1-7-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS
BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR
8* Alabama/Texas Under

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al 5*
Texas

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB SPORTS

ALABAMA (-3.5) 26 Texas 19
BCS Championship
07-Jan-10 05:35 PM Pacific Time
The point spread on this game makes sense if you look at each team's overall performance this season, but Alabama has proven themselves against quality opponents while Texas has not, especially offensively.

Texas averaged 40.7 points per game this season, but that number is very misleading given the 11 non-offensive touchdowns that the Longhorns scored. The Texas offense does look good from a compensated yards per play perspective, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team, but that's hardly the prolific attack that their average points would lead you to believe (I rate their offense as 36th best in the nation based on compensated yards per play). Texas was also relatively much better against mediocre and bad defensive teams than they were against better than average stop units, as the Longhorns racked up an average of 567 total yards at 7.1 yppl against UL Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP, UCF, Kansas, and Texas A&M - teams that would combine to allow 5.8 yppl to an average team. That's a rating of 1.3 yppl better than average against sub-par defensive teams. Texas struggled against better than average defensive teams, averaging just 4.5 yppl against Texas Tech, Colorado (better than average from week 3 on when they simplified their defensive scheme), Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Nebraska - teams that would allow 4.6 yppl to an average attack. Thus, Texas was 0.1 yppl worse than average against better than average defensive teams and the better the defense faced the worse the Longhorns' compensated offensive rating was.

Alabama has a very strong defense, one which yielded just 4.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defense. Texas faced two teams of that are about that caliber defensively, Oklahoma and Nebraska. Against Oklahoma the Longhorns managed just 270 total yards at 3.5 yppl and 16 points and the only reason they won that game (16-13) was because of 5 Oklahoma turnovers. Against Nebraska in the Big 12 Championship game the Longhorns tallied just 202 yards at 2.7 yppl and scored just 13 points and were also very fortunate to win that game. In those two games Texas rated at 0.8 yppl worse than average offensively, averaging 3.1 yppl against the Sooners and Cornhuskers great defensive units that would combine to allow 3.9 yppl to an average team.

If I include every game for the Texas offense then my math model would project 296 total yards at 4.6 yppl, but the correlation between the level of opposing defense and the performance of the Texas offense was so strong (correlation coefficient of r=0.92) that I felt it was more predictive to use a profile analysis of the Texas offense. A profile analysis helps to find a rating for the running offense and passing offense based on performance against opponents with similar statistical characteristics of their current opponent Alabama. I also adjust to compensate for any variance that may skew the numbers due to one or two very good or very bad game ratings. In more basic terms, I grade the Texas run offense on how they performed relatively when facing good run defenses and I grade quarterback Colt McCoy, on a relative basis, on how he performed against good pass defenses while dampening the affect of outliers (i.e. games that were much better or worse than the overall rating carry less weight). That analysis gives a rating of 0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average for the Texas rushing attack and a rating of just 0.1 yards per pass play better than average for Colt McCoy, who averaged just 5.1 yppp against better than average pass defenses this season (those teams would allow 5.0 yppp to an average QB). Using the results of the profile analysis would lead to a projection of just 253 total yards at 3.9 yppl for Texas in this game.

While I don't expect the Texas offense to do much in this game, their outstanding defense and very good special teams (7 special teams touchdowns this season) could keep the Longhorns in this game. The Texas stop unit yielded just 3.3 yards per rushing play, 4.5 yards per pass play and 4.0 yards per play this season to an average slate of opposing offenses. The numbers are even better if you exclude the stats of the second string defense (which I do), which finished off some blowout wins, and I rate the Texas defense at 1.5 yprp better than average, 1.9 yppp better than average and 1.7 yppl better than average.

The Texas defense actually rates 0.2 yppl better than the Alabama defense, but the Crimson Tide proved that they can move the ball against a good defensive unit while Texas did not. Bama gained 508 yards at 6.5 yppl against Virginia Tech, 6.7 yppl against South Carolina, 6.9 yppl against LSU, and 7.3 yppl against a Florida defense that ranks among the best in the nation even without star DE Dunlap, who didn't play for the Gators due to suspension. Alabama also had a few games in which they didn't move the ball as well, averaging 4.7 yppl at Ole' Miss (which is actually 0.5 yppl more than Mississippi's defense would normally give up at home), 4.3 yppl against Tennessee, and 4.3 yppl at Auburn. However, Alabama's offense averaged a combined 6.2 yppl against good defensive teams (which would combine to allow 4.6 yppl to an average team) and their +1.6 yppl rating in those games is actually higher than their overall rating of +1.4 yppl. The Tide also had one of their best offensive games of the year against the best defense that they faced all season in their SEC Championship Game win over Florida.

