2-6-10 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

02-06-2010, 09:14 AM

Lang

30 DIME - DRAKE BULLDOGS

Back with Drake again tonight.

I used them as a free pick winner on Tuesday night and they cashed against Bradley, and now I raise the stakes a bit with them here.

Since switching to a 4-guard lineup after a 60-46 home loss to Indiana State, all Drake has done is go 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS.

They lost on the road at Creighton by 4 as a 12 1/2 point dog and lost by 16 at Northern Iowa as a 14 1/2 point dog.

Other than that, this team has been spot on.

They took care of Southern Illinois outright 70-65 as a 12 1/2 point dog, back to back double digit home wins over Southwest Missouri State by 11 and this Illinois State team by 10.

Don't be fooled by that 10 point final margin as Drake pounced on them leading by 20 at the half and coasting to the 10 point win.

They took care of Evansville on the road 72-65 in a pick'em, and then crushed Wichita State at home 78-64 as a 5 point home dog.

It was revenge time at home to Creighton 79-74 in a pickem, and then the loss but cover to Bradley last game out.

The bottom line here folks is with exception to the 16 point loss at Northern Iowa, Drake has covered every single conference road game and 6-2 ATS overall on the road this year.

Yes, they are off the last second loss to Bradley but with the confidence this team is playing with right now, I just don't see them letting down today.

This is a very live dog today against an Illinois State team I just don't see covering this number against a flat out cash cow in Drake.

You finally factor in Drake 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS the last 5 meetings and Illlinois State 4-12 ATS facing a team with a losing SU record and the motivation will be with Drake all day long.

30 dime winner - Drake

FREE PICK - BYU COUGARS

Mr. IWS

02-06-2010, 10:13 AM

NESS

REASON FOR PICK: At 12:00 ET my *9* Morning Eye Opener is on Virginia.

C.J. Harris scored 12 points to help Wake Forest hold off Miami 62-53 on Tuesday night. Ishmael Smith added 11 points, nine rebounds and six assists for the Demon Deacons (15-5, 5-3 Atlantic Coast Conference), who built a big first-half lead and spent the rest of the night protecting that margin. Wake Forest hardly looked sharp, shooting just 41 percent, committing too many turnovers and getting beaten on the glass to help the Hurricanes hang around in the second half. Wake Forest led by 17 points midway through the opening half before Miami (16-6, 2-6) clawed back to within three points with about 5 1/2 minutes left. But the Hurricanes came up empty on six straight possessions when the game hung in the balance, sending them to their fifth loss in six games; I expect a similar letdown on the road today (note: Wake Forest is a poor 3-5 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per game). Mike Scott scored 15 points and Virginia held North Carolina State scoreless for more than 7 minutes on the way to a 59-47 victory Wednesday night. Virginia (14-6, 5-2 Atlantic Coast Conference) regained a share of first place in the conference with No. 10 Duke, and completed a season sweep of the series with the Wolfpack. Mustapha Farrakhan added 11 points and Jerome Meyinsse 10 for Virginia, while Sylven Landesberg failed to score in double figures for the first time this season, finishing with seven. But Landesberg, who shot 2-for-10, did contribute a career-high nine assists (note: not only is Virginia 10-2 SU its last 12, its also 8-1 SU its last nine; 8-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record). Home court advantage can not be overlooked here; lay the points.

Good luck...Larry.
REASON FOR PICK: At 4:00 ET my Colonial Athletic Conference Top Play is on Drexel *10

Jihad Ali scored 22 points to lead Georgia State to a 61-57 victory over George Mason on Wednesday night, breaking the Panthers’ three-game losing streak. George Mason (15-8, 10-2) didn’t score after Mike Morrison’s layup gave the Patriots a 57-53 lead with 2:52 to play to snap a seven-game winning streak. They went 0-for-5 from the field in the final 2:08. Ryan Pearson led George Mason with 13 points and eight rebounds and Luke Hancock added 10 points (note: dating back to last year George Mason is 6-14 SU its last 20 overall on the road; just 1-3-1 ATS its last five vs. Drexel; 1-3 ATS vs. good defensive teams that allow 64 points or less per contest). Chris Fouch scored 28 points and 11 Drexel players scored in a 97-55 victory over Towson on Tuesday night. Fouch, a freshman, was 6-for-7 from beyond the arc as the Dragons went 12-for-24. The Dragons (13-11, 8-4 Colonial Athletic Association) hit six 3-pointers and shot 54.1 percent from the field (20-for-37) to build a 47-30 halftime lead and win for the fourth time in five games; I expect this team to continue to build momentum. Leading 17-16, Drexel pulled away with a 17-3 run to take a 34-19 advantage with 7:29 remaining. Derrick Thomas, who scored 12 points, hit a jumper to extend the Dragons’ lead to 47-30 with 45 seconds left in the first half. Samme Givens had eight points and 10 rebounds and Kevin Phillip added nine points and nine boards for Drexel, which outrebounded Towson 45-32 and swept the season series (note: Drexel is 5-0 ATS its last five overall; 5-1 ATS its last six played in front of the hometown crowd). Drexel has many key matchup advantages; lay the points.

