View Full Version : UFC Fight Night 20
The HOFF
01-03-2010, 01:45 PM
Date: Jan 11, 2010
Location: Fairfax, Va.
Venue: Patriot Center on George Mason University campus
Broadcast: Spike TV
MAIN CARD
* Nate Diaz vs. Gray Maynard
* Evan Dunham vs. Efrain Escudero
* Tom Lawlor vs. Aaron Simpson
* Brad Blackburn vs. Amir Sadollah
PRELIMINARY CARD
* Chris Leben vs. Jay Silva
* Jesse Lennox vs. Rick Story
* Nik Lentz vs. Thiago Tavares
* Mike Guymon vs. Rory MacDonald
* Kyle Bradley vs. Rafael dos Anjos
* Gerald Harris vs. Mike Massenzio
* Nick Catone vs. Jesse Forbes
The HOFF
01-03-2010, 01:48 PM
Nate Diaz +270
Gray Maynard -330
Tom Lawlor +200
Aaron Simpspn -240
Evan Dunham +215
Efrain Escudero -255
Brad Blackburn +135
Amir Sadollah -155
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 02:14 PM
I like Dos Anjos/Bradley... hope Dos Anjos comes in at a reasonable price.
Diaz definately has value. Maynard has not faced a submission guy yet.
The HOFF
01-03-2010, 02:22 PM
Diaz definately has value. Maynard has not faced a submission guy yet.
Exactly. I'm pretty sure Nate submitted him on TUF. Maynard looked sub-par against Huerta. I think Diaz will outstrike him on the feet. Maynard will have to take him down. Then Diaz will have the ground game advantage with subs.
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 02:33 PM
Maynard has definately shown improvement, but his big wins are against other wrestlers. I wouldn't be surprised if Maynard outstrikes Nate... but who would take Maynard at these odds?
I don't know if Diaz has the chops to sub him, but it is definately closer than the line. I might toss a unit down on Diaz.
Yeah it's either Nate or nothing for me.
No way I'm paying that much for a guy who lost by submission a few years ago to THE ACTUAL GUY HE'S FIGHTING.
Maynard looked sub-par against Huerta.
No, Huerta's just a bad ass.
I have 3u on Maynard at -300. I think it will be pretty even on the feet. Diaz may land more punches, but Maynard will hit with more power.
On the ground, I think Maynard's going to be strong enough to control Diaz and power out of any sub attempts that get thrown his way. For me, the real selling point for Maynard was watching how Diaz got handled by Guida and Stevenson. I understand that Maynard was subbed by Diaz the first time around, but Brock was subbed my Mir the first time around too, and we saw what happened in the second fight. Fighters improve and I think that Maynard has made a big enough leap since their first fight to warrant a bet even at -300.
Some good points, however...
He'll have Nate AND Nick meanmugging his ass. Do you think Gray can handle the pressure?
Other bets I'm considering, but need to do more research on:
Escudero
Amir
Dos Anjos
Gerald Harris <---!!!!!!
I've also heard from others that Leben may be worth a small play, and maybe Rick Story, too. Gotta learn more about their opponents.
Some good points, however...
He'll have Nate AND Nick meanmugging his ass. Do you think Gray can handle the pressure?
Hmm. . .
You have now caused doubt to enter my mind.
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 03:25 PM
I was thinking about Efrain... convince me he is gonna beat Dunham.
I want to bet against Dunham, he looks exactly like a guy I wrestled with in high school, who I could not stand. I just want to see Evan get his stupid look-alike face smashed.
I was thinking about Efrain... convince me he is gonna beat Dunham.
I want to bet against Dunham, he looks exactly like a guy I wrestled with in high school, who I could not stand. I just want to see Evan get his stupid look-alike face smashed.
Let me watch some fights on Dunham and review some stuff from Efrain and I'll give you some thoughts.
It's possible the value's been bet out of the line. That's my biggest concern. I know Efrain opened at -185. Where it's at now may be closer to what it really should be.
One of the biggest problems with guys recently out of TUF like Efrain is that there's not a whole lot of info to go on. I mean, he's only had two actual UFC fights, and really only one when talking about guys who are already established in the organization.
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 03:47 PM
What about Amir, I don't know Blackburn.
Gerald has been doing well, but hasnt really fought anyone. Massenzio is a bjj guy, wasn't gerald subbed by Amir on TUF? Gerald recently beat Nissen Osterneck, which should have a lot to say about this fight. Osterneck is a bjj guy too (but not as good as Massenzio)... did you see that fight?
If Gerald has evolved into a guy who uses his wrestling to keep it standing, I would be happier... but I don't know because I have not seen him fight.
What about Amir, I don't know Blackburn.
I don't know Blackburn either . . . but I intend to get to know him!
I know he's 15-9, so he's not really setting the world on the fire. His biggest win is over Jay Hieron in the IFL, which is respectable.
Gerald has been doing well, but hasnt really fought anyone. Massenzio is a bjj guy, wasn't gerald subbed by Amir on TUF? Gerald recently beat Nissen Osterneck, which should have a lot to say about this fight. Osterneck is a bjj guy too (but not as good as Massenzio)... did you see that fight?
If Gerald has evolved into a guy who uses his wrestling to keep it standing, I would be happier... but I don't know because I have not seen him fight.
Gerald lost to Amir via a TKO that wasn't really a TKO. In fact, he jumped up and ran around screaming "I was not out!" Justifiably so, in my opinion . . . terrible stoppage.
I did see the Osterneck fight . . . all 46 seconds of it. He just went out there and KOd him. It was fast. My guess is that he had a new Playstation game at home that he really wanted to play.
The dude has great slams, stong wrestling, and true KO power. He only has two losses (both in '07): he was TKOd by Benji Radach and lost a split to some dude I've never heard of. He has never been subbed.
I need to go watch some Massenzio fights before I can do a more thorough analysis, but I do remember his fight with CB and I think that if CB can avoid his subs and TKO him then Gerald Harris can definitely do it.
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 04:27 PM
For some reason I though Amir armbarred him. I didn't realize he had any standup. I am gonna watch his fights on youtube.... I might ride with you on Gerald (depending on the line of course).
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 04:41 PM
Well, I did a little research. For some reason I thought Gerald was a collegiate wrestler... I dont think he was. Massenzio is a bjj covert. He was a national champion in wrestling in HS, and Juco champ, i thought he was a butt flopper... He might still get KO'd by Harris, but I am out on that one. Powerful guys like Gerald don't know what to do when they get controlled. Massenzio is an all around grappler. I thought this was a grappler/grappler match, but it looks more like grappler/striker. I am sitting that fight out. Good chance Gerald gets taken down and controlled, even if he doesn't get subbed.
Well, I did a little research. For some reason I thought Gerald was a collegiate wrestler... I dont think he was. Massenzio is a bjj covert. He was a national champion in wrestling in HS, and Juco champ, i thought he was a butt flopper... He might still get KO'd by Harris, but I am out on that one. Powerful guys like Gerald don't know what to do when they get controlled. Massenzio is an all around grappler. I thought this was a grappler/grappler match, but it looks more like grappler/striker. I am sitting that fight out. Good chance Gerald gets taken down and controlled, even if he doesn't get subbed.
