12-26-09

[GoBlue]

NCAAF DUNKEL INDEX

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26

Game 213-214: Ohio vs. Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 85.560; Marshall 76.217
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 9 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Ohio by 2 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-2 1/2); Over

Game 215-216: North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 95.053; Pittsburgh 99.941
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 5; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-2 1/2); Under

Game 217-218: Boston College vs. USC
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 94.265; USC 95.038
Dunkel Line: USC by 1; 46
Vegas Line: USC by 9; 44
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+9); Over

[GoBlue]

Lenny Del Genio's Bowl Trifecta of the Year:

1.Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 1:00 PM double-dime bet 213 Ohio -3.0 (-110) bodog vs 214 Marshall
Analysis:
Play on Ohio at 1:00 ET. Of all the 68 teams that quali~fied for a bowl game this year, Marshall has to rank among the worst of all of them. Not only did the 6-6 Thundering Herd stumble down the stretch, losing three of four, but a 52-21 loss in the season finale to UTEP cost HC Mark Snyder his job after five consecutive non-winning seasons, effectively leaving the program in flux. Interim HC Rick Minter will have little to prove here as Snyder's permanent successor, West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday, has already officially been named. Not only is the coaching staff in total disarray, but no Marshall player has ever appeared in a postseason game either. Meanwhile, Ohio will be looking for its first bowl win ever as well as its first 10-win season since 1968. The Bobcats qualified for the MAC Title game for the second time in four years this season, losing to heavily favored Central Michigan, but were surprisingly able to keep the game close despite essentially playing what was a de facto road game. The main reason was a defense that led the nation in turnover ratio, producing 36 takeaways. Coupled with the special teams, Ohio had a total of 10 non-offensive touchdowns this year, which is not an anomaly, but simply remarkable. QB Theo Scott, who threw for 2258 yards and 19 TD's during the regular season, should find it to be 'easy sledding' against a Marshall pass defense, which ranked 99th in the nation and allowed 517 yards in that season ending loss to UTEP. Do not expect a strong swelling of crowd support either for the Thundering Herd here as the AD reported that only 30% of the alloted tickets had been sold. Take Ohio.


2. Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 4:30 PM
double-dime bet 216 Pittsburgh -2.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 215 North Carolina
Analysis:
Play on Pittsburgh at 4:30 ET. You have to love bowl games named "Little Caesars" and "Meineke Car Care," don't you? Probably neither Pitt nor North Carolina are happy to be here for this mid-level affair as each had aspirations of playing in New Year's Day games. In particular, the Panthers were very close to upsetting unbeaten Cincinnati in the de facto Big East title game on December 5th, blowing a 31-10 second half lead and ended up losing 45-44 thanks to a botched extra point attempt. Still plenty of progress was made in Dave Wannstedt's fifth season at his alma mater as the team can achieve its first 10-win season since 1981. That was back in the Dan Marino days (was a junior). The same cannot be said for Butch Davis and North Carolina, however, who finished a disappointing fourth in the ACC Coastal Division and ended their regular season on a low note~ by losing to rival NC State for a third straight year. Even playing in Charlotte may be of no use as we've already seen regional advantages (UCF in St. Petersburg Bowl) not work out for other teams + the players probably wanted to take a road trip. The key to this game will be offense. UNC finished the year ranked 107th in total offense and 97th in pass efficiency. Losing three NFL draft choices from the WR corps will do that to you. Pitt's offense ranked 11th in the pass efficiency department behind the solid QB Bill Stull and freshman RB Dion Lewis more than filled the void left by LeSean McCoy's departure to the NFL, compiling 1,640 yards and 16 touchdowns. Take Pittsburgh.

3. Lenny Del Genio | CFB Side Sat, 12/26/09 - 8:00 PM
double-dime bet 218 Southern Cal -7.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 217 Boston College
Analysis:
Play on USC at 8:00 ET. We expect the anti-Pac 10 sentiment and specifically anti-Trojans sentiment to run wild here as we've already seen this number get bet down substantially. It has not been a good start to the Bowl season for the Pac 10 as both Oregon State and Cal lost outright to Mountain West foes BYU and Utah, and badly at that. The big story heading into this game was supposed to be how motivated Southern Cal could possibly be after appearing in the Rose Bowl for four consecutive seasons. However, that all changed when three Trojans, two of them starters, were ruled academi~cally ineligible and then starting tailback Joe McKnight did not make the trip with the team due to incomplete paperwork and circumstances surrounding the improper usage of a SUV that was registered to a local businessman. Through all of this, USC HC Pete Carroll has vowed that his charges will play this game "like it's the National Championship" and we are inclined to believe him. Simply put, even with all the distractions, the Trojans are too much for a Boston College team that averaged just 14 PPG away from home this year. The passing game is almost non-existent and is non-comparable to many of the Pac 10 offenses that shredded the USC defense during the regular season. In their two road games vs. bowl opponents, the Eagles managed a paltry 215 combined yards of offense and turned the ball over seven times. Remember that for all their struggles, the Trojans D allowed an average of just 20.4 PPG and that number actually went down a full point when playing outside of the Coliseum. Seven of 12 opponents were held to 16 points or less. This is a team that has gone 6-1 SU/ATS in its last seven bowl games under Carroll. Take USC.

[GoBlue]

NCAAF ADDITIONAL

Bowl Season

Trend Report

Saturday, December 26

1:00 PM
OHIO vs. MARSHALL
Ohio is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Marshall
Ohio is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Marshall
Marshall is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Marshall's last 10 games

4:30 PM
NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH
North Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games

8:00 PM
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Boston College is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston College's last 5 games
Southern Cal is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Southern Cal is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games

[GoBlue]

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP

1* Marshall Under 49.5
3* Pittsburgh
2* Boston College

[GoBlue]

Coastline sports

NBA
HORNETS +1
ATLANTA @ INDIANA OVER 203
PHOENIX @ GOLDEN STATE UNDER 234
NHL
PHILADELPHIA -125
CHICAGO -130


Cleveland Insider 12/26/09 11-6 L6 days

NBA
Houston -10
Phoenix -3
College Bowl
Boston College +7


Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends 6-1 in the last 7 plays

*300 Ohio -3 (NCAAF)
*200 Boston College +7 (NCAAF)


DOGDOUG SYSTEM PLAYS

Boston College +7

[GoBlue]

Vegas Hotsheet 12/26

Paid Picks - CFB - Ohio / Pitt / BC
Free Pick - Pitt/NC Over 44


Double Dragon 12/26

Now 4-0 in bowls / HYDRAS 1-0
BOSTON COLLEGE +7


Don Wallace Sports

Pittsburgh -2 over North Carolina

[GoBlue]

SPORTS ADVISORS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

LITTLE CAESARS PIZZA BOWL
(at Detroit)

Ohio (9-4 SU and ATS) vs. Marshall (6-6, 6-5 ATS)

Ohio, back in the postseason after a two-year hiatus, makes the short trek to Ford Field to take on the Thundering Herd, who reached a bowl game for the first time since 2004.

The Bobcats went on a 7-1 SU tear (6-2 ATS) to win the Mid-American Conference’s East Division, earning a date with Central Michigan in the Dec. 4 conference title game. In that meeting, also held in Detroit, the Bobcats lost 20-10 to halt a four-game winning streak, but they covered as a hefty 13½-point underdog to finish the regular season on ATS surges of 9-2 and 4-0. Ohio, led by former Nebraska coach Frank Solich is seeking its first 10-win season since 1968

Marshall stumbled to the finish line in Conference USA, losing three of its last four games SU and ATS, including a 52-21 beatdown as a two-point road pup against Texas-El Paso on Nov. 28 to cap the regular season. The Herd failed to cover in their last three games, following a 6-1 ATS stretch (4-3 SU). Marshall defensive coordinator Rick Minter will serve as the head coach in this contest, taking over for Mark Snyder, who was pressured to resign after the season-ending loss at UTEP.

While Marshall hasn’t gone bowling since 2004, the Bobcats were last in the postseason in 2006, when they fell in the GMAC Bowl to Southern Miss (Conference USA) 28-7 as a six-point underdog.

With Marshall being a former MAC member, these teams used to meet annually. The Thundering Herd won four of the last five meetings, most recently winning 16-13 in October 2005, but Ohio went 4-1 ATS, including cashing a 10-point home ‘dog in that 2004 clash. Going back further, Marshall has won eight of the last nine SU against Ohio, but has cashed just four times in that stretch.

The Bobcats averaged 25.4 points and 324.5 yards per game, with 204.8 ypg coming through the air on the arm of QB Theo Scott, who finished with 2,258 passing yards, 19 TDs and 10 INTs. Ohio’s defense gave up just 21.3 ppg and 354.2 ypg, but 150.9 rushing ypg.

The Thundering Herd averaged 21.8 points and 355.3 ypg (216.5 passing, 138.8 rushing), but they gave up more on both counts, allowing 24.9 points and 392.5 yards per outing. QB Brian Anderson paced Marshall’s offense, throwing for 2,561 yards, but his 14 TDs were offset by 13 INTs.

Along with their current 4-0 ATS run, the Bobcats are on pointspread upswings of 8-1-1 following a spread-cover and 7-2 outside the MAC. Marshall is 3-9 ATS in its last dozen non-conference tilts and 1-4 ATS in its last five against the MAC, but the Herd sport positive ATS streaks of 6-1 in December and 5-1 in bowl games.

Ohio is on “under� runs of 5-1 as a favorite and 9-4 in non-conference contests, and the under is on a bundle of tears for Marshall, including 8-2 overall, 6-1 with the Herd as an underdog, 4-1 in bowl games, 4-1 outside Conference USA, 7-2 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 10-4 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
(at Charlotte, N.C.)

North Carolina (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. (17) Pittsburgh (9-3, 7-4 ATS)

The Panthers, who narrowly missed out on winning the Big East championship and earning a BCS bowl bid, instead drop down to a second-tier contest when they head to Bank of America Stadium to face North Carolina, which ostensibly will be playing a home game.

Pittsburgh went on a six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) to surge into BCS contention, then lost its last two games by a total of four points (1-1 ATS). In fact, the Panthers’ three defeats were by a total of 11 points. In the season finale against Cincinnati on Dec. 5, with the Big East title and BCS berth on the line, the Panthers raced out to a 31-10 second-quarter lead, but they couldn’t hold off a furious Bearcats rally, losing 45-44 on a TD pass in the waning seconds. Still, Pitt cashed as a 1½-point home pup, ending a two-game ATS hiccup.

North Carolina finished the regular season on a 4-1 SU and ATS run, including outright wins from the underdog role at Virginia Tech, against Miami at home and at Boston College. However, the Tar Heels fell to in-state rival North Carolina State in the Nov. 28 finale 28-27 as a 5½-point road chalk, but they still reached the postseason for a second straight year, after a three-year bowl hiatus.

The Panthers were dealt a 3-0 loss as a one-point pup in a yawner of a Sun Bowl last year, and they’ve failed to cash in their last four postseason games. Meanwhile, this is the Tar Heels’ second straight trip to the Meineke Car Care Bowl, having lost to West Virginia last year 31-30 as a two-point underdog. UNC is 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven postseason appearances.

These teams met twice in three seasons from 1998-2000, but they haven’t gotten together since. North Carolina took both those matchups SU and ATS, including a 20-17 road victory getting seven points in November 2000. In fact, the Tar Heels have cashed in each of five all-time lined clashes between these schools.

Freshman RB Dion Lewis racked up 1,635 rushing yards and 12 TDs, averaging 5.5 ypc for a potent Pitt rushing attack that put up 184.6 ypg among its 399.9 total ypg. Wideout Jonathan Baldwin (54 catches, 1,080 yards, 20 ypc, 8 TDs) also had a big year. The Panthers averaged 33.2 ppg, while the defense gave up 20 points and 323.9 total yards per game and also led the nation in sacks. Pitt’s defense yielded more than 22 points just three times all year..

Carolina had one of the nation’s least productive offenses, averaging just 311.3 ypg (107th out of 120 teams) while putting up 24.3 ppg, scoring more than 21 points just five times against Division I-A competition. However, the Tar Heels countered the sluggish offense by fielding the sixth-best total defense (267.8 ypg), which surrendered just 16.9 ppg.

Pitt is in ATS ruts of 3-8 as a favorite of three points or less and 2-5 against ACC opposition. But they are also on a 4-0 ATS run following a SU loss and are on additional spread-covering streaks of 4-1 in December and 7-3 as a chalk.

The Tar Heels are on pointspread surges of 5-2 overall, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 after a non-cover, 12-3 catching three points or less and 5-2 outside the ACC.

The under has hit in six of Pitt’s last eight outings overall (5-1 in its last six as a favorite), but the over is 4-1 in the Panthers’ last five against the ACC and 5-1 in their last six as a chalk of three points or less. North Carolina is on “over� spurts of 5-2 overall, 5-1 in non-conference play, 7-2 with the Heels a ‘dog and 8-3 against Big East foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and OVER


EMERALD BOWL
(at San Francisco)

Boston College (8-4, 6-5 ATS) vs. Southern Cal (8-4, 3-9 ATS)

The Trojans, perennial BCS contenders who completely fell apart this season, try to end things on a high note when they head up the Pacific Coast to AT&T Park to face Boston College.

Southern Cal was dealt an early-season upset loss at Washington, then dropped three of its last five games (1-4 ATS), ending a seven-year run in which it either won or shared the Pac-10 title. Two of those final three losses were stunning blowouts – a 47-20 setback at Oregon as a three-point road chalk, followed two weeks later by a 55-21 home wipeout to Stanford as an 11½-point favorite. The Trojans finished the regular season Dec. 5 with a 21-17 loss to Arizona as a seven-point home choice.

Boston College finished the year on a 4-2 SU surge to get bowl-eligible, capped by a 19-17 win at Maryland on Nov. 28, though it fell short as a 4½-point road favorite. That marked the third straight ATS setback for the Eagles, following a 5-1 ATS run. BC’s offense was less than impressive over the final three games (2-1 SU), getting held to 19 points or less in all three and totaling just 46 points (15.3 ppg).

USC crushed Penn State 38-24 in last year’s Rose Bowl, covering as a 9½-point favorite in improving to 6-1 ATS in their last seven bowl games (3-0 SU and ATS last three). The Eagles are in a bowl game for the 11th consecutive year, going 9-1 SU (6-4 ATS) in the previous 10 postseason appearances. However, B.C. has failed to cash in its last three bowl outings (2-1 SU).

USC scored 26.7 points and averaged 385.1 yards per contest with a fairly balanced attack (211.7 ypg passing, 173.4 ypg rushing). Defensively, the Trojans surrendered 20.4 points and 342.8 yards per outing (211.8 passing, 131 rushing). However, after giving up a total of just 43 points in the first five games, USC got torched for 28.9 ppg over its final seven contests, yielding 27 points or more four times.

BC ranked just 97th in the nation in total offense 324.9 ypg, and that translated into 25.8 ppg. Sophomore RB Montel Harris was the offensive star, rushing for 1,357 yards (4.8 ypc) and 13 TDs. The Eagles’ defense surrendered just 19.4 ppg and 318.4 ypg.

These teams haven’t met in 21 years, after squaring off in a home-and-home series in 1987 and 1988. USC won both contests (1-1 ATS), including a 34-7 road blowout in 1988 as a 5½-point chalk.

The Trojans are on a handful of spread-covering slides, including 1-6 overall (all as a favorite), 0-4 in December, 1-5 against winning teams and 1-4 after a non-cover. However, they are on ATS rolls of 5-1 as a bowl chalk, 15-5 laying 3½ to 10 points in any game, 24-8 outside the Pac-10 and 13-5 following a SU loss.

The Eagles sport positive ATS streaks of 16-7 as a pup, 4-0 as a bowl ‘dog, 6-1 in non-conference action and 7-3 against winning teams. But Boston College is in the midst of ATS skids of 0-5 in December and 1-5 at neutral sites.

