2-19-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Mreast ncaab friday bracket buster deluxe

#835 william & mary tribe @ #836 iona gaels 9pm est

play on #835 william & mary +4 -110 for 3 units

[Mr. IWS]

Analyst: Jack Burnet
50,000 Dime NBA TV GOY

50,000 Dime Magic -6

[Mr. IWS]

Trent Citron

10 units on Cleveland Cavs
8 units Orlando Magic
8 units Toronto Raptors
6 Units Atlanta Hawks
6 units William and Mary
5 units Old Dominion

[Hornetsnest]

PICK 'N' ROLL

Today's best NBA bets

Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic (-6, 201)

It might not seem like a big injury, but the Mavs are going to miss center Erick Dampier. Sure, newly acquired big man Brendan Haywood will eat up the starter’s minutes, but who’s his back up now?
Tim Thomas? Eduardo Najera?

Neither of those two guys can guard an elite big man like Dwight Howard. The Mavs will be in a bad spot if Haywood picks up two quick fouls guarding Howard.

Caron Butler seems to be fitting in well with his new team. The former All-Star gives Dallas another perimeter player (Shawn Marion is the other) who can provide above average defense. Of course, he’s also a below average shooting player, especially at the two-guard.

Look for the Magic to earn a win over the up-and-down Mavericks.

Pick: Magic


Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns (-3.5, 212)

Is there a more depressing team in the NBA than the Phoenix Suns? Yeah, they are exciting to watch but everyone knows they’re a first-round exit waiting to happen in the playoffs.

Phoenix played chicken with Cleveland on a trade involving Amare Stoudemire and lost. Now the team is stuck in limbo until he opts out of his contract in the offseason.

The Suns still love to run but that won’t be wise against the Hawks. Atlanta is at its best creating turnovers and getting fast-break baskets.

Pick: Hawks

[Hornetsnest]

Arthur Ralph Sports
400 - 285 run 59 %

Free Play FRI Columbia -1

[Hornetsnest]

SPORTS ADVISORS

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19

NBA

Dallas (33-21, 22-32 ATS) at Orlando (37-18, 28-26-1 ATS)
The Mavericks continue their frantic stretch of four games in five nights with a stop at Amway Arena in Orlando for a matchup with the red-hot Magic.
Dallas followed up the All-Star break with a trip to Oklahoma City on Tuesday and fell 99-86 as a 4½-point underdog, but it bounced back and beat Phoenix 107-97at home as a four-point favorite on Wednesday. Now the Mavericks are in Orlando and then return home for a matchup with the Heat on Saturday. Dallas is 17-12 (16-13 ATS) on the road this season, but even though they held the high-scoring Suns to double digits on Wednesday, they’ve had trouble stopping teams, allowing 111.4 points per game over their last five on 50.4 percent shooting.
Orlando has won 11 of its last 14 (8-6 ATS) and crushed Detroit 116-91 on Wednesday, easily cashing as an 11-point home chalk. Dwight Howard was unstoppable with 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocked shots. The Magic have increased their productivity lately, averaging 109.6 ppg over their last five, eight more than their season average.
This is the first meeting between these two this season, but Dallas has won five of the last six (3-3 ATS) and seven of the last nine overall (3-6 ATS). Last season, the Mavericks went to Orlando and scored a 105-95 upset last season as 7½-point underdogs and have won and covered in Amway Arena each of the last three seasons. The road team and underdog are a perfect 5-0 ATS in each of the last five matchups.
Even though it easily cashed against Phoenix two nights ago, Dallas has been a disaster at the betting window of late, as it is currently on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 5-16 after getting a day off, 1-4 on the road, 0-4 as an underdog, 0-11 after a spread-cover and 1-6 against Southeast Division foes. Conversely, Orlando has covered in five of seven as a chalk and four straight after a day off, but from there the Magic are on ATS skids of 5-11 after a spread-cover, 2-5 on Friday and 1-6 against Southwest Division teams.
The Mavericks are on several “over” runs, including 14-6 as road ‘dogs, 13-5 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 on Fridays and 4-0 following a straight-up win. On the opposite end, the Magic are on “under” streaks of 14-6 overall, 39-18 after a day off, 10-1 on Fridays, 12-4 as favorites and 4-1 against the Western Conference.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in eight of the last nine clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Atlanta (34-18, 33-19 ATS) at Phoenix (32-23, 29-26 ATS)
The Hawks continue their West Coast road trip with a stop at US Airways Center in Phoenix for a matchup with the Suns.
Atlanta began its four-game jaunt with a 110-92 win in Los Angeles on Wednesday, cashing as a seven-point favorite against the Clippers. All-Star Al Horford had a stellar performance, going 12-of-15 from the field for 31 points and six rebounds. Even with the win in L.A., the Hawks are only 13-12 on the road this season, but have cashed in 15 of those 25 contests.
Phoenix was in Dallas on Wednesday, losing 107-97 to the Mavericks as a four-point underdog, with Amare Stoudemire putting up 30 points and grabbing 14 rebounds in the losing effort. The 97 points snapped a 13-game streak in which the Suns had reached triple digits and was just the second time they fell short of the century mark in 27 contests. At home, Phoenix puts up 112.7 ppg and shoots 49.6 percent from the floor.
These two met on Jan. 15 in Atlanta with the Hawks pulling out a 102-101 victory, but falling short as 5½-point favorites. The road team has cashed in five of the last seven, and the underdog has grabbed the cash in four of the last five overall.
The Hawks are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road ‘dog of up to 4 ½-points, but they are on ATS runs of 21-10-1 against Western Conference teams, 8-2 after getting a day off and 4-1 on Fridays. The Suns are on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference and 3-7 as favorites, but they have cashed in 11 of 15 on Fridays and six of eight overall.
For Atlanta, the “under” is 14-6-1 in its last 21 as a ‘dog and 10-2-1 after a straight-up win, but the “over” has been the play in three of five on the road and five of six against Pacific Division teams. Phoenix is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 13-4 against Southeast Division teams, 12-4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 as a home favorite, 4-0 on Fridays and 5-2 as a favorite.
Finally, the “under” is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two, but the “over” has cashed in five of the last six played in the desert.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