From his bio on Spike:
"Harris has always been athletic - he wrestled all throughout college and even played semi-pro football."
Doesn't go into any more detail than that, but I think his base is wrestling, not striking. Have you see him slam someone? It's like the second coming of Slampage.
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 07:08 PM
Well, I did a little research. For some reason I thought Gerald was a collegiate wrestler... I dont think he was. Massenzio is a bjj covert. He was a national champion in wrestling in HS, and Juco champ, i thought he was a butt flopper... He might still get KO'd by Harris, but I am out on that one. Powerful guys like Gerald don't know what to do when they get controlled. Massenzio is an all around grappler. I thought this was a grappler/grappler match, but it looks more like grappler/striker. I am sitting that fight out. Good chance Gerald gets taken down and controlled, even if he doesn't get subbed.
From his bio on Spike:
"Harris has always been athletic - he wrestled all throughout college and even played semi-pro football."
Doesn't go into any more detail than that, but I think his base is wrestling, not striking. Have you see him slam someone? It's like the second coming of Slampage.
I haven't been able to find any info on him wrestling. Wrestling "throughout college" could mean a lot of things. He proabbly stayed active on the freestyle circuit at the espoir and university levels... but that is quite a bit different than wrestling in college. It certainly looks like his base is wrestling, but I think he is probably going to get out wrestled by Massenzio, if it comes to that.
I haven't been able to find any info on him wrestling. Wrestling "throughout college" could mean a lot of things. He proabbly stayed active on the freestyle circuit at the espoir and university levels... but that is quite a bit different than wrestling in college. It certainly looks like his base is wrestling, but I think he is probably going to get out wrestled by Massenzio, if it comes to that.
Maybe I don't understand what you mean by "wrestling in college" then. To me, that is participating in the sport of wrestling while enrolled in college.
I haven't been able to find any info on him wrestling. Wrestling "throughout college" could mean a lot of things. He proabbly stayed active on the freestyle circuit at the espoir and university levels... but that is quite a bit different than wrestling in college. It certainly looks like his base is wrestling, but I think he is probably going to get out wrestled by Massenzio, if it comes to that.
Maybe I don't understand what you mean by "wrestling in college" then. To me, that is participating in the sport of wrestling while enrolled in college.
I wrestled alot in college but it was usually with little tan blondes
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 07:34 PM
Well, he could have wrestled on a club team, or he could have just entered local tourneys. Anyone can enter a local tourney, and a lot of former HS wrestlers do it while in college, just for fun or if they didnt get enough in HS. It is experience, but it is akin to entering the local bjj tourney with 3 guys in your weightclass. I don't know that is what he did, but I don't see any record of him wrestling on a college team...
triathlete
01-03-2010, 08:46 PM
I wrestled alot in college but it was usually with little tan blondes
Haha... what was your final record?
triathlete
01-03-2010, 08:58 PM
So, here's a research question.
As I start betting on some of the Fight Night and WEC fights, I'm going to need to do a little more research on some of the lower card fighters that I know nothing about, which would be most of them.
What sort of research methods do you employ? Do you watch film? Do you have a spreadsheet with numbers assigned to fighters? Or is it just gut feeling? I'm going to try to make another 5 picks on the WEC and FN cards.
Thx,
3
^^^ First off, you're dealing with two different animals here.
Fight Night's are going to be easier than WECs, precisely because UFC videos are much easier to find online than WEC videos. It's odd, because both are owned by Zuffa, but WEC videos get pulled down due to copyright infringement MUCH faster than UFC videos do. I don't know if maybe this has something to do with whoever owns the Versus channel or what. My solution has been to download all the WECs I can find. (Gotta give props to zY for inspiring me to do this.) Now if I need to look up a fight then I can (hopefully) just pull it up from my hard drive. This still isn't much help for a lot of the lesser known WEC fighters though because the prelims often aren't aired so in that case I'm still out of luck.
As for my actual process, I have a loose system that I follow:
1. I look up each fighters reacords and pay particular attention to who they've won against and who they've lost against. A lot of fighters may have good records, but you'll notice that any time they've fought a good fighter who has a name you'd have heard of, they lost. If the guy they're going to be fighting is in the same tier as the guys they've consistently lost to, then that's a good sign they'll probably lose this one, too. It's also good to note if they have had any common opponents and, obviously, if they've fought each other before.
2. I watch 3 to 5 recent videos for each other. I try to watch both wins and losses. I try to keep it varied. If they have wins/losses via KO or sub, then I try to make sure to watch at least one of each. I also like to watch some footage of their wins/losses via decision. How did they win? How did they lose? Was it close or did they dominate their opponent/get dominated? It's especially important to watch vids of fights they've had where they're opponents were very similar in style to the guy in the upcoming bout. I mean, if they have a habit of getting LnP'd en route to decision losses and the guy they're about to be fighting is a strong wrestler, then you know there's probably a lot of value in the other guy.
3. I try to see the fight play out in my head. I literally try to watch a mental video and see how it goes down.
4. Based upon all these factors, I try to assign what I believe is the true line and bet accordingly.
I've thought about trying to get even more scientific about it and even coming up with certain categories like "striking," "KO power," "wrestling," "takedown defense," etc. and then assigning number values to them as well as some other ideas but I haven't taken it that far yet.
Anyway, hope that helps.
triathlete
01-03-2010, 09:38 PM
It absolutely does. I've watched a few videos already - I figured the process would entail that - but I'm not quite sure how to "watch" the videos. Absolutely makes sense - now.
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 09:40 PM
^^^
This is pretty much what I do. I just look at the card, and see what fights jump out like "oh he is gonna win that." Then I look up records and see what style matchups are similar in past opponents. Then I watch some video clips of the facets that I have questions about
For example, I am trying to decide whether to place a bet on Aaron Simpson right now. So I look at Lawlor, what problems does he present. Basically Lawlor is a wrestler/grappler, similar to Dan Miller or Amtt Hughes. Better on top, but has some bottom subs. So I looked at the CB Dolloway fight. This is the only better wrestler Lawlor has defeated. He Subbed him with a guillotine. All of Lawlor's other subs and wins have come from the top position. So the next step is to check Simpson's defense. I looked at Herman, who is similar to Lawlor, just not as good with the all around grappling. Right now, I am looking at his fight with Avellan, who is a jiu jitsu fighter. What was his strategy? Was he threatened? If I am satisfied with his sub defense, I will bet on him. This is the key to that fight, IMO.
I also look for fights where there is a natural state... and then try to eliminate fights where there are a lot of variables. I like fights where it is clear what the battle will be, not fights where the fightt changes if a fighter employs a different strategy.
MMA_scientist
01-03-2010, 09:41 PM
Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.
I'm
50% videos
40% gut
10% records/motivation
It absolutely does. I've watched a few videos already - I figured the process would entail that - but I'm not quite sure how to "watch" the videos. Absolutely makes sense - now.
