View Full Version : Rashad Evans-ShoGun Rua line
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Bout what I expected
Mr. IWS
06-02-2010, 06:38 PM
Im on Who-Ah fo sho.
Interesting.
Does Rua beat Rashad ~71% of the time?
*strokes chin*
poopoo333
06-02-2010, 07:33 PM
Rashad wins this one unfortunately.
ManBoobKilla
06-02-2010, 07:38 PM
Rashad wins this one unfortunately.
Now that Rashad is back to his wrestling ways I can definatly see him winning this. Shogun doesnt have the best take down def but I am hoping that his very good Jiu Jitsu will take over. Shogun I think can Sweep and get back to the feet, if not submitting him also.
poopoo333
06-02-2010, 07:42 PM
Rashad wins this one unfortunately.
Now that Rashad is back to his wrestling ways I can definatly see him winning this. Shogun doesnt have the best take down def but I am hoping that his very good Jiu Jitsu will take over. Shogun I think can Sweep and get back to the feet, if not submitting him also.
I see Shogun gassing in the later rounds.
Personally I dont like it at that high with Rua's poor takedown defense .
I wanted to bet Rua in his next fight at around -150 which I think I would have got had Rampage won.
If the hype train gets ahold of this line and skyrockets it I'll be looking at Evans
Rashad wins this one unfortunately.
Now that Rashad is back to his wrestling ways I can definatly see him winning this. Shogun doesnt have the best take down def but I am hoping that his very good Jiu Jitsu will take over. Shogun I think can Sweep and get back to the feet, if not submitting him also.
I see Shogun gassing in the later rounds.
That is certainly a possibility.
However, Rashad wearing Shogun down and gassing him out is his only way to win IMO. The problem with this is Rashad has a shitty gas tank as well, and has never gone more than 15 minutes. Every time he's ever wrestled(with the possible exception of the Rampage fight) he's gassed himself out. Shogun definitely has more ways to win. He's dangerous and has show-stopping offense in all areas of a fight, and his chin and toughness is 2nd to none. The guy is an absolute tank. Also, if Shogun hurts Rashad like Silva and Rampage did I would expect a finish very shortly. He has some of the best killer instinct and savagery in MMA. Another thing is that Rashad had a definite speed advantage over Rampage, which he won't enjoy against Shogun who was at least as fast as Machida. I favor Shogun in the fight but I certainly don't see it as a wash. Rashad is an elite fighter for sure. But his technical shortcomings are masked by his athleticism and speed. Rashad will have to formulate a fantastic gameplan to deal with Rua(similar to the Rampage one but with opponent specific nuances obviously). Although Shogun himself has shown recently that his team's gameplanning is as good as anyone's in the sport. I definitely look forward to this fight.
I was hoping to get Shogun at cheaper than -240. I expect(hope) for the line to drop once the fight is actually scheduled and the hype begins.
All that said, perhaps I'll just fade Scientist. ::thumbup::
I honestly expect the line to go up but I could be wrong
poopoo333
06-02-2010, 08:09 PM
It's really a hard fight to predict... I agree with ZY on everything basically. I think Shogun might gas because we haven't seen him be pressured really:
Forrest: He was pressured, taken down, gassed
Coleman: Was taken down a lot, was wrestled and gassed
Chuck: There was one scramble and it ended quick, so who knows, didn't gas, but it was a one rounder
Machida 1: Kind of a slow paced striking match, a lot different then grappling, didn't gas
Machida 2: Well that was fast, but he was taken down twice easily, but got back to his feet quickly, didn't gas..but it was a one rounder
Who knows if Shogun has really fixed his conditioning? The only times we have seen him pressured and forced into a wrestling match, he gassed and looked bad.
That being said, I hope Shogun wins. But the smart bet is on Rashad at +225 or better.
It's really a hard fight to predict... I agree with ZY on everything basically. I think Shogun might gas because we haven't seen him be pressured really:
Forrest: He was pressured, taken down, gassed
Coleman: Was taken down a lot, was wrestled and gassed
Chuck: There was one scramble and it ended quick, so who knows, didn't gas, but it was a one rounder
Machida 1: Kind of a slow paced striking match, a lot different then grappling, didn't gas
Machida 2: Well that was fast, but he was taken down twice easily, but got back to his feet quickly, didn't gas..but it was a one rounder
Who knows if Shogun has really fixed his conditioning? The only times we have seen him pressured and forced into a wrestling match, he gassed and looked bad.
That being said, I hope Shogun wins. But the smart bet is on Rashad at +225 or better.
Agreed. It's hard to gauge when you have the monkeywrench of the knee surgeries and recovery thrown in. He hasn't had to work hard since the Coleman fight, and was in control of the pace of all 3 fights since. It's much easier not to tire yourself when you're controlling the tempo. I'd say that, as in most things, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. His cardio will undoubtedly be better than in the Forrest/Coleman fights, but he probably will tire if Rashad is able to control him round after round.
poopoo333
06-02-2010, 08:35 PM
I hope Shogun wins. Shogun/Silva is something I really would like to see.
I say if Rashad beats Rua, then Machida wins a few and then reclaims the belt, once again proving that the LHW title can't stay with anyone past a defense or two.
I say if Rashad beats Rua, then Machida wins a few and then reclaims the belt, once again proving that the LHW title can't stay with anyone past a defense or two.
