UFC 109: Relentless - Feb 6th - Discussion

[Mr. IWS]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/226.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[Mr. IWS]

I was gonna be on Handy, but shit, I didnt think he would be that big a fave, so Ill be passing on that one.

I may make a play on Marquardt though.

[SPX]

Could be a big event for me or could be a disaster.

I've gt 3u on Maia at -250 and 4u on Marky Marquardt at -275 (I think).

There are some other fights on this card I'm interested in as well so I'm sure that won't be the end of it.

[zY|]

I like Serra quite a bit.

I think the only way Trigg wins is to do his best Hughes impersonation, and Trigg isn't as good as Hughes (obviously).

[SPX]

I like Serra quite a bit.

I think the only way Trigg wins is to do his best Hughes impersonation, and Trigg isn't as good as Hughes (obviously).

Oh shit. . .

Forgot about that one.

I have 1.75u on Serra at -165.

Obviously should've waited, but I thought the line might get worse. Instead, I think Serra hit -115 at one point.

[Luke]

I'll be on Coleman for sure .Hopefully I can get +350 or better

[SPX]

I'll be on Coleman for sure .Hopefully I can get +350 or better

I know you could get +350 just a couple of hours ago. . .

[Luke]

I'll be on Coleman for sure .Hopefully I can get +350 or better

I know you could get +350 just a couple of hours ago. . .


I'm not too worried about it .If Randy stays at -360 or higher I'll get probably +355 at matchbook the day of the fight

If Randy goes up so will Coleman ,if it start to fall I'll bet it then

[The HOFF]

I have already parlayed Marquardt and Maia. I also really like Serra and will put some on that. At the current odds, you could only bet Coleman in that fight.

[SPX]

I have already parlayed Marquardt and Maia. I also really like Serra and will put some on that. At the current odds, you could only bet Coleman in that fight.

How heavy did you go on Marquardt and Maia?

I did 4u and 3u. 4u is an unsually large bet for me. 3u is usually my max. My only concern is that Marquardt hasn't faced as strong of a wrestler as Sonnen is.

[MMA_scientist]

I have 6u on Marquart @ -275 and 5u on Maia @ -300.

I think Trigg will beat Serra, but I won't be betting it. To Serra, Trigg is going to be just as tough as Hughes, wrestler wise. Trigg is also huge and Serra is small. Trigg does not have Matt Hughes' pension for going "baby deer" anytime he gets touched on the side of his head. Serra's submission prowess is pretty overrated IMO. He has never subbed anyone decent. I like Trigg, but would never bet it, too many possibilities and he just isnt very good.

Randy is totally overvalued. There is definate value to Coleman. He has done everything Randy has done, and has only lost to the very best guys, just like Randy. I would never bet on either of these guys at this point, but I would have set Randy at like -200 at most, just because of cardio.

[MMA_scientist]

Marquardt is going to tool Sonnen. Sonnen is being overrated right now based on his recent wins over totally favorable matchups. The kind of guys that beat on Sonnen are exactly the Marquarts of the world. Nate could sub him, take him down, KO him... Sonnen is gonna get blasted. Nate has 3 full rounds to figure something out, but I am guessing it happens in the first. Nate IS GOING TO WIN THAT FIGHT. Triple Scientist Lock Guarantee.

I am actually kind of concerened about the Maia bet. It was a fan bet, which I only do for a few fighters, and Maia is the main one. I re-watched his Ed Herman fight a couple nights ago, he was starting to gas pretty bad. Miller might be able to survive... I wish I could take that one back.

[SPX]

What do you think the chances are of Marquardt getting outwrestled and decisioned?

[MMA_scientist]

What do you think the chances are of Marquardt getting outwrestled and decisioned?

Slim. Sonnen is submission prone. Nate can scramble. I don't even think Sonnen will be able to take him down mcuh. Add in the fact that he would have to do it for 15 minutes, and it seems unlikely. Sonnen can't finish at all. At all. He would have to execute a perfect gameplan for 15 full minutes. Nate has to know the only way to lose is by top control decision, I am sure he is working it out.
Plus Nate has roid strength.

