View Full Version : UFC 109 Discussion
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 02:13 PM
its not too early is it?
here is my breakdown (from my blog)... I usually come back in fill in the gaps on the other fights when it is closer to fight time:
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/226.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)
UFC 109 FIGHT CARD
Matchups:
Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman
I think Randy will win, but I give Coleman a way better chance than the line dictates. I think Randy should be like -200. They have basically the same career. Both have only lost to the best guys, and both are old men now. The big difference everyone keeps talking about is cardio. Randy will have a little standup advantage. Coleman is going to be the best wrestler Randy has faced though in his career. I do not think his clinch tactics will work well. Neither guy is getting submitted. I think Randy will wear Coleman out with the grappling and take a decision, but I think there is definate value to Coleman. No bet.
Nate Marquardt (No. 2 MW) vs. Chael Sonnen (No. 6 MW)
I already recommended Marquart and I still think he will blow through Sonnen. I just don't see how Sonnen can win. Marquart is way ahead in the striking department, and should have little fear of wading win, because Sonnen has no power. Sonnen can probably get a few takedowns, but wont be able to hold Nate down, and might get subbed. Nate has every advantage, and I think the line @ -275 is a gift.
6U on Nate @ -275
Mike Swick (No. 7 WW) vs. Paulo Thiago (No. 6 WW)
I think this is an interesting fight, style wise. I am going to wait and see the line for this, but I think Swick will win. Swick is very hard to take down, and I don't think Thiago will be able to do it. Swick for all his flaws, does have some power and speed in his hands, though it has been a while since we have seen it. I think Swick will keep him away and win the exchanges. Thiago is getting a lot of love after KOing Koscheck. He put up a good fight against Fitch too... but those guys are grapplers, who like to strike a little. Swick is striker who will grapple if he has to. No bet for now.
Demian Maia (No. 4 MW) vs. Dan Miller
I like Maia and have 5u on him @ -300. The line has moved since then though. Maia should win this fight the same way he always wins, by dragging it down and subbing him. Miller is a tough grappler in his own right, but you have to be world class to survive on the ground with Maia. I think Miller will try to keep it standing and outpoint him. But Miller does not have a lot of power, even though his boxing is ok. I think Maia will eventually drag him down to the mat, either by guard pulling like he did with Herman, or just launching Miller (Sonnen style). I think Miller is very similar to Ed Herman, in that he is a good wrestler that has converted to submission grappling... and I think it will look about the same. I know Maia has been working his striking alot, so hopefully he can survive on the feet, but doesnt think he can strike for real now... anyway, I did make this bet, but I am going to abstain on my recommendation because of my fandom. I am not sure I am objective here.
Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg
This is a tough fight to call, I think Trigg will win. Serra's power is getting a little blown out of proportion. He caught GSP at a weird angle with a forearm. He caught Hughes with a headbutt. Trigg is a MW, Serra is LW. Serra is a good defensive grappler, but hasn't really shown any real submission skills in mma. There is the threat that he could take Trigg's back and choke him out. I think it is a very close fight and could go either way, but I think Trigg will win. No bet.
Mac Danzig vs. Justin Buchholz
I like this fight a lot for Danzig. I researched this fight a ton. Buchholz' 8 wins have all come against the following records: 2-2, 2-4, 3-3, 6-10, 7-6, 2-2, 9-5, 3-2. Not exactly a murderer's row.
In his UFC fights, he was getting beaten soundly for 2 full rounds by Corey Hill, until Hill got crazy and give his back up. He was dropped 2 or 3 times by Stephens, which I cannot hold against him. His striking looks OK, but not powerful. He was a HS wrestler (that's right high school) and lists his strength as wrestling. He was taken down easily in several fights I watched. His ground skills look rudimentary to me. He got his guard passed by Hill a couple of times, and he leaves his limbs out out top.
Danzig has not exactly set the world on fire in the UFC either, on a 0-3 skid. But still, those losses have come to tough tough guys (Guida, Neer, and Miller). He had Miller in trouble a couple of times, and Neer got saved by the bell at the end of the 2nd. His boxing looks good. He stays in the pocket and lands. He also takes some shots. Danzig's best asset is his well rounded ground game. He should sub Buchholz from his back or murder him from top.
Finally, Danzig has fought the best in the world for years now. This fight should be a breather for him. Buchholz is taking a HUGE step up in competition.
5U on Danzig @ up to -300
Ronnys Torres vs. Melvin Guillard
I think Torres will win, by taking him down and subbing him. But Torres has never fought in the US, and I question his comp. Though usually the guys coming up from Brazil are tough, the MMA scene in Brazil is legitimate. No bet.
Phillipe Nover vs. Robert Emerson
I think Emerson will win. Emerson is pretty underrated as a striker, and at least defensively on the ground. Nover's ability lives mainly in Dana White's imagination. So far, I have not seen anything from Nover that would lead me to believe he will win this... but there is not a lot of footage out there either, so who knows. Not enough info on Nover to bet.
Phil Davis vs. Brian Stann
Phil Davis is the next big thing. Mark my words, this guy will make some noise in the UFC. He was an NCAA champ @ Penn State. BUt aside from that, he is super athletic, and big and lanky. He should bury Stann. I say that all the time about Stann, and he keeps surprising me. But Davis was built for MMA. He has big long arms, that can reach your head from inside the guard. He is fast and strong and a great wrestler. All that said, I need to see him fight someone decent, and Stann is a perfect test. I might toss down 1 or 2 units when I see the line. I think it will be close to even, or maybe Davis as a slight favorite... I am hoping no one knows about Davis and he opens as a dog (but it probably won't happen).
Tim Hague vs. Chris Tuchscherer
Tucherer should win, but no bet for me.
Rolles Gracie vs. Mostapha Al-Turk
I might make a bet on Gracie. I need to see some footage which I have not had a chance to do. The hype for him, might skew the line too much. I expect him to open as the favorite, based on 3 wins against cans. So I don't know... maybe a couple units here.
RECAP:
6U on Marquart @ -275
5U on Danzig @ up to -300
Disclosure: I have 5U on Maia @ -300
Line dependant:
Swick (he would have to be a pretty big dog, which won't happen. He would have to clsoe to +200)
Phil Davis (I will put down 1U if he is + anything)
Mr. IWS
01-12-2010, 02:34 PM
Never too early my man.
Solid analysis.
I would have been on Handy, had he not been so big a fav. That said, I may get on Nate too.
I'm going to be on Coleman at +325 or higher.
I'll have a write up on the fight sooner or later
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 03:47 PM
Yeah I think Coleman has done everything Randy has done... and could easily win a decision. I have no idea why Randy is getting so much love.
Fact: Randy is 3-3 in the last 3 years... but really he is 2-4 because Vera beat him. Coleman is no better, but no worse either.
I think Randy should be like -175 or -200 at the most. I am going to be on Coleman to start my underdog project (though it is hard for me because I do think Randy will win).
Yeah I think Coleman has done everything Randy has done... and could easily win a decision. I have no idea why Randy is getting so much love.
Fact: Randy is 3-3 in the last 3 years... but really he is 2-4 because Vera beat him. Coleman is no better, but no worse either.
I think Randy should be like -175 or -200 at the most. I am going to be on Coleman to start my underdog project (though it is hard for me because I do think Randy will win).
I had Randy capped at -200 before the odds came out too.While I think Randy win will I dont think he wins this fight more than 60% of the time .Coleman is one of the fighters who I have watched almost all his fights and Randy is a great match up for him
Good analysis. Thanks for the heads up on Danzig/Buchholz. I will focus some research in that direction. My guess is that they're trying to get Danzig a win. They obviously don't want to let him go or else they would have already, but they know they'll have a hard time justifying keeping him around after going 0-4, TUF champ or not. I also think you may be on target about Emerson/Nover. Like you say, there's not a lot of data to go on with Nover, but Emerson has good stand up and very solid takedown defense.
I do have to take some issues with your Trigg/Serra analysis, though. A few points:
1. You say, "Trigg's a middleweight, Serra's a lightweight." Serra has already said that the cut to LW is too vicious for him and he can't do it anymore. Serra USED to be a lightweight . . . now he's a welterweight. Just like Diego Sanchez USED to be a welterweight . . . now he's a lightweight. So I never get this line of reasoning when people bring it up. People can gain muscle and get bigger, or lose it and get smaller. You are the weight that you are.
2. On paper, Trigg has good wrestling credentials, but I watched several of his most recent fights when I was doing research on his fight against Koscheck, and despite supposedly being a great wrestler, he hasn't been employing these skills much as of late. I've heard some people say they expect Trigg to do to Serra what Hughes did, and I'm not sure that that will be the case at all.
3. Matt Serra beat GSP fair and square, regardless of "odd angles" etc. He beat his ass so bad that GSP TAPPED. Serra also took Hughes down in their fight, something that very few fighters have been able to do, and he gave BJ a damn good run for his money. What has Trigg done in even the remotely recent past that compares?
I've heard some people say they expect Trigg to do to Serra what Hughes did
What lose the fight and be gifted a decision?
What lose the fight and be gifted a decision?
Ha ha.
