3-19-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

[kar261]

Dr. Bob (went 2-1 on 3-18-10, +1.8 stars)

2 Star Selection?Xavier (+1) over Minnesota?19-Mar-10 09:25 AM Pacific Time?Xavier tends to have trouble against good defensive teams, but Minnesota's defense has fallen way off without defensive ace PG Al Nolen, who averaged 2.4 steals per game before getting hurt in mid-January. Nolen wasn't very good offensively, but Minnesota's offensive improvement without him doesn't offset the difference in their defensive efficiency. Minnesota has been a bit worse overall without Nolen and this is a game in which his defense would have certainly helped. My ratings favor Xavier by 1 point and the Musketeers apply to a 49-11 ATS subset of a 128-56-6 ATS first round situation while Minnesota applies to a negative 7-31 ATS situation. I'll take Xavier in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

3 Star Selection?Pittsburgh (-10) over Oakland?19-Mar-10 11:55 AM Pacific Time?Pittsburgh struggled early in the season before Jermaine Dixon and Gilbert Brown joined the lineup and the Panthers are still underrated. Pitt is 12-6-2 ATS with their current lineup and my ratings favor the Panthers by 12 1/2 points in this game. Oakland was crushed in 5 games against good teams this season, losing at Wisconsin, Kansas, Memphis, Michigan State, and Syracuse by an average of 28 points. Playing Pitt on a neutral court is 5 1/2 points easier than facing those 5 teams on the road, but that sort of effort against good teams would still result in a blowout win by the Panthers. In addition to the line value, Pitt applies to a 22-2 ATS subset of a 78-26 ATS round 1 situation and I'll take Pitt in a 3-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -13 points in what looks like the best play of the first round.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars up to -13.

3 Star Selection?Maryland (-9) over Houston?19-Mar-10 06:50 PM Pacific Time?Houston's 4 day run through the Conference USA tournament got them into the NCAA Tournament, but teams that play that far above expectations in winning their conference tournament usually come back down to earth in the first round of the NCAA tourney. Houston's 4 game straight up and spread win streak in the CUSA tournament was partially due to random 3-point shooting variance, as the Cougars made 39.4% of their 3-pointers while their opponents shot just 30.3% from long range (rather than the 35% to 34% that was expected in those 4 games). Houston applies to a very negative 28-84-2 ATS letdown situation while Maryland applies to a 24-3-1 ATS first round angle. Houston and Maryland both like to run and the extra possessions give Maryland a greater chance of winning by double-digits. My ratings favor Maryland by 10 1/2 points with pace factored in, so Houston's recent success has given us line value too. I'll take Maryland in a 3-Star Best Bet at -9 or less and for 2-Stars up to -10 points.
Play Strength: 3-Stars at -9 or less, 2-Stars up to -10.

2 Star Selection?California (pick) over Louisville?19-Mar-10 06:55 PM Pacific Time?The Pac-10 certainly deserved their reputation of being a weak conference this season, and that reputation has a good Cal team underrated. The Bears got knocked for having a bad record against top-30 teams, but those top-30 teams were Syracuse, Ohio State (with Turner playing), New Mexico and Kansas, who are two #1 seeds, a #2 and a #3 seed in this tournament. All of those games were away from home and 3 of them were played without Cal's best all-around player Theo Robertson, who averages 14.1 points per game on 49% shooting and 44.4% 3-point shooting. Robertson is also a good defender and his 3-point shooting is a key to the Bears' success, as it makes teams pay for concentrating too much on Pac-10 Player of the Year Jerome Randall and #2 scorer Patrick Christopher. When Robertson was out it was much easier for teams to play a zone defense and focus their attention on the other two stars. Robertson's presence makes teams have to guard 3 great perimeter shooters, which is tougher to do. Cal's compensated offensive efficiency was 0.07 points per possession worse in the 6 games that Robertson missed, which equates to 4.6 points per game. Robertson missed the games against Syracuse, Ohio State and New Mexico and the Bears were within 5 points with 7 minutes left at Kansas after Robertson returned despite star Jerome Randall having a horrible game (3 for 15 shooting and 7 turnovers). Cal is a legitimate top-20 team with Robertson and Pac-10 All-Defensive team G Jorge Gutierrez both healthy (the Bears struggled defensively in the 7 games Gutierrez missed after Robertson came back). Cal's offense actually rates as the 3rd most efficient in the nation after compensating for opposition faced and the Bears would rank #1 if I only used the games in which Robertson played. Cal's defense is the problem, but the Bears are actually better than average defensively. Louisville is a poor shooting team (33.9% 3-pointers) that is not likely to exploit the Bears' defensive weakness. Louisville's defense is actually only 0.01 points per possession better than Cal's defense and the Cardinals' offense is not nearly as good. The veteran Bears (4 senior starters) also don't turn the ball over much (just 12 per game), which will force Louisville to do most of their scoring in the half court set, which is not good for the Cardinals giving their shooting woes. Louisville was just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against teams that average 14 or fewer turnovers per game, so the Bears match up pretty well in this game. My ratings favor the Bears by 3 points with everyone healthy, but key reserve Omondi Amoke has been suspended and Cal's depth is questionable. There is still some line value favoring Cal even without Amoke and the Bears also apply to a 21-2 ATS subset of a 102-39-3 ATS first round situation. I'll take Cal in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or better.
Play Strength: 2-Stars at -2 or better.

