UFN 20 Bets

[SPX]

Throw 'em up!

Maynard: 3u to win 1u
Sadollah: 1.5u to win 1u
Simpson: 2.5u to win 1u
Harris: 1u to win .38u
Dunham: .5u to win 1.05u
Silva: .25u to win .46u

And just for fun, a SuperParlay: Wineland, Shalorus, Varner, Dos Anjos, Harris, Maynard, Sadollah, Simpson: .25u to win 7.55u

[SPX]

Whoops. . . Left one off:

Rafael Dos Anjos: 2.5u to win .69u

[triathlete]

A. Simpson -260: 2.5u
G. Harris -265: 2u
J. Silva +145: .5u
Dos Anjos -340: Still waiting to see if I can squeeze a little more out of this one. 3u
A. Sadollah -160: Still trying to convince myself on this one. 1u

Maynard for 3u, eh? I have this universe balancing thought in my head that he's due to win... but...

[MMA_scientist]

5U on A. Simpson @ -250
5U on Dos Anjos @ -305

1U = 1% of bankroll

[SPX]

Maynard for 3u, eh? I have this universe balancing thought in my head that he's due to win... but...

I think Maynard has improved dramatically since the first time they fought and it's pretty obvious at this point that Diaz has a problem with strong wrestlers. After watching Diaz/Guida and Diaz/Stevenson, it seems to be that Maynard is the only logical choice.

Why did you bet on Harris? I did as well, but it's kind of a leap of faith. There's not a whole lot of info out there in Salter.

[The HOFF]

Brad Blackburn +135 (6.5u to win 8.775u)
Rory MacDonald -215 (4.3u to win 2u)
Nate Diaz +245 (2u to win 4.9u)
Evan Dunham +210 (2u to win 4.2u)

Depending on how WEC goes I will be adding to MacDonald.

[triathlete]

Why did you bet on Harris? I did as well, but it's kind of a leap of faith. There's not a whole lot of info out there in Salter.

Couple reasons: (I don't promise they are good ones)

1) I put 2u on him because that was the minimum bet I could place. I'm playing with dollar bills right now while I learn.
2) He's on a little bit of a run
3) I like his style. According to Wikipedia, he called into a radio show where Dana White was a guest, told him about his streak, and scored a 4 fight contract. I think he'll want to show Dana it wasn't a bad move.
4) I've read opinions on a few forums that he was worth a small bet.

... that, and just trying strategies out :)

3

[SPX]

Even though I have a small bet on Silva, WAR LEBEN!



The flamboyant Chris Leben made a name for himself as the most controversial and outspoken personality on The Ultimate Fighter due to his tough-guy attitude contrasted by his propensity to shed tears. Leben's life story unfolded on television and those watching could see the the drunken train wreck that took place. Shortly after the show, the 29 year-old swore off alcohol and rebuilt his life around mixed martial arts. Unfortunately, since the transition, Leben has not experienced much success.

Now 8-5 inside the Octagon, Leben believes if he loses to Jay Silva at Ultimate Fight Night 20, he could be released from the UFC. The Oregon native is coming off two-straight losses and is a dismal 2-4 in his last six outings. Knowing what is at stake, Leben is prepared to lay everything on the line Monday Night.

"I'm going to fight my heart out," said Leben. "I love to stand up and bang with guys. This is a make it or break it for me. I have to lay it all on the line. When it comes Monday night, I'm going to go out there with bad intentions, I'm going to go out there with the belief that if I don't win, I go home. I'm not in the UFC anymore and that's not what I want. I need to win. I have to win. Expect some fireworks Monday night."

"The Crippler" is set to fight Jay Silva (5-2) who lost in his UFC debut against CB Dollaway at Ultimate Fight Night 19. Silva is primarily a striker but Leben is confident he will reign supreme wherever the fight takes him.

"If it goes to the ground we'll go to the ground," Leben said. "I see this fight as, he's tough all around but he's not really great at any one area."


http://www.fiveknuckles.com/mma-news/Ch ... e-UFC.html (http://www.fiveknuckles.com/mma-news/Chris-Leben-believes-he-must-defeat-Jay-Silva-to-avoid-being-cut-by-the-UFC.html)

[zY|]

Why is that fight on the undercard?

[SPX]

Why is that fight on the undercard?

Probably because Leben has been sucking lately and no one knows who Silva is.

[SPX]

\
Couple reasons: (I don't promise they are good ones)

1) I put 2u on him because that was the minimum bet I could place. I'm playing with dollar bills right now while I learn.
2) He's on a little bit of a run
3) I like his style. According to Wikipedia, he called into a radio show where Dana White was a guest, told him about his streak, and scored a 4 fight contract. I think he'll want to show Dana it wasn't a bad move.
4) I've read opinions on a few forums that he was worth a small bet.

... that, and just trying strategies out :)

3

Well I've been gunning for Harris to get into the UFC for a while now so I hope like hell he wins this fight. He's a fucking bad ass. He should've got a shot after TUF, but shit happens, I guess.

[UKDonkbet]

Why is that fight on the undercard?

Probably because Leben has been sucking lately and no one knows who Silva is.


No one knows who Silva is?

[SPX]

No one knows who Silva is?

Do they?

[UKDonkbet]

No one knows who Silva is?

Do they?

Oh yeah. sure. He's a known guy. "Meanest Man in MMA" award winner

[SPX]

Oh yeah. sure. He's a known guy. "Meanest Man in MMA" award winner

Interesting. I've never heard of him.

[The HOFF]

Brad Blackburn +135 (6.5u to win 8.775u)
Rory MacDonald -215 (4.3u to win 2u)
Nate Diaz +245 (2u to win 4.9u)
Evan Dunham +210 (2u to win 4.2u)

Depending on how WEC goes I will be adding to MacDonald.

Doubled one bet:

Rory MacDonald -215 (8.6u to win 4u)

[SPX]

Doubled one bet:

Rory MacDonald -215 (8.6u to win 4u)

You make massive bets. Does 1u=1% of your bankroll?

[SPX]

By the way, I just realized that I've passed 1000 posts. Do I get something? Like, a prize of some sort?

