View Full Version : UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez
Thewiseman
07-07-2010, 05:13 PM
Lesnar -125
Cain -105
ManBoobKilla
07-07-2010, 05:42 PM
I would feel very good putting 4U on Cain I think this is were Brock falls
edman5555
07-07-2010, 06:14 PM
well linesmakers are smarter than i thought
Excuse me while I go load my guns because I'm firing another bullet on this one
edman5555
07-07-2010, 09:18 PM
ha yes. How high will Cain go? +105 now. The Brock nuthugger army will mobilize.
ha yes. How high will Cain go? +105 now. The Brock nuthugger army will mobilize.
LOL ok
Has there ever been a title fight where two fighters have had a combined less than 14 fights like in this one?
Svino
07-07-2010, 10:28 PM
Has there ever been a title fight where two fighters have had a combined less than 14 fights like in this one?
I think this would be a record in the UFC, since they started belts. Though Randy Couture and Maurice Smith had only a total of 8 wins combined when they fought (and 15 fights).
Cain's up to +105 on Bodog. Gonna wait for the line to move. Question is: will it ever move enough that I could get Lesnar now and arb later....
[edit: oops, I see someone else posted that]
Gilbert Melendez vs Olaf Alfonso for the WEC Lightweight title.
Gabe Ruediger vs Olaf Alfonso for the WEC Lightweight title.
James Irvin vs Jody Poff for the WEC Heavyweight title.
I'm sure theres a couple more in the world of MMA but I'm not going to hunt through shit to find them.
Gilbert Melendez vs Olaf Alfonso for the WEC Lightweight title.
Gabe Ruediger vs Olaf Alfonso for the WEC Lightweight title.
James Irvin vs Jody Poff for the WEC Heavyweight title.
I'm sure theres a couple more in the world of MMA but I'm not going to hunt through shit to find them.
good finds Ludo ::handshake::
Cain's up to +105 on Bodog. Gonna wait for the line to move. Question is: will it ever move enough that I could get Lesnar now and arb later....
[edit: oops, I see someone else posted that]
I dont know if it'll move that much,maybe 30 cents .
Most of what I've read is after the Carwin hypetrain derailed all the passengers jumped onto the Cain hypetrain so that should keep it low enough
Cain's up to +105 on Bodog. Gonna wait for the line to move. Question is: will it ever move enough that I could get Lesnar now and arb later....
[edit: oops, I see someone else posted that]
I dont know if it'll move that much,maybe 30 cents .
Most of what I've read is after the Carwin hypetrain derailed all the passengers jumped onto the Cain hypetrain so that should keep it low enough
This will continue to happen fight after fight as long as Lesnar keeps winning, and probably even if he loses. For some reason he garners a LOT of hate, so much hate it blinds people to his abilities and the progression he's making in the sport it seems.
^^^^Why do people hate Lesnar? Is it from his WWE days?Because I've never watched WWE
It's a mixture of the fact that he was a Pro Wrestler and that is somehow a slight against the sport that he thought he could cross over. Plus he's always been a bit of an ego-maniac and a douchebag which I'm sure never helped things. I don't much care for him when he gets into Brock Lesnar the character(spitting and shit, getting in Mir's face after he mauled it, flipping off the crowd, insulting sponsors, etc etc etc). But as a fighter in the sport I am fairly impressed with the success he's had considering how late in life he took it up.
His size and athleticism and the way they go hand in hand they way they do for him is intriguing to say the least. He doesn't ACTUALLY move like a welterweight or whatever the fuck Rogan said but for a guy who used to cut to make 265 he was very light on his feet and agile. Given enough time to develop a decent striking game he could become a much bigger problem for anyone he's fighting. As it is his size, wrestling, and now his submissions from top control are things to worry about.
I guess I'm impressed by the fact that this guy just up and walked away from the WWE where he was making millions a year because he yearned for actual competition. As I said I don't like Brock Lesnar the character, the heel. I do however like a person with a drive that doesn't begin or end with dollar signs. Not that he's taking a huge paycut to fight in the UFC but the fact that he wanted to actually compete more than he wanted to make guaranteed money.
sideloaded
07-08-2010, 06:47 AM
I'm taking Cain in this fight. Not because I'm a Brock hater I bet on him in his last fight and won. Brock has beaten all his opponents with his two greatest strengths, cardio and his top control wrestling. All the guys he beat these were their problem areas. The worst guy at heavyweight signed with the ufc could of of beat Carwin in that second round. It was like he was on a date rape pill, Brock did whatever he wanted to him. The fights with Harring, Kim, and Frank none of those guys had the ability to stay away from being under Brock. Randy was actually a bad match up for Brock except Randy's below average speed let him down big time in the stand exchanges. Imagine Cain a slightly larger, and much faster version of Randy with even more ability in the stand up game. I know Brock is improving in every fight, its clear to everyone, however has he improved enough to beat an opponent with something other then his two greatest strengths? Cain can lose, but I actually think he's a tougher match up for Brock's skill set then say Werdum, Fedor, Overeem or Dos Santos. A Smaller wrestler with great cardio is harder to beat for a power wrestler then a poweful striker(Overeem,Dos Santos, Fedor) or Bjj wizard(Werdum).
Mr. IWS
07-08-2010, 08:46 AM
I think this is going to be the toughest matchup Brock will have between Cain/Carwin/JDS. Cain is a fuckin Terminator.
I'm going to be on Cain pretty big if the line stays, or continues to move this direction. As sideloaded pointed out, I believe Cain is the WORST possible matchup for Brock. His speed will be the key here.
How do you guys see the fight going?
I think this is going to be the toughest matchup Brock will have between Cain/Carwin/JDS. Cain is a fuckin Terminator.
if you asked me 3 months ago before I started reserching the Carwin-Lesnar fight I would have said Carwin would be his toughest match up
Two ways i can see a lesnar win...#1, he catches Cain with a big punch, and follows him down with big GnP. #2, he takes him down and controls him...this scenario I highly doubt, as I suspect that Cain is a good enough wrestler to at least get back up if taken down. i think there is a very decent chance that Cain just lights Brock up on the feet...technically, he is much better than Brock or Carwin. he may not knock Brock around like Shane did, but he will land at will IMO.
Everyone hopping on my Brown Pride lowrider makes me uneasy.
Everyone hopping on my Brown Pride lowrider makes me uneasy.
Most of what I've read is after the Carwin hypetrain derailed all the passengers jumped onto the Cain hypetrain
::handshake::
edman5555
07-08-2010, 03:46 PM
Cain's up to +105 on Bodog. Gonna wait for the line to move. Question is: will it ever move enough that I could get Lesnar now and arb later....
[edit: oops, I see someone else posted that]
I dont know if it'll move that much,maybe 30 cents .
Most of what I've read is after the Carwin hypetrain derailed all the passengers jumped onto the Cain hypetrain so that should keep it low enough
There will be no derailment of this hypetrain.
edman5555
07-08-2010, 03:51 PM
Cain has better stand up, better BJJ, and better cardio. He might not be able to outwrestle Brock in the beginning but if he can wear him down..yes I think he will out wrestle him. Cain also has the ability to mix up wrestling and striking much better than Brock which will make Brocks takedowns much harder to pull off.
There will be no derailment of this hypetrain.
just admit you are one of the Lesnar haters
edman5555
07-08-2010, 04:06 PM
Yes I am. Though I will say I was impressed with his attitute turn around after this fight. He was actually very respectful. I don't think it affects my betting though. Even though Lesnar won this fight, he was ridiculously close, as close as you can possibly get..to losing. I think Cain is a good matchup, styles make fights.
1.5u to win 1u on Lesnar.
Cain has better stand up, better BJJ, and better cardio. He might not be able to outwrestle Brock in the beginning but if he can wear him down..yes I think he will out wrestle him. Cain also has the ability to mix up wrestling and striking much better than Brock which will make Brocks takedowns much harder to pull off.
How do you know Cain has better cardio? Because someone told you he did? I saw people and websites were saying Carwins best round was the 5th lol.
We'll see how much better that Cardio is when he's spent about 4-7 minutes having Brock Lean on him against the cage.
^^^ thinking the samething
Cain will punish him in the clinch.
Cain will punish him in the clinch.
you're joking right?
No. I think he'll land uppercuts and dirty box his face off.
Because Carwin did a fine job of that too.
No. I think he'll land uppercuts and dirty box his face off.
Dont know what to say because I'm on the complete opposite side I think Cain stands less of a chance of beating Lesnar than Carwin did
Well good. I don't want a consensus with my upset pick.
Well good. I don't want a consensus with my upset pick.
You're already screwed ,you'll have the hypetrain on your side
Too bad Oddessa is a Cain nutrider too. Probably has a lot to do withthis betting line.
Lesnar went from -125 to -150 on Sportsbook. I can't wait to make a shitload off this when Cain gets great underdog odds! ::moneybag::
Mr. IWS
07-09-2010, 09:07 AM
We'll see how much better that Cardio is when he's spent about 4-7 minutes having Brock Lean on him against the cage.
I agree.
People are probably basing the clinch off of two things. Randy seemed to do quite well against Brock in the clinch, and Cain has actually looked like a beast in the clinch...the guy throws combos, knees, and even short leg kicks. It is also reasonable to point out that Cain seems to take opponents down better from the clinch.
Lets be honest, Brock seems to kinda get lost in the clinch, and get a bit lazy...he throws some really good knees, but he seems unable to throw short punches in there. Believing Brock is gonna work Cain over in the clinch seems foolish to me.
I think Brocks best shot is to land a big right fromdistance and then follow a hurt Cain down for the finish, but I think that best shot is still a bit of a longshot.
And I actually like Brock, and am not a big fan of Cain personally(Great respect as a fighter though). But betting wise, I just think Cain @ dog odds is a gift.