Southern Cal is on “under� tears of 24-11-1 overall, 28-13-1 as a favorite, 6-0 after a SU loss and 4-0 in December, and the under for Boston College is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-0 outside the ACC and 4-1 on neutral fields. However, the total has gone high in USC’s last five bowl games overall and its last four as a postseason chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTHERN CAL

[GoBlue]

THE GOLDSHEET: 3-3



Ohio 26 - Marshall 19–In this meeting of old MAC rivals, Ohio holds most of
the important edges. The Bobcat program has stabilized under HC Frank
Solich, making its second bowl appearance in his fifth season. By contrast,
Marshall is in a state of flux, as HC Mark Snyder resigned under pressure and
has been replaced by West Virginia assistant John “Doc� Holliday. The team
will be coached by Thundering Herd d.c. and ex-Cincinnati HC Rick Minter, who
very much wanted the head coaching job.
The Bobcats have a much more dynamic and productive QB in fifth-year sr.
QB Theo Scott, who had no interceptions, 6 TD passes and threw for 200 ypg
in his last 3 starts. Scott can also make plays with his legs. He has a trio of
explosive receivers in LaVon Brazill, Taylor Price and Terrence McRae, who
combined for 135 catches, 1958 yards and 19 TDs. Brazill returned three punts
for scores. RB Chris Garrett proved a solid rushing threat, averaging 4.7 ypc in
his career, and he’s also another receiving option (60 career catches).
Marshall is heavily reliant on the production of RB Darius Marshall, who ran
for 1054 yards and 11 TDs despite sitting out three games. He missed the last
two games after injuring his ankle, but should be recovered for this game. Jr.
QB Brian Anderson threw for 2561 YP, but has thrown nearly as many ints. (13)
as TDPs (14), and he isn’t a scrambler (negative YR in his 23 games for the
Herd). Marshall’s defense ranked 80th overall, and 99th against the pass.
Ohio is much healthier now than it was in the MAC championship game
against Central Michigan, when Scott, Garrett and Brazill were all less than
100%. Although CB Idris Lawrence was injured against CMU and won’t play,
the key secondary playmakers for the Bobcat defense are sr. S Patrick Tafua &
RS frosh S Gerald Moore (13th in the country with 6 ints.). True to Solich’s form
as a coach, the Bobcats took care of the ball this season, ranking 6th in turnover
margin (Marshall was 86th). Ohio is taking significantly more fans to Ford Field
than Marshall, and the Bobcats reportedly relish the chance to renew hostilities
vs. their old rival, which has failed to excel since jilting the MAC for C-USA five
years ago. (DNP...SR: Ohio 29-17-6)





*NORTH CAROLINA 26 - Pittsburgh 23—Those who had the misfortune of
tuning into Pitt’s ghastly 3-0 Sun Bowl loss to Oregon State last season will
hardly recognize the Panther offense this year. Late-blooming sr. QB Bill Stull
has fired 21 TD passes vs. only 8 interceptions, versatile former RB & LB sr.
Dorin Dickerson (10 TD catches) is excelling at TE, and athletic 6-5, 225 soph
WR Jonathan Baldwin (20 ypc & 8 TDs on 54 receptions) oozes pro potential.
Plus, there’s lightly-recruited true frosh RB Dion Lewis, who’s scored 17 TDs
and dashed for 1640 yards on the ground, the third-highest rushing total in the
nation this season!
While the balanced Pitt attack vs. the speedy North Carolina defense
allowing only 268 ypg (No. 6 in the country) and loaded with future NFL draft
picks is the marquee battle in this matchup, the game will likely hinge on how
well the Panther stop unit is able to hector Tar Heel QB T.J. Yates. Sure, it won’t
be easy to keep the potent Pitt pass rush (nation-leading 45 sacks) at bay. But
the banged-up Carolina OL did start to solidify down the stretch. And, with
“body punches� by 6-2, 245 Tar Heel sr. RB Ryan Houston
pounding some of the purpose out of the Panthers’
determined front 7, the confident jr. Yates, a three-year
starter, should find sufficient time to strike a few major aerial
blows. Add in wily HC Butch Davis’ track record in bowls (5-
0 vs. the spread) and as an underdog (covered 7 of the last 8
in that role), as well as a staunchly partisan Carolina crowd at
Charlotte, and the Tar Heels seem likely to erase the bitter
memory of their one-point loss to West Virginia on the same
field a year ago.
(DNP...SR: North Carolina 4-2)





*Southern Cal 20 - Boston College 17—Before the season began, we’re
not sure that even Nostradamus would have forecast SC lining up against BC
in bowl action. That’s because the Trojans, BCS regulars over the past seven
seasons, haven’t played in a pre-New Year’s bowl since Pete Carroll’s first
Trojan team lost to Utah in the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl, which curiously marked
SC’s 6th straight spread loss in non-New Year’s/BCS action.
Pointspread failures by the Trojans in past lower-echelon bowls, however, is
no indicator that history will repeat itself in San Francisco...but SC’s recent
shortcomings against the number (2-9 last 11 TY) could convince otherwise. It
is unlikely that Carroll has had the time to correct the schematic flaws,
particularly on the offensive side, that insiders believe brought the Trojans back
to the Pac-10 pack in 2009. Inconsistencies demonstrated by first-year playcaller
Jeremy Bates contributed to the alarming regression of true frosh QB
Matt Barkley, who tossed at least one pick in his last eight games as the “O�
sputtered down the stretch (only 20 ppg last 5). Meanwhile, defenders seemed
more concerned with delivering highlight-reel hits than their basic
responsibilities (ballyhooed S Taylor Mays a main culprit), allowing an un-
Carroll-like nearly 30 ppg the last half of the campaign.
Granted, the choppy Eagle attack dealt with its own ups-and-downs at QB
with 25-year-old frosh Dave Shinskie shaking off the rust after six years of minor
league baseball. Soph RB Montel Harris, however, ran with some flair down the
stretch (561 YR last 4), and HC Frank Spaziani’s stout rush “D� allowed a mere
2.9 ypc. Those and other factors indicate no-nonsense BC (8-1 SU its last 9
bowls!) can likely keep this one interesting.

[GoBlue]

GOLD SHEET EXTRA: 1-1


BOWL TECH PLAYS

NORTH CAROLINA
Over the past decade, one of the nation’s most successful bowl coaches
has been North Carolina’s Butch Davis, who leads his Tar Heels against
Pittsburgh in the Meineke Car Care Bowl at Charlotte December 26. Davis has
covered all five of his bowl pointspread decisions at Miami & Chapel Hill, and
please note his Tar Heels have covered 7 of their last 8 chances as an underdog.
North Carolina is also a featured recommendation in both the Power Underdog
and College Coach as Underdog (with Davis) systems vs. the Panthers.



BOSTON COLLEGE
One of the truths of the 2009 college season was never to trust Southern
Cal, which posted one of the nation’s worst spread marks as it failed to live up
to expectations. The Trojans, who dropped 9 of their last 11 vs. the number
this season, will be hard-pressed to turn things around when facing rugged
Boston College in the Emerald Bowl at San Francisco’s AT&T Park
December 26. Note, too, that SC coach Pete Carroll is also just 2-8 vs. the line
his last 10 chances as chalk away from the Coliseum, and historically the Trojans
have fared poorly in these “pre-New Year’s� bowls (although they haven’t
played in one of them since 2001), failing to cover in their last six. Meanwhile, the
Eagles had won eight straight bowl games prior to last year’s 16-14 loss to
Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl, and BC is 15-6 its last 21 as a dog. The Eagles
are also a preferred “7+� bowl dog (dogs getting 7 points or more are 61-32 vs.
the number this decade), as well as a preferred Power Underdog vs. SC.



TECHNICIAN'S CORNER

OHIO vs. MARSHALL (Little Caesars Bowl, December 26)...Frank
Solich and Rick Minter a combined 3-7 SU and vs. line in bowls. Solich,
however, is 10-4 vs. line last 14 on board since late LY. Ohio also covered its
last 4 TY and Bobcats covered 5 of last 6 away from Athens. Herd failed to
cover last 3 on board TY but did cover 4 of 7 away from home, improvement
on recent road marks (9-21 vs. line from ‘04-08). Note MAC 0-5 vs. line in
bowls LY, however. Tech edge-slight to Ohio, based on team trends.



NORTH CAROLINA vs. PITTSBURGH (Meineke Car Care Bowl,
December 26)...Note Butch Davis 5-0 vs. line in previous bowls at Miami and
UNC. Heels covered 4 of last 5 in ‘09 and were 3-1 as dog, Butch now 7-1 vs.
line his last 8 as dog. Tech edge-UNC, based on Butch bowl trends.




BOSTON COLLEGE VS. SOUTHERN CAL (Emerald, December
26)...Trojans offered poor value TY, just 2-9 vs. line last 11 on board TY. Pete
Carroll also just 2-8 vs. number last 10 as favorite away from home. Trojans
have failed to cover last 6 pre-New Year’s bowls dating back to 1985 Aloha
Bowl vs. Alabama (although Carroll hasn’t been involved in one of those since
2001 Las Vegas Bowl loss vs. Utah), but Carroll has covered last 3 and 6 of
last 7 bowls overall. Carroll just 27-34 vs. number last 61 on board since mid
‘05. BC had won 8 straight bowls prior to LY’s 16-14 loss vs. Vandy in Music
City. Eagles, however, have failed to cover last 3 bowls after covering
previous 6. Spaziani 2-2 vs. line as dog TY but BC 15-6 vs. spread last 21 in
role. Note that 7-13½-point bowl dogs are 58-28 vs. number this decade!
Tech edge-BC, based on team trends.

[GoBlue]

CKO : 1-0

10 OHIO over Marshall
Late Score Forecast:
OHIO 28 - Marshall 17

Ohio observers confident of a positive result behind intense 5th-year HC Frank Solich. Bobcats are much healthier than
they were in the MAC championship game, and they own the more versatile and explosive attack, led by multi-talented
QB Theo Scott and a trio of dangerous receivers. The Bobcats have a superor defense as well. Meanwhile, Marshall
team and staff must be feeling jilted, as interim HC Minter is just a temp for departed Mark Snyder, with incoming HC John
Holliday observing. (at Detroit, Michigan)

[GoBlue]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: 5-1


Marshall over Ohio U by 1
With the United States car industry struggling to fi ght its way out of
the toilet, the former Motor City Bowl decided to downplay Detroit’s
connection to automobile assembly lines and crawl into bed with a pizza
company instead. That decision parallels our own ‘perception versus
reality’ approach to this game. The majority of stats and information
available to sports fans portray Ohio University as owning all the edges
while ‘Ol’ Reliable’ (our database) points us toward the underdog
Herd. Ohio HC Frank Solich has built the Bobcats into one of the more
consistent programs in his league, leading the team to its second MAC
East title in the past four seasons. A win for the Bobbies here would not
only tie a school record by giving them 10 wins on the year, it would
also mark the fi rst postseason win in the program’s history. In addition,
Ohio is riding a current 8-2 ATS streak thanks largely to a defense that
forced a nation-leading 36 turnovers in 2009. By comparison, Marshall
appears to be in shambles: the 6-6 Herd looks more Blundering than
Thundering, losing four of their last fi ve games outright to close the
regular season. Worst of all, a 52-21 annihilation by UTEP in the Herd’s
fi nale was a sorrowful sendoff for Mark Snyder. And even though
the school moved quickly to hire West Virginia assistant John “Doc�
Holliday as his replacement, ‘interim coach’ Rick Minter will bear
the responsibility of leading the team here. Now for the good stuff.
Marshall owns a 6-2 SU and ATS record in bowl games and 6-6 bowlers
off a loss are a wallet-fi lling 12-3 ATS. MAC bowl participants aren’t
quite as fortunate, logging a dismal 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS mark recently
and the Bobcats have been tied to the whipping post in their series with
Marshall, going 1-7 SU in the last eight meetings. The return of twotime
1,000 yard rusher Darius Marshall (missed the last two games with
an ankle sprain) and several key offensive linemen that were slowed
by late-season injuries means the Herd will be fi red up and ready to
rumble with one of their oldest rivals (schools are just 90 miles apart).
The presence of Minter, a former head coach at Cincinnati, should
further energize a Marshall squad that faced seven bowl-eligible teams
in 2009. Both outfi ts sport similar green color schemes but only one will
head home with the real ‘green’ at the conclusion of this one. With the
Herd making its 8th bowl appearance since moving to the FBS in 1997,
we’ll Man-up with Marshall today.





N Carolina over Pittsburgh by 3
Both teams enter this game embarrassed, angry and ready to do some
serious hitting. North Carolina heads to Charlotte for what basically
amounts to a home game after dropping its third straight meeting with
hated rival NC State, a 28-27 loss that tarnished a four-game win streak
including wins over Miami Fla, Virginia Tech and Boston College. But
Pittsburgh’s season-ending losses were devastating as the Panthers played
their way right out of a BCS bowl bid. A 3-point loss at West Virginia in
the Backyard Brawl was followed by a 45-44 home loss to Cincinnati for
the Big East title, a game where the Bearcats roared back from a 21-point
defi cit and capitalized on a botched extra point by Pitt. Panthers coach
Dave Wannstedt tried to shake off the disappointment of being relegated
to a mid-tier bowl by stating, “Our program is excited to play another
football game� but building up his defl ated team will be a huge task. “It
almost feels like throwing the season away,� said senior DL Gus Mustakas
about the loss to Cincy. “You go so far and you come so close… it really
hurts, bad.� Fortunately for Pittsburgh, they own one of the nation’s
premier running backs in Dion Lewis, who parlayed a rare combination
of speed and power into 1,640 yards rushing, 3rd best in the country. But
Lewis will be tested by a rugged Tar Heel defense that allowed just 93
rush yards per game and picked off 19 passes on the season. Our trip to
the ATS archives yielded a surprisingly one-sided cache of information –
all pointing towards North Carolina. For openers, ACC bowlers are 13-3
ATS versus Big East opposition, including 5-0 ATS off a loss. ACC bowl
dogs are also 35-18-2 ATS, including 11-0 ATS the last 11 as dogs off a
loss, and 6-0 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points against the Big East. UNC
coach Butch Davis owns a solid 12-3 ATS record versus Big East foes off
a SU and ATS loss while Wannstedt counters with a paltry 14-17 SU and
12-19 ATS mark versus .666 or greater competition. Sure, the Panthers
will be out to make amends from last year’s mistake-fi lled 3-0 bowl loss to
Oregon State but with poor-traveling Pittsburgh expected to bring only
a token contingent of fans to this game, we’re not interested in laying
points in an obvious coaching mismatch. In what should be a close one
(Pitt’s three losses came by a total of just 11 points), Carolina prevails to
post its best SU record of the decade.




Usc over Boston College by 6
Every bowl season, we hear about matchups where one team is overjoyed
to be playing while its opponent feels just the opposite – and this game
looks to be 2009’s most obvious example of that phenomenon. Both
teams enter with identical 8-4 records but Boston College’s season has
been viewed as a success while Southern Cal fans can only see a year of
underachieving disappointment. And why not? After storming its way to
seven straight Pac-10 titles and BCS bowl appearances, the Trojans’ dynasty
crumbled and USC fell out of the AP Top 25 for the fi rst time in eight years.
Freshman QB Matt Barkley couldn’t get the job done, fi nishing with a TDINT
ratio of 13-to-12 compared to 34-to-10 the previous season under Mark
Sanchez. And the normally dominant defensive unit didn’t recover from
the loss of eight starters, often playing with a glaring lack of emotion and
intensity. BC started its own freshman QB in David Shinskie but the Eagles
rallied to reach their 11th consecutive bowl game after being picked to
fi nish near the bottom of the ACC by preseason pundits. A stop unit that
fi nished 18th in scoring defense and 23rd in overall defense should be able
to hold its own against a sputtering USC offense that failed to top the
21-point mark in four of its last fi ve games (three SU losses, including two
at the Coliseum). Much like the UNC-Pittsburgh game previously outlined,
the ACC representative has been a good bet to ring the register. ACC bowl
dogs are now 35-18-2 ATS overall and Boston College has won eight of its
last nine bowls outright. Even better, the Eagles are featured in this week’s
INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2 where they’re an amazing 41-4 SU against
non-conference foes – with no loss coming by more than four points! Don’t
be swayed by USC head coach Pete Carroll’s guarantee that “we’re going
to play this game like it’s the national championship game.� The hard truth
is the Trojans were 30-5 ‘In The Stats’ versus fellow bowlers the previous
fi ve years – but were only 3-4 ITS this season. Though the two schools have
already signed to play a two-game series in 2013-14, we like the hard-trying
visitors from Beantown to cash in today’s ‘preview’ bout.