[The HOFF]

You make massive bets. Does 1u=1% of your bankroll?

Yes.
The reason I went ahead and doubled this one is because I hit my biggest WEC bet.

[MMA_scientist]

Why did you bet on Harris? I did as well, but it's kind of a leap of faith. There's not a whole lot of info out there in Salter.

Couple reasons: (I don't promise they are good ones)

1) I put 2u on him because that was the minimum bet I could place. I'm playing with dollar bills right now while I learn.
2) He's on a little bit of a run
3) I like his style. According to Wikipedia, he called into a radio show where Dana White was a guest, told him about his streak, and scored a 4 fight contract. I think he'll want to show Dana it wasn't a bad move.
4) I've read opinions on a few forums that he was worth a small bet.

... that, and just trying strategies out :)

3


Salter is going to be a tough matchup. Gerald should KO him though standing... but I doubt Gerald is going to have alot of success in the clinch and takedowns. I went out to look for some info on Salter:

"John Salter: I started wrestling when I was 12 years old. I won a state title in high school, went to college, wrestled at Lindenwood University for four years in St. Louis, MO, and when I was a senior in college, I won the Nationals. It was then that I decided I didn’t want to stop competing, so I got into Jiu-Jitsu and kickboxing and [then] got into MMA. A couple months ago, I started training in Tuscaloosa at HeadHunter Combatives and started getting ready to fight anybody – getting good coaching and great training partners. We’re ready...

JS: The big thing I think that I have is that I’m a National Championship wrestler. There have only been three from Alabama ever, so I feel like I have that over anybody else that’s around here, and I feel like I can take anybody down whenever I want to. I’m a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but I have beaten people like Roan Carnerio, who’s a black belt in the UFC, so I feel like I can hang with anyone on the ground. And I feel like my stand-up’s not bad, but I can decide when a fight’s on the feet and when the fight’s on the ground, and I think that helps me in all my fights.

Next MMA Fighter: What’s your signature move or particular fighting style that you think best describes you… without giving away too much of your game plan for Saturday, of course.

JS: I’d say that what I usually have that you can depend on is that I hit a single leg, and everybody knows I’m gonna do it, but I think it surprises everybody at how good I am with it. I’m pretty efficient at what I do, and I haven’t had anybody stop a shot yet in a fight"


http://nextmmafighter.com/?p=203


I tried to find info on Gerald, I guess he was a D1 wrestler... which means he is probably just as good or better wrestler than Salter, but still, it will be interesting if Gerald can't KO him.

[SPX]

I tried to find whatever info I could on Salter and there isn't much. So I put a unit on Harris just taking him on faith. But everything I've seen from Harris has been very impressive. He's been on my radar for awhile now.

[SPX]

Damn, Dos Anjos just hit -500 on Bodog. I never expected that.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah he was -425 on bookmaker this morning... I was lucky, I got him @ -305. I had my line @ -400 for him.

[Mr. IWS]

IWS Shits and Giggles system

Ill bet on one dog per event, $20 per bet. Starting with $100.

UFC Ultimate Fight Night 20 - Welterweight Matchup
Brad Blackburn +120

20 to win 24

Holla at cha boi!

[SPX]

Yeah he was -425 on bookmaker this morning... I was lucky, I got him @ -305. I had my line @ -400 for him.

I FINALLY got a 5dimes account funded the other day--just $50--and I threw the whole deposit on Dos Anjos at -360. I wanted to put it on something that would be a pretty sure bet so that I could go ahead and start getting that account built up. So damn it, Dos Anjos better win!

[SPX]

IWS Shits and Giggles system

Ill bet on one dog per event, $20 per bet. Starting with $100.

UFC Ultimate Fight Night 20 - Welterweight Matchup
Brad Blackburn +120

20 to win 24

Holla at cha boi!

Sounds good, but why Blackburn? I know a lot of people who think that Silva should be the fave in his fight with Leben and I feel that Dunham is a decent bet against Escudero. As for Blackburn though . . . well, I would really like to cheer for you the first time out using the IWS S&G System, but I have 1.5u on Sadollah.

[Mr. IWS]

Just a hunch.

But He is a vet, and been in with much better competition than Amir.

I know ive said this a few times, but Im not sold on Amir yet. He kept getting his ass kicked on Tuf, but to his credit, would come back and win (a la Ric Flar LOL)

His win over CB, was nice ( I was on CB) but CB is a fuckin idiot and has the sub defense of a white belt IMO. Seriously, two times he gets caught against Amir?

His win over Teh best Evaaaaaaaaaaa? Its Baroni, I love him, but its Baroni.

I wont hold the Hendricks loss against him, that was a flash KO, and could have been a questionable stoppage.

Blackburn has been in with Huerta, Hieron, Markham and Chonan to name a few. Not top of the food chain guys, but all better than Amir IMO.

[The HOFF]

Just a hunch.

But He is a vet, and been in with much better competition than Amir.

I know ive said this a few times, but Im not sold on Amir yet. He kept getting his ass kicked on Tuf, but to his credit, would come back and win (a la Ric Flar LOL)

His win over CB, was nice ( I was on CB) but CB is a fuckin idiot and has the sub defense of a white belt IMO. Seriously, two times he gets caught against Amir?

His win over Teh best Evaaaaaaaaaaa? Its Baroni, I love him, but its Baroni.

I wont hold the Hendricks loss against him, that was a flash KO, and could have been a questionable stoppage.

Blackburn has been in with Huerta, Hieron, Markham and Chonan to name a few. Not top of the food chain guys, but all better than Amir IMO.

Yes. And Yes. I actually think Blackburn should be the favorite in this fight. His striking is much more technical than Amir's sloppy muay thai. He should pick him apart and maybe KO him.

[SPX]

Who's gonna be around tonight while the event goes down?

School's back in session and I'm trying to figure out if I'm going to go to class tonight. . .

[triathlete]

Who's gonna be around tonight while the event goes down?

School's back in session and I'm trying to figure out if I'm going to go to class tonight. . .

I am. Whatcha studying?

[SPX]

I am. Whatcha studying?

My major is Communication. Tonight's class, though, is actually . . . Taekwondo.

