View Full Version : Possibly The Easiest MMA Parlay of All Time
natman2939
03-25-2010, 06:10 AM
Right now on bodog (and other sites I'm sure) you can parlay StPierre, Penn, and Anderson at -200!!!!!
with a maximum bet of 1000$ that's an easy 500$ profit.
I know anything can happen but let's be honest. these are the three easiest fights these great fighters have had in a long time.
I'd say it's easily a 95+% that this parlay would hit.
Mr. IWS
03-25-2010, 08:39 AM
Leaning towards a similar play myself.
Thewiseman
03-25-2010, 09:19 AM
I have a feeling Edgar pulls off a close, controversial decision.
UKDonkbet
03-25-2010, 10:15 AM
I have a feeling Edgar pulls off a close, controversial decision.
Care to elaborate?
Thewiseman
03-25-2010, 10:45 AM
Edgar has much better footwork then Sherk and Sanchez, and better head movement than Sanchez and maybe Sherk. I mean, Sanchez just stood in front of BJ, and Sherks standup is pretty mediocre. Florian didnt do too bad standing, but tried to GSP Penn and Florian just doesnt have the wrestling or size to do it. Edgar has better wrestling than Florian, maybe better than Sanchez(I think he does). And Far better Boxing than Sherk or Diego. I think this is a closer fight than people think. I give Edgar at least a 20% chance to win, so I think there is value in him. I havent decided if im going to bet it straight up or take Edgar by decision, because I dont see Edgar finishing. Might bet .5u on each. I see this fight most likely to go the distance either way though.
poopoo333
03-25-2010, 11:12 AM
I don't see Edgar beating BJ in any round, let alone 3.
That is a good parlay, but I think the riskiest fight on there is Maia/Silva.
No reason to parlay it though, since it's 2 separate events. Just bet gsp then dump the winnings on a penn and silva parlay. That way you get the luxury of changing your mind.
I don't see Edgar beating BJ in any round, let alone 3.
That is a good parlay, but I think the riskiest fight on there is Maia/Silva.
I personally think the Maia/Silva fight is probably the safest, but maybe I'm missing something.
Can Maia sub Silva? Sure, but he has to get him there to make it happen. I think Silva's standup is just going to be WAY too much for Maia and this one might even end in round 1, a la Maia/Marquardt.
I don't see Edgar beating BJ in any round, let alone 3.
That is a good parlay, but I think the riskiest fight on there is Maia/Silva.
I personally think the Maia/Silva fight is probably the safest, but maybe I'm missing something.
Can Maia sub Silva? Sure, but he has to get him there to make it happen. I think Silva's standup is just going to be WAY too much for Maia and this one might even end in round 1, a la Maia/Marquardt.
it's the idea of what weapons does the fighter possess. Dan Hardy has good boxing and hits hard, he has the potential to knock out anyone. Maia can absolutely tap Silva. However both guys are very likely to get dominated early and often. Despite this, they have a clear cut way to win the fight. Edgar on the other hand is much more likely to make a competitive bout with Penn and hang around awhile, but does he really possess the offense to get Penn out of there?
I don't think so.
Thewiseman
03-25-2010, 01:33 PM
IF Maia gets inside without getting his head knocked off, he still has to get Silva down, and then its gonna be a tall task to catch him in something. Silva will probable just wrap him up in the body triangle. Maia has the worst chance of the 3 in my opinion. Silva is going to make him pay.
it's the idea of what weapons does the fighter possess. Dan Hardy has good boxing and hits hard, he has the potential to knock out anyone. Maia can absolutely tap Silva. However both guys are very likely to get dominated early and often. Despite this, they have a clear cut way to win the fight. Edgar on the other hand is much more likely to make a competitive bout with Penn and hang around awhile, but does he really possess the offense to get Penn out of there?
I don't think so.
I see your point. I think a lot of my thoughts on the matter come down to this statement of yours:
"Edgar on the other hand is much more likely to make a competitive bout with Penn and hang around awhile. . ."
Because the longer Edgar is able to hang around, the longer he has to catch Penn with something. If he can go all 5 rounds, then that's 5 rounds to land just the right punch or--dare I say it--lock on a sub.