Glad I could help. Just be smart about it. Understand how fights are won and remember that styles make fights.
triathlete
01-03-2010, 10:04 PM
Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.
You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...
..but it is another opportunity..
I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).
I think I'm going to follow that logic and just bet on UFC for now. I'll have to get to researching... have a week. ::clover::
3
^^^
This is pretty much what I do. I just look at the card, and see what fights jump out like "oh he is gonna win that." Then I look up records and see what style matchups are similar in past opponents. Then I watch some video clips of the facets that I have questions about
For example, I am trying to decide whether to place a bet on Aaron Simpson right now. So I look at Lawlor, what problems does he present. Basically Lawlor is a wrestler/grappler, similar to Dan Miller or Amtt Hughes. Better on top, but has some bottom subs. So I looked at the CB Dolloway fight. This is the only better wrestler Lawlor has defeated. He Subbed him with a guillotine. All of Lawlor's other subs and wins have come from the top position. So the next step is to check Simpson's defense. I looked at Herman, who is similar to Lawlor, just not as good with the all around grappling. Right now, I am looking at his fight with Avellan, who is a jiu jitsu fighter. What was his strategy? Was he threatened? If I am satisfied with his sub defense, I will bet on him. This is the key to that fight, IMO.
I also look for fights where there is a natural state... and then try to eliminate fights where there are a lot of variables. I like fights where it is clear what the battle will be, not fights where the fightt changes if a fighter employs a different strategy.
Good stuff here. Lots of good thoughts.
So what was your conclusion? Is there value in Lawlor or are you going with A-Train?
You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...
Every dog has his day. Serra/GSP I will always and forever remind us of this.
..but it is another opportunity..
This is how I look at it. Every fight is an opportunity because someone has to win.
I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).
I also hope to either do this fulltime or at least turn it into a significant side income, and I think that it's a mistake to restrict yourself solely to UFC. If you want to maximize your earning potential, then you have to look at all the big orgs: UFC, WEC, Strikeforce, DREAM, Sengoku, etc. And odds also occasionally go up for the smaller shows, like MFC, M-1, Shark Fights, etc.
My goal is to get to the point where I am betting on just about everything.
Okay, I just did some research on Escudero/Dunham.
Hmm. . .
I think the line's probably pretty well set. I believe I would feel comfortable taking Escudero at anything under -200, but not at the current line. Dunham is more game than I expected him to be. He's tall and lanky and knows how to use his height and reach to his advantage in his striking and his takedown defense isn't excellent, but it's not bad either.
At the current line, if I were to place a bet, it would probably be .25u on Dunham. Either that, or I would throw Escudero into a parlay with another fighter who I gave a good chance to win.
We'll see what happens as we get closer to fight time. If Escudero's line continues to get worse and Dunham's better, then I'll probably make a small play on Dunham. I think he has ways to win.
Number one thing in betting
NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once
Number one thing in betting
NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once
I did that. . .
. . . on all the boxing matches I've bet on.
Number one thing in betting
NEVER EVER bet a fight where you havent watched both fighters fight at least once
I did that. . .
. . . on all the boxing matches I've bet on.
::lmao::
The HOFF
01-04-2010, 03:10 AM
I find that WEC fights are a lot harder to cap as well. Most of the fighters are making their debut and come from smaller local shows. Youtube is actually a good source for finding fight videos of those local shows.
With this Fight Night card I actually think there is a lot of value in the dogs. TUF fame always inflates a line. I think both Escudero and Sadollah are overpriced. I actually think Blackburn should be favored over Sadollah. Amir had some extremely sloppy stand up while beating up a can in Baroni. And I think everyone forgets that Amir was subbing inexperienced guys on the show. Subs don't come that easy against decent competition. Blackburn is a middle of the road vet that is going to give Sadollah problems. Love Blackburn at +135. Dunham has just as good of a skill set as Escudero has. Plus Dunham is going to have a reach advantage. I'm on Dunham +200. And as previously stated, I like Diaz at +270. Waiting for the line on Rory MacDonald.
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 09:55 AM
Good stuff here. Lots of good thoughts.
So what was your conclusion? Is there value in Lawlor or are you going with A-Train?
The Avellan fight didn't show me much (he KOd him in the first exchange). But it did remind me that Simpson also has a striking advantage. I also watched Herman v. Maia. Heman is a decent grappler, he was doing pretty well against Demian, and Demian was starting to gas.
The I looked at Lawlor. All of his subs except CB, came from dominant positions. He is like Matt Hughes, he can sub you, but is much more likely from top. CB is a decent wrestler, but is ALOT slower and more lanky than Simpson, who has a compact body habitus. His stocky frame will make him more difficult to submit.
What pushed me over though was Lawlor's TUF fight with Bader. Simpson is similar to Bader, but more explosive with his hands.
I put down 5u on Simpson @ -250
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 09:58 AM
Oh and I don't bet WEC's... it is probablt going to sound strange, but the smaller fighters are too damn dynamic. There are too many good guys, they can all beat each other.
You know, I was thinking that to myself... even the people that "should" win lose to each other...
..but it is another opportunity..
I was going to ask you: Since you're looking to take this on as a full-time thing (therefore taking it very, very seriously) do you feel there's enough UFC fights to make that happen without having to put an enormous amount on each event? Or am I ignorant in assuming you only bet UFC MMA fights (which is possibly the case).
I think I'm going to follow that logic and just bet on UFC for now. I'll have to get to researching... have a week. ::clover::
3
No there are plenty of fights, I don't even bet every one. If you bet 5% on each fight, you only need to win one bet per month. Most guru's recommend smaller bets, maybe 1%, but I pretty much bet favorites all the time. I look for favorites with very few variables and a clear advantage.
Mr. IWS
01-04-2010, 12:33 PM
Good thread.
I probably wont be betting this card, but from a value standpoint, Diaz could be a play. He already has a win over Maynard on Tuf, so he has to have a mental edge there.
The problem with that though, is Maynard is a much better fighter than he was back on TUF.
I could see Maynard following the Clay Guida gameplan, and dry humping Diaz for 3 rounds for a decision, but at the same time, Diaz has already shown he can sub Maynard.
No play for me, but as a big Diaz fan, I cant wait to see it, and I hope he comes through.
Honestly I hope Diaz wins for the sake of the LW division.
That way Edgar can get a title shot. Pretty sure Maynard knows he has no chance, and he has a win over Edgar.
Honestly I hope Diaz wins for the sake of the LW division.
That way Edgar can get a title shot. Pretty sure Maynard knows he has no chance, and he has a win over Edgar.
I want Maynard to get a title shot so I can get rich off BJ.
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 01:04 PM
Honestly I hope Diaz wins for the sake of the LW division.
That way Edgar can get a title shot. Pretty sure Maynard knows he has no chance, and he has a win over Edgar.
I think Gray has a better shotat BJ that Edgar. At least Maynard is big.
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 01:06 PM
Okay, I just did some research on Escudero/Dunham.
Hmm. . .
I think the line's probably pretty well set. I believe I would feel comfortable taking Escudero at anything under -200, but not at the current line. Dunham is more game than I expected him to be. He's tall and lanky and knows how to use his height and reach to his advantage in his striking and his takedown defense isn't excellent, but it's not bad either.