This is the first class, which is the only reason I'm hesitant to skip it. Why in the FUCK does tonight's even have to be on a Monday night, the ONLY night that I have a class.

[SPX]

At the very least I hope I can get back in time to catch one or two fights, but that will only happen if he lets us out early.

[Mr. IWS]

Who's gonna be around tonight while the event goes down?




Ill probably be around for a bit.

::handshake::

[Luke]

I will be here

[Mr. IWS]

I thought this was on at 8. I wanted to go to bed at 10, Im so fuckin tired today.

[triathlete]

Forgot the undercard started early!

2-0 +5u with Harris and Dos Anjos. Sweet.

[Mr. IWS]

Nice start to the night!

[SPX]

Forgot the undercard started early!

2-0 +5u with Harris and Dos Anjos. Sweet.

Yeah, I saw that earlier. WOOHOO!!

By the way, I am confused about your bets. You say +5u, so when you post your bets, are you posting the amount you are betting or the amount you will win? Because 3u and 2u at the lines you took them at . . . I'm sure you see where I'm going here.

[SPX]

Go to class. . . Stay home and watch UFC. . . Go to class. . . Stay home and watch UFC. . .

Man, FUCK!

[triathlete]

Lay off the new guy, he's still learning. After I read your post, I realized... That's what I risked... not what I won.

I'm an idiot, but elated nonetheless... :D

... adjusting my spreadsheet . . . .

Go to class, kick your instructors ass, get a free pass, go home and watch the fights.

[Luke]

Go to class. . . Stay home and watch UFC. . . Go to class. . . Stay home and watch UFC. . .

Man, FUCK!


DVR it and go to class ::handshake::

[SPX]

Well shit, I was on the bus and headed that way when I realized I left beer in the freezer. That was a good enough excuse to hop off and come back home. Now it's too late to go. . .

[triathlete]

Well shit, I was on the bus and headed that way when I realized I left beer in the freezer. That was a good enough excuse to hop off and come back home. Now it's too late to go. . .

Think of the mess that'd leave if it exploded.... you are compelled to go home and drink the beer to prevent that from happening.

[SPX]

Think of the mess that'd leave if it exploded.... you are compelled to go home and drink the beer to prevent that from happening.

Dude, that's exactly what I was thinking! Gotta rescue that shit.

[Mr. IWS]

::thumbup::

[SPX]

Looks like Leben won by UD. I'm glad to see that, even though I had a little cash on Silva. I knew if Leben lost this one that he'd be out.

[SPX]

And here we go. . .

Where the fuck is zY?

[Mr. IWS]

Just a quick note. Those dog plays Im making, obviously wont be into my YTD that I keep on here. Win or Lose.

[zY|]

I'm here broski.

Glad to see Leben won. WAR CATSMASHER

[zY|]

Anyways I don't have anything on this card.

Looks like a bunch of favorites that should win but too much chalk for me.

I don't care about any of these fighters either so I can just enjoy it.

[SPX]

Woohoo!

The gang's all here.

[SPX]

C'mon Amir! Show this motherfucker some shit!

[zY|]

Is it lame that I'm recording Monday Night Raw with Mike Tyson?

[SPX]

Is it lame that I'm recording Monday Night Raw with Mike Tyson?

Nah, that's understandable. Tyson's up on that shit?

[zY|]

Rogan and Goldy could not suck Amir's cock anymore. It's impossible.

[SPX]

Rogan and Goldy could not suck Amir's cock anymore. It's impossible.

I wonder if they get told to be that way toward certain fighters.

[Mr. IWS]

Amir fucking Blackburn up!

[SPX]

Hell yeah! Pretty close round 'til right there at the end.

[zY|]

Amir is good technician.

[SPX]

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Sadollah
Freddie DeFreitas scores the round 10-9 Sadollah
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Sadollah

[zY|]

Who the fuck is Freddie Defreitas?

[SPX]

Amir is good technician.

He's also very Muay Thai. You can really see it in his stance and way he throws his techniques.

[zY|]

Amir is good technician.

He's also very Muay Thai. You can really see it in his stance and way he throws his techniques.

Yeah that's what I'm saying. Everything he does he does correctly.

And LOL. I say it here it comes out there. Rogan "I'm really impressed by Amir's technique"

[triathlete]

*slurp* *slurp* Look at the way his cock shifts so controlled in his pants while he kicks. Amir was training for that in Thailand the past 6 mos... he couldn't look better, Joe!

[Mr. IWS]

LOL @ Blackburns take down attempts.

[zY|]

*slurp* *slurp* Look at the way his cock shifts so controlled in his pants while he kicks. Amir was training for that in Thailand the past 6 mos... he couldn't look better, Joe!
::lmao::

[SPX]

Close round.

[SPX]

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Sadollah
Freddie DeFreitas scores the round 10-9 Sadollah
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Sadollah

[zY|]

Amir seriously hunting for a sub.

[SPX]

what the fuck is Amir doing?

[zY|]

He's clearly trying to mount and sub this guy.

[Mr. IWS]

Good call on Amir SPX

[SPX]

He's clearly trying to mount and sub this guy.

He should've just knocked him the fuck out when he was wobbling like a bobble head.

[SPX]

Good call on Amir SPX

Thanks a bunch!

Looks like that's a win!

[Mr. IWS]

Cecil Peoples scored it 30-27 Blackburn

Frank Mir scored it 30-27 Miguel Torres

[Mr. IWS]

That canvas must be slippery, or Blackburn was on roller skates...LOL

That dude was rocked a couple times.

[zY|]

Haha man he was doing the fucking chickendance for real.

[SPX]

Frank Mir scored it 30-27 Miguel Torres

He has Mike Brown losing this fight via UD.

[triathlete]

Did Amir say something about the movie Road House? How do you think P. Swayze would have done - inside the Octagon! RIpping throats out and shit. . .

[SPX]

Did Amir say something about the movie Road House? How do you think P. Swayze would have done - inside the Octagon! RIpping throats out and shit. . .

Not as good as Michael Dudikoff. . .

[zY|]

LOL @ Joe Rogan not knowing where to get ANYTHING anyone is smoking.

[SPX]

LOL @ Joe Rogan not knowing where to get ANYTHING anyone is smoking.

