View Full Version : UFN 3/31 odds/discussion
poopoo333
03-23-2010, 02:49 PM
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/246.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)
I know I will be taking Florian and Nelson... do you guys think the lines will get better near fight time?
I am also considering a prop bet that Florian/Gomi goes the distance for +220...convince me to or not to.
Mr. IWS
03-23-2010, 02:59 PM
Im leaning Florini's way too.
GL
I think I'll stay away from the Florian fight. I think it really all depends on Gomi. If he actually has a real training camp instead of just kicking his students around and actually works conditioning, he absolutely has a good shot at winning. If not, well Florian will probably mop him up. Either way I don't want to put that much on Florini.
I would take a bet finishing inside the distance. Florian rarely goes to decision with anyone anymore. Those elbows are sharp as fuck and once someone gets busted open they get frantic, thats when he finishes.
poopoo333
03-23-2010, 03:32 PM
My plays:
3u on Nelson
3u on Florian
0.5u on Linhares
I am contemplating Tibau... I really think he will beat Uno.
MMA_scientist
03-23-2010, 03:55 PM
I think I'll stay away from the Florian fight. I think it really all depends on Gomi. If he actually has a real training camp instead of just kicking his students around and actually works conditioning, he absolutely has a good shot at winning. If not, well Florian will probably mop him up. Either way I don't want to put that much on Florini.
I think Florian could probably beat Gomi 2005. But the fact is that that Gomi is gone... it has been 4 years since we have seen the good Gomi. In the off chance that Gomi shows up good again, I still think Florian will deal with him. Florian is good and has the very best training partner in the world in GSP.
I have 5u on Florian
5u on Nelson, I see no way for Struve to beat Nelson, great match-up for Roy
I think Linhares has some value, but probably won't bet it, because I do feel that Okami will win.
I am seriously considering Pearson. @ -188 he has value. The only reason I hesitate is that we have not seen him fight another striker yet. I watched tape on Siver, and he basically looks like a less potent version of Perason. Plus he's German, so how much training can he be getting.
On my to-research list:
Pearson/Siver
Emerson/Lentz
Uno/Tibau
Harris/Miranda
I think that Tibau is just too fucking big for Uno (and too big to big a lightweight, really), but I want to go back and watch some tape. My guess is Tibau just muscles him around the whole fight.
Harris is my boy (Hurricane FTW!) but I know nothing of Miranda except that he's apparently 11-0.
I might like Torres against Volkmann. Torres looked pretty good overall against an improved and always-capable Guillard. Volkmann on the other hand has been relatively unimpressive. Also, what the fuck? Volkmann's a lightweight now? Has he ever even made that cut before?
I'd like to take Quarry, but his current line is just unappetizing. Even though he won, Quarry really didn't look that great at all against Tim Credeur.
I also might drop .25u on Struve. The forum is full of fucking haters, but I don't think that "Struve has no way to win" as some of you are saying. He's game, he's tall and long, and if he can keep Roy on the outside then he can win that fight. Also, the danger of a sub is always there with that guy.
MMA_scientist
03-23-2010, 05:26 PM
I also might drop .25u on Struve. The forum is full of fucking haters, but I don't think that "Struve has no way to win" as some of you are saying. He's game, he's tall and long, and if he can keep Roy on the outside then he can win that fight. Also, the danger of a sub is always there with that guy.
You just hate Roy because he is fat.
Struve will not be submitting Roy.
Maybe he will win the standup, but I doubt it. He has pillow hands, while Roy has a rock for a head.
Roy has very good takedowns, and he is going to use them, if and when he needs them. Roy should be -600.
MMA_scientist
03-23-2010, 05:29 PM
oh and my research list:
Dos Anjos, Pelligrino, Torres, Harris, Veach, Madsen, Demarquez Johnson.
I am looking seriously at Pearson now, probably go a little smaller on him, like 2 or 2.5u
When I am done with Pearson, I am gonna look at Friday's fights on Strikeforce Challengers. I really like Galvao if the odds are right. Galvao is up there with the best grapplers in the world... if the odds are right I am taking him. Also Daniel Cormier. Cormier is a 2x runner up in NCAA wrestling, would have been a multiple champ if some guy named Cael Sanderson was not in his weight class. He has made noise internationally, a beast in wrestling. One of the best wrestlers in MMA.
someone make a strikeforce challengers thread. Galvao and Cormier.
You just hate Roy because he is fat.
I could get over his slovenly I-just-don't-give-a-fuck lack of self-respect if he had a good personality, but the guy just sucks all around.
Roy has very good takedowns, and he is going to use them, if and when he needs them. Roy should be -600.
For the sake of all things good in the world I hope you're wrong.
Dos Anjos
I jumped on him early and I'm surprised you didn't. I mean Christ, he opened at +185 against Terry Etim? That shit's WAY off. Seems like a pick 'em fight to me.
someone make a strikeforce challengers thread.
You know you don't need special permission or anything to do that, right?
MMA_scientist
03-23-2010, 05:38 PM
I jumped on him early and I'm surprised you didn't. I mean Christ, he opened at +185 against Terry Etim? That shit's WAY off. Seems like a pick 'em fight to me.
yeah, i wanted to make sure I wasn't missing anything on Etim though. I still don't know why Dos Anjos is the underdog. I would make him the favorite to like -150 or so.
You know you don't need special permission or anything to do that, right?
yeah, but I don't like to make threads no one cares about.
yeah, but I don't like to make threads no one cares about.
I do it all the time,its called my all my boxing threads
MMA_scientist
03-23-2010, 05:45 PM
^^ ha. I read those. I just don't have anything useful to add.
^^ ha. I read those. I just don't have anything useful to add.
I have decided to completely stop betting basketball and focus on boxing more ,so far its working.
Heck I dont care if you got insight on the fight say whatever you want ::handshake::
Mr. IWS
03-23-2010, 06:06 PM
yeah, but I don't like to make threads no one cares about.
I do it all the time,its called my all my boxing threads
::lmao::
Mr. IWS
03-23-2010, 06:07 PM
WAR NELSON!
You just hate Roy because he is fat.
LOL true story.
And about Florian, I can see how he'd be the logical pick, but for some reason I have this feeling that Gomi is going to show up and just beat his ass. Maybe it's because I don't think Florian is really that great. His biggest wins are running away from Roger Huerta and outboxing Clay Guida. BFD.
His biggest wins are running away from Roger Huerta and outboxing Clay Guida. BFD.
There's some truth to this.
I'd like to see him fight Griffin or Maynard.
And the only two guys he's ever lost to in the UFC are the last two guys to hold the belt. Plus there is his win over Stevenson who was one fight removed from losing the fight that gained BJ the belt. Maybe the Gomi of old could beat the Florian of now, but the Gomi of now will be lucky to see the third round with Florian.
3u parlay to win 3.3u on Florian, Nelson, and Okami
I'm sort of on the fence about Pearson. He's pretty good and definitely a good talent. But this Siver guy has a tendency to hit hard and be very proficient on the ground as well. I might stay away from that one in the end but I'll do some research.
And the only two guys he's ever lost to in the UFC are the last two guys to hold the belt. Plus there is his win over Stevenson who was one fight removed from losing the fight that gained BJ the belt. Maybe the Gomi of old could beat the Florian of now, but the Gomi of now will be lucky to see the third round with Florian.
There's also that incredible assbeating he took from Diego.
There's also that incredible assbeating he took from Diego.
You're educated enough to know that that was not only at a different weight class, but also at a whole other level of experience.
There's also that incredible assbeating he took from Diego.
You're educated enough to know that that was not only at a different weight class, but also at a whole other level of experience.
So it doesn't count? They both dropped to LW so that's irrelevant and both were less experienced.
Seriously though, I've still yet to see any technical analysis of how Kenny will win. Just "oh Gomi sucks now". So how do you guys on Kenny see it going down? Is he going to outstrike Gomi? Surely he's not going to knock him out. I'd bet he has problems getting him down too.
I just can't see Kenny as that much of a favorite, even with Gomi's proclivities.
Don't say "you guys" because I don't hardly know who the fuck Gomi is.
My point is that at this point Kenny's loss to Sanchez is of limited usefulness. If they fought today it's at best a pick 'em . . . otherwise Florian wins.
He's the most accomplished LW of all time.
He's the most accomplished LW of all time.
Japanese MMA.
'Nuff said.
No, actually, it doesn't count. It was 5 years ago, 30lbs heavier, and long before Florian developed his Muay Thai and clinching skills or any other skills for that matter to where they are today. So no, it doesn't count. He could knock him out at this point. Everyone said there was no way Cain Valasquez would knock Minotauro out, and look at what happened. When guys get up this way in thier career getting into battle after battle they lose a few things. First is the chin. More likely though is that Kenny bullies Gomi with the clinch for most of the fight, then he uses his elbows and kicks to finish him off.
Svino
03-24-2010, 12:59 AM
I think Florian has value, even though there are some big unknowns. Gomi may have a technical wrestling advantage, but I'd guess the fight takes place mostly on the feet, with Florian outstriking him.
I actually think that many of the lightweights that fight/fought in Japan are overrated, in much the same way that the non-Pride leagues produced a lot of overrated heavys in the Sylvia/Arlovski/Buentello/Rothwell era. When there are two different pools of fighters that don't cross much, people tend to assume the leagues are about equal, even if that's not always right. Gomi beat a lot of guys in Pride, but when I look at his resume, it doesn't impress all that much. Even close to his prime, he lost to Hansen, and who were the best guys he beat? Ishida? Sakurai? They're pretty good, but not worth the hype Gomi got. (I don't think Aoki deserves the #2 ranking, either.)
I'd love to be wrong. I always liked Gomi and I think it would be great if he started tearing shit up in the UFC.
He's the most accomplished LW of all time.
Japanese MMA.
'Nuff said.
::lmao:: You got to be kidding saying "Japanese MMA nuff said"
Pride was Japanese MMA and every since they closed down there fighters have done nothing but dominate UFC and Strikeforce
The UFC and Strikforce would be nothing without the Japanese Pride fighters .I mean look at the 185 and 205 champs from before Pride and after .
Now the lighter guys is different but to say Japanese MMA is a joke is just wrong
Svino
03-24-2010, 01:04 AM
Japanese MMA.
'Nuff said.
Heh, you got to the point much better than I did.
No, actually, it doesn't count. It was 5 years ago, 30lbs heavier, and long before Florian developed his Muay Thai and clinching skills or any other skills for that matter to where they are today. So no, it doesn't count. He could knock him out at this point. Everyone said there was no way Cain Valasquez would knock Minotauro out, and look at what happened. When guys get up this way in thier career getting into battle after battle they lose a few things. First is the chin. More likely though is that Kenny bullies Gomi with the clinch for most of the fight, then he uses his elbows and kicks to finish him off.