Fair enough. But I just don't think he has the power to hurt Penn with a single shot. He'd have to soundly outbox him, and even then he wasn't close to hurting Sherk. And cmon, Edgar subbing Penn? That's crazy talk. =D
Mr. IWS
03-25-2010, 02:08 PM
I dont think I have ever seen BJ rocked by one punch.
If you want a 3 fight parlay that pays decent I can find 3 boxing matches that will pay better and have less risk.
I would never do this in MMA where any slip up can get you KO'd or caught in a submission .Boxing is just so much less riskier imo
poopoo333
03-25-2010, 02:21 PM
I don't see Edgar beating BJ in any round, let alone 3.
That is a good parlay, but I think the riskiest fight on there is Maia/Silva.
I personally think the Maia/Silva fight is probably the safest, but maybe I'm missing something.
Can Maia sub Silva? Sure, but he has to get him there to make it happen. I think Silva's standup is just going to be WAY too much for Maia and this one might even end in round 1, a la Maia/Marquardt.
Thales Leites got a double leg on Silva and maintained top control for awhile. Travis Lutter took Silva down. Marquardt took Silva down. Hendo took Silva down...it seems like Silva gets taken down in every fight that somebody attempts a takedown against him. Judging by that, I think a grappler like Maia has a shot of taking Silva down as well, or maybe even pulling guard. It's not like Maia has weak takedowns, did you see that toss to Chael Sonnen he did?
MMA_scientist
03-25-2010, 02:33 PM
I think all 3 will win, but I don't see any of them as an absolute lock. I would not be surprised if any one of them won. Hardy could Serra GSP. Maia could Lutter Silva (except not gas after 30 seconds). I think Frankie has the best boxing of anyone BJ has fought, though I would say Florian is a better striker. He also has better takedowns than any lightweight he has fought (MAYBE Sherk, but Sherk never tried a takedown). Though I think BJ would sub him if he took him down. BJ can be taken down and Edgar is a much better wrestler than FLorian or Sanchez.
Anyway, it definately is not 95%. Any one of those fights alone is not 95%.
Should we start a parlay thread because I can find lots of boxing matches with lines between -300 and -500 that we could parlay together and make money
MMA_scientist
03-25-2010, 02:49 PM
Should we start a parlay thread because I can find lots of boxing matches with lines between -300 and -500 that we could parlay together and make money
Yes. You should.
Should we start a parlay thread because I can find lots of boxing matches with lines between -300 and -500 that we could parlay together and make money
Yes. You should.
Is anyone else interested in doing something like this? Because I dont want to start a parlay thread with a bunch of boxing matches and end up talking to myself like I do in most of my boxing threads
I think all 3 will win, but I don't see any of them as an absolute lock. I would not be surprised if any one of them won. Hardy could Serra GSP. Maia could Lutter Silva (except not gas after 30 seconds). I think Frankie has the best boxing of anyone BJ has fought, though I would say Florian is a better striker. He also has better takedowns than any lightweight he has fought (MAYBE Sherk, but Sherk never tried a takedown). Though I think BJ would sub him if he took him down. BJ can be taken down and Edgar is a much better wrestler than FLorian or Sanchez.
Anyway, it definately is not 95%. Any one of those fights alone is not 95%.
True, even if all 3 fights were 90%, that makes the parlay only about 72% likely to hit.
Is anyone else interested in doing something like this? Because I dont want to start a parlay thread with a bunch of boxing matches and end up talking to myself like I do in most of my boxing threads
LOL.
Luke, I'm going to stop by your boxing threads from now on just to say hi. I might even do a little research so I can contribute something meaningful.
On that note, yes, you should make that thread. If you find some good stuff that you think deserves a bet then I'll follow.
Fair enough. But I just don't think he has the power to hurt Penn with a single shot. He'd have to soundly outbox him, and even then he wasn't close to hurting Sherk. And cmon, Edgar subbing Penn? That's crazy talk. =D
I dont think I have ever seen BJ rocked by one punch.
Hey, there's a first time for everything. . .
Is anyone else interested in doing something like this? Because I dont want to start a parlay thread with a bunch of boxing matches and end up talking to myself like I do in most of my boxing threads
LOL.