I think my stream is just a little behind. .

[Mr. IWS]

I must say, some ugly bitches in that crowd.

Vegas always has teh rotties

[zY|]

You dont' fucking have Spike?

[triathlete]

Alright... got some units on this one... gotta get ready . .

[SPX]

You dont' fucking have Spike?

No, I'm too poor for cable.

[SPX]

Alright... got some units on this one... gotta get ready . .

You got Simpson?

[zY|]

Either quick sub like Dolloway or Filthy Tom is getting knocked out.

[zY|]

Did anyone hear Rogan imply that Couture vs Coleman are competing for a possible title shot?!?

ROFL

[triathlete]

I do. 2.5u at -260

[Mr. IWS]

Did anyone hear Rogan imply that Couture vs Coleman are competing for a possible title shot?!?

ROFL


Will put my 8 year old on Rua or Machida.

[SPX]

I do. 2.5u at -260

Me too, but I got him at -250. Let's cash this shit!

[SPX]

Where the fuck is Luke?

He hasn't said shit in a while. . .

[zY|]

[quote="zY|":38o9kcf2]Did anyone hear Rogan imply that Couture vs Coleman are competing for a possible title shot?!?

ROFL


Will put my 8 year old on Rua or Machida.[/quote:38o9kcf2]

::lmao:: ::lmao::

[zY|]

http://i38.tinypic.com/2uignrl.gif

[triathlete]

My God. . .

[Mr. IWS]

We are fuckin crackin up watching this shit.

[Luke]

simpson getting mucho ass kicked

[zY|]

Damn

Lawlor learned how to counter.

[Luke]

http://i38.tinypic.com/2uignrl.gif


WTF is that?

[Mr. IWS]

I gotta see the stats on how many punches Filthy landed.

This kid got a beard though.

[zY|]

10-8

[Mr. IWS]

That was from TUF Luke. Dude told him to punch him in the face.

[zY|]

http://i38.tinypic.com/2uignrl.gif


WTF is that?

That's from TUF 8.

Diamond Dave Kaplan was drunk as shit saying how he couldn't be knocked out so he got Tom Lawlor to hit him.

[Luke]

Did anyone else score that 10-7 for Simpson?

[Luke]

That was from TUF Luke. Dude told him to punch him in the face.


idiot

[SPX]

Damn.

Lawlor's been working that boxing.

A-Train needs to get his shit together.

[Luke]

Simpson going to get caught and KO'd for good

[Luke]

10-9 Lawler

I got him up 20-17 through 2

[zY|]

Luke, Simpson is the guy getting his ass kicked.

[Mr. IWS]

I got it 19-18

10-8
9-10

[SPX]

I'd give round 2 to Simpson.

[Luke]

Luke, Simpson is the guy getting his ass kicked.


I know


why are you telling me this?

[zY|]

I think Round 2 was 10-10 tbh

[zY|]

Luke, Simpson is the guy getting his ass kicked.


I know


why are you telling me this?


Nice ninja edit

[Luke]

[quote="zY|":3amiqrzk]Luke, Simpson is the guy getting his ass kicked.


I know


why are you telling me this?


Nice ninja edit[/quote:3amiqrzk]


typed the wrong guy ::eyes::

[Mr. IWS]

hahaha ninja edit

[Luke]

This could be close on the cards

[Mr. IWS]

Draw, nice comeback by Fitch, I mean, Simpson.

[zY|]

10-8 Lawlor
10-10
10-9 Simpson

I got this 29-27 Lawlor, at worst a draw.

Bet Simpson will win the decision.

[triathlete]

What happens to a bet on a draw?

[Mr. IWS]

you get your money back. no action.

[Mr. IWS]

Blatnick is judging!

[zY|]

LOL

Bullshit decision.

Exactly as I expected.

[Luke]

LOL robbed

[Mr. IWS]

No way lawlor lost. At worst is was a draw.

[triathlete]

Fuck yeah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[triathlete]

you get your money back. no action.

Got it... thx..

[Luke]

SPX show that sheepish self of yours

[Mr. IWS]

Im out bitches. Have fun.

Good call on Simpson boys.

[SPX]

Oh hell yeah, motherfuckers!

Justfied too! zY you are smoking crack! I give Simpson rounds 2 and 3. Draw at the WORST. Lawlor does not win.

[Luke]

I'm going to watch OU-OSU so I'm out too


good job SPX

[SPX]

Im out bitches. Have fun.

Good call on Simpson boys.

All right, Zak. Peace out, homey.

[SPX]

I'm going to watch OU-OSU so I'm out too


good job SPX

You fucks are going to miss the main event!

[zY|]

Oh hell yeah, motherfuckers!

Justfied too! zY you are smoking crack! I give Simpson rounds 2 and 3. Draw at the WORST. Lawlor does not win.

LOL

You should go judge on the Sherdog forums then, you biased a-hole. ::lmao::

[triathlete]

These three... I could do without. . . I could also do without this ass shaving clip. . .

[zY|]

wtf is this dumb crap?

[SPX]

LOL

You should go judge on the Sherdog forums then, you biased a-hole. ::lmao::

Maybe the difference between us is that I don't believe in 10-8 rounds. I think either you won the round or you didn't. Plus, Simpson never actually got dropped. He was wobbled but never dropped, and it's not like he didn't land any shots of his own.

I give Lawlor round one, Simpson round 2 by a hair, and Simpson dominated round 3 (though admittedly not like Lawlor dominated round 1).

[SPX]

That Bud Light commercial trips me out.

[zY|]

You don't believe in 10-8 rounds?

So if I land 2 more leg kicks than you it counts the same as if I beat you within an inch of your life?

You might want to reevaluate that line of thinking.

Not to mention, whether or not you personally believe in them, the commision DOES, therefore they are legit scoring criteria. I'm scoring the fight within the focus of the rules.

[SPX]

You don't believe in 10-8 rounds?

So if I land 2 more leg kicks than you it counts the same as if I beat you within an inch of your life?

You might want to reevaluate that line of thinking.

Not to mention, whether or not you personally believe in them, the commision DOES, therefore they are legit scoring criteria. I'm scoring the fight within the focus of the rules.