Kenny could knock Diego out at this point? Or were you referring to Gomi?
And yeah, I'm open to the possibility that Kenny dominates Gomi, but I just don't expect it. He's going to make much more of a fight of it than he's getting credit. You really think Kenny is going to want to bully him in the clinch? It's not like Kenny is a big LW, and his striking is generally more evasive. I would expect him to try and fight like he did against Huerta.
I think Florian has value, even though there are some big unknowns. Gomi may have a technical wrestling advantage, but I'd guess the fight takes place mostly on the feet, with Florian outstriking him.
I actually think that many of the lightweights that fight/fought in Japan are overrated, in much the same way that the non-Pride leagues produced a lot of overrated heavys in the Sylvia/Arlovski/Buentello/Rothwell era. When there are two different pools of fighters that don't cross much, people tend to assume the leagues are about equal, even if that's not always right. Gomi beat a lot of guys in Pride, but when I look at his resume, it doesn't impress all that much. Even close to his prime, he lost to Hansen, and who were the best guys he beat? Ishida? Sakurai? They're pretty good, but not worth the hype Gomi got. (I don't think Aoki deserves the #2 ranking, either.)
I'd love to be wrong. I always liked Gomi and I think it would be great if he started tearing shit up in the UFC.
Marcus Aurelio, Duane Ludwig, Hayoto Sakurai, Jens Pulver(the only LW to ever beat Penn and the UFC LW champ). Those are just the guys who fought in the UFC. I can keep going with wins over Kawajiri, Azeredo(x2), Jean Silva, Ishida.
I'd say there's plenty of overlap.
As far as Aoki, since just about all rankings are based on accomplishment, Aoki should actually probably be ranked #1. The fact that Penn is a terrible style matchup for him should do nothing to deter his ranking, considering his body of work. Rankings don't mean much to me as I don't care either way, but I'm just saying for the sake of consistency.
Besides, if you wanted you could tear any fighter's record to shreds. Anyone. So I don't see how it's really fair.
Svino
03-24-2010, 01:21 AM
The UFC and Strikforce would be nothing without the Japanese Pride fighters .I mean look at the 185 and 205 champs from before Pride and after .
Now the lighter guys is different but to say Japanese MMA is a joke is just wrong
Yeah, that's just it. It's kind of weird. I think Pride had much better heavys (compare Fedor, Nog, Barnett, Cro Cop to the 4 guys I mentioned above), and middleweights (Little Nog, Shogun, Rampage, Hendo, Wandy). But when you ask what post-Pride successful LWs they had, it's like: ------- [ crickets chirp ] --------
Actually you could argue that Pride hasn't dominated the UFC at all. Below is a breakdown of notable Pride fighters who crossed over to the UFC and how they did. I realize alot of them were pitted against each other but bear with me here.
Shogun came from Pride and straight got his ass whooped by Forrest Griffin, then he struggled to beat Coleman. It's only after beating a down and out Liddell and a withering Mark Coleman, and Rampage being booked to fight Rashad after TUF that Shogun got the title shot at all. He loses the fight to Machida in a razor thin and questionable decision. 2-2 since Pride in the UFC, 2-2 vs UFC fighters(as opposed to Pride fighters primarily)
Rampage won the title after beating Eastman due mostly to hype, and for some reason Rampage always had Liddells number. He then goes on to lose to Forrest and then destroy a past prime Wanderlei Silva, and then edge Jardine out. 4-1 since Pride in the UFC, 3-1 against UFC fighters(
Dan Henderson loses his first two fights in the UFC in unification fights to Anderson Silva and Rampage(two guys who fought in Pride, though Silva fought less in Pride than anywhere else). He then goes on to win a close decision to Rich Franklin and then coach TUF before beating Michael Bisping in devastating fashion. Failed contract negotiations brought about his leave of the UFC. 2-2 in the UFC since coming from Pride, 2-1 against UFC fighters
Mark Coleman after returning to the UFC from Pride is matched up with Shogun, seemingly as a rematch from Pride that ended prematurely when Shogun's arm was broken. Coleman gasses early in the second and eventually loses to Shogun. He then fights Stephan Bonnar, winning a decision impressive for a guy his age, only to have whatever small momentum snuffed out by Randy Couture in the fight that should have happened ten years ago. 1-2 in the UFC since Pride, 1-1 against UFC fighters
Wanderlei Silva comes to the UFC and we finally get the dream fight of the ages two years too late with Chuck Liddell. He loses the decision to Chuck but goes on to all but murder Keith Jardine in under a minute. Next up is Rampage, we all saw how that went. He then fights Rich Franklin in a draining catchweight in which he loses a unanimous decision, before fighting and beating Michael Bisping in the same fashion at Middleweight. 2-3 in the UFC since Pride, 2-2 against UFC fighters
Minotauro fights Heath Herring in his first UFC fight, winning by unanimous decision. He is then granted a shot at former champion Tim Sylvia. After a couple rounds of abuse He manages a choke out win over Sylvia. After TUF he and Frank Mir square off for the interim title, in which Frank knocks him out(yeah I know, the staph infection). He rebounds with a win over Randy Couture before losing recently to Cain Valasquez. 3-2 in the UFC, 2-2 against UFC fighters
Heath Herring fights and loses a decision to Jake O'Brien. He then beats Brad Imes(remember the retard strength having farm boy from TUF?) and loses to Minotauro. He beats Chiek Kongo before losing most recently to Brock Lesnar. 2-3 in the UFC since Pride, 2-2 against UFC fighters
Cro Cop's story is one of woes. He comes into the UFC against Eddie Sanchez, looking to have not lost a step at all when he knocks him out with punches. Things take a turn for the worst when Gabriel Gonzaga gives Cro Cop the Cro Cop treatment and knocks him out via head kick. It's clear Cro Cop has lost something when Cheik Kongo beats him in a decision before he takes a hiatus from the UFC to fight in K-1 and Dream. He makes his return against Mustapha Al Turk, winning a piss poor fight due mostly to an eye poke the Ref didn't see. But it's right back down the ladder he goes when Junior Dos Santos puts on a two and a half round clinic on him enroute to a win for Dos Santos. He then fights Anthony Perosh recently for a doctor stoppage TKO. 3-3 in the UFC since Pride, 3-3 against UFC fighters
In conclusion as you can see Prides top fighters have gone 19-18 in the UFC since coming from Pride. 17-14 against UFC fighters. That isn't what I would call domination.
^^True, not domination but not inferiority either.
Also, you're leaving a few wins out. Rampage is 5-1 in the UFC, you left out Henderson. And Henderson is 3-2 in the UFC, he also beat Palhares. Add in Anderson Silva's 10 wins and we're at 31-18.
That big of a list and somehow you left out Anderson Silva whos 9-0 against UFC fighters?
Talk about tunnel vision
And how is Machida considered a "UFC " fighter he didnt even fight in the UFC till AFTER these guys came over from PRIDE
Anderson Silva fought five times in Pride, never participated in a tournament, never fought for a title there. He fought more often in Cage Rage and Meca.
My bad on Rampage and Henderson in missing one each. I never said they were inferior. I'm just saying the argument can be made that they didn't dominate. There was nothing superhuman about Pride's fighters. They are no better on the whole than any of the UFC's top fighters were/are is all.
Svino
03-24-2010, 02:12 AM
Interesting breakdown, Ludo. But when I think about Pride vs. UFC, I'm thinking more about comparing the guys who were dominant in Pride with the guys who were dominant in the UFC at the same time, not so much the new blood like Machida, Cain, and JDS. Franklin, Couture, Liddell, and Ortiz would probably be the LHW counterparts to the Pride guys I mentioned. Anderson, let's call "shared property". He did leave Prider earlier.
As for Cro Cop, I think Dana hates him. IMO, he's been given consistently bad matchups (not counting Perosh).
How is Lyoto Machida not listed as a UFC fighter when he never fought in Pride? Especially when the only time he comes up on the above listing of fights he's the defending Champion?
How is Lyoto Machida not listed as a UFC fighter when he never fought in Pride? Especially when the only time he comes up on the above listing of fights he's the defending Champion?
PRIDE wasnt around when Machida made the transition to UFC hows he suppose to fight in it ::lmao::
Anderson Silva fought five times in Pride, never participated in a tournament, never fought for a title there. He fought more often in Cage Rage and Meca.
My bad on Rampage and Henderson in missing one each. I never said they were inferior. I'm just saying the argument can be made that they didn't dominate. There was nothing superhuman about Pride's fighters. They are no better on the whole than any of the UFC's top fighters were/are is all.
So Anderson Silva is a UFC fighter then right? ::swifty::
Interesting breakdown, Ludo. But when I think about Pride vs. UFC, I'm thinking more about comparing the guys who were dominant in Pride with the guys who were dominant in the UFC at the same time, not so much the new blood like Machida, Cain, and JDS. Franklin, Couture, Liddell, and Ortiz would probably be the LHW counterparts to the Pride guys I mentioned. Anderson, let's call "shared property". He did leave Prider earlier.
As for Cro Cop, I think Dana hates him. IMO, he's been given consistently bad matchups (not counting Perosh).
Yes thats exactly what I mean .You cant compare PRIDE fighters from 4 years ago to UFC fighters that just came around within the last year ,thats just silly
Take a look at the top guys when the Pride fighter came over compared to the top UFC fighters at the time:
Tim Sylvia :he's better than Fedor the Pride Champ? nope
Rich Franklin: he's better than Anderson Silva? nope
Liddell :Hes better than Rampage? nope
Franklin was on a 5 fight win streak ,Liddell was on a 7 fight win streak.These guys looked unbeatable and then the Pride guys came over and beat the shit out of both of them and neither has been the same since
If PRIDE would have ever took on the UFC in a head to head battle they would have destroyed their Champs back then .
Dont anyone get mad we can argue back and forth without taking it personal correct?
Well that almost works. Anderson never fought at 185 in Pride, he was fighting Welterweight at the time he fought in Pride for all of a handful of times. You can't pretend Anderson Silva was a Pride fighter when he already has fought twice as much in the UFC than he ever did during his relatively short time(1 year just about, not including the last time around against Chonan which came after several fights elsewhere).
Furthermore. Pride wasn't sold to the Fertittas until around spring of 2007. Anderson Silva hadn't fought in Pride since 2004, and already had three fights in the UFC by this time. He never held a Pride title, and never participated in any of Pride's tournaments. How can he be classified as a Pride Fighter in the same regard like the rest of these guys who all signed with the UFC AFTER Pride folded when he was already there and winning after not competing in Pride in over 2 years?