Well . . . I was more referring to LnP him to death.
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 09:36 PM
What lose the fight and be gifted a decision?
Ha ha.
Well . . . I was more referring to LnP him to death.
You guys are letting your Hughes hate rule you. Hughes beat Serra soundly. Absent the headbutt (which doesnt score) Hughes totally dominated the fight, except the last 40 seconds.
As for Trigg, I am not betting it... which means I have no confidence in it, my breakdown is more of a "gun to head" pick. Still, it is not based so much on Trigg being good as Serra being worse. I think they both stink, but I think the matchup favors Trigg. I think a better question is what has Serra done outside of the GSP win? Trigg has at least won SOME fights in the last few years. Serra lost to CHRIS LYTLE (IMO) on the TUF finale. Then the GSP fight. Then the GSP beating. Then Hughes beat him up. That's it. He has lost every major fight, ever (save the GSP1 fight). He might put up a hell of a fight, but his style doesnt lend itself to actually winning. A lot of guys look game and get beat alot. So he is game, so what. He allegedly has a big punch, which we have seen finish a fight once.
And I know his win against GSP is "legit" in that it actually happened. But I think it happens maybe once in 20 fights, which qualifies it as a flukey win. He couldnt land that shot again if GSP stood still. In that same sense, Shonie Carter beat Serra. Shonie Carter.
Trigg also loses every major fight. Also lost to Hughes (lets be fair though Hughes 2006 would have murdered and raped Serra). Also lost to GSP.
"You are the weight that you are." I agree. Serra walks around at 170 though. Trigg is like 190-200. Anthony Johnson cuts from 220. Do you honestly think he is the same size as Serra, who cuts no weight at all?
Rant aside, I think it is about even, but I think Trigg will win. I just think Serra's skills are over stated.
http://chicagosmma.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/matt_serra.jpg
What you got to say now, brah?
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 10:26 PM
Um, he sexy?
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 10:27 PM
I was going to say he is 4'9"... but I went with sexy.
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 10:27 PM
FINE. I admit it. I hate his face a lot.
^^^^ Dude, and what were you just saying about Hughes hate?
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 10:36 PM
That's why it is an admission.
That said, he is 1-4 since 2005, IMO. His only win was a fluke.
hate his face.
1-4? Just because YOU think he lost the Lytle fight doesn't make it so.
As for the REAL losses, who are they to? Parisyan, GSP, and Hughes. You really going to hold that against him?
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 10:50 PM
I was kidding.
Still, he hasnt done a thing in his whole career outside of fluking out a win over GSP. Not a thing.
I was kidding.
Still, he hasnt done a thing in his whole career outside of fluking out a win over GSP. Not a thing.
True. He "lost" to Lytle just like he arguably won against Penn and Hughes.
True. He "lost" to Lytle just like he arguably won against Penn and Hughes.
That's actually Serra's biggest problem. He leaves his fights too close. Barring the second GSP fight, he's never really been dominated, but then against he's never that dominant himself.
MMA_scientist
01-12-2010, 11:19 PM
Yeah, he definatly does fight to the level of his competition. Shonie Carter gave him a close fight on TUF.
All Serra hate aside, I think this is close to a coin toss. I would not be surprised in the least if Serra flattened him in 20 seconds. Or took his back and choked him out.
Trigg will probably RNC himself on the way to the cage removing his shirt.
BTW SPX
"Your mom's kind of fat.
Get the fuck out of my thread."
Is the single greatest response in history. I cried when I read that.
BTW SPX
"Your mom's kind of fat.
Get the fuck out of my thread."
Is the single greatest response in history. I cried when I read that.
Ha ha ha!
I am so glad I could amuse you, sir. Hell, I even made myself chuckle a little bit.
After looking over the fight card again. . .
Confirmed Bets
Marquardt - 4u @ -275
Maia - 3u @ -250
Serra - 1.75u @ -165 (nervous about this one, admittedly)
Possible Bets
Danzig
Emerson
Tuchscherer
MMA_scientist
01-13-2010, 01:32 PM
I like those bets... Even Serra is not a BAD bet, I just don't know how that fight is going to go down at all.
There is not enough info on Nover for me... but I suspect emerson is gonna KO him. I am interested in the line there, if Emeerson is a dog, I will toss a unit down as part of my underdog project.
Tucherer is teh fight I know the least about on that card... I have seen him fight once, and have seen the other guy once... I havent looked at it at all though.
Yeah, I'm going to have to do some more research on Tuch. It will also be dependent on if he's the dog and how big. I do know that he trains with Brock, or at least trained with Brock when Brock wasn't on his deathbed or whatever the fuck is going on with him, so I think he may know something about using his size to win.
At dog odds, I'll probably drop .25u on him, but I need to watch some Hague fights first.
MMA_scientist
01-13-2010, 01:58 PM
I only recall Hague getting KTFO by Duffee in like 3 seconds. I think Hague will open as the dog.
Mr. IWS
01-13-2010, 02:07 PM
Wasnt Tush the guy who got kicked in the nuts by Gonzaga last time out?
Wasnt Tush the guy who got kicked in the nuts by Gonzaga last time out?
One and the same.
Mr. IWS
01-13-2010, 02:32 PM
still hurts me when I think about it.
I only recall Hague getting KTFO by Duffee in like 3 seconds. I think Hague will open as the dog.
He also submitted Pat Barry in his first UFC fight.
I do expect him to be the dog though.
milfhunter
01-19-2010, 07:56 PM
Hey guys new to the board and i thought i would give me opinion..
I love Nate Marquart here in this spot. Hes a huge mw with a ton of power and skill. Im not worried about chael sonnen putting him on his back. I think he overwhlems and wears down sonnen. my favorite play on this card.. lets hope it hits
nate marquart risking 600 to win 200
Hey guys new to the board and i thought i would give me opinion..
I love Nate Marquart here in this spot. Hes a huge mw with a ton of power and skill. Im not worried about chael sonnen putting him on his back. I think he overwhlems and wears down sonnen. my favorite play on this card.. lets hope it hits
nate marquart risking 600 to win 200
GL man .I think alot of us will be on Nate also.
Welcome and thanks for stopping over ::handshake::
MMA_scientist
01-20-2010, 09:59 AM
Hey guys new to the board and i thought i would give me opinion..
I love Nate Marquart here in this spot. Hes a huge mw with a ton of power and skill. Im not worried about chael sonnen putting him on his back. I think he overwhlems and wears down sonnen. my favorite play on this card.. lets hope it hits
nate marquart risking 600 to win 200
I am on Nate as well, but I got him @ -275 when he opened. At -360 (where is now on Bookmaker) I would not make the bet.
I could arb Sonnen out, but I won't because Nate is going to win.
Hey guys new to the board and i thought i would give me opinion..
I love Nate Marquart here in this spot. Hes a huge mw with a ton of power and skill. Im not worried about chael sonnen putting him on his back. I think he overwhlems and wears down sonnen. my favorite play on this card.. lets hope it hits
nate marquart risking 600 to win 200
I am on Nate as well, but I got him @ -275 when he opened. At -360 (where is now on Bookmaker) I would not make the bet.
I could arb Sonnen out, but I won't because Nate is going to win.
I can still get -300 on Nate
Mr. IWS
01-20-2010, 02:07 PM
I can still get -300 on Nate
Ill lay that, if I can get it. but it looks like this is starting to get priced out of my range.
MMA_scientist
01-20-2010, 02:38 PM
I would take him to -300... but that's it. But I do not see where he available for -300 on BFO (he is actually -500 on Sportsbook).
I snapped that up as soon as I saw it though, for 6U @ -275
I would take him to -300... but that's it. But I do not see where he available for -300 on BFO (he is actually -500 on Sportsbook).
I snapped that up as soon as I saw it though, for 6U @ -275
Matchbook has -300.Its a betting exchange .Instead on 100 cent lines like most most books matchbook has 1 cent lines.
For example if Nate is -350 and Sonnen is +250 at a book the matchbook the line will be -300/+299 .
The line bounces around a lot on matchbook but you dont have to jump on a good line the second it comes out like at bookmaker or other books.At bookmaker it might open at -275 and be -375 in an hour .I will still be able to get a good line the day of the fight at matchbook and thats why I usually dont bet until the day of the fight because there is no hurry
Holy crap Matt Serra down -120 !!!
Didnt this open at like -175???
It opened at -165, which I jumped on. Obviously wish I had waited now.
It opened at -165, which I jumped on. Obviously wish I had waited now.
I just looked at it and was surprised its dropped so much
poopoo333
01-28-2010, 07:36 PM
My picks: 3 units on Marquardt.. I am waiting on undercard lines where I might throw some down on Davis, Danzig, and Torres. I might take Coleman for a 1/2 unit, I feel he has value.
Mr. IWS
02-01-2010, 12:42 PM
Post your wagers in here:
Discussion thread for the event is here:
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=7188 (http://www.investwithsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=7188)
::handshake::
Mr. IWS
02-01-2010, 12:43 PM
If I can get Nate around that -350 range, Im probably gonna be on him.
That line is all over the place though.
