1-17-10

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

ROOT Vegas Legend

Football NFL
Game Date/Time: January 17, 2010, 10:00 am(PST) Matchup: Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

Take: Minnesota Vikings

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root


3* Vikings (-2½) over Cowboys
1:00 PM -- NFC Divisional Playoffs - Hubert H. Humphrey Metro

Game is being played in a dome.


6* Chargers (-7) over Ny Jets
4:40 PM -- AFC Divisional Playoffs - Qualcomm Stadium

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang


75 DIME - NEW YORK JETS - (IF LINE IS 7 YOU BUY THE 1/2, AND GET 7 1/2. VALUE IN THE UNDERDOG) - I said it last week and I will say it this week.

You give me the # 1 defense in the NFL and the # 1 rush offense in the NFL, and I will gladly take the points anywhere on planet earth.

I know the Chargers are great, and have been great, but fact of the matter is the strength of this Jets team is their offensive line while the weakness of San Diego is their defensive line.

The Jets will attack the Chargers the same way they attacked the Bengals both offensively and defensively.

Establish the run, get Sanchez in very manageable 3rd downs and keep the chains moving.

New York faced what I felt was a better all around defense in the Bengals last week, and their offensive gameplan was brilliant and I credit offensive coordinator Schottenheimer for his play calling.

I see much of the same here.

It is very hard to blowout a team that brings the # 1 defense and # 1 run game in the NFL as long as they play error free football, and if the Jets win the turnover battle, they do have a chance to shock the world.

Now if you don't turn the ball over in 10 degree weather against the 5th best overall defense in Cincinnati, I just don't see you turning it over in 75 degree weather in sunny San Diego against the 16th ranked defense.

Do the Chargers scare me? Absolutely, but again I didn't see anything from the Jets last week against Cincy that leads me to believe Sanchez is going to play this game like a deer caught in the headlights.

In fact, he came of age last week in Cincy. He looked very comfortable, but folks any QB would feel comfortable when you have a rush attack like the Jets.

Once Rex Ryan and his staff stop asking Sanchez to win games, and started having him manage games, this team became dangerous, very dangerous.

People can say Indy rested players but it was a 15-10 game 3rd quarter when they sat their starters, and Jets ball so I don't want to hear that.

This team is playing with a lot of confidence and catching more than a TD is value I can't pass up today.

75 dime # 4 in a row - JETS.

FREE SELECTION - MINNESOTA VIKINGS

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root


3* Vikings (-2½) over Cowboys
1:00 PM -- NFC Divisional Playoffs - Hubert H. Humphrey Metro

Game is being played in a dome.


6* Chargers (-7) over Ny Jets
4:40 PM -- AFC Divisional Playoffs - Qualcomm Stadium

Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 65.



3* Vikings (-2½) over Cowboys

DALLAS COWBOYS vs. MINNESOTA VIKINGS -3

The Minnesota Vikings will host the Dallas Cowboys this Sunday at the Metrodome in possibly the most popular playoff meeting thus far in the postseason. On one side, you have the legend QB Brett Farve who signed with the Vikings while turning a rushing team into one of the most balanced offenses in the league. The Vikings at many times this season have appeared to be the most complete team in the league, but a few lackluster performances down the stretch has left some doubts on what was such a promising season. The Vikings are in search for their first NFC Championship in over 30 years, but before they have a chance at a Championship they must defend their home turf against the most hated team in America.
The Dallas Cowboys ended all the critics talk of the postseason drought last week as they beat the Eagles for the 2nd straight week in a row to score their first postseason victory since 1996. The Cowboys are suddenly playing extremely well on the defensive side of the ball and also getting help from the offense along the way. The Cowboys now seem to have momentum on their side, something that has been missing for nearly two decades. Still, the Cowboys have a lot of support considered by one of the largest fan bases in sports. For most of those fans, the Cowboys rise to glory has been long overdue. However, a loss to the Vikings this Sunday would make the wait even longer.
The Vikings offense has been a lethal threat to all defenses this season. The primary objective initially was to feed the ball to the sensational running threat of Adrian Peterson and then work the pass in as holes opened in the defense. However, Peterson has not had the incredible season that most would have expected yet has still been effective enough to rack up over 1,300 rushing yards. However as a result, Farve has thrown a lot more passes and WR Sidney Rice has emerged as a star in the passing offense. It will be interesting to see how the Vikings come out and try to establish their offense this week. The Cowboys defensive front has been very strong and just asks Donovan McNabb how well they are playing. Still, even with the Cowboys strong pass rush teams have been able to run the ball. On that note, expect Peterson to set the tone early and depending on their success running the football will decide which pace of offense the Vikings establish.
Expect the Vikings run game to not be as successful early on when emotions are up from kickoff and they will likely turn to Farve rather quickly. I’m sure the Vikings passing attack will have their ups and downs. However, it could be a lot more struggles if the Dallas pass rush continues to dominate. The way the Vikings will get the offense involved is when they go back to the running game with Peterson later. Once the Dallas defense is worn down a bit, Peterson can have a step advantage in the holes and that is where they will find the offensive sparks. It will be up to Farve and the passing game to capitalize on those sparks. One thing is for sure that neither passing team can afford to turnover the ball as this will expectedly be a close game.
The Cowboys offense will surely allow Marion Barber and Felix Jones to have plenty of carries. Both backs have the ability to cause damage, but Jones is appearing to be the star in the making. After busting out a few big plays against the Eagles in the first meeting, Jones rushed for 148 yards and a score on just 16 carries in last week’s win. QB Tony Romo completed 66% throwing for 244 yards and 2 scores. WR Miles Austin was yet again the favorite target catching 7 balls for 82 yards and a touchdown. However, keep an eye on WR Roy Williams. When Williams makes a few grabs it really opens the door for the rest of the receivers. The Cowboys numbers on offense has been pretty solid and they should be able to score some points again. The question is will the Vikings have their way on the offensive side of the ball as they have many times this season or will the Cowboys defense continue to impress?

