View Full Version : Odds Up: GSP/Hardy, Mir/Carwin
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/236.png
If Carwin's odds can get just a little better then I think he's worth a unit. I've seen some non-UFC vids with him and his wrestling is no joke so I think Mir may have a hard time in the grappling department, and if Mir feels Carwin's death touch then it could be lights out. Considering the fact that Mir will probably be even MORE confident in his striking now than ever, I think he's going to make the mistake of standing and trading, at least at first.
I think that after Mir's destruction of Kongo he may be overvalued by the public. I'm going to hang back and see what happens.
I'll take Mir at those odds
I'll take Mir at those odds
Go get 'em, tiger.
This is the same mentality that I hope are going to drive Carwin's line up.
Mr. IWS
01-08-2010, 06:38 PM
Nice find!
Will be on GSP, even at that price, but I really hope it comes down.
Nice find!
Will be on GSP, even at that price, but I really hope it comes down.
GSP should murder Hardy, but it's a rare day that I take anything at -500.
I'm not taking GSP at that, and Carwin is still too much of an unknown to me.
I've changed my mind. Mir is going to beat Carwin's ass. His striking is better and his ground game is far better. I don't see wrestling being much of a factor as Frank will land on Carwin early and often, making takedowns easy.
Carwin's best chance is to land a big shot, which he of course could do but I don't see it. I may take Mir at that.
MMA_scientist
01-08-2010, 08:27 PM
I still do not trust Mir. I cannot picture that fight playing out, no bet for me.
I will take GSP if he drops to -450 or so.
I still do not trust Mir. I cannot picture that fight playing out, no bet for me.
I will take GSP if he drops to -450 or so.
It's tough but mainly because Carwin is so unknown.
Carwins up to +145 on Bodog.
If he hits +150 then I'm doing 1u.
Why do you think it's a mistake to stand with Carwin?
I mean yeah, if he hits you it's probably game over, but he just throws 1-2s pretty much exclusively and doesn't appear to have a great chin himself.
Why do you think it's a mistake to stand with Carwin?
I mean yeah, if he hits you it's probably game over, but he just throws 1-2s pretty much exclusively and doesn't appear to have a great chin himself.
Carwin's punch = Dim Mak.
You say Carwin doesn't appear to have a great chin, and I've seen him look a little out of sorts after taking a hit, but he's undefeated so I'll give his chin the benefit of the doubt for now.
Mir's standup definitely seems improved, but he's not a standup fighter and he definitely doesn't have the kind of power that Carwin does. He will probably hit Carwin more than Carwin will hit him, but the thing about Carwin is that he only has to hit him ONCE. Did you see the way he put Gonzaga down? He can do the same to Mir. Remember that Mir was KOd by Vera of all people.
Well, I am a man of my word. Just dropped 1u on Carwin at +150. If by some chance he hits +200 then I'll drop another .5u on him.
It's interesting to watch Carwin's line movement.
He's going up on Bodog, but down on Sportsbook.
Damn people are piling on GSP too.
BTW SPX your best friend Mike Hammersmith thinks it's an even fight with a slight edge to Carwin.
BTW SPX your best friend Mike Hammersmith thinks it's an even fight with a slight edge to Carwin.
Damn, all right, let me hedge out and get on Mir. . .
No, seriously, that guy was pretty on target for MOST of his predictions for 107, so that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Mr. IWS
01-09-2010, 07:50 PM
BTW SPX your best friend Mike Hammersmith thinks it's an even fight with a slight edge to Carwin.
That dude is going "ttt" crazy in his two threads...LOL
GSP is starting to get out of my price range for that fight.
That dude is going "ttt" crazy in his two threads...LOL
Ha ha, I had to go check that shit out. Funny as hell.
Again, he and I are at odds. I hope he's wrong about Henderson and Roop. They must lose! Especially Roop. . .
rofl that ttt shit is awesome.
Nobody wants to read his shitty picks.
UKDonkbet
01-09-2010, 10:55 PM
That dude is going "ttt" crazy in his two threads...LOL
Ha ha, I had to go check that shit out. Funny as hell.
Again, he and I are at odds. I hope he's wrong about Henderson and Roop. They must lose! Especially Roop. . .
Who picked Roop?
Who picked Roop?
The same guy who said that JDS/Yvel was an "even" fight and that Kampmann was "unlikely to win" his fight with Volkmann.
I asked him about it in his thread on Sherdog and he said:
I like Eddie Wineland as a fighter, and made a killing off of his last fight with Tapia, where he was a +125 dog. The thing is, he's just not a complete fighter, and has a lot of trouble with wrestlers. Roop is a solid wrestler, both in the clinch and with shots, and while a lot is being made of his dramatic weight cut, he never cut weight to fight at LW. Even as an undersized LW, he still did marginally well in the UFC against lower tier fighters. Enjoying a size advantage, he should be able to outwork and outwrestle Wineland for a decision.
I think it'll be close, but at +220 for Roop, it's a no-brainer to take him, given I think he wins 55-60% of the time.
And here's his blog for the event. . .
http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-m ... -odds.html (http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-mma/3565-wec-46-varner-vs-henderson-breakdown-prediction-a-betting-odds.html)
Speaking of George Roop's lanky ass at 135...
Good fucking god.
http://www.combatlifestyle.com/pics/albums/010910wec/1010.jpg
Speaking of George Roop's lanky ass at 135...
Good fucking god.
God, I hope he gets knocked the fuck out.
UKDonkbet
01-10-2010, 12:24 AM
Who picked Roop?
The same guy who said that JDS/Yvel was an "even" fight and that Kampmann was "unlikely to win" his fight with Volkmann.