Even so, I think I gave legitimate reasons for why it wasn't a 10-8. Lawlor never even dropped Simpson. For a 10-8, you'd have to do more damage in my opinion.

[SPX]

Come on, Dun Ham!

[zY|]

Actually you didn't give any reasons at all until now, LOL.

If that wasn't 10-8 then they don't exist. Knockdowns don't matter, this isn't boxing.

Whatever. Are you on Dunham or Efrain?

[SPX]

Actually you didn't give any reasons at all until now, LOL.

If that wasn't 10-8 then they don't exist. Knockdowns don't matter, this isn't boxing.

Whatever. Are you on Dunham or Efrain?

First off, I said: "Plus, Simpson never actually got dropped. He was wobbled but never dropped, and it's not like he didn't land any shots of his own." Those are reasons.

Second, don't pretend like knockdowns don't matter in the judges minds. They do.

Third, I'm on Dunham. So cheer for my boy, bitch!

[zY|]

Fuck it. If it was 5 rounds like it should've been he clearly would've lost anyways.

Oh well, unless something crazy happens Tom will get a nice FOTN bonus.

[SPX]

Efrain looks good. Dunham's showing some better-than-expected takedown defense.

[zY|]

See Efrain dropped him and nearly finished him but that was still 10-9

[triathlete]

Dunham is looking much, much better...

[zY|]

Fun fight. Seems like Efrain decided to stop fighting.

[SPX]

Got that one 1-1.

If Dunham wins then I will finish this night at least mildly profitable even if Maynard loses.

[zY|]

Nice.

Dumbass Efrain.

[triathlete]

Good call on Dunham... wow..

[SPX]

Man, I love them dogs.

[SPX]

Good call on Dunham... wow..

Thanks, bro.

[SPX]

No post-fight interview for Dunham?

[zY|]

Ok

So did Bookmaker offer prop bets on Maynard by decision?

[SPX]

Ok

So did Bookmaker offer prop bets on Maynard by decision?

Shit, I'm sure they did but I didn't look.

[triathlete]

2.5 on Maynard at -280.

[SPX]

2.5 on Maynard at -280.

I got 3u at -300.

C'mon Maynard!!!

I don't want a repeat of last night where I have a great night all the way to the main event . . . and then it crashes.

[zY|]

LOL at Maynard eschewing sound strategy in favor of home run punches.

[SPX]

What the fuck is THIS shit???

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-10
Freddie DeFreitas scores the round 10-9 Diaz
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Diaz

[zY|]

First round 10-10, round 2 all Gray.

[SPX]

Jordan Breen scores the round 10-9 Maynard
Freddie DeFreitas scores the round 10-9 Maynard
Mike Fridley scores the round 10-9 Maynard

[zY|]

Ok I don't think eeither of these guys actually care about winning this fight.

[SPX]

Maynard needs to go for the takedown. Fuck worrying about getting subbed.

[SPX]

I have a feeling Maynard's about to give this fight away.

[zY|]

LOL close round.

Shitty fight.

I think Maynard edged it.

[zY|]

LOL at this 29-28 30-27 split decision crap.

[triathlete]

Whew! That was a fuckin' close one. . . boring, though. . .

[SPX]

LOL at this 29-28 30-27 split decision crap.

You remember that WEC fight where one judge gave to one guy 30-27 and the other judge gave it to the other guy 30-27?

[zY|]

Blue Mountain State is insulting my intelligence.

[triathlete]

Well, today was decent. 4-1 +3u

SPX, you came out well, eh?

[triathlete]

Blue Mountain State is insulting my intelligence.

No shit... I turned immediately... stoo-pid ::doh::

[zY|]

I'm offended that this is what the UFC thinks of it's audience.

[triathlete]

I just noticed, at UFC 108 and FN, the only dogs I picked.... I picked wrong. What gives. . .

[SPX]

Well, today was decent. 4-1 +3u

SPX, you came out well, eh?

Yeah, +4.62u overall.

Too many fucking close calls on big money fights for my taste, though.

[SPX]

I just noticed, at UFC 108 and FN, the only dogs I picked.... I picked wrong. What gives. . .

I see you picked Silva for FN. Who did you pick for 108?

And why did you pick these guys?

[zY|]

Good luck in your title shot Frankie Edgar.

[SPX]

Good luck in your title shot Frankie Edgar.

Frankie Edgar's my boy. I hope he has a respectable showing. My money will obviously be on BJ, though.

[triathlete]

At 108 I chose Ludwig... it was a stupid last second bet. To be honest, I don't know why I picked Ludwig. I think I got a little itchy having 4 favs and needed a dog. First time out, you know...

As far as Silva... I honestly didn't think much of Leben... thought he'd gas. Read a few things online that more or less confirmed that it was worth a small bet... Shoulda listened to you on the Escudero fight. .

I just think I need to do more research to get the feel of a good dog bet... just don't have the feel for it.

[SPX]

At 108 I chose Ludwig... it was a stupid last second bet. To be honest, I don't know why I picked Ludwig. I think I got a little itchy having 4 favs and needed a dog. First time out, you know...

As far as Silva... I honestly didn't think much of Leben... thought he'd gas. Read a few things online that more or less confirmed that it was worth a small bet... Shoulda listened to you on the Escudero fight. .

I just think I need to do more research to get the feel of a good dog bet... just don't have the feel for it.

I actually got real gunshy betting dogs early on. The very first event I ever bet on (this was before I knew shit about betting on MMA) I think I bet on 4 underdogs and lost every one of them. Eventually I started floating bets out there on the dogs again and it's been working out for me the past several events. I think you're right, you have to get a feel for it. Watch fights and do your OWN analysis. Pay attention to what others are saying, but that's secondary.

[zY|]

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.

[triathlete]

Yeah... I'm still learning all of that. I'm a little shy at my picks, where I'll think one way, then be heavily influenced by what I read out there. I guess training wheels until I get the feel of all of this. For example, I was going to put a unit on Macdonald.. but then shied away after reading...

Bah... there should be a podcast that shows you how to break fight videos down for use in sports betting . .

[SPX]

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.