MMA_scientist
02-01-2010, 01:18 PM
6u on Marquart @ -275
5u on Maia @ -300
When undercard comes out, I will add:
5u on Danzig @ up to -300
.5U on Davis @ even or underdog
MMA_scientist
02-01-2010, 01:20 PM
If I can get Nate around that -350 range, Im probably gonna be on him.
That line is all over the place though.
I got him @ -275, I thought about arbing it out... but Nate is gonna win, so I am just going tot keep all the money.
I can also arm out Maia, which is more tempting.
thatchillguy
02-01-2010, 04:10 PM
I agree with really liking nate against chael. Chael is 6'1 & one of the bigger middleweights that uses his wrestling to bully people around. I cant see him doing that to nate as he is 6'1 & big himself. 6 outta 10 of his losses are by submission & nate has 15 of 29 win by submission. I feel confident he will eventually sub him if he try's to lay-n-pray on him for 3 rounds. I give nate the stand-up advantage everywhere in technique, power & speed so I am very confident if it stays standing.
I am staying away from coleman/couture fight with lines soo high, I have a bad feeling about this one. If coleman can get off to a good start in the 1st round with taking couture down & do a little gnp to win the round, than do the same for 3 mins of the 2nd round before he gases, it could be enough to win him the decision. I feel the longer the fight goes the better it gets for couture. If it does goes 3 rounds, 1/2 thru the fight I see things swinging in favor of couture & def see couture winning the 3rd round with having a pretty big edge in cardio. But could coleman have done enuff in rounds 1 & 2 to get the decesion? I feel like nobody besides forest griffion wins a decesion over couture (both them are prolly the judges #1 favorite fighters). If coleman cant manage to mount an offense in the 1st round than I can just see couture beating & wearing him down for 3 rounds until he cant even breathe anymore. Either way my gut says to just watch the fight & enjoy it, too risky.
Would anyone take Couture at -365?
How low would he have to be for him to be a bet for you guys?
Would anyone take Couture at -365?
How low would he have to be for him to be a bet for you guys?
Probably -300 for me.
Would anyone take Couture at -365?
How low would he have to be for him to be a bet for you guys?
Probably -300 for me.
I just keep watching the line go lower and lower and was wondering
Mr. IWS
02-02-2010, 09:04 AM
Im with SPX, I would probably lay -300.
Thewiseman
02-02-2010, 11:32 AM
I took Couture at -370. It may be a close first round but then it will be all Couture. I think it will be a very one sided fight, with Couture finishing a gassed Coleman late in the fight.
poopoo333
02-02-2010, 11:55 AM
3 units on Marquardt
still waiting on undercard lines.
I wouldn't bet on him at all. I expect Coleman to win this fight. Randy has never done well against a larger man who can take him down and beat on him. Randy's conditioning is the X factor, but don't be surprised when Mark Coleman wins 29-28.
I wouldn't bet on him at all. I expect Coleman to win this fight. Randy has never done well against a larger man who can take him down and beat on him. Randy's conditioning is the X factor, but don't be surprised when Mark Coleman wins 29-28.
I've said all along I was betting Coleman or nothing I was just wondering what everyoen else was thinking about the line dropping .Theres a zero chance I'm betting Couture
MMA_scientist
02-02-2010, 02:56 PM
Had my line set @ -200 before the line opened. So I would take Randy @ -200...
Thewiseman
02-02-2010, 03:31 PM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
Thewiseman
02-02-2010, 03:38 PM
Coleman is not really bigger than Randy. Coleman has slowed down considerably, watch the Bonnar fight. Coleman is SLOW. Im sure he will take Couture down some of the time, but he wont keep him down(see the Lesnar fight) and Couture has a big advantage standing. Then Coleman will get tired. He maintained top position against Bonnar, and was pretty tired in that fight, Couture can wrestle with him and push the pace. Coleman will gas. And Couture is good defensively off his back, what is Coleman gonna do off his back?(trust me, he will be there) I am highly confident randy takes this. laid down 22.3u to win 5.8u
poopoo333
02-02-2010, 04:16 PM
3 units on Marquardt
still waiting on undercard lines.
Add 1 unit on Coleman.
Coleman is not really bigger than Randy. Coleman has slowed down considerably, watch the Bonnar fight. Coleman is SLOW. Im sure he will take Couture down some of the time, but he wont keep him down(see the Lesnar fight) and Couture has a big advantage standing. Then Coleman will get tired. He maintained top position against Bonnar, and was pretty tired in that fight, Couture can wrestle with him and push the pace. Coleman will gas. And Couture is good defensively off his back, what is Coleman gonna do off his back?(trust me, he will be there) I am highly confident randy takes this. laid down 22.3u to win 5.8u
Colemans not bigger than Randy?? You're kidding right? Coleman will outweigh Randy by probably 20 pounds when they walk into the ring not to mention strength.
Coleman on his back? Yeah sure
Couture couldnt even get Vera down hows he going to take down Coleman? If Couture wins it will be a stand up fight that Randy uses his speed to out box Coleman
MMA_scientist
02-02-2010, 05:15 PM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
How many units is your bankroll?
Mr. IWS
02-02-2010, 05:59 PM
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Is that a typo? 22.3?
Full odds now up. I was hoping for something better for Danzig. It will be interesting to see how the Nover/Emerson line moves. Did someone not get the memo about Nover being the next Anderson Silva?
Mr. IWS
02-03-2010, 03:34 PM
Phil Davis looks pretty enticing.
MMA_scientist
02-03-2010, 03:40 PM
I thought Davis might be close to even. I do not like him @ -200
Emerson is looking really enticing. I thought he would be a bigger fave than that. Can Nover beat him, I doubt it.
I put 5u on Mac @ -280
Who is Beltran? Can he beat Rolles?
I thought Davis might be close to even. I do not like him @ -200
-200? I'm seeing him at -120.
MMA_scientist
02-03-2010, 04:00 PM
It was a misprint on BFO, he came in at -205
MMA_scientist
02-03-2010, 04:05 PM
Your boy Tuch is only -160 though... that could be something.
Your boy Tuch is only -160 though... that could be something.
Nah, I don't know nearly enough about either guy to really make a decision. Except that Tuch is tough. After taking that ball shot and coming back to fight I knew he was tough as nails.
MMA_scientist
02-03-2010, 04:40 PM
I have my bets made... but there seems to be some money to be made on a few of these fights. I am tempted to just bet every fight on the card. But I won't. I need to just walk away. I have 16 units out, that should be enough.
The HOFF
02-03-2010, 05:31 PM
Marquardt -275 / Maia -325 PARLAY (10u to win 7.83u)
Chris Tuchscherer -160 (4u to win 2.5u)
Ronys Torres +125 (2u to win 2.5u)
Marquardt -275 / Maia -325 PARLAY (10u to win 7.83u)
Chris Tuchscherer -160 (4u to win 2.5u)
Ronys Torres +125 (2u to win 2.5u)
Why Tuch and why so much?
MMA_scientist
02-03-2010, 05:58 PM
tell me something about Torres.. i am considering it as well
Thewiseman
02-03-2010, 06:53 PM
Coleman is not really bigger than Randy. Coleman has slowed down considerably, watch the Bonnar fight. Coleman is SLOW. Im sure he will take Couture down some of the time, but he wont keep him down(see the Lesnar fight) and Couture has a big advantage standing. Then Coleman will get tired. He maintained top position against Bonnar, and was pretty tired in that fight, Couture can wrestle with him and push the pace. Coleman will gas. And Couture is good defensively off his back, what is Coleman gonna do off his back?(trust me, he will be there) I am highly confident randy takes this. laid down 22.3u to win 5.8u
Colemans not bigger than Randy?? You're kidding right? Coleman will outweigh Randy by probably 20 pounds when they walk into the ring not to mention strength.
Coleman on his back? Yeah sure
Couture couldnt even get Vera down hows he going to take down Coleman? If Couture wins it will be a stand up fight that Randy uses his speed to out box Coleman
Vera is a very good greco roman wrestler also, who is in great shape who wasnt gassed like Coleman will be.
Thewiseman
02-03-2010, 06:55 PM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
How many units is your bankroll?
About 100u in my bankroll.
About 100u in my bankroll.
I'm sure most gamblers would agree that it's never adviseable to wager 22% of your bankroll on ANY fight, much less Couture VS Coleman.
MMA_scientist
02-03-2010, 07:11 PM
About 100u in my bankroll.
I'm sure most gamblers would agree that it's never adviseable to wager 22% of your bankroll on ANY fight, much less Couture VS Coleman.
agreed. By all means, do what you want... but just know that you would have to be pretty lucky to sustain long term growth risking that much of your bankroll... the risk of ruin is too high.
The Coleman -Couture fight will go much like the Coleman-Rua II fight went imo
Thewiseman
02-03-2010, 10:21 PM
The max I put on one fight is 25u. The past 2 years i am 31-5 on picks that I bet more than 10u on, so it has been working for me. I understand why not to and thanks for the input. I feel strongly that Couture wins this better than 90%, so i am comfortable with my bet.