Like their offense, the Texas defense also played relatively worse against better competition, as the Longhorns were only 0.7 yppl better than average defensively against the 5 good offensive teams that they faced (teams that were at least 0.5 yppl better than average). Those teams were Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, and Texas A&M and the Longhorns allowed 5.3 yppl to those 5 teams, who would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team. Texas only faced one really good rushing team all season and Texas A&M racked up 212 yards at 5.7 yards per rushing play against the Horns. Texas also wasn't as good defensively against better than average passers, allowing 5.6 yppp to the 7 better than average quarterbacks that they faced, who would combine to average 6.9 yppp against an average defensive team. While being 1.3 yppp better than average is very good, it is not as good as the Longhorns' overall pass defense rating of 1.9 yppp better than average, which was helped out by dominating mediocre and bad passing teams.

Based on the profile analysis for the Texas defense, which plays relatively worse against better offensive teams, the Crimson Tide offense is expected to produce 338 yards at 5.4 yppl in this game. In addition to the advantage on both sides of the ball, Alabama is also less likely to turn the ball over. Texas does have outstanding special teams, which I rate as 2 points better than Alabama's pretty mediocre special teams (aside from their excellent kicker). Overall the math favors Alabama by 7 1/2 points in this game with a total of 44 1/2 points. I'll lean with Alabama and I'd consider the Crimson Tide a Strong Opinion at -3 or less. I have no opinion on the total, but would lean Under at 47 points or higher.

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

ONE & ONLY 5* COLLEGE FB GAME OF THE YEAR = TEXAS

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne's Bowls & Playoffs
Thursday, January 07, 2010
BCS Championship Game

7*Texas (+4) over Alabama
8:00 PM -- Citi BCS National Championship Game

4*Denver (-13) over New Orleans
9:00 PM -- Magness Arena

[Mr. IWS]

Larry's 26-CLUB Play (9-2 LIFETIME in BCS!)
When the stage is the BIGGEST, Larry has been at his BEST. In fact, this 26-year vet. has gone 9-2 LIFETIME since the BCS Championship began in 1998. In 2007, he won his 23-Club play on Florida. In 2008, he nailed his 24-Clup on LSU and last year, he hit his 25-Club on Florida. It's only fitting that his final 26-CLUB comes on Alabama/Texas!


Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

NOTE:

Would you lay -180 to -200 in baseball with the Yankees if you thought there was no way they were going to lose? Would the risk be worth the reward?

Absolutely you would.

And that is exactly why my top play is 'Bama on the money line, with a pair of plays on 'Bama for the game and 'Bama in the first half.

I feel at the value the money line is, it's too good to pass up.

I did the same thing with the Seattle-Pittsburgh Super Bowl making my top play the Steelers on the money line, with a secondary play on the Steelers -4 1/2 for the game, which is pretty much right around what this number is tonight.

I am doing the same thing today, but the only difference is I am playing Alabama in the first half as well as the game with my top play being Alabama on the money line.

It's very rare in the BCS National Championship game you get a money line less than 200 so with the price being what it is, it's just to good to pass up.

So all my eggs are with Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide to get the job done in the first half, get the job done in the game and just in case their is some backdoor madness, the money line is my top play.

100 DIME - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE MONEY LINE PLAY
25 DIME - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE 1ST HALF PLAY
25 DIME - ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS

I just don't see Alabama losing this game tonight.

And because I don't see them losing, I can't pass up this great money line price in a big game like this.

While watching Florida just destroy Cincinnati, and Tebow have the game of his career, I just kept saying to myself Alabama held this team to 13 points.

What was even more impressive was the offensive game plan in which Nick Saban and his staff came up with in attacking the Florida defense, a defense I feel is better than this Texas defense.

The Crimson Tide had 251 yards rushing versus Florida and 239 yards passing for 490 yards total offense and that was against the 4th best defense in the country backed by SEC speed. Texas comes in #3.

You look at Alabama's run through the SEC and you will see the most points they gave up in a game were 24 the first game of the year to Virginia Tech and they allowed that while giving up only 155 yards total offense.

Most of the Hokies points were set up as a result of special teams.

In every single game this year Alabama's defense showed up and played hard. Played with intensity. Played as if their lives depended on it and that is a credit to Saban and his staff. They have taken nothing for granted all year.