[GoBlue]

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

OVERAL: 4-2


(213) OHIO vs. (214) MARSHALL
StatFox John says: With Mark Snyder having resigned from the
head coaching position at Marshall at the end of the 6-6 regular
season, this is no time to be backing the Thundering Herd in a bowl
game. I have to question whether they are even deserving of being
in a bowl game at all. Their StatFox Outplay Factor Rating is -3.4, a
full 6.6 points fewer than Ohio’s, and they only averaged 21.8
points per game this season on offense. One of the StatFox Game
Estimators also projects about a seven-point win for the Bobcats. I
look for Ohio to leave Ford Field this time around with a much happier
feeling.
Play: Ohio




Game Breakdown

Charlotte hosts its annual bowl game pitting the ACC vs. the Big East. For the second straight year, North Carolina plays in its home state,
taking on Pittsburgh. This is actually the third time since 2004 that the Tar Heels play in the Meineke Car Care Bowl, but they have lost the prior two. They were 8-
4 SU and 6-5 ATS in ’09 and seemed to play their best football at the end, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their final five contests. Pittsburgh looks to pick up the pieces
of shattered BCS dreams, as the Panthers were a minute away from an upset of Cincinnati and a trip to the Sugar Bowl two weeks ago. Overall, they were 9-3 but
lost their last two. They haven’t won a bowl game since ’03 and are 0-3 SU and ATS in that span.
StatFox Forecaster: PITTSBURGH 26, N CAROLINA 19


Game Breakdown

The 2009 season will be looked upon as a disappointment for USC, as the Trojans finished the season with four losses, their most since ‘01.
It will be even more devastating however, if they can’t beat Boston College in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco. Playing in this level of bowl game is unfamiliar
territory for USC, which has been part of the BCS party in each of the last seven years and was 6-1 SU and ATS in those bowl games. Still, the Trojans are a
heavy nine-point favorite against a Boston College team that shares the same 8-4 record in ’09, and is on a 19-6 ATS run when playing with rest. The Eagles lost
in the Music City Bowl game a year ago, 16-14, snapping an eight-game bowl win streak.
StatFox Forecaster: USC 30, BOSTON COLLEGE 18

[GoBlue]

POINTWISE:

OVERALL: 2-4

1*: 1-1
2* :0-1
4*; 0-1
5*: 0-1
6*: 1-0



OHIO U 27 - Marshall 22 RATING: 6
NORTH CAROLINA 24 - Pittsburgh 23 RATING: 5
SO CALIFORNIA 31 - Boston College 16 RATING: 4

[GoBlue]

NC POWERPLAYS:

3-3 ( 5 WERE NO PLAYS RATING WISE )3* WINNER


With Marshall HC Snyder resigning, MU will be coached by DC Minter for the bowl. PP predicts
a 4 pt win by Ohio which is close to the line, but the better play is the total. PP predicts just 38 total
points and the line is currently 50. Two tough D’s and mediocre offenses = Under.
4? UNDER 50 OHIO/MARSHALL

PP calls this one right at the line showing Pitt with a 3 pt win and a 289-266 yd edge. We think
Pitt will rebound from blowing a 21 pt lead to Cincy in the ssn fi nale. We like Pitt.
NO PLAY: PITT 23 NORTH CAROLINA 20

Boston College is forecasted to keep it close losing by only 4 points and they also have the
special teams edge. Can’t imagine the Trojans being motivated for their 1st non-BCS bowl in 8 yrs.
4? BOSTON COLLEGE (+) 19 USC 23

[GoBlue]

NORTHCOAST POWERSWEEP:

OVERALL: 3-2

2*:1-1
3*: 1-1
4*: 1-0



The series dates back to 1905 and OU leads 29-17-6. These 2 were MAC foes from ’97-’04 & MU went 7-1 SU (3-5 ATS) vs the Bobcats in that span. Marshall enters the bowl with mixed emotions. They finished the regular season 6-6 and are making their 1st bowl appearance since 2004, but HC Snyder resigned (under pressure) after the season finale and DC Rick Minter will coach the bowl. Minter was the HC at Cincy from 1994-2003 and took them to 4 bowl gms (1-3 SU/ATS). OU is gunning for their 1st 10 win ssn since 1968 and they finished the yr on an 9-2 ATS run. This is their 2nd bowl under HC Solich as they lost to CUSA foe SMiss 28-7 (+6) in the ‘06 GMAC Bowl. Solich is now 2-4 SU/ATS in bowl gms (5 gms at Neb). The Bobcats played on this field on Dec 4th in the MAC title game (lost to CM 20-10, +13’). The Herd faced 7 bowl teams this year and went 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS, being outscored 27-18 and being outgained 374-320. OU went 3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS vs bowl tms outscoring them 28-27 despite being outgained 406-337. Both teams won and covered vs BG, as Marshall won 17-10 (+3) at home despite being outgained 393-346, but they did hold the Falcons to just 10 rush yds. OU won at BG 44-37 (+2’), but were also outgained 474-419 despite rushing for 216 yds. Marshall has 6 Sr’s among their 15 upperclassmen starters, while Ohio has 10 Sr’s among 17 upperclassmen starters. The Herd went 4-2 ATS on the road, incl 3-2 as a dog. OU went 5-2 ATS away from home, incl 1-2 as a favorite.
The Herd has our #95 offense avg 22 ppg and 355 ypg. They received inconsistent play out of QB Anderson. He avg’d 213 ypg (58%) with a 14-13 ratio on the season and definitely missed TE Slate, a Mackey semifinalist, who was the leading receiver (50-607-12.1-4) before suffering a torn ACL in week 10. WR Wilson stepped up in Slate’s absence and finished as the #1 receiver with 57 rec (12.4). RB Marshall was near the top of the NCAA in rushing before missing the L/2 with an ankle inj. He avg’d 117 ypg (5.1) and rushed for 11 TD’s and should be 100% here. He runs behind an OL that avg 6’5� 304. They paved the way for 3.9 ypc and allowed 23 sks (5.9%). It will be interesting to see who handles the D since Minter will have to focus on the entire squad. Marshall has our #74 defense all’g 25 ppg and 392 ypg. The DL avg 6’3� 272 and is led by ‘07 CUSA DPOY McClellan, whose numbers are down due to a nagging ankle inj and the fact that he faces almost constant double-teams. He still led the team in tfl (9.0) and had 3 of the DL’s 13.5 sks (23 total sks). LB Harvey led the team in tkls and sks. The pass D ranks #82 all’g 247 ypg (59%) with a 19-8 ratio. CB Bembry leads the secondary with 11 passes defended. Marshall has our #85 ST’s. Booker (15.8) would be #5 in NCAA in PR avg if he had enough to qualify. K Ratanamorn has been nearly perfect, making 15-16 FG (4-4 from 40+) and all 31 of his PAT.
The Bobcats have our #102 offense avg 25 ppg and 325 ypg. QB Scott started the 1st 2 gms LY before being lost for the yr (Med RS), but started 12 gms TY. Scott had two 300+ gms incl 319 vs TN (most allowed all year). Surprisingly, Ohio, under HC Solich, avg just 120 ypg rushing (3.6) with just 9 rush TD. The Cats had 3 RB’s over 225 yds but none over 600. Ohio has 3 WR’s with 500+ yds incl two 2nd Tm MAC WR’s in Price and Brazill. The OL has had its ups and downs with 2 Sr’s and 3 underclassmen avg 6’4� 291. They allowed 26 sacks (6.9%) but did have a 5 gm streak with 0 sacks and had two 3rd Tm MAC players in LT Chris Rodgers and RT Joe Flading. Ohio has our #63 def allowing 21 ppg and 354 ypg and led the NCAA with 36 takeaways. The DL avg 6’3� 280 with 4 Jr starters, including 3rd Tm MAC DT Ernie Hodge, had 12 of Ohio’s 20 sks while allowing 3.9 ypc. The LB unit has the top 2 tklrs in 1st Tm MAC MLB Keller and 1st Tm MAC WLB Renfro. The secondary has 3 Sr starters including 2nd Tm MAC CB Turner and rFr FS Moore, who was 3rd Tm MAC. They allowed 203 ypg but with just a 17-20 ratio. A big key in Ohio winning the MAC East was their ST’s which rank #11. They blocked 4 punts and had 5 ret TD’s while allowing none. Ohio had 3 ST’s All-MAC players in KR Garrett (1st Tm), PR Brazill (1st Tm) and K Weller (1st Tm), who made 20-27 FG incl 8-12 from 40+ with a L/52.
Marshall enters off their worst performance of the year as they were mauled at UTEP allowing 52 pts. The D is talented with several potential NFL’ers and this layoff will allow them to regroup. MU’s offense has topped 21 pts just once in their L/4. While we’re aware OU has gone Over the total in 3 of the L/4, OU’s offense has avg’d just 317 ypg their L/4 away from home while the D has only allowed 18 ppg in their last 8. Expect a hard hitting, low scoring game with both defenses slowing down the opposition’s rush attack.

FORECAST: Marshall/Ohio UNDER 49’ RATING: 1*





Seventh meeting between these 2 and NC is 4-2 SU and 5-0 ATS but their last meeting was in ‘00 (NC 20-17, +8). NC is 12-14 SU all-time in bowls and 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS L/7. The Tar Heels are making their 2nd consec trip to here and they lost to WV LY 31-30 (+2). HC Davis is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in bowls. NC is making B2B bowl appearances for the 1st time S/’97-‘98. NC is 8-4 SU (7-5 ATS) with all 4 losses vs conf opp’s. Pitt is 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS but their 3 losses were by a combined 11 pts. This is Pitt’s 26th all-time bowl gm and they are 10-15 SU and 1-5 SU/ATS their L/6. This is Pitt’s 2nd visit to Charlotte with their last visit a loss in ‘03 vs UVA (23-16 +3). HC Wannstedt is 0-1 SU/ATS in bowls. Davis and Wannstedt worked together under Jimmy Johnson at Miami (FL), Oklahoma St and with the Dallas Cowboys. These 2 both faced Conn and NCSt this year with both beating UC but losing to NC State (both 0-2 ATS). Pitt has faced 7 bowl caliber teams (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS), outscoring them by an avg of 29-22 and outgaining them 406-301 ypg while NC also faced 7 (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS), only outscoring foes 23-19 and being outgained 311-301. The Panthers have 11 Sr starters among their 15 upperclassmen while the Tar Heels have just 4 among their 17 upperclassmen. Both teams play their home games on grass. Pitt has gone 3-2 SU/ATS on the road TY while NC was 3-2 SU but 2-3 ATS. Pitt was 7-2 as a fav TY while NC was 3-1 as a dog. The Tar Heels will have the fan edge as this is only about 65 miles from Chapel Hill and Pitt fans usually do not travel well to bowls.
Pitt has our #22 offense avg 400 ypg and 33 ppg. Coming into the year QB Stull (#11 pass eff) had to battle for his job after last year’s poor performance in the Sun Bowl and won back the hearts of fans (booed early on) to lead Pitt to the their best record S’/02 and a shot at a BCS game. DW runs a pro-style offense (rare these days) with a slew of weapons to choose from. RB Lewis (#3 NCAA) is the workhorse for the offense, breaking the BE’s frosh rushing record and is 46 yds shy of Tony Dorsett’s school record. Hynoski is their throwback FB. Hybrid TE Dickerson (4.4 spd) has moved from RB to WR to LB in his career and leads NCAA TE’s with 10 TD’s. WR Baldwin (6’5�) avg 20.0 ypc and was 1st WR to go over 1,000 since Lee in ‘04. The OL avg 6’4� 293 with 3 Sr’s and has paved the way for 184.6 (5.0), all’g 13 sks. The Pitt defense has our #23 ranking all’g 324 ypg and 20 ppg. They lead the NCAA with 44 sacks. The DL avg 6-4 274 all’g 108 rush ypg (3.3) with 34 of the team’s 44 sks. They are led by a pair of All-Conf players in DE Romeus (8 sk) and DT Williams (15 tfl). The heart of the defense is LB Gunn (#3 tklr) who returned from LY’s neck inj. The secondary is all’g 216 ypg (57%) with a 15-14 ratio. SS DeCicco leads the team in tkls (85) and Berry is their top corner, but he missed time with inj and DNP vs WV. Pitt has our #73 ST’s ranking. Dan Hutchins handles both K and P duties and earned BE POW vs Conn. KR Saddler was leading the BE (25.7) before missing 2 gms with inj. The cover units are all’g 21.6 on KR and 9.0 on PR.
QB Yates became just the 2nd player in NC history to throw over 5,000 career yds (#2 comp, #2 TD, #2 att). NC has struggled with their running game but have been more productive as of late despite the loss of RB Shaun Draughn, who suffered a fractured shoulder vs Duke and is out for the year. Ryan Houston has moved into the starting role. TE Zack Pianalto, when healthy, has been one of NC’s top offensive weapons (missed 4 w/foot inj and most of FSU w/concussion). The O-line avg 6’5� 305 blocking for 3.7 ypc but has all’d 23 sks (6.9%). This unit is led by HM ACC LT Kyle Jolly. NC has our #90 off and #9 def. The Tar Heels are avg 24 ppg while only all’g 17. NC’s D has been solid TY and ranks #6 in total D in the NCAA (#9 w/19 int and #3 101 tfl). The DL avg 6’4� 295 and is led by 1st Tm ACC DE Robert Quinn (4.51 spd), who ranks #1 in the ACC in tfl and #2 in sks, and 2nd Tm ACC DT Marvin Austin. The rush D is all’g just 92.8 ypg (2.8). The LB’s are solid with 1st Tm ACC Quan Sturdivant and 2nd Tm Bruce Carter (#1 and #2 tklrs). NC has our #18 ranked pass eff D. The secondary is led by a pair of 1st Tm ACC in CB Kendric Burney (#19 NCAA w/5 int) and S Deunta Williams (#8 NCAA w/6 int). The Tar Heels have our #54 spec tms. NC is avg 20.1 on KR’s and 13.2 on PR’s. They all’d 21.1 on KR’s and 5.0 on PR’s.
If HC Wannstedt can properly motivate the Panthers after letting a 21 pt lead dissipate in a BCS clincher, they should come away with a win. It will be an entertaining matchup as the checklist shows Pitt with all of the offensive advantages and NC with most of the defensive edges. While we usually side with the defense, the Panthers’ stop unit is a talented bunch and will be able to slow a NC offense which has topped 21 pts just 5 times vs IA foes.

FORECAST: PITTSBURGH by 10 RATING: 3* PITT






This will mark the 3rd meeting all-time between these 2 programs (USC 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) but the 1st in postseason play. USC is in an unfamiliar role this bowl ssn as they lost their spot atop the P10 mountain for the 1st time S/’01. They also fell out of the Top 25 and failed to reach the 10 win plateau for the 1st time since Carroll’s 1st ssn in LA. This is USC’s first trip to the Emerald Bowl and 9th straight bowl overall (6-2 SU/ATS). Although this is BC HC Spaziani’s 1st yr, he was the interim coach for the ‘06 bowl after Tom O’Brien unexpectedly left for NC State. The Eagles will be playing in their 11th consec bowl (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) and will be making their way to the Bay Area for the 2nd time as they ply’d Colo St in the then “San Francisco Bowl� back in ‘03 (35-21 win). USC took on 8 bowl caliber tms TY going 5-3 SU (2-6 ATS) breaking even in the scoring dept (26-26) while actually being outgained 391-372. BC also struggled vs bowl eligible tms going 2-4 SU (3-3 ATS) being outscored 26-18 and outgained 341-263. The Trojans have 8 Sr starters and 17 upperclassmen and the Eagles also have 8 Sr starters with 16 upperclassmen. USC went 4-2 SU but just 1-5 ATS on the road while BC went 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. Both schools faced ND in South Bend TY but with different results as the Trojans escaped w/a 34-27 win (501-367 yd edge) and the Eagles blew a 3 pt 4Q lead falling to the Irish 20-16 (outgained 352-349).
The ssn did not look promising for BC as they lost their starting QB over the summer (acad) and were w/o ‘08 ACC Def POY LB Herzlich who was diagnosed with cancer. BC finished 8-4 but for a 3rd str yr was dealt a 2nd-tier bowl. BC finished with our #69 rated off TY avg 26 ppg and 325 ypg. True Fr QB Shinskie, who is 25 and spent 6 yrs in MLB, set a BC Frosh rec’d for pass TD and pass yds. The run gm has been solid with 2nd Tm ACC RB Harris who has 7 gms with 100+ rush yds TY. The OL avg 6’6� 302 and all’d 3.8 ypc and 17 sks (5.3%). This unit is led by 1st Tm ACC LT Castonzo and 2nd Tm ACC C Tennant. BC has our #24 overall rated def all’g 19 ppg and 318 ypg. The DL avg 6’4� 266 with 3 Sr’s. The rush D is all’g 3.0 ypc and the DL has 12 of their 17 sks. With Herzlich OFY and Thompson and McLaughlin sidelined early in the ssn w/inj’s, 1st Tm ACC true Fr Kuechly stepped up (#1 tklr) finishing #1 among Fr in the NCAA in tkls. BC ranks #32 in our pass D rankings all’g 214 ypg (61%) with a 10-13 ratio. BC has our #41 ST featuring former walk-on K Aponavicius who became BC’s all-time leading scorer. BC is avg 21.0 on KR and 12.2 on PR and is all’g 19.3 on KR and 8.9 on PR’s.
The USC off has been very inconsistent in ‘09 (#34) as they have avg just 27 ppg and 385 ypg on the yr. Part of this may be due to the growing pains of true Fr Barkley who looked sharp at times (final drive in Columbus) but has also faltered (Stanford). The run gm suffered the devastating loss of Stafon Johnson early on, RB’s McKnight and Bradford took over the bulk of the carries for the remainder of the ssn. FB Havili continues to be a weapon in the pass gm but a shldr inj hampered him during the yr. With a young QB, TE McCoy became an important part of the pass gm as he led the tm in ypc (20.8) but also dealt with some inj’s of his own. The inj bug also bit the WR’s as David Ausberry and Ronald Johnson missed significant time. The OL avg 6’5� 292 (3 Sr) paving the way for 5.1 ypc while allowing 17 sks (5%). OG Byers continues to be the face of the unit due to his versatility as he was forced to take over the starting C duties for an ailing O’Dowd (has since returned). USC’s def is ranked #21, all’g 20 ppg and 343 ypg on the yr but it was a tale of 2 halves as the def allowed 9 ppg and 239 ypg thru the 1st 5 gms but gave up an astonishing 29 ppg and 417 ypg after. The DL avg 6’3� 279 (0 Sr) and has accounted for 79% (26) of USC’s 33 sks. DE Griffen has 1st RD NFL draft potential and requires constant double tms. The LB unit is the main reason for the def struggles (LY’s NFL losses). The secondary is the most veteran group of the entire def led by the hard-hitting Mays and the experienced CB duo of Pinkard and Thomas. The unit as a whole allowed 212 ypg (53%) w/a 11-10 ratio ranking #13 in our ratings. USC has our #58 rated ST’s with 1st Tm P10 PR Williams (15.4 avg, 2 TD) while the PR def was great all’g just 2.1 ypr.
Rose, Rose, Rose, Rose, Orange, Rose, Orange - those are the last 7 bowls that the Trojans have played in and making this trip to San Fran for a bowl on the day after Christmas will test Carroll’s motivational skills. It is obvious from the checklist that USC is the superior team, but the continued loss of coordinators throughout the past several years has made them beatable. BC meanwhile is thrilled to be playing this caliber of opponent and they have won and covered their last 4 bowls when they’ve been a dog or pick.


