Boxing play question (Luke, here is your chance)

[MMA_scientist]

This is a quote from one of the comments on my blog. Sounds reasonable to me. Input appreciated.

"Not sure if you interested in this at all you have Khan vs Mallinaggi this weekend. Khan should win this quite comfortably and the odds are not that great going to lay 8u at 1.20. Khan beats Mallinagi in every department except the chin, unfortuanltly I probably stand more chance of knocking khan out then Mallinagi as he only has 5 ko's to his name. I think this fight is a pretty much lock"

Khan is -550 on BM now.

What say you?

[Luke]

Yes no doubt Khan wins this fight but I really didnt want to lay that much juice.It was -450 a little while ago. I usually try not to bet over around-300 without putting it in a parlay.

If you guys dont mind laying high juice on near locks I can find many fights in the -400 to -500 range that will win but like I said I try to stay around the -300 or less range

[Luke]

by the way I've posted 7 boxing plays so far this year trying to get you into betting boxing going 6-1.Why the interest now?

Like I said I try to stay around -300.My seven boxing bets odds this year:

Wlad over 11.5 rounds -110 WIN

Hopkins -22 points -110 WIN

Holyfield -230 WIN

Funkea -220 LOST

Gomez -340 WIN

Kessler -155 WIN

MAyweather -300 WIN

[MMA_scientist]

I think I am going to start a week o week homespun boxing parlay. I am going to start with like $100, and just keep parlaying it until I win like 5 or 6 in a row.

So yeah, give me some locks in the -400 range.

Is Khan as much a lock as the comment suggests?

[Luke]

I think I am going to start a week o week homespun boxing parlay. I am going to start with like $100, and just keep parlaying it until I win like 5 or 6 in a row.

So yeah, give me some locks in the -400 range.

Is Khan as much a lock as the comment suggests?


A lock ? no

I consider a lock a Couture-Toney fight .A fight that unless Toney lands a quick KO punch he losses. Is this that? No I mean its possible Paulie could come out and out box Khan but its highly unlikely.


Personally I dont like laying that high of odds .I would take Khan and parlay it with Krzysztof Wlodarczyk whos around -450. You'll get around -225 odds on a parlay I think hits most of the time.

Or bet on the Krzysztof Wlodarczyk and then when it wins take the winnings and roll it to Khan. You can do that because the Wlodarczyk fight is at 2pm because its in Poland .The Khan fight doesnt start until 10pm

[Luke]

Personally I'd lay the -420 on Krzysztof Wlodarczyk before I'd lay -550 on Khan.

[SPX]

Did someone say. . . Khan?




http://www.startrek2.com/movies/images/st2.jpg

[Luke]

Did someone say. . . Khan?


http://www.startrek2.com/movies/images/st2.jpg




^^^^^^^^ nerd alert^^^^^^^

[poopoo333]

Personally I'd lay the -420 on Krzysztof Wlodarczyk before I'd lay -550 on Khan.

I can get Wlodarczyk @-500. I'm scared though.

[SPX]

I'm with Luke in that I don't really like taking fights past -300. There are just too many fights where the underdog pulls it off, at least in MMA. I mean, working backward, just off the top of my head I can remember: Penn/Edgar, Lawlor/Doerksen, Curran/Huerta, Brown/Gamburyan, Marquardt/Sonnen, Larson/Pierce, Larson/Foster, Kid/Kanehara. . . And who knows how many I'm forgetting or just am not aware of.

I'm not saying you can't make money that way if you pick your fights well, because obviously you can, but that's just too risky and too stressful of a way to become a successfull bettor for me.

[Luke]

I'm with Luke in that I don't really like taking fights past -300. There are just too many fights where the underdog pulls it off, at least in MMA. I mean, working backward, just off the top of my head I can remember: Penn/Edgar, Lawlor/Doerksen, Curran/Huerta, Brown/Gamburyan, Marquardt/Sonnen, Larson/Pierce, Larson/Foster, Kid/Kanehara. . . And who knows how many I'm forgetting or just am not aware of.

I'm not saying you can't make money that way if you pick your fights well, because obviously you can, but that's just too risky and too stressful of a way to become a successfully bettor for me.


yeah you go 5-1 betting -500 favs and even .You've hit 85% and won nothing

[Luke]

Personally I'd lay the -420 on Krzysztof Wlodarczyk before I'd lay -550 on Khan.

