250% charleston +4'

[Mr. IWS]

Spartan - 12/25

2* Tenn Titans

[Mr. IWS]

Pure Lock
NCAA-B | Dec 25
Coll Charleston vs. Western Michigan
Coll Charleston
+4-105
Free CBB Play

[Mr. IWS]

EDDIE ROMAN

15,000 DIME AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

San Diego Chargers +3


5000 DIME COLLEGE HOOPS LOCK

UNLV Runnin' Rebels -3.5

[Mr. IWS]

O.C. Dooley

Lakers -5’ vs Cavaliers

The bottom line is that the Lakers finally come in at a slight line value due to the NBA scheduling two of its biggest starts (Kobe, LeBron) going up against each other. The Lakers are on an incredible 16-1 tear but against the spread (9-8) have just been a .500 investment due to constant “over pricing” which comes with their marquee defending NBA Champion price tag. Actually the line for today’s game has risen from an opening figure of 4 points, but in my mind is still a manageable price. Today the Lakers will attempt to stay UNDFEATED (10-0) against opposition from the Eastern Conference. Certainly Kobe Bryant and company have had enough rest as they have not taken the court since Tuesday. On the other hand Cleveland played at Sacramento on Wednesday and were extended into OVERTIME. It was not all that long ago when Cleveland actually owned the Lakers in this series winning 5 consecutive meetings, but it was Los Angeles that took both clashes last campaign. As mentioned earlier in this analysis the Lakers have actually been a poor investment for bettors due to constant high price tags. But my database research indicates that in the past two years the Lakers are actually a decent 20-9 ATS after failing to cover the spread 4 times in a 6-game span

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Titans -3

There is no doubt these are two of the hottest teams in football. San Diego is have a monster year passing the ball which the Titans cant seem to stop the pass. Tennessee is running the ball well behind Chris Johnson who is a good choice for MVP this year while the Chargers are not too good at stopping the run. Both teams have strengths in this game, but if you look at tonight's conditions of 10-20mph winds and temperatures below freezing then the team with the better running game becomes that more important. Both teams should move the ball, but you have to question the Chargers rhythm on offense. Center Nick Hardwick might return today, but if not the backup is out and they are going to have problems with timing. If your timing is off on the road it is hard to win. Lets go with the team that needs the win to stay in the playoffs on their home turf. Look for the Titans to control the clock with the run. Take Tennessee.

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers NBA

Celtics

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy

4 Unit Play. #513. Take Over 141 between College of Charleston and Western Michigan

[Mr. IWS]

The Booooj Sports Handicapping

NFL-
15 Units on San Diago (+3) over Tennessee


NBA-
25 Units on Miami (+2) over New York
15 Units on Phoenix (-9.5) over LA Clippers

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass

Steam 100 SD/Titans over

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Chargers/Titans UNDER 47

The Chargers haven't had too many more exciting wins lately than Sunday's. Not only did Nate Kaeding kick a 52-yard field goal with three seconds left for the margin of victory, but the Chargers clinched their fourth consecutive AFC West title.

However, San Diego has to hop on a plane on Thursday and play the Titans on a short week on X-mas day.

Suffice to say, the Chargers are doing everything they can to snag the No. 2 playoff seed in the AFC, and that means a committed effort in Nashville.

But, the Chargers still can't run the ball, plain and simple. LaDainian Tomlinson did average 3.7 yards a carry and did have a long of 13, but it's obvious the Chargers no longer look to their running game as a strength.

That said, Philip Rivers wasn't as sharp as he has been through most of this nine-game winning streak—he threw two picks Sunday; look for the Chargers to put an emphasis on protecting the ball in this game.

Keep in mind that San Diego has seen the total go "under" the posted number in two of three contests this year when playing the roll of underdog.

On the other side of the field: For the Titans, the game plan will be simple. Give the ball to Chris Johnson and get out of the way; the Chargers' defensive weak spot is stopping the running game.