Well that almost works. Anderson never fought at 185 in Pride, he was fighting Welterweight at the time he fought in Pride for all of a handful of times. You can't pretend Anderson Silva was a Pride fighter when he already has fought twice as much in the UFC than he ever did during his relatively short time(1 year just about, not including the last time around against Chonan which came after several fights elsewhere).
Furthermore. Pride wasn't sold to the Fertittas until around spring of 2007. Anderson Silva hadn't fought in Pride since 2004, and already had three fights in the UFC by this time. He never held a Pride title, and never participated in any of Pride's tournaments. How can he be classified as a Pride Fighter in the same regard like the rest of these guys who all signed with the UFC AFTER Pride folded when he was already there and winning after not competing in Pride in over 2 years?
Somehow you claim Machida as a UFC fighter and he came to the UFC after the time period I'm taking about but Silva who did fight in PRIDE isnt a Pride fighter .
OK I get it now
So you can tell me with a straight face when the Pride Fighters came over they werent better than:Liddell ,Franklin and Sylvia? Because those were the unbeatables in the UFC at the time and they are all now jokes while Fedor,Rampage,and Silva are far from
Just say the pride fighters that came over are better than what the UFC had at the time . Me using the word dominated is just about like me calling everyone a bum .I dont always mean the exact words I type but most the guys around here know that
Svino
03-24-2010, 03:20 AM
I always thought that Anderson did a lot of his "leveling up" in Cage Rage, but no one really noticed because the people he was beating weren't that good. Then he came to the UFC and it was like, "Holy shit! This guy got really good when we weren't looking."
One other thing about Gomi - he's only 31. I hope his chin won't be too far gone at that age. I know people talk a lot about "fight age", reflecting the thought that its the number of fights that matters, but damn; if that's the case, how is Travis Fulton still alive?
Mr. IWS
03-24-2010, 08:28 AM
If PRIDE would have ever took on the UFC in a head to head battle they would have destroyed their Champs back then .
I agree. Especially in the HW division. I think Murr and Timmeh would have had a hard time beating the Pride version of Heath Herring back then to be honest.
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 10:16 AM
Don't want to add to the Pride vs. UFC talk... but
If Anderson Silva is a Pride guy, then Wanderlei and Hendo are UFC fighters, since they both fought in the UFC before going to Pride. I think the weightclasses were about even, except LW where I think Japanese MMA is consistely overrated.
As to Gomi, in his last 5 fights \
he took Seung Bang (11-7) to decision (bang has not won since)
Lost to Sergey Golyaev (16-7) (Golyaev lost his very next fight to Eiji Mitsuoka)
Lost to Saturo Kitaoka (25-10) (Kitaoka is 1-2 since beating Gomi)
Beat Takakura (11-3)
Took Tony Hervey (11-7) to decision (Hervey is 0-2 since losing to Gomi)
None of these guys is even top 30. The only guy on the list with a single credible win is Kitaoka.
It has been 3 years since Gomi has shown up to fight. He does have heavy hands, but Florian has never been dropped by a power shot.
Florian's wrestling is terribly underrated. He can get takedowns. I think he will win the striking and then ground him and finish him off. I expect him to thoughly work Gomi.
Gomi has some credible wins (Ishida, Kawajiri, Hansen is good) but lets not get crazy, his record is mostly cans. He has about 10 legit fights (BJ, Pulver, Aurelio, Mishima, Ishida, Kawajiri, Sakurai, Hansen, and Diaz). In that group, he is 7-3. So in my mind, he is 7-3, and on a streak of fighting small show guys and having difficulties, and sometimes losing.
So... Florian.
Florian's wrestling is terribly underrated.
I was impressed with his ability to completely shrug off Guida's takedown attempts. I know a lot of people talked about how Florian had not fought another strong wrestler since Sherk--and we all know how that went--and were expecting Guida to do his smother routine. Hardly. I don't think Guida got a single takedown that entire fight.
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 11:41 AM
^^ he did get him down once, but Florian defended well and was able to get up pretty quick. I was more impressed that Kenny took Guida down. I am pretty sure he slammed him down Hughes-style. He has had several big takedowns in his recent fights, but they seem to go unnoticed.
Actually Machida entered the UFC about a month before Pride was sold to the Fertittas, so...
Also, he was fighting in Japan in all through 2004-2005, just not in Pride. He was fighting in K-1 and Inoki Bon Ba Ye. So since he wasn't fighting in Pride when he could have been, and was fighting in the UFC before most of these Pride fighters came in, that would sort of make him a UFC fighter by default.
I already said if you put Rampage, Wanderlei, Hendo, and Shogun up head to head against Chuck, Tito, Randy, and Franklin it wouldn't even be close 4 years ago. However four years ago we had alot of differences at work here. A ring vs an Octagon, stomps allowed in one but not in the other, steroids permitted in one and not the other.
As far as it goes with Gomi/Florian. Gomi doesn't have anything to bring with him here than Florian can't deal with. This is like Nick Diaz vs Frank Shamrock. Gomi may not be that far gone, but he might be as well.
Lol scientist, picking and choosing records. You could be a politician.
In my mind, Kenny is 1-2, the only legit fights he's had are Penn, Sherk, and Stevenson.
Look, I just think that if Gomi actually shows up, which I would think he will being in the ufc that it will be a hell of a fight. I don't hink his recent string is due to decline, more just motivation problems. If not, well yeah Kenny will probably handle him. If he gases in 5 seconds we'll know for sure.
Also, are we crediting Guida with good takedowns now?
Maybe I just hate Ben Stillers face, I dunno.
Ludo don't be that guy that goes he steroid route. It's cheap and vindictive and all those guys were later beat up by pride fighters in the ufc.
In my mind, Kenny is 1-2, the only legit fights he's had are Penn, Sherk, and Stevenson.
Guida, Huerta, Lauzon, and Din Thomas are no joke. They may not quite be among the very elite in the division, but neither is Stevenson, who you count as "legitimate."
Not sure where you're going with this or what your standard of "legitimacy" is.
Also, are we crediting Guida with good takedowns now?
Maybe I just hate Ben Stillers face, I dunno.
I think Guida is good at Jon Fitch-style wrestling, where he gets a hold of you and rides your back for three rounds. Generally somewhere in the process his opponent gets taken down. The double-leg is not the only take down in MMA.
I'm not saying it to be vindictive or cheap. It's a known fact. Wanderlei Silva is one of my all time favorite fighters, but he was on the juice in Japan. Same with Coleman, Same with a few guys in Pride. Not all of the ones who were doing it in Pride crossed over to the UFC. But anyway.
How do we not credit Guida with good takedowns? He was able to take Diego Sanchez down, and Florian, and Diaz, and Gugerty... Ya kinda have to give a guy who manages at least one takedown or more every fight with good takedowns if not better than good takedowns. There is something to be said about the barnacle tactic.
As far as it goes. You have to take this whole "Pride vs UFC" on a subjective case by case basis. We don't know for certain who would have won anything because none of it ever happened until after Pride was purchased and these guys got brought to the UFC to fight. I liked Pride too, it was good, but it wasn't the second coming of christ good. Good fighters will be good fighters no matter WHERE they fight. What defines them as great fighters is skill and level of opposition.
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 01:01 PM
Lol scientist, picking and choosing records. You could be a politician.
How do you know I am not?
[quote="zY|":2g88tose]Lol scientist, picking and choosing records. You could be a politician.
How do you know I am not?
I am just trying to convince myself, because I actually made a horrible mistake and bet like half of my bankroll on Florian and Nelson. Literally, if one of them loses, it will set me back like 2 years.
Do you know on Bookmaker when you place your bets and you can either choose "risk amount" or "win amount"? Teh default is "wager" which is equivalent to win amount. I buzzed through the process and instead of betting 5units, I bet to win 5units on BOTH guys. So @ -290, I have to bet 29 units to win 5u on each. It was after my 109 loss, so I adjusted my bankroll, and I literally have like 55% of my entire stake on those fights.
I am confident in Roy, but I am sick about the Florian fight. So I am trying to make myself feel better.[/quote:2g88tose]
HOLY SHIT, DUDE!!!!!!!!!!
That is fucked.
Well hey, I'm going to do something that I would never normally do under the circumstances: I'm going to hope Nelson wins. I'd hate for you to lose that cash. That's terrible. What a gut-wrenching situation.
Svino
03-24-2010, 01:08 PM
Hoo boy. Well, good luck. I do think those are good fights to bet on. Struve has a striking advantage, but his ability to keep people at bay isn't nearly as good as it could be for someone with his reach. Nelson will get in, take him down, and smother him with fat.
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 01:12 PM
Ninja'd by SPX.
I tried to delete as to not amass pity when Florian loses, too late.
Ninja'd by SPX.
I tried to delete as to not amass pity when Florian loses, too late.
Oh, whoops. . .
I guess I was so overwhelmed with regret for you by your story that I responded immediately. I would seriously be a nervous wreck between now and fight night if that happened to me.
But look on the bright side, if you win both bets then you'll have an unusually good night.
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 01:20 PM
What is even worse, I must have been in la la land, because I did it not once, not twice, but 3 times in row... all almost simultaneously... but still.
I was like, wait what? Where did my balance go?
Oh well. If I win both bets I will be doing really damn well for the year.
But to know you are going to root for Roy, even though he is fat... that means something.
Mr. IWS
03-24-2010, 01:23 PM
I think your on the right side of both bets scientist.
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 01:24 PM
Hoo boy. Well, good luck. I do think those are good fights to bet on. Struve has a striking advantage, but his ability to keep people at bay isn't nearly as good as it could be for someone with his reach. Nelson will get in, take him down, and smother him with fat.
That is the hope. But I am nnot worried about Struve's striking. He hits like a little norwegian milk maid (or whatever nationality he is- insert arrogant American comment). And Roy has a rock for a head. And struve has no takedown defense. And Roy has a grappling advantage. I really see no way for Struve to win, absent coming out as a totally different fighter.
Guida, Huerta, Lauzon, and Din Thomas are no joke. They may not quite be among the very elite in the division, but neither is Stevenson, who you count as "legitimate."
Not sure where you're going with this or what your standard of "legitimacy" is.
Cmon, clearly I'm just picking and choosing like he was doing. Where's your brain at these days?
And besides, Din Thomas really? His knee blew out and then Florian choked him out. Not something I'd be bragging about.
And damn scientist, that's fucking terrible. Every time I've made a bookmaker bet I've had to stop and think. That shit is so confusing.
GL
But to know you are going to root for Roy, even though he is fat... that means something.
That's special. . .
I may even do a Nelson-Florian parlay in your honor.