I can get Wlodarczyk @-500. I'm scared though.


I like it better than Khan but I also like -420 better than -500.


These two already fought once a year ago in Italy ,Fragomeni's home country .The decision was a draw which was highway robbery. This time the fight is in Poland ,Wlodarczyk's home country. Its well known in boxing that overseas any round even remotely close goes to the home guy.

Plus you throw in Fragomeni is now 40 and 5'9" while Wlodarczyk is 28 and 6'1" and I think its a good bet.

In fact I might end up taking it

I also kind of like Nate Campbell this weekend against Victor Ortiz .Campbell is +145

[Mr. IWS]

I may tale on Wloddy

[Luke]

I may tale on Wloddy


Have you seen the first fight ?

I'm going to miss the fight because I'll be in the air at the time.

If I end up betting it which I think I am will you send a text to my phone with the results?

[Mr. IWS]

I may tale on Wloddy


Have you seen the first fight ?

I'm going to miss the fight because I'll be in the air at the time.

If I end up betting it which I think I am will you send a text to my phone with the results?

Nah, didnt see the first fight, but Ill text you the results when its over.

[Luke]

[quote="IWS Zak":3mg462az]I may tale on Wloddy


Have you seen the first fight ?

I'm going to miss the fight because I'll be in the air at the time.

If I end up betting it which I think I am will you send a text to my phone with the results?

Nah, didnt see the first fight, but Ill text you the results when its over.[/quote:3mg462az]


Let me rewatch the first fight again before I lock in the bet. I took off today and tomorrow because I havent packed a damn thing yet so I should be able to watch it in the next couple hours ::handshake::

[BillyPilgrim]

Personally I dont like laying that high of odds .I would take Khan and parlay it with Krzysztof Wlodarczyk whos around -450. You'll get around -225 odds on a parlay I think hits most of the time.

Or bet on the Krzysztof Wlodarczyk and then when it wins take the winnings and roll it to Khan. You can do that because the Wlodarczyk fight is at 2pm because its in Poland .The Khan fight doesnt start until 10pm

I ask this with the utmost respect: you do know that a parlay is just taking your winnings from one fight and rolling them into the next, right?

So if Khan is ok to parlay with Wlodarczyk, he is ok alone. Actually, if you parlayed the 2, you would actually just be raising your bet on Khan.

I am not saying this to be smart ass, because I am probably going to take your advice. But I just wanted to be clear. If I am going to bet on Khan today and roll the winnings into another guy next week, its the same as betting on Khan and Wloddy in a parlay.

[poopoo333]

If you guys bet Wlodarczyk, I will too.

We ride together, we die together, IWS for life.


http://www.shockya.com/news/wp-content/uploads/bad_boys_3_photo.jpg

[BillyPilgrim]

If you guys bet Wlodarczyk, I will too.

We ride together, we die together, IWS for life.

I lol'd. very nice.

::clap::

[Luke]

Personally I dont like laying that high of odds .I would take Khan and parlay it with Krzysztof Wlodarczyk whos around -450. You'll get around -225 odds on a parlay I think hits most of the time.

Or bet on the Krzysztof Wlodarczyk and then when it wins take the winnings and roll it to Khan. You can do that because the Wlodarczyk fight is at 2pm because its in Poland .The Khan fight doesnt start until 10pm

I ask this with the utmost respect: you do know that a parlay is just taking your winnings from one fight and rolling them into the next, right?

So if Khan is ok to parlay with Wlodarczyk, he is ok alone. Actually, if you parlayed the 2, you would actually just be raising your bet on Khan.

I am not saying this to be smart ass, because I am probably going to take your advice. But I just wanted to be clear. If I am going to bet on Khan today and roll the winnings into another guy next week, its the same as betting on Khan and Wloddy in a parlay.

Well duh ! Why do you think I said parlay it OR bet on the Krzysztof Wlodarczyk and then when it wins take the winnings and roll it to Khan.