At the current line, if I were to place a bet, it would probably be .25u on Dunham. Either that, or I would throw Escudero into a parlay with another fighter who I gave a good chance to win.
We'll see what happens as we get closer to fight time. If Escudero's line continues to get worse and Dunham's better, then I'll probably make a small play on Dunham. I think he has ways to win.
I won't bet Dunham. I am still considering Efrain. Can Efrain strike with Dunham?
[quote="zY|":374ylgus]Honestly I hope Diaz wins for the sake of the LW division.
That way Edgar can get a title shot. Pretty sure Maynard knows he has no chance, and he has a win over Edgar.
I think Gray has a better shotat BJ that Edgar. At least Maynard is big.[/quote:374ylgus]
Well let Gray fight him and then Edgar. Then we'll get 2x as rich.
I don't think either guy has a shot. I want to see Maynard/Edgar II. I think Frankie will do better than he did the first time around.
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 01:08 PM
agreed, BJ will tool both. Actually, there is no one for bj to fight at all. Now I worry about his motivation to train.
I won't bet Dunham. I am still considering Efrain. Can Efrain strike with Dunham?
Probably. He'll just have to get inside his reach, which he was able to do with Cole Miller. If you watch Dunham's fight with Marcus Aurelio you can see that Aurelio has a real hard time in the first round but starts to adapt after that. If Efrain's smart, he should be able to do the same thing.
Again, my problem with Efrain is that we don't have a whole lot to go on. At this point, I'd probably take Efrain at -190 or better and Dunham at +250 or better.
Mr. IWS
01-04-2010, 01:19 PM
agreed, BJ will tool both. Actually, there is no one for bj to fight at all. Now I worry about his motivation to train.
At this point, I think his only motivation is to clean out whats left at 155, and get back to GSP.
Good from a bettors standpoint I guess.
So who would be LW champ if BJ wasn't around?
I'd say Edgar, Maynard, or possibly even Sherk if he can get his shit together.
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 01:29 PM
I think Florian would be champ if bj suddenly died. Or Maynard. Probably Maynard. I don't think Sherk can beat Maynard or Edgar. Diego is a threat to all those guys too. Florian/Maynard/Diego... That's my answer.
I think Florian would be champ if bj suddenly died. Or Maynard. Probably Maynard. I don't think Sherk can beat Maynard or Edgar. Diego is a threat to all those guys too. Florian/Maynard/Diego... That's my answer.
Shit, I forgot about Florian. I'm with you on that one.
Florian = 2nd best LW in the UFC, maybe the world.
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 02:06 PM
I won't bet Dunham. I am still considering Efrain. Can Efrain strike with Dunham?
Probably. He'll just have to get inside his reach, which he was able to do with Cole Miller. If you watch Dunham's fight with Marcus Aurelio you can see that Aurelio has a real hard time in the first round but starts to adapt after that. If Efrain's smart, he should be able to do the same thing.
Again, my problem with Efrain is that we don't have a whole lot to go on. At this point, I'd probably take Efrain at -190 or better and Dunham at +250 or better.
I went and watched Efrain fight Cole, then watched Dunham fight Aurelio and Eklund. I dunno man... Dunham is kind of a bad ass. He has good hands. he dropped Aurelio in the first, and he dropped Eklund twice, KOing him the second time. I think he can give Efrain some problems standing. On the ground, Efrain may get the better of it, but I do not know if he will try to take it there. I trust that any Megaton brown belt can defend himself off his back.
Mr. IWS
01-04-2010, 02:13 PM
So who would be LW champ if BJ wasn't around?
I'd say Edgar, Maynard, or possibly even Sherk if he can get his shit together.
I gotta go with Florini
I went and watched Efrain fight Cole, then watched Dunham fight Aurelio and Eklund. I dunno man... Dunham is kind of a bad ass. He has good hands. he dropped Aurelio in the first, and he dropped Eklund twice, KOing him the second time. I think he can give Efrain some problems standing. On the ground, Efrain may get the better of it, but I do not know if he will try to take it there. I trust that any Megaton brown belt can defend himself off his back.
I agree . . . Dunham looked pretty good. The only reason I don't feel compelled to throw a small play on his is the level of competition he's faced. Eklund is 1-2 in the UFC, with his only win coming in his match with Samy Schiavo, who is 0-2. His win over Aurelio was a split, and Aurelio is 2-4 in the UFC with his only wins being over guys I've never heard of.
So the question is: Is Dunham that good or has he just been fighting B and C level competition?
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 02:38 PM
Yeah, Aurelio is tough though- he has faded recently though. Efrain hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row either. I mean, Cole is decent, but he is totally B/C level.
I don't know, which is why I am staying away.
Yeah, Aurelio is tough though- he has faded recently though. Efrain hasn't exactly faced a murderer's row either. I mean, Cole is decent, but he is totally B/C level.
I don't know, which is why I am staying away.
I'd say Cole is a solid B. And it's hard to say where Nover fits in at that point.
Eklund is a C fighter for sure. Aurelio is probably a B-.
This fighter level alphabet sounds totally scientific.
This fighter level alphabet sounds totally scientific.
I applied the scientific method in order to determine the assigned letters.
MMA_scientist
01-04-2010, 03:26 PM
I do not even know what the "scientific method" means... I just know a B when I see one.
I guess its more art in that sense... MMA Artist is kind on redundant... so I went with scientist
You're a D level poster. ::thumbup::
Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year's Day and two birthdays – UFC lightweight Evan Dunham trained through them all for his co-main-event fight against "The Ultimate Fighter" season-eight winner Efrain Escudero at Monday's UFC Fight Night 20 event in Fairfax, Va.
He's given up a lot but said it's a small price to pay for victory. Training and personal time are the same thing.
"I always try to train a little bit harder than the last time to ensure that the Evan that goes in there is a better Evan than the last time," Dunham told MMAjunkie.com (mmajunkie.com) on Tuesday.
The 28-year-old Dunham has had a fast rise in the 155-pound division with victories over Per Eklund and Marcus Aurelio. A high-school wrestling standout, he bucked his wrestling base by out-striking the two decisively. He now lives in Las Vegas, where he works with Shawn Tompkins and, apparently, sees little daylight outside the gym.
Dunham considers himself a lucky man for the lack of flack he gets for his schedule.
"(My family) support it because they know that hard work pays off," Dunham said. "They know that this is a sport you have to be very dedicated to."
Escudero, an All-American wrestler at Pima College, proved his dedication on the reality show by dominating Phillipe Nover to win the "TUF" crown. In September, he turned heads when he shirked his mat pedigree by knocking out Cole Miller at UFC 103.
Dunham, however, thinks he's got what it takes to out-strike the developing striker.
"I think I have the advantage in the hands," he said. "I think I'm a little more elusive than he is."
In fact, Dunham is banking on a confidence bump he thinks Escudero got for the recent finish. When the inevitable clash of hands goes down, he expects the reality-show winner to get the message that standing isn't a good idea.
