6-30-10

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BIG AL

6/30/2010 At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs 'under' the total. With yet another meltdown of starter Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs are once again shuffling their rotation and one of the beneficiaries will be lefthanded veteran Tom Gorzelanny who will move back into the rotation for this start. It's somewhat appropriate that Gorzo's first start since being relegated to relief duty at the end of May would come against the Pirates as they are the team that traded him to Chicago at the deadline last season. But Gorzelanny deserves this start for more reasons than just the psychological problems of Zambrano or the series against the Pirates. The fact is that the southpaw has been very effective since moving into the bullpen and in fact for the entire month of June, Gorzelanny has only given up one earned run on three hits in six relief appearances spanning 6 1/3 innings. Pittsburgh will turn to righthander Brad Lincoln for his fifth start of the season this afternoon. Lincoln is still searching for his first win of the season but he gets to face a team that is having serious problems scoring runs right now. In fact in their last eight games, the Cubs have only plated more than three runs on one occasion and they have scored either 0 or 1 run in five of their last ten. With the 3-1 Cubs victory on Tuesday, the under is now 7-2 in the last nine games played between these two in Chicago. NL Central Total of the Month on the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

NL CENTRAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH Chicago Cubs/Pittsburgh Pirates Under

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Guaranteed Pick: Larry Ness

Game: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants Jun 30 2010 3:45PM
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Reason: My 10* NL Game of the Month is on the SF Giants at 3:35 ET.
The Dodgers 'limped' into this three-game series with the Giants having lost 10 of 12 interleague games from June 11 through June 27. The last of those losses came Sunday night, when they blew a 6-2 ninth-inning lead in an 8-6 loss (10 innings). However, the Dodgers have posted consecutive 4-2 wins on Monday and Tuesday and this afternoon will go for their first sweep at San Francisco since July of 2007. As for the Giants, they have now lost four in a row, all at home. The starting pitchers for Wednesday's game are Vincente Padilla for LA and Jonathan Sanchez for the Giants. The Rangers were happy to get rid of Padilla last season but he was a pleasant surprise for the Dodgers down the stretch. He was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in seven starts (team was 6-1) and then was terrific in his first three postseason starts, going 2-0 with an 0.93 ERA (20-2 KW ratio) in three LA wins. However, he did get bombed in his fourth start, allowing six ERs in just four innings of a 10-4 loss. That being said, Padilla was LA's Opening Day starter in 2010 but in four April starts was just 1-1 with a 6.65 ERA (team was 1-3). He was placed on the 15-day DL on April 25 with a sore right forearm and spent almost two months "on the shelf." He was activated on June 19 and has made two starts. He allowed five hits and four ERs (5.1 IP) in a 5-4 loss at Boston (no decision for Padilla) and six hits and two ERs (7 IP) in a 2-1 loss to the Yankees. He's got a solid history vs the Giants (5-2 with a 2.95 ERA in nine career starts / teams are 6-3), including going 4-0 with a 2.36 ERA in five career starts at AT&T Park. However, I really like the Giants to avoid the sweep in this one. Yes, they've lost their last four home games but they are still 25-16 at home this season, allowing opponents a miniscule 2.98 RPG. San Francisco is the LONE team in MLB to hold opponents to less than 3.0 RPG in its home park. Opposing Padilla will be Jonathan Sanchez, who has allowed three ERs or less in 13 of his 15 starts this year. He owns a 3.03 ERA on the season, including going 4-1 with a 3.09 ERA over his last six starts (team is 5-1). He's 5-2 with a 2.62 ERA in eight home starts this year (team is 6-2) and the lone negative is his 0-4 all-time mark vs the Dodgers (6.13 ERA) in eight starts (team is 2-6). However, Sanchez has shown himself to be a MUCH different pitcher this year. His turnaround began after he threw MLB's most unlikely no-hitter of the 2009 season last year vs the Padres on July 11 (had just recently been recalled from a banishment to the bullpen for poor efforts) and pitched decently for the better part of the second half of last season. Again, he's allowed three ERs or less in 13 of his 15 starts, owns a 3.03 ERA and has allowed just 65 hits in 89 innings this season! In his first start of 2010 against the hated-Dodgers, Sanchez "comes up BIG!"

Good luck...Larry

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