Boston (34-18, 20-31-1 ATS) at Portland (32-24, 30-25-1 ATS)
One night after pulling off an 87-86 upset win over the rival Lakers, the Celtics return to the court for a matchup against the Trail Blazers inside the Rose Garden.
Boston went to Los Angeles on Thursday night and eked out a one-point win as a 2½-point underdog, with Ray Allen leading the charge with 24 points. The Celtics are three games into their five-game Western Conference road trip, but they’re still on slides of 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and 3-7 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season.
Portland has been off since Tuesday when it beat the Clippers 109-87, cashing as a 7½-point favorite. Martell Webster put up 28 points to lead the Blazers, and All-Star guard Brandon Roy had just four points in 15 minutes of action as he eases his way back into the lineup after missing 15 consecutive games with a strained hamstring.
The Celtics have dominated this series, winning eight of the last nine and cashing in eight of the last 10. Back on Jan. 22 in Boston, the Celtics prevailed 98-95 in overtime, but came nowhere near covering the 10½-point spread as the road team improved to 13-6 ATS in the last 19 series clashes. Last season in Portland, the Blazers got their first win over the Celtics since 2004 with a 91-86 upset as a 6½-point home pup.
Boston is on ATS slides of 2-9-1 against Western Conference teams, 0-4 on Fridays and 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against teams with winning road marks, but it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 Friday games and 4-0 in its last four against Eastern Conference teams.
The Celtics have topped the total in six of nine against teams with a winning record and four straight against Northwest Division squads, but stayed “under” the number in five straight overall and five straight against Western Conference teams. The Blazers have stayed below the posted number in four of five at home, but gone “over” the number in six of seven on Fridays and five of seven against teams with a winning record.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in six of the last nine overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON


COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Old Dominion (21-7, 10-14 ATS) at Northern Iowa (23-3, 16-9 ATS)
Bracket Buster weekend tips off with an intriguing battle at the McLeod Center in Cedar Falls, Iowa, where the Panthers host Old Dominion in a matchup of two of the nation’s top defensive squads.
The Monarchs carry a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) into this contest, having knocked off Towson 78-67 on Tuesday, falling way short as a 23-point home favorite. Old Dominion is tied with Northeastern atop the Colonial Athletic Association standings at 13-3, and it is 17-4 in its last 21 contests, a surge that began with a stunning 61-57 victory at then-No. 11 Georgetown as a nine-point underdog.
Playing without 7-foot center Jordan Eglseder, who is serving a three-game team-imposed suspension, Northern Iowa had little trouble with Creighton on Tuesday, cruising 70-52 as an 8½-point home favorite. At 14-2 in conference play, the Panthers hold a three-game lead in the Horizon League standings. They’re also 9-1 in non-conference action this season (6-3 ATS in lined games).
Despite their victory at Georgetown back in December, the Monarchs are just 7-7 SU and 5-8 ATS away from home this year, where they average 64 points per game but give up just 59.1 ppg. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is a perfect 12-0 at the McLeod Center (8-4 ATS), outscoring visitors by 12.5 ppg (65.6-53.1).
Both teams thrive on defense, as the Panthers are second in the nation in allowing 55.1 ppg, one spot ahead of Old Dominion, which surrenders 55.8 ppg.
Old Dominion faced Liberty in a Bracket Buster game last year and rolled 80-56 as a nine-point home chalk, improving to 4-0 Bracket Buster contests the last four years (3-1 ATS). Northern Iowa has lost three straight Bracket Busters, including last year’s 81-75 setback at Siena. However, the Panthers cashed as a seven-point road underdog against Siena, ending an 0-3 ATS slide in this made-for-TV event.
Other than their recent success in Bracket Buster contests, the Monarchs are in ATS slumps of 2-6 in non-conference play, 1-4 on Friday, 1-5 after a SU win and 2-6 against winning teams. The Panthers are on pointspread surges of 14-6 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-0 in non-league outings and 21-8 versus winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five after both a SU and ATS win.
These defensive-minded squads are both on a series of low-scoring streaks. For Old Dominion, the “under” is on runs of 21-9 overall, 19-7 on the road, 4-0 in non-conference contests, 6-1 on Friday, 16-6 after a SU win and 5-1 after a non-cover. Northern Iowa carries “under” trends of 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-1 in non-conference action, 8-2 on Friday, 21-8 after a SU win and 6-1 following a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

[Hornetsnest]

insider sports report

4* northern iowa
3* cornell
3* new orleans

[Hornetsnest]

ATSKINGS


Tony Taylor Card for Friday February 19th



4* Cleveland Cavaliers -4 (NBA GOW)

[Hornetsnest]

RedZone Sports

free internet play (passed yesterday after winning 4 in a row): No Iowa/Old Dom over (NCAAB)

[Hornetsnest]

Analyst: Jack Burnet
50,000 Dime NBA TV GOY

50,000 Dime Magic -6

[Hornetsnest]

Milwaukee at Detroit
The Bucks look to bounce back from their 127-99 loss to Houston and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Milwaukee is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee. Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19

Game 801-802: Denver at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.764; Washington 116.256
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 209
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6); Under

Game 803-804: Cleveland at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.342; Charlotte 121.723
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5); Over

Game 805-806: San Antonio at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.520; Philadelphia 118.741
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 195
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Over

Game 807-808: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 120.465; Detroit 112.067
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 8 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 189
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee; Under

Game 809-810: Dallas at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 115.364; Orlando 125.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 10 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6 1/2); Over

Game 811-812: Indiana at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.045; New Orleans 116.086
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 202
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Under

Game 813-814: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 118.170; Minnesota 113.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2); Over

Game 815-816: Toronto at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.403; New Jersey 109.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 10; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3 1/2); Under

Game 817-818: Miami at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 116.022; Memphis 120.509
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6); Over

Game 819-820: Atlanta at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.999; Phoenix 126.354
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2); Under

Game 821-822: Utah at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 126.332; Golden State 114.489
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 12; 227
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 6; 219
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-6); Over

Game 823-824: Boston at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.215; Portland 123.331
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 7 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-2); Under

[Hornetsnest]

NCAAB DUNKEL


Old Dominion at Northern Iowa
The Panthers look to take advantage of an ODU team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a road underdog between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Northern Iowa is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-3). Here are all of today's games.

FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 19

Game 825-826: Yale at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 45.504; Princeton 59.825
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-11 1/2)

Game 827-828: Columbia at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 44.058; Dartmouth 41.727
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 1
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-1)

Game 829-830: Brown at Pennsylvania
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 43.053; Pennsylvania 44.287
Dunkel Line: Pennsylvania by 1
Vegas Line: Pennsylvania by 5
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+5)

Game 831-832: Cornell at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 67.333; Harvard 59.937
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cornell by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-2 1/2)

Game 833-834: Old Dominion at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 63.706; Northern Iowa 69.556
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 6
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 3
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-3)

Game 835-836: William & Mary at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 56.531; Iona 62.114
Dunkel Line: Iona by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-3 1/2)

Game 517-518: Portland at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 65.351; Pepperdine 47.852
Dunkel Line: Portland by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland by 10
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-10)

[Mr. IWS]

KB HOOPS

5* Northern Iowa -3 *POD*
4* William & Mary +3.5
3* Harvard +2.5

4* Hornets -4.5
4* Wizards +7
4* Jazz -6
3* Bulls -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

BILLY COLEMAN
4* Phoenix -3.5
3* San Antonio -3.5
4* Cornell - 2.5
3* Yale 11.5
3* < 122.5 William Mary-Iona
free pick Utah -6

[Mr. IWS]

RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS (RAS)
Rotation: 835
> William & Mary (+4.5) Rating: 1.00
> Game Time: 06:00pm PST
> Released at: 7:30:00am PST

[Mr. IWS]

VR`s Morning Moves - Friday, February 19, 2010

Report Status: FRIDAY FEB 19th, 2010
Next Report: BY 12:00pm est on SAT 2-20-10
Notes:
“MORNING MOVES” NEWSLETTER & LINE-PREDICTION for FRIDAY FEB 18th, 2010
HANDICAPPING LINE-MOVES : “MOVING on AIR…NOT MONEY ANYMORE”

Good Morning Ladies & Gentlemen…We did it again, beating the books with a “Morning Move” Personal Play…to make us “6-1” on those positions…and now “12-5” (71% ATS) Overall…
We are PERFECT (4-0) on “Morning Moves” TRUE STEAM…And today, for my Premium Subscribers…I’ve isolated an NBA 3* TRUE STEAM GAME OF THE WEEK…
We’ve had ONLY “1” NBA 3* TRUE STEAM in 2010 (Winner)…So you can see that the bet has to meet some stiff parameters before I’ll step up and fire…And for Today’s “Morning Moves”, we’ll try to move to “7-1” because I’ve Confirmed another “Personal Play”…VR