"I think that last fight put something in his head, gave him some confidence, which is well deserved, and I think he's going to go out and test his hands," Dunham said. "As soon as I crack him with something, he's definitely going to be coming in hot."
Tompkins has said his pupil is one of the only guys to give top-tier lightweight Gray Maynard fits in the gym.
"I think a big part of this fight is going to come down to transitions," Dunham said. "Just like a high level jiu-jitsu match where fights aren't won by a single move, they're won in transitions. He's got great wrestling, but I'm down here training with guys who in my opinion have better wrestling. He's not going to bring anything to the table that I'm not used to competing against on a daily basis."
Six days out from the fight, he's at 167 pounds and ramping down his camp. He said he won't need any help getting focused when game-time arrives – not with all the personal time he's invested in the fight.
All that's needed is a final gut-check before the cage door closes.
"Before every fight, I kneel down, and I get into a nice, relaxed place in my head," Dunham said. "I think about how life is up to this point, realize that I'm happy with everything that's happens, and now it's time to go to war. It's time to leave everything I got in the world out there."
http://mmajunkie.com/news/17441/skipped ... dunham.mma (http://mmajunkie.com/news/17441/skipped-holidays-are-part-of-the-fight-game-for-ufc-fight-night-20-co-headliner-evan-dunham.mma)
I think I might go ahead and jump on Dunham for .5u.
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 01:23 PM
i think that is a solid play.
I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.
i think that is a solid play.
I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.
I don't know if it's just Shawn Tompkins hyping his own guy or not, but if Dunham can really hang with Maynard in the wrestling department then I don't think he'll have a big problem defending Efrain's takedowns.
i think that is a solid play.
I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.
If you think it's an even fight, sounds like a great dog bet.
And on that note, I'm not sure why they're matching up 2 undefeated prospects.
And on that note, I'm not sure why they're matching up 2 undefeated prospects.
Someone's 0 must go!
$#%@#$%!$!!!
Why in the FUCK is the Harris/Massenzio fight no longer showing up on the UFC website?
I swear to God, if they moved that fight I'm going to be pissed!
WAR HURRICANE!
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 03:12 PM
[quote="MMA_scientist":h3ujs0ls]i think that is a solid play.
I initially liked Efrain, but after looking more at Dunham, I think is pretty close to even. I am not betting it, but I kind of want to jump on Dunham here.
If you think it's an even fight, sounds like a great dog bet.
And on that note, I'm not sure why they're matching up 2 undefeated prospects.[/quote:h3ujs0ls]
I think it is a good bet... but per my rule of only betting dogs that I think will win the fight, I have to value him at at least Even to make it. I still give Efrain a slight advantage, just because of athleticism and takedowns. Evan has to beat Efrain both places, because Efrain can have the takedown when he wants it... Evan might give Maynard trouble on the mat, but judging on his past fights, he won't be able to stop the takedowns.
I think it is a good bet... but per my rule of only betting dogs that I think will win the fight, I have to value him at at least Even to make it. I still give Efrain a slight advantage, just because of athleticism and takedowns. Evan has to beat Efrain both places, because Efrain can have the takedown when he wants it... Evan might give Maynard trouble on the mat, but judging on his past fights, he won't be able to stop the takedowns.
Why have such a rule? Don't you think that in the long run you're actually losing money by giving up +EV wagers?
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 03:28 PM
I think it is a good bet... but per my rule of only betting dogs that I think will win the fight, I have to value him at at least Even to make it. I still give Efrain a slight advantage, just because of athleticism and takedowns. Evan has to beat Efrain both places, because Efrain can have the takedown when he wants it... Evan might give Maynard trouble on the mat, but judging on his past fights, he won't be able to stop the takedowns.
Why have such a rule? Don't you think that in the long run you're actually losing money by giving up +EV wagers?
Yes, but its worth it for me, in order to keep volatility down. Passing up these bets lets me make bigger bets on other fights without risking ruin.
Yes, but its worth it for me, in order to keep volatility down. Passing up these bets lets me make bigger bets on other fights without risking ruin.
I hear you.
That's why I keep my typical wagers on underdogs in the .25-.5u range. That way if I lose it's not a real big deal.
I'm going to go home and look at my bets for December and see if I am ahead or behind for the month for my underdog bets.
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 03:35 PM
Also, in my mind, there are really only 2 kinds of fights... fights where the outcome is pretty certain, and those where I am not sure what will happen. I try to only bet on the ones where I am pretty sure I know what will happen.
Of course I get it wrong sometimes... but honestly, not that much. Most of the time when I lose, I feel like I just overlooked something because I let my own greed and/or like or dislike for a fight sway me. I feel like you can find value in most of the fights on the card, really.
Setting a firm percentage seems so artifical and subjective to me... can I really differentiate between a fighter who is 63% to win and one that is 68%? I don't think so... what does it even mean? To me, they are going to win or they are not.
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 03:37 PM
I have only had 2 dogs since November: Bisping/Kang and Koscheck/Johnson. I thought both of them would win, barring some freak occurence.
I feel like you can find value in most of the fights on the card, really.
This is my philosophy. That's why I had like 8 bets out there for 108.
Setting a firm percentage seems so artifical and subjective to me... can I really differentiate between a fighter who is 63% to win and one that is 68%? I don't think so... what does it even mean? To me, they are going to win or they are not.
In the end, it only matters if your guy wins. If you could somehow had a way to know for sure who was going to win a fight, the percentages and "value" and all that shit wouldn't matter. In that sense, ALL fights hold value because someone's going to win (barring those rare instances of NCs and Draws).
Yes, but its worth it for me, in order to keep volatility down. Passing up these bets lets me make bigger bets on other fights without risking ruin.
I hear you.
That's why I keep my typical wagers on underdogs in the .25-.5u range. That way if I lose it's not a real big deal.
I'm going to go home and look at my bets for December and see if I am ahead or behind for the month for my underdog bets.
I know I'm ahead. I generally don't bet many dogs either but I've found two instances where betting dogs seems to be the way to go. Japanese MMA(Dream/Sengoku anyways) and TUF Finales. The latter is because guys get all hyped up because of a reality show that in no way reflects their skills and there are always gross inflations of lines. Look at the last one, didn't like 4 +200 or worse dogs come through? Also for TUF 9 I bet against James Wilks solely because everyone thought Damarques would win. Same with Nover/Efrain at TUF 8(I didn't bet this one though).
Japanese MMA is harder to gauge why it happens but dogs seem to win all the damn time. On Dynamite I made 5 dog bets and won 3 of them.
I know I'm ahead. I generally don't bet many dogs either but I've found two instances where betting dogs seems to be the way to go. Japanese MMA(Dream/Sengoku anyways) and TUF Finales. The latter is because guys get all hyped up because of a reality show that in no way reflects their skills and there are always gross inflations of lines. Look at the last one, didn't like 4 +200 or worse dogs come through? Also for TUF 9 I bet against James Wilks solely because everyone thought Damarques would win. Same with Nover/Efrain at TUF 8(I didn't bet this one though).
That's an interesting thought. I will have to keep that in mind for the next TUF Finale.