Yeah and that would be megagay.
poopoo333
06-02-2010, 09:14 PM
Imagine what the title situation would be like in the WW and MW division if GSP and Silva were not in the division.
Yeah and that would be megagay.
Are you not a Machida fan?
Yeah and that would be megagay.
Are you not a Machida fan?
I'm ready for someone to hold the title for awhile.
Thewiseman
06-02-2010, 10:14 PM
Me and a friend met in the middle at 220. So I have 2u on Evans at +220.
Me and a friend met in the middle at 220. So I have 2u on Evans at +220.
How do you see it goin?
Thewiseman
06-03-2010, 08:42 AM
I see Evans using the same gameplan that he used vs Silva and Rampage. He will get the takedown easy, I just dont think Shogun will be able to sweep or lock something up from his back. The helicopter sweep he used to get back to his feet vs Machida MAY work for him to stand up, but I think he will get put right back down. I see Rua gassing probably 3rd rd, and Evans either winning a decision or stopping him late in the fight. However, Evans was caught in the 3rd rd in his last two fights, and if Rua catches him I think he will finish, unless he is gassed at that point and I think he will be late in the fight. But that is why I only put 2u on it. And its with a buddy so none of my money is tied up, I may put 2 more on it closer to fight time. I think Evans takes this 60-75 percent of the time, so +190 is a steal.
For the record, Rua is one of my favorite fighters and I really dont like Evans, I just think it is a bad match up for Rua.
MMA_scientist
06-03-2010, 09:04 AM
1u on Rashad
I see Evans using the same gameplan that he used vs Silva and Rampage. He will get the takedown easy, I just dont think Shogun will be able to sweep or lock something up from his back. The helicopter sweep he used to get back to his feet vs Machida MAY work for him to stand up, but I think he will get put right back down. I see Rua gassing probably 3rd rd, and Evans either winning a decision or stopping him late in the fight. However, Evans was caught in the 3rd rd in his last two fights, and if Rua catches him I think he will finish, unless he is gassed at that point and I think he will be late in the fight. But that is why I only put 2u on it. And its with a buddy so none of my money is tied up, I may put 2 more on it closer to fight time. I think Evans takes this 60-75 percent of the time, so +190 is a steal.
For the record, Rua is one of my favorite fighters and I really dont like Evans, I just think it is a bad match up for Rua.
Interesting.
I just don't buy that Rashad is some super skilled, big GSP. He may aspire to that, but it's just not the case. His wrestling is not even really that great. He failed on most of his attempts against Rampage, struggled to get Silva down at times, struggled to take Bisping down. If Shogun sweeps him it's not gonna be pretty.
Thewiseman
06-03-2010, 03:10 PM
Yeah, If Rua is on top its a wrap. Evans is no GSP, but his takedowns look better than when he fought Bisping. And Rampages Takedown defense is way better than Rua's. Machida took him down with ease. I may put more on Evans. I think this is like King Mo vs Mousasi, but these guys are on a higher level skill wise.
MMA_scientist
06-03-2010, 03:21 PM
^^ Rua does not have great TD defense. And Rashad has good submission defense. He is a BJJ blackbelt after all (said with contempt).
Forrest was able to take Rua down and control him pretty well. Rashad's takedowns are not the best, but they are at least as good as Forrest's.
I think it is a favorable matchup for Rashad. I expect the line to get better though.
Yeah, If Rua is on top its a wrap. Evans is no GSP, but his takedowns look better than when he fought Bisping. And Rampages Takedown defense is way better than Rua's. Machida took him down with ease. I may put more on Evans. I think this is like King Mo vs Mousasi, but these guys are on a higher level skill wise.
I guess. King Mo is like a billion times better wrestler than Rashad though.
MMA_scientist
06-03-2010, 03:48 PM
Yeah, If Rua is on top its a wrap. Evans is no GSP, but his takedowns look better than when he fought Bisping. And Rampages Takedown defense is way better than Rua's. Machida took him down with ease. I may put more on Evans. I think this is like King Mo vs Mousasi, but these guys are on a higher level skill wise.
I guess. King Mo is like a billion times better wrestler than Rashad though.
Mo is a better wrestler, but he isn't THAT much better. To a non-wrestler like Mousasi and Rua they probably feel about the same. The difference in skill would only come up against each other or some other wrestler or takedown defense guy.
Svino
06-03-2010, 07:23 PM
Evans' fight with Silva actually doesn't give me a lot of confidence because that fight was close, and there's a pretty big gap between Thiago and Shogun. Also, as much as I hate excuses, I don't think current Rua is the same guy that lost to Forrest, and agree with what zY said about Evans' cardio.
So I do think Shogun will win, but this is exactly the kind of fight where I have done well betting on (or at least never betting against) the wrestler. I might still drop a small bet on Evans here. I certainly will if the odds get steeper.
Thewiseman
06-03-2010, 08:31 PM
Yeah, If Rua is on top its a wrap. Evans is no GSP, but his takedowns look better than when he fought Bisping. And Rampages Takedown defense is way better than Rua's. Machida took him down with ease. I may put more on Evans. I think this is like King Mo vs Mousasi, but these guys are on a higher level skill wise.
I guess. King Mo is like a billion times better wrestler than Rashad though.
Evans wrestling is good enough, and Rua's defense is poor enough. I didnt mean just the wrestling, Evans and Rua are better than Mousasi and Mo everywhere.
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