1-6-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Langer:
Wednesday's Selection ... NOTE:
Just love shutting up the haters.

And no better way to do it than with a 3-0 sweep, highlighted by not only the 25 dime winner Iowa in the first half, and 75 dime winner Iowa for the game, but the 25 dime money line play was as good as it gets.

Can't base your analysis on one guy. Josh Nesbitt couldn't hit water if he fell out of a fuc&?^?ing boat. Overrated passer all year long and felt great to watch him implode on the big stage.

Winning shuts everyone up. All they can grasp at is the past. Be my guest. Grasp all you want. I am about now, and now is pretty darn good, and will be very good here in 2010.

Current bowl run of 13-5. Overall bowl record of 22-15 which includes half time plays and a few teasers.

All I see in front of me right now is this GMAC Bowl. Just looking to win yet another game tonight. Just that simple.

Every winning day sends the haters away. Just like last night with Iowa, who dominated Georgia Tech in every way possible. All about bouncing back big time last night and I did just that.

Now time to add another winner to the mix.

50 DIME - TROY TROJANS - Will the MAC finally cover a bowl game?

Going back to last year the Mid American Conference is on an 0-9 ATS run.

This year alone we have seen Ohio implode, Bowling Green implode, Temple implode, and Northern Illinois implode.

I am talking about a conference that year in, and year out doesn't show up for bowls.

The river card for me tonight was watching South Florida in the 2nd half just run over, around and thru Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois couldn't do a thing offensively and that was a NIU offense which put up 31 on Central Michigan at CMU.

Troy has gotten better as the year has gone by and offensively they are playing their best ball of the year putting up 42, 50, 42, 40, 47, and 48 in 6 of their last 7 games.

I know they imploded in their two games versus BCS conference losing to Florida 56-6 and at Arkansas 56-20 but the fact still remains this team can score.

Earlier this bowl season I was watching Middle Tennessee State just destroy Southern Miss and I kept asking myself the question, "How in the world did Troy hold this Middle Tennessee State team to 7 points?

This is the best team in the Sun Belt, playing close to home, versus another MAC team that will have chances to win, should win but for whatever reason won't win because I don't care what anybody says, 0-9 ATS is 0-9 ATS.

The line move down does concern me a little bit but it's not enough to get me off going against the MAC.

When Northern Illinois showing so bad versus South florida I said right then and there I am not trusting the MAC in another bowl game this year which leaves us with this game tonight.

My dollar says the MAC finishes this year just like last year, 0-5 ATS as Troy gets the money.

FREE SELECTION - TROY-CENTRAL MICHIGAN OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne's Bowls & Playoffs
Wednesday, January 06, 2010

3*Troy (+3) over Central Mich
7:00 PM -- GMAC Bowl - Ladd Peebles Stadium, Mobile, AL


Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the North at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35.


3*Cornell (+22) over Kansas
8:00 PM -- Allen Fieldhouse

[Mr. IWS]

Root
Millionaires Club 4* CBB Marquette

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB SPORTS

CENTRAL MICH (-2.5) 33 Troy State 30
GMAC Bowl
06-Jan-10 04:00 PM Pacific Time
It's tough to know how prepared teams will be for a minor bowl game played this late in the bowl season, but all I can assume is that both teams will play at their normal level. If that is the case then this could be a close and entertaining game, as both teams should be able to move the ball with their versions of the spread offense.

Troy's offense is led by quarterback Levi Brown, who averaged an impressive 8.0 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average quarterback. Brown isn't a great runner like his predecessor, and Troy's rushing attack is a bit worse than average on a national scale - averaging 5.1 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp to an average team. Central Michigan is average defending the run (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.5 yprp against an average defensive team) and the Chippewas' pass defense is a little worse than average (5.9 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average just 5.7 yppp against an average team). Troy's offense has the edge in this match-up and Brown should post good numbers. My math model projects 441 total yard at 6.2 yards per play for the Trojans in this game.

Central Michigan's spread attack is led by 4 year starter Dan LeFevour, who will go down as one of the greatest dual threat quarterbacks in history. LeFevour completed 71% of his passes during this season while averaging 7.1 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB) and he led the Chippewas in rushing for the 3rd straight season. Central Michigan's offense is very similar to Troy's, with a good passing attack and a mediocre ground game (5.2 yprp against teams that would allow 5.2 yprp), but LeFevour should have more success than Brown given Troy's poor pass defense. The Trojans were horrible defensively the first two games without All-Conference LB Bear Woods, who had 18 tackles for loss in just 10 games. But, in the 10 games with Woods the Trojans still were 0.6 yppp worse than average defending the pass (6.1 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 5.5 yppp) and 0.2 yprp worse than average against the run (4.9 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average stop unit). My math model predicts 460 total yards at 6.4 yppl for the Chippewas in this game.

Neither quarterback is turnover prone (9 interceptions thrown by Brown and just 6 by LeFevour), but Central Michigan does have an edge in projected turnovers that is offset by Troy's edge in special teams. Overall, my math model favors Central Michigan by just 1 point in this game but the Chippewas apply to a solid 53-29-1 ATS bowl game statistical indicator. Central Michigan also out-played their statistics this season, as they allowed just 18.7 points per game despite allowing 344 total yards and 5.3 yppl. The indicator favoring the Chippewas is worth a few points and is enough to get me to pass on this game even though the math favors Troy a bit. I have no opinion on the side or the total in this game (my math predicts 62.6 total points, which is about what the total is).

[Mr. IWS]

PPP

5% Troy

[Mr. IWS]

LAST Main Event of the YEAR 9* - OVER C MICH / TROY

Ben Burns

[Mr. IWS]

VR..3* blowout. West Virginia -19.5, 2* late steam seton hall -6.5
2* CMU late steam -3 buy half point

[Mr. IWS]

nick parsons 10* total

Under troy

[Mr. IWS]

VR..2* steam Tennessee -13.5, 2* steam Cleveland -13.5, 2* steam det/San over 188

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

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