Japanese MMA is harder to gauge why it happens but dogs seem to win all the damn time. On Dynamite I made 5 dog bets and won 3 of them.
Considering the fact that you went dog crazy on that event anyway, why didn't you bet Kanehara? I thought it was obvious that that line was off.
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 03:55 PM
I agree with your TUF theory. I think the fighters are so raw alot of times, you see a totally different fighter on teh Finale. Also, you get to see them fight when they actually know ahead of time who they are fighting.
I rarely bet on Japanese MMA, because I lose all the time when I do. So you are probably right there too.
[quote=zY|]
I know I'm ahead. I generally don't bet many dogs either but I've found two instances where betting dogs seems to be the way to go. Japanese MMA(Dream/Sengoku anyways) and TUF Finales. The latter is because guys get all hyped up because of a reality show that in no way reflects their skills and there are always gross inflations of lines. Look at the last one, didn't like 4 +200 or worse dogs come through? Also for TUF 9 I bet against James Wilks solely because everyone thought Damarques would win. Same with Nover/Efrain at TUF 8(I didn't bet this one though).
That's an interesting thought. I will have to keep that in mind for the next TUF Finale.
Japanese MMA is harder to gauge why it happens but dogs seem to win all the damn time. On Dynamite I made 5 dog bets and won 3 of them.
Considering the fact that you went dog crazy on that event anyway, why didn't you bet Kanehara? I thought it was obvious that that line was off.[/quote:1k4qpsax]
Because I thought he was terrible to be honest.
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 04:08 PM
Unrelated:
When do you guys think the undercard lines will come out for UFN, since it is on a Monday? I am expecting them tomorrow... but I have to be somewhere all afternoon, so I am hoping they come out in the morning or not at all.
Unrelated:
When do you guys think the undercard lines will come out for UFN, since it is on a Monday? I am expecting them tomorrow... but I have to be somewhere all afternoon, so I am hoping they come out in the morning or not at all.
I heard a rumor that WEC lines were expected to come out tomorrow so would guess we'll see the UFN lines as well.
Then again, it's just a rumor so who knows.
Mr. IWS
01-06-2010, 04:29 PM
+1 on the Tuf Underdogs. I rarely take dogs, but I had Bader over Vinny Magalese in that Finale.
Mr. IWS
01-06-2010, 04:32 PM
+1 on the Tuf Underdogs. I rarely take dogs, but I had Bader over Vinny Magalese in that Finale.
I also had CB Dolloway against Amir. :burn:
Where's your fucking ninja?
Where's your fucking ninja?
I was wondering the SAME fucking thing!
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 04:41 PM
I will literally chinese-star your ass to DEATH.
Mr. IWS
01-06-2010, 04:49 PM
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Nature boy > Ninjas
He figure-4'd Dudikoff into submission.
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Nature boy > Ninjas
He figure-4'd Dudikoff into submission.
Fucking blasphemy. . .
MMA_scientist
01-06-2010, 05:22 PM
Nature boy is a can.
I am actually thinking about leaving this forum permanently after that.
Dudikoff would sai Flair in the aorta, and then rape nature boy's limp lifeless body over the turnbuckle in front of his family
Mr. IWS
01-06-2010, 05:54 PM
Dudikoff cant cut a promo like this baby!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3J8HC-sxiaY
.5u on Dunham at +210
Done and done.
Underdog Results for December
Okay, just tallied these up.
Dennis Hallman: L -.5u
Kimbo Slice: W +.65u
Matt Hamill: W +1u (I know, I know, but a win's a win)
Alan Belcher: W +.79u (I know he ended up as the fave, but I got him at slight underdog odds)
Chris Hodecki: L -.25u
Scott Smith: W +.4u
Masanori Kanehara: W +.88u
Ryan Jensen: L -.25u
Sam Stout: W +.54u
6-3 overall. +3.26u
So there you go, good dog picks help build rolls.
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 09:15 AM
That's good work SPX. That sort of enlightens me a little, because I also had Stout, Belcher, and Slice picked to win as underdogs, though I did not bet them. I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs. This will keep me from going ballistic and trying to make up the losses.
This has inspired me to go ahead and drop .5u on Diaz
Mr. IWS
01-07-2010, 09:36 AM
I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs.
I like that idea. I might do that too. I think Ill put like $100 in bookmaker and do that. Make like $20 per play on a dog.
That will give me something to bet on, cause I dont really bet too many fights.
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 10:19 AM
[quote="MMA_scientist":2f7var8i]I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs.
I like that idea. I might do that too. I think Ill put like $100 in bookmaker and do that. Make like $20 per play on a dog.
That will give me something to bet on, cause I dont really bet too many fights.[/quote:2f7var8i]
Yeah, this will keep me from going on tilt with my main bankroll when I lose (which I have a horrible time with- I am a total maniac, I literally die inside a litle everytime I lose a bet)... I will probably use a 20u bankroll for this project and just see what happens.
That's good work SPX. That sort of enlightens me a little, because I also had Stout, Belcher, and Slice picked to win as underdogs, though I did not bet them. I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs. This will keep me from going ballistic and trying to make up the losses.
That sounds like a good idea. Just bet small amounts. Here's the way I usually look at it: The dollar bills in your wallet are for favorites . . . the change in your pocket is for dogs.
I 'd think it would be hard to get too upset for losing .25u when your average bet seems to be 20x that.
This has inspired me to go ahead and drop .5u on Diaz
Hmm. . . To be honest, I'm not sure that that's the best way to start this experiment. I have 3u on Maynard and really think he's going to win this fight. But hey, who knows. Diaz could sub him again.
I like that idea. I might do that too. I think Ill put like $100 in bookmaker and do that. Make like $20 per play on a dog.
That will give me something to bet on, cause I dont really bet too many fights.
Do, it Zak! DO IT!
Though you may want to consider using $10 units initially so you don't hit a few bad beats on the front end and tap yourself out before you really get started. (Or maybe for you that's just too small of an amount to even get excited about.)
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 11:14 AM
[quote=MMA_scientist]That's good work SPX. That sort of enlightens me a little, because I also had Stout, Belcher, and Slice picked to win as underdogs, though I did not bet them. I might start trying some smaller plays on dogs and thinking of it as a separate bankroll- only for dogs. This will keep me from going ballistic and trying to make up the losses.
That sounds like a good idea. Just bet small amounts. Here's the way I usually look at it: The dollar bills in your wallet are for favorites . . . the change in your pocket is for dogs.
I 'd think it would be hard to get too upset for losing .25u when your average bet seems to be 20x that.
This has inspired me to go ahead and drop .5u on Diaz
Hmm. . . To be honest, I'm not sure that that's the best way to start this experiment. I have 3u on Maynard and really think he's going to win this fight. But hey, who knows. Diaz could sub him again.[/quote:3kcykvgf]
Well in my new venture, I am going to be a strict value bettor. I think Diaz has value. To Diaz, the difference between Maynard's wrestling and Guida's is not noticeable. I think Diaz has the toughness to frustrate Maynard on his feet, and could sub him from bottom. I doubt Maynard can finish him, so that gives Diaz a long time to figure something out.