^^^^^ I think at +105 Cain is a horrible bet ,at +200 it would probably be worth a shot( I still wouldnt bet it at +200 )
Lesnar went from -125 to -150 on Sportsbook. I can't wait to make a shitload off this when Cain gets great underdog odds! ::moneybag::
Didnt you bet Carwin and say you were going to contuine to fade Lesnar until you got your money back?
Another Lesnar hater
Lesnar went from -125 to -150 on Sportsbook. I can't wait to make a shitload off this when Cain gets great underdog odds! ::moneybag::
Didnt you bet Carwin and say you were going to contuine to fade Lesnar until you got your money back?
Another Lesnar hater
Pretty much.
Pretty much.
ok just checking
I think it is safe to say that there is a decent amount of Cain haters out there also. As many of them thought he would lose to Kongo, Rothwell(LOL), and then Nog was going to outbox him, and then school him on the mat. many people kinda hate the guy and his whole Brown Pride tat.
I personally actually like Brock more as a character, and think he is the best thing to happen to MMA in quite some time. I just think Cain is the better fighter. I think he is faster, technically better on the feet, and is probably just as good a wrestler. his stamina might be better, but Brock might be fine there also. Both guys seem to have good heart and sturdy beards. But people who think that Lesnar is just going to bully Cain around, even though he could not really even bully Randy are mistaken IMO.
^^^^^ I think at +105 Cain is a horrible bet ,at +200 it would probably be worth a shot( I still wouldnt bet it at +200 )
I would lay 5K on Cain @ +200. Not kidding.
ManBoobKilla
07-09-2010, 03:47 PM
Well good. I don't want a consensus with my upset pick.
Im with you definatly! I think Cain will beat Lesnar. The difference between Carwin and Cain is Cain has cardio for days, Better technical boxing, he is faster, and still has KO power. And I believe he is a better athlete. Cain via rd2 tko
^^^^^ I think at +105 Cain is a horrible bet ,at +200 it would probably be worth a shot( I still wouldnt bet it at +200 )
I would lay 5K on Cain @ +200. Not kidding.
You're calling Cain for this fight too? I seriously think Cain is a lock. Hell, I will try to save enough money so I even have 5k to put down to begin with.
You're calling Cain for this fight too? I seriously think Cain is a lock. Hell, I will try to save enough money so I even have 5k to put down to begin with.
I think that's a rather liberal use of the term "lock."
Well good. I don't want a consensus with my upset pick.
Im with you definatly! I think Cain will beat Lesnar. The difference between Carwin and Cain is Cain has cardio for days, Better technical boxing, he is faster, and still has KO power. And I believe he is a better athlete. Cain via rd2 tko
Again how do you know Cain has great cardio? I keep hearing this but I'm not getting any answers.
I heard a ton of people "say" Carwin had great cardio and the 5th round would be his best and we see how that went.
Cain was tired at the end of the Kongo fight and that was a 3 rounder
^^^^^ I think at +105 Cain is a horrible bet ,at +200 it would probably be worth a shot( I still wouldnt bet it at +200 )
I would lay 5K on Cain @ +200. Not kidding.
I had someone offer me Cain at +200 and I could lay 1200 to win 2400 before the odds came out and I passed
I think that's a rather liberal use of the term "lock."
I think thats the dumbest use of the term lock I've ever heard
^^^^^ I think at +105 Cain is a horrible bet ,at +200 it would probably be worth a shot( I still wouldnt bet it at +200 )
I would lay 5K on Cain @ +200. Not kidding.
I had someone offer me Cain at +200 and I could lay 1200 to win 2400 before the odds came out and I passed
Wish I knew that guy. I would have done it just to hedge. No way cain should be +200, he should not even be +140 or +150 IMO.
I'm not sure I'd use lock. But this kinda reminds me of GSP-Hughes 2. I think I have enough info. on both fighters to give Cain a legit edge in the fight...Once again, jusy my opinion.
Wish I knew that guy. I would have done it just to hedge. No way cain should be +200, he should not even be +140 or +150 IMO.
I would have done it just to hedge but I thought the line was going to open around -220 so there was no point. Had I knew it was going to be this low I could of made a quick 500
edman5555
07-09-2010, 05:45 PM
Cain has better stand up, better BJJ, and better cardio. He might not be able to outwrestle Brock in the beginning but if he can wear him down..yes I think he will out wrestle him. Cain also has the ability to mix up wrestling and striking much better than Brock which will make Brocks takedowns much harder to pull off.
How do you know Cain has better cardio? Because someone told you he did? I saw people and websites were saying Carwins best round was the 5th lol.
No I'm not stupid so I don't listen to what "someone told me". I don't know where you heard his best round was the 5th. Kind of a dumb thing to mention but thanks anyways. He seems to fight hard pretty long in all his fights. In addition to that he weighs about 245. You saw what happen to Shane who weighed 280 pounds, he punched himself out. If that was Cain throwing those punches he would not have gassed like that. I don't think there are many fighters who have ever gassed that quick after the first round. Weight has a lot to do with it.
edman5555
07-09-2010, 05:47 PM
Lesnar went from -125 to -150 on Sportsbook. I can't wait to make a shitload off this when Cain gets great underdog odds! ::moneybag::
That's exactly what I'm hoping for. Soon enough everyone will forget the assraping Brock took in that first round and just think "oh well he beat Carwin, hes the best!"
edman5555
07-09-2010, 05:51 PM
Well good. I don't want a consensus with my upset pick.
Im with you definatly! I think Cain will beat Lesnar. The difference between Carwin and Cain is Cain has cardio for days, Better technical boxing, he is faster, and still has KO power. And I believe he is a better athlete. Cain via rd2 tko
Again how do you know Cain has great cardio? I keep hearing this but I'm not getting any answers.
I heard a ton of people "say" Carwin had great cardio and the 5th round would be his best and we see how that went.
Cain was tired at the end of the Kongo fight and that was a 3 rounder
None of us ever said Carwin had great cardio. His trainer said that, and of course we all know not to believe whatever they say. It was a obvious question mark because he had never been out of the first round.
So the fact Cain "He seems to fight hard pretty long in all his fights." means he can go 5 rounds with an 280 pound division 1 wrestling champ ?
sure ok
Cain will be giving up 40 pounds, 3-4 inches in height and 4 inches in reach in this fight.
Cain couldnt hold Rothwell down at all how the heck is he going to hold Lesnar down whos bigger,stronger and a way better wrestler than Rothwell?
Cain was tired at the end of the 3rd round against Kongo trying to hold Kongo down who has zero ground game and is way smaller and weaker than Lesnar.If he's tired holding Kongo down who has no clue what to do on the ground how will he not gas out with Lesnar?
Kongo was able to take Cain down twice in there fight so you think Lesnar is going to have problems? I dont
Kongo was able to put the double underhooks on Cain and move him around just fine until he was taken down. Lesnar should have no problem doing the same until he can secure a takedown
Being technically better counts for alot more when two guys are the same size which in this case they are not. The size difference in this fight will be like putting BJ Penn against Machida again
edman5555
07-09-2010, 06:22 PM
Brock was 265 for his last fight. He was cutting from 280 because he was carrying fat on him. Cain is 245. That is a 20 pound difference.
I'm going with Cain having good cardio. Going at a solid pace for three rounds is enough evidence in and of itself for "good cardio." That doesn't mean he will beat Brock, but I do think it means he'll at least match Brock in the cardio department.
Maybe I nees to watch the Kongo fight again. because I remember being impressed at the fact that Cain looked like he could go another 3 or 4 rounds at the end.
As for having trouble holding Ben down...well, you can say that Brock had trouble holding Randy down, and a walking zombie in Big Nog was able to hold Randy down and control him. Also, has ANYONE ever held down Ben for extended periods? I seem to recall that being the worst ass kicking that Ben has ever recieved, but then again, Cain seems to put on alot of those worst ass kickings. He has beat Kongo, Ben, and Nog like no one ever has.
BTW, why is cain all of a sudden going to have huge problems with this big wrestler in MMA, when he had little problems with these huge wrestlers in college?
Brock was 265 for his last fight. He was cutting from 280 because he was carrying fat on him. Cain is 245. That is a 20 pound difference.
Cain was 242 and 238 in his last two fights
Brock cuts to 265 for weigh ins and then hydrates up to 280 for fight night.
280 -240 is 40 pounds
And Brock wasnt carrying fat .I saw a workout video from 3 weeks before the fight and Lesnar was ripped then.
Where do you get your info at?
Maybe I nees to watch the Kongo fight again. because I remember being impressed at the fact that Cain looked like he could go another 3 or 4 rounds at the end.
As for having trouble holding Ben down...well, you can say that Brock had trouble holding Randy down, and a walking zombie in Big Nog was able to hold Randy down and control him. Also, has ANYONE ever held down Ben for extended periods? I seem to recall that being the worst ass kicking that Ben has ever recieved, but then again, Cain seems to put on alot of those worst ass kickings. He has beat Kongo, Ben, and Nog like no one ever has.
BTW, why is cain all of a sudden going to have huge problems with this big wrestler in MMA, when he had little problems with these huge wrestlers in college?
Never said he would have huge problems with the wrestling .I think hes going to have huge problems with the size difference
edman5555
07-09-2010, 06:35 PM
Brock claimed he did not have to cut at all for the fight against Carwin. He said due to diverticulosis he changed his diet and now he weighs 265. I get my info from Brock Lesnar.
Brock claimed he did not have to cut at all for the fight against Carwin. .
Brock was 265 for his last fight. He was cutting from 280 because he was carrying fat on him.
You just claimed he had to cut from 280 to lose fat ,now you're claiming he didnt cut at all .Which is it?
edman5555
07-09-2010, 06:49 PM
Both. He cut from 280 before he had diverticulosis. Diverticulosis is caused by a very bad diet. It was that diet that caused him to weigh 280 pounds as well.
