4-2-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section (regular or premium)

::handshake::

BEN BURNS COMP

Edmonton @ Dallas
Pick: Edmonton +1.5

Yesterday, we took a large underdog (Florida) on the "puck-line." It turned out that we didn't need the extra 1.5 goals, as the Panthers won the game outright. Still, as expected, it was a close game, (1-0) which was decided by one goal. Here's another case where we can get a very reasonable price with the +1.5 goal option, in a game that also has a good chance of being close the whole way.

While the Oilers are admittedly having a dismal season, they haven't just rolled over and quit. They're 3-3 their last six games. Five of those games, including all three of the losses, were decided by a single goal. In other words, if one had been getting +1.5 goals with them in all six of those games, one would be a perfect 6-0.

The Stars are off an impressive 5-1 win over San Jose. They haven't won back to back games since mid-February though, having alternated wins and losses in each of their last 10 games. Overall, they've got just six wins in their past 16 games.

A look at the season series between these teams shows that all three games were decided by a single goal. Those games had scores of 4-3, 3-2 and 5-4. Edmonton won two of them, both of those victories coming via the "shootout." Looking back further and we find that 10 of the last 16 meetings in the series have been decided by one goal. Consider Edmonton on the puck-line.

Big Al
2 Other Free plays

Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers 'over 5.5 goals

Houston Rockets +pts against Boston

BIG AL COMP

Chicago @ Washington
PICK: Chicago -4

On Wednesday, we used the Wizards here over New Orleans, and Flip Saunders' men rewarded us with an outright win, 96-91, as a double-digit underdog. That victory snapped Washington's 16-game win streak, but off that victory, we'll fade Washington as it returns home to face Chicago. Washington has won just 22 games this season (.297 win pct), and now falls into a "late-season" system of mine that's 67% ATS over the past 20 years. What we want to do is fade any .299 (or worse) team off a win in the final 24 games of the season! These teams are generally playing out the string, and usually don't put together two consecutive strong performances. Chicago is still fighting for a playoff spot, as it is currently in 9th place -- two games behind Toronto for the final post-season berth. With the Wizards 7-20 ATS off an upset, we'll play on Chicago on Friday night.

LARRY NESS

Utah @ L.A. Lakers
Pick: Lakers -4.5

The Jazz visit LA one game ahead of the Nuggets in the Northwest and just 4 1/2-games back of the Lakers for the overall No. 1 seed in the West (are tied with the Mavs). It's unlikely the Jazz will catch the Lakers but they'd sure love to nail down that No. 2 seed, thereby avoiding LA until the conference finals. The Lakers look to avoid a third straight loss (fell at New Orleans on Monday and Atlanta on Wednesday), as they return home after a five-game road trip (went just 2-3). The Jazz have won eight of their last 10 games but the bad news for Utah fans (and good news for LA fans) is that the Lakers own 13 straight home wins over the Jazz. The streak dates back to January of 2006 and includes six postseason victories as well, with the Lakers averaging 114.3 PPG while shooting 51.4 percent from the floor during the streak. LA remains without Bynum (15.0-8.3) until mid-April while the Jazz will be missing Kirilenko (11.9-4.6). Both teams are plenty deep and led by a pair of All Stars. Utah features Boozer (19.6-11.2) and Williams (18.3-4.0-10.6) while LA counters with Kobe (27.2-5.3-5.1) and Gasol (17.6-11.1). The Jazz are the league's best shooting team (49.2 percent) but LA doesn't get enough credit for its defense, owning the league's sixth-best defensive FG percentage, including No. 1 in three-point shooting (32.5). The Lakers will need Bynum come playoff time (in late May and June) but tonight, expect the Jazz to bring out the best in them, as LA rolls to a double-digit win. Lay the points.