Now when the idea for creating this Newsletter was brought to me, I had 3 goals for what I wanted it to accomplish…Other than obviously passing along strong, accurate, & winning information…
I wanted to be able to help bettors build a strong foundation for their business…Meaning, I wanted to pass along all of the thing that I’ve learned from other winning sports bettors…and experiences that I’ve had, which hurt and helped me build my own business…The concepts which we’ll cover most for this to happen, will deal with “Money Management”…as well as understanding the way the market functions…So that they can eventually become more efficient sports bettors…
Second, I wanted to pass along so many of the handicapping theories and concepts that I’ve learned and acquired over the years…to help make my subscribers more efficient handicappers and get a better understanding of the factors that actually matter, when trying to determine where there is value…
Finally, I wanted to be able to offer an opportunity for my Subscribers to be able to ask ANY questions that they may have…And I mean ANY…From money management & handicapping questions…to understanding the market and my own personal experiences…Because although I want to make sure that I cover those topics that I know for certain will help you build a strong business…I also want to make sure that I cover those topics that YOU want covered…From things that interest you, to simple questions about something that you want an accurate answer for…
So please make sure that you go ahead and pass along those topic, questions, concerns, ect…Because I want to make sure that you can use me to be that source which you are certain will give you an accurate answer…And more importantly, one that is my honest opinion…Plus, when it’s about something that I do not believe I am the best source to give you an answer, or topic that I am not that efficient on…you can rest assured that I have enough contacts and sources in this industry that I can go to, and make sure you are receiving an accurate response…
The reason I brought this up is because one of the members of the Pregame Forum, who I can tell has a huge thirst for information and education…put up a thread and asked a question that I believe many others have…And I really felt that it’s such an important question, that I would go ahead and cover it here on a Newsletter…Because it has to do with the sports betting market…And since I feel there is nothing more important than understanding how this market functions, I will go ahead and give you my opinion and what I know to actually be fact…
The question this gentleman had, was this…Since the sports books claim that their ultimate goal is to try and entice “split” action/money on each side & total…so they can retrieve the “VIG” without any risk…then why do we see almost the EXACT same line at every sports book for a particular side and total, especially off-shore…And more importantly, why don’t we see each book adjust their lines based on what is being bet into that particular sports book…
Which makes sense, because we don’t expect that EVERY book has the exact same amount of money bet on each side and total…as the next book…That just isn‘t possible…And he is absolutely correct, so let me tell you what I know…Because as a forum “Runner”, who wagered “steam” for different Betting Syndicates for a very long time…Using local books when I lived on the east coast…and eventually coming out here to Vegas, where I then did 70% of my wagering through books on the Strip…I can tell you that it wasn’t always this way…In fact, this is what changed the sports betting market forever…Let me explain…
Prior to the internet…most books got their opening lines one way or another…From city newspapers to line-services…The smaller books simply used the lines from their city paper, and adjusted sometimes for their home teams, knowing their clients would come in on that side…And they would then adjust if they were getting a lot of money wagered on the same team or total…Until finally, they were infiltrated by someone like myself, who moved “steam” and beat them enough…that they finally used us as their primary line-service, moving the lines on games we bet…to stop other Wiseguys from betting into them and also to try and entice the betting public to go the other way so they can try and balance their books…Or they simply dropped us and continued using paper lines and remaining small…
Bigger bookmaking operations would almost all use a line-service…And depending on how much you were willing to spend, they would give you an opening line…then each day update it, usually based on what the Startdust Sportsbook had…And for those that were very big, and knew they were infiltrated by Betting Syndicates…they would actually receive phone-calls from the line-service which gave them as close to up-to-the-minute line moves as you can have…Keep in mind, these line-services had to see a place like the Stardust, as well as another book or 2 move their lines…before they realized it was a “Syndicate Play”…Then they would have to call you and give you the move…
Almost always, if you had a Wiseguy betting into your book…that received the “Buy-Order” quick enough…the line-service was never able to give you the adjustment quick enough to stop them from betting into you…And this is why for the bigger books, we became an asset more than a liability…
So because of this, you had a wide range of lines from bookmaker to bookmaker…And even here in Vegas, the competition then was who would put out the first line (Stardust) and who would be willing to also put out their own line…Meaning, have an opinion of your own…Because back then, the way we worked was simple…I would be stationed at the Startdust at 5:00pm est on Sunday evening, and based on what number I drew from the “lottery”…I would then get in lne at one of the many betting windows…And at 5:30, the lines would go up for the next week’s games…and based on our instructions we would be…And this would also go on daily at around 7:30am for weekday sports…
Anyway, while I was at the Stardust…another one of our “runners” was at the Hilton or Bally’s…And they would try and get their lines up within 30min of when the Stardust opened up…Which is why many times, we would wait before tipping our hand on the positions we were looking for…Well at those other books, their odds maker also had an opinion…And many times, the Stardust would bring our TEAM A -11 and the Hilton would bring our TEAM A at -14...And considering where the Outfit cappers thought the line should be, we would take the points or lay them at the book that benefited us most…And on those games that we didn’t have an opinion, we would simply use these inefficiencies to try and “middle” the game…Eventually, the way we bet would force the adjustment because they knew we won more than we lost…And within hours, the lines on the Strip would all look similar…Which is what you would then see in your city paper…
So back then, the only way that most books would move their lines…was when actual “MONEY” was bet into them…And not change a line simply because another book did so…Especially since back then, they wouldn’t work together much and didn’t know a side or total was getting “steamed” anyway…But as the books started realizing that these Betting Syndicates were taking all of the profit’s the book was making from squares…this had to change…And they began sharing that information and adjusting their lines, because let’s face it…if a casino had their way, they would much prefer to put slot machines in that space than a sports book…Which ultimately brings in less profit than any other type gaming on their floor…But it’s a courtesy to their guests, who may win $10,000 playing craps…and then want to bet it on a game...These were the kind of clients they wanted, not us…
So the books started sharing info…And that’s about the time the internet made doing this very simple…Now the books were able to move their lines on “AIR”…without booking a single penny…What they do is see that a sharp book has adjusted their line…and then they do the same in an attempt to stop the Betting Syndicates from getting down…Believe it or not, that’s the money that the books worry about the most…not the public money because they know that the betting public doesn’t have the discipline needed when it comes to money management to beat them over time…And their 11 to win 10 odds is enough of an edge….
Now obviously there are times that the betting public is so one-sided on a game, that the books will be forced to adjust…But it’s on those games that we tend to see a ½ to 1pt difference from one book to the other…The internet changed the game forever, and this market is so different now but still very inefficient…But with that said, these books are now all simply looking at a screen and when a sharp book moves their line…they go ahead and do the same…Sad but true…And that’s moving on “Air”…
Finally, another reason we see this is because believe it or not…there are only a handful of actual licensees’ out there…But there are 100’s of books…What many don’t know is that they are all simply a by-product of the main sports book or company…Meaning, ABC Inc has the license, and they put up 20 sports books with different names…But in essence, you are really betting into the same book…regardless which one you happen to be using…
Now I will most likely dig deeper into this subject, because there is a lot that will explain how this market works…And I also want to explain the many ways that the Betting Syndicates and Pro Bettors are able to take advantage of it…Because from my experience, they are always a few steps ahead of the sports books…
Thanks again for all your support, and best of luck…Vegas-Runner