Thewiseman
02-03-2010, 10:23 PM
The Coleman -Couture fight will go much like the Coleman-Rua II fight went imo
But Couture wont be gassed like Rua was.
8.5u to win 5.5u parlay on Marquardt and Maia at -350 each
3u to win 3.3u on Frank Trigg at +110
1u to win 3u on Mark Coleman at +300
and when a line comes out on Rolles Gracie I'll probably toss a unit on him as well provided his line is under -200
poopoo333
02-03-2010, 10:31 PM
and when a line comes out on Rolles Gracie I'll probably toss a unit on him as well provided his line is under -200
Try -550 on bodog.
Christ... I would have hoped he wasn't THAT much of a favorite. I know it's Mustapha Al Turk but shit. Scratch that, I won't be putting anything on Gracie then unless I can get better odds somewhere, I'll have to look around.
MMA_scientist
02-03-2010, 10:34 PM
Christ... I would have hoped he wasn't THAT much of a favorite. I know it's Mustapha Al Turk but shit. Scratch that, I won't be putting anything on Gracie then unless I can get better odds somewhere, I'll have to look around.
Rolles is actually fighting Joey Beltran now.
Damn it all. Might as well stick him in there with big Cabbage(yes I know Cabbage is long gone from the UFC but you get My point)
Thewiseman
02-04-2010, 10:25 AM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u
MMA_scientist
02-04-2010, 10:49 AM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u
You are wild man.
As to 31-5, @-400 on average you would only be up 2.5 times your bet after risking 25% of your bankroll 36 times.
There is a better way.
Just out of curiosity, why Sonnen?
If any of you can use Pinnacle, check out Davis/Stann. HUGE arb available. Of course, it could be a mistake, but just FYI.
http://www.bestfightodds.com/
Thewiseman
02-04-2010, 03:03 PM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u
You are wild man.
As to 31-5, @-400 on average you would only be up 2.5 times your bet after risking 25% of your bankroll 36 times.
There is a better way.Yeah, that is true but most of those bets are far less than -400. To give you a couple examples of big wins last year
Sanchez over Stevenson, Maia over Sonnen, Marquardt over Wilson G, Silva over Leites, Machida over Evans, Fitch over Paulo Thiago, Hendo over Bisping, Penn over Florian, Silva over Forrest, Stevenson over Fisher, Mir over Kongo. Just a few off the top of my head, Big losses were Liddell vs Rua, Cantwell vs Stann and Jon Jones vs Hamil
If any of you can use Pinnacle, check out Davis/Stann. HUGE arb available. Of course, it could be a mistake, but just FYI.
http://www.bestfightodds.com/
must have been an error because I dont see anything.What were the lines?
The HOFF
02-04-2010, 05:21 PM
Why Tuch and why so much?
Tuchscherer has better stand up and was doing ok against Gonzaga until the huge nut shot. Hague has one UFC win over an inexperienced ground fighter in Barry. He showed a pretty weak chin against Duffee too.
If any of you can use Pinnacle, check out Davis/Stann. HUGE arb available. Of course, it could be a mistake, but just FYI.
http://www.bestfightodds.com/
must have been an error because I dont see anything.What were the lines?
Actually the lines moved that much since I posted it. I wonder if they just changed it.
Look at the line change graph.
It opened at -230 Stann, +205 Davis
The HOFF
02-04-2010, 05:26 PM
tell me something about Torres.. i am considering it as well
Good takedowns. Should be able to get Guillard down with no problems. Half of his wins are by submissions.
Why Tuch and why so much?
Tuchscherer has better stand up and was doing ok against Gonzaga until the huge nut shot.
Haha this nearly made me fall out of my chair. Gonzaga kicked him in the nuts in the first 15 seconds and it was literally the first strike thrown by either fighter.
I'm not saying it's a bad bet, Hague is awful and doesn't belong in the UFC, but cmon. Gonzaga beat Tuscherer like he had anally raped his mother and poured sugar in his gas tank.
Dana White: UFC 109 co-headliners Marquardt and Sonnen fighting for title shot
The winner of Saturday's UFC 109 co-main-event fight between Nate Marquardt (29-8-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) and Chael Sonnen (24-10-1 MMA, 3-3 UFC) will earn a middleweight title shot.
At today's UFC 109 pre-event press conference, UFC president Dana White confirmed the recent speculation and guaranteed the winner a shot at the belt.
White, who emceed today's presser at Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino's Mizuya Lounge in Las Vegas, said he always considered the co-headlining fight a No. 1 contender's bout.
"We always had it in mind," White said. "These are two of the top five [middleweights] in the world depending on what you look at."
::handshake::
Thewiseman
02-04-2010, 11:23 PM
Just out of curiosity, why Sonnen?
Nate will probanly win, but with his wrestling Sonnen could grind out a decision.
8.5u to win 5.5u parlay on Marquardt and Maia at -350 each
3u to win 3.3u on Frank Trigg at +110
1u to win 3u on Mark Coleman at +300
and when a line comes out on Rolles Gracie I'll probably toss a unit on him as well provided his line is under -200
added a 1u parlay on Tim Hague, Rolles Gracie, Mac Danzig, and Mike Swick to win 4.5u
Just out of curiosity, why Sonnen?
Nate will probanly win, but with his wrestling Sonnen could grind out a decision.
Thats a fair point. I was just wondering because Nate's Wrestling is also very good, not to mention he's the much bigger fighter and has far and away better standup.
Didn't Dana "guarantee" title shots to Hendo that never materialized?
Everyone staying away from Swick/Thiago?
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 11:38 AM
Nate Marquardt -375 to win 100
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 11:51 AM
Zak got his ninja back!
Gotta break the Ninja out when i got a bet on a fight!
I might get on Rolles too. My guy doesnt even have him on his sheet...LOL
Waiting for his line. I would probably take him up to -400.
Everyone staying away from Swick/Thiago?
I may be on Thiago
Thewiseman
02-05-2010, 12:27 PM
Just out of curiosity, why Sonnen?
Nate will probanly win, but with his wrestling Sonnen could grind out a decision.
Thats a fair point. I was just wondering because Nate's Wrestling is also very good, not to mention he's the much bigger fighter and has far and away better standup.
Okami is also a really good wrestler. I dont think that Sonnen takes this any other way than decision, so I like the +430 or whatever it was.
The Coleman -Couture fight will go much like the Coleman-Rua II fight went imo
But Couture wont be gassed like Rua was.
Coleman may gas but its not going to be like the Rua fight that you are thinking. For that fight Coleman had to cut 30-40 pounds to get to 205 in a very short period of time. Coleman thought he was fighting HW so he was 235+ at the time he took the fight.
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 01:56 PM
IMO, that Rua/Coleman fight wouldnt have been compentitive had Rua not been coming off double knee surgery with no cardio.
Coleman wouldnt have been around long enough to gas.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 02:55 PM
Added Rolles gracie @ -475 to my bets for 5U. I really should have moved earlier on this, but I got caught offguard because I thought he was fighting Madsen and did not want to bet on that matchup.
In any event, it violates my -400 rule, but oh well- I really think the line should be like -1200. Beltran is a can.
Added Rolles gracie @ -475 to my bets for 5U. I really should have moved earlier on this, but I got caught offguard because I thought he was fighting Madsen and did not want to bet on that matchup.
In any event, it violates my -400 rule, but oh well- I really think the line should be like -1200. Beltran is a can.
He's 10-3 with a 2nd round TKO win over Houston Alexander and he's a can?
My, that term gets thrown around so loosely these days. . .
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 03:22 PM
Added Rolles gracie @ -475 to my bets for 5U. I really should have moved earlier on this, but I got caught offguard because I thought he was fighting Madsen and did not want to bet on that matchup.
In any event, it violates my -400 rule, but oh well- I really think the line should be like -1200. Beltran is a can.
He's 10-3 with a 2nd round TKO win over Houston Alexander and he's a can?
My, that term gets thrown around so loosely these days. . .
I was sort of kidding with the can remark but...
I guess you value a win over Houston Alexander more than I do. Houston is pretty horrible IMO- A 38 year old wild brawler with a glass chin. Beltran has only beaten 3 guys with winning records. Most of the guys on his record are like 0-1 or 1-2. He recently has a couple better wins, but he still looks like he just fell off the barstool and landed in the cage. 1st round submission.
I was sort of kidding with the can remark but...
I guess you value a win over Houston Alexander more than I do. Houston is pretty horrible IMO- A 38 year old wild brawler with a glass chin. Beltran has only beaten 3 guys with winning records. Most of the guys on his record are like 0-1 or 1-2. He recently has a couple better wins, but he still looks like he just fell off the barstool and landed in the cage. 1st round submission.
And Rolles has beat. . .?
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 03:36 PM
No one, but he has accomplishments outside mma in bjj and judo that give you an idea of his skill set.
Its like saying Brock Lesnar would not have been a favorite over Beltran after his 1-0 start. We know what he brings. He was a big athletic wrestler, and based on his wrestling pedigree and his 1 win, we knew that he was capabel of beating pretty much any lower tier opponent/
We also know what Rolles brings- a lifetime of "vale tudo" training and world class bjj. He is also going to be favored over all but the most competitive HWs.