Probably not, and I haven't made the bet yet, but this is how I see it.
Okay, makes sense. I don't personally think there's value in Diaz at his line, but I could be wrong, of course.
With Mike Massenzio (11-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) forced off the card for unspecified reasons, UFC newcomer John Salter (4-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) has taken his place and now meets middleweight Gerald Harris (13-2 MMA, 0-0 UFC) at Monday's UFC Fight Night 20 event.
Multiple sources close to the fight told MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com (http://www.mmajunkie.com)) that bout agreements have been signed.
UFC Fight Night 20 takes place Jan. 11 at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Va. The night's main card airs on Spike TV, though Harris vs. Salter is scheduled for the night's un-aired preliminary card.
Harris, a cast member on "The Ultimate Fighter 7" who was released after the show, recently fought his way back into the UFC and replaced injured Tim Credeur on the card. So, the Credeur vs. Massenzio fight is now a Harris vs. Salter bout.
After eventual show winner Amir Sadollah eliminated him on "TUF 7," Harris left the UFC and found plenty of success. The former IFL fighter currently owns a seven-fight win streak, which included a recent first-round knockout of former UFC fighter Nissen Osterneck in September for the Shark Fights middleweight title.
While UFC president Dana White was a guest on MMAjunkie.com Radio in November, Harris called into the show and told the UFC executive he was ready to make his octagon debut. After hearing about Harris' win streak and recent victory over Osterneck, White told him to call the offices so they could chat. Harris received a contract a few days later.
Salter makes his octagon debut with a 4-0 pro record, which followed a successful 7-0 run as an amateur. The former state high school wrestling champion and NAIA national champion (at Linwood University in Missouri) turned pro in 2007. After competing for a variety of events, including King of the Cage and Adrenaline MMA, Salter recently topped "The Ultimate Fighter 7" cast member Jeremiah Riggs via first-round TKO at an October event in Illinois.
Well holy fucking shit. Who the fuck is John Salter?
I'm just glad that Harris is still on this card. It IS going to force me to rethink my betting strategy for this fight though. I need to find something out about this Salter character.
I guess that explains why the fight disappeared from the fight card on the UFC website.
Jean-Paul Sartre?
Bad Philosophy joke is bad.
Just posted this over on the Junkie forum:
Maynard v Diaz
I feel strongly that Maynard should win this one. Diaz is a good BJJ guy, but he's relatively weak and has trouble with strong wrestlers (see Guida, Stevenson). I understand that Diaz subbed Maynard on TUF, but I think the Gray Maynard who was on the show is not the same Gray Maynard who is fighting today. We all know how much these guys improve after the show. On the feet, I think it will be pretty even. Diaz may land more punches, but Maynard will have more power. On the ground, I think Maynard will be able to use his wrestling to control Diaz and is experienced enough at this point to avoid his sub attempts.
Escudero v Dunham
Line is off. This fight's a lot closer to even than it would indicate, with a small edge to Escudero. I think that on the feet, Dunham probably actually has the edge here. He'll be able to use his height and reach to his advantage and the kid also has power. (If I remember correctly, he dropped both Eklund and Aurelio in the first round.) I have to believe that Escudero will have the advantage in the wrestling department. If he gets Dunham down, he might be able GnP him and win a decision, but I don't really see him putting Dunham out. However, Dunham's TD defense isn't bad and, at least according to Shawn Tompkins, Dunham is one of the few guys who can hang in the gym with Gray Maynard. The edge goes to Escudero, but I think the value is in Dunham.
Sadollah v Blackburn
Blackburn is a game opponent with some pretty crisp standup, but I think Sadollah is a step ahead. Blackburn's fights against Chonan and Garcia were pretty close. I personally scored them for Blackburn, but I have heard others call them both robberies. After Sadollah got TKOd by Hendricks I thought he might have some chin issues, but he took some heavy shots from Baroni and kept coming forward. Also, Blackburn doesn't seem to be the aggressive type of fighter who will swarm Amir like Hendricks did. I think Amir will get the better of the stand up and if it goes to the ground then he should definitely have the advantage. My primary concerns lie in the fact that I know Blackburn has a TKO win of Jay Hieron (haven't seen the fight, just the result) and Amir is still pretty much an unproven commodity at this point.
Kyle Bradley v Rafael Dos Anjos
I've never seen anything impressive from Bradley. His stand up seems pretty average and he should be completely outclassed by Dos Anjos on the ground. I think Rafael will be able to hold his own on the feet (maybe even win the stand up?) and will eventually get Bradley to the ground where he will dominate him. Bradley's one win--against Nover--was a terrible early stoppage and I doubt he would've won that fight if it had kept going. I think Dos Anjos is probably good all the way to -200.
Gerald Harris v John Salter
If you're like me, you're first thought was, "Who the fuck is John Salter?" Originally, Harris was supposed to fight Massenzio, but Massenzio pulled out for "undisclosed reasons." Sucks too, because I was looking forward to seeing Harris do his thing and make a statement in his first fight in the UFC. Now I have to rethink things and try to figure out how good of a fighter Salter is. Facts about Harris: He has awesome slams, strong wrestling, good striking with KO power, and has an overall record of 12-2. He was on featured on Season 7 of TUF where he lost via TKO to Amir, but it was a very early stoppage by a ref who didn't have a clue what he was doing in there. My guess is that if Harris' line isn't ridiculous, then he'll probably still be worth a bet.
Mr. IWS
01-07-2010, 01:27 PM
good shit SPX
Maynard just dropped to -295 on Bodog and -290 on Sportsbook. I guess money is starting to come in on Diaz.
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 08:34 PM
Nice breakdown.
As you know I like Dos Anjos more than that (all the way to -400)...
I also have already made my bet on Aaron Simpson @-250. Great matchup for Simpson. Lawlor can't get Simpson down, and if he does, he will be on bottom, where he is not nearly as dangerous. Love that bet.
Now, where is the damn line on the undercard?
I also have already made my bet on Aaron Simpson @-250. Great matchup for Simpson. Lawlor can't get Simpson down, and if he does, he will be on bottom, where he is not nearly as dangerous. Love that bet.
How much did you put on Simpson? I'm thinking about jumping on that one, too. . .
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 08:53 PM
I put 5u on him...
I don't see how Lawlor can beat him. Lawlor is very similar to Ed Herman IMO. Both are pretty good wrestlers, have weak standup, and a pretty good bjj game. Although Lawlor has been working on becoming a more well rounded grappler, he only has one win from bottom, his guillotine of CB- who has proven to be pretty submission prone (he has the style of wrestling that requires him to leave his limbs out). Simpson is so compact and powerful, I don't think Lawlro could sub him from bottom. But I am hoping Simpson just keeps it standing.
I just watched Simpson VS McKenzie and Herman, and Lawlor VS Kingsbury and CB.
I agree with you. Lawlor's standup looks pretty shitty. All he wants to do is shoot in the wrestle and I seriously don't think that shit will work against Simpson, who is extremely energetic and aggressive. Also, if you notice in the Lawlor/Kingsbury fight his wrestling gets progressively weaker each round. By the third, he was completely gassed and Kingsbury stole the round.
