Bellator 22

[edman5555]

I'm thinking Ben Askren. I just put down 4u or so on him at +115. I think these odds are good for him. Hornbuckle probably won't submit him. He isn't the same calibre of athlete. I remember hearing somewhere that Hornbuckle never really tries to stop the takedown(likes fighting off back). I don't know if thats true but his body is skinny as hell so he's prob going to get taken down anyway. Askren can hold him down

I'm watching hornbuckle-pyle now and hornbuckle is obv tough as hell..I doubt askren can ko him.

Horn could ko askren, either can submit the other one..

I'm leaning toward Askren in the grappling credentials. They are both purple belts in BJJ, just askren is also an olympic wrestler.

Probably a top control dec for askren or a submission win for askren. Only way for Hornbuckle to win is to either Ko him or beat him on the feat in ALL three rounds.

[edman5555]

Askren submitted Toni Linden in ADCC comp.

http://adccbarcelona.com/2009/07/12/toni-linden/


Just read Askren has 4th most pins in NCAA history. Looks like he is good at putting people on their backs.

[zY|]

I have to favor Hornbuckle, based entirely on Askren's slopfest with Thomas. I see him either getting caught with a sub eventually or he will be able to ride out a decision on top. No bet.

gl

[edman5555]

Askren holds an ADCC win against the Europe ADCC champ. That sounds good to me.

[zY|]

MMA ain't ADCC.

[MMA_scientist]

Askren holds an ADCC win against the Europe ADCC champ. That sounds good to me.

He also got subbed in about 20 seconds in his second fight in ADCC (though it was against Popovitch, would who sub any other WW that comes to mind too except maybe GSP). So no shame there.

The guy he beat (Toni Linden), I don't believe is even ranked in bjj. He won the trials but that can be very deceiving, being that it was in Finland. He might have only had to win 2 matches against scrubs... we don't know.

I will say that Linden did have a very rubbery guard, and he was very flexible... so that is very similar to Hornbuckle's guard... It took Askren a while but he did pass and even mounted him before choking him out.

So that bodes well for the style match up with Hornbuckle.

But he also got caught in a triangle by Thomas in the first fight. Triangles are Hornbuckle's thing. So that doesn't inspire confidence. If it wasn't for that triangle by Thomas, I would probably be with you on Askren.

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/293.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[edman5555]

Caught? he didn't tap though

[MMA_scientist]

Caught? he didn't tap though

no, it wasn't even that close... but still.

Pecanha has already beaten Stinson once. So that might be worth a look. I am trying to find it now.

[Mr. IWS]

Im on Conrad for 1000 units.

[MMA_scientist]

Ok. did some research on Stinson/Pecanha...

I could not find a vid of the first fight, but apparently Leo subbed him with a triangle.

BUT, Stinson won the open tryout, edging out Leo, who was second. I don't know if they actually fought a tournament... or if it was liek a TUF tryout where they just watch you spar.

It does say he edged him in "the finals" which makes me think they actually fought.

http://www.bellator.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=23600&ATCLID=204903916

BUt I watched some vids of Leo, and he looks really good. I find it hard to believe that Stinson could beat him.

Anyone know how these tryouts work?

[Mr. IWS]

Whats up with that chick fight? The one girl is 3-9 in her career.

[MMA_scientist]

Found this little nugget: "The open tryouts will be held in a cage and will include grappling and bag-striking. Competitors will be judged by Bellator Fighting Championships executives and officials."

So they didn't fight.

Pecanha looks really solid from what I have seen.

[Luke]

Whats up with that chick fight? The one girl is 3-9 in her career.


I looked it up and sherdog says Stephanie Frausto is 2-1 and Lisa Ward is 12-5

[Thewiseman]

Took Orr for .1u

[MMA_scientist]

Probably going to be on Askren now.

His line has moved up tp +140... We all know that he will be getting the takedown. Hornbbuckle has that triangle, which concerns me, but he has never caught it against a grappler of Askren's calibur.
I do think Hornbuckle is a better fighter at this point, but Askren really just needs to avoid the knees on the shot, and the triangle. I think there is a 50% chance he will do it.


1u on Askren @ +140

[poopoo333]

1.6u to win 1u on Hornbuckle

[MMA_scientist]

Proper respect ot Edman555 for setting me on the path.

originally like Hornbuckle here, but the more I look at it, I think Askren is going to win.