The Titans were sharp on the defensive side as well, playing a diverse team that utilizes the "wild-cat" and an ever improving young QB; Chad Henne threw 349 yards against the Titans, but Tennessee picked him off three times to help atone for such a substantial yardage total.

Remember; Tennessee has seen the total go "under" the posted number in four of six contests this season when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Bottom line: Here is another powerful "under" trend that the Chargers exhibit; San Diego has seen the total go "under" the posted number in five of six games where the total is between 42 1/2 and 49 points and over the last two years its seen it go "under" the number in nine of eleven games under the same circumstances.

Both teams are coming off emotional victories. Both teams are playing on a short week. This game is big for both teams.

Expect the defenses to be the main story-line in this one as the offenses look to limit their mistakes; when you take into account all of the above factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!

*10* UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

Tony George

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -4

Cleveland struggles against teams with an inside post and large frontcourt, giving up 52 in the paint the other night to Sacramento.. That is the difference in this game and Ron Artest will contain James on defense. Better team in a traditional game they play in at home.

Play 1 Unit on LA.

[Mr. IWS]

Evan Altemus

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -5

The Cavaliers are being priced like they are one of the top two or three teams in the league, but I don’t agree with that assessment at all. Cleveland is a step below Boston, Los Angeles Lakers, Denver, and probably Orlando right now. Other sharp bettors have agreed as well, betting this line up from -4 to -5 almost immediately after being released. Los Angeles has shown several times this season that they are arguably the best team in the NBA, especially at home. Quality teams such as Boston, Dallas, and Houston have all beaten the Cavaliers this season. There is added value to this play because of the recent success that Cleveland has had recently, as well as on their current road trip. Look for the Lakers to get a dominant home win and point spread cover.

4 UNIT SELECTION.

[Mr. IWS]

GoodFella

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -5

Huge Marquee matchup for this ballgame on ABC Christmas Day. We have LeBron and his Cavs coming into Staples to take on Kobe and his Lakers. The Lakers come into this game having the last two days off- as they defeated the Thunder at home on Tuesday Night. So the Lakers have had two full days (being at home the whole time) to prepare for LeBron and his Cavs. Now for the Cavs, they are playing their 4th road game in 6 days and coming off a Overtime win at Sacramento on Wednesday night. This is clearly an advantage here for the Lakers, and they are the better team by quite a bit to begin with in my opinion. Another huge factor I see is the REBOUNDING edge I believe the Lakers will have in this matchup- as the Lakers size and length is a MAJOR edge here. The Lakers' frontline totally dominated the Cavs, 104-52, in points in the paint in the two games they faced each other last season- with the Lakers taking both games handily. Now with Artest on the team- this should even be more of an advantage for the Lakers. Yes the Cavs now have Shaq- but clearly his a SHELL of his former self- and I really dont see him having a huge impact in this game. The Lakers have such a huge edge vs anyone with that front-line they have and they are clearly the DEEPER team too. I really like this play to cash & I actually wouldn't be a bit surprised to see another double digit win from the Lakers in this spot guys. Lay the points with the Lakers guys.

[Mr. IWS]

Andre Gomes

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -5

This is the most anticipated game of the day but in my opinion the Lakers are clearly one step above the Cavaliers and they should not have any problem to beat the Cavs today.

First of all, the Cavaliers have a bad spot coming to this game as they will play the final game of their road trip and last Wednesday they had a tough game against the Kings that ended in overtime. Meanwhile the Lakers had one more day to rest and naturally we must not forget that they are playing at home.

However the biggest edge for the Lakers in this game is related with some matchups advantages that I’ll explain. The Lakers have the best defender in the league at the Small Forward position: Ron Artest. Lebron James will have to work hard on this matchup, sure that he can still make a huge game however Artest is a tough matchup and the Lakers have the weapons to slow down Lebron James. The Cavaliers this season have Shaquille O'Neal and they look better on the front however they are far from the level that Lakers currently have with Gasol, Bynum and Odom. Plus the Cavaliers don’t have any player capable of stop Kobe Bryant. Delonte West is too small and Anthony Parker isn’t capable of guard Kobe. Last season when he was in Toronto, Kobe scored 60 points while shooting 52.3% from the field against the Raptors in two contests.