Fair enough, but when you're MMA record is so sparse I think that -455 is a little ridiculous if for no other reason than a lot of competitors don't make the transition well from other combat sports to MMA.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 03:43 PM
Initially I held off, because I wanted to see him take a punch. BUt after watching Rolles and Beltran... Beltran just throws haymakers, playground style. He is fat (he looks like he could make 205, maybe even 185) and he had one week to get ready.
The I saw that Rolles is no fool. He doesn't mess around... he goes for the takedown early and often.
Of course, there is a chance he gets punched out, but I think it is like 10% max.
UFC 109 should be called "UFC 109 :retirement" instead of relentless imo
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 03:52 PM
I am looking forward to this card more than almost any other. I was pretty excited for BJ/Diego... but I am psyched for this card. I am a jiu jitsu fanboy though.
I got my team in the superbowl and my boys fighting Saturday. I might not leave the basement all weekend. I am probably going to just take cooler down and put a sign on the door for the pizza man "follow crumbs to basement."
Thewiseman
02-05-2010, 03:58 PM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u
I now have a full unit on Sonnen wining a decision. 1u to win 5u
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 04:02 PM
For the Rolles fight, Im looking more at the style of the two fighters. I watched a couple of Beltrans fights (his fight against Tracey Willis looked like a hockey fight), he looks a brawler type of guy, not real techincal. He has a tendancy to try to clinch a guy into the cage, which I think is a terrible style for a guy that has the sub game of Rolles.
I think Gracie will take him down and sub him fast.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 04:08 PM
For the Rolles fight, Im looking more at the style of the two fighters. I watched a couple of Beltrans fights (his fight against Tracey Willis looked like a hockey fight), he looks a brawler type of guy, not real techincal. He has a tendancy to try to clinch a guy into the cage, which I think is a terrible style for a guy that has the sub game of Rolles.
I think Gracie will take him down and sub him fast.
yep. That's my assessment too... he obviously has some power- but so does every HW that just chuck punches with no regard for the consequences. I think he will get clinched up, tripped and either RNC or mount gnp stoppage. Straight out of UFC 1.
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 04:15 PM
I am looking forward to this card more than almost any other. I was pretty excited for BJ/Diego... but I am psyched for this card. I am a jiu jitsu fanboy though.
I got my team in the superbowl and my boys fighting Saturday. I might not leave the basement all weekend. I am probably going to just take cooler down and put a sign on the door for the pizza man "follow crumbs to basement."
::beerchug::
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 04:32 PM
Rolles Gracie -420 to win 100
Rolles Gracie -420 to win 100
Very odd bet for you in my opinion, Zak. I've seen you pass up what I would consider much better deals in the past.
I'm thinking about taking Swick at -200.
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 04:49 PM
I also havent bet two fights on one card since Machida/Evans and Hughes/Serra.
I got a terrible cold, bordering on the flu. Maybe its all the nyquil/dayquil im taking..LOL
I think Rolles is a solid play here. As GSP says, Im not impressed with Beltrans performance. I think he will actually make it easier for Rolles, closing the distance for Rolles to get a throw/takedown and at that point, its academic.
I'm thinking about taking Swick at -200.
I actually lean Thiago
Indeed. Well good to see you betting and good luck. We're both on Marky Marquardt and I'm staying away from this Rolles/Beltran fiasco.
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 04:54 PM
Thiago is a tuff dude, I dont know. I think that fight is a pick em IMO. I could see that one going either way.
I actually lean Thiago
I think Thiago might have trouble with Swick's height/reach and on the feet he should be outclassed. On the ground he should have an advantage, at least on paper, but his wrestling is questionable while Swick--a younger, less experienced Swick mind you--held his own with Okami even though he lost.
Thiago is a tuff dude, I dont know. I think that fight is a pick em IMO. I could see that one going either way.
I was thinking Pk too ,thats why I'd lean thiago at +200.I wont be surprised no matter who wins
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 05:04 PM
I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 05:07 PM
I went bananas on this card too, I have 21% of my bankroll out.
6u on Nate @ -275
5u on Maia @ -300
5u on Danzig @ -275
5u on Rolles @ -475
I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.
That sounds like a greater than -200 amount of certainty.
I'm not so convinced Thiago won't win the standup as well. He gameplanned the shit out of Kos and you see how that turned out. Guys who use film study are tough to handicap. I really do think this fight is close to a pickem, therefore I'm going with Thiago most likely.
I'm not so convinced Thiago won't win the standup as well. He gameplanned the shit out of Kos and you see how that turned out. Guys who use film study are tough to handicap. I really do think this fight is close to a pickem, therefore I'm going with Thiago most likely.
I don't see how being a punching bag for 3:28 seconds before landing a big punch that lead to an early stoppage was "gameplanning the shit out of Kos."
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 05:28 PM
I doubt Thiago will be able to get Swick down (or if he does manage to drag him down, he won't be able to hold him). Swick has tough TD defense. I think Swick uses a ton of leg kicks and the jab and wins a UD.
That sounds like a greater than -200 amount of certainty.
I almost put a bet on Swick. I really think its a bad style matchup for Thiago. But he was able to get Volkmann down I think... so maybe I am underestimating his takedowns. I really think Swick will win.
I honestly think I can pick every fight on this card except Serra/Trigg (I am kind of torn on Couture/Coleman too).
I should parlay them all for kicks.
Couture
Marquart
Maia
Swick
*Trigg
Danzig
Torres
Gracie
Emerson
Tucherer
If I had an account at 5dimes funded, I would throw down a $5 on it because I really think they will all win... had the Maia and Marquart bets not come out early, I would probably be on Swick and Emerson too.
Throw a $5 on that for me. Take out Trigg.
I'm not so convinced Thiago won't win the standup as well. He gameplanned the shit out of Kos and you see how that turned out. Guys who use film study are tough to handicap. I really do think this fight is close to a pickem, therefore I'm going with Thiago most likely.
I don't see how being a punching bag for 3:28 seconds before landing a big punch that lead to an early stoppage was "gameplanning the shit out of Kos."
That's because you're biased and hateful.
He and his team watched tape and they found a strategy that they thought would work. Practiced it repeatedly, executed it, won the fight.
GAMEPLANNED THE SHIT OUT OF
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 05:31 PM
Agreed, I would take Kos in the rematch to win via strikes. He was landing a lot of shots... I won't call it lucky, because he trains to land a shot when a guy makes a mistake... and he did it. But I doubt he would land it again if they fought 5 times.
Not lucky, but unlikely.
Throw a $5 on that for me. Take out Trigg.
Hell, why not? I'll put $5 on it and Paypal you half if it hits.
They just seem primitive to me at AKA.
"I'm just gonna go out there and fight, bro. I don't care what he does, I'm gonna do what I'm doin, bro."
That's the vibe I get from the AKA trifecta. Guys that don't use strategy are far less successful than those who do.
That's because you're biased and hateful.
He and his team watched tape and they found a strategy that they thought would work. Practiced it repeatedly, executed it, won the fight.
GAMEPLANNED THE SHIT OUT OF
I'm the biased and hateful one when you have some critical shit to say about everything and everybody?
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 05:44 PM
Throw a $5 on that for me. Take out Trigg.
Hell, why not? I'll put $5 on it and Paypal you half if it hits.
I won't hold my breath. But if you paypal me, I will parlay it every card until you tell me to cash it out. Take out Couture too, I have a funny feeling Coleman is going to dazzle us.
That's because you're biased and hateful.
He and his team watched tape and they found a strategy that they thought would work. Practiced it repeatedly, executed it, won the fight.
GAMEPLANNED THE SHIT OUT OF
I'm the biased and hateful one when you have some critical shit to say about everything and everybody?
What's wrong with being critical? Isn't that what we're doing here?
I'm referring to how you don't even consider his win over Koscheck to be legit.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 05:50 PM
Throw a $5 on that for me. Take out Trigg.
Hell, why not? I'll put $5 on it and Paypal you half if it hits.
I'm serious. I think it can hit. I am going to send you the $5 if it doesn't.
What's wrong with being critical? Isn't that what we're doing here?
I'm referring to how you don't even consider his win over Koscheck to be legit.
I just thinking that sometimes you go overboard, like when you describe Diego's standup as "horrible" or try to discredit a fighter's win with "only scrubs get submitted with omaplatas."
As for Thiago and Kos, I think I consider it about as legitimate as Serra's win over GSP. Yes, it's a win, and it's legit, and it was fair. But is it going to happen again? Not likely and not often. In fact, I would even consider it less legit than Serra's win because he was getting beat the hell up before that shot that, yes, I consider to have been a good punch but Kos wasn't out. Serra, on the other hand, was fighting an even fight.
I'm serious. I think it can hit. I am going to send you the $5 if it doesn't.
Let's do it. You sure we shouldn't keep Couture in, though? I mean, throw out Couture but keep Torres? If we're just going to get wild with the shit then might as well go all out.
$5 is $5. It's not a big deal.
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 05:54 PM
ill paypal 5 bucks to get in too.
ill paypal 5 bucks to get in too.