I know what the battle here is. The takedown IS going to happen. Hornbuckle does not even try to stop the takedowns. And it wouldn't matter anyway, as Askren is in the top 5 wrestlers in MMA (for the record, Warren is the best wrestler in MMA, IMO. Cormier is up there too... Askren is a 2x, Hendricks is 2x, Conrad is a 2x, Koscheck 1x, Lesnar 1x- those are all of the olympians or NCAA1 champs that I can think of off the top of my head- that are under 35).

So the question is whether Hornbuckle can submit Askren from him back with his very good triangle/armbar/omoplata game. There is also the chance that Askren eats a knee or a head kick coming in.

I think Askren will have enough to avoid the submission. They are both purple belts in bjj. Hornbuckle has a lot more experience in MMA. But his first fight was only in 2006, so I think that rank is probably about right. Askren on the other hand has no discernible skills other than his wrestling/jj game. Luckily, he can impose it on anyone in the world, since he is at the absolute top of the foodchain in takedowns.

Askren has been training his bjj a lot. He went to ADCC in 2009. He defeated Toni Linden, the European trials winner in his first match, then got subbed by Popovitch in his second match. I have said before, Popovitch would be the best grappler in MMA at WW, so there is no shame in that loss, which came by heelhook about 20 seconds in. The Linden win is what I am basing my breakdown on. I cannot find a vid of the match, but I saw it live on the ADCC stream. Linden is a super flixible triangle type, just like Hornbuckle. Askren struggled in teh guard for a minute, pased, mounted, and choked him with an arm triangle. I think there is a very good chance Askren can out position Dan on the mat and maybe even submit him in the same way. If not, he can stall out a win.

With the odds being +140... I think its worth a play.

I actually put 2u pn Askren (not the 1u I said).

[MMA_scientist]

1.6u to win 1u on Hornbuckle


I thought we were boys.

http://i.faves.com/01/01/82d5/47b44919/42b8900d8d610e1697_5.jpg

[poopoo333]

1.6u to win 1u on Hornbuckle


I thought we were boys.

http://i.faves.com/01/01/82d5/47b44919/42b8900d8d610e1697_5.jpg
I think askren will be subbed in the third.

[MMA_scientist]

I think askren will be subbed in the third.

The sub might come, but it will be in the first or not at all. Once Askren gets a feel for Hornbuckle's guard, he won't be caught.

Watch, Askren will win the striking and Hornbuckle will take him down.

[zY|]

LOL at 'top of the food chain'.

I just HOPE Askren gets tapped. He's not quite as cocky and horrible as Joe Warren, but he's up there.

[Thewiseman]

1u on Askren @ +140

[Ludo]

4u to win 4.6u on Askren

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to feel horrible now if Askren goes down with you guys jumping on board... I should have probably mentioned that I feel this fight is about 50/50... But with the line @ +140...


Zy, why LOL at top off the food chain? Because he isn't or because I used a Rogan turn of phrase?

[poopoo333]

Meh I should have put my money on Askren now that I think about it. The value is definitely on him.

[AC88]

Damn you guys. You're making me want to put money on Askren now. I do see him winning though.

[Ludo]

Don't mind me, AC88, I'm chasing.

[MMA_scientist]

I just HOPE Askren gets tapped. He's not quite as cocky and horrible as Joe Warren, but he's up there.

He is annoying. Warren is the worst though- I really want to see him get smashed. I felt so happy when Bibiano armbarred him. Warren is def in my top 5 pfp douchebags in MMA.

I followed Askren's wrestling career and I like his style and his attitude about training, but his personality leaves a lot to be desired.

Warren is just a dick. He dryhumps a B level figher and nearly gets subbed several times, then walks around saying "I am baddest man on the planet." Plus he got banned from the olympics in 2008 for dope smoking, which we all know was to try to mask the roids. Rapist midget cheater who shits on America.

[edman5555]

Yeah I was reading a lot about Askren last night. Found out something else interesting.

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/13 ... kren-16094 (http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/13-Questions-for-Ben-Askren-16094)

This is an interview with him conducted on Feb 06, 2009.

In it he states that he started training in BJJ a "couple of summers ago".

That means at least 2 summers, maybe 3? summer of 2007, maybe 2006. He has been doing BJJ on some level(possibly very infrequently) for 4 years??

Hornbuckly isnt a grappler on his level. Although there is the Jake Rosholt effect to worry about but he got sub'd by Dan miller and Kendell Grove which prob are a step above Hornb in the grappling department. Also Askren is probably taking BJJ a lot more seriously if he has done what he had to do in order to get invited to ADCC.

