View Full Version : UFC 115 discussion/odds
Some of the proposed fights /rumored fights
Main Card I'm guessing
Randy Couture- Rich Franklin
Chuck Liddell -Tito Ortiz
Ben Rothwell- Cro Cop
Wanderlei Silva-Yoshihiro Akiyama
Gilbert Yvel - Pat Barry
Undercard I'm guessing:
Tyson Griffin - Evan Dunham
Carlos Condit - Rory MacDonald
James Wilks - Peter Sobotta
Mike Pyle - Jesse Lennox
Anyone with picks,discussion or odds guesses on any of these fights besides the Cro Cop-Rothwell fight which we already know
Mr. IWS
02-25-2010, 08:29 AM
Im a fan of Pat Barry, that fight with Yvel will be FON in my opinion.
Mr. IWS
02-25-2010, 08:30 AM
Also, War Wandy.
Wandy via rape choke beat down.
I just read Pat Berry is going to fight Cro Cop now and Ben Rothwell will now fight Yvel
Mr. IWS
02-27-2010, 06:23 PM
I just read Pat Berry is going to fight Cro Cop now and Ben Rothwell will now fight Yvel
A pair of heavyweight strikers collide in June at UFC 115 now that Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic (26-7-2 MMA, 3-3 UFC) and Pat Barry (5-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) have agreed to a matchup.
Sources close to the event today told MMAjunkie.com (http://www.mmajunkie.com) bout agreement should be distributed shortly and that the competitors were told it'll be part of the night's pay-per-view main card. MMAScrapsRadio.com first reported the fight earlier today.
Barry initially was expected to fight Gilbert Yvel (36-14-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) at the June 12 event.
Although not officially announced by the UFC, UFC 115 takes at GM Place in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
With Barry not fighting Filipovic, his original opponent, Yvel, instead fights Ben Rothwell, as MMAjunkie.com first reported earlier today.
Barry's opponent, Filipovic, recently evened his UFC record to 3-3 with a second-round TKO of late replacement Anthony Perosh at UFC 110. (Perosh replaced Rothwell, who was forced off the card due to traveler's flu.) Although sometimes slow and sluggish in the bout, Filipovic nevertheless controlled the pace of the fight and staked claim to the win, which moves him to 4-1 (with one no-contest) over his six fights, which have come in the UFC and DREAM.
Claude Patrick signs with UFC will more than likely fight at UFC 115
Claude Patrick (11-1) to take that next step in his career.
The Toronto, Ontario, Canada-based welterweight recently signed a four-fight deal with the UFC and is expected to make his octagon debut four provinces west in Vancouver, British Columbia.
Patrick today shared news of the signing with "The Fight Show with Mauro Ranallo," and MMAjunkie.com has since learned from sources close to the promotion that while an opponent has not yet been determined, the Canadian is expected to compete on the as-yet-unannounced UFC 115 event.
A welterweight matchup between Martin Kampmann and Paulo Thiago is currently in the works for UFC 115.
Says MMAjunkie
I was really hoping for Thiago/Serra but this isn't a bad matchup either. Hard fight to call, too. I'll probably stay away.
The Thiago Alves -Jon Fitch fight will now be at UFC 115 Dana White just confirmed
Thoughts on Griffin/Dunham?
Dunham's looked good and his win over Escudero was impressive, but I don't think he's ready for Griffin. In my mind, Griffin is kind of a dark horse in the division. He's always floating right there around the top but no one thinks about him much. When it comes to title talk, everyone's always talking about Kenny and Maynard and Edgar, but Griffin's all up in that shit, too.
Its going to be Liddell-Franklin.Its official now:
Full card:
http://www.ufc.com/index.cfm?fa=eventDetail.Home&eid=2958
triathlete
04-12-2010, 07:04 PM
If the UFC were smart, they'd edit TUF to show why Ortiz is out on the last episode or so. Get more ppl to watch to find out what happened. Technically, if it happened on the show, NDA's prevent ppl from sharing why, right?
poopoo333
04-12-2010, 09:41 PM
Ok, so who are you guys picking? Chuck or Rich?
Probably Rich, but I'd love to see Chuck knock him out.
I'll be going with Chuck.This fight will be fought completely on their feet and Chuck is still better there.As long and he stays away from getting KO'd he wins imo
If the UFC were smart, they'd edit TUF to show why Ortiz is out on the last episode or so. Get more ppl to watch to find out what happened. Technically, if it happened on the show, NDA's prevent ppl from sharing why, right?
You're right .Statement from Tito Ortiz:
I haven't lied to anyone. I was told not to say "Anything"! Having a chance to be sued for $5 million was not a chance I wanted to take. So watch TUF 11 and see what happens. I was just doing what I was told, for once.
You're right .Statement from Tito Ortiz:
I haven't lied to anyone. I was told not to say "Anything"! Having a chance to be sued for $5 million was not a chance I wanted to take. So watch TUF 11 and see what happens. I was just doing what I was told, for once.
Real MMA fans knew that shit weeks ago anyway. . .
Finally.
I was wondering how long they were going to keep the facade up. It's not like you can be selling tickets while still lying about the main event.
You're right .Statement from Tito Ortiz:
I haven't lied to anyone. I was told not to say "Anything"! Having a chance to be sued for $5 million was not a chance I wanted to take. So watch TUF 11 and see what happens. I was just doing what I was told, for once.
Real MMA fans knew that shit weeks ago anyway. . .
You mean a month ago when I posted it here
Luke is the sole source of MMA news.
He also kicked me out of the driver's seat of the GSP bandwagon. When this happened, I'm not quite sure.
He also kicked me out of the driver's seat of the GSP bandwagon. When this happened, I'm not quite sure.
::lmao::
Real MMA fans knew that shit weeks ago anyway. . .
You mean a month ago when I posted it here
4 weeks = a month
-115/-115
I think Rich should be a slight favorite but I'm not sure that he will be. I figure they'll open even with low limits and take it from there.
-115/-115
I think Rich should be a slight favorite but I'm not sure that he will be. I figure they'll open even with low limits and take it from there.
Considering his past few performances, I'm honestly not sure that there's going to be that much faith in Chuck Liddell.
-115/-115
I think Rich should be a slight favorite but I'm not sure that he will be. I figure they'll open even with low limits and take it from there.
I agree .I was thinking Rich would be a slight fav
I think Rich should pick Chuck apart, but Rich has never been very durable, and Chuck could definitely put him out if he connects.
Mr. IWS
04-13-2010, 08:42 AM
The card looks pretty dam good.
I love Pat Barry against Cro Cop.
Thiago/Kampmann
Condit/Mcdonald
Rothwell/Yvel
all look good too.
Lines
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/255.png
ZY you were right on on the Liddell-Franklin fight ,good job
Mr. IWS
04-15-2010, 04:34 PM
Pat Barry FTW! Get Hype!
or get................
served
http://www.suckerpunchent.com/wp-01/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/BARRY-served1.jpg
Pat Barry FTW! Get Hype!
or get................
served
http://www.suckerpunchent.com/wp-01/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/BARRY-served1.jpg
What the heck?
::lmao::
The Pat Barry served series is great. Look it up Luke.
What do you guys think about that fight btw?
Mr. IWS
04-15-2010, 04:40 PM
Pat Barry, he got a bunch of pictures of him doing that to people. he has a shirt out too. Dude hits like a mack truck, I think he will KO Mirko.
Pat Barry, he got a bunch of pictures of him doing that to people. he has a shirt out too. Dude hits like a mack truck, I think he will KO Mirko.
You don't think he's the type of guy that Mirko will just eat up? He looks great against Antoni Hardonk sure.
Is Cro Cop gonna give a shit is my question. If he comes in looking like shit he'll probably lose.
Mr. IWS
04-15-2010, 04:55 PM
[quote="zY|"
Is Cro Cop gonna give a shit is my question.
Thats kind of my deal with Mirko. Even in the last fight with that Can, he didnt look like the Killer he used to be. the Pride Mirko would have tried to fuckin literally kill Perosh. His whole, "I didnt want to hurt him" BS tells me he doenst have the hunger and fire anymore.
Cro cop hasnt looked good since he beat Barnett back in Pride.
If anything, I think the guy is more taylor made for Barry. Barry has less than 0 ground game, and Mirko isnt going to take him down. I think he bails like he did against JDS.
Barry wins this one by showing up.
Wins by showing up, huh?
I'm not sure. This is a real hard one to call, in my opinion. I missed the good lines on Barry if I was going to bet him though.
poopoo333
04-15-2010, 09:26 PM
What do you guys think about the Danzig/Wiman fight?
Cro Cop doesn't have the will to do anything more than cash a check to move around and go through the motions for fifteen minutes or less anymore.
Thewiseman
04-15-2010, 10:22 PM
Took Barry, 12.25u to win 10u.
Took Barry, 12.25u to win 10u.
Damn man I could have got Barry at +160.Maybe I should have I could have already made money
Took Barry, 12.25u to win 10u.
If you're that confident, mind giving us your breakdown on it?