But to know you are going to root for Roy, even though he is fat... that means something.
That's special. . .
I may even do a Nelson-Florian parlay in your honor.
Are you going to donate the winnings to him if it pays out?
Cmon, clearly I'm just picking and choosing like he was doing. Where's your brain at these days?
Oh, my bad. I didn't get it. In fact, I didn't even realize it was you who said it. That new avatar is throwing me off. When the fuck did you decide to abandon the Way of the Ninja? You didn't even consult us or anything. . .
Are you going to donate the winnings to him if it pays out?
Well if it pays out then he'll be sitting pretty so . . . no. . .
But I will say thanks.
And congratulate him on avoiding disaster.
I am just trying to convince myself, because I actually made a horrible mistake and bet like half of my bankroll on Florian and Nelson. Literally, if one of them loses, it will set me back like 2 years.
Do you know on Bookmaker when you place your bets and you can either choose "risk amount" or "win amount"? Teh default is "wager" which is equivalent to win amount. I buzzed through the process and instead of betting 5units, I bet to win 5units on BOTH guys. So @ -290, I have to bet 29 units to win 5u on each. It was after my 109 loss, so I adjusted my bankroll, and I literally have like 55% of my entire stake on those fights.
I am confident in Roy, but I am sick about the Florian fight. So I am trying to make myself feel better.
If I had an uncomfortable amount of on three fighters I'd open a matchbook account and dump off everything I did want. I'm 95% sure you could get the exact line on the other side and wouldnt have to worry about losing a dime.
If interested I'll you out if not GL man ::handshake::
Svino
03-24-2010, 01:43 PM
What is even worse, I must have been in la la land, because I did it not once, not twice, but 3 times in row... all almost simultaneously... but still.
Three times? Uh oh. OK, so we've got Florian and Nelson. What's the third bet? Or is it too horrible to mention?
Ludo don't be that guy that goes he steroid route. It's cheap and vindictive and all those guys were later beat up by pride fighters in the ufc.
He'll defend Lesnar next and say he never touched a Roid
Actually Machida entered the UFC about a month before Pride was sold to the Fertittas, so...
Also, he was fighting in Japan in all through 2004-2005, just not in Pride. He was fighting in K-1 and Inoki Bon Ba Ye. So since he wasn't fighting in Pride when he could have been, and was fighting in the UFC before most of these Pride fighters came in, that would sort of make him a UFC fighter by default.
I already said if you put Rampage, Wanderlei, Hendo, and Shogun up head to head against Chuck, Tito, Randy, and Franklin it wouldn't even be close 4 years ago. However four years ago we had alot of differences at work here. A ring vs an Octagon, stomps allowed in one but not in the other, steroids permitted in one and not the other.
I'll be honest I was just arguing and messing with you last night because I couldnt sleep . ::handshake::
Three times? Uh oh. OK, so we've got Florian and Nelson. What's the third bet? Or is it too horrible to mention?
I was wondering the same thing. . .
Mr. IWS
03-24-2010, 01:53 PM
Hopefully it aint on Gomi or Struve
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 01:59 PM
I am just trying to convince myself, because I actually made a horrible mistake and bet like half of my bankroll on Florian and Nelson. Literally, if one of them loses, it will set me back like 2 years.
Do you know on Bookmaker when you place your bets and you can either choose "risk amount" or "win amount"? Teh default is "wager" which is equivalent to win amount. I buzzed through the process and instead of betting 5units, I bet to win 5units on BOTH guys. So @ -290, I have to bet 29 units to win 5u on each. It was after my 109 loss, so I adjusted my bankroll, and I literally have like 55% of my entire stake on those fights.
I am confident in Roy, but I am sick about the Florian fight. So I am trying to make myself feel better.
If I had an uncomfortable amount of on three fighters I'd open a matchbook account and dump off everything I did want. I'm 95% sure you could get the exact line on the other side and wouldnt have to worry about losing a dime.
If interested I'll you out if not GL man ::handshake::
I did consider hedging it out... I don't have a matchbook account though. And I have accounts at 5dimes and Bodog, neither of which I ever use. I was hoping the line would move a little though, because as it sits now, I would take a pretty solid hit on the hedge- I got both @ -290. I thought Roy would go to like -400 but he never moved much. Struve is +250. I still might do it, but I have been waiting for the last minute... that and I am a bit of an action junkie, so it doesn't really bother me much.
My gambling bankroll is pretty tiny compared to the effort I put into it- but it is more about defining my advantage and planning my dream of never working again than it is about money. I have decided that if I have one more year of solid returns, I am going to start funding it for real though.
If you think I could get someone to give me +290 on Matchbook, then it might be time to open an account there.
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 02:16 PM
What is even worse, I must have been in la la land, because I did it not once, not twice, but 3 times in row... all almost simultaneously... but still.
Three times? Uh oh. OK, so we've got Florian and Nelson. What's the third bet? Or is it too horrible to mention?
it was on Maia, but since he is +400, it actually did not make a difference, it was under what I was going to bet anyway. I wanted to put 2u on him, which would obviously return more than 5u. Since I bet to win 5u, I actually had to add to my bet.
All it would take is someone wanting -290 on Roy and Florian to get you hedged out. I tell matchbook to get the lines up and then I'll watch the lines . You're bascially the bookie on matchbook .Worst case is you could put up +290 on both and no one take them and your still out nothing
MMA_scientist
03-24-2010, 02:33 PM
All it would take is someone wanting -290 on Roy and Florian to get you hedged out. I tell matchbook to get the lines up and then I'll watch the lines . You're bascially the bookie on matchbook .Worst case is you could put up +290 on both and no one take them and your still out nothing
Yeah, keep an eye on it for me. I need to get a Matchbook account.
Thewiseman
03-24-2010, 03:20 PM
So far I have 5.5u on Florian to win 2u, and have 2u at risk with him in a parlay.
Have 6u on Okami in a parlay.
Have 2u on Siver to win 3.18u
Ipickdeeznuts2win
03-24-2010, 06:40 PM
I will be taking:
Kenflo - 6U
Country - 6U
Pearson - 5U
Ok bye
Actually Machida entered the UFC about a month before Pride was sold to the Fertittas, so...
Also, he was fighting in Japan in all through 2004-2005, just not in Pride. He was fighting in K-1 and Inoki Bon Ba Ye. So since he wasn't fighting in Pride when he could have been, and was fighting in the UFC before most of these Pride fighters came in, that would sort of make him a UFC fighter by default.
I already said if you put Rampage, Wanderlei, Hendo, and Shogun up head to head against Chuck, Tito, Randy, and Franklin it wouldn't even be close 4 years ago. However four years ago we had alot of differences at work here. A ring vs an Octagon, stomps allowed in one but not in the other, steroids permitted in one and not the other.
I'll be honest I was just arguing and messing with you last night because I couldnt sleep . ::handshake::
It's cool man. I love a good debate that doesn't turn into a mudslinging contest.
MMA_scientist
03-25-2010, 02:52 PM
Siver was on Unleashed last night. He was going about even with Paul Kelly until he caught him with that spinning kick. I think I am going to take Pearson too for 3u.
Siver was on Unleashed last night. He was going about even with Paul Kelly until he caught him with that spinning kick. I think I am going to take Pearson too for 3u.
I just did a little research on Siver. I watched his fights with Kelly and Hartt. I also rewatched Pearson v Riley.
I think the value here is probably on Siver, especially if his line climbs any higher. (I DEFINITELY would've been on him at +225 when Bookmaker opened him if I had known who the fuck he was.) I think he seems pretty slick in the stand up and appears to also have good takedown defense and even a solid ground game.
I like Pearson. He's a little bulldog who seems to have the ability to bully his opponents, but I actually am thinking about a play on Siver here.
Against any other up and coming fighter at 155(except Escudero and Etim) I'd go with Siver. But I just don't see how he wins this fight against Pearson. Pearson's striking may not be as crisp as it can be one day but he's no slouch. His takedowns are pretty good and his ground game is above average. Siver has that nasty left counter hook but not a whole lot else. Not everyone is going to keep rushing straight ahead with no angles like Paul Kelly did. I don't see Siver able to work that "sit back and crank you with My left counter" tactic all night with Pearson. Pearson will just fake a lunge and change levels or smother him against the fence.
Siver has that nasty left counter hook but not a whole lot else.
Well hold up now. He has finished 2 of 3 UFC fights with a spinning back kick. Also, I'm not sure of the specifics, but I know Joe Rogan mentioned that Siver was a kickboxing champ in Germany as well.
Not everyone is going to keep rushing straight ahead with no angles like Paul Kelly did. I don't see Siver able to work that "sit back and crank you with My left counter" tactic all night with Pearson. Pearson will just fake a lunge and change levels or smother him against the fence.
I understand the "smother him against the fence" sentiment. That's what Pearson does. But I actually think it won't be as easy as you might expect against Siver. He's a powerful guy and seems to have good grappling ability. I'm not sure that he'll be so easily controlled.
MMA_scientist
03-26-2010, 09:29 AM
Siver was on Unleashed last night. He was going about even with Paul Kelly until he caught him with that spinning kick. I think I am going to take Pearson too for 3u.
I just did a little research on Siver. I watched his fights with Kelly and Hartt. I also rewatched Pearson v Riley.
I think the value here is probably on Siver, especially if his line climbs any higher. (I DEFINITELY would've been on him at +225 when Bookmaker opened him if I had known who the fuck he was.) I think he seems pretty slick in the stand up and appears to also have good takedown defense and even a solid ground game.
I like Pearson. He's a little bulldog who seems to have the ability to bully his opponents, but I actually am thinking about a play on Siver here.
Really? I wasn't very impressed with him. I think Pearson is going to just go Guida on him. Pearson has a relentless pace, and seems to just walk through everything. @ -188, I like Pearson. @ +225, I also like Siver. But he is only +148. No way I would take him for that.
Really? I wasn't very impressed with him. I think Pearson is going to just go Guida on him. Pearson has a relentless pace, and seems to just walk through everything. @ -188, I like Pearson. @ +225, I also like Siver. But he is only +148. No way I would take him for that.
Hmm. . .
I don't know, man. Even at +148 I might like Siver (though he's at +165 at 5dimes.) If I was going to bet Pearson, I'd probably need -125 or so.
Thewiseman
03-26-2010, 02:03 PM
I would take Siver at even. He is winning this fight 60% IMO. I have 2u on him.
I just rewatched the fight between Siver and Mohr. In the words of GSP "I'm not impressed by his performance". You can make a case that he won round one because he rocked Mohr early on, but he spent most of the remainder of that round on his back with Mohr mounting him, he managed to get half guard and guard before they got stood up. Second round was all Mohr. Mohr picked him apart with counters. In round three Mohr wasn't quite as dominant but he was still working Siver pretty good until Siver started to set something up. He finally unleashed the spinning back kick that ended the fight but if it hadn't been for that he very well may have lost the fight.