Last season the Lakers swept the Cavs by winning both contests by double digits points and this season with Ron Artest I expect a similar outcome in this contest. Take the Lakers today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 LA Lakers (-5)

[Mr. IWS]

Dwayne Bryant

LOS ANGELES LAKERS -5

The Lakers have been off since Tuesday and I'm sure they're very much looking forward to this Christmas day matchup with LeBron and the Cavs. While the Lakers have had two days off to prepare, this will be Cleveland's fourth road game in six days. The Lakers won both meetings last season by double digits, including a 17-point win at Staples Center. The two double-digit wins are no fluke, as LA just has so many more scoring options than the Cavs. More scoring options plus more rest equals a solid victory for the home team. Lay the points with the Lakers.

[Mr. IWS]

vegas runner

triple-dime bet 503 BOS / 504 ORL OVER 191.0 Bodog
Analysis: *** NBA 3* "PRIME-TIME" GAME OF THE WEEK ***

[Mr. IWS]

vegas runner

double-dime bet 504 ORL -5.0 (-110) Bodog vs 503 BOS
Analysis: ** NBA 2* LATE STEA…M BET **

[Mr. IWS]

Craig davis

40 dimer tennessee football titans buy the 1/2 point

[Mr. IWS]

vegas runner
101 SDC -3.0 (-110) BetUS vs 102 TEN
Analysis:
** NFL "PRIME-TIME" 2* LATE STEAM **

If your book is using 3 (-110)...then go ahead and BUY the 1/2 POINT and take this up to +3.5....Which would really add some Value...That is what I am looking to do as well, VR



Bottom Line...VALUE...and ANY way that you look at it...the Oddsmakers/Bookmakers are forcing a HUGE PREMIUM on Tennessee...Because with the line where it is, they are almost telling us that on a Neutral Field...these 2 teams are EVEN...And nothing could be further from the truth...

And truth is...in the past, because I felt taking the Chargers was the "public" side...I may have Passed, or even liked the Titans...Which is actually where my mind went earlier in the week...But as I did my work, and gathered more information...it became obvious, that "square side or not"...the Chargers +3 is definitely the side with Value...

The books are making the bettors pay for this "mu‘st win" that Tennessee is in...And the "perception" is that the Chargers won't be motivated, and are on a short week...But Tennessee played on Sunday, and they actually played a little longer...needing Overtime to win...

Finally...I can assure you that the Wiseguys have sat this one out...So there is no "Smart Money" side at all...And this one comes down to which team offers the most betting value...Because my job as a professional sports bettor always comes down to trying to get my money in when I'm getting the best of it...Because if you can do that, then you will win more than you lose...Ultimately leaving you a Profit...

And in this spot...the CHARGERS +3 are definitely giving us the "Best of It"...So I will go ahead and take a position, on what may very well be the "public side"...Because we all know, that in today's sports betting market...the "public" has been able to hold their own at times...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

25 UnitsChargers (+3) over Titans
7:30 PM -- LP Field
Prediction: San Diego by 7-10
Starting Time: 7:30
TV: NFL Network

[Mr. IWS]

Black Widow

6* Widow Wiseguy Chargers/Titans AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on San Diego +3(-107 at 5dimes)

The Chargers have won 9 straight games, and for them to be catching points tonight against Tennessee is a complete gift on Christmas Day. Tennessee just lost two more key players on defense, losing LB's Keith Bulluck and David Thornton for the season in their 27-24 win over the Dolphins last week. The Titans gave up 349 passing yards to Chad Henne in the game, and Philip Rivers has to be licking his chops at the opportunity to face this banged-up Tennessee defense. The Titans are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Though the Titans are 7-1 in their last 8 games, they have done most of their damage against losing teams. The Chargers are 20-6-3 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog. San Diego is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Tennessee. The Chargers are 12-0 SU & 10-3 ATS in December under Norv Turner, and have won the L5 games between these teams, both SU & ATS. Take San Diego and the points as they continue to roll.