Oklahoma State (-1.5) is a Strong Opinion

New Mexico State (+13.5) is a Strong Opinion

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

*10 Tournament GOY

I'm taking the points with UTAH STATE. I respect Texas A&M. However, considering that they are a #5 seed, I feel that the Aggies from Texas got a really unfortunate draw here.

Many will be down on Utah State, as it lost its Conference Tournament Championship game and hails from a "weaker" conference. Both those points are true. The Aggies did lose their Tournament Championship game and the WAC is certainly not as good as the Big 12. That said, there are several reasons why I feel that Utah State can and will earn the upset here.

Yes, the Big 12 is better than the WAC. However, Utah State is the best team from the WAC, the loss in the finals notwithstanding. The same cannot be said of Texas A&M in the Big 12. Yes, Utah State lost it the WAC Finals. However, the Aggies may have assumed that they already had an NCAA berth wrapped up and may have been already looking ahead. Either way, let's not forget that they had won 17 in a row, before that loss.

Unlike a lot of teams from lesser conferences, getting to the Big Dance is nothing new for the Aggies from Utah State. Indeed, this is their second straight appearance and the seventh time that they've been here in the last 11 years. They lost in the first round last season. However, that was against a Marquette team which had started the season 20-2 and which had been one of the better teams in what was a very powerful Big East Conference. Additionally, that loss came by just a single point. Note that they limited the Golden Eagles to only 47 shot attempts and a mere 36.2 percent shooting.

I feel that this year's Utah State team is every bit as good as last year's team, arguably even better. Yes, they did lose a star when forward Gary Wilkinson graduated. That was admittedly a big loss. The other four starters have all improved though and Nate Bendall (10.4, 5.4) has done a capable job in stepping in for Wilkinson.

As is generally the case when a team that comes from a lesser conference faces a team from a conference like the Big 12, Utah State doesn't necessarily have the type of athleticism that Texas A&M brings to the table. However, the Aggies are more athletic than people probably believe and they also make up for it in a number of different ways.

For starters, they're one of the best shooting teams in the country. In the regular season, the Aggies led the WAC in field goal percentage (48.9), 3-point percentage (42.0) and free throw shooting (76.6). They pass the ball very well and every starter averaged greater than eight points during the regular season.

Additionally, the Utah State Aggies are an extremely efficient team which rarely turns the ball over. Indeed, they had single-digits in turnovers in each of their final six regular season games. For the season, Utah State finished sixth in the nation in fewest turnovers.

They also run a complicated 'motion offense' which can be difficult for opposing teams to prepare for. Fresno State forward Sylvester Seay described preparing for them like this: "They have like 100 damn plays. It's like taking a test and guessing what things the teacher's going to put on the test."

Texas A&M does have excellent guard play. However, Utah State is also strong in that area. Pooh Williams is one of the best defenders in the WAC and he'll be asked to stop A&M senior Donald Sloan. Meanwhile, senior (first-team All-WAC) point guard Jared Quayle is one of the better players that many haven't heard of. He averaged 11.9 points, 4.3 assists and an impressive 6.2 rebounds during the regular season. I expect him to do a good job in slowing down the tempo.

While Utah State doesn't have many senior players, they're not as 'young' as many might imagine, as many of their players have taken two-year church missions.

Utah State coach Stew Morrill, the WAC Coach of the year, said of his team: I like this team. They show up every day. They are great acting kids. They don't care about stats. They care about winning. They share the ball; they play hard.

Over the years, we often see #12 seeds upset #5 seeds. With this game being played at Spokane, Washington, I feel that there's a great shot that we'll see another upset here. *10 Tournament GOY

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
10* 1st Round GOY 3/19
1st Round GOY on Gonzaga

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Millionaire - Minnesota
Millionaire - Maryland
Billionaire - Purdue
Billionaire - Mich St
No Limit - Utah St (GOY)
No Limit - California

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

20 Temple -3.5 vs. Cornell

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lang

NOTE:
Just absolutely feeling it.