Thewiseman
04-15-2010, 11:20 PM
Cro cop just looked slow in his last fight, I just dont think he has it anymore. Barry is too explosive and I believe will KO him in opening minutes. Barry will be way too quick for him.
poopoo333
04-16-2010, 01:17 PM
What do you guys think about the Danzig/Wiman fight?
Nobody wants to discuss :(
What do you guys think about the Danzig/Wiman fight?
Nobody wants to discuss :(
Sorry havent really looked at it yet ::handshake::
What do you guys think about the Danzig/Wiman fight?
Nobody wants to discuss :(
Hopefully they're both cut after the fight.
Nobody wants to discuss :(
I'm curious about this one as well, but need to do some research on Wiman before contributing any useful thoughts.
One thing I have noticed is that Danzig seems to lose to any fighter that's not bottom tier. Or maybe he's just had a hard go of it having to face Guida, Neer, and Jim Miller back to back to back. He made pretty short work of Buccholz, after all.
poopoo333
04-21-2010, 10:11 PM
+130 for Chuck right now. Hopefully his line gets better.
+130 for Chuck right now. Hopefully his line gets better.
I think I'll end up on Chuck I like the way the line is moving
+130 for Chuck right now. Hopefully his line gets better.
I'll bet it if it hits +150.
One good thing for Chuck in this fight is that Franklin isn't known as a knockout guy so it's possible Chuck will have all three rounds to do his thing and catch Rich with something.
poopoo333
04-21-2010, 10:49 PM
From Chuck's wikipedia: "Occupation:A gay pornstar"
But I am watching TUF, Chuck looks extremely punch drunk.... like EXTREMELY.
+130 for Chuck right now. Hopefully his line gets better.
I'll bet it if it hits +150.
One good thing for Chuck in this fight is that Franklin isn't known as a knockout guy so it's possible Chuck will have all three rounds to do his thing and catch Rich with something.
If the fight goes to decision I think Chuck wins,if it doesnt that means Chuck got KO'd.
I personally think Franklin is a shot fighter also
Mr. IWS
04-22-2010, 08:44 AM
One good thing for Chuck in this fight is that Franklin isn't known as a knockout guy so it's possible Chuck will have all three rounds to do his thing and catch Rich with something.
I tend to agree. Save for the Quarry fight (off the top of my head) I cant think of anyone Ace blew up with one or two shots.
That said, I will never put money on Chuck either, so this one is a no bet for me. No matter what side Im on in a liddell fight, I am always wrong.
poopoo333
04-28-2010, 10:22 PM
How do you guys think the Yvel/Rothwell fight will go?
How do you guys think the Yvel/Rothwell fight will go?
Rothwell.
But I still need to watch some shit
How do you guys think the Yvel/Rothwell fight will go?
Rothwell beating Yvel's ass all over the cage.
poopoo333
04-28-2010, 10:39 PM
How do you guys think the Yvel/Rothwell fight will go?
Rothwell.
But I still need to watch some shit
That is the direction I was leaning towards as well. I have a feeling the odds will be close because of the Cain fight.
Edit: UFC 115 sucks for betting.
My problem with Rothwell/Yvel is that Yvel just has to hit him once. It's one of THOSE fights.
My problem with Rothwell/Yvel is that Yvel just has to hit him once. It's one of THOSE fights.
Ok Mike Hammersmith.
Yvel just really isn't that good. Plus Rothwell has a hell of a chin. Arlovski landed all kinds of shit on him for 3 rounds before he went out.
poopoo333
04-28-2010, 10:52 PM
My problem with Rothwell/Yvel is that Yvel just has to hit him once. It's one of THOSE fights.
Yeah... I thought of that. But it took 3 rounds for AA to get the TKO. Rothwell was still in the fight when Mazagatti stopped it...and he ate like 500 shots from Cain. Yvel is a wild striker, is not a whiz on the ground, and gassed at the staredown when he fought JDS.
I need to stop being lazy and research Danzig and Wiman.
I usually dont look at every fight on every card .Generally I take 3-4 fights that interest me that I already know something about both fighters and go from there
MMA_scientist
04-29-2010, 09:21 AM
Poopoo,
Danzig/Wiman will be very competitive. Wiman is tough and I think underrated. He has godo takedown defense, and good defense off his back. I think the standup will be about even, with a slight edge to Wiman. On the ground, Danzig is better, but I don't think so much better that he can do anything with it. It should be a close fight, and I have no idea what it will look like. If either guy is a big dog, they would have value, IMO.
I think Rothwell will beat Yvel. I think it is competive standing, but in the clinch and on the ground, Rothwell has the advantage. Yvel has nothing but a big punch. As SPX mentioned, Rothwell is very durable. Arlovski probably hit him with 200 shots. In 3 rounds, I think Rothwell will land a shot and finish it off.
I am not betting Chuck/Franklin. I look to their fights with Wanderlei as the measuring stick. I don't think either fighter will land anything definitive, but Franklin will probably land more shots. Chuck could use his takedowns to score points. It could go either way, but Chuck is probably the better bet with the current line... though it is not nearly enticing enough to make me want to bet it.
The Thiago Alves -Jon Fitch fight will now be at UFC 115 Dana White just confirmed
Alves-Fitch be pushed back to UFC 117 for some reason now
The Thiago Alves -Jon Fitch fight will now be at UFC 115 Dana White just confirmed
Alves-Fitch be pushed back to UFC 117 for some reason now
Saw that earlier.
This fight is cursed.
David Loiseau vs. Mario Miranda added
ManBoobKilla
05-06-2010, 02:39 PM
Just dropped 1 unit on pat barry @-125
ManBoobKilla
05-07-2010, 03:16 PM
I am excited for the Dunham vs griffin fight. I hope the bookies underestimate Dunham again. I think dunham will take this and im pretty sure he will be the dog. what do you guys think?
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 03:18 PM
I am excited for the Dunham vs griffin fight. I hope the bookies underestimate Dunham again. I think dunham will take this and im pretty sure he will be the dog. what do you guys think?
I think it will be a close fight. Slight edge to Dunham. It depends on Griffin's gameplan IMO. I think the line will be close though.
Dunham's not ready for Griffin just yet.
I think Griffin will win this one via experience and just all around awesomeness. Griffin is always sort of looked past in the division and for whatever reason is rarely in title talks, despite the fact that he's 14-2, with his only two losses coming in a razor thin decision to former champ Sherk and another pretty close decision to current champ Edgar.
ManBoobKilla
05-07-2010, 03:23 PM
I am excited for the Dunham vs griffin fight. I hope the bookies underestimate Dunham again. I think dunham will take this and im pretty sure he will be the dog. what do you guys think?
I think it will be a close fight. Slight edge to Dunham. It depends on Griffin's gameplan IMO. I think the line will be close though.
I feel that dunham has the striking and bjj advantage. plus he is scrappy as hell. He rolled around with aurelio for 3 rounds for gods sake. obviously griffin has the wrestling advantage but we have seen what dunham can do to better wrestlers off his back. (Escudero)
I was an apologist for Dunham in the Escudero fight and made some money on that one, but don't get carried away. I'm not psychic, but Griffin wins this fight, I believe. Griffin will not get subbed by Duham, and I don't necessarily think he'll get outstruck either.
Dunham's a prospect . . . Griffin's a vet. Sure, we've seen prospects beat vets, but I think Grif goes 15-2 after this one.
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 03:32 PM
Well, I don't think Aurelio ever got him down. He won that fight with his takedown defense and standup. I don't think he could survive with Aurelio for 15 minutes grappling. Dunham is a brown belt under Megaton.
Griffin was part of the Cesar Gracie team before going to Couture. He was a purple belt (I think) when he left. He would most likely be a high brown or even black belt by now had he stayed. His overall grappling is vastly superior to Escudero's.
I give a slight striking edge to Dunham. he has better power and reach, but Griffin has good leg kicks and can get inside.
And I think the wrestling is pretty close, slight edge to Griffin. Dunham was a wrestler convert too.
I think Griffin can win it if he commits to a high paced up and down fight. If he tries to do his Sean Sherk impression and box with Dunham, he is going to be eating jabs all night because he is a midget.
ManBoobKilla
05-07-2010, 03:33 PM
I was an apologist for Dunham in the Escudero fight and made some money on that one, but don't get carried away. I'm not psychic, but Griffin wins this fight, I believe. Griffin will not get subbed by Duham, and I don't necessarily think he'll get outstruck either.
Dunham's a prospect . . . Griffin's a vet. Sure, we've seen prospects beat vets, but I think Grif goes 15-2 after this one.
I think that Dunham has 3 ways to win dec, sub or tko. Griffin has one way most likely, which is Dec. Dunham becomes 11-0. I guess we will agree to disagree.
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 03:34 PM
^^
I think its really close, gun to head-- Dunham.
Scientist thinks Dunham beats Tyson Griffin but wouldn't bet on him to beat Escudero. . .
I think that Dunham has 3 ways to win dec, sub or tko. Griffin has one way most likely, which is Dec. Dunham becomes 11-0. I guess we will agree to disagree.