LINE-PREDICTIONS :
1.) 821/822 OVER 218.5 UTAH/GST
This is one of those Totals, that I can just feel is going to move upwards…I think it’s the ex-bookmakers’ instinct, or the fact that I’ve looked at lines every single day for the last 20+ yrs…But regardless, I think that the market will be forced to adjust because this will be an extremely 1-sided bet total…Only if the Wiseguys step in and go Under, will we see this move the other way…But so far, I have not heard that anyone is looking to do this…VR
2.) 833/834 OVER 113 OLD/NIOWA
This is a position that I know the Betting Syndicates will be taking, although I haven’t been able to Confirm if it’s an actual position they want to take…or simply a case of getting ahead of the market, which is definitely going to be betting on the Over…Some books opened as low as 111, while other at 112...But I’ve been told that even at the initial adjustment of 113...the “buy-order” will have them going over again…which should cause a much bigger adjustment this time around…VR



Fri, 02/19/10 - 8:05 PM VR's Morning Moves | NBA Sides
double-dime bet 816 NJN 2.5 (-110) Bodog vs 815 TOR
Analysis: ** NBA "MORNING MOVES" 2* PERSONAL PLAY **
This is one of those spots where the oddsmakers just couldn't adjust for the injury to Bosh enough, because the Raptors are playing the Nets...And the fact the betting public will be backing tthe Raptors regardless means they had no reason to...The lack of adjustment has gotten the Wiseguys to jump on the Nets, and accoording to my numbers, they are definitely getting value...So let's see if we can go to "7-1" on Personal Plays by grabbing the Home Dog to...VR

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS NBA

GOOD LUCK!

5-Unit NBA Game of the Week #804 Take Charlotte +4 1/2 Over Cleveland
3-Unit Play #808 Take Detroit ‘pick’ over Milwaukee
3-Unit Play #610 Take Orlando -6 ½ Over Dallas
4-Unit Play #815 Take Toronto -2 Over New Jersey

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Friday's Lineup


20 Dime – ODU-Northern Iowa UNDER



20 Dime – BOBCATS



20 Dime – HORNETS



I will be back by 4:00 pm with my analysis.

[Mr. IWS]

Fargo


Bobcats 10*
Magic 9*
Trail Blazers 9*

[Mr. IWS]

TOM STRYKER
3*orlando

[Hornetsnest]

YOURPROLOCKS

30 Dime Orlando Magic

[Hornetsnest]

FIREMAN
Diceituponline CBB Play

Columbia -1 = 10 Dimes

[Hornetsnest]

OutlawSportsAdvisors

Nuggets -5.5

[Hornetsnest]

CapTheTrap

5* Bobcats +4
3* Dartmouth +1
2* Old Dominion +3

[Hornetsnest]

JOHNNY GUILD
Friday, February 19th, 2010 8:00 PM EST.