The most yards 'Bama gave up this entire year was 341 to Tennessee, 335 to Florida, 332 to Auburn and 302 to Kentucky. They only allowed three teams to get over a 100 yards rushing and only 4 teams to throw over 200 yards.

They are a model of consistency all year long. I can't say the same about Texas and the only evidence I need is the last 2 games of the year.

On the road at Texas A&M, a team that was completely manhandled and dominated by SEC conference Georgia 44-20, the Longhorns gave up 190 yards rushing, 342 yards pass for a total of 532 yards.

From that game they went into the Big 12 Championship Game, and forgot how to play offense against Nebraska being held to 18 yards rushing and 184 passing for 202 total yards while allowing 9 sacks.

You are supposed to be peaking at the end of the year, not allowing the Texas A&M's of the world to shred you, nor struggle to muster up 13 points and 200 yards offense in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Folks, this isn't a great Texas offensive line. It's average at best as evidenced by the fact Texas has had rushing games of 46 yards at home to Colorado, 99 on the road at Oklahoma State, 67 at home to Central Florida.

In there two games versus defenses that you would


say are comparable to Alabama are Oklahoma and Nebraska and I just find it a bit ironic both of those defenses held Texas to 13 points.

For me I just can't get past the 202 total yards Texas had against Nebraska last game of the year and just how badly they looked all game long offensively rushing, passing and protecting the quarterback.

The defense Texas will see tonight and the speed in which it occupies the field with is faster than Nebraska and I don't care how much time you have to prepare for it, your practice squad can simulate SEC speed in a million years.

If Alabama plays with the same intensity it did against Florida, and I have every reason to believe they will, there isn't a single ounce of doubt in my mind they win this game by double digits.

I saw all I needed to see in 'Bama's dominant win over Florida, and the Texas struggles offensively versus Nebraska and Oklahoma while allowing a young A&M team to put up 39 points on them to put me on the Crimson Tide tonight.

I keep hearing about Texas being the # 1 rush defense in the country but hell, Missouri had the 12th ranked rush defense and Navy ran for close to 400 yards on them.

So trust me folks, you can have all the great defensive statistics you want playing in the Big 12 but let's not confuse Big 12 speed with the SEC because it's like comparing apples to oranges. It really is.

These two conferences have met this bowl season and you have all you need to know to validate the above point.

Georgia completely outclassed Texas A&M 44-20 and Ole Miss outclassed Oklahoma State 21-7 and you could see the speed difference all over the field.

I dare use the word overrated, but in this case I feel Texas is highly overrated and as I said above, I just can't get past the lack of intensity in which Texas played with against Texas A&M.

If that had been Alabama, the young Aggies wouldn't have sniffed 20 points let alone 39.

My last point is this. Greg McElroy found himself in the last drive against Auburn. He found his confidence. He became the leader his teammates have been waiting for him to become all year long and you saw his maturity in the SEC Championship Game.

I expect Heisman Trophy winner Ingram to have success running the football, get McElroy in play action and for Alabama to do what it has done all year long when laying a single digit number and that is cover it.

Last year they covered all 3 single digit numbers and this year they laid 6 1/2 to Virginia Tech and won by 10, they laid -4 at Ole Miss and won 22-3 and laid 7 1/2 to LSU and won by 9 making it 6 in a row.

I'm not taking anything away from Mack Brown, but you can't give Nick Saban time to prepare for you with the personnel he has because he will own you as he proved with his gameplan versus Florida.

With the same amount of time to prepare Mack Brown and his staff failed miserably against Nebraska offensively as they were unprepared and were dominated and were lucky to win the football game.

I am going to war with the better team, with the better coach, with the better defense, with the better special teams, with the Heisman Trophy winner, and flat out the better all around team.

You don't beat the defending National Champions on a neutral field as dominantly as you did and go on to lose the National Championship game to Texas. You just don't.

And I will live or die with the SEC over the Big 12 any day of the week.

Alabama Crimson Tide across the board for me tonight in the first half, for the game and on the money line.