Grif just KOd Hermes Franca, so I would not underestimate his ability to finish. He can do it if he gets the opportunity.
With that said, yes, Griffin is a decision machine but he's very good at winning decisions.
One thing Dunham will NOT do is win via sub. Griffin's never been submitted in his life, despite the fact that he's been in there with lots of good BJJ guys. He's too savvy to fall for that shit.
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 04:05 PM
Scientist thinks Dunham beats Tyson Griffin but wouldn't bet on him to beat Escudero. . .
WTF are you talking about? I told you Dunham was extremely live against Efrain. I didn't bet on him because I hadn't seen enough of him yet. But if you look at our coversation right here: http://investwithsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=7052&start=45 You will see that I knew Efrain was in trouble and it almost looks like I sold YOU the Dunham play.
I am also not going to bet on him here. I think its a close fight that could go either way.
ManBoobKilla
05-07-2010, 04:06 PM
Well, I don't think Aurelio ever got him down. He won that fight with his takedown defense and standup. I don't think he could survive with Aurelio for 15 minutes grappling. Dunham is a brown belt under Megaton.
Griffin was part of the Cesar Gracie team before going to Couture. He was a purple belt (I think) when he left. He would most likely be a high brown or even black belt by now had he stayed. His overall grappling is vastly superior to Escudero's.
I give a slight striking edge to Dunham. he has better power and reach, but Griffin has good leg kicks and can get inside.
And I think the wrestling is pretty close, slight edge to Griffin. Dunham was a wrestler convert too.
I think Griffin can win it if he commits to a high paced up and down fight. If he tries to do his Sean Sherk impression and box with Dunham, he is going to be eating jabs all night because he is a midget.
Dunham is a black belt now. He got it before or after his last fight.
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 04:07 PM
Scientist thinks Dunham beats Tyson Griffin but wouldn't bet on him to beat Escudero. . .
Also, one fight changes a lot. Let us consider Sonnen pre and post Marquart.
ManBoobKilla
05-07-2010, 04:08 PM
I think that Dunham has 3 ways to win dec, sub or tko. Griffin has one way most likely, which is Dec. Dunham becomes 11-0. I guess we will agree to disagree.
Grif just KOd Hermes Franca, so I would not underestimate his ability to finish. He can do it if he gets the opportunity.
With that said, yes, Griffin is a decision machine but he's very good at winning decisions.
One thing Dunham will NOT do is win via sub. Griffin's never been submitted in his life, despite the fact that he's been in there with lots of good BJJ guys. He's too savvy to fall for that shit.
Yes he did finish franca but franca doesnt have good defense, he realize on his chin to get him through fights. I might be alone here but I just see dunham winning
WTF are you talking about? I told you Dunham was extremely live against Efrain. I didn't bet on him because I hadn't seen enough of him yet. But if you look at our coversation right here: http://investwithsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=7052&start=45 You will see that I knew Efrain was in trouble and it almost looks like I sold YOU the Dunham play.
I am also not going to bet on him here. I think its a close fight that could go either way.
I was just saying that Grif is quite far beyond Escudero at this point, that thinking Dunham will probably win--gun to your head--should've mean that he would handily defeat Efrain.
Also, one fight changes a lot. Let us consider Sonnen (R-Or) pre and post Marquart.
Fair enough.
I was mostly just fucking with you anyway.
Yes he did finish franca but franca doesnt have good defense, he realize on his chin to get him through fights. I might be alone here but I just see dunham winning
Sig bet?
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 04:20 PM
WTF are you talking about? I told you Dunham was extremely live against Efrain. I didn't bet on him because I hadn't seen enough of him yet. But if you look at our coversation right here: http://investwithsports.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?f=47&t=7052&start=45 You will see that I knew Efrain was in trouble and it almost looks like I sold YOU the Dunham play.
I am also not going to bet on him here. I think its a close fight that could go either way.
I was just saying that Grif is quite far beyond Escudero at this point, that thinking Dunham will probably win--gun to your head--should've mean that he would handily defeat Efrain.
I agree, Tyson is a level above Efrain. I read your first post like, "this dumbass thinks Dunham will beat Griffin, but not Efrain..."
I am just saying, I kind of knew the Efrain fight was close (and it was competitive) and since then we have a lot more info on Dunham. We have seen his takedown defense against an elite wrestler, we have seen his submission game, and we have seen his gnp defense. We didn't know any of that before the Efrain fight.
I am just saying, I kind of knew the Efrain fight was close (and it was competitive) and since then we have a lot more info on Dunham. We have seen his takedown defense against an elite wrestler, we have seen his submission game, and we have seen his gnp defense. We didn't know any of that before the Efrain fight.
I agree that one fight can add a lot to your perception of a fighter, especially a fight against someone who is known to be a good fighter in their own right.
I think Dunham shows a lot of promise, but this is a big step up for him. In fact, I don't think Griffin should even be fighting guys like Dunham. He should be fighting Florian, Maynard, or possibly rematching Guida in a fight that I actually felt like Guida won.
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 04:29 PM
^^
Its a crappy fight for Griffin, it always sucks for a guy that is near the top to have to fight an up and comer. But the desperately need some new challengers @ 155. They can't let Florian fight for the title for a 3rd time, which is what is going to end up happening.
I would love to see Griffin/Edgar II. That was one of my all time favorite fights.
They can't let Florian fight for the title for a 3rd time, which is what is going to end up happening.
I wouldn't mind seeing Florian get one more shot. He's always been oh-so-close.
I think that if he fights Penn with a different gameplan then there could be a different result. And he Edgar actually wins the rematch, then Florian stands a good chance of winning that fight, too.
I would love to see Griffin/Edgar II. That was one of my all time favorite fights.
Who do you think won?
ManBoobKilla
05-07-2010, 04:44 PM
Yes he did finish franca but franca doesnt have good defense, he realize on his chin to get him through fights. I might be alone here but I just see dunham winning
Sig bet?
Hmmm........ Ya ill do a sig bet. Im new at the whole forum thing doesnt that mean whoever wins gets to create a signature for the other person?
MMA_scientist
05-07-2010, 04:50 PM
I wouldn't mind seeing Florian get one more shot. He's always been oh-so-close.
I think that if he fights Penn with a different gameplan then there could be a different result. And he Edgar actually wins the rematch, then Florian stands a good chance of winning that fight, too.
I wouldn't mind him getting a shot against Edgar, but I dont need to see the Penn fight again. I think Florian would beat Edgar.
Who do you think won?
I think Edgar won, but it was close.
Hmmm........ Ya ill do a sig bet. Im new at the whole forum thing doesnt that mean whoever wins gets to create a signature for the other person?
Yeah.
I've actually never sig betted anyone before, but you're sold on Dunham, and I think Grif takes it, so why the hell not. I promise not to make you have a sig that says you like my balls in your face or anything. . .
I think Edgar won, but it was close.
How about Griffin/Guida?
ManBoobKilla
05-07-2010, 05:05 PM
Hmmm........ Ya ill do a sig bet. Im new at the whole forum thing doesnt that mean whoever wins gets to create a signature for the other person?
Yeah.
I've actually never sig betted anyone before, but you're sold on Dunham, and I think Grif takes it, so why the hell not. I promise not to make you have a sig that says you like my balls in your face or anything. . .
Lol!! alright fair enough.
poopoo333
05-21-2010, 12:19 PM
Ok stuff I am considering:
Small play on Liddell
Stay away from Barry/Cro Cop
Definitely be on Thiago @-200 or better
Definitely be on Rothwell @-225 or better
Stay away from Condit/Macdonald
Not sure about Griffin/Dunham...I will have to watch Dunham again
Danzig/Wiman...didn't even watch footage yet
I don't see anything I like for the rest of the undercard. Any thoughts? I am thinking Wilks over Sobotta... but only because it is probably a spoon fed match up for Wilks.. I don't know much about Sobotta at all.
MMA_scientist
05-21-2010, 12:28 PM
I think Edgar won, but it was close.
How about Griffin/Guida?
Guida won.
MMA_scientist
05-21-2010, 12:32 PM
Ok stuff I am considering:
Small play on Liddell
Stay away from Barry/Cro Cop
Definitely be on Thiago @-200 or better
Definitely be on Rothwell @-225 or better
Stay away from Condit/Macdonald
Not sure about Griffin/Dunham...I will have to watch Dunham again
Danzig/Wiman...didn't even watch footage yet
I don't see anything I like for the rest of the undercard. Any thoughts? I am thinking Wilks over Sobotta... but only because it is probably a spoon fed match up for Wilks.. I don't know much about Sobotta at all.
Tough card to cap, IMO
I like Rothwell as well. I think Fitch will beat Alves again though.
everythinig else is really close. Everyone is saying Barry is going to beat CroCop...