I just don't see Siver being able to implement this kind of stuff against Pearson.
MMA_scientist
03-26-2010, 03:29 PM
I just don't see Siver being able to implement this kind of stuff against Pearson.
agreed. I think Pearson is just a flat out better fighter. He was having trouble with Paul Kelley as well. I am sorry, but Paul Kelley is horrible.
agreed. I think Pearson is just a flat out better fighter. He was having trouble with Paul Kelley as well. I am sorry, but Paul Kelley is horrible.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. Paul Kelly is a solid mid-level fighter. He almost finished Marcus Davis, and say what you will about Davis, but he's a good fighter, much better than someone like Pearson as this point in their careers.
MMA_scientist
03-26-2010, 03:44 PM
agreed. I think Pearson is just a flat out better fighter. He was having trouble with Paul Kelley as well. I am sorry, but Paul Kelley is horrible.
I guess we'll have to agree to disagree here. Paul Kelly is a solid mid-level fighter. He almost finished Marcus Davis, and say what you will about Davis, but he's a good fighter, much better than someone like Pearson as this point in their careers.
I guess we are... Paul Kelley wouldnt be champ of the hometown show in my city. There is nothing he does well.
He has not finished a fight in the UFC, take Roli Delgado and Troy Mandaloniz to decisions, and he got stopped in both of his losses, to Siver and Marcis Davis. His best win to date is over fellow middling brit Paul Taylor. He buit his record in the UK = all cans. No way he'd be in the UFC if he wasn't british. No freakin way.
poopoo333
03-26-2010, 11:02 PM
So scientist, you have Veach over Kelly then? :)
MMA_scientist
03-29-2010, 01:25 PM
Here is the breakdown from SPX's best friend:
http://www.mmamafia.net/mma-news/featured-mma/4602-ufn-21-florian-vs-gomi-breakdown.html
I get a lot out of the breakdowns...
I am considering making a play on Tibau now.
^^I don't understand how his writeup makes it sound like Gomi has zero chance to win the fight, then he sets his line at -185? Hell, I think he might win and even I think that's a fair line. I also still don't understand what the hell 'split scoring' means.
I agree that Siver/Pearson is closer than the line indicates, as I've said before.
MMA_scientist
03-29-2010, 02:34 PM
^^I don't understand how his writeup makes it sound like Gomi has zero chance to win the fight, then he sets his line at -185? Hell, I think he might win and even I think that's a fair line. I also still don't understand what the hell 'split scoring' means.
I have never understood that either. He sets his lines way too tightly IMO. And I have no idea what split scoring means, I think it has something to do with fantasy mma games.
Final plays
5u to win 8u parlay on Florian, Nelson, and Okami
2.7u to win 5.6u on Uno
Final plays
5u to win 8u parlay on Florian, Nelson, and Okami
Good luck. Hefty amount of units on a 3 man parlay.
2.7u to win 5.6u on Uno
Why Uno? I'm also considering an Uno play at the current line, but I really think he's too damn small to be fighting the welterweight Gleison Tibau.
Well I'm still convinced his grappling and submission skills are enough to carry him a way's through the mid level opposition for the most part. In the last two years he's choked out Ishida, gone the distance with Aoki, Spencer Fisher, and Fabricio Camoes(the guy who Batman just choked out the other night). He's getting up there in age but he's still got the tools to be a fighter at his age. This fight is made for Uno, since Gleison Tibau has a long history of going to decision. He's not the most explosive fighter in the division, and he's likely to give Uno 15 minutes to pull something off. That combined with the line are odds I feel good about.
I am kind of on the fence.
Uno's performance against Fisher really was kind of uninspiring. Spencer Fisher is a good fighter, but he's nothing more than a mid-level guy and he always will be. Uno should've won that fight convincingly.
I did think his performance against Camoes was good overall, and in fact, I think he won that fight even WITHOUT the point deduction, much less with it. The fact that it was a draw was bullshit and the fact that Camoes would've won without the point deduction was mega-bullshit.
As for Uno's sub skills, I really doubt they'll make much of a difference here. Tibau has only been subbed once in his career and I think he can stay out of danger.
I honestly think it's going to come down to who's the best wrestler. If they were the same size, then Uno should win, I'd think. But not only is Tibau OVERSIZED in the division, but Uno is UNDERSIZED. This is worse than Edgar VS Maynard in that regard, I think.
If I can get Uno at +200 I might make a play. Not sure. I like Tibau in this fight, but his line is unacceptable.
Uno's at +207 at Betus.com and +230 at 5dimes.
Tibau is going to gas, and were this a 5 round fight like grown men should be fighting, Uno easily takes the win. As it stands he's probably going to lose 29-28 and be in control at the end.
He won the Fisher fight too IMO.
Uno's at +207 at Betus.com and +230 at 5dimes.
Looks like +240 at Bodog. That might be worth a little play. Maybe just enough to make a unit.
What's everyone think about Torres/Volkmann?
I'm thinking Torres might be a good play if he's around even odds.
Johnny Unreliable
03-29-2010, 05:18 PM
First post. I regularly post over on MMA scientists blog and lurk here but I thought I'd finally make an account.
Was wondering if North Carolina's MMA rule set plays a factor in anyone's decision on Tibau/Uno play? In NC they have two weigh in's one the day before and one the day of the fight and you can't weigh in more than 13 pounds heavier than the day before. Now Tibau cuts a ton of weight, I swear he makes the cut from at least 170-175. I was considering waiting until the weigh ins to see how he looked. If he looks smaller than usual a play on Uno might not be a bad value considering Tibau's power grappling style. Although it could also fix his 3rd round cardio problem as well I'm not sure.
Other than that I'm 5u on both Nelson and Florian. Considering Okami as well but the line sucks.
Thanks for all the great discussion guys. Been lurking here for awhile.
^^Good question. But another question is will they actually enforce it? The UFC pretty much does what it wants usually.
First post. I regularly post over on MMA scientists blog and lurk here but I thought I'd finally make an account.
Was wondering if North Carolina's MMA rule set plays a factor in anyone's decision on Tibau/Uno play? In NC they have two weigh in's one the day before and one the day of the fight and you can't weigh in more than 13 pounds heavier than the day before. Now Tibau cuts a ton of weight, I swear he makes the cut from at least 170-175. I was considering waiting until the weigh ins to see how he looked. If he looks smaller than usual a play on Uno might not be a bad value considering Tibau's power grappling style. Although it could also fix his 3rd round cardio problem as well I'm not sure.
Other than that I'm 5u on both Nelson and Florian. Considering Okami as well but the line sucks.
Thanks for all the great discussion guys. Been lurking here for awhile.
Welcome to the forum. We're always looking for good posters. (Of course, that means if you're not a good poster then GET THE FUCK OUT NOW! j/k)
Someone over on Sherdog actually just reminded me of North Carolina's rule. I think that's very interesting and a very good point. Not sure how accurate it is, but on Wikipedia it says that Tibau has weighed "up to 183 pounds by the time he enters the cage." So I wonder if this is going to be a particularly hard cut for him, and if he's going to be drained and just not feeling good for this fight. (Think Griffin/Franca.)
As for waiting, I'm not sure that's the best idea. It's a gamble, but there are probably others thinking what you're thinking, and a lot of times if a fighter doesn't look good at the weigh ins or if they miss weight then the lines take a hit.
Mr. IWS
03-29-2010, 05:46 PM
First post. I regularly post over on MMA scientists blog and lurk here but I thought I'd finally make an account.
Was wondering if North Carolina's MMA rule set plays a factor in anyone's decision on Tibau/Uno play? In NC they have two weigh in's one the day before and one the day of the fight and you can't weigh in more than 13 pounds heavier than the day before. Now Tibau cuts a ton of weight, I swear he makes the cut from at least 170-175. I was considering waiting until the weigh ins to see how he looked. If he looks smaller than usual a play on Uno might not be a bad value considering Tibau's power grappling style. Although it could also fix his 3rd round cardio problem as well I'm not sure.
Other than that I'm 5u on both Nelson and Florian. Considering Okami as well but the line sucks.
Thanks for all the great discussion guys. Been lurking here for awhile.
Welcome aboard bro! GL on the picks. Im leaning Florini's way too.
I think they'll enforce the rules, seeing as they are trying to get into other states that are reluctant to allow MMA. They did just abide by NJSAC when they forfeited 12.5% of Markhams purse to Diaz for coming in overweight. I see no reason not to enforce these funky ass rules, as stupid as they may be. If a fighter can make the cut at weigh ins I see no reason to penalize him by putting a max on his gain through rehydration and whatnot between then and fight time. If Thiago Alves and Rumble want to cut from 210 and 220 to 170 then let them do it if they can manage.
I don't think Torres is a good bet against Volkmann. Christmas went to decision with Paulo Thiago, plus he fights mostly at 170, Yeah he got choked out by Martin Kampmann but he's been fighting better opposition in those two than Torres who dropped a decision to Guillard. I just don't like the way Torres carries himself on the feet. He charges in swinging wildly(just like he did with Guillard) and I just think he's going to get caught sooner than later.
He charges in swinging wildly(just like he did with Guillard) and I just think he's going to get caught sooner than later.
Yeah, but not against Volkmann who has some of the shittiest standup I've ever seen and who gets dropped in every fight. (Or at least his two in the UFC.)
Plus, what about the issue of this being the first time he's made the cut? That seems to fuck a lot of fighters up. . .
He wasn't a huge Welterweight to begin with, I don't think it will hurt him too much to be honest. He seemed to make the cut to 170 without too much difficulty at all.
Anyone else wondering where the rest of the lines are, by the way?
Anyone else wondering where the rest of the lines are, by the way?
Right as I say they they get posted.
And I'm not really happy. Torres at -237 against Volkmann. I was not expecting that.
Svino
03-29-2010, 09:36 PM
I'm in favor of any rule that minimizes the effect of weight-cutting. As I see it, weight classes were made to give smaller athletes the chance to compete, not to make a weight-cutting a vital skill to success in the sport. Also, huge weight swings aren't healthy for the fighters.
I'm in favor of any rule that minimizes the effect of weight-cutting. As I see it, weight classes were made to give smaller athletes the chance to compete, not to make a weight-cutting a vital skill to success in the sport. Also, huge weight swings aren't healthy for the fighters.
These are my thoughts. I hate that "weight cutting is a skill" mindset. Weight classes are designed to match up equally sized fighters. Weight cutting sucks.