Dallas Mavericks (33-21) at Orlando Magic (37-18)

Dallas is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, 1-4 ATS in its last 5 on the road. Look for Orlando to play tough defense tonight in their house. Take the hot Magic to win the first meeting of this season against the Mavericks. Orlando is 21-5 at home this season.

Orlando Magic -6

Friday, February 19th, 2010 (Eastern Time)
Time Selections 7:00 PM

Northern Iowa Panthers -3

[Hornetsnest]

THE EDGE

NBA
3* Over Utah

NCAA
3* Northern Iowa

[Hornetsnest]

IGZ1 SPORTS

NBA
4* San Antonio -3 (-110)
3* Cleveland -4 (-110)

CBB
3* Northern Iowa -3 (-110)

[Hornetsnest]

HOT SHOT SPORTS

5* GOM - Denver (6)
3* San Antono (3.5)
3* Utah (6.5)

[Hornetsnest]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Magic
Mavericks

[Hornetsnest]

BIGSLICKBETS
Today's Rated Plays;

5* Timberwolves +2.5

4* Old Dominion +3.5

4* Brown +6

3* Hornets -3.5

[Hornetsnest]

RIZZO
Diceituponline

15 DIMES SAN ANTONIO SPURS -3

[Hornetsnest]

TROY SNIPES
3*(nba)Milw.Bucks+1
(5-0)Sweep Yesterday

[Hornetsnest]

BEATTHEFIX

5* Bobcats +4.5
4* Dartmouth +2
3* Old Dominion +3

[Hornetsnest]

GAMBLERS DATA
New Orleans -4.5 NBA

[Hornetsnest]

Bob Balfe (YTD -- NBA 67-44 / NCAA 51-42)

NBA Basketball

Magic -6.5 over Mavs

Two key pieces of analysis to this game is the point guard (Kidd vs Nelson) and center (Dampier vs Howard) performances tonight. Right now, Jameer Nelson is a better true point guard than Jason Kidd, who's play is diminishing by the game. Dallas is no longer a worthy contender now that they traded their most underrated player on their team. Dwight Howard is going to absolutely bully Dampier (as he did in their previous matchup) and Nelson will be giving Kidd problems all night. Look for Dallas to score well under their average of 100 points a game and the Magic to win every quarter convincingly. This should easily be a double-digit for a surging Orlando, who are now starting to really find their groove by implementing a pretty good player by the name of Vince Carter. Big win tonight for the Magic. Take Orlando -6.5.

[Hornetsnest]

DEREK MANCINI

30 dime Bobcats (plus the points)

[Hornetsnest]

AccuScore Premium Pick Sheet

NBA
Chi -1
Dal/Orl under 204
Orl -6.5
Atl/Pho over 213

NCAA
Columbia/Dartmouth over 115
Harvard +3

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Friday's Lineup


20 Dime – ODU-Northern Iowa UNDER



20 Dime – BOBCATS



20 Dime – HORNETS



ODU/NORTHERN IOWA UNDER --- Vegas is trying to play a trick on the general public, listing a total as small as I can remember in a long time. This total tells me two things. First, it tells me Vegas knows this is going to be a defensive battle, with every possession having more meaning than the last. Second, anytime Vegas posts a total this low, they are just begging you to take the OVER. The general public loves to bet favorites and overs, and that's what they are hoping we all do in this one. I'm sorry, but I'm not buying it. Maybe Northern Iowa covers, maybe they don't, but if they do it's going to be because they hold Old Dominion in the 40s. That's not my concern. My concern is that neither team gets up into the high 50s or we might have to sweat this. I still love the UNDER, but that's why it's only a 20-dimer as opposed to a 40- or 50-dimer... because it's likely to come down to the last few minutes. You can't expect a total to be this low and not have to sweat it out. Honestly, the only way I see this thing going over is if there are an inordinate amount of fouls OR we get overtime. In eight of their last 10 games, ODU has held their opponents to 55 points or less, and since Northern Iowa doesn't quite score like some of the teams the Monarchs have played recently, I don't think there's any question the Panthers stay below 55. Let's also remember ODU held Georgetown to just 57 points on the road a few months back. These guys play "D", and Northern Iowa is going to have to earn every point they score. Same goes for Northern Iowa... they pride themselves on their defense, holding six of their last eight opponents to 56 points or less. I don't usually like backing an UNDER when every trend in the book says this game is going under, but I'll take my chances. Expect both teams to score in the low 50s which should keep this game around 110.