I will have to look at Pyle/Lennox, that could be worth a bet.
poopoo333
05-21-2010, 12:40 PM
Everyone else acting like Barry is going to kill CC doesn't sway my opinion... I think this fight will be a close fight. Fitch/Alves is @117 now, and I am leaning towards Fitch as well... it will be a year long lay off for Alves by fight time. I got Mike Pyle mixed up with Mike Pierce and was going to say I would definitely be taking Pyle, but I realized my mistake and now I have nothing.
poopoo333
05-30-2010, 03:24 PM
Everyone else acting like Barry is going to kill CC doesn't sway my opinion... I think this fight will be a close fight.
Ok, now I am starting to think otherwise. Barry is probably going to win.
Thewiseman
05-30-2010, 05:55 PM
Barry is going to send CC into retirement.
LOL I just read this:
Paulo Thiago is the only top 10 fighter on the entire ufc115 card.
Ok stuff I am considering:
Small play on Liddell
Stay away from Barry/Cro Cop
Definitely be on Thiago @-200 or better
Definitely be on Rothwell @-225 or better
Stay away from Condit/Macdonald
Not sure about Griffin/Dunham...I will have to watch Dunham again
Danzig/Wiman...didn't even watch footage yet
I don't see anything I like for the rest of the undercard. Any thoughts? I am thinking Wilks over Sobotta... but only because it is probably a spoon fed match up for Wilks.. I don't know much about Sobotta at all.
Smart money is on Condit, Dunham & Wiman. Liddell sounded very punch drunk on TUF. He's just like CroCop (may be even worst). THey're half the fighter they used to be. Franklin has never impressed me with his striking but he can hang in there with Liddell at this point. he's probably going to be the more active fighter n can also stay away from Liddell's heavy blows. I'd say he'll take a dec win.
Franklin is still better than he gets credit for. His only losses in his last 5 fights have come by razor thin decision to Dan Henderson(who looks like he hits harder than Chuck at this point), and Vitor Belfort who is still a force to be reckoned with standing. Alot of the stigma around Franklin at this point I think is all the catchweight stuff which isn't really his fault. Though he doesn't really have a "place" in either the 185 or 205lb division as of right now, but he should have no problem staying on the outside with Chuck. His pace is better than Chucks and his body kicks are going to be a factor I think.
just took Liddell +140 one unit, may add more later if the line keeps going higher.
1.0 to win 1.4
I've said I'll grab Liddell if he hits +150.
I may take him at less than that after I do some research. My main concern is him letting Franklin outpoint him for 3 rounds.
Just a FYI
Someone has the Carlos Condit - Rory MacDonald line up at matchbook right now
Condit -260
Macdonald +170
Not sure how accurate this maybe but it might give you an idea of what the line will be when it comes out
ManBoobKilla
06-07-2010, 12:13 PM
where do you think the dunham griffin lines will be?? +200 dunham?? Mark my words, Dunham will win this fight, even if its only by a SD. I am also intersted in the Louisseu vs Miranda fight. Hoping they undervalue miranda because of his last fight. I will be all over miranda if he is under -200
Mark my words, Dunham will win this fight, even if its only by a SD.
We still have a sig bet.
Remember that, son.
ManBoobKilla
06-07-2010, 12:24 PM
Mark my words, Dunham will win this fight, even if its only by a SD.
We still have a sig bet.
Remember that, son.
Thats right we do!! You getting a little nervous??? Dunham is the next thing, watch out griffin
Thats right we do!! You getting a little nervous??? Dunham is the next thing, watch out griffin
You're going to have a 30-day sig that says:
"Matt Serra is the very definition of a superior MMA fighter. He is an absolute specimen and GSP is ducking him for the rubber match. Can't blame GSP, though. It's never fun to lose."
MMA_scientist
06-07-2010, 01:24 PM
Pretty sure my only bet is going to be Paulo Thiago...
unless the lines are just insane. I now think CC is going to win.
ManBoobKilla
06-07-2010, 01:32 PM
Thats right we do!! You getting a little nervous??? Dunham is the next thing, watch out griffin
You're going to have a 30-day sig that says:
"Matt Serra is the very definition of a superior MMA fighter. He is an absolute specimen and GSP is ducking him for the rubber match. Can't blame GSP, though. It's never fun to lose."
HAHA!!! I havent thought of one for you yet. Maybe something with strange brew in it or how I am your master
HAHA!!! I havent thought of one for you yet. Maybe something with strange brew in it or how I am your master
Think hard. Because IF I lose--and that's a big if, because I don't plan on losing--then you might as well make it worth it.
poopoo333
06-07-2010, 02:07 PM
It would be nice if we could get more then 3 fucking lines for 115!
Thewiseman
06-07-2010, 02:22 PM
Pretty sure my only bet is going to be Paulo Thiago...
unless the lines are just insane. I now think CC is going to win.
Why do you think CC is going to win?
MMA_scientist
06-07-2010, 02:31 PM
Pretty sure my only bet is going to be Paulo Thiago...
unless the lines are just insane. I now think CC is going to win.
Why do you think CC is going to win?
Saw a SD thread on Barry... which sparked me to go out an research him and CC a little.
Barry really doesn't have an y good kickboxing wins... While CC has some very credible wins. Barry is 5'11, Cro Cop has never been outstruck by a shorter man. JDS and Kongo outstruck him, but they are both taller and have reach advantages. And they are both physically stronger and bigger than CC.
Barry has 6 fights, and I just don't think he is going to have enough for crocop. Everyone is talking about his demise, but his only bad loss is Kongo, and that is not horrible. There is no shame in being beaten by Gonzaga or JDS who are both top 10 HWs.
I just think Barry is a little overhyped, and CC's demise is a little exaggerated. Also, Mirko might surprise us and decide to grapple a little.
poopoo333
06-07-2010, 02:47 PM
I am 50/50 on CC/Barry.
I saw the same thread on SD that Scientist is talking about, and they are some good points. Apparently CC is all healed up from his injuries now as well. I watched JDS/CC yesterday, and JDS is a good boxer and he used his speed and size and walked CC down to box him against the cage.... CC wasn't doing terrible in that fight, he landed straight lefts at will and actually busted JDS up a little. JDS has never been out of the 1st round...except against CC. I see Barry winning if he can move in and out and land some leg kicks, and use his hand speed and light CC up against the fence after closing the distance. I think if CC gets in trouble he will clinch up and get the takedown. I think CC has value for sure.
poopoo333
06-07-2010, 03:03 PM
Oh, I forgot to mention, I think CC/Barry is going to go to a decision.
Thewiseman
06-07-2010, 03:12 PM
Oh, I forgot to mention, I think CC/Barry is going to go to a decision.
Possible for sure, but unlikely. I think Barry finishes. The fight going the distance is +450 on dimes.
MMA_scientist
06-07-2010, 03:27 PM
Oh, I forgot to mention, I think CC/Barry is going to go to a decision.
Possible for sure, but unlikely. I think Barry finishes. The fight going the distance is +450 on dimes.
Really. That is solid. I don't do props, but I may do that one. I think there is better than 50% this goes to the cards.
Oh, I forgot to mention, I think CC/Barry is going to go to a decision.
Possible for sure, but unlikely. I think Barry finishes. The fight going the distance is +450 on dimes.
I think it goes to a decision too unless CC stops Barry but I suck at props
Oh, I forgot to mention, I think CC/Barry is going to go to a decision.
Possible for sure, but unlikely. I think Barry finishes. The fight going the distance is +450 on dimes.
I think it goes to a decision too unless CC stops Barry but I suck at props
Saw a SD thread on Barry... which sparked me to go out an research him and CC a little.
Barry really doesn't have an y good kickboxing wins... While CC has some very credible wins. Barry is 5'11, Cro Cop has never been outstruck by a shorter man. JDS and Kongo outstruck him, but they are both taller and have reach advantages. And they are both physically stronger and bigger than CC.
Barry has 6 fights, and I just don't think he is going to have enough for crocop. Everyone is talking about his demise, but his only bad loss is Kongo, and that is not horrible. There is no shame in being beaten by Gonzaga or JDS who are both top 10 HWs.
I just think Barry is a little overhyped, and CC's demise is a little exaggerated. Also, Mirko might surprise us and decide to grapple a little.
I agree .I havent really liked Barry since the line came out. Barry maybe faster but if CC takes him down (which he should) then its a mismatch on the mat.
IMO the CC-JDS fight didnt look bad. Cro Cop fought the best fight against JDS that anyone has in the UFC.
Now if CC just stands and trades he'll probably lose on points
Johnny Unreliable
06-07-2010, 03:45 PM
I'm really torn over Chuck v Franklin.
Chuck has a big power edge as well as a better chin. Franklin has speed and mixes up his striking better.
Originally I thought due to Franklins lack of power and suspect chin Chuck would have 3 rounds to catch him with something for the KO. But after rewatching the Jardine fight (another fighter with no chin) chuck got outpointed mostly due to effective leg kicks. I'm wondering if Franklin can do the same but I'm not sure.
MMA_scientist
06-07-2010, 03:46 PM
Oh, I forgot to mention, I think CC/Barry is going to go to a decision.
Possible for sure, but unlikely. I think Barry finishes. The fight going the distance is +450 on dimes.