FORECAST: BOSTON COLLEGE (+) USC by 4 RATING: 2* BOSTON COLLEGE

[GoBlue]

LOGICAL APPROACH:

OVERALL: 8-4
SIDES: 4-2
TOTALS: 4-2

1 UNIT: 4-0
2 UNIT: 1-2
3 UNIT: 3-2




Ohio U
Marshall

On the surface this appears to be one of the less attractive matchups this Bowl season as it pits a pair of little known programs against one another. Marshall is down considerably from the days of Pennington, Leftwich and Moss and, in fact, is undergoing a coaching change after coach Snyder was forced out despite the Herd making it to a Bowl. The team will be coached by assistant coach Minter who has previous head coaching experience at the FBS level. Ohio is coached by ex-Nebraska coach Solich who has a National Title on his resume. Unlike his Nebraska teams this season's Bobcats gained nearly two-thirds of its yards via the pass. Marshall shows a similar profile. Ohio was stronger on defense and led the nation averaging 2.8 takeaways per game. Creating turnovers was not a strength of Marshall which averaged just 1.3 takeaways (# 103). Ohio was competitive in non-conference losses to Connecticut and Tennessee while Marshall was blown out by Virginia Tech and also lost to instate rival West Virginia. Both teams beat Bowling Green by 7 points - Ohio U in a high scoring contest and Marshall in a defensive battle. Marshall ended the season by losing 3 of 4 while Ohio U had a 4 game winning streak broken in their competitive loss to Central Michigan in the MAC Title game. Marshall is in their first Bowl in 5 seasons while Ohio U returns after a w season absence so we should get enthuSIAstic performances from both teams. The teams appear evenly matched as is reflected in the short line. Ohio does deserve to be the slight favorite and based on their overall defensive edges earns the nod. Ohio wins 23-20, making

OHIO U a 1 Star Selection and the
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .




Meineke Car Care Bowl - Charlotte, NC - Saturday, December 26, 2009

North Carolina ACC 8 - 4 5 - 5 - 0 plus 3 plus 3 109
Pittsburgh Big East 9 - 3 6 - 5 - 0 44 44 364

Carolina had a second straight 8-4 season under coach Davis in his third season although they ended the season with a third straight loss to arch-rival NC State that snapped a late season 4 game win streak. But that's nothing compared to Pitt which was thinking BCS Bowl before dropping the final 2 Big East games to West Virginia and Cincinnati, including the blowing of a huge 21 point lead at home with that BCS bid on the line. They are making a second straight Bowl trip and seek to atone for a 3-0 loss in last season's Sun Bowl, one of the ugliest Bowl games in recent memory. Carolina is also in a second straight Bowl and return to the same Bowl in which they lost a 31-30 heartbreaker to West Virginia last season. Carolina should have the major crowd support edge and might be the more motivated team as a result. Both teams have solid defenses, especially Carolina which allows an average of just 268 yards per game (# 6). Their offense is weak however (# 107), averaging 89 yards less per game than Pitt. Both teams had narrow wins over Connecticut and both also lost competitive games to NC State. Pitt's offense excelled at protecting the football while Carolina was strong in forcing turnovers. Pitt's edge on offense is greater than Carolina's edge on defense. The most significant stat might be Carolina allowing just 2.8 yards per rush which should force Pitt into more of a passing game than they might prefer. Given the stakes played for at the end of the regular season Pitt may be in a more fragile state of mind. The fundamentals suggest a low scoring contest with the defenses making the bigger plays. Carolina also rates the coaching edge and should be the better prepared team and better able to make adjustments. The call is for Carolina to pull the mild upset. North Carolina wins 20-17, making

NORTH CAROLINA a 3 Star Selection and the
UNDER also a 3 Star Selection .




Emerald Bowl -

Boston College ACC 8 - 4 6 - 4 - 1 plus 9 plus 7 3,696
USC Pac 10 8 - 4 3 - 9 - 0 45 ½ 43 ½ 342


This Bowl is a reward for a better than expected season for Boston College and a huge letdown for USC which normally plays in January, often for a Rose Bowl or BCS Championship. Their mindset has to be a concern especially with several key players expected to be OUT for this contest. Boston College was very limited on offense all season, especially on the road where they struggled to defeat lowly Virginia and Maryland, scoring just 19 and 14 points against that pair of 2 and 3 win foes. They also lost 20-16 at Notre Dame where USC won 34-27 earlier in the season in a game dominated statistically by the Trojans. In fact, in 5 road games BC did not reach 20 points in any of them. Against the "elite" teams they faced on the road, Boston College was outscored by Clemson and Virginia Tech by a combined 73-21 and were outgained 694-217! USC still has a solid defense but one that struggled against the more high powered offenses it faced in Pac 10 play. They should not be as challenged by BC's offense. The site should favor the Trojans playing within their home state and having numerous alums in the San Francisco area. BC had won 8 straight Bowls prior to losing last season 16-14 to a highly motivated Vanderbilt in what was a virtual home game for Vandy. USC has won 3 straight and 6 of 7 Bowls, all of which were BCS Bowls. Their last non-BCS Bowl was a 10-6 Las Vegas Bowl loss to Utah in 2001, coach Carroll's first season. USC has the clear talent edge. Although their motivation is a concern the lack of motivation is more often evident on offense where receivers may not go all out or linemen may not hold their blocks. Defenders almost always bring intensity as they just love to hit people. This game should be low scoring with USC having enough to get past a much weaker foe as Carroll and the Trojans look to 2010. USC wins 26-13, making

USC a 2 Star Selection and the
UNDER a 3 Star Selection .

[GoBlue]

MARTY OTTO

Best Bet: Marshall +3

Little Caesars Bowl @ Detroit O/U 49 10 am PT
The Ohio Bobcats are getting plenty of respect in the marketplace despite playing
a much weaker schedule than their opponent. Ohio’s defense was opportunistic
and forced a bunch of turnovers this year but their overall numbers were mediocre.
They finished in the middle of the pack in total yardage allowed in a down year offensively
for the MAC. This is a team that was outgained in three of their final four
games. While Marshall’s offense isn’t exactly explosive I think they have the type of
mentality and strong ground game to excel in this matchup. The big boost of getting
star RB Darius Marshall back on the field is going to pay great dividends. Marshall
led the team in rushing this season (5.1 ypc) and topped 1,000 yards despite
missing the final two games. We also get a little motivational boost with Marshall
naming former WVU and Florida assistant “Doc� Holliday as its new head coach.
No doubt his players will be looking to impress rather than treating this as just
a vacation. Finally, fading MAC teams in bowl games has proven a sound strategy
over the last few years with horrific marks of 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS since 2006.

[GoBlue]

HELMUT SPORTS

Best Bet: North Carolina +3

Car Care Bowl @ Charlotte, N.C. O/U 44.5 1:30 pm PT
A large factor in lower tier bowl games is motivation and I got a sense that the
Tar Heels are the more motivated team in this matchup. Pitt senior defensive lineman
Gus Mustakas told the Post-Gazette, “It almost feels like throwing a season
away. You go so far and your goal is to win the Big East championship and you
come so close -- it really hurts, bad.� While Tar Heel coach Butch Davis had these
comments, “Our players are excited to continue their season and play so close to
home.� The bread and butter of Pitt’s offense is the strong running game led by
freshman Dion Lewis, who ran for 1,640 yards to finish third in the country. The
Tar Heels will counter with a defense that allowed only 93 yards a game to opposing
rushers, good for ninth best in the country. UNC struggled with its run game
but have been more productive over the second half of the season despite the
loss of Shaun Draughn to a shoulder injury. They averaged 170 ypg on the ground
and put up 28 ppg in their last seven games. In what is basically a home game for
a team playing its best football late in the season, North Carolina gets the nod.

[GoBlue]

WINNING POINTS

OVERALL: 2-4
BEST BETS:
RECOMMENDED:



Ohio over Marshall by 7
The sum of the Marshall parts was not particularly pretty this season, with the
Thundering Herd barely qualifying for this spot at 6-6, and we might even see less
than that here. With no player on the roster having ever appeared in a bowl game,
and now a disheveled coaching staff after Mark Snyder resigned following that dismal
52-21 loss at U.T.E.P., where does the leadership come from? Rick Minter will
take over as head man for this game, but was apparently not given any chance for
the full-time position (already filled by West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday), so
even his motivation is a question mark, while the other assistants have to spend as
much time looking for next year’s job as putting a plan together for this game. That
is a problem against an Ohio team that brings excellent preparation under Frank
Solich, which meant solid play in all aspects this season, including a defense that
came up with 36 takeaways, and there were 10 TD’s scored by either that defense
or the special teams. With QB Theo Scott fully healthy and a deep WR corps they
can exploit a pass defense that was 99th in the nation in yards allowed, and in selling
out their ticket allotment they get a spark from fan support as well. Meanwhile
the Marshall athletic department has projected to sell only 30 percent of their seats,
a sign that the fans are just as flat as the team may be.

OHIO 30-23.




MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL (Charlotte, NC)
Pittsburgh over North Carolina by 9
Ordinarily just getting to a bowl game in back-to-back seasons would be a major
plus for North Carolina, as would playing in Charlotte. But we are not sure that is
the case this time. Season #3 under Butch Davis did not necessarily show any signs
of progress, especially with that disappointing loss to N. C. State in that major
revenge affair to close out, and appearing in Charlotte for the second straight
December is a letdown for a team that had hoped to take a trip. The problem is
easy to diagnose – a passing game that lost three N.F.L. draft choices from the
receiving corps did not have the replacements on campus, and the Tar Heels finished
107th in the nation in total offense, and 97th in pass efficiency. The going
does not get any easier for this group against a tenacious Pittsburgh defensive front
that finished #1 in the nation in sacks, and the time off that a bowl game brings
means that all members of that DL come in with fresh legs. And while the Carolina
offense never did find a direction, Bill Stull had a solid season to direct a Panther
offense that finished 11th in passing efficiency, and RB Dion Lewis is something
special, rolling for 1,640 yards and 16 TD’s as a freshmen. They bring a balance
and consistency that the Tar Heels lack, and that spells the difference.

PITTSBURGH 26-17.



EMERALD BOWL (San Francisco, CA)
Southern Cal over Boston College by 13
There was not a bigger disappointment in college football this autumn than
Southern Cal; after all of those years of seamlessly plugging holes, a defense that
lost eight N.F.L. draft choices did not develop, and an offense built around true
freshman QB Matt Barkley was awfully vanilla. So it begs the question as to just
what the attitude is going to be here, either totally flat because they expected much
bigger things, or passionate as a young team fights to erase the bitter memories,
and builds towards next season. And when Pete Carroll publicly stated "I can guarantee
you that they're going to play this game like it's the national championship
game" we have to at least attach some weight to it. This is still a team loaded with
top-flight talent, with inexperience the prime culprit, and the chance to have
extended practice sessions can lead to the kind of bowl outings we have seen from
the program in recent years – 6-1 SU and ATS. Boston College will play the usual
physical defense, but in two road games vs. bowl teams the offense gained only 215
yards combined at Clemson and Virginia Tech, turning the ball over seven times,
and the passing game simply is not there.

SOUTHERN CAL 29-16.

[GoBlue]

BANG THE BOOK ( 3-3 )

The one thing that stands out about this bowl game is its name. Wow the pizza bowl? They seem to be getting more and more interesting every year but let’s focus on the game. In this game Ohio takes on Marshall to see who the winner of the prestigious pizza bowl will be. Marshall is going through a lot as they head into this game. They do not have a current player on a team that has ever played in a bowl game and they are off a very disappointing bowl season in which they fired the head coach. Now interim head coach Rick Minter will have three weeks to get his kids ready for this bowl game.

Ohio finished the regular season 9-4, 7-1 MAC on the season. The Bobcats lost the Marathon Mid-American Conference Championship to Central Michigan, 20-10, on Friday, Dec. 4 at Ford Field. They have a very talented offense and will be up for a big challenge against the Thundering Herd. The Herd’s defense has actually gotten worse as the season has progressed and they have allowed 36 points per game in the last three. That should get better with time to rest but with inexperienced kids in a bowl game and an interim coach the Bobcats have the edge. The Thundering Herd are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. MAC and the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games. Take the cats and surrender the small number.

Bowl Pick: Ohio -2.5

When Pittsburgh was up 21 points against Cincinnati in the game last week that would decide the Big East Championship they have envisioned a much bigger bowl game then the Meineke Car Care Bowl. Then the defense collapsed and the Bearcats won the Big East crown and are playing Florida in a BCS Bowl game. The Panthers will have to settle for a trip to Charlotte where they will take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. For the Tar Heels this trip to Charlotte is a welcomed one. They also struggled down the stretch but will have a home field advantage and play here for the second time in two years. Last year they sold out this stadium as they played Boston College and had an edge in the crowd. Although Pittsburgh travels well they should have it again this year against the Panthers.

While Carolina has an excellent defense they have big problems on offense and at times if the deep threat is eliminated can have trouble moving the ball at all. The Heels are off a game where they passed very well but that is not a good thing in this spot. The Tar Heels are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite and they are 4-0 ATS in the last four games after a straight up loss. The Panthers still have plenty to look forward to as they can win ten games this season. Dion Lewis is a beast in the backfield and will be too much for the Tar Heels to handle as the Panthers win in Charlotte

Meineke Car Care Bowl Pick: Pittsburgh -3


USC has come a long way this season, and not in a good direction. They started off the year ranked high in the polls and had National Championship aspirations. That soon changed to BCS bowl aspirations after an upset loss to Washington. After a few more stunning blowouts especially in a loss to Stanford, the Trojans find themselves in the Emerald Bowl. For Boston College they had wins on the season and were 6-1 at home but they never really managed to get that signature win. In all of the high profile games that always seemed to come up short losing to Florida St and Notre Dame, two proud franchises that were very beatable. The road record was not great so getting the Emerald Bowl was a good pull for the Eagles and can now get some serious momentum for next year if they pull off the upset.


The Trojans don’t want to be here. Pete Carroll will say all the right things and the Trojans are the better team but this game means nothing to them. Even if they blow out the Eagles they will not be able to get into the top of the BCS controversy. The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Eagles on the other hand find themselves in a good spots for this game. They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0, 7-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog. This is too many points for the disappointing Trojans to try and cover.