Now he eats very differently, because he has no choice. He can literally die if he doesn't eat right. Because of that, he is carrying less fat. Now he weighs 265.
Maybe I nees to watch the Kongo fight again. because I remember being impressed at the fact that Cain looked like he could go another 3 or 4 rounds at the end.
As for having trouble holding Ben down...well, you can say that Brock had trouble holding Randy down, and a walking zombie in Big Nog was able to hold Randy down and control him. Also, has ANYONE ever held down Ben for extended periods? I seem to recall that being the worst ass kicking that Ben has ever recieved, but then again, Cain seems to put on alot of those worst ass kickings. He has beat Kongo, Ben, and Nog like no one ever has.
BTW, why is cain all of a sudden going to have huge problems with this big wrestler in MMA, when he had little problems with these huge wrestlers in college?
Never said he would have huge problems with the wrestling .I think hes going to have huge problems with the size difference
In what regard? Is Cain going to have problems with the size of Lesnars punches? Where will Lesnar size play out if not for the wrestling? Please do not say in his punching power. For all the hype, Lesnar has proved he could knock down Randy after a fairly even couple of rounds on the feet with him. I firmly believe Cain would knock Randy on his ass quicker than he knocked Big Nog on his ass.
just having a real problem seeing where this massive size advantage will play out.
Both. He cut from 280 before he had diverticulosis. Diverticulosis is caused by a very bad diet. It was that diet that caused him to weigh 280 pounds as well.
.
So you are telling me Brock weighed 265 for the weigh in and 265 for the fight?
My head hurts
I's gives up .
This fight could be 6 months away ,I'll be back in 5 to discuss this more
Both. He cut from 280 before he had diverticulosis. Diverticulosis is caused by a very bad diet. It was that diet that caused him to weigh 280 pounds as well.
Now he eats very differently, because he has no choice. He can literally die if he doesn't eat right. Because of that, he is carrying less fat. Now he weighs 265.
Actually, this is pretty much exactly what Brock said. If true(Why would lesnar lie about this), I would say the size advantage(weight wise) would be around 25 lbs.
I'm pretty sure it's true that Brock said he did not cut for this fight and weighs a steady 265 today.
ManBoobKilla
07-09-2010, 07:35 PM
Well good. I don't want a consensus with my upset pick.
Im with you definatly! I think Cain will beat Lesnar. The difference between Carwin and Cain is Cain has cardio for days, Better technical boxing, he is faster, and still has KO power. And I believe he is a better athlete. Cain via rd2 tko
Again how do you know Cain has great cardio? I keep hearing this but I'm not getting any answers.
I heard a ton of people "say" Carwin had great cardio and the 5th round would be his best and we see how that went.
Cain was tired at the end of the Kongo fight and that was a 3 rounder
Based on what every single person that has ever trained with Cain says about him having crazy cardio and in the Kongo fight he was on him the entire time. i dont think he was tired in that fight
edman5555
07-09-2010, 07:46 PM
If I remember correctly he was punching like crazy that whole fight. Punching like his name was Shane Carwin, just he didnt gas( and yes I know he doesn't hit as hard).
This fight is confirmed for UFC 121 in Anaheim, October 23.
http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/b ... r-ufc-121/ (http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/brock-lesnar-vs-cain-velasquez-signed-for-ufc-121/)
This fight is confirmed for UFC 121 in Anaheim, October 23.
http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/b ... r-ufc-121/ (http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/brock-lesnar-vs-cain-velasquez-signed-for-ufc-121/)
OMFG OMFG OMFG that's like 15 minutes away from me. I'M GOING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This fight is confirmed for UFC 121 in Anaheim, October 23.
http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/b ... r-ufc-121/ (http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/brock-lesnar-vs-cain-velasquez-signed-for-ufc-121/)
I thought I read Rampage-Machida and Sam Stout -Paul Taylor were also on the UFC 121 card but I could be wrong
This fight is confirmed for UFC 121 in Anaheim, October 23.
http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/b ... r-ufc-121/ (http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/07/09/brock-lesnar-vs-cain-velasquez-signed-for-ufc-121/)
I thought I read Rampage-Machida and Sam Stout -Paul Taylor were also on the UFC 121 card but I could be wrong
Yeah. Also Vitor rumored to fight the Chael/Anderson winner. Probably won't happen after this announcement though. Still could be a sweet card.
Hot damn, I live in Anaheim. And the Honda Center is the shit.
Hot damn, I live in Anaheim. And the Honda Center is the shit.
So you are southbaysurf
I knew it
Hot damn, I live in Anaheim. And the Honda Center is the shit.
Wow you live really close to me then.
Lets not start saying Cain will handle Lesnar just because he wrestled big guys in college. Kole Konrad beat him in College yet Konrads style translated horribly. Also, we have yet to see Cain take a punch from someone as strong as Lesnar so who's to say he won't shoot and get sprawled on then blasted a few times and be rocked? Is it that far fetched an idea? Kongo rocked him at least twice in their fight from what I remember.
As far as the weight issue it could very well be a 25lb difference but it could also be 30lbs by the fight. Brock could pack on another 5lbs of muscle by then now that he's back to training full time and no longer has to worry about the year long layoff.
Lets not start saying Cain will handle Lesnar just because he wrestled big guys in college. Kole Konrad beat him in College yet Konrads style translated horribly. Also, we have yet to see Cain take a punch from someone as strong as Lesnar so who's to say he won't shoot and get sprawled on then blasted a few times and be rocked? Is it that far fetched an idea? Kongo rocked him at least twice in their fight from what I remember.
As far as the weight issue it could very well be a 25lb difference but it could also be 30lbs by the fight. Brock could pack on another 5lbs of muscle by then now that he's back to training full time and no longer has to worry about the year long layoff.
Cain by 1st degree murder.
Stay by your phone. You may need to report a hate crime.
Don't you know anything? It's only a hate crime when a white man does it... Wait, thats what you meant isn't it? Makes sense then.
Don't you know anything? It's only a hate crime when a white man does it... Wait, thats what you meant isn't it? Makes sense then.
LOL
Touche.
Court McGee likely to meet Ryan Jensen at UFC 121
MMA_scientist
07-15-2010, 11:21 AM
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/308.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)
265 lb 2009 NCAA champion Mark Ellis joins AKA.
http://mmadiehards.com/features/mark-el ... ka-stable/ (http://mmadiehards.com/features/mark-ellis-the-newest-member-of-the-aka-stable/)
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/308.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)
Line keeps getting higher. No way I'm betting anymore than 1 unit at -130 or higher.
edman5555
07-16-2010, 10:02 PM
Cain is going to finish off at +200 or better IMO. It's still early for bets on him but if you look at the trend...He started at -105 and now he is up to +150. As the fight nears everyone will pour in on Lesnar. Everyone will forget how close Lesnar came to getting beat when he fought Carwin. They will just remember him winning and sleep on Cain. Nobody has seen Cain fight in a while either, that doesn't help his cause. I think he has a great chance of winning. Just like Shane did, and still does.
edman5555
07-16-2010, 10:13 PM
I have a question. What will Brocks actual fight weight be. He said he was 265 for Carwin, not cutting any weight. Does anyone beleive that? It seems reasnable to me but I guess he could lie.
I have a question. What will Brocks actual fight weight be. He said he was 265 for Carwin, not cutting any weight. Does anyone beleive that? It seems reasnable to me but I guess he could lie.
I say 275 -280. I dont believe he was 265 for the Carwin fight but I have no proof.
I mean if he wasnt cutting anything why would he have weighed right at 265? Why not 264 ,264.5 or 263? Again I have no proof so Im just guessing
edman5555
07-16-2010, 11:57 PM
Yeah exactly. That was suspect to me too. But he did make a beleivable point..since his disease which was diet induced, he has been eating a much healthier(im presuming lower fat) diet. And I bet his camp is the max of professional sports trainers so they could have decided that since brock was down to the 265 range because he dropped a lot of his body fat that he could work out and build muscle up to the 265 mark.
I don't know if that makes sense when i type it but it does in my head. I'm saying they can keep his weight at exactly 265 pounds because they are the top of the line professionals at it. It sounds suspect that he weighs 265 but if he dropped enough fat and weighed 280 to begin with...with a proper regimen you could actually pinpoint your weight if you had the right group behind you.
It's also possible that he had to cut weight, but it was only something like 2 or 3 pounds. So for all intents and purposes, Lesnar essentially "doesn't have to cut weight" and maintains around the 265 mark.
Jake Shields Announces UFC 121 Fight With Martin Kampmann .Its official now
Should be a good fight.
WAR KAMPMANN!
MMA_scientist
07-19-2010, 05:15 PM
Nice test for Shields... Kampmann impressed the hell out of me against Thiago, but I think Shields will win it.
Mr. IWS
07-19-2010, 05:17 PM
Nice test for Shields... Kampmann impressed the hell out of me against Thiago, but I think Shields will win it.
agree on both counts.
Shields should win, if Kampmann doesn't sprawl and brawl him to death. That Technical striking is a killer for a guy like Shields.
I think in a three round fight Shields can win a decision. I don't see Kampmann having enough time in fifteen minutes to land the amount of strikes he'd need to for a TKO. I also don't think he can avoid the takedown forever while doing it in a three round fight. I'd put this at a 60-40 scenario leaning toward Shields.
The likely outcome is Shields will eventually get the takedown after eating a bunch of punches that didn't collectively scramble his eggs and ride Kampmann out or submit him from top position.
^^^ If you think its 60/40 for Shields you wont be betting him .I'm guessing the line is going alot higher than 60/40 but I could be wrong
Your right, Luke, I probably won't touch this fight either way. I want to see how Shields stacks up against a top level measuring stick. Thats not to say Kampmann is anywhere near top flight but he just exposed one guy who was over hyped, and he has the skill set to expose Shields if Shields is indeed not on par to be in the UFC. This fight will help Me truly gauge where Shields really is on the pecking order for future reference.