I think it goes to a decision too unless CC stops Barry but I suck at props
i will be all over +450. I am considering funding 5dimes just to make that prop bet. If it opens on BM @ +200 or more, I will probably do it. I don't think I have ever made a prop bet.
MMA_scientist
06-07-2010, 03:50 PM
I'm really torn over Chuck v Franklin.
Chuck has a big power edge as well as a better chin. Franklin has speed and mixes up his striking better.
Originally I thought due to Franklins lack of power and suspect chin Chuck would have 3 rounds to catch him with something for the KO. But after rewatching the Jardine fight (another fighter with no chin) chuck got outpointed mostly due to effective leg kicks. I'm wondering if Franklin can do the same but I'm not sure.
that's another one I am not betting... I am pretty torn here too. I think it is possible that Chuck KO's him, or for Rich to just outwork Chuck. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Chuck throw in some takedowns. He used the takedown against Wandy. Rich has a decent defensive ground game but he is not a submission threat to Chuck. Chuck wants to win more than he wants a KO. He has been training his jj a lot, or so I have heard. He has also been talking about the reason for his losses being that he got predictable. So I see some takedowns. I doubt he can hold Rich down, but it would help set up his strikes and make Rich think twice about that nasty body kick he throws.
Johnny Unreliable
06-07-2010, 04:14 PM
[quote="Johnny Unreliable":39ty6syo]I'm really torn over Chuck v Franklin.
Chuck has a big power edge as well as a better chin. Franklin has speed and mixes up his striking better.
Originally I thought due to Franklins lack of power and suspect chin Chuck would have 3 rounds to catch him with something for the KO. But after rewatching the Jardine fight (another fighter with no chin) chuck got outpointed mostly due to effective leg kicks. I'm wondering if Franklin can do the same but I'm not sure.
that's another one I am not betting... I am pretty torn here too. I think it is possible that Chuck KO's him, or for Rich to just outwork Chuck. But I wouldn't be surprised to see Chuck throw in some takedowns. He used the takedown against Wandy. Rich has a decent defensive ground game but he is not a submission threat to Chuck. Chuck wants to win more than he wants a KO. He has been training his jj a lot, or so I have heard. He has also been talking about the reason for his losses being that he got predictable. So I see some takedowns. I doubt he can hold Rich down, but it would help set up his strikes and make Rich think twice about that nasty body kick he throws.[/quote:39ty6syo]
Good points as always Scientist. Just rewatched the shogun fight and chuck looked slow with a capital S. If that Chuck shows up I think Franklin has a good chance. But I'm staying away from this one....
Thewiseman
06-07-2010, 04:38 PM
+450 may have value, but I think Barry is gonna knock CC out. I may place a micro bet on it, but its probably money down the drain.
edman5555
06-07-2010, 04:51 PM
I totally agree on cro cop. His leg is finally better after that Gonzaga fight and he is training with good kickboxers in Holland. Two big differences when you look at now and the past couple of years. I notice that Barry never beat any good kickboxers as well. Throw in the fact that cro cop is much more experienced all around and has a very good amateur boxing record(barry beat hardonk with punches basically), not to mention that he is an underdog..This is a great bet. I'm all over it.
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 10:22 AM
I feel Barry will absolutely destroy Cro Cop. Barry is too ferocious and cro cop doesnt have the killer instinct anymore. Look at the anthony perosh fight. He could have finished him in the first 3 minutes if he was more aggessive but, he didnt and it took him 3 rounds to finish a c level fighter. I dont know if barry will stop cro cop but it will be a beating IMO
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 12:43 PM
I am going to bet purely for value this card except for maybe 1-2 fights. Value bets I am considering when all the prop odds and stuff are up:
Wiman by decision
Griffin/Dunham goes to decision
Wiman/Danzig goes to decision
Cro Cop/Barry goes to decision
Rory Macdonald as a dog
Pyle by submission
LOL
Paulo Thiago just opened at -475
WTF is this shit? Anyone with a 5dimes account, Kampmann is +325.
Mr. IWS
06-08-2010, 02:35 PM
LOL
Paulo Thiago just opened at -475
WTF is this shit? Anyone with a 5dimes account, Kampmann is +325.
Thats got Arb written all over it.
[quote="zY|":2g0fovkz]LOL
Paulo Thiago just opened at -475
WTF is this shit? Anyone with a 5dimes account, Kampmann is +325.
Thats got Arb written all over it.[/quote:2g0fovkz]
ROFL
It's already down to -170!
I wish I had a funded 5dimes when that shit hit.
It's likely though that they just changed it real quick.
I was wrong. Still going down. -140
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 02:52 PM
1U on condit at +130 and going to lay about 3u on paulo when he stops dropping. -140 for paulo is crazy good. I hope dunham goes up to
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 02:53 PM
Paulo at -110 now!!! is there something I dont know??
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 02:57 PM
what about barry winning a decision at +725???
MMA_scientist
06-08-2010, 03:03 PM
That had to be a mistake. -475 is just stupid.
I think he will settle in around -200. I like him to about -170
I am going to make a prop bet or 2 on this card
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 03:05 PM
I got paulo at -135 for 3u. Im watching him on 5 dimes and he keeps going from -145 to -215. bouncying back and forth pretty much everytime I refresh it
MMA_scientist
06-08-2010, 03:09 PM
I wish BM would open already...
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 03:20 PM
make that +888 for barry winning a decision
Mr. IWS
06-08-2010, 03:24 PM
make that +888 for barry winning a decision
I would throw 10 bucks on that.
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 03:28 PM
make that +888 for barry winning a decision
I would throw 10 bucks on that.
Ya I think I will to. not ten maybe 5. It keeps climbing so ill see where it stops.
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 03:43 PM
So far:
0.5u on Chuck @+125
0.25u on Barry by decision @+888
0.25u on Wiman by decision @+210
3u on Thiago @-150
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 03:51 PM
So far:
0.5u on Chuck @+125
0.25u on Barry by decision @+888
0.25u on Wiman by decision @+210
3u on Thiago @-150
Add 0.1u on Chuck winning decision, Barry winning decision, Wiman winning decision, Thiago, and Rothwell. 0.1u to win 49.48u.
MMA_scientist
06-08-2010, 04:06 PM
My posts keep disappearing.
I would be ALL over Barry by decision @ +888. I think that is about 40% to happen.
For now 5u on Thiago @ -160
I will probably do an over prop on cro cop/barry and either griffin/Dunham or wiman/danzig.
With so many close lines, I think there will be a lot of decisions
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 04:18 PM
Barry decision +1088 now lol
Paulo at -110 now!!! is there something I dont know??
just the people at 5dimes have no idea what they are doing
LOL
Paulo Thiago just opened at -475
WTF is this shit? Anyone with a 5dimes account, Kampmann is +325.
My guess is both sides would get cancelled on those odds
MMA_scientist
06-08-2010, 04:26 PM
Barry decision +1088 now lol
Take it. I will paypal you $20... and you can give me +800 odds.
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 04:55 PM
Barry decision +1088 now lol
Take it. I will paypal you $20... and you can give me +800 odds.
I would but I dont have paypal. sorry man. You shold just open a 5dimes account. 5dimes is a really funb and good book. tons of prop bets
MMA_scientist
06-08-2010, 05:14 PM
Barry decision +1088 now lol
Take it. I will paypal you $20... and you can give me +800 odds.
I would but I dont have paypal. sorry man. You shold just open a 5dimes account. 5dimes is a really funb and good book. tons of prop bets
I have a 5dimes... just no money in it. I rarely use it, so I took all the money out. I agree it is godo book though. I don't do parlays or props though, so it didn't have much use for me.
are they giving odds on Danzig/Wiman over and griffin/Dunham over?
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 05:21 PM
Take it. I will paypal you $20... and you can give me +800 odds.[/quote]
I would but I dont have paypal. sorry man. You shold just open a 5dimes account. 5dimes is a really funb and good book. tons of prop bets[/quote]
I have a 5dimes... just no money in it. I rarely use it, so I took all the money out. I agree it is godo book though. I don't do parlays or props though, so it didn't have much use for me.
are they giving odds on Danzig/Wiman over and griffin/Dunham over?[/quote]
not dunham and griffin yet but the wiman danzig by decision is -170 lol
Thewiseman
06-08-2010, 07:01 PM
Love the odds on Thiago. I took him at -135, -170, and -180.
Thiago 13.3u to win 8u
Condit 2u to win 2.6u
Griffin 3.6u to win 2u
Liddell is in shape for sure. No more beer gut or love handles
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/rw6sy9_medium.jpg
Mr. IWS
06-08-2010, 07:36 PM
I see Virgil from the WWF trains at the Pit now too huh? I guess Ted Debiasse dont pay good no more. (next to Hackleman)
I see Virgil from the WWF trains at the Pit now too huh? I guess Ted Debiasse dont pay good no more. (next to Hackleman)
What'choo talkin' 'bout, Willis?
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 09:50 PM
Without the freak injuries, I honestly think Wiman/Danzig to go the distance is worth a 5u bet.