[edman5555]

Also,, it seems to me that Hornbuckles only chance is to knock him out standing...which could very well happen. However I think that if askren can get him down he can most likely hold him there for the entire round if he has to. That means he only has to get him down once or twice a round, depending on how frequently the ref likes to stand them up. His top control is very very active from what i have seen in his fights against Ryan Thomas as well.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ i remember reading about him startug bjj when he was still in college. So he proabbly started around the same time Hornbuckle did. Askren is a lot better grappler than Rosholt though- the wrestling is close, but Askren is incorporating guard passing and submissions into his game. That should make him more aware of the submissions as well.

I don't think Grove is a better grappler than Hornbuckle. Miller is though. Hornbuckle has 10 submission wins and was ranked in SD top 10 for a while. He is a better fighter than Grove and Miller IMO. But I just think Askren will have the tools to beat him on the ground, where this fight is going to take place, unless Askren walks into something shooting in.

[edman5555]

Yeah I didn't really have anything to back up the KG bjj assessment. I just remember him triangling Rosholt with those ridiculiously long legs when I had money on rosholt.

[AC88]

A lot of people had money on Rosholt for that one. Maybe even I did. Ugh

[MMA_scientist]

Also,, it seems to me that Hornbuckles only chance is to knock him out standing...which could very well happen. However I think that if askren can get him down he can most likely hold him there for the entire round if he has to. That means he only has to get him down once or twice a round, depending on how frequently the ref likes to stand them up. His top control is very very active from what i have seen in his fights against Ryan Thomas as well.

I agree, he basically has to get three takedowns (one in each round) and then avoid the triangle and upkicks. He likes to pass guard and he is impossible to hold down. Even if Hornbuckle sweeps him, Askren has a freak ability to just roll over (that is how he used to wrestle and also why he is not a godl medalist IMO- he would go to a precarious spot, then just flip over on top... but in freestyle wrestling, you cannot expose your back to the mat at all, it is not a good fit for his style of wrestling). I think he could be world champ in folkstyle, if there was such a thing.

[MMA_scientist]

A lot of people had money on Rosholt for that one. Maybe even I did. Ugh

I lost 5u on that fight. Grove has a surprising guard. He almost armbarred Almeida. Just, the rest of his grond game is not that solid.

[AC88]

Grove actually did have the armbar on tight and damaged his arm. Almedia talked about it in a post-fight interview. He just didn't tap though.

[Ludo]

Grove's length is the only thing keeping him alive in his MMA career right now. If he was 6'1" he'd have gotten smashed in his last 4 straight with relative ease. But because he has the build of a fucking praying mantis his striking looks better than it actually is, his submissions can compensate for the fact that his bottom game is pretty bad all because his limbs are longer than average.

[edman5555]

Also,, it seems to me that Hornbuckles only chance is to knock him out standing...which could very well happen. However I think that if askren can get him down he can most likely hold him there for the entire round if he has to. That means he only has to get him down once or twice a round, depending on how frequently the ref likes to stand them up. His top control is very very active from what i have seen in his fights against Ryan Thomas as well.

I agree, he basically has to get three takedowns (one in each round) and then avoid the triangle and upkicks. He likes to pass guard and he is impossible to hold down. Even if Hornbuckle sweeps him, Askren has a freak ability to just roll over (that is how he used to wrestle and also why he is not a godl medalist IMO- he would go to a precarious spot, then just flip over on top... but in freestyle wrestling, you cannot expose your back to the mat at all, it is not a good fit for his style of wrestling). I think he could be world champ in folkstyle, if there was such a thing.


Yeah I was going to say something about Askren Rolling over a lot. I noticed in the Ryan Thomas fight that sometimes Askren would get kinda rolled over or it would look like he was being put into a bad position but I don't think it is really as it appears. I think either it's A: he goes there on purpose because he is looking for a move/position and he doesn't care about being there because he knows he can get back easily. Or B:He'll go for crazy shit that might get him swept because he doesn't care if he is on his back because he knows he will get right back to top position easily. Or it's both A and B which I think may by the case.

[AC88]

Hornbuckle's mma experience is worth noting.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ agreed. Hornbuckle is a much better fighter. But given the fact that Askren would have to be suicidal to try to stand with him, and the fact that Hornbuckle doesn't try to stop takedowns...this is going to be a grappling match with hammerfists and upkicks.

[AC88]

Ooooh. Askren's line went from +115 to +125.

1U on Askren for now.

[sideloaded]

10u on Askren. No way he doesn't win.

[AC88]

1U on Askren officially because the line is closed. Betus sucks ::thumbdown::

[MMA_scientist]

10u on Askren. No way he doesn't win.

I think I have asked this before. How do you define a unit? That is big dog bet.