BOBCATS --- Again, I'm going against the general public and what Vegas is begging us to do. Think about it... the Cavs just played the toughest game they've played in quite some time last night... an OT loss vs. Denver... and now they have to go on the road to play a very athletic, very angry Charlotte team who should be completely rested. The general public expects bettors to just jump all over the Cavs, assuming they are ticked off losing last night's game to the point they come in tonight and just absolutely demolish Charlotte. Sorry, but I don't believe that's happening. I'm much more comfortable backing a team playing at home (where they are 19-7) than a team coming in off the type of game the Cavs just played. If this line were upwards of 7 or 8, I might be scared off it a little as Vegas would then be begging you to take the Bobcats. Might be a little fishy. But listing this number around 4 1/2 is telling me they are begging us to play Cleveland, and I just can't bite. Charlotte has already beaten the Cavs twice this year, and it's starting to remind me of the way the Wizards played the Cavs last year. Remember, for whatever reason, even though the Cavs were dominating everyone, they just couldn't seem to be able to figure out the Wizards. I think this year's Bobcats are last year's Wizards. Yes, Cleveland did win the first matchup of these two teams back on October 31st, but even then the Bobcats covered the number. Since then Charlotte has won and covered both of the other meetings, winning by an average of 5 PPG and easily covering both numbers. I think it's safe to say the Bobcats were looking past the Nets in their last game (the first since the All Star break), and now we get to see if it was actually worth looking past them. If they get the SU win tonight, all will be forgiven. If they don't, Larry Brown will be criticized even more for not having his guys ready vs. New Jersey. This one comes down to the wire, and I like the Bobcats to actually win this thing SU.



HORNETS --- Has anyone noticed that the loss of Chris Paul isn't actually hurting this Hornets team as much as we first thought. Oh sure, at first it was tough to adjust, but a young man by the name of Darren Collison has really stepped up over the last four games and has made the New Orleans faithful forget (at least somewhat) about Paul. Collison has scored 24 or more points in each of his last four, dished out 9 assists in three of his last four, and has grabbed at least three boards in the last four. Collison has filled in nicely, and it hasn't been against crappy competition either. Boston, Utah, Orlando and Charlotte are the opponents in which Collison decided to "start playing". With Collison playing this well, it has only made those around him better. Peja Stojakovic is starting to score more and Emeka Okafor doesn't have to worry about scoring as much now, so he's able to stay inside, grab boards and block shots. As much as I like Indiana, I just don't think they have the horses to compete for 48 minutes, espeically on the road where they have won just 6 games all season. New Orleans should start strong, and I expect them to finish strong. I think they win this thing by at least 8 points tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

alatex
15* Old Dom +3

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

20* Big Ticket Mavericks
Bobcats
Wizards

[Mr. IWS]

Erin Rynning

2/19/10 NBA Charlotte +4.5 -110 (804)

2/19/10 NBA 20* Playmaker: New Orleans Over 205 -110 (812)

2/19/10 NBA Portland Under 186.5 -110 (824)

[Mr. IWS]

25* Non-Conference Total of the Year...

Lenny Del Genio | NBA Total Fri, 02/19/10
Triple-Dime bet 819 ATL / 820 PHO Over 212.0

[Mr. IWS]

SPARTAN


**Triple Star Release**

Portland +6 vs. Boston

[kar261]

Steven Budin-CEO
FRIDAY'S PLAY
25 Dime Release

Cornell minus the points at Harvard. $[]The game tips off at 7:00 P.M. Eastern. This is their 14th play the past three years, and fifth this season, of which they are 3-1 so far (all of which I've brought you).