Also, huge weight swings aren't healthy for the fighters.
Neither is fighting without being properly hydrated.
Neither is fighting without being properly hydrated.
Don't cut weight and you don't have to worry about it.
Svino
03-29-2010, 10:03 PM
Also, huge weight swings aren't healthy for the fighters.
Neither is fighting without being properly hydrated.
Yeah, that's the catch. How to do this without having guys decide that it's best to fight dehydrated. Seems like you would have to weigh them at several points before the fight if you really wanted to make sure they weren't bouncing around. I would think the fighters would be in favor of it though; don't they hate having to go through all that weight-cutting stuff?
I would think the fighters would be in favor of it though; don't they hate having to go through all that weight-cutting stuff?
I've thought about this, too.
It seems like everyone does it because they know everyone else is going to do it, and so for the most part they STILL come into the cage around the same size (the exceptions are obviously those who are notorious for doing otherwise, like Rumble and Tibau).
So if everyone would just agree NOT to do it, then they could just come in at their real weight and it would be the same shit, they'd just feel better.
SPX, that sounds like a real nice MMA utopia there, but it's not realistic at all. Besides, despite the fact that fighters are always looking for any advantage possible, there are still serious logistical obstacles with getting rid of weight cutting. How exactly do you define "real weight"? Is it what a guy balloons up to when he's not training? Or is it what a guy weighs at the end of his training camp?
It really doesn't matter either way. Due to fighters not all being the same person and the small number of weight classes, there will always be size differences. What if one guy weighs 163 at the end of his camp and another guy is 172? What do you do there? Do you allow the guy to cut 2 pounds and fight at WW with the guy who should be cutting to LW? Or you do make him fight at MW against the guy who's 185? It really doesn't matter, you're never going to eliminate weight cutting and size differences. It is what it is, which is part of the sport.
And to be honest, I really don't see it as that big of a deal. I think size advantages are extremely overrated. How often do you see a guy drop a weight class so he can have the advantage of being "bigger" and not do any better? BJ Penn beats up most welterweights, Silva beats up most light heavyweights. Obviously size is a factor, but skill determines much more. It's a tremendous effort to fix something that isn't broken, and probably won't even work.
Anyways, that's just my take on it. I don't expect anyone to agree. Sorry for the ramble.
I know one thing fighters that dont cut weight have way longer careers. The up and down shit makes you older a lot faster.It also makes your hair fall out
I know one thing fighters that dont cut weight have way longer careers. The up and down shit makes you older a lot faster.It also makes your hair fall out
Nearly all fighters cut weight in modern MMA. Some obviously much more than others but I don't think that kind of blanket statement is very accurate unless we're talking actual numbers.
Svino
03-29-2010, 10:31 PM
Fighters will do whatever they have to do to win fights under the rules that the promotion / athletic commissions set for them. If you want to free them from the burden of having to cut weight, you actually have to set up the rules and weighings so that they can't get away with it. Otherwise, each guy will have to do it to keep up with the other guys.
poopoo333
03-29-2010, 10:43 PM
+175 or more on Volkmann when the lines go up on 5dimes, I will be throwing 0.5 units down on him. I think Emerson is a good underdog bet, and I like Winner at -165.. but I have to watch some of Oliveira's footage again
I know one thing fighters that dont cut weight have way longer careers. The up and down shit makes you older a lot faster.It also makes your hair fall out
Nearly all fighters cut weight in modern MMA. Some obviously much more than others but I don't think that kind of blanket statement is very accurate unless we're talking actual numbers.
ok i'm wrong ,I have no idea what I'm talking about ::handshake::
I know one thing fighters that dont cut weight have way longer careers. The up and down shit makes you older a lot faster.It also makes your hair fall out
Nearly all fighters cut weight in modern MMA. Some obviously much more than others but I don't think that kind of blanket statement is very accurate unless we're talking actual numbers.
ok i'm wrong ,I have no idea what I'm talking about ::handshake::
LOL right. Because that's exactly what I said.
Its a prove fact gaining alot of weight and then losing alot of weight over and over again slows a persons reflexes and makes their bodies older and more prone to injuries. Now someone with half a brain would realize slower reflexes and a body that is breaking down would = not as long of career vs someone that walks around within 5-10 pounds of what they fight at
but again I said half a brain so:
you are right lol ::handshake::
I think size advantages are extremely overrated. How often do you see a guy drop a weight class so he can have the advantage of being "bigger" and not do any better?
I'm not going to quote your entire post, though you make some good points and it was well thought out. I do want to address this, though.
In regard to your first statement, for the most part, it doesn't make a big difference because most guys are still relatively the same size. I think it's really the fighters who take the shit to the extreme--like Tibau, Rumble, and I guess you could even say Lesnar under the circumstances--who obviously win some fights so decisively simply because they're bigger and more powerful. And I'm aware of the whole "weight cutting is just another skill" argument, but honestly I'm like Yeah, some "skill". . .
As for your second point, the thing people fail to realize with this argument is that when guys drop weight, it's not like they just cut more water weight. They actually get smaller. I mean, who's going to argue that Diego Sanchez at WW is as big as Diego Sanchez at LW? Or Mike Swick's another example I could use. So a lot of times dropping weight like that is kind of for nothing, it seems to me. The biggest reason to jump weight classes is to try to face weaker competition.
+175 or more on Volkmann when the lines go up on 5dimes, I will be throwing 0.5 units down on him. I think Emerson is a good underdog bet, and I like Winner at -165.. but I have to watch some of Oliveira's footage again
I saw that on Volkmann. I'm really hoping that Torres' line will get down to something acceptable. I really see Torres taking this fight, but I'm not overly confident. Volkmann is a no-gi grappling champ, after all.
I have also considered Emerson. Lentz looks tough though. I watched his fight with Oliveira and he is crafty and skilled. I'm trying to find his fight with Tavares, though. I can't seem to find it anywhere.
As for Winner/Oliveira, I think Winner should win if he can stop the takedowns. Oliveira looked like a good wrestler in the Lentz fight, but he also gasses early. How good is Winner's takedown defense? I haven't seen one of his fights in a while.
Yes and no. Some guys cut weight because they are small in their division. Diego was a half example of that. He was a small welterweight but it really just boils down to him wanting to have a shot at a title in the end. Guys like Spencer Fisher though drop because it's more natural for them. Fisher was a successful Welterweight but he just felt better fighting at 155.
I think size advantages are extremely overrated. How often do you see a guy drop a weight class so he can have the advantage of being "bigger" and not do any better?
I'm not going to quote your entire post, though you make some good points and it was well thought out. I do want to address this, though.
In regard to your first statement, for the most part, it doesn't make a big difference because most guys are still relatively the same size. I think it's really the fighters who take the shit to the extreme--like Tibau, Rumble, and I guess you could even say Lesnar under the circumstances--who obviously win some fights so decisively simply because they're bigger and more powerful. And I'm aware of the whole "weight cutting is just another skill" argument, but honestly I'm like Yeah, some "skill". . .
As for your second point, the thing people fail to realize with this argument is that when guys drop weight, it's not like they just cut more water weight. They actually get smaller. I mean, who's going to argue that Diego Sanchez at WW is as big as Diego Sanchez at LW? Or Mike Swick's another example I could use. So a lot of times dropping weight like that is kind of for nothing, it seems to me. The biggest reason to jump weight classes is to try to face weaker competition.
Fair enough.
But of course, guys who really take it to the extreme like Rumble and Tibau, how well are they doing?
Fair enough.
But of course, guys who really take it to the extreme like Rumble and Tibau, how well are they doing?
Yeah, it's gay though. I mean, sure, it's "by the rules" and whatnot, but it sucks to see some giant motherfucker like Tibau win fights ONLY because he's bigger. He's not even that great of a fighter. If he was the same size as everyone else he'd probably be cut by now.
Another example that pissed me off was Pulver/Vazquez. I don't know if Pulver looked like a BW or if Vazquez looked like an LW, but something was obviously fucked up there.
Pulver lost that fight because he is getting older and losing a step. His game was never really suited for change. The days of Sprawl and Brawl are done. You cannot survive on that alone in MMA anymore. Guys are getting way too skilled at Striking and developing all around games too good to he held off by Sprawl and brawl no matter how good it is.
Pulver lost that fight because he is getting older and losing a step. His game was never really suited for change. The days of Sprawl and Brawl are done. You cannot survive on that alone in MMA anymore. Guys are getting way too skilled at Striking and developing all around games too good to he held off by Sprawl and brawl no matter how good it is.
Pulver was undersized in that fight. Just go watch it. Pulver looks like a regular guy. Vazquez looks like a roided out monster. (Not to say that he was . . . but in comparison).
As for sprawl and brawl, well, if you can't be taken down then it still works. Seems to work for JDS.
Pulver was undersized in most of his fights, he always fought at 145 even against 155lb fighters and above. I realize Vazquez was bigger but that isn't to say his ground skills weren't far and away better than Pulvers. Pulver has simply lost a step and cannot compete with all these young guys who have a complete and well rounded skillset. Size has nothing to do with his lack of diversity and youth.
JDS isn't Sprawl and Brawl, he's more of a KO you before you can set anything else up kind of fighter. They haven't matched him up against anyone with Competent takedowns yet.
Pulver was undersized in most of his fights, he always fought at 145 even against 155lb fighters and above. I realize Vazquez was bigger but that isn't to say his ground skills weren't far and away better than Pulvers. Pulver has simply lost a step and cannot compete with all these young guys who have a complete and well rounded skillset. Size has nothing to do with his lack of diversity and youth.
War Pulver!
JDS isn't Sprawl and Brawl, he's more of a KO you before you can set anything else up kind of fighter. They haven't matched him up against anyone with Competent takedowns yet.
I agree for the most part. Gonzaga was a step in the right direction in that regard, but he's not at the level of Lesnar or Carwin in regard to takedowns.
Still, the fact that Gonzaga took him down and he popped right back up is impressive and shows us he's not completely clueless in regard to dealing with takedowns. He has been training with the Nogs after all.
Oh I agree he isn't going to respond "What's takedowns?" if you asked him, but I still think he's relatively untested there. We won't know for a while though most likely. Since Reports say Cain is next in line and will take on the Lesnar/Carwin winner while JDS fights someone else in his rise. Training at Blackhouse can't leave JDS with nothing for a ground game, but we just don't know yet because he's so damn efficient at knocking mofo's out.
MMA_scientist
03-30-2010, 10:09 AM
I hate to interrupt...
but I think Volkmann can beat Torres. Torres is most likely going to want to grapple with Volkmann... Volkmann has not shown it in the UFC yet, but he can grapple. He was a 3 time all american div. 1 college wrestler at minnesota and he has translated to some submission grappling success. He is a better pure wrestler than almost anyone @ LW in the UFC (that's right, better than Maynard, Guida, Sherk, Edgar). he was a big 10 champion at 165. Then he won the FILA the World Grappling title (which sounds really impressive, but FILA is not a major sub grappling org yet).