I haven't watched wrestling in YEARS, but it seems like it could be fun.

[SPX]

Yeah... I'm still learning all of that. I'm a little shy at my picks, where I'll think one way, then be heavily influenced by what I read out there. I guess training wheels until I get the feel of all of this. For example, I was going to put a unit on Macdonald.. but then shied away after reading...

Bah... there should be a podcast that shows you how to break fight videos down for use in sports betting . .

You just got to pay attention, but even then, I mean damn, you can fuck it all up. Just look at me! I had Simpson and Gray winning dominantly in my head and they both squeaked by with split decisions.

As for betting dogs, I think a big part of it is avoiding hype and seeing what skills the dog has that he can use to exploit weaknesses in the favorite.

For instance, I saw that Dunham had solid striking, good power, and seemed good at using his reach. He also exhibited decent takedown defense against Aurelio and articles I read mentioned that his trainer, Shawn Tompkins, said that he was one of the few guys in the gym who could hang with Gray Maynard in the wrestling department. In regard to Efrain, he is largely untested. Sure, he beat Nover (who has been disappointing) and he beat Cole who has proven that he doesn't have the best chin in the world.

All this demonstrated to me that at +215 Dunham was being undervalued.

[Luke]

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.


RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

[Luke]

At 108 I chose Ludwig... it was a stupid last second bet. To be honest, I don't know why I picked Ludwig. I think I got a little itchy having 4 favs and needed a dog. First time out, you know...

As far as Silva... I honestly didn't think much of Leben... thought he'd gas. Read a few things online that more or less confirmed that it was worth a small bet... Shoulda listened to you on the Escudero fight. .

I just think I need to do more research to get the feel of a good dog bet... just don't have the feel for it.


For me to take a dog I have to believe he has a legit chance of winning ,50/50 or better. Also just because you find a match where you think the dog wins you have to look and see if its a bad matchup or not for him

[zY|]

DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.


RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

nou

[Luke]

Yeah... I'm still learning all of that. I'm a little shy at my picks, where I'll think one way, then be heavily influenced by what I read out there. I guess training wheels until I get the feel of all of this. For example, I was going to put a unit on Macdonald.. but then shied away after reading...

Bah... there should be a podcast that shows you how to break fight videos down for use in sports betting . .

Alot of the time to find a good dog look for a favorite that is more fighting on his name than his past 3 or 4 fights.

Couture ,Bonnar, Ortiz, would come to mind. These fighters lines are probably overvalued so the dog could be a play

[triathlete]

This is all good feedback, and I appreciate you guys taking the time to help coach me along. One of these days, I will be able to substantially contribute :)

[Luke]

[quote="zY|":3ix9l6gf]DVRd and watching RAW now. Shit's great.


RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

nou[/quote:3ix9l6gf]


NOU???

WTF is NOU?

Also what is Blue Mountain State you guys are talking about?

[SPX]

Alot of the time to find a good dog look for a favorite that is more fighting on his name than his past 3 or 4 fights.

Couture ,Bonnar, Ortiz, would come to mind. These fighters lines are probably overvalued so the dog could be a play

Good point for sure and advice to take to heart, but I'd watch out betting against Couture.

[SPX]

This is all good feedback, and I appreciate you guys taking the time to help coach me along. One of these days, I will be able to substantially contribute :)

We're happy to help.

Also, you will learn quickly as long as you put your head into it. The very first event I actually bet on was the Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale about 6 months ago and I have definitely had some ups and downs. It's been a learning experience. I actually had a real rough patch but seemed to have made it through it and (thankfully) have been doing really well lately.

[zY|]

RAW as in WWE??


You're so fucking gay

nou


NOU???

WTF is NOU?

Also what is Blue Mountain State you guys are talking about?

no


u

[MMA_scientist]

+5u for the night for me.

I hate when a fighter comes out with a totally new skill. Since when can Lawlor strike? I think the decision was justifiable though. I think it could be justified the other way too. NOT a robbery.

I read Dos Anjos pretty well schooled Bradley.

Glad I abstained on Diaz, though I do think there was value there.
I need to start betting for value. I knew Dunham was a BA, I should have followed SPX there.

anyway... I will take it. Takes my picks to 18-2 (I still dispute the Sokodjou loss though... I think they poisoned him or something)

[SPX]

I hate when a fighter comes out with a totally new skill. Since when can Lawlor strike? I think the decision was justifiable though. I think it could be justified the other way too. NOT a robbery.


This is EXACTLY what I was thinking on all counts!

What is this striking that Lawlor is doing? Where is this coming from? Thankfully, he continued to demonstrate his good ol' fashioned gas-in-the-third-round strategy. He utilized this effectively in his fight with Kyle Kingsbury.

[SPX]

I need to start betting for value. I knew Dunham was a BA, I should have followed SPX there.


Don't be afraid of the dogs.

In what other area can you lose more picks than you win and yet still come out ahead?

[zY|]

Just rewatched Round 1 of Simpson/Lawler. I still maintain a 10-8. Simpson is a wobbly punching bag for nearly 4 minutes. He eats like a million uppercuts.

[SPX]

Just rewatched Round 1 of Simpson/Lawler. I still maintain a 10-8. Simpson is a wobbly punching bag for nearly 4 minutes. He eats like a million uppercuts.

Maybe so, dude. In the end, this kind of shit is subjective. I'm just glad the official judges saw it differently.

[zY|]

LOL

Homer.

[Mr. IWS]

Well done fellas. Lots of money won last night.

If I was told that Diaz/Maynard was gonna be 3 rounds of boxing, I would have bet on Diaz.

[SPX]

And just for fun, a SuperParlay: Wineland, Shalorus, Varner, Dos Anjos, Harris, Maynard, Sadollah, Simpson: .25u to win 7.55u

Fuck you, Jamie Varner!

[SPX]

If I was told that Diaz/Maynard was gonna be 3 rounds of boxing, I would have bet on Diaz.

At those odds, I would have too. I had no idea Maynard was going to be so scared shitless of Diaz's sub game. Then again, like many wrestlers, he has been relying more and more on his striking game. Just look at the Huerta fight.

[Mr. IWS]

he has been relying more and more on his striking game.