Luke, I'm going to stop by your boxing threads from now on just to say hi. I might even do a little research so I can contribute something meaningful.
On that note, yes, you should make that thread. If you find some good stuff that you think deserves a bet then I'll follow.
Ok I'll start a MMA/Boxing parlay thread tomorrow when I get a chance
Thales Leites got a double leg on Silva and maintained top control for awhile. Travis Lutter took Silva down. Marquardt took Silva down. Hendo took Silva down...it seems like Silva gets taken down in every fight that somebody attempts a takedown against him. Judging by that, I think a grappler like Maia has a shot of taking Silva down as well, or maybe even pulling guard. It's not like Maia has weak takedowns, did you see that toss to Chael Sonnen he did?
My concern would be Maia came out wanting to box with Miller. Will he do the same thing again? I'm sure he won't IMMEDIATELY shoot for a takedown. He never does. Look at the Marquardt fight. He came out ready to at least start the fight standing and he got sent flying into the air doing front flips and shit.
All I'm saying is that it could be another short night for Maia. Maybe 30 seconds short.
[quote=zY|]Fair enough. But I just don't think he has the power to hurt Penn with a single shot. He'd have to soundly outbox him, and even then he wasn't close to hurting Sherk. And cmon, Edgar subbing Penn? That's crazy talk. =D
I dont think I have ever seen BJ rocked by one punch.
Hey, there's a first time for everything. . .[/quote:q0zdnqhl]
The moon could crash into the Earth tomorrow too.
The moon could crash into the Earth tomorrow too.
Or you could get laid.
Anythings possible but alot of things arent likely
The moon could crash into the Earth tomorrow too.
Or you could get laid.
Anythings possible but alot of things arent likely
LOL.
I must say, I'm greatly enjoying your one-liners. ::thumbup::
LOL.
I must say, I'm greatly enjoying your one-liners. ::thumbup::
finally someone that can take a joke ::handshake::
Mr. IWS
03-25-2010, 06:02 PM
Ok I'll start a MMA/Boxing parlay thread tomorrow when I get a chance
Cool! Ill stop by and not contribute anything to it.
::handshake::
Ok I'll start a MMA/Boxing parlay thread tomorrow when I get a chance
Cool! Ill stop by and not contribute anything to it.
::handshake::
You probably wont be the only one.It will go like this:
post 1: Luke :I'm taking a hopkins,mosley,butler parlay 2 units to win 1.8
post 2 : SPX "hi"
post 3 : MMA Scientist "Hi"
post 4 :Zak " ::handshake:: "
post 5: ZY "boxing is stupid" . "hi"
FuckRollesGracie
03-25-2010, 06:15 PM
Oh, hai guy.
Box parley rule!
K bye
Thewiseman
03-25-2010, 06:23 PM
Should we start a parlay thread because I can find lots of boxing matches with lines between -300 and -500 that we could parlay together and make money
Im betting whatever picks you post.
Should we start a parlay thread because I can find lots of boxing matches with lines between -300 and -500 that we could parlay together and make money
Im betting whatever picks you post.
Dont forget to say "hi"
::handshake::
Ok I'll start a MMA/Boxing parlay thread tomorrow when I get a chance
Cool! Ill stop by and not contribute anything to it.
::handshake::
You probably wont be the only one.It will go like this:
post 1: Luke :I'm taking a hopkins,mosley,butler parlay 2 units to win 1.8
post 2 : SPX "hi"
post 3 : MMA Scientist "Hi"
post 4 :Zak " ::handshake:: "
post 5: ZY "boxing is stupid" . "hi"
::handshake::
Oh, hai guy.
Box parley rule!
K bye
lol
You probably wont be the only one.It will go like this:
post 1: Luke :I'm taking a hopkins,mosley,butler parlay 2 units to win 1.8
post 2 : SPX "hi"
post 3 : MMA Scientist "Hi"
post 4 :Zak " ::handshake:: "
post 5: ZY "boxing is stupid" . "hi"
LOL
Especially at Zak.