In the zone is in the zone and 9 straight college winners and a 14-2-1 college basketball best bet run should tell you I am feeling it.

Yes, was sweating a little bit with the Huskies down 15 in the 2nd half, but as I said perfectly in my analysis, you continue to play close games like Marquette had and eventually it's going to bite you in the ass.

And it most certainly did last night as they could have closed out the Huskies, but as has been their problem all year long, they just don't close people out and in a near pick game they got beat.

Good for me because it pushes the college run to 9 straight winners and a 14-2-1 run in the biggest basketball money making month of the year, March baby.

Nothing beats winning in March and considering the fact I am looking for college basketball winner # 10 in a row, I would say my opinion is right where it needs to be heading into the second day of the Big Dance.

Have a great feel for college basketball right now and the product I am churning out speaks for itself. Simple as that.

Feel great about 9 straight college winners. 14-2-1 college best bet run. 3 straight winning weeks.

Looking for more today. I want # 10 in a row badly. I want to push the best bet run to 15-2-1. I want 4 straight winning weeks when all is said and done after this week.

But first, it's time to get to my 10th straight college basketball winner:


20 DIME - TEMPLE -

All Owls today.

Bottom line folks is if Cornell is going to be successful they have got to get open looks from behind the arc and truth be told, Temple is just too long defensively to allow that to happen.

I understand the publics fascination with Cornell since their near miss at Kansas but do you really think the Jayhawks were motivated on a weeknight early in the year to take on Cornell? Exactly.%key% Further examination will show you they were just 3-7 ATS down the stretch including a 79-64 loss at Penn as a 16 point favorite.

The key word of the day sportsfans when dealing with Cornell is OVERRATED.

As for Temple, they won the A-10 regular season, the A-10 tourney, and they have won 10 in a row SU, going 8-1-1 ATS, and they plan on making some noise in this tourney.

The numbers will show you that in the 8 games Temple has been favored by 4 or less they are a fantastic 7-0-1 ATS with the push happening last Sunday courtesy of a missed free throw with 2 seconds to go.

Fact of the matter is this team has been a cash-cow putting up a 22-10-1 ATS mark and I don't care who you are, that is making money.

The final straw for me is the fact Cornell is just 2-6 ATS last 8 as a neutral site dog, the role they find themselves in today.

Temple advances today with another win and cover.

FREE PICK - XAVIER

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

Ben Burns: Burns' *10* BEST BET ATS ROUT! *PERFECT 4-0 L4 BBs
Toronto Raptors at Oklahoma City Thunder Mar 19 2010 7:05PM
Play on: Toronto Raptors

Ben Burns: Burns' REVENGE Game of the Week *6-1 RUN CONTINUES
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers Mar 19 2010 7:35PM
Play on: Philadelphia 76ers


Ben Burns: ***EPIC 77-42-4 YTD!*** Burns' EARLY O/U SHOOTOUT!
New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers Mar 19 2010 7:35PM
Play on: over


Ben Burns: **THIS IS IT** Burns' Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR!
Texas A&M at Utah St. Mar 19 2010 4:55PM
Play on: Utah St.


Ben Burns: Burns' 1st Rd TOTAL OF THE YEAR! (5-0 L5, 8-1 L9)
Maryland at Houston Mar 19 2010 9:50PM
Play on: over


Ben Burns: **VERY EARLY** Burns BLUE CHIP *7 totals in a row?
West Virginia at Morgan State Mar 19 2010 12:15PM
Play on: over



Ben Burns: **18-8-1 L6 Days** Burns' ANNIHILATOR (VERY EARLY)
Xavier at Minnesota Mar 19 2010 12:25PM
Play on: Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al



4* Maryland
3* Michiga State
3* Utah State

Opinions

Purdue
Syracuse
Gonzaga
Pittsburgh
california
Temple

[Mr. IWS]

DR BOB
Friday Night Free NBA Best Bet
**Oklahoma City (pick) over TORONTO
Rotation #803 - 4:05 pm Pacific
Oklahoma City blew a chance to extend their winning streak to 6 games when they gave up a 19 point lead and lost at Charlotte on Wednesday. The Thunder are likely to bounce-back given their 19-5 ATS record this season after a loss (47-21 ATS after a loss going back to last season). Toronto, meanwhile, tends to struggle against good teams, especially if their opponent is rested. The Raptors are just 7-36 straight up and 10-32-1 ATS when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or higher that had the previous night off. My ratings favor Oklahoma City by 1 point, so the line is fair, and I'll take Oklahoma City in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.