[BillyPilgrim]

Luke,

Here is what my resident boxing guys says:

"Well if your interested the other bet i am laying on the weekend is Kevin Mitchell vs Katsidis. I did not recommend this originally as I gave Mitchell about 65 % chance of winning, he has continually got better and looks to have matured, but it is a close fight. I also felt i may have a slight personal attachment to this fight
Katsidis burst onto the scene when he defeated Graham Earl, somebody whom originated from my boxing club. You can see it on Youtube, other then the second round Graham received a pretty bad beat down. Since then Katsidis as shown himself to be a very tough brawler who does not have one punch ko power, but more of a means of physically overpowering and wearing down opponents. He has also demonstrated that he can lose fights due to his sheer love of brawling. He is also a bleeder it is very rare this boy leaves the ring without a cut.
With Mitchell he use to enjoy brawling but in his last 2 fights has demonstrated a cool boxing head that he was known for as an amateur and early in his career. He clearly outclassed Khan conquering Prescott over 12 rounds and opted not to trade punches something he would not have done 2 yrs ago. With Khan leaving warren Mitchell is one of Frank Warrens future cash cows. The fight is held at West Ham football ground (Mitchell is a west ham boy) there will be 30,000 Mitchell fans myself included. So if the fight was close on the scorecards Im pretty confident Mitchell walks away with a points win / late stoppage
Here is a preview of the fight, the writer talks about his vulnerability during the Johanensen fight. The fact is they had a war because Mitchell wanted a war and when he decided that a war was not the best choice he got on his bike and picked his shots Johanensen did not lose to fatigue
Currently the odds are 1.66 "


Now. What do you have to say to that fight?

I don't know a thing about these guys, so I am posting your thought over there too... I am going to tail most likely.

[BillyPilgrim]

Well duh ! Why do you think I said parlay it OR bet on the Krzysztof Wlodarczyk and then when it wins take the winnings and roll it to Khan.

Just making sure... you would be surprised how many people don't know that. A lot of guys think parlays are magic.

The way you phrased made me think...

[SPX]

Just making sure... you would be surprised how many people don't know that. A lot of guys think parlays are magic.

The way you phrased made me think...

I actually didn't know it until just recently. I didn't think it was "magic" but I thought the books were giving you better odds than if you bet both fights individually because of the reduced likelihood of calling BOTH fights correctly.

[BillyPilgrim]

Just making sure... you would be surprised how many people don't know that. A lot of guys think parlays are magic.

The way you phrased made me think...

I actually didn't know it until just recently. I didn't think it was "magic" but I thought the books were giving you better odds than if you bet both fights individually because of the reduced likelihood of calling BOTH fights correctly.


In a lot of cases, its the opposite. Some books charge you for the opportunity to parlay.

[SPX]

In a lot of cases, its the opposite. Some books charge you for the opportunity to parlay.

So, a convenience charge essentially. . .

[Luke]

Just making sure... you would be surprised how many people don't know that. A lot of guys think parlays are magic.

The way you phrased made me think...

I actually didn't know it until just recently. I didn't think it was "magic" but I thought the books were giving you better odds than if you bet both fights individually because of the reduced likelihood of calling BOTH fights correctly.


lets say you bet paylay 2 fights that are both -500.When you parlay them you get -228
odds

so you bet 228 to win 100 in a parlay

now if you bet fighter A for the 228 you were going to bet on the parlay and he wins you win 45.60
after you win you take all that money and bet it on fighter B 273.60(228+45.60) and you'll win 54.72 if he wins so you'll have a total of 328.32 which is actually .32 cents higher than if you had parlayed the two

Now of course you cant bet one fighter than the next when they fight at the sametime so thats when you have to parlay the two.

understand SPX?

[Luke]

In a lot of cases, its the opposite. Some books charge you for the opportunity to parlay.

So, a convenience charge essentially. . .


nah they just like to screw you. But I think its in other sports than MMA and boxing. A few years ago I bet a 4 team college football parlay and when it hit it paid out 13.9 to 1 when true odds of 4 teams winning are 16 to 1

[SPX]

lets say you bet paylay 2 fights that are both -500.When you parlay them you get -228 odds

Maybe this is why I thought you were getting better odds. We all know that I'm not mathematician, so it seemed to me like betting two fights at -500 should reduce the odds to -250.



Now of course you cant bet one fighter than the next when they fight at the sametime so thats when you have to parlay the two.


Interesting. I had not considered that angle.