That spells pay window for us if he fights BJ. (see the Dirty Sanchez fight)

BJ might corner the market on opening up vaginas on peoples heads.

[SPX]

I'd just like to announce that after this event, for the first time I've surpassed the 50 unit mark. It's nice to have a little breathing room.

[MMA_scientist]

Congrats. What does that represent growth wise?

[triathlete]

BJ might corner the market on opening up vaginas on peoples heads.

Either I got a boner reading this, or I threw up a little in my mouth. One of the two.

[SPX]

Congrats. What does that represent growth wise?

I first started betting on MMA about 6 months ago. I got a little ahead, and then made some very bad plays on a DREAM card based on nothing but someone else's suggestions, and went from slightly ahead to about 5u behind overnight. At the time I wasn't betting on a lot of fights per card so digging myself out of that took a while and there were a couple of setbacks along the way (Fuck you, Roy Jones Jr!). I finally got back in the black with 107 and between that event and last night's, I've picked up 19 units.

The total of all my deposits into my accounts has been about $750 and right now I have just over $1000. So we're looking at a 25% increase within the last 7 events. I'd like to keep that up.

I have completely dedicated myself to my research lately and have been trying to squeeze every last penny out of every event that I can. The difference is obvious.

[triathlete]

So we're looking at a 25% increase within the last 7 events. I'd like to keep that up.

Better than the market'll get you most normal years. . . and you have more control over it.

[MMA_scientist]

Dude, if you can get 25% per YEAR, you will be rich if you manage it.

[SPX]

Either I got a boner reading this, or I threw up a little in my mouth. One of the two.

Boner.

[MMA_scientist]

So we're looking at a 25% increase within the last 7 events. I'd like to keep that up.

Better than the market'll get you most normal years. . . and you have more control over it.

This is my whole thing. I just want to beat the S&P 500 index, with less volatility. If I happen to get 200%, awesome. But I would be happy with 30%.

[SPX]

Dude, if you can get 25% per YEAR, you will be rich if you manage it.

Didn't you say you've tripled your bankroll twice, both within one year periods?

[SPX]

Now that I look at the date for UFC 107 it looks like that 25% increase came in almost exactly one month.

Damn, if I could do that EVERY month, that shit would be SWEEEEET.

[MMA_scientist]

Dude, if you can get 25% per YEAR, you will be rich if you manage it.

Didn't you say you've tripled your bankroll twice, both within one year periods?

yes. But I basically bet my entire bankroll several times... it was too risky to work over a long period.

That said, I am up about 45% since November (90% based on the 50U I use in my blog).

I did get 600% over 2 years though... but my first few bets were all or nothing plays. I knew better even then, but I wanted to play with more money.

[SPX]

yes. But I basically bet my entire bankroll several times... it was too risky to work over a long period.


You see, I would never do that. I get nervous just making 3u plays. You'll notice I very rarely go over that amount, with the only recent exceptions that I can think of right now being 4u on Faber this weekend, 5u on BJ at 107, and I've got 4u on Marquardt at 109. Oh, and there was 3.5u on Roy Jones Jr. and we know how that turned out.


That said, I am up about 45% since November (90% based on the 50U I use in my blog).


If you were going by your own guidelines of a 50 unit bankroll, would you still make so many 5u plays?

[MMA_scientist]

If you were going by your own guidelines of a 50 unit bankroll, would you still make so many 5u plays?

yeah, I did that up until fairly recently, I was making 10% bets pretty regularly. The way I set my lines, it is still less a lot than full Kelly though.

I am rying to design my system to be low voltility. I don't like losing bets. I used to plat A LOT of poker and I learned a lot about my habits doing that. So I basically try to eliminate every fight where I am not very confident in the outcome. As of yet, I have never experienced more than a 15% dip. I know at some point I will lose a few favorites in a row, it just hasnt happened yet. I have lost several bets in a row, but it has always been on underdogs, so the units werent as much, and it didnt hurt me too much.

[Mr. IWS]

I'd just like to announce that after this event, for the first time I've surpassed the 50 unit mark. It's nice to have a little breathing room.

Well done bro!

[SPX]

yeah, I did that up until fairly recently, I was making 10% bets pretty regularly. The way I set my lines, it is still less a lot than full Kelly though.

I am rying to design my system to be low voltility. I don't like losing bets. I used to plat A LOT of poker and I learned a lot about my habits doing that. So I basically try to eliminate every fight where I am not very confident in the outcome. As of yet, I have never experienced more than a 15% dip. I know at some point I will lose a few favorites in a row, it just hasnt happened yet. I have lost several bets in a row, but it has always been on underdogs, so the units werent as much, and it didnt hurt me too much.

Interesting.

You see, before betting on MMA, most of my gambling experience came from blackjack. I never actively counted cards myself, but I read and studied a lot on card counting, and I know that card counters rely on volume to make their money. For most counters, their edge against the house is usually very low, typically between 1% and 2%. They know they won't win every hand, but over time, even with that tiny edge they will beat the house and will make money. They also know that it's in their benefit to bet on EVERY hand where they have a theoretical advantage, because it's only in the long run that they're going to get rich.

I take the same approach to betting on MMA. I try to bet on EVERY fight where I think I have an edge, because if in fact I am only betting on +EV wagers, then it's to my benefit to not pass up any opportunities. Your method seems to be very effective for you, but I think that in the long run by being so cautious you are actually giving up money in favor of less variance.

Also, I get VERY nervous having such big bets on any fight. I'd usually rather bet 1u on 5 guys that I feel good about than 5u on 1 guy. I guess I just don't like having so many eggs in one basket.

[MMA_scientist]

Interesting.

You see, before betting on MMA, most of my gambling experience came from blackjack. I never actively counted cards myself, but I read and studied a lot on card counting, and I know that card counters rely on volume to make their money. For most counters, their edge against the house is usually very low, typically between 1% and 2%. They know they won't win every hand, but over time, even with that tiny edge they will beat the house and will make money. They also know that it's in their benefit to bet on EVERY hand where they have a theoretical advantage, because it's only in the long run that they're going to get rich.