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 10:01 PM
Without the freak injuries, I honestly think Wiman/Danzig to go the distance is worth a 5u bet.
I kinda agree with you lol.
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 10:17 PM
Also Griffin/Dunham will go to a decision. I wonder how that line will be.
MMA_scientist
06-08-2010, 10:20 PM
^^ you can't account for EVERY contingency (re: freak injury). Even @ -170, I think I am still going to bet it. I really don't see how either one of them finishes that fight. Wiman has never been subbed. Danzig has been subbed, but he is the better grappler here. Neither of them really has a lot fo KO power.
MMA_scientist
06-08-2010, 10:21 PM
And Dunham/Griffin is going to a decision. That is happening.
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 10:25 PM
1.7u to win 1u on Wiman/Danzig going the distance
By the way guys, that 0.1u parlay I posted...I actually think that has a chance. Like 20%.
I think Dunham has great value @+205. But it is hard rooting against Tyson. I will just make the decision prop bet when it comes out.
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 11:33 PM
wow!!! Mario Miranda at -115 on bookmaker. I hope he stays like that for 5 dimes. Ill put 5u on him
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 11:35 PM
wow!!! Mario Miranda at -115 on bookmaker. I hope he stays like that for 5 dimes. Ill put 5u on him
Pyle is -115 as well. If I could get Pyle @-115, I would probably make a 5u bet.
ManBoobKilla
06-08-2010, 11:38 PM
Ya I am really liking this card for betting!!! dunham +200, I got Thiago at -135, Barry, Miranda, pyle, and really good prop bets
poopoo333
06-08-2010, 11:43 PM
Hmm... I am thinking Rothwell is a good bet. Yvel has lost to middleweights (Jeremy Horn and Hendo). I haven't seen those fights, but based on those names, Yvel was outgrappled. I think a 265 lb Rothwell will be able to avoid Yvel's power and win a decision. Anybody agree/disagree?
I have 2 units on Ben. Gilbert is just too damn one dimensional. And i think Ben knows he NEEDS this win. No need to screw around and needlessly trade with Gilbert.
I have 2 units on Ben. Gilbert is just too damn one dimensional. And i think Ben knows he NEEDS this win. No need to screw around and needlessly trade with Gilbert.
Kind of my thoughts too ::handshake::
Thewiseman
06-09-2010, 12:27 AM
So far,
Funch .2u to win .5u
Griffin 3.6u to win 2u
Condit 2u to win 2.6u
Thiago 13.3U to win 8U
Barry 17.64u to win 14u
Thewiseman
06-09-2010, 12:32 AM
Probably gonna make a small play on Sobotta, very small. If he makes it to +300.
poopoo333
06-09-2010, 12:53 AM
So far,
Funch .2u to win .5u
Griffin 3.6u to win 2u
Condit 2u to win 2.6u
Thiago 13.3U to win 8U
Barry 17.64u to win 14u
You are going to have a good night if Thiago and Barry both win.
Another Liddell picture .Looks the best I've seen him in a long time
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/x2_1918b6d.jpg
Mr. IWS
06-09-2010, 08:50 AM
Another Liddell picture .Looks the best I've seen him in a long time
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/x2_1918b6d.jpg
I have never seen him look like that. He put in some serious work for this one.
MMA_scientist
06-09-2010, 08:51 AM
Add Liddell to my streroids list.
I would be all over Rothwell BUT I can't really recall him going for a takedown right away. He always trades. Rothwell is legitimate. He was top 10 at one point. I really think he will win, but I am scared to bet it because I fear all of his Duke Roufus training (that's where he trains now, he dumped MFS) is going to make him want to show off his kickboxing. He still might win a striking match, but its at least close there.
poopoo333
06-09-2010, 09:14 AM
I would be all over Rothwell BUT I can't really recall him going for a takedown right away. He always trades. Rothwell is legitimate. He was top 10 at one point. I really think he will win, but I am scared to bet it because I fear all of his Duke Roufus training (that's where he trains now, he dumped MFS) is going to make him want to show off his kickboxing. He still might win a striking match, but its at least close there.
Good point. What do you think about the Pyle/Lennox fight. I thought Pyle would be the favorite for sure but he is @+105. Am I missing something?
Mr. IWS
06-09-2010, 10:42 AM
On Cro Cop / Barry:
I really dont think you can compare resume's anymore. Cro Cop is just not the same guy, not by a long shot IMO. I think the guy has checked out for a couple years now. For me, its not that Barry is that much better, I just think Cro Cop has looked like shit for years, and all the talk about him being healthy finally, is the same shit he has been saying since before he got wrecked by Overeem.
ManBoobKilla
06-09-2010, 11:04 AM
I would be all over Rothwell BUT I can't really recall him going for a takedown right away. He always trades. Rothwell is legitimate. He was top 10 at one point. I really think he will win, but I am scared to bet it because I fear all of his Duke Roufus training (that's where he trains now, he dumped MFS) is going to make him want to show off his kickboxing. He still might win a striking match, but its at least close there.
Good point. What do you think about the Pyle/Lennox fight. I thought Pyle would be the favorite for sure but he is @+105. Am I missing something?
I think that everyone see's lennox as this strong as an ox terminator that cant be submitted. I feel Pyle has better technical boxing and will submit lennox eventually
MMA_scientist
06-09-2010, 01:11 PM
I would be all over Rothwell BUT I can't really recall him going for a takedown right away. He always trades. Rothwell is legitimate. He was top 10 at one point. I really think he will win, but I am scared to bet it because I fear all of his Duke Roufus training (that's where he trains now, he dumped MFS) is going to make him want to show off his kickboxing. He still might win a striking match, but its at least close there.
Good point. What do you think about the Pyle/Lennox fight. I thought Pyle would be the favorite for sure but he is @+105. Am I missing something?
I think that everyone see's lennox as this strong as an ox terminator that cant be submitted. I feel Pyle has better technical boxing and will submit lennox eventually
Yeah, I think that is the popular thinking on Lennox. Pyle has a few tricks up his sleeve, but I personally do not think his grappling is all around that great. He definitely doesnt have the kind of next level grappling you need if you are going to rely on your submission skills alone. If he can't catch him in a triangle, he loses. I think Lennox will take a close decision.
ManBoobKilla
06-09-2010, 01:39 PM
My UFC 115 bets:
Barry- 1U @ -125
Barry and Efrain- .6U @ +105
Barry and Thiago- 1.1U @ +150
Barry by decision- .1U @ +888
Barry/CroCop and Chuck/Rich go distance- .1U @ +1000
Thiago- 1U @ -135
Thiago and Condit- .2U @ +270
Dunham- 1U @ +200
Franklin dec. Wiman dec. and Thiago- .1U @ +1400
Wiman//Danzig go Dist. Thiago, Wilks, Miranda- .15U @ +400
WAR BARRY AND THIAGO!!!!
Thewiseman
06-09-2010, 01:48 PM
So far,
Funch .2u to win .5u
Griffin 3.6u to win 2u
Condit 2u to win 2.6u
Thiago 13.3U to win 8U
Barry 17.64u to win 14u
Forgot I had Danzig/Wiman going the distance. 1.5u to win 1u.
Another Liddell picture .Looks the best I've seen him in a long time
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/x2_1918b6d.jpg
I have never seen him look like that. He put in some serious work for this one.
I seen what kind of shape he was in before putting my bet in a week ago. I couldnt bet Liddell until seeing if he was serious about his training this time. Now he has no excuses if he loses
Herb Dean will referee Saturday’s night main event between former UFC light heavyweight champion Chuck Liddell and former UFC middleweight champion Rich Franklin in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The three judges assigned to the bout are Sal D’Amato of Wisconsin, Nelson “Doc” Hamilton of California and Bill Mahood of British Columbia
::handshake::
poopoo333
06-09-2010, 03:55 PM
Final UFC 115 Plays unless I see another prop bet I like that isn't released yet:
1.5u to win 1u on Rothwell
1.7u to win 1u on Danzig/Wiman going distance
3u to win 2u on Thiago
0.25u to win a little over 0.5u on Wiman winning decision
0.25u to win 2.22u on Barry via decision
0.1u to win 49.48u on Liddel by decision, Barry by decision, Wiman by decision, Thiago, Rothwell
0.1u to win 92.85u on Curran, Pyle, Condit, Rothwell, Thiago, Wiman by decision, Barry by decision, Franklin/Chuck going the distance
Thewiseman
06-09-2010, 06:29 PM
So far,
Funch .2u to win .5u
Griffin 3.6u to win 2u
Condit 2u to win 2.6u
Thiago 13.3U to win 8U
Barry 17.64u to win 14u
Forgot I had Danzig/Wiman going the distance. 1.5u to win 1u.
Now I have Funch .5u to win 1.3u
poopoo333
06-10-2010, 08:35 AM
I have 3u on Thiago @-150, Kampmann is @+190. I can arb right now can't I?
MMA_scientist
06-10-2010, 09:17 AM
^^ you could indeed.
I have 3u on Thiago @-150, Kampmann is @+190. I can arb right now can't I?