WAR'S ANSWER IS THAT THE OFFENSIVE BALANCE THAT THE VIKINGS HAVE AND WITH FARVE'S PLAYOFF LEADERSHIP....THE VIKINGS WILL PREVAIL. THIS IS WAR'S VEGAS LEGEND TAKING MINNESOTA.




6* Chargers (-7) over Ny Jets

NEW YORK JETS vs. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -7

The New York Jets opportunity to just reach the postseason was considered a big long shot, but they closed out the year winning 5 of their last 6 games while getting help from some of the other teams around the league as well. The Jets backed up their underdog efforts last week with an impressive outing against the Cincinnati Bengals 24-14. The Jets finally are getting tremendous help from their defense and they are proving that they can play with the top teams in the league. However, the Jets will try to tackle the San Diego Chargers this weekend, who are the hottest team in the NFL in the Divisional Round of the Playoffs.
San Diego won 11 games as the hottest team in the league to close out the year earning them a first round bye last week. The well rested Chargers will now attempt to pick up where they left off. The San Diego offense has proven to be unstoppable this season with QB Phillip Rivers under center. Rivers threw for 4,254 yards with 28 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions this season. Those are very solid numbers especially if you consider the lack of run game throughout the year meaning defenses knew the pass was coming but still could not stop it.
The reason it’s hard to stop the Chargers passing attack outside of Rivers dangerous accuracy lies in the receivers. WR Vincent Jackson and tight end Antonio Gates possibly the most lethal duo combination in any passing game. The two have combined for 2,300 plus yards and 17 touchdowns. Jackson is a big wide receiver that has dominated cornerback this year and Gates provides excellent support underneath. Those combinations in the passing game have been deadly, but now they must get the momentum rolling after a week off and also against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL.
The Jets lead the NFL in pass defense holding opponents to a lucrative low 154 yards per game through the air. The entire Jets defense has been even more impressive holding teams to just less than 9 points per game during their last 7 outings. However, the secondary may not have the height advantage to take the ball away from Jackson if he gets a few throws down the field. Jackson single handedly beat the Cowboys, who also have a disadvantage in size in their secondary, late in the regular season and the Jets can not afford to yield any similar results. For the most part, their pass defense has been very solid but will likely need to force a turnover or two quickly before the Chargers will change their attack. If they can keep San Diego out of the end zone early it will be vital to their success. The offense may put more on the arm of Mark Sanchez this week. Sanchez has been used very little considering the offense has ridden running back Thomas Jones over the past few weeks.
However, points will have to be scored in this game as I do not think the Jets running game can absolutely control the game start to finish. They will have to get help from Sanchez who completed 12 of 15 for 182 yards last week against the Bengals. If Sanchez can repeat on those numbers and produce some points then they will have a shot at the upset. Thomas Jones has been the workhouse over the past few weeks and they will give him the ball often again. Jones needs a few solid runs out of the gate to set the tone for the offense so that they can try to give him the ball 20 plus times. However, as stated before Sanchez and the passing offense will have to give support at some time in this game. If the Jets can not score at least 20 points they will not win.