Well shit, while we're at it, anyone else want to get in on this action? Maybe we should just make it a group effort, pool $5 from everyone, and then throw like $30 on a wild ass parlay with the winnings to be distributed evenly if it hits.
Hows everyone see the Nate fight playing out?
Was looking at betting Nate ITD or Nate by decision
http://www.yorkblog.com/mma/CHAEL-SONNEN_300.jpg
+
http://content.costco.com/Images/Content/Product/810225L.jpg
Seriously though, what is ITD?
Seriously though, what is ITD?
Inside the distance meaning the fight doesnt make it all 3 rounds
Inside the distance meaning the fight doesnt make it all 3 rounds
You see, now if you had just said inside the distance. . .
I think this one is hard to call. I mean, Nate. Of course. Always Nate. But I really have no feelings one way or the other about whether or not Nate will stop him or get the decision.
There is a nagging part of me that thinks Sonnen might be able to blanket Nate like he did Okami, but I doubt it.
What's wrong with being critical? Isn't that what we're doing here?
I'm referring to how you don't even consider his win over Koscheck to be legit.
I just thinking that sometimes you go overboard, like when you describe Diego's standup as "horrible" or try to discredit a fighter's win with "only scrubs get submitted with omaplatas."
As for Thiago and Kos, I think I consider it about as legitimate as Serra's win over GSP. Yes, it's a win, and it's legit, and it was fair. But is it going to happen again? Not likely and not often. In fact, I would even consider it less legit than Serra's win because he was getting beat the hell up before that shot that, yes, I consider to have been a good punch but Kos wasn't out. Serra, on the other hand, was fighting an even fight.
So it's a semantics issue. Got it. BTW that "omoplata" comment I was just hating on the power ranger to fuck with you. LOL.
Thiago and Kos, agree to disagree.
It's no different than T. Silva/Jardine. Yeah I expected Jardine to win and he should have on paper because Thiago's striking isn't that great(refraining from using words like 'horrible' and 'putrid'). But Thiago watched taped of him and realized that when Jardine drops his hands and throws those ridiculous mortal kombat uppercuts, he's wide open for a left hook. Bam, done. Game over.
ITD = inside the distance aka, a finish.
It's no different than T. Silva/Jardine. Yeah I expected Jardine to win and he should have on paper because Thiago's striking isn't that great(refraining from using words like 'horrible' and 'putrid'). But Thiago watched taped of him and realized that when Jardine drops his hands and throws those ridiculous mortal kombat uppercuts, he's wide open for a left hook. Bam, done. Game over.
Thiago's (Silva) win over Jardine was a lot more decisive than Thiago's (Paulo) win over Kos. For one, Jardine was out cold, while Kos was still actively trying to defend himself.
I'll say this: I'll give Thiago that win and call it legit if he can make a career out of shit like that. Nog can do it. Scott Smith can do it. But Paulo Thiago, for lack of a better word, got "lucky," not only in that he landed the shot but also in that it was amateur hour as far as the refereeing went that night.
It's no different than T. Silva/Jardine. Yeah I expected Jardine to win and he should have on paper because Thiago's striking isn't that great(refraining from using words like 'horrible' and 'putrid'). But Thiago watched taped of him and realized that when Jardine drops his hands and throws those ridiculous mortal kombat uppercuts, he's wide open for a left hook. Bam, done. Game over.
Thiago's (Silva) win over Jardine was a lot more decisive than Thiago's (Paulo) win over Kos. For one, Jardine was out cold, while Kos was still actively trying to defend himself.
I'll say this: I'll give Thiago that win and call it legit if he can make a career out of shit like that. Nog can do it. Scott Smith can do it. But Paulo Thiago, for lack of a better word, got "lucky," not only in that he landed the shot but also in that it was amateur hour as far as the refereeing went that night.
I don't really think the legitimacy of the stoppage is the relevant point.
Nog and Scott Smith, I don't see the correlation. Nog is great at pulling a submission out after being beat up because he's very resilient and will never quit, but to be honest he's only really done it 3 times. Most of his fights he's putting on a clinic.
I won't even try to analyze Scott Smith. The man defies logic.
It's no different than T. Silva/Jardine. Yeah I expected Jardine to win and he should have on paper because Thiago's striking isn't that great(refraining from using words like 'horrible' and 'putrid'). But Thiago watched taped of him and realized that when Jardine drops his hands and throws those ridiculous mortal kombat uppercuts, he's wide open for a left hook. Bam, done. Game over.
Thiago's (Silva) win over Jardine was a lot more decisive than Thiago's (Paulo) win over Kos. For one, Jardine was out cold, while Kos was still actively trying to defend himself.
I'll say this: I'll give Thiago that win and call it legit if he can make a career out of shit like that. Nog can do it. Scott Smith can do it. But Paulo Thiago, for lack of a better word, got "lucky," not only in that he landed the shot but also in that it was amateur hour as far as the refereeing went that night.
LOL here we go again with the early stoppage stuff. KOS got KTFO . ::lmao::
I still wish Paulo would have rushed on KOS and bashed his skull 3 or 4 more times ala Henderon so people wouldnt think this was a bad stoppage .
Amazing Paulo is a good guy a doesnt try to hurt a defenseless KOS and no one gives him any credit for the win
LOL here we go again with the early stoppage stuff. KOS got KTFO . ::lmao::
Define KTFO. Sounds like to you it means "knockdown."
Sounds like zY's definition of "terrible."
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 07:01 PM
If I were betting, i think Nate takes a UD.
Kos/Thiago = Flash Knock down IMO.
LOL here we go again with the early stoppage stuff. KOS got KTFO . ::lmao::
Define KTFO. Sounds like to you it means "knockdown."
Sounds like zY's definition of "terrible."
this is KOS "defending" himself
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/KOSFuckedup.jpg
The fight was stopped exactly one second after this picture was taken.KOS has zero idea where he was,didnt have his hands up and his eyes were in the back of his head .Like I said this picture was taken from 1 second before fight was stopped what was the ref suppose to think ???
I'll put it this way, plenty of fighters have recovered from the EXACT same situation and gone on to win fights. Why didn't Kos get his chance? Did Kos agree with the stoppage? No he did not.
If Thiago had gone after him then who knows what would've happened, but it's clear that Kos was not out. I've watched it plenty of times. I think Kos should've had his chance to tie Paulo up and recover, which I would've given him a 50% chance to do.
If I were betting, i think Nate takes a UD.
Kos/Thiago = Flash Knock down IMO.
its a pk to bet inside the distance or by decision.I dont like laying big juice so was looking at other options
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 07:11 PM
KTFO to me is when Kos fought Okami.
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 07:13 PM
fyi weigh in is on at ufc.com
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 07:14 PM
Serra looks pretty dam good. (no homo)
I'll put it this way, plenty of fighters have recovered from the EXACT same situation and gone on to win fights. Why didn't Kos get his chance? Did Kos agree with the stoppage? No he did not.
Did you lose money on KOS in this fight?
Did KOS agree with the stoppage?No but i've seen fighters than cant even stand on their own two feet argue stoppages also
I have zero bias in the fight and I think it was a good stoppage but thats just my opinion ::handshake::
fyi weigh in is on at ufc.com
cant find it got a link?
KTFO to me is when Kos fought Okami.
Ok maybe not KTFO but I personally think it was a good stoppage .
Mr. IWS
02-05-2010, 07:18 PM
Swick looks like he stepped right out of a concentration camp, and on to the scales.
weighin
http://www.ufc.com/live/
Did you lose money on KOS in this fight?
Ha ha, no. I wasn't even betting on MMA at that point. As a matter of fact, I was just about to "congratulate" you on winning your Thiago bet, LOL.
The fan side of me just doesn't like stoppages like that. For the record, I also thought Maia/Marquardt was stopped early.
Serra looks pretty dam good. (no homo)
Kick his ass, Matt!
Did you lose money on KOS in this fight?
Ha ha, no. I wasn't even betting on MMA at that point. As a matter of fact, I was just about to "congratulate" you on winning your Thiago bet, LOL.
The fan side of me just doesn't like stoppages like that. For the record, I also thought Maia/Marquardt was stopped early.
LOL I didnt bet Thiago ,at the point I didnt even know who he was
why the fuck is this shit in Spanish????
Did you lose money on KOS in this fight?
Ha ha, no. I wasn't even betting on MMA at that point. As a matter of fact, I was just about to "congratulate" you on winning your Thiago bet, LOL.
The fan side of me just doesn't like stoppages like that. For the record, I also thought Maia/Marquardt was stopped early.
I understand the fan side of it not wanting to get stopped early but I have seen a lot of boxing matches where fights should have been stopped and they were let go and it lead to death or brain damage to the fighter. So I would rather see the fight get stopped if its in question than someone get hurt ::handshake::
I love early stoppages if they're in favor of a fighter I have money on. They're the best.
LOL!
The stoppage is irrelevant! All I was arguing was the technique that put him down in the first place is the same (film study).