I asked him about it in his thread on Sherdog and he said:
I like Eddie Wineland as a fighter, and made a killing off of his last fight with Tapia, where he was a +125 dog. The thing is, he's just not a complete fighter, and has a lot of trouble with wrestlers. Roop is a solid wrestler, both in the clinch and with shots, and while a lot is being made of his dramatic weight cut, he never cut weight to fight at LW. Even as an undersized LW, he still did marginally well in the UFC against lower tier fighters. Enjoying a size advantage, he should be able to outwork and outwrestle Wineland for a decision.
I think it'll be close, but at +220 for Roop, it's a no-brainer to take him, given I think he wins 55-60% of the time.
And here's his blog for the event. . .
http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-m ... -odds.html (http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-mma/3565-wec-46-varner-vs-henderson-breakdown-prediction-a-betting-odds.html)
wow I don't know what to say. I don't see a path to victory for Roop really. Wineland hands are excellent and Roop isn't really great on his feet. The wrestlers Wineland has had trouble way outclass Roop as a wrestler. All of Wineland's losses come against top level talent. As for JDS and Yvel being equal, wow I thought that was the second most misplaced MMA line all year, thats why I bet enough to clear 6.5u profit. Number one being BJ opening at -190 against Diego
Who picked Roop?
The same guy who said that JDS/Yvel was an "even" fight and that Kampmann was "unlikely to win" his fight with Volkmann.
I asked him about it in his thread on Sherdog and he said:
I like Eddie Wineland as a fighter, and made a killing off of his last fight with Tapia, where he was a +125 dog. The thing is, he's just not a complete fighter, and has a lot of trouble with wrestlers. Roop is a solid wrestler, both in the clinch and with shots, and while a lot is being made of his dramatic weight cut, he never cut weight to fight at LW. Even as an undersized LW, he still did marginally well in the UFC against lower tier fighters. Enjoying a size advantage, he should be able to outwork and outwrestle Wineland for a decision.
I think it'll be close, but at +220 for Roop, it's a no-brainer to take him, given I think he wins 55-60% of the time.
And here's his blog for the event. . .
http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-m ... -odds.html (http://www.mmamafia.net/news/featured-mma/3565-wec-46-varner-vs-henderson-breakdown-prediction-a-betting-odds.html)
wow I don't know what to say. I don't see a path to victory for Roop really. Wineland hands are excellent and Roop isn't really great on his feet. The wrestlers Wineland has had trouble way outclass Roop as a wrestler. All of Wineland's losses come against top level talent. As for JDS and Yvel being equal, wow I thought that was the second most misplaced MMA line all year, thats why I bet enough to clear 6.5u profit. Number one being BJ opening at -190 against Diego
Yeah that's why we're ripping on him. He gave SPX a bunch of shit about being an amateur, basically, yet he offers some of the most backwards analysis I've seen.
UKDonkbet
01-10-2010, 05:20 AM
Yeah that's why we're ripping on him. He gave SPX a bunch of shit about being an amateur, basically, yet he offers some of the most backwards analysis I've seen.
Calling someone an amateur when they call JDS-Yvel even. ha too funny. So I take it he laid money on Yvel if the fight was even since it was a mispriced line? Sounds professional to me
Fuck anyone who gets SPX. Now I really hope Wineland wins.
Mr. IWS
01-10-2010, 10:33 AM
Was Roop in a concentration camp? WTF?
Calling someone an amateur when they call JDS-Yvel even. ha too funny. So I take it he laid money on Yvel if the fight was even since it was a mispriced line? Sounds professional to me
Fuck anyone who gets SPX. Now I really hope Wineland wins.
You remember this guy. . . It's the same dude that I posted those excerpts from over on the Junkie forum. You might remember that he said:
You don't have a solid understanding of gambling. I'm one of the better at fight predictions on the net, and still lost my shirt gambling until a couple years ago. Gambling requires a firm understanding of gambling itself, just as much as an understanding of fights. With the way you recommend playing your bets, you'll likely hover around a 5%-10% gain or loss every event, with occasional large drops. You simply don't spread your bets out enough to cover yourself if something happens to a favorite, and don't bet nearly enough dogs in very competitive fights. Yvel and Volkmann are both solid underdog bets, but you've defied gambling logic by taking Dos Santos at -300 in a nearly even fight, and Kampmann at -240 in a fight he's unlikely to win. While it's possible both men win, your gain isn't worth the play, in my book.
and
In short, Kampmann doesn't have the power to take Volkmann out, and on the mat, Volkmann is a clear favorite, as a no-gi World grappling champion and three time All-American out of a tough camp. Kampmann is a strong grappler, but not at the same level. I doubt this fight will be finished either way, but I do believe Volkmann controls the ground fight and avoids harm on the feet to take a decision.
As for these other gamblers encouraging huge bets on Dos Santos at -300, they have more money than sense. With two heavyweight knockout strikers using 4 oz gloves, I wouldn't bet on either fighter at more than -150. Its smarter to put 1u on Yvel at +220 and save 4u than it is to put 5u on Dos Santos to make almost nothing in his victory, and loss a fortune in defeat.
Was Roop in a concentration camp? WTF?
Seriously.
I hope Wineland goes all Hitler on his ass.
Speaking of George Roop's lanky ass at 135...
Good fucking god.
http://www.combatlifestyle.com/pics/albums/010910wec/1010.jpg
I just found this in an article:
Amazingly, the 6-foot-1 Roop (10-5), who normally walks around at 170 pounds, decided that he could drop yet another weight class, so he'll make his WEC debut at 135 pounds. To get there, Roop is consuming only between 500-800 calories a day. As if he hadn't sacrificed enough, through the holidays, as friends and family around him were gorging and feasting, Roop was munching on rice cakes, or chicken breasts or salads.
That shit's not healthy.
Even Corey Hill thinks he needs a sandwich.
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