^^^ I think you're misusing the term "exposed."
Kimbo got exposed. Thiago did not get exposed because he lost to Kampmann. Kampmann wasn't being given enough credit going into that fight.
Paulo Thiago was being ranked #5-#6 Welterweight in the world by some sites going into that fight. Kampmann wasn't being given credit, he was being fed to Thiago. Point blank Paulo got exposed for having a wide angled striking game where hitting hard is more important than being technical along with having a bottom game that leaves a little something to be desired on the ground. Exposed is an appropriate word I think.
MMA_scientist
07-19-2010, 11:20 PM
Your right, Luke, I probably won't touch this fight either way. I want to see how Shields stacks up against a top level measuring stick. Thats not to say Kampmann is anywhere near top flight but he just exposed one guy who was over hyped, and he has the skill set to expose Shields if Shields is indeed not on par to be in the UFC. This fight will help Me truly gauge where Shields really is on the pecking order for future reference.
Wins over Henderson, Daley, Condit, Okami do nothing for you... but a win over Kampann will prove if he belongs...
Shields is clearly top 10. He belongs in any organization he wants to fight in. That said, he'll never be champ.
Can't wait for Shields to fail in the UFC. If he ends up with the title then GOOOOOOOD DAMN.
Daley would do nothing for Me either way. Henderson was an injured 39 year old who had trouble making weight. Shields beat Okami before he became the force he was in the Middleweight division where he rattled off wins against the likes of Swick, Belcher, Tanner, Lister, etc etc etc.
I may not have made Myself totally clear as to what I meant. When I said Kampmann would serve as a measuring stick I meant as to whether Shields is a top 5 Welterweight and a title contender in the UFC. If he gets handled by Kampmann standing and manages a last round takedown and sub it's unlikely he ever sniffs the sweat on that belt. If he avoids getting picked apart and dominates Kampmann on the ground enroute to a submission/unanimous decision win then he can get matched up with the Alves/Fitch/Koscheck type opponents at the top of the ladder. Though I don't think he ever gets that far to be honest.
^^Let's be real. If he beats Kampmann, he's getting a title shot. The UFC wants new challengers. He won't be going thru a Fitch or Alves.
Hell, I'd prefer he fight GSP right now. Fuck this dumb Koscheck rematch and 8 months off for TUF gayness.
MMA_scientist
07-20-2010, 09:23 AM
It just occured to me how many wrestlers there are at 170. There are no great bjj guys @ WW that I can think of in any organization. Weird. Even the up and comers are wrestlers. Shields is going to have a hell of a time @ WW in the UFC. I wish Maia would drop to 170 and shake the division up (though I don't think he could make 170).
Shields = Hughes to GSP (though Shields is a much more technical grappler). If he can't get on top, he can't win. I would actually like to see Shields/Hughes. Either it would be the battle of the worst strikers in history or a hell of a fight to get a takedown.
Paulo Thiago was being ranked #5-#6 Welterweight in the world by some sites going into that fight. Kampmann wasn't being given credit, he was being fed to Thiago. Point blank Paulo got exposed for having a wide angled striking game where hitting hard is more important than being technical along with having a bottom game that leaves a little something to be desired on the ground. Exposed is an appropriate word I think.
Perhaps we're using different definitions for the word "exposed." To me, a fighter is "exposed" when they're hyped as a killer and fed a bunch of low-level fighters and then get their shit pushed in the first time they fight someone in the top 25. Thiago doesn't fit this bill. He might would have legitimately beat Kos before the early stoppage, and he did legitimately beat Volkmann (not super impressive, but whatever) and Swick.
I'd say that in the Thiago/Kampmann fight we "learned more" about Thiago, rather than him being exposed. You act like it wasn't already obvious from other fights that he wasn't a really technical striker.
Yeah, all I saw was that Kampmann was being underrated after getting blasted out of the park by Daley. I only thought Thiago would win because Kampmann's affinity for blocking punches with his chin, and he was very different and conservative in this fight. An impressive performance from Kampmann, certainly no expose of Thiago.
Yeah, all I saw was that Kampmann was being underrated after getting blasted out of the park by Daley.
After seeing both of their most recent performances, I have no doubt at all that Kampmann would've beat Daley if he had come in with a different gameplan. Instead, he decided to let his ego get in the way and to try to prove that he's an equal striker. If Kampmann had gone to what is now arguably (or is it even arguable?) his strength--his ground game--then Kampmann would've gotten the win, which probably would've gotten him the title shot, which would no doubt have been more interesting than GSP vs Hardy.
Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago Confirmed for UFC 121 -
http://5thRound.com/YaP
poopoo333
07-21-2010, 03:53 PM
Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago Confirmed for UFC 121 -
http://5thRound.com/YaP
I saw this earlier. Interesting
Mr. IWS
07-21-2010, 04:14 PM
I think paulo pushes his shit in.
Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor confirmed for UFC 121 in Anaheim
I think paulo pushes his shit in.
I think I agree.
So Diego gets run out of the LW division by BJ. Then comes back to WW, where he finds out he can't hang with the top guys.
So the next thing he knows he's 0-3 and without a home. Where does Diego go?
Mr. IWS
07-21-2010, 04:40 PM
Get Uriah Faber on the line............diego is on a liquid diet after Thiago Rapes his ass BOPE style.
Lets not jump the gun here guys. He got his shit pushed in by BJ Penn who has eaten Wrestlers with average striking alive his entire career. He went back to Welterweight for the first time in over a year and a half (since he started his career at Lightweight against Joe Stevenson at UFC95 if I remember right) and got outboxed by a very long Hathaway who is clearly a more accomplished striker and had an above average sprawl. It's not like he just went 0-2 to scrubs who he should have beaten.
He has the skillset to beat Paulo Thiago who was just shown to have a less than stellar bottom game. Diego has never been submitted against the likes of BJ Penn(who he didn't spend any time on the ground with really), Nick Diaz, or Karo Parysian. 7 of Paulo's 8 submission victories came from the top at least in how he got to the positions. I've not been impressed with his bottom game and if Sanchez takes him down we know Sanchez has above average top control as well as extensive submission skills both offensive and defensively. I can see this one going to Diego by way of unanimous decision.
MMA_scientist
07-22-2010, 09:18 AM
Diego is an underrated grappler. There is 0% chace Paulo subs him. Actually, I would give the bjj advantage to Diego. He went liek 15 minutes with Marcelo Garcia in ADCC before he started training in bjj. He started as a whitebelt with Saulo Ribiero after he left Jackson's and earned his blackbelt the traditional way. Saulo is old school as hell. He would not be giving a blackbelt for advertising, unlike Rolles who gave a blackbelt to Rashad. I am sure Rashad could beat most blackbelts in bjj, but I seriously doubt he has a blackbelt level guard or submission skills.
Anyway, Diego is legit on the gound, unless he is nearly unconscious from a shot, he is not going to get subbed by Paulo.
That said, Diego has overrated striking and wrestling. And he is a lot smaller than Paulo. So Paulo may win, but not by submission.
Diego is an underrated grappler. There is 0% chace Paulo subs him. Actually, I would give the bjj advantage to Diego. He went liek 15 minutes with Marcelo Garcia in ADCC before he started training in bjj. He started as a whitebelt with Saulo Ribiero after he left Jackson's and earned his blackbelt the traditional way. Saulo is old school as hell. He would not be giving a blackbelt for advertising, unlike Rolles who gave a blackbelt to Rashad. I am sure Rashad could beat most blackbelts in bjj, but I seriously doubt he has a blackbelt level guard or submission skills.
Anyway, Diego is legit on the gound, unless he is nearly unconscious from a shot, he is not going to get subbed by Paulo.
That said, Diego has overrated striking and wrestling. And he is a lot smaller than Paulo. So Paulo may win, but not by submission.
It looks like they both have overrated striking then. If I had to give the edge I'd give it to Paulo and only because he has shown more one strike KO power in his hands. However Diego is easily the faster of the two and I think he can snag a few takedowns and grind this one out.
poopoo333
07-22-2010, 11:56 AM
Just read on sherdog that Tito/Forrest 3 is in talks for this card. Probably not true though
Just read on sherdog that Tito/Forrest 3 is in talks for this card. Probably not true though
Wouldnt surprise me
Just read on sherdog that Tito/Forrest 3 is in talks for this card. Probably not true though
Tito needs to fucking fight CHUCK!
Mr. IWS
07-22-2010, 01:37 PM
^^^^^^^^^This
I dont care which guy he fights, Im going against Tito.
MMA_scientist
07-22-2010, 01:41 PM
Tito/Shamrock 4. Who's with me?
poopoo333
07-22-2010, 01:55 PM
I don't want to see Tito fight Forrest again, I want to see Tito actually win a fight. I feel bad for that guy
MMA_scientist
07-22-2010, 02:06 PM
^ I don't. When he was young and good he shit all everyone and everything. Now that he is old and sucky, he wants to be revered as some iconic figure. He burned all his bridges and no one would pay him, then he had to come crawling back to Dana with his tail between his legs.
I feel that he is partially retarded though, so I do feel a little bad for him in that sense.
I want to see him fight someone new though. Someone relevant. Thiago Silva or Bones or Hammill or Franklin or someone. I would rather see him rematch Randy than Forrest.