WAR HAS MADE THE SAN DIEGO CHARGERS HIS BILLIONAIRES PLAY

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

NY Jets (+7) 18 SAN DIEGO 21
17-Jan-10 01:40 PM Pacific Time
If Mark Sanchez continues to avoid interceptions then the Jets may end up being Super Bowl champions this season. This New York team reminds me a lot of the Ravens team that won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. All Dilfer had to do was avoid turnovers and let his rushing attack and great defense do the rest - and that's all Sanchez has to do too. Sanchez threw 20 interceptions in his first 13 games of the season, but has thrown zero picks in each of the last 3 games. Sanchez can even afford to throw an interception and still win this game given how good the Jets' defense is.

New York's defense is the best in the NFL by far, allowing just 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. However, the defense is even better than those numbers suggest, as the Jets' pass defense is the best I have ever seen in the games in which veteran cornerback Lito Sheppard was healthy and playing opposite of the NFL's best CB Darrelle Revis. Sheppard started only 3 games through week 11 (weeks 1, 2 and 6) and returned to the lineup for good in week 12. The Jets' pass defense has been incredible in those 10 games, allowing just 3.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team. Even if I take out their week 17 domination of the Bengals (0 pass yards on 22 pass plays), the Jets' pass defense is still a mind blowing 2.2 yppp better than average - the best I have ever seen in the NFL. Mediocre and bad quarterbacks had no chance to throw against the Jets, but even very good quarterbacks were held in check. Houston's very good pass attack managed just 4.1 yards per pass play in week 1 and the Jets limited Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 4.6 yppp in week 2. Only Peyton Manning's 192 pass yards on 21 pass plays in week 16 blemished the Jets' incredible record, but the Jets were still 2.1 yppp better than average against those 3 great quarterbacks (5.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.5 yppp against an average defense)

San Diego's Philip Rivers had perhaps the best season of any quarterback, averaging 8.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback, but my math model projects a modest 6.0 yppp for Rivers in this game. The Chargers' rushing attack is terrible (3.5 ypr against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and my math model predicts just 3.3 ypr for San Diego in this game, so Rivers will have to play exceptionally well to move the ball on the Jets.

With the defense playing so well, Jets' coach Rex Ryan decided to rely on that defense and a good rushing attack while asking his rookie quarterback to take less chances in the passing game. That strategy should continue to work given San Diego's sub-par run defense (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and the Chargers' pass defense is just average, so I see no reason why the Jets can't continue to control the ball with their good rushing attack and play action passes. Sanchez threw the ball only 15 times last week, but he averaged 12.1 yards per pass play and has actually been better than average throwing the ball since top receiver Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury in week 8 after missing most of 3 games. Braylon Edwards was acquired in a trade with Cleveland while Cotchery was out and Sanchez has averaged 6.5 yppp with both receivers available to throw to (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). I'm not assuming that Sanchez will continue to avoid interceptions as he's done in his last 3 games, but he should have a decent game against a mediocre Chargers' defense.

My math model projects the Jets to out-gain the Chargers 321 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 276 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with the Chargers having a projected 0.5 turnover advantage. Overall, the math picks this game even despite 4.3 points of home field advantage. San Diego does apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and that angle will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet in this game. However, the line value favoring New York is more significant than the situation favoring the Chargers and I'll consider the Jets a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I'll lean with the Under at 41 points or higher.

Dallas (+2.5) 24 MINNESOTA 25
17-Jan-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Dallas is playing the best football in the NFC since free safety Ken Hamlin returned from injury to solidify the defense in week 14. It was week 14 that the Cowboys ended a 2 game losing streak with an upset road win against the unbeaten Saints and Dallas is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS since then.

The Cowboys' pass defense was horrible without Hamlin keeping teams from going deep against them (they allowed 6.9 yards per pass play in 4 games without him), but Dallas rates at 0.9 yppp better than average with Hamlin in the lineup and their run defense is 0.2 ypr better than average. I rate Minnesota's offense at 0.6 yards per play better than average but that's only slightly better than a Dallas defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average with Hamlin in the lineup.

The Cowboys' offense has been outstanding this season, averaging 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and they have a big edge over a mediocre Vikings' defense that has surrendered 5.3 yppl to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team.

Minnesota is not as good offensively or defensively as the Cowboys are and my math model projects Dallas with a 6.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl advantage in this game even with the additional home field advantage that home teams in this round of the playoffs have (due to the bye week). Even with the extra 1.5 points of home field advantage my math still picks this game even, so the line value favors the Cowboys. I'll lean with Dallas plus the points and I'll lean over the total.

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT

Millionaire Wake Forest

[Mr. IWS]

ROOT
3* V. L.
Connecticut (-2) over Michigan
1:30 PM -- Crisler Arena






4* Mill
Wake Forest (+14) over Duke
8:00 PM -- Cameron Indoor Stadium

[Mr. IWS]

Ppp
4% Minnesota
3% N Y Jets