[MMA_scientist]

btw, this show started 30 mins ago...

[zY|]

Yeah and the first fight was just sad.

[Svino]

Heh, that guy pulled a Hendo there after the KO.

[MMA_scientist]

I am behind on the DVR it is just starting for me.

[zY|]

LOL and by the laws of Bellator, the 2nd fight more than makes up for it.

Keith Jardine would've been proud of the way that dude collapsed from that left hook.

[edman5555]

Where are you watching it?

[Svino]

I have it at : http://www.justin.tv/liveandhq1

[zY|]

I'm watching it on my tv.

[MMA_scientist]

Watching it on my tv too. Its on Fox Sports.

Why did you not like the first fight? It was 3 minutes.

[zY|]

Watching it on my tv too. Its on Fox Sports.

Why did you not like the first fight? It was 3 minutes.

That Richards guy had no business being in there.

[MMA_scientist]

[quote="MMA_scientist":3t7ntdtp]Watching it on my tv too. Its on Fox Sports.

Why did you not like the first fight? It was 3 minutes.

That Richards guy had no business being in there.[/quote:3t7ntdtp]

Oh, that. Yeah. True.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ i like it when guys get taught a lesson though. Some guys think they can just show up and win because they are athletes. That guy was a scrub, he hadn't trained at all, IMO

[MMA_scientist]

Damn, I almost bet on Card. Maybe that means my curse is lifted.

[MMA_scientist]

You dont see a lot of stone cold KO's from the bantamweights.

[zY|]

^^ i like it when guys get taught a lesson though. Some guys think they can just show up and win because they are athletes. That guy was a scrub, he hadn't trained at all, IMO

Yeah I agree. But it's not something that needs to be aired live. SPX would've done better than that dude. He would've at least shown off some flashy taekwando kicks.

[poopoo333]

Fucking Marlins are on TV. Thank God for sopcast...got home just in time for Askren/Hornbuckle

[AC88]

Cmon Askren. Double leg, single leg, judo throw, ankle pick, fireman's carry, w/e you gota do!

[Svino]

Nice work for that TD.

[MMA_scientist]

Takedown. be smart now.

[AC88]

Beautiful single leg from Askren to start it off.

[MMA_scientist]

askren showing improved gnp

[MMA_scientist]

very good passing being shown.

[MMA_scientist]

I am loving this fight. Askren is slicker than I thought.

[zY|]

Sick, sick round.

[MMA_scientist]

10-9 Askren


just need 2 more takedowns.

[AC88]

Man Askren reminds me of a lighter Cain without the striking.

[edman5555]

Oh just like we said Scientist. 1 Takedown

[edman5555]

Did pecanha fight?

[Svino]

I loved the takedown Askren got exploding out from his back where Hornbuckle was standing over him.

[Luke]

anyone got a link so I can watch the rest of this?

[Svino]

http://www.justin.tv/liveandhq1

[MMA_scientist]

Did pecanha fight?

it didnt air yet... ity already happened though

[MMA_scientist]

takedowns at will.

[MMA_scientist]

there was thr triangle i was worried about... no sweat

[Svino]

LOL head-scissor.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ that is a legit submission from there.

[MMA_scientist]

need 1 more td

[zY|]

Askren is such a fag.

[AC88]

1 more round til Hornbuckle eats karma for not touching gloves. :D

[Luke]

http://www.justin.tv/liveandhq1


thanks Svino ::handshake::

[MMA_scientist]

1 more round til Hornbuckle eats karma for not touching gloves. :D

Askren will say something about it too, watch.

[edman5555]

Askren has a great style for a wrestler. So good because he is always moving/working...ref won't stand him up.

[Luke]

This is the biggest cage ever or am I just not getting a good viewing angle?

[zY|]

It's the cage. Bellator cage is like a vast ocean.

[MMA_scientist]

I liked that fight alot.

Even moreso because I just won 2.8u.

Finally.

Edman555... youre the man. That was all you.

[edman5555]

Glad I could help.

[AC88]

Man betus sucks. I definitely could have put more on that one.

[edman5555]

I went back and put a little but more money on it at the end. Not a boat load but i almost added more. Chickened out. I think this is the way to make money though. Betting dogs/even. Occasionally favorites..Allistair overeem over bret rogers was great..

[Luke]

It's the cage. Bellator cage is like a vast ocean.


OK I thought it was just me. I havent watched any Bellators before

[poopoo333]

I expected the Askren of the Ryan Thomas fights to show up. -1.6u

[Svino]

I don't know why I didn't bet that fight - Askren is exactly the kind of guy I like to bet on. I just don't have a habit of betting on Bellator because I don't feel like I know all the fighters well enough.