I take the same approach to betting on MMA. I try to bet on EVERY fight where I think I have an edge, because if in fact I am only betting on +EV wagers, then it's to my benefit to not pass up any opportunities. Your method seems to be very effective for you, but I think that in the long run by being so cautious you are actually giving up money in favor of less variance.

Also, I get VERY nervous having such big bets on any fight. I'd usually rather bet 1u on 5 guys that I feel good about than 5u on 1 guy. I guess I just don't like having so many eggs in one basket.

Yes, I am know I am giving up some money in favor of low variance. But I learned my lesson before... I understand the +EV will play out over time... It is just that I have gambled enough in my life (in both casinos and in the stock market- where I still keep the majority of my assets) to know that my ego/habits/tilt will not allow me to take a string of losses. I would lose a few bets, then start raising the stakes to catch up. I hate the feeling of being down.

I experienced this alot playing poker. Even though I am a +EV player, I never managed to make money consistently because I never properly managed my bankroll. Any time I lose to a lucky river card, I chase the loss. I think it is just in my nature, and after 3 years of playing poker I never could get it whipped. It is not tilt necessarily, I don't get mad, and intellectually I know it will happen, but I just hate losing. So it is more of a habit thing than a money thing.

If you ever listen to Dave Ramsey, he talks a lot about habits. He advocates paying off all of your debt before you invest. This does not make sense mathmatically. You can get a better return on your investment than the juice for the debt many times. But it does feel a lot better, and therefore makes you stick to it. That is his theory.


Here is something else: This guy that won the world poker tour a few years ago... after he won he said he had to pay back his mom the $10k entrance fee (he lived with his mom). Here is this top of the world player, and has to borrow from his mom to enter the tourney. That said to me, skill is not even half of the equation.

[SPX]

^^^^ Good thoughts and some good advice, as well. I actually think that we're not that different in our attitudes, just our approaches. I also hate to lose and hate being down in any significant way, which is why I very rarely make bets that are bigger than 3u and even 3u puts me way on edge. (Really, anything more then 1.5u is considered a "big bet" to me).

It's actually my dislike of losing a lot of money that keeps me from throwing a lot of big bets on guys like you do. You say that eventually you will lose a few favorites in a row . . . you probably will, just as I will (just as I have, actually) . . . and I don't want it to be to the tune of 15 units when it happens. Hence, I spread my money around in the hopes that I will at least win SOME money, or at the very least minimize my losses.

I actually lost 8 fights in a row not too long ago. I went 0-5 at DREAM 11 and 0-3 at MFC 22. These were shady bets that I took mostly because of what I heard from others and/or half-assed research, but still, that's a hell of a lot of losing. I should've done better than that flipping a coin. So shit happens.

[MMA_scientist]

Nothing wrong with that approach at all. I guess I just don't see 5% is that BIG of a bet, when you are looking @ an 75-80% favorite. A lo of guys bet 5% on even odds... against teh monet line, I think 5% is pretty damn conservative really.

[SPX]

Nothing wrong with that approach at all. I guess I just don't see 5% is that BIG of a bet, when you are looking @ an 75-80% favorite. A lo of guys bet 5% on even odds... against teh monet line, I think 5% is pretty damn conservative really.

With a 100 unit bankroll, it's not bad. But if you were playing with your suggested 50 unit bankroll, then that's 10% and that would be rough for me.

Your 5u is a 2.5u for me, which isn't too bad, though I wouldn't want to lose it on a regular basis.

[MMA_scientist]

^^^^ Good thoughts and some good advice, as well. I actually think that we're not that different in our attitudes, just our approaches. I also hate to lose and hate being down in any significant way, which is why I very rarely make bets that are bigger than 3u and even 3u puts me way on edge. (Really, anything more then 1.5u is considered a "big bet" to me).

It's actually my dislike of losing a lot of money that keeps me from throwing a lot of big bets on guys like you do. You say that eventually you will lose a few favorites in a row . . . you probably will, just as I will (just as I have, actually) . . . and I don't want it to be to the tune of 15 units when it happens. Hence, I spread my money around in the hopes that I will at least win SOME money, or at the very least minimize my losses.

I actually lost 8 fights in a row not too long ago. I went 0-5 at DREAM 11 and 0-3 at MFC 22. These were shady bets that I took mostly because of what I heard from others and/or half-assed research, but still, that's a hell of a lot of losing. I should've done better than that flipping a coin. So shit happens.


I saw this on MSN MOney homepage this morning... this is almost exactly what we were talking about. I thought I invented this line of thinking.

"Success at both investing and gambling, it turns out, has much to do with controlling emotions. And playing a little poker can help you recognize, and avoid, emotional traps that endanger your most important stack of chips -- your portfolio. But you need to know what to look for."

"By playing some poker, "you can find out your tendencies to make emotional mistakes, and then you can guard against them," says Frank Murtha, a behavioral-finance consultant with a doctorate in counseling psychology whose dissertation explored the effect of psychological errors in gambling."


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/learn-how-to-invest/home-dyn.aspx?cp-documentID=23248143

Coincidence? We are being watched my friend.

[SPX]

What an odd coincidence indeed!

[zY|]

What if I barely know how to play poker?

[MMA_scientist]

^^

Ipso facto, you should not invest in the market.

[zY|]

Don't bring that fancy Latin at me boy.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't even know what it means. I just like the way it sounds and think it is funny. Ipso facto, I win.

[zY|]

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipisicing elit, sed do eiusmod tempor incididunt ut labore et dolore magna aliqua. Ut enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exercitation ullamco laboris nisi ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat. Duis aute irure dolor in reprehenderit in voluptate velit esse cillum dolore eu fugiat nulla pariatur. Excepteur sint occaecat cupidatat non proident, sunt in culpa qui officia deserunt mollit anim id est laborum

See what I did there scientist?

[MMA_scientist]

Yes, you posted some jibberish in latin. Sweet.

Ipso facto > latin jibberish

[zY|]

Whatever guy, more Latin > less Latin.

Ipso facto, QED.

Script = flipped.

[MMA_scientist]

::headbanger::

I am so confused right now...

[Mr. IWS]

http://knowyourmeme.com/i/681/original/what-you-did-there-i-see-it.thumbnail.jpg