He is being criminally underrated based on losses to huge ww's. Thiago is quite thick and Kampmann was @ MW until recently.
I am not saying he will win, but I expect him to look quite a bit different with a smaller opponent.
MMA_scientist
03-30-2010, 10:30 AM
talked myself into it .5u on Volkmann @ +181
poopoo333
03-30-2010, 10:39 AM
talked myself into it .5u on Volkmann @ +181
I was thinking of taking him @+190, but I am still deciding if I should wait or not. People don't seem to realize his first two fights in the UFC were against top 10 WWs, and they were on fairly short notice. Volkmann also was fairly competitive with Thiago, and IIRC had Kampmann in some trouble before getting subbed.
edit: Also, Guillard is known to be choked out by decent grapplers, and Torres didn't get to do that. Just a thought.
^^i think that's more a reflection on Guillards improvements than it is on Torres. I was impressed with him. I think this fight goes to a decision and could see it either way.
poopoo333
03-30-2010, 10:51 AM
^^i think that's more a reflection on Guillards improvements than it is on Torres. I was impressed with him. I think this fight goes to a decision and could see it either way.
Yeah maybe, but he is acting like he will be fighting for the title soon because he is now with Greg Jackson. He was with Jackson for a month for the Torres fight, and acted like that month has made him into a new fighter. Seems like he is trying to build some confidence up.
MMA_scientist
03-30-2010, 10:52 AM
Guillard sucks.
poopoo333
03-30-2010, 10:54 AM
Guillard sucks.
You have to be good to lunge off the fence into a perfect guillotine
poopoo333
03-30-2010, 10:58 AM
Final plays:
3u on Nelson @-300
3u on Florian @-280
0.5u on Linhares @+390
1u on Volkmann @+190
3u on Winner @ -180
^^i think that's more a reflection on Guillards improvements than it is on Torres. I was impressed with him. I think this fight goes to a decision and could see it either way.
I agree. Guillard has looked better than ever. He beat Tibau (by a razor thin margin, admittedly) and beat Torres. True, he got choked out by Diaz, but BJJ is Diaz's thing.
poopoo333
03-30-2010, 01:34 PM
SHIT!
Volkmann is at @ +220 right now and I figured he would get worse then +190 when I took him.
Final plays... Again
5u parlay to win 8u on Florian, Nelson, and Okami
2.7u to win 5.6u on Uno
2u to win 1.4u on Lentz
1u to win 2u on Volkman
MMA_scientist
03-30-2010, 02:39 PM
Guillard sucks.
Lame.
What? He does.
Just my opinion but the Florian line is too high.Gomi maynot be the guy he once was but how good is Florian?
Everyone say he #2 to Penn but what does that really mean? Is Gomi a better wrestler?Is Gomi stronger and going to be able to out muscle Florian? I think theres to many ifs to lay -300 .I dont lay that kind of line unless I'm sure of something.I also think the Roy line is too inflated but believe Roy has a better shot at winning the Flo
MMA_scientist
03-30-2010, 03:04 PM
Just my opinion but the Florian line is too high.Gomi maynot be the guy he once was but how good is Florian?
Everyone say he #2 to Penn but what does that really mean? Is Gomi a better wrestler?Is Gomi stronger and going to be able to out muscle Florian? I think theres to many ifs to lay -300 .I dont lay that kind of line unless I'm sure of something.I also think the Roy line is too inflated but believe Roy has a better shot at winning the Flo
I agree a little on the Florian line... but I don't really know what advantage Gomi brings to the fight. I think he will get beaten up no matter where the fight goes.
I expect it to be close for about 3 minutes until Florian figures him out and then beats him silly in rd. 2.
I feel big country still has value. I see no real way for Struve to win. How can Struve win? I think Hardy was more likely to beat GSP than Struve is to beat Roy.
Yeah, Gomi has nowhere to bring this fight that is "his world" compared to Florian. As far as Nelson goes, Struve is dead in the water here. Nelson isn't Buentello and doesn't gas out near as fast. He has one shot KO power, and a great ground game with a ton of experience. Struve is literally being fed to Nelson at this point.
Mr. IWS
03-30-2010, 06:33 PM
Strategy for Struve Tommorow night?
http://i415.photobucket.com/albums/pp237/rmzabel/ufc21.jpg
Most everyone said Connen had "no chance" against Marquardt and laid between -300 and -375.
I might be too conservative but for me to lay -300 or more I have to truely believe a guy has no chance and for me think someone has no chance is has to be a GSP-Hardy type fight but most of them arent -300 anymore.Now if you really think a guy has no chance then its a good beat but if you have a lot of ifs then its not.I have a bunch of ifs on this fight so its a no bet for me
Maybe I'm just too chicken or just too conservative but I just dont like laying alot of juice
Strategy for Struve Tommorow night?
http://i415.photobucket.com/albums/pp237/rmzabel/ufc21.jpg
::lmao::
Weigh in pictures.I'm to lazy to post them here
http://mmajunkie.com/news/18509/ufc-fight-night-21-weigh-in-photos-an-mmajunkie-com-image-gallery.mma?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+mmajunkie+%28MMAjunkie.com+Fe ed%29&utm_content=Twitter
I find that I'm not having any really strong feelings about this card. . .
Fuck, I just realized this shit's coming on early as hell!
I won't even be home by the time the it starts!
Mr. IWS
03-31-2010, 11:20 AM
I find that I'm not having any really strong feelings about this card. . .
Im with ya. I do like Florian and Nelson, but just cant pull the trigger.
Im with ya. I do like Florian and Nelson, but just cant pull the trigger.
I was gonna do a Florian/Nelson parlay but the line's been driven way up. I was actually thinking it might drop closer to fight time. Nelson at -450 on Bodog? What the fuck is that about?
Still thinking about putting some small bets out there on Uno, Volkmann, Siver and Emerson.
Mr. IWS
03-31-2010, 11:50 AM
On Struve/Nelson
I keep going back to the Buentello/Struve fight. Struve could not put away a 1-dimentional old man with no cardio. I dont see how he will be able to do anything to beat Roy. That said, Im being a chicken about it and wont bet.
The only way I see Struve winning is to get some crazy sub (triangle?) with his long frame, but I expect Roy to keep it standing and bang out a win.
poopoo333
03-31-2010, 12:50 PM
This sucks. I am going to be at work for these fights so I will have no idea who is winning the undercard fights.
Thewiseman
03-31-2010, 01:25 PM
Parlay GSP(win), Palhares(win), Okami, Florian, Hughes, and Anderson Silva 2u to win 5.25u
Parlay GSP(win), Okami, Hughes, and Silva 4u to win 3.5u
So I have 6u riding on Okami with nothing to win tonight.
Florian 10.8u to win 4u
So thats 12.8u to win 4u tonight
Siver 2u to win 3.2u
Thewiseman
03-31-2010, 01:36 PM
Parlay GSP(win), Palhares(win), Okami, Florian, Hughes, and Anderson Silva 2u to win 5.25u
Parlay GSP(win), Okami, Hughes, and Silva 4u to win 3.5u
So I have 6u riding on Okami with nothing to win tonight.
Florian 10.8u to win 4u
So thats 12.8u to win 4u tonight
Siver 2u to win 3.2u
Siver/Pearson over 1 1/2 rds. 1.58u to win 1u
This sucks. I am going to be at work for these fights so I will have no idea who is winning the undercard fights.
Twitter bro.
Does this shit start at 5pm and then is replayed at 8pm?
Does this shit start at 5pm and then is replayed at 8pm?
Undercard, homey.
Does this shit start at 5pm and then is replayed at 8pm?
Undercard, homey.
matchbook has the main card going off at 5pm so I was just wonering .Struve is +300 and Gomi is +280 on matchbook.
I'm about to take Gomi at +280. If he trained well for this fight and doesnt gas I say he wins. If Gomi cant get up for this fight he'll never get up for one. Also Florian doesnt impress me at all,he's never beat a top fighter. I say at 3-1 Gomi's worth a shot .Still debating at the moment
Does this shit start at 5pm and then is replayed at 8pm?
Undercard, homey.
matchbook has the main card going off at 5pm so I was just wonering .Struve is +300 and Gomi is +280 on matchbook.
I'm about to take Gomi at +280. If he trained well for this fight and doesnt gas I say he wins. If Gomi cant get up for this fight he'll never get up for one. Also Florian doesnt impress me at all,he's never beat a top fighter. I say at 3-1 Gomi's worth a shot .Still debating at the moment
8pm ET so yeah 5pm PT.
nah matchbook has the whole card going off at 5pm eastern,those fuckers never have a clue
Struve is +300 and Gomi is +280 on matchbook.
I'm about to take Gomi at +280. If he trained well for this fight and doesnt gas I say he wins. If Gomi cant get up for this fight he'll never get up for one. Also Florian doesnt impress me at all,he's never beat a top fighter. I say at 3-1 Gomi's worth a shot .Still debating at the moment
I think a lot of the dogs tonight are being undervalued. I'm considering going through and just dropping .25u on Gomi, Struve, Uno, Siver, Volkmann, and Emerson.
The problem is I'm at work and, even though I can get to my books through the network, I'm not sure if that shit could get tracked and get my ass fired.
MMA_scientist
03-31-2010, 02:16 PM
On Struve/Nelson
I keep going back to the Buentello/Struve fight. Struve could not put away a 1-dimentional old man with no cardio. I dont see how he will be able to do anything to beat Roy. That said, Im being a chicken about it and wont bet.
The only way I see Struve winning is to get some crazy sub (triangle?) with his long frame, but I expect Roy to keep it standing and bang out a win.
Roy will beat Struve's ass on the ground. Roy is a much better grappler than Struve. I think Roy will probably test the hands, and take it down at the end of the round.
I will literally quit gambling for life if Struve subs Nelson.
I can see Struve beating Nelson by outpointing him and Roy being too lazy to change his gameplan... like when Roy fought Justin Wren on TUF. For some reason, he though he was doing well and just kept trading weak shots with Wren.
poopoo333
03-31-2010, 03:14 PM
This sucks. I am going to be at work for these fights so I will have no idea who is winning the undercard fights.
Twitter bro.
No twitter on my phone :(
I have an itouch, but I can never get an internet connection at work.
poopoo333
03-31-2010, 03:17 PM
I think a lot of the dogs tonight are being undervalued. I'm considering going through and just dropping .25u on Gomi, Struve, Uno, Siver, Volkmann, and Emerson.