[Mr. IWS]

Demarco Tenn/SD Un 47.5

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Delaney
Friday ... 60-Dime SAN DIEGO CHARGERS ... Before I get into this analysis, let me let you know I want you to buy a half point in this game and take 3-1/2 points with the Bolts. It is important we play this underdog with the extra half point the oddsmakers are too cheap to give us. It's the better value when playing the three-point underdog on the highway.

Now, in looking at two of the hottest teams in the NFL, I have to side with the better overall football team.

San Diego comes in after squeaking past Cincinnati 27-24 last Sunday on a 52-yard Nate Kaeding field goal in the waning seconds. It was an emotional game for the Bengals, who were playing with heavy hearts for the late Chris Henry. Thus, I wasn't surprised the game the Bengals gave the Bolts ... aside from the fact they've been playing well all season.

With the victory, San Diego extended its win streak to nine games - six of which it has covered.

And the culprit in my opinion tonight will be Philip Rivers, who continues to lead the league’s fifth-best passing attack (268.9 yards per game), with his 3,891 passing yards and 25 touchdown strikes. Tonight he'll find it rather easy to pass against a porous pass defense that ranks 31st in the league.

Overall, the Titans' stop unit ranks 26th, and that won't cut it against a Chargers team that is fourth in scoring (27.8 points per game), and that has put up at least 27 points six times during their current nine-game win streak.

Most certainly, the Titans are not taking on the same caliber of team they've faced the past two weeks - the Rams and Dolphins.

The Chargers have won 17 straight December games - covering 11 of them - and haven't lost in the final month of the year since the 2005 season finale. The Bolts are also on additional ATS upticks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 with a suitcase in hand, 23-6 when catching points and 9-3 in December.

Conversely, the Titans come into this Christmas Day clash mired in ATS ruts of 1-8 against winning teams, 3-7 as the installed favorite, 2-6 off a non-cover and 3-7 in intraconference play.

The Chargers get their first-round bye with a win tonight, and I'm banking on them challenging for the outright win.

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco
Friday's Play
5 Dime - Tennessee Titans

In San Diego’s favor tonight are two overwhelming streaks: 17 consecutive straight-up wins in the month of December and an in-season winning streak of nine in a row. But the number that concerns me the most is the fact this is the Chargers’ third road game in four weeks. That’s a tough enough situation to overcome, but when you factor in the short week plus this game being played on Christmas night, I think this is the spot where the two big winning streaks come to an end for the Bolts.

Not denying San Diego any props, but you can’t overlook what Tennessee has done since Vince Young took over at quarterback: a 7-1 SU and ATS record. And the offense has perked up to the tune of 29.5 points per game with Young at the helm.

Young, of course, hasn’t been doing it all alone; Chris Johnson has reeled off nine straight 100+ yard games, raising his season total to 1730 with two games to play. He might be even more important than Young in this contest. If Johnson has a big game that means the Titans are in control of the game clock, leaving San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers less time to work his magic on the field.

Keep in mind San Diego is 21st in the league when it comes to stopping the run, allowing opposing backs to average 4.4 yards per carry.

While San Diego has the difficult task of being on the road once more, the Titans are spending the holidays at home with family and friends, preparing for their third straight home game in the process. That’s just another reason why I believe the travel catches up to San Diego, in addition to back-to-back physical big games with the Cowboys and Bengals, allowing Tennessee to post a surprisingly easy seven-point victory.


Strategy:

This line has been -3 all week long. You’ve got to buy the half-point down at -3 or even if the line moves up to -3 ½ or -4. And although I highly doubt it soars to 4 ½, you would buy down the hook in that case as well.