Emerald Bowl Pick: Boston College +9

[GoBlue]

Fairway Jay

Best Bet: USC -8

Much will be made about USC’s potential lack of motivation for this contest, as the Trojans have been playing in premier bowl games each of the past seven years. Yet playing in their home state with a superior coach and motivator should be enough intangibles for the Trojans to roll. Once the players hit the field, USC will prove their class over what I feel is a much weaker Boston College outfit. USC has faced the superior schedule and offensive and defensive units. While the Trojans’ offense was lackluster at times, they still ran the ball for over 5.0 ypc. Boston College’s defense was solid for much of the year and that could technically keep them within striking distance,however,the offense is going to struggle against USC’s superior speed and strength. Boston College turned the ball over 24 times against less skilled and tal- ented teams and failed to score 20 points in any road contest this season.They also were gashed against their only two quality road opponents; at Clemson and Virginia Tech.The Eagles may be excited to face such a prestigious program but we see this matchup favoring USC across the board and a double-digit victory a likely result

[GoBlue]

THE SPORTS REPORTER:

OVERALL: 2-4
BEST BETS: 0-1
RECOMMENDED: 1-0



MARSHALL over OHIO by 2
Defensive coordinator Rick Minter will coach Marshall up to and through this game, following
the resignation of Mark Snyder at the end of the regular season. Raise your hand if you’ve
heard that situations like this are difficult for a team to overcome, then watched that team
win its bowl game. Star running back Darius Marshall should be back in action after an ankle
injury held him out of the Herd's last two games. The offense gained 475 yards vs. SMU in
the regular season’s penultimate affair, without Marshall the running back, and also without
TE Cody Slate, lost for the season shortly before that game. Marshall the kid rushed for 117
yards per game, 13th in the nation. Ohio's last five opponents have rushed for an average of
158 yards. The Marshall offense can and should move the chains. Minter is fully aware of the
team’s biggest problem, which is being the Blundering Herd. “What this program lacks is discipline…�
“We're a very poorly conditioned football team…� That sets the expectations low
and gives Minter an opportunity to pad his resume for his next job. "If we win the kicking
game, against the best kicking game in the MAC, we have an opportunity to be even-steven
in that area and win the game," he says. Ohio has gained the most turnovers in the nation
over the course of the season (36). But QB Theo Scott was obviously hurting in the MAC Title
game, when the offense generated only 10 points.

MARSHALL, 24-22.



NORTH CAROLINA over PITTSBURGH by 1
Jimmy Johnson disciples Dave Wannstedt and Butch Davis have the same basic philosophy
– lead with a physical defense that huffs and puffs and stops the run, have a strong offensive
line and a play-action attack. They are as likely to change what they do as leopards are
likely to change their spots. It’s not a big game (see the name of it), therefore Wannstedt has
a chance to win it, although this is the same guy who prepared his team to be shut out in a
pre-New Year’s bowl game last season. Hey, at least the defense only allowed 3 points to that
Oregon State team. UNC’s offense ain’t much – 4.8 yards per play, 17.5 first downs per
game. "I've got to prove myself in a way. I know I can play better, and my teammates know
I can play better. I've kind of got to prove it all on December 26," says North Carolina quarterback
T.J. Yates. But the defense usually shows up, and North Carolina’s entire coaching
staff is the group more likely to get creative in the lead-in, as well as make half-time adjustments
that produce better results. When favored against real opponents, the Pittsburgh
defense is prone to not getting the big stop necessary.

NORTH CAROLINA, 24-23.




USC over BOSTON COLLEGE by 8
Over-achievers take on under-achievers in what is sure to be a defensive battle. BC’s defense
is stout and comes in a bit underrated. They’ve had to be good because the offense is inconsistent
– especially when they can’t get RB Montel Harris going. Trojan freshman QB Barkley
has thrown at least one pick in his last 8 games – one of the reasons why his squad has
mustered over 21 points just once in the last 5 games (the one was earned on a meaningless
last minute TD vs. UCLA). Barkley’s supporting cast must step up and make plays while
the kid plays game manager. The USC backfield could be impacted by RB Bradford’s ankle
tweaking during bowl practice and by an investigation into RB McKnight’s use of an SUV.
Eventually the Trojan hoops team will probably take the fall for that one – but it might be a
short-term distraction. As for the Eagles and their freshman QB, Shinskie can be a turnover
machine at times – cranking out fumbles and interceptions like a Ford plant. USC’s defense
fell short of prior teams’ standards, but what they did well was bring the heat to opposing
signal callers. If the running game isn’t working for BC, Shinskie will be left running for his
life. The Pac-10 team definitely has the talent edge here, but for a team used to playing in
Rose Bowls, will they be motivated? Pom-pom Pete Carroll thinks so – but even if not – there
are too many 5-star high school recruits on the roster to drop this one.

USC, 24-16.

[GoBlue]

MONEYMAKER




OHIO -3 OVER MARSHALL
MARSHALL/OHIO OVER 49
This matchup features a well balanced Ohio team that should have no problem scoring on a weak Marshall defense
(99th in yards allowed). Ohio has a productive offense, as well as an opportunistic defense and explosive special teams.
Herd defense came up with 36 takeaways this year, and the team scored 10 TDs by the defense and special teams
combined. Perhaps the most significant Ohio edge is in the emotion and focus they’ll bring to this game. They’re excited
to be here, and have already sold their allotment of tickets while Marshall will be lucky to sell 35% of theirs. The
Marshall coaching staff is in a bit of disarray, with head coach Mark Synder resigning after the Herd’s season ending
blowout loss to UTEP. They’ve already tabbed a replacement, which leaves Rick Minter—who’ll coach the team for this
game—as a little more than a caretaker. Ohio is the better team with the better focus and they should win and cover
easily.

[GoBlue]

SPORTS WAGERS

Ohio –3 over Marshall

Well, if momentum means anything at all then one would have to give the Bobcats a significant edge here. Ohio went on a significant run to end the season, posting a 7-1 mark in its final eight games while the Thundering Herd lost four of its last six games and that includes a rather disturbing 52-21 loss to close out the season against UTEP. What’s also unappealing about the Thundering Herd is its pedestrian offense that struggles miserably to score points. Ion fact, they scored 21 or less in seven of its 10 games and a month layoff is unlikely to help what ails them. Aside from being whipped by Va Tech, Marshall was also crushed by both West Virginia and Tulane. The Herd went 4-4 in the conference and just 6-6 overall. It’s also worth noting that despite not allowing a ton of points the Thundering Herd defense was shaky at best. They were completely shredded in terms of yards allowed (almost 400 yards per game) and were fortunate to not allow about another 10 points against per game. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have never won a Bowl game in three previous attempts. They have to know this is a great chance to do so and there’s no excuse for not pulling it out. They had some good losses this season to UConn by 7 and to Tennessee by 9. In a crucial game against Temple in the second last week of the year they crushed the Owls 35-17. The Bobcats have a big edge at QB, its defense was stellar all season and let’s not forget that they also have all the aforementioned momentum on its side too. Play: Ohio –3 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

[GoBlue]

Pick 'n' Roll: Today's best NBA bets

Washington Wizards at Minnesota Timberwolves

A nasty knee bruise seems to be the least of Gilbert Arenas’ troubles this holiday season.

The Washington Wizards quirky point guard is the middle of a firearms investigation in which the team says Arenas had weapons in his locker. This is a violation of the NBA’s rules on firearm possession and the league and the franchise is looking into the matter.

Arenas said the only reason the guard brought the guns to the Verizon Center was to keep them away from his children.

"It happened like Dec. 10. Right after my daughter was born," Arenas told ESPN. "I decided I didn't want the guns in my house and around the kids anymore, so I took them to my lockbox at Verizon Center. Then like a week later, I turned them over to team security and told them to hand them over to the police, because I don't want them anymore. I wouldn't have brought them to D.C. had I known the rules. After my daughter was born, I was just like, I don't need these anymore."

Arenas does have a prior weapons charge stemming from an incident in 2003 when he was caught driving with a concealed weapon on a suspended license. He was suspended for the2004-05 season opener after he pled guilty to the chargers.

While a punishment, if any, will likely come later in the week, Arenas’ situation and injury are an extra heaping of distractions while the Wizards try to stay focused after the holiday break.

Pick: Minnesota


Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz (-8, 205)

The Sixers better have enjoyed be home for the holidays because starting Saturday, they hit the road for a five-game swing – opening in Utah.

Philadelphia is struggling, winning just twice in its last 10 games. The 76ers’ most recent defeat was a tough loss to the Washington Wizards this Tuesday in which Philly was outscored 33-19 in the fourth quarter, losing 105-98 as a 2-point underdog. The letdown was so hard, the team cancelled practice Wednesday.

"For me, it was an emotional loss," coach Eddie Jordan told the media. "We talked about the fourth quarter, and I wanted to settle down myself, come in and have a terrific day [Thursday], be a little more even-keel."

It’s been a hectic month for the Sixers. December brought a 2-8 record (3-7 ATS), the return of Allen Iverson and left the team losing nine of their last 10 road contests heading into the weekend. That frustration boiled over during practice this week, where thing got a bit “chippy�, according to guard Lou Williams.

"It depends on the mind-set of the guys," Williams told reporters of the upcoming road swing. "I'm sick of losing. I know a couple of other guys who are sick of losing. We got to get everybody on the same page as far as what we want to accomplish. The season isn't in the wash yet. We still can put some games together and make a run."

Pick: Utah

[GoBlue]

Ats lock
10 nc +1.5
3 usc -7

Michael Cannon

Ohio -3 vs. Marshall, at Detroit, MI

I am now 50-35-3 with my last 88 free plays!

Take Ohio minus the points in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl this afternoon.

A lot of uncertainty surrounds the Marshall football team today. Coach Mark Snyder resigned following a 52-21 annihilation by Utep in the season finale. That led to the hiring of West Virginia assistant coach Doc Holliday.

But Holliday won’t take over until after the bowl season, which means Rick Minter will be the interim coach for the Herd today.

Not sure what kind of message he can get through to his players when the entire coaching staff, himself included, will be worrying about where to find a new job.

In any event, Ohio should be able to get the job done here. Marshall’s offense ranked near the bottom of the nation, so the Bobcats should have no problem keeping them in check.

Take Ohio minus the points as they grab the win and cover.

3? OHIO







Drew Gordon

Boston College +7' vs USC at San Francisco, CA

26-16-2 roll L44 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Boston College/Southern California match up.

For a powerhouse like Southern California, the Emerald Bowl is an insult. It's not even a January Bowl game, and quite frankly, I believe the Trojans could care less about this match up or Boston College... This is not what the coach Carroll's "5? recruits" signed up for, plain and simple.

On the other hand, the Eagles had to battle their way into the postseason, and see a real chance at notoreity, if they can pull off what everyone in the world would consider a monumental upset. Boston College surged down the stretch, going 4-2 SU, including road wins at Virginia & Maryland, two tough opponents who needed wins and were playing at home. How did they do it? Using the same formula they're going to use to cover tonight's match up: DEFENSE.

You see, while the Trojans may have the bigger names on defense, its the Eagles stop-unit who's playing better football, allowing just 19 ppg on 284 total yards over their L3 games. For comparisons sake, USC is allowing 27 ppg on 370 total yards over the same span! Boston College's offense is no juggernaut, but they're more than capable of playing a run-heavy/milk the clock kind of game behind stud RB Montel Harris, who's 4.8 yards/carry is no accident! The Trojans D has been getting skewered the L2 months, allowing almost 29 ppg over their L7 games!

Bottom line, time to wake up Trojan-backers... You're team is in a rebuilding year! Matt Barkley has a bright future, but for the time being, you're offense is not good enough to lay this many against a rock-solid Boston College defense that's playing great football right now. In the end, the PAC-10 is down this year and it'll show, as one of their best burns their backers once again (1-6 ATS L/7 games) here tonight.

Take Boston College plus the points over Southern California in this college football match up.

2? BOSTON COLLEGE





Joel Tyson

I know all about how the Trojans are NOT playing in the bowl they really want to be playing in, but I have to tell you, they are hands-down the more talented team, and I feel pretty sure the cream will rise to the top in this game.

The line keeps coming down in this game, and after watching Boston College look HORRID in their 2 road games against bowl-bound teams - losing to both at Clemson and Virginia Tech - I just have a feeling the Eagles will lose touch in this game and not stay within the impost.

The Trojans are 6-1 both straight up, and against the spread in their last 7 bowl games.

I will lay the wood with SoCal!

4? USC TROJANS






Charley Sutton

Bad call yesterday as UNLV can’t take care of business and ends up taking the loss.

I’m not losing again tonight as I’m taking USC in the Emerald Bowl against Boston College.

Boston College rolls into this game having failed to cover in 3 straight games.

Consider, too, Boston College has gone just 1-3 ATS its last 4 games on the road. The Eagles have also failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 games at neutral sites and have failed to cover in 5 straight games in December.

It’ll be another tough road for BC as the Trojans get over in this one.

3 ? USC






Jay McNeil

The Magic didn't give the performance I was expecting being home on Christmas against Boston, but I'll bounce back quickly as I turn my attention back to college football!

I think the Panthers have been a little underrated all season. At least I haven't given them enough credit. They lost three games this season by a combined 11 points, and was less than a minute away from claiming the Big East title against Cincinnati.

While Pitt's 45-44 loss to the Bearcats had to be gut-wrenching, I think coach Dave Wannstedt will have his team ready to give a strong effort today as he has been pounding into the Panthers that they can be the first Pitt team to win 10 games since junior QB Dan Marino led the Panthers to an 11-1 record in 1981.

Pitt has a superior offense with Bill Stull, who was named all-conference this year, and running back Dion Lewis, the Big East's offensive player of the year, who has rushed for 1,640 yards (136.7 per game) and 16 touchdowns.

North Carolina has one of the nation's top defenses, but I think the Panthers have enough weapons to get the job done today, and Pitt's 26th-ranked defense should be able to shut down the Tar Heels' offense.

The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. I think they cap off their season with a big victory today. Take Pitt to win by at least a touchdown.

3? PITTSBURGH






Brett Atkins

I'm 10-7 with my last 17 free selections and today I've got a comp winner coming on the pro hardwood as I'm going with the Thunder to get the job doen against the Bobcats in Oklhaoma City.

Oklahoma City just went on a three-game road trip that tested them in Houston, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The Thunder went just 1-2 on the trip but played their asses off in all three and showed they are right on the verge of moving into the upper echelon of the Western Conference.

That’s why I’ll lay the chalk with them today as they have had a couple days off to recover from the trip and return to their home court as a relatively short favorite. The Thunder are putting up 99.1 points per game at home this season while Charlotte really struggles to score on the highway, managing just 86.4 points a game on the highway.

I really like the Oklahoma City trio of Jeff Green, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. These guys went into Phoenix on Wednesday and scored 74 points in the 117-113 win over the Suns with Durant leading the way with 38 points.

The Bobcats are on ATS slides of 1-7 against Northwest Division teams and 4-12 when they get three or more days of rest. Meanwhile, the Thunder are on ATS runs of 7-3 against the Eastern Conference, 5-1 as a home favorite and 5-0 when they get two days off.

Lay the chalk and play the Thunder!

4? OKLAHOMA CITY








Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Atlanta Hawks -6.5

Atlanta is 20-8 SU & ATS on the season and I'll back it here against a Pacers team that is really struggling. Atlanta already owns an 11-point win over the Pacers this season and it will be hungry here after getting mopped up by Denver last game. In fact, plays on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are outscoring opponents by 3+ points/game, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more, are 31-8 ATS the last 5 seasons. Take the Hawks.




LT Profits

Boston College vs USC

The USC Trojans are coming off of the worst season in the Pete Carroll era, and one has to question their enthusiasm for this minor bowl vs. the Boston College Eagles after uncharacteristically showing signs of quitting late in the year.

The Trojans went 1-6 against the spread in their last seven games while incredibly allowing 32.5 points per game in the six non-covers. Furthermore, even the game they did cover during this stretch was deceptive, as they had just a 14-7 lead over UCLA until scoring two touchdowns in the final 1:30 of the game, accounting for the 28-7 final, including inexplicably throwing a 48-yard touchdown pass with 44 seconds left.

As if that is not bad enough, that lackadaisical USC attitude has spread to the classroom, and as a result, the Trojans will be short at least three starters here due to academic problems. Additionally, one other starter is definitely out with injury (safety Josh Pinkard), and starting wide receiver David Ausberry is questionable at best with a leg injury. Just about the only good news may be that running back Joe KcKnight may have barely avoided suspension.

While USC appears to be indifferent and in disarray, Boston College went a surprising 8-4 this year and they are thrilled to have this opportunity to knock off a marquee program. The Eagles also match up well with the Trojans defensively, as BC allowed only 19.4 points per game during the regular year, surrendering just 3.0 yards per rush and 6.2 yards per pass attempt. This unit can give the young USC skill position players fits.

Finally, do not forget that ACC underdogs have gone an incredible 25-8-1, 75.8 percent in Bowls since 2000, and that Boston College had won eight straight bowl games before losing by two points to Vanderbilt this year. They may or may not start a new streak here, but we do not see BC losing by more than a field goal.