Yes you can .If you have 3 units on Thiago at -150 (300 to win 200) you can bet 1.58 units on Kampmann (158 to win 300) and you'd have a free 42 dollar bet on Thiago.
The best way to arb imo is hit a opening line as soon as it opens
Just a FYI the line on Franklin is coming down at matchbook.Its went from
-145 to -132. So if you want to bet Liddell I'd say take it now ,if you're betting Franklin you might want to wait
Thewiseman
06-10-2010, 02:48 PM
So far,
Funch .2u to win .5u
Griffin 3.6u to win 2u
Condit 2u to win 2.6u
Thiago 13.3U to win 8U
Barry 17.64u to win 14u
Forgot I had Danzig/Wiman going the distance. 1.5u to win 1u.
Now I have Funch .5u to win 1.3u
Wiman by dec .19u to win .5u
Franklin by dec .16u to win .5u
poopoo333
06-10-2010, 03:10 PM
Final UFC 115 Plays unless I see another prop bet I like that isn't released yet:
1.5u to win 1u on Rothwell
1.7u to win 1u on Danzig/Wiman going distance
3u to win 2u on Thiago
0.25u to win a little over 0.5u on Wiman winning decision
0.25u to win 2.22u on Barry via decision
0.1u to win 49.48u on Liddel by decision, Barry by decision, Wiman by decision, Thiago, Rothwell
0.1u to win 92.85u on Curran, Pyle, Condit, Rothwell, Thiago, Wiman by decision, Barry by decision, Franklin/Chuck going the distance
0.1u on Rothwell/Yvel going the distance @+450
Thewiseman
06-10-2010, 04:09 PM
Added
Condit/Macdonald goes the distance .57u to win 2u
Dunham/Griffin goes the distance 2u to win 2u
Thewiseman
06-10-2010, 04:13 PM
The wiseman specials,
Lennox
Funch
Miranda
Wiman/Danzig goes the distance
Griffin/Dunham goes the distance
Condit/Macdonald goes the distance
Rothwell
Thiago
Barry ITD
Franklin by dec
.02u to win 43.47u
Wiman/Danzig goes the distance
Duhnam/Griffin goes the distance
Condit/Macdonald goes the distance
Rothwell
Thiago
Barry ITD
Franklin dec
.1u to win 23.78u
The wiseman specials,
Lennox
Funch
Miranda
Wiman/Danzig goes the distance
Griffin/Dunham goes the distance
Condit/Macdonald goes the distance
Rothwell
Thiago
Barry ITD
Franklin by dec
.02u to win 43.47u
Wiman/Danzig goes the distance
Duhnam/Griffin goes the distance
Condit/Macdonald goes the distance
Rothwell
Thiago
Barry ITD
Franklin dec
.1u to win 23.78u
::haptime::
I cant wait till you hit one of these ::handshake::
One last one I just got
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/x2_18adac6.jpg
Chuck looks great.
He's getting knocked out.
Chuck looks great.
He's getting knocked out.
Still have decided yet?
FYI anyone that cares Cro Cop has some kind of big scratch on his forehead
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/113660986.jpg
He said it's from the ladies.
He's fine. They're not.
He said it's from the ladies.
He's fine. They're not.
He didnt say that ::lmao::
He said it's from the ladies.
He's fine. They're not.
He didnt say that ::lmao::
rofl, apparently he actually did.
http://twitter.com/ufc/status/15873659403
rofl, apparently he actually did.
http://twitter.com/ufc/status/15873659403
LMAO ::lmao::
Find me the clip I got to hear this
poopoo333
06-10-2010, 09:34 PM
Final UFC 115 Plays unless I see another prop bet I like that isn't released yet:
1.5u to win 1u on Rothwell
1.7u to win 1u on Danzig/Wiman going distance
3u to win 2u on Thiago
0.25u to win a little over 0.5u on Wiman winning decision
0.25u to win 2.22u on Barry via decision
0.1u to win 49.48u on Liddel by decision, Barry by decision, Wiman by decision, Thiago, Rothwell
0.1u to win 92.85u on Curran, Pyle, Condit, Rothwell, Thiago, Wiman by decision, Barry by decision, Franklin/Chuck going the distance
0.1u on Rothwell/Yvel going the distance @+450
1.45u on Griffin/Dunham going the distance to win 1u
1u on on Macdonald/Condit going the distance to win 2.6u
rofl, apparently he actually did.
http://twitter.com/ufc/status/15873659403
LMAO ::lmao::
Find me the clip I got to hear this
Front page of UFC.com.
'The comedy stylings of Mirko Cro Cop and Pat Barry'
Thewiseman
06-10-2010, 10:53 PM
Final UFC 115 Plays unless I see another prop bet I like that isn't released yet:
1.5u to win 1u on Rothwell
1.7u to win 1u on Danzig/Wiman going distance
3u to win 2u on Thiago
0.25u to win a little over 0.5u on Wiman winning decision
0.25u to win 2.22u on Barry via decision
0.1u to win 49.48u on Liddel by decision, Barry by decision, Wiman by decision, Thiago, Rothwell
0.1u to win 92.85u on Curran, Pyle, Condit, Rothwell, Thiago, Wiman by decision, Barry by decision, Franklin/Chuck going the distance
0.1u on Rothwell/Yvel going the distance @+450
1.45u on Griffin/Dunham going the distance to win 1u
1u on on Macdonald/Condit going the distance to win 2.6u
That got hit quick. I got Griffin/Dunham @ even and Condit/Mac @+350
poopoo333
06-10-2010, 10:56 PM
I am pretty sure they both will win as well.
Pat Barry quotes from the conference:
All the childhood dreams of being a ninja during halloween have come true
::lmao::
little after 26:00 mark of the conference
i am a buffoon
at the 31:50 mark
I think we may have finally found a guy with less killer instinct than Cro Cop these days. Certainly makes things interesting...
Barry will probably knock Cro Cop down with a punch and be like "oh shit, sorry man, here get up and lets have a redo"
poopoo333
06-11-2010, 12:37 AM
I think we may have finally found a guy with less killer instinct than Cro Cop these days. Certainly makes things interesting...
Good. Hopefully they don't try to KO each other and Barry wins a decision.
He said it's from the ladies.
He's fine. They're not.
LOL the dumb SOB actually did say this ::lmao::
He said
he had a late training in his room and a few ladies made scratches
Then when they asked if he was ok he said:
I'm ok they're not
at the 38:20 mark of the conference
and the sad part is Cro Cop sounded serious
He said it's from the ladies.
He's fine. They're not.
LOL the dumb SOB actually did say this ::lmao::
at the 38:20 mark of the conference
and the sad part is Cro Cop sounded serious
LOL you can watch the highlights of their quotes on the front page like I said.
Since you watched the whole thing though, anything else good in the press conference?
Mr. IWS
06-11-2010, 08:25 AM
I think we may have finally found a guy with less killer instinct than Cro Cop these days. Certainly makes things interesting...
Barry will probably knock Cro Cop down with a punch and be like "oh shit, sorry man, here get up and lets have a redo"
LOL, it could be like one of those TKD clips X was posting.
Mr. IWS
06-11-2010, 08:30 AM
One last one I just got
http://i161.photobucket.com/albums/t233/luke1899/x2_18adac6.jpg
they spelled studio wrong.
I'd just like to say that this card kind of sucks for betting.
As it stands, I will probably be loading up on underdogs and hoping for the best. The problem is that I don't really like most of the dogs' chances to win. But I don't like the lines for the favorites, either.
So it will have to be dogs or nothing.
poopoo333
06-11-2010, 11:45 AM
SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.
Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?
SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.
Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?
If you're confident in Thiago, you can put 1.5u on Kampmann and freeroll Thiago. So you win .5u if Thiago wins but if he loses then you push. Or you could put something like 1.7u on Kampmann and you'll win .3u or .4u no matter what.
MMA_scientist
06-11-2010, 12:25 PM
SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.
Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?
There is no "most profitable" way to arb it.
You can eliminate risk and bet on Thiago for a smaller more likely win. You can eliminate risk and bet on Kampmann for a bigger less likely win. Or you can split the difference and guarantee a small profit.
All options have the same expected value though. Personally, when I arb, which is rare, I like to take a free bet on the underdog, but still guarantee a small win should the favorite win.
Say you have 100 on Thiago to win $66.66 (@ -150). You can put 66.66 on Kampmann to give you a $133 win, a net profit of $33. This is a free bet on Kampmann.
Or you can put $50 on Kampann. A win will get you your $100 back on Thiago. BUt if Thiago wins, you win $66, and net profit overall of $16. This is a free bet on Thiago.
Or you can put $55 on Kampmann. A Kampmann win will give you $110, a net profit of $10. If Thiago wins you get $66.66 (minus 55), a net profit of $11.66. This is splitting the difference and guarnteeing a profit.
I like to go with a bet of like $61 on Kampman. If he wins, I guarantee a good payday, ($22), but if he loses I still get SOMETHING for my trouble, in this case $5.
poopoo333
06-11-2010, 12:27 PM
Thanks, still deciding on it. I may as well just stick with my bet on Paulo, I was pretty confident in it.