I think Uno, Volkmann, and Emerson are the best dog bets that you listed.
MMA_scientist
03-31-2010, 03:22 PM
Arb'd out my accidental bets on Florian and Nelson. Struve is +300 on Bodog... But I took a small hit on Gomi @ +275... but it just about evens out because of the Nelson profit. Though I still have 6u on Nelson and 5u on Florian.
SPX, you can go back to rooting against Roy based on your fat-ist ideology.
Arb'd out my accidental bets on Florian and Nelson. Struve is +300 on Bodog... But I took a small hit on Gomi @ +275... but it just about evens out because of the Nelson profit. Though I still have 6u on Nelson and 5u on Florian.
SPX, you can go back to rooting against Roy based on your fat-ist ideology.
Oh, sweet!
Good. Now my loyalties are not divided.
WAR STRUVE! FUCK HIM UP!
I'll say, I was going to be on the edge of my seat for you tonight. . .
Arb'd out my accidental bets on Florian and Nelson. Struve is +300 on Bodog... But I took a small hit on Gomi @ +275... but it just about evens out because of the Nelson profit. Though I still have 6u on Nelson and 5u on Florian.
SPX, you can go back to rooting against Roy based on your fat-ist ideology.
+278 and +300 is what is at matchbook so you did really well without having to open another account ::handshake::
Mr. IWS
03-31-2010, 03:27 PM
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Puts in work tonight!
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Puts in work tonight!
Eating or fighting?
poopoo333
03-31-2010, 03:34 PM
Who wants to keep me updated via text message on the prelim fights? :)
MMA_scientist
03-31-2010, 03:36 PM
Arb'd out my accidental bets on Florian and Nelson. Struve is +300 on Bodog... But I took a small hit on Gomi @ +275... but it just about evens out because of the Nelson profit. Though I still have 6u on Nelson and 5u on Florian.
SPX, you can go back to rooting against Roy based on your fat-ist ideology.
+278 and +300 is what is at matchbook so you did really well without having to open another account ::handshake::
I didn't need to open an acount, I just needed to put some money in it. I have 5dimes and Bodog accounts, but I use them rarely, so I don't keep money there.
That said, Matchbook sounds like the way to go, so I will definately be opening an account there soon.
Who wants to keep me updated via text message on the prelim fights? :)
I'll do it if you're carrier is an SMS partner with Yahoo and I can send them via Messenger.
poopoo333
03-31-2010, 03:48 PM
Who wants to keep me updated via text message on the prelim fights? :)
I'll do it if you're carrier is an SMS partner with Yahoo and I can send them via Messenger.
Alright! Thanks.
Username is jwongsuksm
I had no idea I even had yahoo messenger on my phone.
Alright! Thanks.
Username is jwongsuksm
I had no idea I even had yahoo messenger on my phone.
I may be able to send it just as a regular text if you want to PM me your phone number.
Who wants to keep me updated via text message on the prelim fights? :)
ZY will ,hes one of those play all day on a cell phone guys
Who wants to keep me updated via text message on the prelim fights? :)
ZY will ,hes one of those play all day on a cell phone guys
STOP
hammer time
::hammertime::
Mr. IWS
03-31-2010, 04:08 PM
speaking of cell phones, I finally got one the other day. yay me!
speaking of cell phones, I finally got one the other day. yay me!
My brothers trying to talk me into a droid like he has but I just cant see paying 80+ a month for a cell phone bill
Mr. IWS
03-31-2010, 04:16 PM
I will never do a contract again, after the BS I went through with ATT. I went through metropcs. 40 bucks a month per phone, unlimited talk/text/web. Thats more than what I need.
I will never do a contract again, after the BS I went through with ATT. I went through metropcs. 40 bucks a month per phone, unlimited talk/text/web. Thats more than what I need.
Sounds like a pretty good deal.
I will never do a contract again, after the BS I went through with ATT. I went through metropcs. 40 bucks a month per phone, unlimited talk/text/web. Thats more than what I need.
Virgin mobile does the has the samething w/ no contracts
Yeah I sell phones for a living so I get my sprint phone for $20 a month with 3000 minutes, unlimited text and data
Gomi up to +290 I'm bitting .
Took Gomi .34 units to win 1
Just have a feeling if I'm wrong so be it
MMA_scientist
03-31-2010, 05:37 PM
Gomi up to +290 I'm bitting .
Took Gomi .34 units to win 1
Just have a feeling if I'm wrong so be it
The more I think about it, the more I think I am on the wrond side of the line on this fight. These are exactly the kind of bets I lose- where I just think, "well, he is better" but I have no idea how the fight is going to look. Too many variables, goes against my philosphy.
I hope I am wrong. I do think Florian will win, but I do not think he is a great bet. There is probably value to Gomi @ +290.
Gomi up to +290 I'm bitting .
Took Gomi .34 units to win 1
Just have a feeling if I'm wrong so be it
The more I think about it, the more I think I am on the wrond side of the line on this fight. These are exactly the kind of bets I lose- where I just think, "well, he is better" but I have no idea how the fight is going to look. Too many variables, goes against my philosphy.
I hope I am wrong. I do think Florian will win, but I do not think he is a great bet. There is probably value to Gomi @ +290.
I have alot of ifs on my side."If" Gomi trained well he'll do good,"if" he doesnt gas,"if" he has anything left he'll do good.
I think a prime Gomi wins for sure but this isnt a prime Gomi. I'm just taking a shot I'd bet a full unit on it instead of .3 of a unit if I was confident
GL tonight MMA Scientist ::handshake::
I am sure I'll drop a little something on Gomi just to have some action. I really wish I could get a bet in on Siver, but I won't be home in time.
Undercard is officially in process, by the way.
Brenneman upsets High via unanimous decision.
Harris knocks out Miranda.
(I considered taking Harris because I'm a big fan of his style, but didn't know enough about Miranda to pull the trigger. Sucks.)
Well I was gonna drop .25u on Uno, but never did.
We'll see how that would've worked out here in a minute.
Well fuck.
That might be it for Uno in the UFC.
Well fuck.
That might be it for Uno in the UFC.
how? they keep Jardine around and he never wins
how? they keep Jardine around and he never wins
God keeps your mother around and she gave birth to you.
how? they keep Jardine around and he never wins
God keeps your mother around and she gave birth to you.
Thats because I'm a winner ,Jardine is not
Thats because I'm a winner ,Jardine is not
I'm sure you could kick his ass.
Thats because I'm a winner ,Jardine is not
I'm sure you could kick his ass.
All it would take is a flick of my pinky and he'd be out
All it would take is a flick of my pinky and he'd be out
Keith Jardine says: Go fuck yourself.
http://www.point-spreads.com/images/stories/keith-jardine-mma-fighter.jpg
Svino
03-31-2010, 06:37 PM
Gomi up to +290 I'm bitting .
Took Gomi .34 units to win 1
Just have a feeling if I'm wrong so be it
The more I think about it, the more I think I am on the wrond side of the line on this fight. These are exactly the kind of bets I lose- where I just think, "well, he is better" but I have no idea how the fight is going to look. Too many variables, goes against my philosphy.
I hope I am wrong. I do think Florian will win, but I do not think he is a great bet. There is probably value to Gomi @ +290.
I'm not personally sold on Gomi, even with these odds. But if you really, truly think the value is with Gomi now, you would be doing your bankroll's long term prospects a huge favor (on average) to arb out your mammoth Florian bet.
I'm not personally sold on Gomi, even with these odds. But if you really, truly think the value is with Gomi now, you would be doing your bankroll's long term prospects a huge favor (on average) to arb out your mammoth Florian bet.
He arbed out of both Florian and Nelson. Still has 5 and 6 units on them, though.
Damn, this fucking sucks.
Emerson lost.
So far I'm doing alright. Uno kind of hurt though
Volkmann wins via SD.
Glad I didn't bet on Torres.
I'm up .7u on the night so far. I like the way things are going. Nelson and Florian better not fuck this up for me.
I'm up .7u on the night so far. I like the way things are going. Nelson and Florian better not fuck this up for me.
What are your bets again?
5u parlay to win 8u on Florian, Nelson, and Okami
2.7u to win 5.6u on Uno
2u to win 1.4u on Lentz
1u to win 2u on Volkman
is it me or does Siver look huge compared to Pearson?
is it me or does Siver look huge compared to Pearson?
He looks like hes losing to me
Anybody got a working stream for this shit?
Anybody got a working stream for this shit?
Spike TV ::handshake::
Spike TV ::handshake::
You know, I might laugh if it didn't look like I was gonna be stuck reading the PBP for the rest of the night.
Well pay your cable bill on time and this shit wouldn't happen.
Well pay your cable bill on time and this shit wouldn't happen.
Some of us can't afford cable.
Well maybe one day Unicef will sponsor Spike TV and everyone will get it
Well maybe one day Unicef will sponsor Spike TV and everyone will get it
Thanks.
Svino
03-31-2010, 08:54 PM
Anybody got a working stream for this shit?
I have one at http://snapples.forumotion.com/
Buncha ads though.
I couldnt find one I looked
I have one at http://snapples.forumotion.com/
Buncha ads though.
Awesome, it works! Thanks!
I couldnt find one I looked
Thanks for looking.
Hopefully Nelson treats Struve like he does bean sprouts in his chinese food and just kind of flicks him away
Hopefully Nelson treats Struve like he does bean sprouts in his chinese food and just kind of flicks him away
chinese food sounds good right now
Any of these sound good to you guys:
Gomi wins by KO/TKO +350
Florian Wins by KO/TKO +225
Florian Wins by Decision +300
Any of these sound good to you guys:
Gomi wins by KO/TKO +350
Florian Wins by KO/TKO +225
Florian Wins by Decision +300
Ah pass .Gomi is almost +300 so why lay +350 on him having to ko/tko?
If Ken Flo wins I say its inside the distance but I'm wrong alot ::handshake::
Eh, fuck it.
Kenny Wins via Decision -- .5u to win 1.5u
::lmao::
The power went out fatty must have needed a snack and was chewing on the wires
Eh, fuck it.
Kenny Wins via Decision -- .5u to win 1.5u
so you took my advice ::lmao::
Svino
03-31-2010, 09:25 PM
Those both seem like good odds for Florian, compared to the pure odds for the fight. You got any odds on him to win for sub?
so you took my advice ::lmao::
LOL.
Well I don't have an inside the distance option through Bookmaker.
There's just Kenflo via KO/TKO for +225 or via Submission for -150.
Those both seem like good odds for Florian, compared to the pure odds for the fight. You got any odds on him to win for sub?
Yeah, -150. Fuck that.
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