FREE SELECTION - TEXAS-ALABAMA UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

War's no limit write up
heres the write up... 7* is a no limit play

ALABAMA vs. TEXAS:
Colt McCoy is the winningest quarterback in college football history, the author of a 45-7 record and one win away from becoming the game’s crown prince. He will try to write the final chapter to this fairy tale Thursday when No. 2 Texas meets No. 1 Alabama for the BCS championship at the Rose Bowl. The Longhorns have won plenty behind the slender 6-foot-2 son of a coach. McCoy is the only player in NCAA history to collect 10 or more victories in each of his four seasons. Though he doesn’t like to talk about personal accomplishments, his stat sheet is staggering: 70.3 percent career completion percentage, 112 touchdown passes, 13,244 passing yards, 155.0 passer rating. He’s captured just about every trophy there is – save the Heisman and the crystal ball that goes to the BCS champ. Alabama sophomore running back Mark Ingram came away with the Heisman this year. “If I was playing for the Heisman Trophy I’d have quit a long time ago,” McCoy said. “I don’t play for awards. I don’t play to be individually honored. "Ultimately we’re playing for the national championship. That was the goal from the beginning for our team. It’s going to be special Thursday night.” And Wayne Allyn Root couldn't agree more!! To leave as champions McCoy will have to avert Alabama’s defensive pressure by scrambling, running the option and getting rid of passes quickly. His roommate and top receiving target Jordan Shipley will play a key role in keeping the Tide defense honest. WAR likes the fact that the Longhorns have been in this situation. He remembers the "07 game. He thinks their experience is invaluable. They are the Texas 10, seven scholarship guys and three walk-ons who remember exactly where they stood on the Longhorns sideline at the Rose Bowl the night Vince Young bolted into the end zone and won a national
championship. But WAR has the "nugget", the "gem" that will launch this Texas team to victory...their DEFENSE. Granted, Bama has a great "D" that all are aware, but it's Texas' Defense that will shut down Bama's average offense, key on the running game and put up enough points offensively to get to the winners circle!!
WAR says to take Texas as a No Limit game

[Mr. IWS]

Ppp
3% Texas

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer - Scott Spreitzer's **BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR!** (11-3, 79% All-Time) Jan. 7
(267) TEXAS (+4.0, ov45.5)
(268) ALABAMA (-4.0, un45.5)
Thursday, Jan 07 2010, 05:10 PM PST
Take " (267) TEXAS "
I'm taking the points with Texas on Thursday night. In a battle between two comparable and outstanding defenses, I'm going to grab the more diverse offense with the better QB. Yes, Greg McElroy had his moments during the season's stretch run and in the SEC title game. But his offense will be facing the most ferocious run defense they have seen all season when they line up against Texas. The Longhorns own the best run defense in the nation, allowing just 62.9 yards rushing per game and less than 190 yards passing per game. McElroy will have to make his share of big plays to win this game. That's going to be especially tough against a team that has 41 sacks on the season, due mostly to their outstanding defensive line. Then there's the opportunistic Longhorn secondary that's tops in the nation with 24 interceptions. WR Julio Jones had hamstring issues for much of the season, but he's healthy for the championship game. But if Mark Ingram and Greg McElroy are bottled up and harrassed, Jones will not be able to provide a lot of help. It's a good receiving corps, by the way, but not a great one. As far as the Texas' offense is concerned, it may not have felt like it then, but the Longhorns may have received just what they needed when they were smacked in the chops by Nebraska's defense in the Big-12 championship. Because of that game, Mack Brown and staff have made some adjustments on the line. Accroding to reports, the Alabama defense may be in for more quick-hitters from McCoy than normal. I also expect to see more counters than they offered in the running game. Texas employs a deep running game with four players rushing for more than 300 yards this season, including McCoy's 348. Jordan Shipley gets all of the ink at wideout, but Texas is also deep at wide receiver. Four players have at least 445 yards receiving. And as mentioned, Texas had to deal with Nebraska's defense. The Tide may own a better number in a statistical category or two, but their defense will be no better than UT already saw in that game. I can't stress how much that contest will have helped this Texas offense. The Longhorns own a huge advantage on special teams. They're the #1 team in the nation with seven touchdown returns, and kicking is also a major strength. Bama has struggled in coverage, allowing almost 26 yards per return and gave up a couple of returns for scores. Texas is a perfect 3-0 SU in BCS bowls, including one championship under Brown. Nick Saban owns a championship ring with LSU, but he's just 4-6 SU/ATS in bowl games. The Longhorns are on a 20-8-1 ATS run as a dog, including 4-0 the last four times. They're 10-5 ATS as a dog under Brown, with NINE outright wins. The Longhorns have also won five straight bowl games with Brown calling the shots. I grade these defenses as being virtually even. I give Texas a strong edge on offense, thanks to a huge edge with McCoy over McElroy. Texas also owns the better receiving corps, and isn't limited to one runner out of the backfield. Mack Brown gets his sixth straight bowl win and his second "mythical" national title, in impressive fashion. I'm taking the points with Texas, my Bowl Game of the Year. Thanks! GL! Scott.