Pick: Boston College +7





Stephen Nover

San Antonio -2' at MILWAUKEE

Nailed Friday's free play on the Heat outright at New York. For Saturday, I've got a comp play on the Spurs-Bucks game.

The Bucks were riding high when they played the Spurs for the first time this season. Milwaukee was 9-3 at the time, its best start since 2001-02.

But San Antonio crushed Milwaukee at home, winning 112-88 on Nov. 23. Since then, the Bucks have gone 3-12.

Milwaukee has lost its last three games at the Bradley Center. The Bucks traditionally play San Antonio tough, covering eight of the past 10 times. However, this is bad timing for Milwaukee.

The veteran Spurs have had two full days of rest. They are off a shocking home loss to severely banged-up Portland in which they were bet up to double-digit favorites. So the Spurs won't be taking Milwaukee lightly. This is an important game for them.

The Spurs out-rebounded the Bucks, 46-29, in their earlier meeting. They held hotshot rookie guard Brandon Jennings to 12 points on 6-of-21 shooting from the floor. The Spurs won that matchup without Manu Ginobili, who is back playing.

Jennings had a hot first month, but has tallied off badly since them. His scoring average has gone down six points from 25 points to 19 during the past 15 games.

The Spurs currently rank ninth in defense giving up less than 97 points per game. The Bucks are averaging just 89.5 points in their last four games.

2? SAN ANTONIO






Jeff Benton

Boston College vs. USC -7, at San Francisco

For Saturday’s free play, I’ll head to the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco and play USC minus the points against Boston College.

I wouldn’t recommend the Trojans, even for a free play, if this was one of Pete Carroll’s more veteran squads, one that would undoubtedly be down in the dumps to be playing in the Emerald Bowl on Dec. 26 instead of a marquee January bowl game. But this year, Carroll’s squad is very young and very raw, and I fully expect that he’s informed his troops that this game is essentially a tryout for next year. In a nutshell, I think Carroll will dangle some pretty big carrots in front of his players to ensure they show up for this game motivated and determined to carry on the pride USC tradition.

Assuming that’s an accurate assessment, USC will destroy Boston College, because athlete for athlete, this is a huge mismatch. As it stands, the Eagles’ four losses came against the four best teams it faced (Clemson, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame and North Carolina), and three of those were doubled-digit blowouts by an average of 23.3 points per game. The other was a 20-16 loss at Notre Dame. Well, USC went to Notre Dame a week earlier and won 34-27 (and they were leading 34-13 in the fourth quarter).

The Trojans have always come to play in bowl games, winning and covering in six of eight since Carroll took over. That includes winning the last three Rose Bowls (over Penn State, Illinois and Michigan) by a combined score 119-49.

Bottom line, this pointspread is a reflection of two things: 1) USC tailback Joe McKnight’s status is in doubt because of an eligibility issue, and 2) many believe the Trojans have no desire to be in this game. My response to both topics: McKnight is special, but he’s replaceable, especially against a mediocre squad like Boston College, and I don’t agree with the assessment that USC will pull a no-show today. They never have in a bowl game since Carroll took over, losing only the 2005 national title game in the final seconds to Texas 41-38 and the 2001 Las Vegas Bowl (in Carroll’s second season) 10-6 to Utah. The Trojans’ six bowl wins under Carroll? All of them routs by at least two TDs with an average victory margin of 21.8 ppg.

8? USC






Dominic Fazzini

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh -2 at Charlotte, N.C.

I underrated the influence USC point guard Mike Gerrity was going to have Friday night as the Trojans took control early and hammered UNLV 67-56, sticking me with a loss on my complimentary selection. But I'm still 45-31 over the past 76 days, including a run of 28-18, and I will rebound today with a big winner!

Pittsburgh has two top-notch players leading its offense with all-Big East quarterback Bill Stull and running back Dion Lewis, the conference's offensive player of the year.

Yes, North Carolina ranked sixth in the nation in total defense (267.8 ypg) this year, including ninth against the run and 15th against the pass. But I believe the Panthers, who averaged 33.2 points per game have enough offensive talent, with six players being named all-conference, to put up enough points today to come away with a relatively easy victory.

Tar Heels QB T.J. Yates has been very inconsistent this year, throwing 12 passes and 14 interceptions, and he was the 10th-rated passer in the ACC. And UNC's top rusher, Ryan Houston, only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, and cracked 100 yards just once this season, gaining 164 against a mediocre Duke team on Nov. 7. He didn't have more than 76 in any other game.

The Panthers are tough on defense, too, ranking 26th in the nation (323.9 ypg).

Pitt lost three games by a combined 11 points this year, including a 45-44 gut-wrenching loss to Cincinnati in the final minute that decided the Big East championship. But even with that defeat, I think Panthers coach Dave Wannstedt will have his team up for this game, as he has preached to his team that a win would make it the first Pitt squad to win 10 games in a season since Dan Marino led the Panthers to an 11-1 record in 1981.

Many of the ATS trends favor the Tar Heels today, but I just think Pitt has more talent and enough motivation to win this game. Take the Panthers to win by a touchdown or more.

3? P







Chuck O'Brien

Take Ohio and lay the field goal in its Little Caesars Pizza Bowl against Marshall.

Much more interested in siding with the 9-4 Bobcats over the 6-6 Thundering Herd, as Ohio is in enjoying one of its finest seasons in school history and coming off an appearance in the Mid-American Conference championship game, while Marshall stumbled to the finish line in the mediocre Conference USA.

The Bobcats, who can tie a school record for victories in a season with a win today, split their first four games, but two came against quality opponents UConn (23-16 at home) and Tennessee (34-23 on the road), and both those squads are playing in really good bowl games. After the 2-2 start, Ohio ripped off seven wins in eight games to earn the MAC East Division title and a date with Central Michigan in the MAC championship game. Although the Bobcats, who were really banged up, lost that contest 20-10 – and make no mistake, Central Michigan was head and shoulders the class of the MAC this year – they covered as a 13½-point underdog. Thus, Ohio enters this game having cashed in nine of its last 11 games, including the last four in a row.

Marshall ended the regular season losing five of eight games, failing to cover in the final three. Four of the five losses came against opponents – East Carolina, West Virginia, Central Florida and Southern Miss – that went bowling this year (and both Central Florida and Southern Miss already got destroyed in their two bowls). Meanwhile two of the three wins came against Conference USA bottom-feeders UAB and Tulane.

Ohio has the better offense (25.4 ppg) than Marshall (21.8 ppg) and the better defense (21.3 ppg allowed) than Marshall (24.9 ppg allowed). And while the Bobcats have covered in seven of nine overall and seven of nine non-conference games, the Thundering Herd are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 outside of Conference USA and 1-4 ATS in their last five against MAC opponents. Ohio, much healthier now than in the MAC championship game, wins this one by at least a touchdown.

4? OHIO






Tony Weston

Brutal call on the Lakers yesterday as the Cavs take care of business in Los Angeles.

I’m redeeming myself today as I’m taking Pitt over North Carolina in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

Coming into this game Pitt might very well have been one of the most underrated teams in the country, sitting at 9-3 SU.

The Panthers lost their 3 games by a combined 11 points, with that final loss coming by a point against undefeated Cincinnati, which will be playing in a BCS bowl game.

Consider that Pitt has gone 5-3 ATS its last 8 games and has covered in 7 of its last 10 games overall when installed as a favorite.

The Panthers will get over again tonight and cruise to an easy victory over North Carolina.

3? PITTSBURGH

goldengreek
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[GoBlue]

Steve Duemig
Saturday
20 Dime - North Carolina

A few weeks ago, Pitt was looking at playing in a BCS game after possibly winning the Big East. As we know they ended up losing a heart breaker to Cincinnatti late in the game in a gut wrenching Pitt end of season loss. Hard to imagine them being excited about going to Charlotte to play in the Meineke, versus being in Miami for the Orange Bowl. NC on the other hand is basically playing a home game and has the defense to stop anything really that Pitt can throw at them. NC really has no offense but time off for bowl practices works wonders with QB's and Yates should take advantage of that extra time. Bowl handicapping key #1 is motivation and doubt very seriously that Pitt has it and we know that NC will have it in front of the home crowd. A battle of two defenses and two former NFL coaches to boot. There is not a lot of respect for the Big East, especially in Bowl games. Go Heels!!

5 Dime - Ohio

Not a game that we will look at too seriously but it is the first game on Saturday so for those looking for small action, this might be the game for you. Interestingly enough there is a little early support for Marshall here even though it is the least bet game on the board. The line has been moved down from the opener of 4.5 to it's current 3, yet the percentage of spread bets are almost exclusively on Ohio. That's the thing about teams involving the MAC and a former Mac team Bookmakers in Vegas are scared to death of Mac money and they tend to move the line and react rather quickly. Ohio certainly has the better team components in this matchup, and the better coaching matchup. Frank Solich has really done a nice job in stabilizing this football program. His team had a lot of injuries when they played against C, Mich in the WAC Championship game. He has them back healthy now including his stud QB Theo Lewis who can do it with his hands and his feet. Marshall is going through the big post season coaching change where the head coach was asked to resign and the new coach is not yet there and they are being coached by an interim coach in Rick Minter, Ohio leads the nation in TO's forced as in 36.. Marshall on the other hand is horrible in taking care of the football. They have a -41 turnover ration. That is too big to look past in this game. I've seen too many teams simply go through the motion when there is an interim coach involved. Let's buck the trend here and go worth the better team and the favorite for a change.

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso 100 unit = North Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel
20* north carolina (cfb)

regular/ marshall (cfb)

[Mr. IWS]

Ats lock
10 nc +1.5
3 usc -7

[Mr. IWS]

TRACE ADAMS

2000* - Ohio Bobcats,

1000* - North Carolina Tar Heels



Marshall comes into this game in disarray, as their 52-21 loss to UTEP was followed by head coach Mark Snyder's resignation. Enter Rick Minter who will coach this game, and that's all, as West Virginia assistant Doc Holliday is slated to be the new head coach at Marshall.

Kinda makes it tough for the Thundering Herd to win this ball game if you ask me. Especially when you consider that Ohio is about as disicplined a football team as you will find. They don't turn the ball over, in fact, the Bobcats are the ones who force the turnover, as OU came up with 36 takeaways this year, with 10 TDs scored by the defense and the special teams.

The Bobcats are healthy once again, and I fully expect their passing game to exploit a Herd pass defense that was ranked down near 100th in the nation in that category.

Ohio's QB Theo Scott is a 5th year senior, so this is his last chance to leave with a good taste in his mouth, and I don't have any issue laying the small chalk with an Ohio team that just played Central Michigan in the MAC title game down to the wire in 20-10 loss, but cover as the dog.

The Bobcats have sold out their allotment of tickets, while sales from the Herd's camp have been less than brisk.

Lay it with Ohio U.

2000? - Ohio University Bobcats

I just gave you the small favorite in Ohio, but did you know that the underdog in this year's bowl games is 5-1 both straight up, and against the spread thus far?

I like those kinds of numbers, and while I am bucking them with the Bobcats, I will support them in this game between North Carolina and Pittsburgh.

I can't get the memory of Pitt's ugly 3-0 loss to Oregon State in last year's bowl game out of my mind. Now I know that the Panthers offense is plenty imrpoved, but North Carolina does have a staunch defense, and I have a feeling with the Tar Heels playing so close to home, they will get the added boost of having the crowd in their corner.

North Carolina is definitely offensively-challenged, but after dropping a 31-30 bowl thriller to West Virginia as the 2 1/2-point dog last year in their bowl game in Charlotte, I have a feeling the Heels will be ready for the win this go'round.

Take any points they are giving with UNC.

1000? - North Carolina Tar Heels

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: 5-1


Marshall over Ohio U by 1

N Carolina over Pittsburgh by 3

Usc over Boston College by 6

[Mr. IWS]

THE MAXIMUS REPORT

SOLID PLAY:

Little Caesar's Bowl
Location:* Ford Field - Detroit, MI* (FieldTurf)* Time:* 10:00am EST
EVALUATION:* Breaking down the Little Ceasars Bowl between Marshall (6-6) and Ohio (9-4).

Take OHIO UNIVERSITY BOBCATS -3 vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
This bowl game could be a dud with Marshall playing with a lame duck interim staff, after their head coach Mark Snyder stepped down after a lackluster 6-6 SU record, and this stunned several of the players on the squad, and now defensive coordinator Rick Minter steps in as the interim coach not knowing if he will be retained full time. * This bowl game could be his one and only game as head coach if they lose.* * The Herd will have their leading rusher Darius Marshall back after missing the last two games with a high ankle sprain, and word is he has looked good in practice, and should be 100 percent healthy for this bowl game.* His 1,054 yards along with 11 touchdowns can be a good thing for the Herd, and this could be a problem for Ohio since they have struggled against the run allowing an average of just a hair over 150 yrds a game.** Ohio, on the other hand, is looking for its second 10-win season in its history as an FBS team. The Bobcats last won 10 games in 1968. This is a dramatic turnaround from winning four games a year ago, but we have always known that Frank Solich can coach.* Ohio last lost to Central Michigan in the MAC Championship 10-20 on this same field, and we expect them to show up ready to play in this one.** The Bobcats have only lost 4 games, and those were to UConn in their first game, Tennessee in week 4, Kent St.* on 10/24, and Central Mich in that MAC Championship game.* It's hard to judge whether a team with a lame duck interim coach will be motivated to play, but Ohio has a lot to play for and we think they will be up for their second consecutive game at Ford Field
PROJECTION:*** OHIO* 31*** Marshall* 17

NCAA Football 12/26/09

SOLID PLAY:

Meinke Car Care Bowl
Location:* Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC* (Grass)* Time:* 1:30pm EST
EVALUATION:* Breaking down the Meinke Car Care Bowl between North Carolina (8-4) and Pittsburgh (9-3).

Take NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS +1.5 vs. Pittsburgh Panthers*
These two coaches know each other very well, having been on Jimmy Johnson's coaching staff together for 11 years.* That includes four seasons at Oklahoma State, three at Miami and four with the Dallas Cowboys. There will be some familiarity on the opposing sidelines Saturday, when Butch Davis and Dave Wannstedt square off, but they never met as opposing coaches in the NFL.* If UNC's defensive line can hold up, it should help their linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter to pursue the Panthers' standout running back, Dion Lewis. Robert Quinn is one of the best defensive ends in the country, and he enters the game with 19 tackles for losses of 120 yards and 11 sacks for 94 yards. He also has forced six fumbles and has 15 quarterback hurries.* On the offensive side UNC quarterback T.J. Yates, has had an inconsistent season, but some of that can be attributed to his young receivers and average-at-best pass protection. He enters the bowl game needing 224 yards to reach the 6,000-yard career passing mark. For the season, Yates is 195 of 323 for 1,953 yards, 12 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He'll need to limit the mistakes in this game and help UNC win the turnover battle, but his supporting cast will have to help him out more, too.* For the first time in more than a decade, UNC is making an appearance in back-to-back bowls. Carolina's 16 wins over the last two years are the most by a Tar Heel team since posting 21 victories in 1996 and 1997. The program is changing under Davis, but can it take the next step and gain a postseason win?* UNC has proven it's capable of the upset this season, as it earned wins against No. 14 Virginia Tech and No. 12 Miami. A win over Pittsburgh would give Carolina nine wins for just the 15th time in school history and the first time since 1997.* Pitt has a tendency to find a way to lose (See: Big East title on the line vs. Cincinnati and regular season game against NC State). The Tar Heels will have the edge with Davis on the sidelines, Yates will redeem himself from an inconsistent season, and UNC's defense will once again be the difference. They'll pressure Pittsburgh QB Bill Stull into mistakes and come out on top of a defensive game.** The crowd should be pro Tarheel and we expect this to give them a slight advantage in the motivation department.
Projection:* ** North Carolina* 23***** Pittsburgh 20

NCAA Football 12/26/09

BEST BET:

Emerald Bowl

Location:* AT & T Park- San Francisco, CA* (Grass)* Time:* 7:00pm EST

TAKE USC TROJANS -7 vs. Boston College Eagles.