Good luck...Larry.

REASON FOR PICK: At 9:00 ET my *10* "TOM" is on the OVER in Michigan State/Illinois.

If the Spartans lose Saturday night in Illinois, their chances of being the top seed in the Big Ten tournament will be threatened. The Spartans (19-4, 3-5 ATS on road) looked overmatched in Tuesday’s 18-point loss at Wisconsin (MSU’s first in conference play), which was exacerbated by an injury to star point guard Kalin Lucas. The reigning Big Ten Player of the Year sprained his ankle midway through the second half against the Badgers and didn’t return. He is considered “very, very questionable” for tonight’s game after not practicing since getting hurt. Lucas leads the team in minutes, points and assists and has hit several key shots in the final seconds of close games this season. He had a streak of 33 consecutive games with double-figure points ended at Wisconsin. Korie Lucious, who is averaging 5.2 ppg and 3.8 ppg in 21 minutes, would get the start if Lucas can’t go. Illinois (15-8, 4-7 ATS at home) has won three games in a row and is 11-1 in on-campus home games, with the loss coming against current Top 10 team Purdue. Point guard Demetri McCamey leads the team in scoring (15.1 ppg) and assists (6.2 apg) and could have a big day with Lucas likely out. When Illinois and Michigan State met in East Lansing on Jan. 16 – a 73-63 Spartans win but Illini cover – McCamey led the team with 15 points, but the rest of the starters totaled only 20. Lucas, meanwhile, had 20 that day to outduel McCamey. In that first meeting the Illini shot only 34.9 percent from the field (note: the total has gone "over" the posted number in four of Illinois's last five overall and in eight of its last ten at home). Because of the Lucas injury, this line is too low; play on the OVER.

Good luck...Larry.

REASON FOR PICK: At 2:00 ET the third play of my STEP is an *8* on Penn State.

Tubby Smith took Minnesota from nine wins (the year before he arrived) to 20 wins and an NIT appearance in his first season. Last year's team won 22 games and got an NCAA bid. Expectations were sky-high in Minneapolis this year with four returning starters but the Golden Gophers have disappointed with a 13-8 overall mark (4-5 in the Big 10). Penn St won the NIT championship last year going 27-11, which is a school record for wins in a single-season. Gone from that team is Cornley (14.4-6.4) and Pringle (12.8) with guard Battle (19.0-5.5-3.8) the only returning player from last year's "Big 3." Not much has gone right for the Nittany Lions this season as they enter 8-14 and at 0-10 in Big 10 play, are the league's lone winless team. Minnesota is a much deeper team led by guards Westbrook (13.4) and Hoffarber (11.5) plus four other players averaging 21 MPG (four more average at least 10 minutes). However, isn't it about time the Nittay Lions win a conference game? Why not here vs Minnesota, which is just 1-5 SU on the road this season? Take the home dog.

Good luck...Larry.
REASON FOR PICK: At 2:00 ET the second play of my STP is an *8* on Iowa State.

Kansas St comes in 18-4 and ranked 10th in the AP (tied with Duke). Frank Martin has a quality backcourt in Pullen (19.0-2.6-3.5) and Clemente (15.0-4.0 APG). The best frontcourt performers are starters Kelly (11.2-6.3) and Sutton (7.5-5.5) plus the 6-7 Samuels (11.9-5.1), who comes off the bench. Iowa St enters this game having lost four of five and that's not the worst news. The Cyclones have lost 18 straight games vs ranked opponents dating back to December of 2005. However, ISU is 10-3 SU at home this season and in the 6-10 Brackins (16.5-8.0) plus the 6-6 Gilstrap (14.5-9.3), have "difference-makers." Again, I'm taking the home dog.

Good luck...Larry.

REASON FOR PICK: At 2:00 ET the first play of my STP is an *8* on Boston College.

Duke is 18-4 overall and its 6-2 ACC has them in first place. The Blue Devils are led by guards Scheyer (18.8-3.4-5.7) and Smith (18.0-2.6-3.1) plus forward Singler (16.8-7.1). In comparison, it's been a tough season for Al Skinner's BC Eagles who enter 12-10 overall (3-5 in the ACC), after getting seven NCAA bids the last nine seasons. However, I believe BC is better than its record. Forwards Trapani (14.5-6.5) and Raji (11.4-6.4) are quality players with swingman Sanders (10.9-3.4-2.1) plus sophomore guard Jackson (13.6-5.8-4.1) giving the Eagles a group of players who can compete. BC bested Duke here in Chestnut Hill last year (80-74) and lost just 66-65 in the ACC tourney. Duke has played just five true road games this year, going 1-4 SU. I'm taking the home dog.

Good Luck...Larry.