Performify posted up.
http://mmajunkie.com/news/17842/perform ... fc-109.mma (http://mmajunkie.com/news/17842/performifys-picks-for-ufc-109.mma)
Performify's Picks for UFC 109
Mike Swick (-200) : 1 unit to win .5 units
Frank Trigg (+125) : .4 units to win .5 units
Ronys Torres (-113) : 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Rolles Gracie (-475) : 4.75 units to win 1 unit
I hate all his plays except Torres.
You're not on the Rolles bandwagon that everyone else seems to be riding?
I just rewatched the Kos/Thiago fight because I'm bored and not doing shit tonight.
I think you should perhaps rewatch it SPX. Koscheck lands maybe 2 right hands. I say maybe because I'm not even sure one of them landed. Besides that it was a very even fight with jabs, left kicks, and blocked or missed strikes. Of course it only took one uppercut for Thiago.
Rogan and Goldie do nothing but hype up Kos as the next Chuck Liddell the whole fight and shit on Thiago's striking, even though Kos isn't the most technically sound himself. Pretty biased.
You're not on the Rolles bandwagon that everyone else seems to be riding?
He's probably going to win because he's fighting a glorified toughman, but I sure as hell don't like him at -475. He's a Gracie, probably trains BJJ exclusively.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 10:22 PM
You're not on the Rolles bandwagon that everyone else seems to be riding?
He's probably going to win because he's fighting a glorified toughman, but I sure as hell don't like him at -475. He's a Gracie, probably trains BJJ exclusively.
yeah but bjj only > bar brawling only.
See UFC 1 - 4 for confirmation.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 10:23 PM
[quote=SPX]You're not on the Rolles bandwagon that everyone else seems to be riding?
He's probably going to win because he's fighting a glorified toughman, but I sure as hell don't like him at -475. He's a Gracie, probably trains BJJ exclusively.[/quote:4mab9yla]
yeah but bjj only > bar brawling only.
See UFC 1 - 4 for confirmation.
Also, i think performity is kind of a hack. I know that is blasphemy... I just think a lot guys are better.
[quote=SPX]You're not on the Rolles bandwagon that everyone else seems to be riding?
He's probably going to win because he's fighting a glorified toughman, but I sure as hell don't like him at -475. He's a Gracie, probably trains BJJ exclusively.
yeah but bjj only > bar brawling only.
See UFC 1 - 4 for confirmation.[/quote:36pxio65]
You like him at -475?
Also, i think performity is kind of a hack. I know that is blasphemy... I just think a lot guys are better.
I made a similar statement and was mildly assaulted for it. He seems to be good at doing research and assembling facts, but is pretty hit and miss when it comes to really using those facts to figure out who's going to win a fight.
I just rewatched the Kos/Thiago fight because I'm bored and not doing shit tonight.
I think you should perhaps rewatch it SPX. Koscheck lands maybe 2 right hands. I say maybe because I'm not even sure one of them landed. Besides that it was a very even fight with jabs, left kicks, and blocked or missed strikes. Of course it only took one uppercut for Thiago.
Rogan and Goldie do nothing but hype up Kos as the next Chuck Liddell the whole fight and shit on Thiago's striking, even though Kos isn't the most technically sound himself. Pretty biased.
I'll check it out again when I get some time. I'm open to the possibility that I may be wrong.
Also, i think performity is kind of a hack. I know that is blasphemy... I just think a lot guys are better.
I made a similar statement and was mildly assaulted for it. He seems to be good at doing research and assembling facts, but is pretty hit and miss when it comes to really using those facts to figure out who's going to win a fight.
He is a bonafide, card-carrying, BJ Penn nuthugger, that's for sure.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 11:08 PM
Also, i think performity is kind of a hack. I know that is blasphemy... I just think a lot guys are better.
I made a similar statement and was mildly assaulted for it. He seems to be good at doing research and assembling facts, but is pretty hit and miss when it comes to really using those facts to figure out who's going to win a fight.
That's pretty much my assessment. His win/loss is not that impressive. He went like 5 events without turning a profit.
MMA_scientist
02-05-2010, 11:09 PM
Did you make the super parlay? Or are you waiting for the $5
That's pretty much my assessment. His win/loss is not that impressive. He went like 5 events without turning a profit.
Someone said the other day on the Junkie boards that if you add it all up he hasn't made a profit in, like, a year.
That's pretty much my assessment. His win/loss is not that impressive. He went like 5 events without turning a profit.
Someone said the other day on the Junkie boards that if you add it all up he hasn't made a profit in, like, a year.
LOL.
Can you find it? Link?
Did you make the super parlay? Or are you waiting for the $5
SuperParlay!
I haven't done it yet. I figured I'd wait until tomorrow to see who all wants in on it. If it's just me and you, then I'd be happy to throw the $5 up. But I know Zak said something about wanting in, too. So if he's going to jump in then we might as well all throw $5 in a piece.
Can you find it? Link?
http://mmajunkie.com/news/17165/perform ... fc-107.mma (http://mmajunkie.com/news/17165/performifys-picks-for-ufc-107.mma)
Almost all the way down you'll find this:
hey everyone
i'm on penn this weekend as well as a decent play on struve
BUT i've got to say i really dislike the constant excuses -P keeps making for recent bad results. in case no one has realised -P is -3.49 units overall for the past 16 events - since UFC 91 in November 2008.
That is a pretty bad record - losing money on a consistent basis for over a YEAR!
And thats only on the junkie.com predictions. On the twitter account he also recommended plays on Houston and Hammil last week. Could those fights have been called any worse? Hammil got absolutely tooled!
Saying things like - "i was on the right side of the bet, even when losing" - although true, are pretty frustrating to read. If that is a defence to bad handicapping, then what about the losing bets, where you were also on the wrong side of the bet too? - Luiz cane at 106 or Forrest Griffin at 101 for example. You recommended a 0.5 unit play on Griffin at +300 therefore suggesting he had a better than 25% chance of winning that fight. We all saw what happened and in reality his chances of winning were probably closer to 10%. You were therefore on the wrong side of the bet even in losing.
It therefore works both ways, you cant keep saying your unlucky.
Anyway, hopefully the picks this week will start to turn things round. the 3 favourites seem good safe picks and Kongo looks like a decent shout too. Good luck
Can you find it? Link?
http://mmajunkie.com/news/17165/perform ... fc-107.mma (http://mmajunkie.com/news/17165/performifys-picks-for-ufc-107.mma)
Almost all the way down you'll find this:
hey everyone
i'm on penn this weekend as well as a decent play on struve
BUT i've got to say i really dislike the constant excuses -P keeps making for recent bad results. in case no one has realised -P is -3.49 units overall for the past 16 events - since UFC 91 in November 2008.
That is a pretty bad record - losing money on a consistent basis for over a YEAR!
And thats only on the junkie.com predictions. On the twitter account he also recommended plays on Houston and Hammil last week. Could those fights have been called any worse? Hammil got absolutely tooled!
Saying things like - "i was on the right side of the bet, even when losing" - although true, are pretty frustrating to read. If that is a defence to bad handicapping, then what about the losing bets, where you were also on the wrong side of the bet too? - Luiz cane at 106 or Forrest Griffin at 101 for example. You recommended a 0.5 unit play on Griffin at +300 therefore suggesting he had a better than 25% chance of winning that fight. We all saw what happened and in reality his chances of winning were probably closer to 10%. You were therefore on the wrong side of the bet even in losing.
It therefore works both ways, you cant keep saying your unlucky.
Anyway, hopefully the picks this week will start to turn things round. the 3 favourites seem good safe picks and Kongo looks like a decent shout too. Good luck
LOL!
Pretty funny. P has a great response to that guy, but the numbers don't lie. I didn't actually go and confirm, but the guy underneath P who tries to defend him basically does the exact opposite and confirms the number.
To be fair though, these are just his recommendations at whatever shit line is around at fight time. Still though.
Thewiseman
02-06-2010, 01:19 AM
Did you lose money on KOS in this fight?
Ha ha, no. I wasn't even betting on MMA at that point. As a matter of fact, I was just about to "congratulate" you on winning your Thiago bet, LOL.
The fan side of me just doesn't like stoppages like that. For the record, I also thought Maia/Marquardt was stopped early.
Funny you guys are talking about this fight. I closed a huge parlay with ufc 95 and needed Maia, Sanchez, Marquardt and Kos to win and I was winning $10,500. Kos Screwed me there. I was pretty bitter. I had an 8,10, and 15 team parlay and needed those fights to come through.
such a huge Parlay rarely pays off I would think. Even with all favorites...
such a huge Parlay rarely pays off I would think. Even with all favorites...
Well favs win 70% of the time so if you bet a 10 team parlay with all favorites you are bound to win 7 of the 10 just guessing.If you study hard I see no reason you couldnt hit 9 or all 10 if they are spread out over a few events
I was under the impression he was talking about taking all the favorites on a single card, even at 7 out of 10 it isn't enough to turn a profit on a single card with a regular parlay.
I was under the impression he was talking about taking all the favorites on a single card, even at 7 out of 10 it isn't enough to turn a profit on a single card with a regular parlay.
He's not taking all the favorites. He's taking all that he thinks will win.
It's still not going to work. The odds just don't favor it.
