View Full Version : There's no such thing as a perfect line. . .
Anyone agree with this?
It's something I've been thinking about lately. To say that a line is perfect means that the oddsmakers called a fight PERFECTLY.
If there's no such thing as perfect line, that means that all lines hold value. This is a principle that I've kept in mind while betting on 108. That's why I have so many bets on this card.
If that's true then logic would dictate that a corollary to said maxim is that you would be unable to set a perfect line yourself, ergo any value you perceive may or may not actually exist, no?
In terms of betting a fight a perfect line in the eyes of a linesmaker would be a line with exactly 50/50 action so they can jut take the juice.
In terms of sports there are plenty of perfect lines ,anytime a game is a push.
Now are there perfct lines in MMA from the point of a bettor? No
No matter which fight and which line you are looking at theres value in one side or the other you just have to figure out which side that is
Well somewhere, out there in the universe, a perfect line exists.
I mean, there is such a thing as the EXACT percentages by which any two fighters will when the fight given their exact physical and mental state on fight night.
The question is, can you set the perfect line?
Now are there perfct lines in MMA from the point of a bettor? No
No matter which fight and which line you are looking at theres value in one side or the other you just have to figure out which side that is
Exactly.
So I suppose it comes down to how skilled YOU are individually.
But in a very real sense, every line has value on one side or the other.
Well another thing is that the line can never be perfect due to the vig.
Well another thing is that the line can never be perfect due to the vig.
Well even then, theoretically a perfect line could be set.
Now are there perfct lines in MMA from the point of a bettor? No
No matter which fight and which line you are looking at theres value in one side or the other you just have to figure out which side that is
Exactly.
So I suppose it comes down to how skilled YOU are individually.
But in a very real sense, every line has value on one side or the other.
True but my point was if the oddsmakers are unable to set a perfect line, what makes you think you can?
True but my point was if the oddsmakers are unable to set a perfect line, what makes you think you can?
Oh, well 'cause I'm just awesome like that. . .
No, I kid. But seriously, I'm not saying I can, but theoretically it's possible. And in reality, since humans are flawed, every line is flawed.
Well if you abide by the theory that there is no such thing as a perfect line, then there is no such thing as a perfect line. You can't have it both ways.
Trying to find minute value in seemingly wellset lines seems like an exercise in futility.
Well if you abide by the theory that there is no such thing as a perfect line, then there is no such thing as a perfect line. You can't have it both ways.
Trying to find minute value in seemingly wellset lines seems like an exercise in futility.
Don't be negative.
Negative? Or merely frugal?
Yeah I flipped the script on you there. Now who's glass is half full, bitch?
Well somewhere, out there in the universe, a perfect line exists.
I mean, there is such a thing as the EXACT percentages by which any two fighters will when the fight given their exact physical and mental state on fight night.
The question is, can you set the perfect line?
possibly .If you knew every aspect of both fighters and gave each of those aspects a numerica value and then fed it through a simulator around 10,000 times you could find the exact amount of times fighter A would beat fighter B and then could put those numbers to a line
True but my point was if the oddsmakers are unable to set a perfect line, what makes you think you can?
Odds makers arent trying to set a perfect line ,they are trying to set a lin where half the public will be on one side and half will bet the other so they cn pick up the vig
Well another thing is that the line can never be perfect due to the vig.
theres no vig at matchbook most lines are only one cent off
-195
+194
example
Negative? Or merely frugal?
Yeah I flipped the script on you there. Now who's glass is half full, bitch?
Valid point, bitch ass motherfucker.
But I have a feeling that you're feeling slightly burned by some of your losing bets as of late.
True but my point was if the oddsmakers are unable to set a perfect line, what makes you think you can?
Odds makers arent trying to set a perfect line ,they are trying to set a lin where half the public will be on one side and half will bet the other so they cn pick up the vig
That's true, so really oddsmakers are more attempting to predict public opinion than they are the true line of the fight.
True but my point was if the oddsmakers are unable to set a perfect line, what makes you think you can?
Odds makers arent trying to set a perfect line ,they are trying to set a lin where half the public will be on one side and half will bet the other so they cn pick up the vig
Perceived winning percentage is still an enormous factor in line setting.
However, take the case of the Bookmaker openers. They throw them out there first usually, and then adjust quickly when the sharp money comes in. Then the line is generally set well.
That's true, so really oddsmakers are more attempting to predict public opinion than they are the true line of the fight.
Exactly my friend ::handshake::
Thats why ever fight has value on one side or the other
However, take the case of the Bookmaker openers. They throw them out there first usually, and then adjust quickly when the sharp money comes in. Then the line is generally set well.
Is the line really set well or is the public just tired of betting it because it moved so much?
Valid point, bitch ass motherfucker.
But I have a feeling that you're feeling slightly burned by some of your losing bets as of late.
zY, re-reading this I could see how it could come off as insulting. I'm just fucking with you though (and wondering legitimately about how you might possibly be timid after getting burned on some fights). I hope you didn't actually think I was trying to insult you.
http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c171/zygote7/ninja1.gif
If I was insulted, I'd bring the pain.
The more likely answer was that I went to sleep. ::thumbup::
http://i27.photobucket.com/albums/c171/zygote7/ninja1.gif
If I was insulted, I'd bring the pain.
The more likely answer was that I went to sleep. ::thumbup::
Okay, cool.
Sucks you're not making any plays tonight. Why don't you do at least one so you can share in the thrill of victory with me and the Scientist?
I may hop on Cole Miller. I like JDS too but he's far too overpriced now.
I may hop on Cole Miller. I like JDS too but he's far too overpriced now.
The Scientist and I both have Cole.
I probably agree on JDS, but I'll have more to say about that after tonight. If Yvel acts as I think he's going to, then I think JDS is good all the way to -500. But I think the chances are decent that Yvel could surprise me, too.
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