Mr. IWS
07-22-2010, 02:33 PM
I feel that he is partially retarded though, so I do feel a little bad for him in that sense.
lol
poopoo333
07-22-2010, 03:20 PM
WHAT THE FUCK
http://mmajunkie.com/news/20019/matt-ha ... ctober.mma (http://mmajunkie.com/news/20019/matt-hamill-vs-tito-ortiz-added-to-ufc-121-in-october.mma)
oh and schaub vs gonzaga as well was addded
Mr. IWS
07-22-2010, 03:33 PM
WHAT THE FUCK
http://mmajunkie.com/news/20019/matt-ha ... ctober.mma (http://mmajunkie.com/news/20019/matt-hamill-vs-tito-ortiz-added-to-ufc-121-in-october.mma)
oh and schaub vs gonzaga as well was addded
http://img232.imageshack.us/img232/7906/isthisreallife.jpg
MMA_scientist
07-22-2010, 03:34 PM
That was one of my matchups for him. I like that a lot better. And Gonzaga/Schaub = awesome. Great matchmaking right there.
poopoo333
07-22-2010, 03:35 PM
That was one of my matchups for him. I like that a lot better. And Gonzaga/Schaub = awesome. Great matchmaking right there.
The matchup is fine, but it's just weird how Tito was basically giving Hamill a blowjob on TUF3 and now they have to fight. Tito also goes to Matt's fights to support him still.
MMA_scientist
07-22-2010, 03:42 PM
There has to be a storyline to every Tito fight, because otherwise no one would care. He is not even close to being relevant, and his style is boring... so they have to manufacture drama for him.
There has to be a storyline to every Tito fight, because otherwise no one would care. He is not even close to being relevant, and his style is boring... so they have to manufacture drama for him.
didnt work ,I still could careless about this fight
poopoo333
07-22-2010, 11:39 PM
I guess Madsen/Duffee is added as well.
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/308.png
Way ,way too high for Shields(-365) imo
LOL at Ortiz being a dog(+120) to Hamil
MMA_scientist
07-23-2010, 04:36 PM
Agreed, will put something on Kampman at those odds. I think Shields will win, but I would put him at like -220
will put something on Kampman at those odds. I think Shields will win, but I would put him at like -220
100% agree ::handshake::
LOL at Ortiz being a dog(+120) to Hamil
Are you going to bet on Ortiz? Do you think he wins?
Agreed, will put something on Kampman at those odds. I think Shields will win, but I would put him at like -220
Yeah, I'll ride Kampmann again at those odds.
LOL at Ortiz being a dog(+120) to Hamil
Are you going to bet on Ortiz? Do you think he wins?
If I was sure Ortiz wouldnt gas after 1 round I'd 100% bet him as a dog.
MMA_scientist
07-23-2010, 05:30 PM
I think if Tito was healthy he would be a goog dog... I think his striking defense is good enough to not get hurt too badly and may get the better of Hammill. And I think at some point a healthy Tito would put Hammill on his back.
But coming off of his 100th back surgery... anything is just a roll of the dice. No bet for me.
I think if Tito was healthy he would be a goog dog... I think his striking defense is good enough to not get hurt too badly and may get the better of Hammill. And I think at some point a healthy Tito would put Hammill on his back.
But coming off of his 100th back surgery... anything is just a roll of the dice. No bet for me.
I want to hear how his camp is going before I make a decision. Talent wise I think Tito is clearly a level above Hamil .
This really comes down to a wrestling match for once between two wrestlers since they're striking sucks ass. Whoever lands the takedowns and spends more time on top wins this one.
Svino
07-23-2010, 10:38 PM
This really comes down to a wrestling match for once between two wrestlers since they're striking sucks ass. Whoever lands the takedowns and spends more time on top wins this one.
Or neither guy can take the other guy down reliably, and the fight becomes a Bad Kickboxing(TM) match.
Hamill's striking actually isn't that bad. It looks funky, but the fact of the matter is that he lands a lot of shots and apparently has plenty of power.
I'll have to see more from him than outstriking Kieth Jardine and Mark Munoz who has no business at Light Heavyweight before I'm convinced his striking isn't bad persay. He certainly has power and he has a wider arsenal of strikes than Tito but Tito is also very seasoned and can take a beating without being put away(see Tito/Machida). You're right, Svino, this very well could turn into a horrible striking match which would suck like a starved hooker with braces on.
I'll have to see more from him than outstriking Kieth Jardine and Mark Munoz who has no business at Light Heavyweight before I'm convinced his striking isn't bad persay. He certainly has power and he has a wider arsenal of strikes than Tito but Tito is also very seasoned and can take a beating without being put away(see Tito/Machida). You're right, Svino, this very well could turn into a horrible striking match which would suck like a starved hooker with braces on.
Hey, he beat Jon Jones too, via elbows from the mount.
Gotta consider that as well.
I've made fun of Tito his whole career saying he's one of the most overrated fighters ever and have never bet on him but Hamil is no Evans,Machida,Griffin or Liddell. It all depends on what Tito has left
I'll have to see more from him than outstriking Kieth Jardine and Mark Munoz who has no business at Light Heavyweight before I'm convinced his striking isn't bad persay. He certainly has power and he has a wider arsenal of strikes than Tito but Tito is also very seasoned and can take a beating without being put away(see Tito/Machida). You're right, Svino, this very well could turn into a horrible striking match which would suck like a starved hooker with braces on.
Hey, he beat Jon Jones too, via elbows from the mount.
Gotta consider that as well.
BOL
Thewiseman
07-23-2010, 11:08 PM
I love Kampmann at those odds.
Hey, he beat Jon Jones too, via elbows from the mount.
Gotta consider that as well.
blurp
blurp
What the fuck?
that was my repsonse to this:
Hey, he beat Jon Jones too, via elbows from the mount.
Gotta consider that as well.
Since ZY wasnt around tonight I figured I say something wierd like he usually does
I think Kampmann's going to beat Jake. Kampmann's UFC losses have only come to better strikers. Not saying that Jake can't outgrapple him, but seeing as Kampmann has outgrappled everybody else hes fought.... and that Jake's standup is horrendous in comparison, this is a solid dog bet. I'm really happy with this.
Since ZY wasnt around tonight I figured I say something wierd like he usually does
LOL
I see.
I think Kampmann's going to beat Jake. Kampmann's UFC losses have only come to better strikers. Not saying that Jake can't outgrapple him, but seeing as Kampmann has outgrappled everybody else hes fought.... and that Jake's standup is horrendous in comparison, this is a solid dog bet. I'm really happy with this.
I went ahead and dropped .5u on Kampmann at +285. I have no idea if he can beat Jake, but like you say, his standup will be lightyears ahead of Jake's and his grappling is a force to be reckoned with. My guess is Jake still outgrapples him, but I figure Thiago would too, and we know how that turned out.
edman5555
07-25-2010, 11:15 AM
Kampmann's defended against Paulo thiago, Volmann, and Leites..I know Leited doesn't have dynamic take downs but he is good.
I shields Striking really that horrendous? I know everyone says it is but does he really suck that bad? Because Kampmann is pretty solid standing.
I shields Striking really that horrendous? I know everyone says it is but does he really suck that bad? Because Kampmann is pretty solid standing.
Yeah, it's absolutely atrocious. It's more like a parody of striking, than actual striking. He is literally on the bottom rung. If this were a kickboxing match, Kampmann would win 30-24 probably.
MMA_scientist
07-25-2010, 02:23 PM
Hughes > Shields in the striking department.
But Shields is 100% committed to the a ground fight. He won't give up on it and decide to box. I think he will get the takedown on Kampmann eventually. But Kampann probably does have value. Shields is not a great finisher despite his top control. His submissions are not that great. Kampann will get his chances I think.
edman5555
07-25-2010, 03:11 PM
I'm thinking about putting some money down on Kampmann. It's gotta be hard to get the takedown on a guy who has solid takedown D as well as good standup but he did do it to Hendo. Thats the one fight that kind of has me on the ropes.
MMA_scientist
07-25-2010, 03:57 PM
I'm thinking about putting some money down on Kampmann. It's gotta be hard to get the takedown on a guy who has solid takedown D as well as good standup but he did do it to Hendo. Thats the one fight that kind of has me on the ropes.
If that is all that is holding you back... remember Hendo damn near finished him in the first minute.
Shields had to jump to guard on Lawler. He got him down once, but Lawler popped back up. Then he at a lot of leather and couldn't get Lawler down. Then he jumped into a guillotine. Still, he really couldn't control Lawler or take him down.
That said, Kampmann has not shown that he has a lot of one punch power.
While he doesn't have a lot of one punch KO power he is easily a more technical striker than either Hendo or Lawlor. He has a good sprawl and while it's not likely that he avoids every takedown Jake shoots for, his ground game should be good enough to keep out of submissions. Kampmann is very much capable of winning this fight.
Svino
07-25-2010, 07:22 PM
Kampmann's defended against Paulo thiago, Volmann, and Leites..I know Leited doesn't have dynamic take downs but he is good.
I shields Striking really that horrendous? I know everyone says it is but does he really suck that bad? Because Kampmann is pretty solid standing.
Yeah, Shields is really bad on the feet. But IMO, he'll be able to get takedowns on Kampmann all day. Kampmann doesn't really have great takedown defense, and he won't have the strength advantage on Shields that some of his MW opponents did.
edman5555
07-25-2010, 11:10 PM
I'm thinking about putting some money down on Kampmann. It's gotta be hard to get the takedown on a guy who has solid takedown D as well as good standup but he did do it to Hendo. Thats the one fight that kind of has me on the ropes.
If that is all that is holding you back... remember Hendo damn near finished him in the first minute.
Shields had to jump to guard on Lawler. He got him down once, but Lawler popped back up. Then he at a lot of leather and couldn't get Lawler down. Then he jumped into a guillotine. Still, he really couldn't control Lawler or take him down.
That said, Kampmann has not shown that he has a lot of one punch power.
Yeah I just rewatched the fight and I saw Hendo almost finished it in the first..but afte that Shields out wrestled/grappled him.
Yeah I just rewatched the fight and I saw Hendo almost finished it in the first..but afte that Shields out wrestled/grappled him.
I guess Shields will probably win. So if you put money on him then you'll probably get some money back.
But considering the question marks, and the outrageous line, I would go Kampmann or nothing. But that's just me.
edman5555
07-26-2010, 12:44 AM
shields dec is the best prop bet.