EVALUATION:* Breaking down the Emerald Bowl between No. 24 USC (8-4) and Boston College (8-4).
This game comes down to one thing, which USC quarterback named Matt Barkley will show up.* The one that led a game-winning drive in the waning moments at Ohio State on Sept. 12, or the one who looked like an overmatched true freshman quarterback in their . The Trojans offense sputtered down the stretch, and Barkley ended seventh in the Pac-10 in passing efficiency, with 12 interceptions and only 13 touchdowns. If Barkley reclaims his steady, heady self from the first half of the season, which means getting the ball into the hands of his playmakers and avoiding risky throws, the Trojans offense should * have no problem matching the smooth-running unit that scored 106 points against California, Notre Dame and Oregon State.** Most people think the Trojans will come out flat and uninspired because: 1. the Emerald Bowl is beneath a team that's played in seven consecutive BCS bowls; 2. the program has been in the news a lot of late for all the wrong reasons, and that will dilute motivation. * Know that BC will show up hungry and unintimidated. * Even without its A-game, which we haven't seen since the first three quarters of the win at Notre Dame, USC might prevail because it's got better players, but a lackluster effort could lead to another embarrassing defeat. * * If the Trojans roll and post an impressive win, it would suggest the program is righting itself and will be back in the Pac-10 and national mix next fall. If they look sloppy and uninspired, folks will start to wonder if the dynasty is truly dead. And keep in mind: While USC has lost four times in the Pac-10 this season, no team outside the conference has beaten USC since the 2005 national championship game. ** The problem we see with BC is that they just haven't got a respectable win away from Alumni Stadium, losing 3 of 5 to Clemson, Va. Tech, and Notre Dame.* Yes they were great at home, but when they traveled they either lost or played bad football and just managed to win.* Away from home the Eagles only scored 7, 14, 16, 14, and 19. ** We are thinking that USC has too much pride to play without fire. The absence of three starters and a reserve due to academics and NCAA issues will hurt, but that might be off-set by a team that was beaten up getting three weeks to rest and heal, mentally as well as physically.* We like the Trojans talent to prevail in this game.
PROJECTION:* USC 31* Boston College13

[Mr. IWS]

THE BOOOOJ

NCAA Football-
10 units on Ohio (-3) over Marshall
10 units on North Carolina (+2) over Pittsburgh
25 units on USC (-7) over Boston College


NCAA Basketball-
15 units on West Virginia (-4) over Seton Hall

[Mr. IWS]

SuperSportsGroup

Saturday Dec 26th

Pizza Bowl 1pm
Ohio has been pretty impressive all year ending with a 9-4 record. Marshall enters the Bowl with a 6-6 record. Ohio is 5-1 on the road and Marshall is 2-4. How then is the line in this game only 3? You can maybe argue that Marshall has had Ohio number in the past but after seeing this Ohio team play this year, we think this line is a mistake. If its a sucker bet, then call us suckers. We are laying the points with Ohio
PICK: Ohio -3 Game (9*) Best Bet of the day


Car Care Bowl 4:30pm
PICK: North Carolina +1.5 Game (8*)

Emerald Bowl 8pm
PICK: UNDER 45 Game (4*)
PICK: USC -7 Game (7*)

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Fargo’s **ALL ACCESS** NBA SATURDAY *TRIPLE PLAY*

This game reminds me a lot of the Golden St./New Orleans game on Wednesday. New Jersey is horrible and currently playing some bad basketball so this is a good time to back the Nets. Just like taking the Warriors then, we are buying low tonight as this line is severely inflated yet the public is riding it out. There are a lot of +10.5 lines out there and just a week ago, the Nets were +12.5 against the Lakers and there is no way the Rockets are only two points worse than the Lakers. Houston is in a horrendous spot here as it is coming off a game in Orlando on Wednesday and has a game at Cleveland tomorrow. Despite losing to the Magic, I do not see the Rockets getting up for this one especially with the Cavaliers on deck. There certainly is not much good to say about New Jersey but winning in the NBA is about winning ugly and it does not get uglier than this. 8* New Jersey Nets

The wrong team is favored here or I should at least say that the Spurs should not be favored as this game should be in the pickem range. San Antonio was favored by eight points in the first meeting at home this season and the venue change should turn this one into a game right around even. Since that game, the Spurs have gone 9-5 while the Bucks have gone 4-11 so the teams have not been on equal ground but the schedule has had a lot to do with it. Also, Milwaukee has had some brutal losses as three of the last four defeats have come by three points or fewer including two one-point losses at home. You cannot ignore the fact that the Spurs are just 3-6 on the road which is a bad record and it also shows that only just over a third of the games have come away from home. The Spurs and the Lakers are the only two teams in the NBA to play fewer than 10 road games on the year. 8* Milwaukee Bucks

The thinking here will be that the Lakers bounce back from that huge loss against Cleveland on Christmas day but I think it is just the opposite. Obviously the Lakers are a great team but that defeat can linger as they were humbled pretty good and if anything, this will be a big letdown the day after. Add to that, Los Angeles is at Phoenix in two days. I played the Kings in their last game and they covered for 48 minutes but the problem is that the game went to overtime which no underdog bettor ever wants to see and Sacramento was outscored 13-0 by the Cavaliers. That can leave a lingering sting but they have had time to get over it and with another marquee team in town, the Kings will be up once again. They are 10-4 at home and they have been solid in these spots, going a percent 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Also, Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in its 13 games this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Sacramento Kings

[Mr. IWS]

MREAST NBA SATURDAY UNDER THE RADAR

The Milwaukee Bucks have been very tough at home vs the good teams in the NBA. They have faced 5 winning teams at home, the Lakers,Blazers,Nuggets,Mavs, and Magic. The results of those 5 games show 2 wins, and 3 losses by a combined 5 points! They have not lost to any of these teams by more than 2 points. The road has not been kind to the Spurs as they enter this one just 3-6. This also fits into what I call the 10/10 system, that says to play on teams revenging a 10 point or greater loss, off a game tey lost by 10 or more as a favorite. This system is now 103-58 ATS the last dozen years in the NBA. The Bucks are the play in this one.

#713 SAN ANTONIO SPURS @ #714 MILWAUKEE BUCKS 8:30PM EST

PLAY PN #714 MILWAUKEE BUCKS +3 -110 FOR 3 UNITS

[Mr. IWS]

ASA

4* North Carolina

[Mr. IWS]

Alex smart goy
10 units UNC + 3

[Mr. IWS]

Fairway Jay

Best Bet: USC -8

Much will be made about USC’s potential lack of motivation for this contest, as the Trojans have been playing in premier bowl games each of the past seven years. Yet playing in their home state with a superior coach and motivator should be enough intangibles for the Trojans to roll. Once the players hit the field, USC will prove their class over what I feel is a much weaker Boston College outfit. USC has faced the superior schedule and offensive and defensive units. While the Trojans’ offense was lackluster at times, they still ran the ball for over 5.0 ypc. Boston College’s defense was solid for much of the year and that could technically keep them within striking distance,however,the offense is going to struggle against USC’s superior speed and strength. Boston College turned the ball over 24 times against less skilled and tal- ented teams and failed to score 20 points in any road contest this season.They also were gashed against their only two quality road opponents; at Clemson and Virginia Tech.The Eagles may be excited to face such a prestigious program but we see this matchup favoring USC across the board and a double-digit victory a likely result

[Mr. IWS]

GREAT LAKES SPORTS

College Football
4* Boston College
3* NORTH CAROLINA

NBA
4* Atlanta
3* New Orleans
3* Milwaukee

[Mr. IWS]

Handicapper: Dock Sports
Sport: College Basketball
Game: West Virginia Mountaineers @ Seton Hall Pirates - Saturday December 26, 2009 3:30 pm
Pick: 1 unit ATS: West Virginia Mountaineers -3 (-110)

#721 Take West Virginia over Seton Hall (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) It is the only game of the day in college basketball and it is the opening of Big East play for these two squads. We will side with the visitor and take advantage of this favorable number. The Hall will enter this game at 9-1 on the year but they have played a schedule full of cupcakes. Their only true test of the season came against Temple and they lost to them at home. West Virginia has played a much more difficult schedule and playing in New Jersey on a holiday weekend is not that tough of an environment. Lay the small wood and watch the money grow in your pocket. Doc’s Sports is one of the best college basketball handicappers in the country and now is the tie to jump on board a handicapper with 38 years of experience.

[Mr. IWS]

Northcoast
3* Pitt
Top-BC
Reg-Marshall

1* Marq---Under in all 3 games

[Mr. IWS]

Seabass (3-4 Bowls)
50 Pitt
50 Ohio over
50 USC
Steam (100) CBB Charlotte
CBB 50 Seton Hall
NBA 50 Sac, 50 Hou, 100 NO

[Mr. IWS]

SAMMY JANKUS

Always play the OTHER SIDE of my game writeups.

Ohio U vs Marshall
3* Marshall +3

What a ridiculous line. A mere three points is a small price to pay for a 9-4 Ohio team that held Central Michigan to just 20 points in the MAC championship game versus a 6-6 squad that doesn’t deserve to be in a bowl game. With Marshall managing only 18 PPG this year against fellow bowlers, I expect Frank Solich’s Bobcats to HAMMER the Herd today – so your play is on MARSHALL.

[Mr. IWS]

Psychic
Private Members Area

12/26

CFB

2 unit Marshall +3
3 unit Southern Cal -7 (best bet)
5 unit Pittsburgh -1.5 (wiseguy)

[Mr. IWS]

Kelso

10 units Ohio

10 units Boston College

[Mr. IWS]

Malinsky
4- Ohio U

4- Pitt

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
4 Unit Play. #721. Take Seton Hall +4 over West Virginia (Saturday @ 3:30pm est).


If you wait on this line, it could go higher. So, just sit tight until game time as this game goes off at 3:30 and by that time, the line should rise a bit more considering this is the only college basketball game featured today and over 76% of the public is on West Virginia, who is the sixth rank team in the country. But, Seton Hall will be ready for this game and by no means is Seton Hall bad. This team is drastically improved this year and is 9-1 overall as compared to West Virginia's 9-0 record. Seton Hall is the same team that went on the road to defeat a top 70 Cornell team by ten points which is actually very tough to do. Their sole loss comes to Temple who is a very good top 20 team. Yes, WVU is 9-0. I'm not knocking that. But, I don't believe this team has been challenged on the road this year. This team has only played one true road game and that was against top 200 Cleveland State and they nearly lost that contest as they barely won by a bucket 80-78. Seton Hall is no top 200 team as this team is a top 40 team in many power rankings and they will undoubtedly be up and ready for this game. I like Seton Hall here with the points and with an outside shot at winning this game outright. After all, if Cleveland State who is about 100 spots higher can hang in inside a bucket, than a solid team like Seton Hall can do the same or catch West Virginia a bit off guard today imo. WVU also comes off a big win over Ole Miss and I think they get a bit blindsided today.

4 Unit Play. #705. Take the Houston Rockets -9 over the New Jersey Nets (Saturday @ 7:30pm est). I'm not the type of fellow to lay the points here, and on top of that, on the road, but statistically, this wager makes sense. Bear in mind that Houston comes off a loss to Orlando and this team is certainly irked about that. This team is 17-12 and one of the best bounce-back teams in the league as it relates to covering the spread. Remember, this team is 6-4 over its last ten games. Over the last four times they have lost, they have come back to cover. For example, this team lost to Portland on the road, then came back home to win outright over the Cavs by 10 the next game. This team lost to Toronto at home on the road, then came back home to beat Detroit by 11 covering the spread again. This team lost to Denver on the road, then came went on the road to defeat Dallas outright in overtime. And, this team lost to Orlando most recently and now face a New Jersey Nets team who they have defeated and covered in their last six times since 2007. In short, these Rockets are 6-0 ATS over their last six games against these Nets and I suspect that they will have a strong chance of bouncing back here with renewed focus. These guys do not take many plays off as with veteran leadership such as Battier, Scola, Hayes and with young guns such as Brooks and Ariza, this team has plenty of talent to do well today. Note, that the Nets lost to the Jazz by 16 at home, the Lakers by 19 at home and Golden State by 16 at home, so I can see the Rockets winning by double-digits at New Jersey as well.
Good luck,
IC

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

Sacramento +5.5

The Kings host the Lakers in a great sport for Sacramento Saturday night at Arco Arena. The Lakers enter off last night home showdown against Lebron James and the Cavaliers with a bigger game on deck next at Phoenix knowing they are 6-11 ATS on the Saturday night road off a Friday night home game. That fits perfectly into the fact that the Kings are 5-0 ATS off a loss versus unrested foes this season. The Kings are also 8-1 SU and ATS in in this series when the Lakers played the day before. With Sacramento off a 16-point home loss and 9-4-1 ATS at home, and the Lakers just 2-11 ATS on the road without rest in games before the Suns, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Sacramento.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Feringo NCAAB 12/26/08

0.5-Unit Play. Take #722 Seton Hall (+4) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)

0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 149.5 West Virginia at Seton Hall (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26)


0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #722 Seton Hall (+9) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 26) AND Take ‘Under’ 154.5 West Virginia at Seton Hall (3:30 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

ALL OF NORTHCOAST

NORTHCOAST
3* pittsburgh
top opinion boston college
opinion marshall
marquee ohio under
marquee boston college under
marquee pittsburgh under

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Phoenix / Golden State Under 233.5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":

Phoenix (19-11) is 0-6 on the road since a 113-94 win at Toronto on Nov. 29. The first three losses were by an average of 21.3 points while the last three have been by a total of 10.

The Suns have won four straight against the Warriors, including a 123-101 home victory in the teams’ first meeting this season Oct. 30.

That high-scoring contest, though, pales in comparison to Phoenix’s last visit to Oracle Arena. The Suns ended their four-game losing streak in Oakland with a 154-130 victory March 15.

The 284 combined points were the most in the NBA in 2008-09 and the Suns shot 62.1 % and scored 56 fast-break points, the most since 1997, when the league began to track the stat; that being said, I expect both teams to come into this game with that result in the front of their minds and to play with a much more concerted effort on the defensive end this evening.

Keep in mind as well that the total has gone "under" the posted number in six of the Suns last seven on the road overall. They've also seen the total go "under" the posted number in four of their last five vs. division opponents.

On the other side of the court: The Warriors (7-21) have been hampered by injuries and used seven players in a 108-102 loss at New Orleans in their last game Wednesday.

However, this team is about to receive a big boost on the defensive end this evening as Andris Biedrins is set to return to the lineup; the Warriors have been without the big center-man since Nov. 8, when he aggravated a strained back in Sacramento.

Don Nelson says Anthony Randolph and Vladimir Radmanovic will return to being power forwards, Corey Maggette and Anthony Morrow to being small forwards and C.J. Watson to being a guard.

Remember, the total has gone "under" the number in six of the Warriors last nine overall. They've also seen the total go "under" the number in five of seven games after three or more consecutive SU losses.

Bottom line: Too many factors including an inflated line that all point to the UNDER as being the sharp wager today!

7* UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Tim Trushel

20* CFB Meineke Bowl (21-11 66% CFB Top Plays YTD)
20* North Carolina

10* Marshall

[Mr. IWS]

Spartan 12/26

North Carolina / Pittsburgh

Well guys we are really going against the masses here. At last check nearly 80% of the betting public was beating down the door tripping over one another to get down on the Pitt Panthers. I choose to go the other way here and feel very confident in doing so in what amounts to a home game for Butch Davis and his Tar Heels. Here we have a team in Pitt that just loves to run the ball and with good reason as they have a great freshman tailback in Dion Lewis. However, with that said, North Carolina is stout defending the run themselves. Bill Stull is a capable passer in my view but not a guy who will beat the Heels through the air, I feel the Heels will be effective against the Panthers run game. Key factor for us here will be our need for the Heels to score points and take advantage of every opportunity presented. T.J Yates must manage the game and not turn the ball over, it is imperative he be given a reasonable amount of time to conduct his business. Fact is North Carolina prevailed in 4 of it's last 5 games this season and the defense was the key factor, it will need to be once again here. Pitt has absolutely not been a money maker for bettors lately in Bowls going a poor 0-4 against the number the last four times out. North Carolina is a stellar 7-1 when performing as a dog the last 8. I know I'm in the minority here but I am putting my money on North Carolina to give their fans something to cheer about in Charlotte.Take North Carolina.