All I know is the last time I put big enough money to make any money on a sure thing parlay Nate "fuck you over when it matters" Marquardt went and got dominated for three rounds by Chael Sonnen.
poopoo333
03-25-2010, 09:54 PM
Thales Leites got a double leg on Silva and maintained top control for awhile. Travis Lutter took Silva down. Marquardt took Silva down. Hendo took Silva down...it seems like Silva gets taken down in every fight that somebody attempts a takedown against him. Judging by that, I think a grappler like Maia has a shot of taking Silva down as well, or maybe even pulling guard. It's not like Maia has weak takedowns, did you see that toss to Chael Sonnen he did?
My concern would be Maia came out wanting to box with Miller. Will he do the same thing again? I'm sure he won't IMMEDIATELY shoot for a takedown. He never does. Look at the Marquardt fight. He came out ready to at least start the fight standing and he got sent flying into the air doing front flips and shit.
All I'm saying is that it could be another short night for Maia. Maybe 30 seconds short.
No, I really don't think Maia is an idiot...he won't have the same gameplan with Silva that he did with Miller. I am sure he learned something from that Marquardt fight.
All I know is the last time I put big enough money to make any money on a sure thing parlay Nate "fuck you over when it matters" Marquardt went and got dominated for three rounds by Chael Sonnen.
Truth. I feel that pain. It was the biggest single bet I've ever lost. 4 units.
I had 7 down on him just because I was convinced Chael had nothing for Marquardt.
I plan on doing parlays on boxing matches where I think there is no or little chance the other guy is going to win but I
the line is high enough(-400 to -500) that I wouldnt bet it straight .I think this will give us to pick up some extra units that we would other wise be skipping out on. I mean how many times have you said this guy and this guy would win but im not laying -400 and -500 and they both win? But who wants to bet 9 units to win 2?
But who wants to bet 9 units to win 2?
Truth.
I'd like some "safe" parlays that get as close to 1:1 as possible (or better).
But who wants to bet 9 units to win 2?
Truth.
I'd like some "safe" parlays that get as close to 1:1 as possible (or better).
Thats my plan either 2 or 3 fights to get somewhere close to even
Thewiseman
03-26-2010, 01:52 PM
I plan on doing parlays on boxing matches where I think there is no or little chance the other guy is going to win but I
the line is high enough(-400 to -500) that I wouldnt bet it straight .I think this will give us to pick up some extra units that we would other wise be skipping out on. I mean how many times have you said this guy and this guy would win but im not laying -400 and -500 and they both win? But who wants to bet 9 units to win 2?
Thats what I like to do in MMA. Like I just did Guida, Kongo, Pierce and Jones. Now I have GSP, Hughes, Okami, and Silva. I did bet Silva straight though.
I wont have anymore than 3 fights in a single parlay .I really want to shoot for 2 fighters but will probably end up with 3 .
Thewiseman
03-26-2010, 02:06 PM
i wouldnt mind 4 if he see 4 good picks. Anything for this weekend? Straight or parlay? What is your take on Jones/Hopkins? Why is Jones such a dog? I dont know shit about boxing.
i wouldnt mind 4 if he see 4 good picks. Anything for this weekend? Straight or parlay? What is your take on Jones/Hopkins? Why is Jones such a dog? I dont know shit about boxing.
Because he got knocked out by Crocodile Dundee in the first round a few months ago.
Because Jones is so far gone its not even funny.Jones use to win fights on his quickness and foot work .Hes been too scared to throw punches since he was KO'd by Tarver and his foot work is completely gone. He doesnt throw combinations anymore , cant avoid punches , and doenst have the speed on his punches he once did. Hopkins should doninate Jones but I cant bet -450 on a 45 year old fighter no matter how good he is so the parlay would make sense. This was one of the fights I was looking at for a parlay .I'm also looking at two fights to bet straight this weekend but am still deciding
i wouldnt mind 4 if he see 4 good picks. Anything for this weekend? Straight or parlay? What is your take on Jones/Hopkins? Why is Jones such a dog? I dont know shit about boxing.
Because he got knocked out by Crocodile Dundee in the first round a few months ago.
Crocodile Dundee ::lmao::
I have a feeling Edgar pulls off a close, controversial decision.
OK Negrodamus.
How much time do I have left to bet this parlay? I dont want to miss the easiest -200 3 fighter parlay in history.
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