[Luke]

Luke,

Here is what my resident boxing guys says:

"Well if your interested the other bet i am laying on the weekend is Kevin Mitchell vs Katsidis. I did not recommend this originally as I gave Mitchell about 65 % chance of winning, he has continually got better and looks to have matured, but it is a close fight. I also felt i may have a slight personal attachment to this fight
Katsidis burst onto the scene when he defeated Graham Earl, somebody whom originated from my boxing club. You can see it on Youtube, other then the second round Graham received a pretty bad beat down. Since then Katsidis as shown himself to be a very tough brawler who does not have one punch ko power, but more of a means of physically overpowering and wearing down opponents. He has also demonstrated that he can lose fights due to his sheer love of brawling. He is also a bleeder it is very rare this boy leaves the ring without a cut.
With Mitchell he use to enjoy brawling but in his last 2 fights has demonstrated a cool boxing head that he was known for as an amateur and early in his career. He clearly outclassed Khan conquering Prescott over 12 rounds and opted not to trade punches something he would not have done 2 yrs ago. With Khan leaving warren Mitchell is one of Frank Warrens future cash cows. The fight is held at West Ham football ground (Mitchell is a west ham boy) there will be 30,000 Mitchell fans myself included. So if the fight was close on the scorecards Im pretty confident Mitchell walks away with a points win / late stoppage
Here is a preview of the fight, the writer talks about his vulnerability during the Johanensen fight. The fact is they had a war because Mitchell wanted a war and when he decided that a war was not the best choice he got on his bike and picked his shots Johanensen did not lose to fatigue
Currently the odds are 1.66 "


Now. What do you have to say to that fight?

I don't know a thing about these guys, so I am posting your thought over there too... I am going to tail most likely.


To tell you the truth I havent really looked at it this week .I havent had time this week.If I get a chance tomorrow I'll look at it a little deeper. I dont want to give an opinion unless I'm sure about it ::handshake::

[Luke]

Maybe this is why I thought you were getting better odds. We all know that I'm not mathematician, so it seemed to me like betting two fights at -500 should reduce the odds to -250.


you know they have a parlay calculator on bestfightodds?




Interesting. I had not considered that angle.


Yeah alot of times fights go off at the sametime or within a few hours so they no chance to take your winnings and apply them to another fight .Parlaying is the only thing to do in these cases

[Luke]

Luke,

Here is what my resident boxing guys says:

"Well if your interested the other bet i am laying on the weekend is Kevin Mitchell vs Katsidis. I did not recommend this originally as I gave Mitchell about 65 % chance of winning, he has continually got better and looks to have matured, but it is a close fight. I also felt i may have a slight personal attachment to this fight
Katsidis burst onto the scene when he defeated Graham Earl, somebody whom originated from my boxing club. You can see it on Youtube, other then the second round Graham received a pretty bad beat down. Since then Katsidis as shown himself to be a very tough brawler who does not have one punch ko power, but more of a means of physically overpowering and wearing down opponents. He has also demonstrated that he can lose fights due to his sheer love of brawling. He is also a bleeder it is very rare this boy leaves the ring without a cut.
With Mitchell he use to enjoy brawling but in his last 2 fights has demonstrated a cool boxing head that he was known for as an amateur and early in his career. He clearly outclassed Khan conquering Prescott over 12 rounds and opted not to trade punches something he would not have done 2 yrs ago. With Khan leaving warren Mitchell is one of Frank Warrens future cash cows. The fight is held at West Ham football ground (Mitchell is a west ham boy) there will be 30,000 Mitchell fans myself included. So if the fight was close on the scorecards Im pretty confident Mitchell walks away with a points win / late stoppage
Here is a preview of the fight, the writer talks about his vulnerability during the Johanensen fight. The fact is they had a war because Mitchell wanted a war and when he decided that a war was not the best choice he got on his bike and picked his shots Johanensen did not lose to fatigue
Currently the odds are 1.66 "


Now. What do you have to say to that fight?

I don't know a thing about these guys, so I am posting your thought over there too... I am going to tail most likely.


Sorry I was thinking tomorrow was Saturday since I had the day off today and I was leaving in the morning. I will have time tomorrow to look at this fight for sure.