[Mr. IWS]

A. Redd

Saturday's Card
20-Dime - Marshall
20-Dime - North Carolina
20-Dime - Southern Cal

[Mr. IWS]

Savannah Sports


Todays Selections

NCAA Bowl Games

3 (***) Boston College +7

1 (*) Pittsburgh Over 45

[Mr. IWS]

charlie

nba. lakers @ sac over 207, ncaaf. pitt @ unc under 45 & ncaaf. usc-7(500* must win or week is free)
ncaaf. ohio-3 (30*)
ncaaf. pitt-1' (20*)
nba. golden st+3' (20*)
nba. atlanta-6' (10*)
nba. dallas-8 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

teddy covers

Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

trophy club nba play

over lakers

[Mr. IWS]

Kb hoops
5* Memphis +8.5 **POD**
5* Philly +7
5* Marshall/Ohio UNDER 48

[Mr. IWS]

Executive

400 Pitt
250 Marshall

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club......
Hoops
4* Phoe
3* Lakers

[Mr. IWS]

EXECUTIVE HOOPS Sat, Dec. 26

3:30 NCAA 300% Seton Hall +4' over W.Virginia
8:00 NBA 250% Minnesota +2' over Washington
9:00 NBA 250% Utah -7 over Philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

Score

400 bc
300 pitt

[Mr. IWS]

Black Widow

6* W ido w W iseg uy BC/USC E mer ald B owl S uref ire on USC -7(+102 at 5dimes)

USC has a chance to set the record for most bowl wins in the history of college football Saturday. Pete Carrol's team will be ready to go knowing this, and they won't let up against Boston College. Hard to see too many Golden Eagle fans making the trip clear out to San Francisco, CA for this bowl game, so the Trojans will clearly have home-field advantage. Boston College is just 2-3 S.U. & 1-4 ATS in road games this season, scoring a miniscule 14.0 points/game. Their offense isn't nearly as explosive as the Trojans, and they won't be able to score enough points to keep up with USC Saturday. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games. USC is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. That adds up to a 16-2 (89%) ATS Angle backing the Trojans. Take USC and lay the points.



5* W iseg uy N B A B oun ce-Ba ck B LOO D B AT H on L.A. Lakers -6(-110 at sportsbook)

After getting embarrassed on Christmas Day in a 15-point loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Lakers take their anger out on the Sacramento Kings tonight. This play also falls under a system that is 31-8 (80%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to back road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, which would be the Lakers here, a team that is outscoring opponents by 3+ points per game coming off a loss by 15 points or more. There's no question that these good teams like the Lakers know how to bounce back from a bad loss. Take the Lakers and lay the points.

[Mr. IWS]

Boston College vs USC USC
-7-105 at bodog
2% from Ethan Law.

[Mr. IWS]

FREDDY WILLS
Kings +7 (3.5 DIME** NBA POD) 16-11-1 ats L28 NBA PODs

The Lakers had a tough game yesterday against the Cavs and now they go on the road to play an uptempo Sacramento team that is hot on 0 days rest. The Lakers are 2-6 in their last 8 on 0 days rest and are 2-4 ATS this year. It comes at a worse situation as the Lakers starters combined for more than 160 minutes they are 0-4 ATS when that happens. I really look for them to struggle here again the last time they were home and then on the road on 0 days rest vs. a fast paced team was Denver and they lost 79-105.
Sacramento is a very good rebounding team and fly under the radar they are 10-4 straight up at home. They just lost to Cleveland at home, but in OT while the Lakers just got man handled by the Cavs. The Kings are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 following a straight up loss by 10+ which they did in OT to the Cavs. They are also 9-1 ATS following an ATS loss. While the Lakers fall under the situation of being on 0 days rest where they by far play their worst defense, the Kings come in on 2 days rest where they are 24-7-1 in their last 32 including 6-0-1 ATS this year where they play their 2nd best defense.

[Mr. IWS]

Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
Don't miss Street's *500 Tomorrow, it will be posted tonight!

*200 North Carolina +1 (NCAAF)
*200 Charlotte Bobcats +6 (NBA)
*200 Chicago Bulls -2 (NBA)
*200 Houston Rockets -8 (NBA)
*200 Phoenix Suns -3 (NBA)

[Mr. IWS]

NSA

20* CFB Pittsburgh -1.5
20* CFB USC -7
20* NBA Sacramento +5.5
10* CFB Ohio -3
10* NBA Phoenix @ Golden St OVER 233.5
10* CBB West Virginia -3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Doc's NBA

4-Unit Play #706 Take New Jersey +9 Over Houston (7:35 p.m. EST, Saturday)
3-unit Play #708 Take Chicago -2 ½ Over New Orleans (8 p.m. EST, Saturday)
3-Unit Play #716 Take Utah -7 Over Philadelphia (9 p.m. EST, Saturday)

[Mr. IWS]

King Creole | NBA Total Sat, 12/26/09 - 10:05 PM Æ’Å*

dime bet 717 LAL / 718 SAC Under 209.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
10:05pm ET / Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings
Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

[Mr. IWS]

MARC LAWRENCE
Sacramento +5.5

The Kings host the Lakers in a great sport for Sacramento Saturday night at Arco Arena. The Lakers enter off last night home showdown against Lebron James and the Cavaliers with a bigger game on deck next at Phoenix knowing they are 6-11 ATS on the Saturday night road off a Friday night home game. That fits perfectly into the fact that the Kings are 5-0 ATS off a loss versus unrested foes this season. The Kings are also 8-1 SU and ATS in in this series when the Lakers played the day before. With Sacramento off a 16-point home loss and 9-4-1 ATS at home, and the Lakers just 2-11 ATS on the road without rest in games before the Suns, we'll grab the points here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Sacramento.

[Mr. IWS]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

NHL Total Sat, 12/26/09 - 7:05 PM Æ’Å*

double-dime bet 11 MON / 12 TOR Under 6.0 bodog
Analysis: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this matchup is on the "under":

Undefeated so far on a season-high seven-game road trip, the Canadiens look to avenge one of their worst losses of the season Saturday night against thei€r Original Six rival.

Montreal (18-18-3) is 2-1-0 against Toronto (13-17-8) this season, but lost the last matchup 3-0 at home Dec. 1 as rookie Jonas Gustavsson and journeyman Joey MacDonald combined to make 26 saves. It was the third time the Canadiens have been shut out this season.

Jaroslav Halak has given up a total of four goals while starting each of the last three games; Halak made 46 saves against the Hurricanes, one short of the career high he set in a 4-3 overtime win over the Thrashers on Monday. He’s 2-1-0 with a 2.33 goals-against average in three games at Toronto.

On the other side of the rink: The Maple Leafs have been held to two goals or fewer in four straight contests, and are 1-3-1 after winning eight of their previous 11. Toronto is coming off its fourth straight road loss, 3-1 against the New York Islanders on Wednesday night.

Expect another lack-luster offensive performance tonight.

Also, keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of the Leafs last six at home overall.

Bottom line: I expect the Canadiens to continue to play well (even if Carey Price gets the nod tonight) and for Toronto's offensive issues to once again rear its ugly head; when also taking into account these O/U trends, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!

[Mr. IWS]

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: On the bay
Posts: 273

Default
KING CREOLE

CFB Total Sat, 12/26/09 - 8:00 PM Æ’Å*

double-dime bet 217 Boston College / 218 Southern Cal Under 46.0 bodog
Analysis:
8:00pm ET / EMERALD BOWL / USC Trojans vs BOSTON COLLEGE Eagles
2** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

Put the USC Trojans in a PRE-New Years Day Bowl... and they don't give a s**t. For you ATS fans, we note that USC has played EIGHT pre-New Years Day Bowl games. They have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATs in this game! Also, we note that they have gone a PERFCT 0-4 O/U in these games in the last 14 seasons. Sharp players already know that the Trojans are 'trending UNDER' as of late. USC has gone 13-28-1 O/U as favorites in the last 4 seasons. Also 6-17 O/U after allowing < 100 yards rushing in their last game. Meanwhile, the EAGLES of Boston College are 1-6 O/U as underdogs of 3 to 10 points... a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in their last 5 NON-conference games... and 1-4 O/U in Neutral site games.

In our database collection, we have created an Over / Under set for ALL Bowl games played on the SATURDAY after Christmas. And these games have also 'trended UNDER' in the last few years. 70% UNDER to be exact in the last 4 seasons. And when the OU Line is LESS than 50 points in these games, the results are 1-6 O/U.

USCs defense is not anywhere the dominant unit like they have been. But this is still a good defense, and they put up respectable defensive numbers vs. high powered offenses in the Pac-10. They should be able to contain BC. Trojans gave up single digits 5 times. 3 of those 5 teams were AZ State, UCLA, and Cal. You'll notice, I compared UCLA AND AZ State to Boston College.

USC's defense had a couple of bad games where their defensive stats got messed up. Those were games against big time offenses like Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State giving up 55, 47, and 36. Notre Dame has a pretty good offense they scored 27. Arizona's offense is okay, they scored 21. All of these offenses are much better than Bo~ston College's.

Considering the way BCs offense played down the stretch and how USC has shut down poor offenses, I think it may be tough for BC to hit the 17 point mark, or it will be very close.

I think best case scenario: USC scores around 24 and best case scenario BC scores around 17. That is a best case scenario score of 41, with a total set for 45 basically.

With USC having offensive suspensions, and a freshman QB, they shouldn't all of the sudden click and go off offensively. And with BC struggling to score down the stretch, having a freshman QB themselves, and traveling to the west coast, they shouldn't all of the sudden click and fire on all cylinders.

Neither of these freshman have done anything to suggest that they will get their teams and offenses to fire vs. opposing good defenses. Both teams have inconsistencies. It just looks like this may be an ugly, sloppy game

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock Club

4 Units Suns

3 Units Lakers

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CFB Side
free pick 215 North Carolina 1.0 (-110) BetUS vs 216 PittsburghAnalysis: ** NCAAFB FREE BOWL PICK **
Unfortunately...the Betting Syndicates beat me to the "move"...and went ahead and Bought-Up all of the +3 that was available on UNC for this afternoon's Meineke Car Care Bowl...
Now many times, I will still go ahead and take a position after the books have had a chance to adjust for "Steam"...because I feel that there is still plenty of Value...
But in this spot...the Wiseguys took the kind of Value that I still need to make an Official Bet...
With that said...I will definitely be using UNC +1 on a handful of "courtesy bets" for Saturday's Action...Best of Luck, VR...

[Mr. IWS]

vegas-runner | CFB TotalSat, 12/26/09 - 4:30 PM ¾~
double-dime bet215 North Carolina / 216 Pittsburgh UNDER 46.0 Bodog
Analysis: ** NCAAFB 2* "PRI ME-TIME" PERSONAL PLAY **


vegas-runner | CFB TotalSat, 12/26/09 - 8:00 PM ¾~
triple-dime bet217 Boston College / 218 Southern Cal OVER 45.0 Bodog
Analysis:
*** NCAAFB 3* "PRIME-TIME" BOWL BOMB ***

We are really getting some excellent betting value on the OVER...Due to "Public Perception", which is based on all the attention that the Defenses are getting for BOTH of these teams coming into this Bowl Game...And because of that, we are able to get a very fair Total to go Over...Which according to my "True Line", is almost "6" Points to o low...Bottom Line, this USC Defense has allowed some points this season...and in 5 of their L/7 games, we've seen teams them allow 27, 36, 47, 55, & 21...And although the BC Defense has looked good all season, given time to prepare...I expect Caroll to have this Trojan Offense ready to put some points on the board...So let's go ahead and bet this game OVER 45, and see if we can get some points from BOTH teams...and cash this BIG BOMB...VR

[Mr. IWS]

DREW GORDON

Boston College +7' vs USC at San Francisco, CA

26-16-2 roll L44 Free Plays! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Boston College/Southern California match up.

For a powerhouse like Southern California, the Emerald Bowl is an insult. It's not even a January Bowl game, and quite frankly, I believe the Trojans could care less about this match up or Boston College... This is not what the coach Carroll's "5? recruits" signed up for, plain and simple.

On the other hand, the Eagles had to battle their way into the postseason, and see a real chance at notoreity, if they can pull off what everyone in the world would consider a monumental upset. Boston College surged down the stretch, going 4-2 SU, including road wins at Virginia & Maryland, two tough opponents who needed wins and were playing at home. How did they do it? Using the same formula they're going to use to cover tonight's match up: DEFENSE.

You see, while the Trojans may have the bigger names on defense, its the Eagles stop-unit who's playing better football, allowing just 19 ppg on 284 total yards over their L3 games. For comparisons sake, USC is allowing 27 ppg on 370 total yards over the same span! Boston College's offense is no juggernaut, but they're more than capable of playing a run-heavy/milk the clock kind of game behind stud RB Montel Harris, who's 4.8 yards/carry is no accident! The Trojans D has been getting skewered the L2 months, allowing almost 29 ppg over their L7 games!

Bottom line, time to wake up Trojan-backers... You're team is in a rebuilding year! Matt Barkley has a bright future, but for the time being, you're offense is not good enough to lay this many against a rock-solid Boston College defense that's playing great football right now. In the end, the PAC-10 is down this year and it'll show, as one of their best burns their backers once again (1-6 ATS L/7 games) here tonight.

Take Boston College plus the points over Southern California in this college football match up.

2? BOSTON COLLEGE

[Mr. IWS]

VR

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vegas-runner | NBA TotalSat, 12/26/09 - 10:35 PM ¾~
triple-dime bet719 PHO / 720 GSW OVER 233.5 SportBet
Analysis: *** NBA… 3* "LATE STEAM" BEST BET OF THE DAY **

[Mr. IWS]

trushel
bulls/regular
over nets/regular

[Mr. IWS]

RON RAYMOND’S NBA DOUBLE WINNER BONUS PICKS



Pick # 1 New Orleans Hornets / Chicago Bulls Over 189 -115




Pick # 2 Philadelphia 76ers / Utah Jazz Under 203.5 -110

[Mr. IWS]

EXECUTIVE HOOPS

300% Seton Hall +4' over W.Virginia
8:00 NBA 250% Minnesota +2' over Washington
9:00 NBA 250% Utah -7 over Philadelphia

[Mr. IWS]

MATT FARGO

Fargo’s **ALL ACCESS** NBA SATURDAY *TRIPLE PLAY*This game reminds me a lot of the Golden St./New Orleans game on Wednesday. New Jersey is horrible and currently playing some bad basketball so this is a good time to back the Nets. Just like taking the Warriors then, we are buying low tonight as this line is severely inflated yet the public is riding it out. There are a lot of +10.5 lines out there and just a week ago, the Nets were +12.5 against the Lakers and there is no way the Rockets are only two points worse than the Lakers. Houston is in a horrendous spot here as it is coming off a game in Orlando on Wednesday and has a game at Cleveland tomorrow. Despite losing to the Magic, I do not see the Rockets getting up for this one especially with the Cavaliers on deck. There certainly is not much good to say about New Jersey but winning in the NBA is about winning ugly and it does not get uglier than this. 8* New Jersey Nets


The wrong team is favored here or I should at least say that the Spurs should not be favored as this game should be in the pickem range. San Antonio was favored by eight points in the first meeting at home this season and the venue change should turn this one into a game right around even. Since that game, the Spurs have gone 9-5 while the Bucks have gone 4-11 so the teams have not been on equal ground but the schedule has had a lot to do with it. Also, Milwaukee has had some brutal losses as three of the last four defeats have come by three points or fewer including two one-point losses at home. You cannot ignore the fact that the Spurs are just 3-6 on the road which is a bad record and it also shows that only just over a third of the games have come away from home. The Spurs and the Lakers are the only two teams in the NBA to play fewer than 10 road games on the year. 8* Milwaukee Bucks

The thinking here will be that the Lakers bounce back from that huge loss against Cleveland on Christmas day but I think it is just the opposite. Obviously the Lakers are a great team but that defeat can linger as they were humbled pretty good and if anything, this will be a big letdown the day after. Add to that, Los Angeles is at Phoenix in two days. I played the Kings in their last game and they covered for 48 minutes but the problem is that the game went to overtime which no underdog bettor ever wants to see and Sacramento was outscored 13-0 by the Cavaliers. That can leave a lingering sting but they have had time to get over it and with another marquee team in town, the Kings will be up once again. They are 10-4 at home and they have been solid in these spots, going a percent 9-0 ATS in their last nine games following a double-digit loss. The Lakers meanwhile are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss. Also, Sacramento is 10-3 ATS in its 13 games this season against teams averaging 99 or more ppg. 10* Sacramento Kings


**10** Bowl Game of the Month *82% Angle*
UNC (backed by a 28-6 ATS 82.4% Power Situation)

**9** Emerald Bowl Winner *15-1 Angles*
USC (backed by 15-1 ATS 93.8% Team Angles)

[Mr. IWS]

The Duke's Sports

USC (-7) for 2.5 Units

USC may not be playing in their usual BCS Bowl, but they'll be up for this game. HC Carroll does a great job in getting the most out of his players,especially in big games where Carroll sports a 6-1 ATS mark in bowls, including 5-1 ATS as chalk. And athlete to athlete, USC still has the edge on most teams, including BC,even considering the suspensions. We do realize that the Trojans' defense was shakyfor the latter portion of the season; however, we don't believe BC's offense is explosive enough to put a dent in the Trojan horse. BC QB Shinskie completed just 53% of his passes with 13 INT to 14 TD. USC has an aggressive defensive line and a fast enough secondary to create problems for the Eagles. Offensively, the Trojans will probably have McKnight back and QB Barkley has plenty of weapons to go to. USC the call.