[MMA_scientist]

Just looked at that card, man there are a bunch of good matchups. I am gonna have like 30% of my bankroll out there. I will be on Danzig and Rolles if the lines are right.
Also watch out for Phil Davis on that card. That dude is a blue chip prospect. Stud. Total stud. He is fighting Stann, who keeps suprising me... but Davis is a man-child.

[SPX]

Slim. Sonnen is submission prone. Nate can scramble. I don't even think Sonnen will be able to take him down mcuh. Add in the fact that he would have to do it for 15 minutes, and it seems unlikely. Sonnen can't finish at all. At all. He would have to execute a perfect gameplan for 15 full minutes. Nate has to know the only way to lose is by top control decision, I am sure he is working it out.
Plus Nate has roid strength.

I agree with you. Nate's a bad ass. I thought his line was laughably mispriced when it opened at -275. Sonnen did impress me in his performance against Okami, though. He did exactly what you just said: executed a perfect gameplan for 15 minutes. There's not a single minute that he wasn't in control of that fight.

[Mr. IWS]

Also watch out for Phil Davis on that card. That dude is a blue chip prospect. Stud. Total stud. He is fighting Stann, who keeps suprising me... but Davis is a man-child.

Ive read alot about Davis. Looking forward to seeing him in the UFC.

[MMA_scientist]

Slim. Sonnen is submission prone. Nate can scramble. I don't even think Sonnen will be able to take him down mcuh. Add in the fact that he would have to do it for 15 minutes, and it seems unlikely. Sonnen can't finish at all. At all. He would have to execute a perfect gameplan for 15 full minutes. Nate has to know the only way to lose is by top control decision, I am sure he is working it out.
Plus Nate has roid strength.

I agree with you. Nate's a bad ass. I thought his line was laughably mispriced when it opened at -275. Sonnen did impress me in his performance against Okami, though. He did exactly what you just said: executed a perfect gameplan for 15 minutes. There's not a single minute that he wasn't in control of that fight.


yeah I jumped on Nate when it opened, I thought it would go up alot...

It is going to be much harder execute that gameplan against Nate. Okami is not nearly as dynamic as Nate. If Sonnen is executing a gameplan well, Nate should be able to switch to a different plan of attack, where as Okami is really just a wrestler. I actually bet on on Sonnen to beat Okami. But he is not going to able to do that to Nate. Going back to 2004, Nate has really only lost to Silva (yes Leites, but we all know Nate won). I think there is a good chance Nate guillotines Sonnen, with head crushing roid force, like he did to Horn.

[The HOFF]

How heavy did you go on Marquardt and Maia?

I did 4u and 3u. 4u is an unsually large bet for me. 3u is usually my max. My only concern is that Marquardt hasn't faced as strong of a wrestler as Sonnen is.

Right now I have 10u to win 7.5u on the parlay.

[The HOFF]

I am actually kind of concerened about the Maia bet. It was a fan bet, which I only do for a few fighters, and Maia is the main one. I re-watched his Ed Herman fight a couple nights ago, he was starting to gas pretty bad. Miller might be able to survive... I wish I could take that one back.

MMA Math always works! Maia > Sonnen. Sonnen > Miller. Therefor Maia > Miller.

I wouldn't be too worried. Sonnen and Miller are basically the same fighter. They have average stand up and no real KO power. They both rely on their wrestling. Maia had no problems with Sonnen and I think he should be able to sub Miller also. The only concern may be how tentative Maia is as this is his first fight after running into Marquardt's fist.

[MMA_scientist]

Well it doesnt take alot to make me nervous. I like to be almost positive my fighter is gonna win. I see Miller as closer to Herman that Sonnen. Not quite as good a wrestler, but a better all around grappler than Sonnen.