MMA_scientist
07-26-2010, 09:34 AM
Yeah, I doubt Shields finishes him. Unlike Hendo, Kampmann is going to re-guard Shields when he gets passed, which he probably will. Shields has some nice passing skills.
edman5555
07-27-2010, 12:20 PM
I just can't see Kampmann stopping the takedown efficiently..He is no Dan Henderson, 39 years old or not, slightly gassed or not. His standup probably won't be rocking shields either. Dan hits like a TON of bricks and Shields recovered from that. Most likely Kampmann wins some ground on standup but loses a little bit more by getting taken down.
What do you think about Kampmann/Shields Submission ability Scientist?
It doesn't look like Kampmann has been submitted before and he has whipped out quite a few submissions. I noticed Jake had Hendo in some precarious situations submission wise but Hendo also had Jake in some sticky situations. I might have to watch Thales Leites/MArtin K. If they went to the ground at all it might be telling. I know Thales is a real wizard down there.
Final bet im considering: Shields by Dec prop if I am reasonably convinced Kampmann can defend the sub.
MMA_scientist
07-27-2010, 12:25 PM
I don't think Shields will sub him. Shields has a nice passing game and control, but his subs are not overwhelming. No way Kampmann will sub Shields. Up until recently Shields was viewed as sort of wet blanket no real finishing skills. I think he still struggles to finish decent grapplers. I mean, he had Henderson mounted for like 15 minutes and couldn't pound him out or summit him. Hendo has been subbed several times. I think Shields by decision is pretty likely.
Mr. IWS
08-08-2010, 04:31 PM
Cain Training with Bobby Lashley
http://www.heavy.com/mma/mma-videos/ufc ... -and-more/ (http://www.heavy.com/mma/mma-videos/ufc-videos/2010/08/video-cain-velasquez-talks-lesnar-lashley-and-more/)
Thewiseman
08-09-2010, 11:55 AM
2u on Kampmann
Mr. IWS
08-17-2010, 11:20 AM
Dam this card looks fuckin great
UFC Heavyweight Championship
Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez
Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann
Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez
Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill
Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
* Todd Duffee vs. Jon Madsen
* Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor
* Court McGee vs. Ryan Jensen
* Dongi Yang vs. Chris Camozzi
Another card that looks at good as 117
poopoo333
08-17-2010, 01:09 PM
Duffee is going to murder Madsen.
edman5555
08-17-2010, 05:06 PM
Duffee is going to murder Madsen.
Madsen isn't that bad.
poopoo333
08-17-2010, 09:19 PM
Duffee is going to murder Madsen.
Madsen isn't that bad.
Never said he was. But I don't think Madsen will be able to take Duffee down easily and hold him there, and he is going to be forced to stand up and fight him.
It doesnt look like its going to be Duffee-Madsen
Gilbert Yvel, Jon Madsen to meet at UFC 121
A heavyweight clash between Las Vegas-based Gilbert Yvel and "The Ultimate Fighter" alum Jon Madsen has been added to the UFC 121 card Oct. 23, according to sources close to the event.
Several websites initially reported Madsen would face heavyweight prospect Todd Duffee, but multiple sources told the Las Vegas Sun Tuesday that Duffee will likely not compete on the card.
Bout agreements for the new matchup should be signed within the week.
Yvel (36-15-1) will be looking to rebound from back-to-back losses in his first two appearances in the UFC octagon.
The 34-year-old fighter suffered a first-round TKO loss to Junior Dos Santos in his debut with the company at UFC 108 on Jan. 2. In his most recent fight, Yvel dropped a unanimous decision to Ben Rothwell in June.
Madsen (6-0) has had no trouble adjusting to his transition to the UFC, posting three straight decision wins since his appearance on the tenth season of TUF.
The former collegiate wrestler went 1-1 while on the show, eventually falling by knockout to Brendan Schaub in the quarterfinals.
UFC 121 is scheduled to take place at the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., and will be headlined by a heavyweight title fight between defending champion Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez.
^^^ Why do you use that code tag?
^^^ Why do you use that code tag?
Because Jens Pulver lost 8 of his last 9 fights.
^^^ Why do you use that code tag?
Because Jens Pulver lost 8 of his last 9 fights.
OVER THE LINE!
Ludo, this is not Nam. There are rules.
^^^ Why do you use that code tag?
Because Jens Pulver lost 8 of his last 9 fights.
OVER THE LINE!
Ludo, this is not Nam. There are rules.
Sorry man, I was stuck in a flashback. Whatever you do look out for them charlies up in the trees.
^^^ Why do you use that code tag?
It was a mistake .Code and quote are side by side and I hit the wrong one.
NOW GET OFF MY FUCKING BACK
::lmao::
Havis Jr
09-06-2010, 01:22 PM
2u Hamill @-160
Svino
09-06-2010, 03:21 PM
2u Hamill @-160
I like Hamill here, also. Putting 3U down on him myself.
I like Hamill here, also. Putting 3U down on him myself.
I'm thinking Hamill, but I wish the line was a little better. I think Bones was the first person to ever put Hamill on his back, so I think Tito will struggle to get Tito down, if that's his gameplan. On the feet, I suppose Tito will be the more technical striker, but he might struggle with Hamill's brute force punches. Also, Tito for damn sure better bring some better cardio this time if he wants to win.
doublearmbar
09-09-2010, 04:11 PM
<embed src="http://blip.tv/play/gZITgfujWQI" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="232" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed>
Mr. IWS
09-09-2010, 04:18 PM
<embed src="http://blip.tv/play/gZITgfujWQI" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="480" height="232" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true"></embed>
::handshake::
doublearmbar
09-09-2010, 05:01 PM
http://a.imageshack.us/img833/5061/dealwithitdoggif.gif
poopoo333
09-09-2010, 11:10 PM
Gonzaga is going to smash Schaub.
[youtube:2sf47z7l]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaqEB8fZGGI[/youtube:2sf47z7l]
[youtube:2sf47z7l]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xg0l0l9qYAM[/youtube:2sf47z7l]
^^^ LOL @ Gonzaga
I've not seen this more whimsical side of him before.
Gonzaga's videos rule. I'm not even kidding.
[youtube:1xary3lf]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TMxX9n6zJk[/youtube:1xary3lf]
[youtube:1xary3lf]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6197Nh7PNQ[/youtube:1xary3lf]
Gonzaga's videos rule. I'm not even kidding.
[youtube:azbqmago]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5TMxX9n6zJk[/youtube:azbqmago]
[youtube:azbqmago]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6197Nh7PNQ[/youtube:azbqmago]
Not sure what the fuck I just watched.
Not sure what the fuck I just watched.
::thumbup::
Not sure what the fuck I just watched.
They're called youtube videos .They have been out for a while ::handshake::
Not sure what the fuck I just watched.
They're called youtube videos .They have been out for a while ::handshake::
::lmao::
Gilbert Yvel vs. Jon Madsen set for UFC 121
Full fight card :
MAIN CARD
•Champ Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez (for heavyweight title)
•Martin Kampmann vs. Jake Shields
•Diego Sanchez vs. Paulo Thiago
•Matt Hamill vs. Tito Ortiz
•Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Brendan Schaub
PRELIMINARY CARD (Spike TV)
•Ryan Jensen vs. Court McGee
•Patrick Cote vs. Tom Lawlor
PRELIMINARY CARD (un-aired)
•Sam Stout vs. Paul Taylor
•Mike Guymon vs. Daniel Roberts
•Chris Camozzi vs. Dongi Yang
•Jon Madsen vs. Gilbert Yvel
MMA_scientist
10-07-2010, 06:04 PM
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/308.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)
I am going big on Cain.
As I have said, I think the wrestling is close... the difference between a d1 champion and a guy who placed 5th is very small... maybe even just the difference between a good day and a bad day. Throw in a cage at the edge of the mat, one guy just trying not to get taken down (not engaging in a takedown battle) and some strikes, and 8 years passage of time... and I think the wrestling is about even...
Then I stated looking closer after what someone on the grappling forum said. If Brock had been wrestling in 2006 when Cain was wrestling, he would not even have been champion. Mocco and Konrad were wrestling during this time period, and both, especially Mocco, are studs that would have beaten Brock IMO. I think Cain might even be a better pure wrestler than Brock, he might have been champion too if he wrestled when Brock did.
Cain has better hands. He is faster and he is not a millionaire. He has to be hungry and training like a psycho. He comes from a better camp with better partners. I am favoring Cain quite a bit now. I don't see that Brock has any advantage at all in this fight except size...
3u on Cain @ +135
Mr. IWS
10-07-2010, 06:10 PM
You dont think the size difference will come into play at all?
I am with you Scientist...BIG TIME.
This will be at least a 20 unit play for me. This is one of those 3 to 5 fights a year that I will hit very hard.
I also agree with you about the wrestling. Cain pretty much never stopped training wrestling. Brock on the other hand spent many years in the pro wrestling circuit not training. Brock wil be bigger, But Cain will be faster and more agile. Like I said earlier, I would not be surprised if Brock spent more time on his back in this contest.
I am with you Scientist...BIG TIME.
This will be at least a 20 unit play for me. This is one of those 3 to 5 fights a year that I will hit very hard.
I also agree with you about the wrestling. Cain pretty much never stopped training wrestling. Brock on the other hand spent many years in the pro wrestling circuit not training. Brock wil be bigger, But Cain will be faster and more agile. Like I said earlier, I would not be surprised if Brock spent more time on his back in this contest.
It doesnt bother you Cain couldnt hold down Rothwell who isnt even close to the wrestler Lesnar is or the fact Kongo rocked Cain several times ?
edit*
bump . Can we combine the two threads?
I am with you Scientist...BIG TIME.
This will be at least a 20 unit play for me. This is one of those 3 to 5 fights a year that I will hit very hard.