[MMA_scientist]

I am trying to stay under -250 and pick my spots better. I just got away from my formula- which is betting fights that I KNOW are going to be grappling matches. This fight went almost exactly like I thought it would.

[AC88]

+1.25U. Funky style!

[MMA_scientist]

Sorry poops.

Chase it bro.

[edman5555]

Askren is going to be pretty crazy once he gets some more sub/striking training/exp in.

[Luke]

is that it for the fights?

[poopoo333]

Sorry poops.

Chase it bro.

The only line open is the women's fight. hmmm, the favorite is -370.

[zY|]

LOL

I can't wait until somebody beats this d-bag. Why are these wrestlers such dickheads?

[AC88]

I predict Askren to take out Lyman Good as well. Please keep giving Askren underdog odds.

[MMA_scientist]

Zy, its just part of the culture of the sport.

[Luke]

LOL

I can't wait until somebody beats this d-bag. Why are these wrestlers such dickheads?


wouldnt you be too if you had to roll around on the mat with another guy your whole life?

[MMA_scientist]

is that it for the fights?

no, they will show Pecanha/Stinson and the chick fight.

[Luke]

is that it for the fights?

no, they will show Pecanha/Stinson and the chick fight.


ok thanks. ::handshake::

[poopoo333]

0.6u on the woman that is a underdog @+310

[sideloaded]

+ 10u. Thank god.

[MMA_scientist]

LOL

I can't wait until somebody beats this d-bag. Why are these wrestlers such dickheads?


wouldnt you be too if you had to roll around on the mat with another guy your whole life?

haha grapplers are gay. Do you knwo Bob Arum?

[Luke]

0.6u on the woman that is a underdog @+310

LOL I'd have took the other girl

[MMA_scientist]

0.6u on the woman that is a underdog @+310

chick underdogs never win.

[sideloaded]

10u on Askren. No way he doesn't win.

I think I have asked this before. How do you define a unit? That is big dog bet.

Im kind of a pussy and do $ 20 units.

[Luke]

Ward is a grappler , Frausto is a striker with no ground game

[poopoo333]

0.6u on the woman that is a underdog @+310

chick underdogs never win.

On Moosin the +500ish underdog won.

[Luke]

shes going to get killed just like her sister did against Miesha Tate

[AC88]

She and her sister are just strikers with no ground?

[Ludo]

+4.6u

[Luke]

bout what I figured it would be

[poopoo333]

I am gonna be down 2.2u, I don't care. I am going to clean up at the TUF finale, WEC, and UFC 116 :)

[Luke]

She and her sister are just strikers with no ground?


yep

[AC88]

What a terrible way to start off a quickly declining mma career...

[Luke]

What a terrible way to start off a quickly declining mma career...


she's a kickboxer .She either needs to kickbox or learn a ground game simple as that

[MMA_scientist]

10u on Askren. No way he doesn't win.

I think I have asked this before. How do you define a unit? That is big dog bet.

Im kind of a pussy and do $ 20 units.

but do you have a defined bankroll? Like $20 is a percentage of your overall bankroll... or do you just bet whatever you want? FOr example, a lot of guys use a 100u bankroll. So your bankroll would be $2000. So each U would be 1%, and you would have bet 10% of your total bankroll tonight...

[MMA_scientist]

why do people get in teh cage when they can't fight. This chick never trained on the ground for a day.

I don't think I have ever seen a chick go to sleep, so that was cool.

[AC88]

It's risky and quite stupid to get into MMA these days without a ground game. God damn.

[Svino]

It's risky and quite stupid to get into MMA these days without a ground game. God damn.

I think it has been risky and stupid to get into MMA without a ground game from day 1.

[Luke]

why do people get in teh cage when they can't fight. This chick never trained on the ground for a day.

I don't think I have ever seen a chick go to sleep, so that was cool.


Simple ,money.She probably got more money todays fight than she's ever got before

Stupid I agree. With no takedown defense and no ground what do you thinks going to happen against a grappler?

[AC88]

It's risky and quite stupid to get into MMA these days without a ground game. God damn.

I think it has been risky and stupid to get into MMA without a ground game from day 1.

Alright man. You know what I meant.

[sideloaded]

Yeah my total bankroll is around 500. I lost most of that last night I went -16u on Zaromskis. So I desposited more today.

[Thewiseman]

+1.4u on Askren. Got my $$ back from last night.

[Mr. IWS]

Im on Conrad for 1000 units.

::winna::