As for the Khan fight the odds have went upto -600 so this is 100% a no bet for me . Its takes a 99.9% lock for me to bet odds that high. Now Khan should steamroll Paulie in this fight but I dont lay -600 on just about anything .


I really think Wlodarczyk at -420 is worth a bet .I want to rewatch there first match one more time to make sure but I think its a good bet.I'll also check on the Mitchell fight tomorrow ::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

Luke, you still betting Wloddy?

[Luke]

Luke, you still betting Wloddy?


More than likely .I wanted to rewatch the first fight one more time and see the weigh ins before locking it in. I've just been really busy today. I should have it figured out in the next few hours. I'll post it tonight for sure ::handshake::

[Mr. IWS]

What time you leaving?

[Luke]

What time you leaving?


plan leaves at 12pm I have to be there at 10am probably leave the house around 8am.I land in Vegas 4:30pm eastern time.

I think we decided to get the internet this year while we are down there so I be able to post at least a little while I'm down there. I hate paying for the internet though its 15 bucks a day

[Mr. IWS]

I think we decided to get the internet this year while we are down there so I be able to post at least a little while I'm down there. I hate paying for the internet though its 15 bucks a day

Fuck that. do you really want the internet?

[Luke]

I think we decided to get the internet this year while we are down there so I be able to post at least a little while I'm down there. I hate paying for the internet though its 15 bucks a day

Fuck that. do you really want the internet?


Yeah I really do want the internet I like to keep caught up on everything in here and through out sports .Plus my emails and other things .But 95 bucks for 7 days of internet is fucking crazy. We decided though since our 130 a night room is free we can afford the internet this time.

I didnt tell you they gave us the 7 days of 130 night hotel for free did I?


Anyway I'm passing on the W?odarczyk fight . The odds are up to -500 on 5dimes and I cant find the weigh ins.

I'm going to try to cap the Kevin Mitchell fight later and its only around -150 .

[Mr. IWS]

No play for me then.
::handshake::

[Luke]

Luke,

Here is what my resident boxing guys says:

"Well if your interested the other bet i am laying on the weekend is Kevin Mitchell vs Katsidis. I did not recommend this originally as I gave Mitchell about 65 % chance of winning, he has continually got better and looks to have matured, but it is a close fight. I also felt i may have a slight personal attachment to this fight
Katsidis burst onto the scene when he defeated Graham Earl, somebody whom originated from my boxing club. You can see it on Youtube, other then the second round Graham received a pretty bad beat down. Since then Katsidis as shown himself to be a very tough brawler who does not have one punch ko power, but more of a means of physically overpowering and wearing down opponents. He has also demonstrated that he can lose fights due to his sheer love of brawling. He is also a bleeder it is very rare this boy leaves the ring without a cut.
With Mitchell he use to enjoy brawling but in his last 2 fights has demonstrated a cool boxing head that he was known for as an amateur and early in his career. He clearly outclassed Khan conquering Prescott over 12 rounds and opted not to trade punches something he would not have done 2 yrs ago. With Khan leaving warren Mitchell is one of Frank Warrens future cash cows. The fight is held at West Ham football ground (Mitchell is a west ham boy) there will be 30,000 Mitchell fans myself included. So if the fight was close on the scorecards Im pretty confident Mitchell walks away with a points win / late stoppage
Here is a preview of the fight, the writer talks about his vulnerability during the Johanensen fight. The fact is they had a war because Mitchell wanted a war and when he decided that a war was not the best choice he got on his bike and picked his shots Johanensen did not lose to fatigue
Currently the odds are 1.66 "


Now. What do you have to say to that fight?

I don't know a thing about these guys, so I am posting your thought over there too... I am going to tail most likely.


I just got done capping this fight and I agree with most of this .I dont think its going to be as close as this guy does nor do I think Mitchell will stop Kasidis. I think Mitchell wins a clear decision in the fight something like 116-112 or 117-111.This is in the UK every close round will go to Mitchell ::handshake::

[MMA_scientist]

I just got done capping this fight and I agree with most of this .I dont think its going to be as close as this guy does nor do I think Mitchell will stop Kasidis. I think Mitchell wins a clear decision in the fight something like 116-112 or 117-111.This is in the UK every close round will go to Mitchell ::handshake::

So, are you going to make this play?

[MMA_scientist]

Nevermind, saw your thread.