I also agree with you about the wrestling. Cain pretty much never stopped training wrestling. Brock on the other hand spent many years in the pro wrestling circuit not training. Brock wil be bigger, But Cain will be faster and more agile. Like I said earlier, I would not be surprised if Brock spent more time on his back in this contest.
It doesnt bother you Cain could hold down Rothwell who isnt even close to the wrestler Lesnar is or the fact Kongo took down Cain ?
I saw Cain hold down Rothwell better than anyone has ever held him down. And when Rothwell attempted to get up he was blasted in the face numerous times.
Brock had trouble holding Randy and Heath down, who IMO are probably easier to hold down than Ben. It sorta does not matter, as I do not see that as Cains path to victory, but it would not surprise me if Brock ended up on his back in the later rounds.
Kongo took Cain down? Are you talking about after getting hit in the face? I seem to remember 99% of that fight was Cain on top of Kongo.
^^^ yeah I meant Kongo rocking him
I just dont understand all the love for Cain .How do you guys that like Cain see this playing out?
poopoo333
10-07-2010, 07:52 PM
I actually think kongo did end up taking cain down....third round maybe
I actually think kongo did end up taking cain down....third round maybe
I dont remember I'd have to watch it . I remember having a huge bet on Cain in that fight and freaking out at the beginning of every round when Cain would get rocked
poopoo333
10-07-2010, 08:31 PM
Just read the play by play...kongo tried to take cain down twice but ended up getting his back taken instead.
edman5555
10-07-2010, 09:05 PM
He got him down in a scramble once and cain got right back up. Don't read to much into it, cain took him down repeatidly the entire fight.
MMA_scientist
10-07-2010, 09:15 PM
Luke,
I think Cain will force a stand up fight and out box him, maybe stuf some shots and end up on top in a front headlock postition some. Maybe some scrambles, a few takedowns from Brock, but I don't think the size will make a difference. Cain has spent his adult life wrestling heavyweights. There are 2 types of HW wrestlers, and the smaller ones know how to deal with the bigger guys. If Cain gets down, I think he will be standing up before he hits the mat.
edman5555
10-07-2010, 10:00 PM
Cain should win. I think he can finish Brock. He will wear him out.
edman5555
10-07-2010, 10:42 PM
I think I will probably be on Cheick Kongo also.
edman5555
10-07-2010, 10:42 PM
which is not on this ufc
MMA_scientist
10-08-2010, 10:46 AM
This will be at least a 20 unit play for me. This is one of those 3 to 5 fights a year that I will hit very hard.
srsly? 20u? I thought you were knocking UKdonkbet (via SPX) because he bet like 30u on a fight, what gives?
This will be at least a 20 unit play for me. This is one of those 3 to 5 fights a year that I will hit very hard.
srsly? 20u? I thought you were knocking UKdonkbet (via SPX) because he bet like 30u on a fight, what gives?
BIG DIFFERENCE. 30 unit bet for a 5 unit payoff vs. 20 Unit bet for a 30 unit payoff. Once again, it is risk-reward.
MMA_scientist
10-08-2010, 11:39 AM
Yeah, but unless you set your own line on Cain at like -400, that is a lot more risk than 30u on something that is 90% to win.
I mean, I like Cain too, but I have to give Brock at least a 40% chance to win. There is value to Cain, but betting 1/5 of your bankroll seems sort of maniacal to me.
Yeah, but unless you set your own line on Cain at like -400, that is a lot more risk than 30u on something that is 90% to win.
I mean, I like Cain too, but I have to give Brock at least a 40% chance to win. There is value to Cain, but betting 1/5 of your bankroll seems sort of maniacal to me.
Not even close to 1/5 of my bankroll. But I just disagree with your whole philosophy. You seem to assume that big favorites have a 90% chance to win, I do not. I look at it simply as risking alot of money to win a little. that kind of thinking IMO is flawed.
Assuming you have a 100 unit bankroll. For some reason you have the mindset that betting 30% of your bankroll for a 5% return makes more sense than betting 20% of your bankroll for a 30% return. I think you just feel better because the LINE is telling you that you are making a safer bet. I bet over 50 units on GSP in his second fight with Hughes. I had the same conversation with others about that fight that I am having with you.
People could just not believe I was betting that much on the dog. they would tell me to just bet it on a heavy fave. for a sure thing. So most people thought I should drop 10K down on some fave. to win 2K, instead of 10K on a slight dog to win 12K. i just do not look at it that way.
BTW, i think Brock would be lucky, very lucky, to have a 40% chance to win.
MMA_scientist
10-08-2010, 12:43 PM
sbjj... I don't think betting 20% on any fight is a good idea. I don't think there is a difference between doing it on a fave or dog though. The issue is not THE LINE, the issue is YOUR LINE. If your line is -400 and the actual line is -250, I would bet the shit out of that. Same thing with this one. If you think Cain should be more than -150 (60%) and he is currently at +135 (40%), that needs to bet and bet big. Similarly, if a fighter is at -300 (75%) and you think he should be -900 (90%) then you also need to bet the shit out of that...
So it is not that I think a favorite is automatically 90% to win. The issue is when the favorite is more likely to win that the line indicates. There is no difference between betting 30 to win 5 and 20 to win 30 if the value is there, because the risk of loss (in your specific assessment) is the same.
In any event, if you are not using a 100u bankroll, then this is all moot. I was just questioning the wisdom of betting 1/5 of your bankroll on one fight, which you are not doing.
sbjj... I don't think betting 20% on any fight is a good idea. I don't think there is a difference between doing it on a fave or dog though. The issue is not THE LINE, the issue is YOUR LINE. If your line is -400 and the actual line is -250, I would bet the shit out of that. Same thing with this one. If you think Cain should be more than -150 (60%) and he is currently at +135 (40%), that needs to bet and bet big. Similarly, if a fighter is at -300 (75%) and you think he should be -900 (90%) then you also need to bet the shit out of that...
So it is not that I think a favorite is automatically 90% to win. The issue is when the favorite is more likely to win that the line indicates. There is no difference between betting 30 to win 5 and 20 to win 30 if the value is there, because the risk of loss (in your specific assessment) is the same.
In any event, if you are not using a 100u bankroll, then this is all moot. I was just questioning the wisdom of betting 1/5 of your bankroll on one fight, which you are not doing.
Our difference in thining is this Scientists. You spend alot of time in your head trying to figure out value. I take a simpler approach with fundamental rules. I WILL NOT bet a -500 fighter even if I think he has great value because I am still risking to much for what my possible return will be. This is something i think every good capper should do...set simple rules and abide by them. They are not set rules if you EVER have an exception for them.
Do me a favor, come on here the next time you see a -300 guy that you believe should be -900. I think I might have to wait awhile on that one. Yet we have 2 fights coming up which IMO have GREAT value...Cain and BJ.
Bottom line, we have two different mindsets. You will bet ANY fight as long as you see value. While I have more set rules that I must try to abide by. I firmly believe that my rules have kept me from losing alot of money.
Also, when you say bet a fight hard or bet the shit out of it. Do you bet the -300 or higher fighter the same as the +150 fighter? if you see the same value structure in a -300 fighter and a+150 fighter...do you bet the same units. I would guess you bet more on the -300 fighter because he is more expensive. Which can lead to bigger overall losses. When i all actuality, if you are willing to drop 6 units on a -300 guy, you should be willing to do the same with the +150 guy.
Our difference in thining is this Scientists. You spend alot of time in your head trying to figure out value. I take a simpler approach with fundamental rules. I WILL NOT bet a -500 fighter even if I think he has great value because I am still risking to much for what my possible return will be. This is something i think every good capper should do...set simple rules and abide by them. They are not set rules if you EVER have an exception for them.
That's fine. That's YOUR rule. Others abide by the simple rule of betting fights that have a ton of value.
Do me a favor, come on here the next time you see a -300 guy that you believe should be -900.
That would be hard to do. But I think there are a lot of -500 fights that should be -900. GSP/Hardy probably falls into that range. I wouldn't be surprised if Hardy only lands that necessary KO shot once in 20 fights, much less 10.
You will bet ANY fight as long as you see value.
That's not how he bets at all. I've seen him pass up plenty of bets that he felt had value, but was unsure about.
I firmly believe that my rules have kept me from losing alot of money.
Or perhaps they've kept you from winning a lot of money. That is, if you're actually a good capper.
sbjj... I don't think betting 20% on any fight is a good idea. I don't think there is a difference between doing it on a fave or dog though. The issue is not THE LINE, the issue is YOUR LINE. If your line is -400 and the actual line is -250, I would bet the shit out of that. Same thing with this one. If you think Cain should be more than -150 (60%) and he is currently at +135 (40%), that needs to bet and bet big. Similarly, if a fighter is at -300 (75%) and you think he should be -900 (90%) then you also need to bet the shit out of that...
So it is not that I think a favorite is automatically 90% to win. The issue is when the favorite is more likely to win that the line indicates. There is no difference between betting 30 to win 5 and 20 to win 30 if the value is there, because the risk of loss (in your specific assessment) is the same.
In any event, if you are not using a 100u bankroll, then this is all moot. I was just questioning the wisdom of betting 1/5 of your bankroll on one fight, which you are not doing.
I disagree with this. As good as any capper believes he is, he should never begin to think he is God. You are going to be wrong all the time. There is a big difference in it because when you hit a rough patch and lose 3 out of 4 faves, you are destroyed real quick. If you lose 3 out of 4 even lines, you are in a much better position.
it is interesting Scientist, you continually try to figure out the magic of it all. But if you really believe in yourself that much...why have any rules at all. Just bet every fight no matter the odds and as much as you want. I do not believe in myself that much, so i have rules, rules that I believe keep me out of trouble. And with the rules I follow, if I can hit 55%, i will still make a nice profit. the last couple of months, I am hitting like 30% and I have still made a very small profit. Without my rules, I would be down pretty big.