MMA_scientist
06-11-2010, 12:42 PM
Thanks, still deciding on it. I may as well just stick with my bet on Paulo, I was pretty confident in it.
I personally don't arb because my bankroll is too small to make it worth it. I shit on a $10 profit. I would rather go down in glorious flames than win $10. If I was betting thousands, I would arb every time.
I personally don't arb because my bankroll is too small to make it worth it. I shit on a $10 profit. I would rather go down in glorious flames than win $10. If I was betting thousands, I would arb every time.
This is pretty much where I'm at but for me an arb would usually mean more like a $3 or $4 profit. Fuck that.
LOL you can watch the highlights of their quotes on the front page like I said.
Since you watched the whole thing though, anything else good in the press conference?
Nope not a thing .I wanted to watch the whole thing. They just talked about the huge insurance they had to carry for the event, how poor Pat Barry was and how much he looks upto CC,the reason Dana wanted Liddell to retire was his lifestyle not the fact they thought he was done. Thats about it
Franklin is down to -119 at matchbook now.Word must be out about Liddells shape. I wish I had put down like 10 units instead of 1 when I bet Liddell at +140 so I could arb out and get a free bet on Liddell
Mr. IWS
06-11-2010, 02:46 PM
Im starting to come around on Franklin. I think he will outpoint Chuck for a W.
poopoo333
06-11-2010, 03:51 PM
Wow money is coming in on Chuck. Glad I grabbed him at +125.
Wow money is coming in on Chuck. Glad I grabbed him at +125.
i got +140 about a week and a half ago, best I can get now is +105
I'm waiting till I see the weigh ins before making final decisions
SPX ,ZY what you betting?
I'm waiting till I see the weigh ins before making final decisions
SPX ,ZY what you betting?
Not sure yet. I actually have not made a single bet.
To be honest, I am having a really hard time making picks for this card and I don't really like any of the lines.
I'm waiting till I see the weigh ins before making final decisions
SPX ,ZY what you betting?
Not sure yet. I actually have not made a single bet.
To be honest, I am having a really hard time making picks for this card and I don't really like any of the lines.
You usually have have 5 picks per card why is this one hard to pick for you? What you stuck on?
You usually have have 5 picks per card why is this one hard to pick for you? What you stuck on?
I can just see every fight that I'd be interested in betting on go either way.
Chuck/Franklin
Condit/MacDonald
Griffin/Dunham
Barry/Crocop
Kampmann/Thiago
Everyone has a way to win here. There's not really a single fight on this card where I'm like, "Yeah, that guy's gonna win."
Mr. IWS
06-11-2010, 04:56 PM
Ill be on HD, thats about it for me.
Ill be on HD, thats about it for me.
I'm thinking about dumping my Liddell bet since I can get a .3 unit free bet on him since the line has dropped so much and just putting a double bet on Barry. I want to see the weighins first
Svino
06-11-2010, 05:44 PM
SPX, almost all of the dogs are live imo.
Guys, Kampmann is +200. I took Thiago @-150 for 3u. What would be the most profitable way to arb out?
A while back I worked out the equivalent of the Kelly formula for an Arb bet, and if anyone's interested, I could dig it out. But I think the key is to figure out which category of Arb bet you would be making. Is it:
A) the case where the line has shifted so much that you are getting value on both sides of the line? If so, you want to make a bet on the new guy that is big enough to not only "even out" your first bet, but also act as an appropriate sized additional bet in its own right.
or
B) The case where you don't think you have an edge on the new line, but you want to reduce risk (optimizing expected long term growth while reducing immediate expected value). Here you will probably want to arb out incompletely, the degree of arbitrage depending on how much negative value you think there is on the new line.
Also, I agree that there may a lot of live dogs on this card. Still haven't decided on my final bets though.
ManBoobKilla
06-11-2010, 06:22 PM
You usually have have 5 picks per card why is this one hard to pick for you? What you stuck on?
I can just see every fight that I'd be interested in betting on go either way.
Chuck/Franklin
Condit/MacDonald
Griffin/Dunham
Barry/Crocop
Kampmann/Thiago
Everyone has a way to win here. There's not really a single fight on this card where I'm like, "Yeah, that guy's gonna win."
I personally think that Barry is a very good bet. He is a destroyer and the only thing that was keeping me from really unloading my units on him was the fact that I thought CroCop would have significant reach on him but I checked their reaches out and even though barry is shorter he has a 74" reach compared to 73" for CroCop. I feel that CroCop doesnt have it anymore, I mean it took him 3 rounds to finish a d level fighter in Perosh. I also feel Thiago is a very solid bet as welll.
I personally think that Barry is a very good bet. He is a destroyer and the only thing that was keeping me from really unloading my units on him was the fact that I thought CroCop would have significant reach on him but I checked their reaches out and even though barry is shorter he has a 74" reach compared to 73" for CroCop. I feel that CroCop doesnt have it anymore, I mean it took him 3 rounds to finish a d level fighter in Perosh. I also feel Thiago is a very solid bet as welll.
Yeah, maybe. I dunno. I'm just not feeling it on this card for some reason.
Just watched the Weigh ins .These are the only notes I took:
David Loiseau didnt look too trim imo
Matt winman was 157 had to naked to get 156 and barely got 156
Tyson griffin is way smaller than Dunham
Rich Franklin looked bigger than Liddell
::handshake::
I'm arb out of my Liddell bet I took Franklin at -120 (should have took it -110) .So I'll win .2 units if Liddell wins and nothing if Franklin does
Thewiseman
06-11-2010, 08:00 PM
I have over 17u on Barry and 13.3u on Thiago. Thinking of lowering those some now.
I have over 17u on Barry and 13.3u on Thiago. Thinking of lowering those some now.
LOL you not like the weigh ins either?
I've bet nothing either. I wanted MacDonald as an underdog but I guess that was wishful thinking. I may hit Rothwell at -170. Yvel is terrible and doesn't belong in the UFC.
I've bet nothing either. I wanted MacDonald as an underdog but I guess that was wishful thinking. I may hit Rothwell at -170. Yvel is terrible and doesn't belong in the UFC.
I would have bet it at matchbook for you
matchbook had Macdonald at +170 for two days before the lines came out
I procrastinate a lot. I really hadn't even thought about it tbh.
I dont like that Franklin is bigger than Liddell thats why I arb'ed out of the bet.
I still win 20 bucks if Liddell wins ::thumbup::
I procrastinate a lot. I really hadn't even thought about it tbh.
LOL so do I .I bet Liddell the earliest than I've placed a bet in a long time
Thewiseman
06-11-2010, 09:30 PM
I have over 17u on Barry and 13.3u on Thiago. Thinking of lowering those some now.
LOL you not like the weigh ins either?
I wrote that before I watched the weigh ins. Does Barry look fat to you? I liked him so much because of his speed. Also, considering arbing out Griffin, Dunham is huge. I need to go watch some Dunham fights again.
Mr. IWS
06-11-2010, 09:45 PM
I thought Pat came in pretty good. He was 243 right? I thought he fought around 250 against Hardonk.
I thought Pat came in pretty good. He was 243 right? I thought he fought around 250 against Hardonk.
Pat wasnt ripped but neither was Cro Cop. Its kind of hard to be ripped at almost 250
LOL you not like the weigh ins either?
I wrote that before I watched the weigh ins. Does Barry look fat to you? I liked him so much because of his speed. Also, considering arbing out Griffin, Dunham is huge. I need to go watch some Dunham fights again.[/quote]
Nah Barry didnt look fat to me. He was about what I expected.
The only two guys that looked bad to me were Griffin and David Loiseau.
Your right Griffin is a midget compared to Dunham. Loiseau looked flabby to me. Those two were the only ones that concerned me at weigh ins
Oh didnt like Franklin looked bigger than Liddell either
poopoo333
06-11-2010, 10:20 PM
I can definitely see Dunham winning this. I will take him at +200, even though Griffin is in my top 3 favorite LWs.
Thewiseman
06-11-2010, 10:47 PM
Made some adjustments. Took down Barry, Griffin and Thiago some. I had 17+u on Barry, 13.3u on Thiago and 3.6u on Tyson. Now this is what I have
Griffin 1.7u to win 1u
Thiago 9.5u to win 6u
Barry 8.34u to win 8u.
I still feel real good about Barry, but with his inexperience I feel much better with this size bet. Thiago im real confident in also, probably shouldnt have arbed that one out. And damn, Griffin was small. That scares me, but I still think he outworks Dunham.
I can definitely see Dunham winning this. I will take him at +200, even though Griffin is in my top 3 favorite LWs.
Sadly, I can see Dunham winning this one, too. He looked much bigger. I have a sig bet that Griffin will win, but I'm thinking of putting .5u on Dunham. At least then, either way I win something. It's kind of like an arb.
Pat Barry weighed 237 for the Hague & Antoni Hardonk fights and weighs 248 today so yes he is a little flabby
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