I went ahead and put 2.5u on A-Train.
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 09:30 PM
Line is out for undercard
I got Dos Anjos @ -305
so my bets are:
5u on Simpson @ -250
5u on Dos Anjos @ -305
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 09:34 PM
I just watched Simpson VS McKenzie and Herman, and Lawlor VS Kingsbury and CB.
I agree with you. Lawlor's standup looks pretty shitty. All he wants to do is shoot in the wrestle and I seriously don't think that shit will work against Simpson, who is extremely energetic and aggressive. Also, if you notice in the Lawlor/Kingsbury fight his wrestling gets progressively weaker each round. By the third, he was completely gassed and Kingsbury stole the round.
I went ahead and put 2.5u on A-Train.
Yeah Simpson is also a WAY better wrestler than Lawlor. Lawlor was a NCWA wrestler... Simpson was an AA and olympic candidate and coaches for ASU.
Line is out for undercard
I got Dos Anjos @ -305
so my bets are:
5u on Simpson @ -250
5u on Dos Anjos @ -305
Totally disappointed in Dos Anjos's line.
I'm going to wait and see if other books open him at a better price or if Bodog's comes down.
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 09:39 PM
I thought it would be -250 or so...
he is going the opposite way though, he was -315 within 2 minutes after I placed my bet
Damn, this is fucking disappointing.
Dos Anjos' line sucks and Gerald Harris doesn't even get one.
MMA_scientist
01-07-2010, 10:21 PM
Maybe a line will open on Gerald tomorrow, but if you think Dos Anjos' line sucks... Gerald is gonna be a huge favorite
Maybe a line will open on Gerald tomorrow, but if you think Dos Anjos' line sucks... Gerald is gonna be a huge favorite
Maybe I'll put 'em in a parlay together. . .
UKDonkbet
01-08-2010, 12:22 AM
I really like Silva at +155 against Leben. Stylistically this is a bad match up for Leben. H ewill want to stand and bang with Silva and this gives Silva his best possible way to win. I believe Leben will want to KO the knockout artist to prove that he his committed to MMA that means staying in the pocket and giving Silva his best chance to win. I had Rosholt in the his Leben fight but I didn't think it would end the way it did. Leben looked awful in his hometown where I would suspect he would wan to make an excellent showing. Taking Silva based on bad matchup for Leben style-wise and has seemed to faded out some.
I like a small play on Silva here. I'm thinking about a .25u to .75u play on Silva, still watching to see how the line moves though. Thoughts?
I really like Silva at +155 against Leben. Stylistically this is a bad match up for Leben. H ewill want to stand and bang with Silva and this gives Silva his best possible way to win. I believe Leben will want to KO the knockout artist to prove that he his committed to MMA that means staying in the pocket and giving Silva his best chance to win. I had Rosholt in the his Leben fight but I didn't think it would end the way it did. Leben looked awful in his hometown where I would suspect he would wan to make an excellent showing. Taking Silva based on bad matchup for Leben style-wise and has seemed to faded out some.
I like a small play on Silva here. I'm thinking about a .25u to .75u play on Silva, still watching to see how the line moves though. Thoughts?
Just because of what you and GCAD said earlier, I threw .25u on him at +170. For the record though, I hope Leben takes this one. He doesn't want to go 0-3 and I don't want to see him cut.
Leben did give a good interview though where if what he says is true then we may see a much better Leben than the one who was in the cage with Jake Rosholt. Here's a quote:
“I will be training with Nate Quarry. They have phenomenal strength and conditioning. I just need to eat sleep and train. I want to do nothing but focus on my fight. The fact of the matter is that everybody needs a coach. I need eyes on the outside to help me. Nate provides that for me. When I get there I will just let them take the reins. I have faith and trust in them. Even though I can coach, when it is my turn to fight I become the fighter and I trust them to mold me.”
Full interview: http://www.mmahawaii.com/latest-news/19 ... ation.html (http://www.mmahawaii.com/latest-news/1978-chris-leben-redemption-and-continuation.html)
UKDonkbet
01-08-2010, 12:37 AM
I think this bet makes money over the long run. Leben will play right into Silva's hands. Leben does better in fights where he plays the bully and not so good when he can't push around and out-'brawl' his opponents. Silva will not be bullied. He will look to push around Leben not visa versa. .25u is a profitable play here.
Quarry had me shitting my pants in last fight with Credour. Maybe he is making a move to full time coaching. Its amazing he came back from that back disc replacement surgery anyway.
Quarry had me shitting my pants in last fight with Credour. Maybe he is making a move to full time coaching. Its amazing he came back from that back disc replacement surgery anyway.
Yeah, me too. At that point I had already lost 2.5u on Cantwell and was in no mood to dig a deeper hole. That fight was a lot closer than I expected it to be.
UKDonkbet
01-08-2010, 12:55 AM
Quarry had me shitting my pants in last fight with Credour. Maybe he is making a move to full time coaching. Its amazing he came back from that back disc replacement surgery anyway.
Yeah, me too. At that point I had already lost 2.5u on Cantwell and was in no mood to dig a deeper hole. That fight was a lot closer than I expected it to be.
Yeah I'm really going to take notice of Credour's next line. He really showed me a lot that night that I hadn't seen out of him til that fight. Timmy might get a weak line again and I'd like to get it soon enough to capitalize.
Gerald Harris just went up for -285. Unfortunately I have just about everything tied up in my Bookmaker account after making the Faber bet.
The HOFF
01-08-2010, 02:41 AM
FULL CARD ODDS
Nate Diaz +260
Gray Maynard +320
Evan Dunham +205
Efrain Escudero -255
Tom Lawlor +200
Aaron Simpson -250
Brad Blackburn +135
Amir Sadollah -165
Jay Silva +135
Chris Leben -165
Jesse Lennox +190
Rick Story -240
Mike Guymon +175
Rory MacDonald -215
Kyle Bradley +275
Rafael Dos Anjos -345
John Salter +225
Gerald Harris -285
Jesse Forbes +160
Nick Catone -200
UKDonkbet
01-08-2010, 09:47 PM
I was hoping Story would open for less than -240 against Forbes. If it was a little less than 2-1 I was making a play. This line is prob well set
The HOFF
01-10-2010, 04:28 PM
The full weigh-in results include:
MAIN CARD
* Nate Diaz (155) vs. Gray Maynard (155)
* Evan Dunham (155) vs. Efrain Escudero (155)
* Tom Lawlor (185) vs. Aaron Simpson (185)
* Brad Blackburn (170) vs. Amir Sadollah (170)
PRELIMINARY CARD
* Chris Leben (185) vs. Jay Silva (185)
* Jesse Lennox (170) vs. Rick Story (170)
* Nik Lentz (155) vs. Thiago Tavares (155)
* Mike Guymon (170) vs. Rory MacDonald (170)
* Kyle Bradley (155) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (155)
* Gerald Harris (185) vs. John Salter (185)
* Nick Catone (185) vs. Jesse Forbes (185)
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.