Thewiseman
02-06-2010, 08:38 AM
These were parlays that started at 93, and consisted of guys from 94 and FN, and a couple basketball games. I went all the way until Koscheck. I still do those parlays, but risk far less.
Thewiseman
02-06-2010, 09:51 AM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u
Added today just for fun:
Couture wins in rd 3: .16u to win 1.7u
Added to the whole card parlay: Spurs -3.5, Cavs -12.5, houston -5.5, and okc -5.5 .03u to win 356.5u
Then did the whole card and switched out the Couture prop with Couture to win and Sonnen with marquardt .03u to win 1.8u.
Good luck guys
I didn't actually go and confirm, but the guy underneath P who tries to defend him basically does the exact opposite and confirms the number.
Yeah, I noticed that!
To be fair though, these are just his recommendations at whatever shit line is around at fight time. Still though.
It's true. I mean, he only has two books to choose from and by the time he does his write ups a lot of the good lines have already been shot to hell. Still, on the bets he DOES make, he's only recommending plays on those he considers to be +EV at the lines at the time, so after a year he should be ahead for sure.
I'll say this, if after a year I went back and realized I hadn't made any money then I think I'd just quit.
MMA_scientist
02-06-2010, 01:38 PM
You like him at -475?
Indeed. I took him for 5u @ -475.
I should have jumped on -400 but I hadnt seen Beltran yet.
I think Beltran has about a 10% chance.
Who officially wants in on the SuperParlay? Zak?
If it's just me and Scientist then I'm just going to drop $5 out there and see what happens. If it's going to be more than the two of us, then I gotta collect money.
thatchillguy
02-06-2010, 02:34 PM
My plays for the night.
1u to win 2.6u couture/maia/gracie/danzig/tuchs
1.5u to win 1.9u gracie/danzig/tuchs
3u to win 4.1u nate/danzig/tuchs
5.5u to win 3u nate/gracie
12u to win 2.5u gracie
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 02:44 PM
gimme your paypal addy, ill send over 5 bucks.
Gracie up to -700 on bookmaker lol
SuperParlay!
2/6/10 5:08pm $10.00 $112.13 Pending 8 Team Parlay
Pending 2/6/10 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Randy Couture -360* vs Mark Coleman
Pending 2/6/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Mike Swick -210* vs Paulo Thiago
Pending 2/6/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Nate Marquardt -390* vs Chael Sonnen
Pending 2/6/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Demian Maia -345* vs Dan Miller
Pending 2/6/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Ronny Torres -120* vs Melvin Guillard
Pending 2/6/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Mac Danzig -360* vs Justin Buchholz
Pending 2/6/10 7:15pm UFC Fighting 1806 Chris Tuchscherer -200* vs Tim Hague
Pending 2/6/10 7:15pm UFC Fighting 1808 Rolles Gracie -730* vs Joey Beltran
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 06:01 PM
SPX, I sent that money bro.
thatchillguy
02-06-2010, 06:48 PM
Gracie up to -700 on bookmaker lol
Yea hes up to -750 on my local site now. Glad I put 12u on him at -450. Hope he comes through. I would of took a prop bet that gracie subs him in the 1st if I could find odds on it. Best of Luck Tonight All!!!
SPX, I sent that money bro.
I just saw that. Thanks.
Maybe it'll hold up. It doesn't look bad, though I don't know anything about Torres.
What do you guys think about this prop?
Couture Wins in Round 3 +1090
I could see him getting a TKO in the third after Coleman's gassed out. That doesn't seem like a bad deal.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:13 PM
I think if couture wins, and I think he will, I think it will be the same way your thinking. late ko.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:15 PM
Prelims starting!
Thewiseman
02-06-2010, 07:17 PM
So far I have:
Couture 22.3u to win 5.8u
Couture wins inside the distance .3u to win .8u
Serra .4u to win .3u
Serra wins inside the distance .16u to win .5u
Sonnen wins by decision .3u to win 1.5u
Dan Miller wins by decision .16u to win 1.6u
Just added my parlays:
Couture, Swick, Maia, Serra, Danzig, Davis, Tuscherer .5u to win 4.7u.
Two parlays with futures both risking .03u with the same fighters + Torres
And I always do a parlay with the whole card.
Couture wins inside the distance, Sonnen by decision, Swick, Maia, Serra, Torres, Danzig, Emerson, Davis, Tuscherer, and Gracie .03u to win 23.5u
So total parlay risk is only .59u, and for crazy parlays its .09u
Just added 5.8u to win 1.66u on Couture
triathlete
02-06-2010, 07:19 PM
Word up, everyone.
Been a way a little while. School kicked (is kicking) my butt. I only have a bet on Serra on this one... a few bucks I put down a month ago or so.
I went to college at North Dakota State.. so I'm excited to see how Tuchscherer does. Small town North Dakota boy.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:20 PM
good to see ya Tri.
GL tonight.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:20 PM
Wiseman, you got like 30 units on Handy right?
I hope that hits man. I do think its the right side.
GL
Triathlete in the house!
Glad to see you showed up.
triathlete
02-06-2010, 07:31 PM
For sure. I mean... what better way to study statistics and probability than sports betting. My fall semester has a 4 credit stats class... ugh. ::thumbdown::
The inventor of math should be prosecuted for hate crimes.
The inventor of math should be prosecuted for hate crimes.
::lmao:: I got straight A's in math from kindergarden to college ,it was the only thing I was good at.
My report cards:
Math A
Science B-
Social Studies B-
English C
Is it just me or is everyone else seeing the little "new posts" money symbol by this thread even though they've clicked on it?
MMA_scientist
02-06-2010, 07:37 PM
SuperParlay!
2/6/10 5:08pm $10.00 $112.13 Pending 8 Team Parlay
Pending 2/6/10 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Randy Couture -360* vs Mark Coleman
Pending 2/6/10 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Mike Swick -210* vs Paulo Thiago
Pending 2/6/10 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1302 Nate Marquardt -390* vs Chael Sonnen
Pending 2/6/10 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1402 Demian Maia -345* vs Dan Miller
Pending 2/6/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1601 Ronny Torres -120* vs Melvin Guillard
Pending 2/6/10 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Mac Danzig -360* vs Justin Buchholz
Pending 2/6/10 7:15pm UFC Fighting 1806 Chris Tuchscherer -200* vs Tim Hague
Pending 2/6/10 7:15pm UFC Fighting 1808 Rolles Gracie -730* vs Joey Beltran
Sweet. PM your paypal and I will kick you $5.
Torres is Nova Unaio. Those guys are BA's.
I am flying solo again tonight, so I will desecnding to my cave momentarily. I will probably around a little.
I am so alone.
Is it just me or is everyone else seeing the little "new posts" money symbol by this thread even though they've clicked on it?
me too
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:40 PM
Is it just me or is everyone else seeing the little "new posts" money symbol by this thread even though they've clicked on it?
Im not. How long has this been happening?
triathlete
02-06-2010, 07:46 PM
Damn.. how many parlays are screwed cuz of this one? Wasn't Gracie like -1000?
Joey Beltran def. Rolles Gracie by TKO (Strikes) at 1:31, R1
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:46 PM
MUTHERFUCKER.
ROLLES GRACIE
:burn: :burn: :burn: :burn: :burn:
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:47 PM
pos gassed out
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:48 PM
I just lost $420 bucks on him.
HOLY SHITTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DAMN!
We're gonna have some unhappy people on here pretty soon. Get ready.
triathlete
02-06-2010, 07:49 PM
That sucks . . :(
Sorry everyone who had money on Gracie. That sucks big time. Busts the SuperParlay, too. Damn. It didn't even get past the first fight.
Sorry again, guys.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:51 PM
Gracie mounts immediately and Beltran surrenders his back. Gracie transitions back to the full mount with 3:20 left in the round.
Exactly how I thought it would go. How does this clown not finish at that point?
Im not. How long has this been happening?
Within the last hour.
Don't know, Zak. Terrible, terrible news.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:52 PM
still happening SPX? are you using firefox or internet explorer?
still happening SPX? are you using firefox or internet explorer?
Yeah, still happening. I'm using Firefox.
MUTHERFUCKER.
ROLLES GRACIE
:burn: :burn: :burn: :burn: :burn:
LOLWUT?
Did he get KOd?
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:54 PM
Im using firefox, and its not happening to me. Let me try a couple things.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 07:55 PM
LOLWUT?
Did he get KOd?
He got Hick Holled
I just watched the weigh-ins and both Emerson and Nover look ready to take care of business.
FuckRollesGracie
02-06-2010, 08:02 PM
Hi guys, sorry I gassed out.
^^^ Not sure who did this shit, but I immediately laughed my ass off.
Hi guys, sorry I gassed out.
::lmao::
LOL WTF?
triathlete
02-06-2010, 08:06 PM
Hi guys, sorry I gassed out.
That's pretty fuckin' funny. . .
Damn this Gracie fight is going to end up being one of the biggest upsets of the year.
Sorry guys
I'm still tweaking my bets, but for the record I have .25u on Stann. That fight's next.
Mr. IWS
02-06-2010, 08:07 PM
LOL, that was me.
SPX, still having that problem?
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