Of course this could all go up in smoke if I lose my Cain and BJ bets. But I am confident enough that if I bet(hard) the 4 to 6 fights under my rules each year I will end up ahead.
SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.
Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.
As for it being MY rule. Yes, it is, and I said nowhere that everyone had to follow it.
As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.
i cant believe anyone is making a big play on this fight
MMA_scientist
10-08-2010, 01:42 PM
I have rules. I just don't follow them. One rule that I do stick to pretty well though is never going over -400. If I see a guy that I feel is 80% to win, I will do a max bet on him regardless of whether his line is -200 or +200. I would be inclined to bet more on the +200 guy because there would be more value.
That said, I rarely see a dog that I feel is an overwhelming favorite. Dos Anjos to Etim comes to mind. Koscheck to Rumble as well. I bet pretty bog on Kos as a dog. I think I went smaller on Dos Anjos.
I see the as many or more fights at -300 that I think should be steeper. Looking at my past bets in that range (it has been a while because I lowered my cap to -250), Kongo/Buentello was a 6u bet for me @ -340. I felt Kongo would win 9/10 fights with Buentello. I put 5u on Reis @ -315, again, I felt Reis would win at least 80% of the time.
The best example was Pitbull Friere/Romero- I really felt that Pitbull was going to sub him and it was a STEAL @ -280. He should have been -1500. I called the exact round and sub for that fight (round 1 heelhook), I put 6u there, but would have been comfortable with more.
SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.
Bitch, you don't know me.
Maybe you just got on my bad side when you called me a liar.
Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.
You said he will bet "ANY" fight as long as there's value. That's not true. You don't have any idea how he bets.
As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.
I didn't make any judgement. I was just pointing out that if you can't pick winners, then the line doesn't matter. You'll go broke, whether slowly or quickly. If you're good at capping though then choosing enough -500 winners to turn a profit in the long run shouldn't be a big problem.
Also, as for your comment about "betting 3 or 4 big favorites and losing" leading to some insurmountable loss, if you have a 100u bankroll and bet 5u on each of those fights then you'll be down 15% or 20% of your total roll. That's hardly career threatening.
i cant believe anyone is making a big play on this fight
I can respect that.
but this is the type of fight I always make a big play on. A slight dog to slight fave. that I think has good value.
i look at Cain having advantages and Brock really having none.
Striking...clear Cain...cain also mixes his strikes up very well with leg kicks.
grappling(BJJ)...pretty unknown, but my head tells me cain.
wrestling...wash...Cain has speed and technique, while Brock has size and strength.
Cardio...I'd give it to cain because he keeps a very fast pace, and Brock seems to like a slow grinding fight.
Chin and Heart...Both seem to have them in spades. But I worry a bit in the way Brock has reacted when he has been hit.
I just see no reason why Cain is the dog here.
SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.
Bitch, you don't know me.
Maybe you just got on my bad side when you called me a liar.
Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.
You said he will bet "ANY" fight as long as there's value. That's not true. You don't have any idea how he bets.
As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.
I didn't make any judgement. I was just pointing out that if you can't pick winners, then the line doesn't matter. You'll go broke, whether slowly or quickly. If you're good at capping though then choosing enough -500 winners to turn a profit in the long run shouldn't be a big problem.
Also, as for your comment about "betting 3 or 4 big favorites and losing" leading to some insurmountable loss, if you have a 100u bankroll and bet 5u on each of those fights then you'll be down 15% or 20% of your total roll. That's hardly career threatening.
Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.
must have missed where I called you a liar. or maybe you just read to much into something.
SPX, I actually have a hard time even responding to you, because you come off as a child with a big ego.
Bitch, you don't know me.
Maybe you just got on my bad side when you called me a liar.
Scientist himself said he bets fights where he sees value.
You said he will bet "ANY" fight as long as there's value. That's not true. You don't have any idea how he bets.
As for me being a good or bad capper. i could care less what you think. You might actually be a better capper than I am, but I am 99% sure that I have and always will make more of a profit than you because of my simple rules.
I didn't make any judgement. I was just pointing out that if you can't pick winners, then the line doesn't matter. You'll go broke, whether slowly or quickly. If you're good at capping though then choosing enough -500 winners to turn a profit in the long run shouldn't be a big problem.
Also, as for your comment about "betting 3 or 4 big favorites and losing" leading to some insurmountable loss, if you have a 100u bankroll and bet 5u on each of those fights then you'll be down 15% or 20% of your total roll. That's hardly career threatening.
LOL, looks like I had the child part right.
MMA_scientist
10-08-2010, 01:52 PM
it is interesting Scientist, you continually try to figure out the magic of it all. But if you really believe in yourself that much...why have any rules at all. Just bet every fight no matter the odds and as much as you want. I do not believe in myself that much, so i have rules, rules that I believe keep me out of trouble. And with the rules I follow, if I can hit 55%, i will still make a nice profit. the last couple of months, I am hitting like 30% and I have still made a very small profit. Without my rules, I would be down pretty big.
Of course this could all go up in smoke if I lose my Cain and BJ bets. But I am confident enough that if I bet(hard) the 4 to 6 fights under my rules each year I will end up ahead.
I have rules. I am just saying "theoretically" and mathmatically it is no different. As a practical matter, the volatility will be too much and you will lose all your money. Just like, a martingale is "theoretically" perfect. It would always win if you had an unlimited bankroll and no house limits. But as it were, favorites lose, I am wrong on my assessments all the time, so I set caps on my bets (-400 and 5u, 6u in special cases). I do break the rules though, which is my main problem.
I am not trying to figure out the magic... there is no magic. I am trying to figure out how to optimally manage my bankroll for limited volatilty and risk of ruin while still allowing enough risk to see decent returns. There are plenty of mechanical systems out there (like the Kelly systems)...
I think you are confusing what I do, with what I am saying is possible.
Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.
No, I get it perfectly.
Let me ask you this: I'm 5'6", 140 lbs., with minimal martial arts training. If I personally fought Mike Tyson in his prime and you were offered a line of -1000, would you bet it, or would you worry that I'd throw a haymaker that would KO him?
I assume you would bet it.
So there you go.
LOL, looks like I had the child part right.
This is not the way to make friends around here.
MMA_scientist
10-08-2010, 02:04 PM
Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.
must have missed where I called you a liar. or maybe you just read to much into something.
As long as you hit more than you are supposed to, you win. I don't know what else to tell you about that. I will never believe that betting where there is value is wrong. You would be better off telling me that big favorites never have value because of the inherent variables in MMA (which I sort of buy to a certain extent).
yeah, if you make huge bets, you are making a mistake in managing your funds...
as for your feud, cmon guys. We are all on the same side here. I don't want to see southbay-I mean sbjj- get banned because X is pissed. This kind of discourse is going to make us all better and at least consider if the bets we are making are good or not... (even if sbjj is wrong on this particular issue)
I actually think we all kind of agree here. Making bets too big for your bankroll is bad and will lead to your demise. We just disagree in that getting a lot of little wins and a big loss has that much effect as opposed winning 1.5 and then losing 1... it all washes out after a while.
Svino
10-08-2010, 02:05 PM
Not even close to 1/5 of my bankroll.
How many units is your bankroll? Sorry if you've told us before, but I just don't have any context for a bet given in "units" without knowing that.
I think where we are disagreeing is on the question of what types of value it is possible to predict. Personally, I think it is easier to predict that GSP has at least a 90% chance of beating Hardy than it is to say that Cain has more than a 60% chance of beating Lesnar.
However, I agree that the slight dog -> to favorite bets can be some of the most profitable, and often justify pretty big bets. I'll do that as well if I'm feeling particularly sure of myself. I had 10 U on Shogun to beat Machida, and I definitely wish I had bet earlier and harder on Carwin to beat Mir.
Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.
No, I get it perfectly.
Let me ask you this: I'm 5'6", 140 lbs., with minimal martial arts training. If I personally fought Mike Tyson in his prime and you were offered a line of -1000, would you bet it, or would you worry that I'd throw a haymaker that would KO him?
I assume you would bet it.
So there you go.
Yeah but Tyson wasn't fighting Matt Serra size midgets, so there you go ::lolzorz::
Yeah but Tyson wasn't fighting Matt Serra size midgets, so there you go ::lolzorz::
You see southbay, we already have enough assholes around here. We don't need anymore.
MMA_scientist
10-08-2010, 02:15 PM
Yeah but Tyson wasn't fighting Matt Serra size midgets, so there you go ::lolzorz::
You see southbay, we already have enough assholes around here. We don't need anymore.
Just wanted to point out that Ludo made the comment, not sbjj
Just wanted to point out that Ludo made the comment, not sbjj
Oh, that was my point.
Ludo, zY. . . IWS is at full douche capacity.
(Not that I don't love those guys or anything.)
Don't lump Me in with zY, that motherfucker can't even tie his own shoes
Mr. IWS
10-08-2010, 02:44 PM
Good conversation..............
Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.
No, I get it perfectly.
Let me ask you this: I'm 5'6", 140 lbs., with minimal martial arts training. If I personally fought Mike Tyson in his prime and you were offered a line of -1000, would you bet it, or would you worry that I'd throw a haymaker that would KO him?
I assume you would bet it.
So there you go.
I am hoping this post was meant to be just funny. I really hope you do not think you made a valid point here.
Jesus dude, you just do not get it. Yea, and if you hit every single one, you will be up a whopping 3 or 4 units. Man, you just do not seem to see it.
must have missed where I called you a liar. or maybe you just read to much into something.
As long as you hit more than you are supposed to, you win. I don't know what else to tell you about that. I will never believe that betting where there is value is wrong. You would be better off telling me that big favorites never have value because of the inherent variables in MMA (which I sort of buy to a certain extent).
yeah, if you make huge bets, you are making a mistake in managing your funds...
as for your feud, cmon guys. We are all on the same side here. I don't want to see southbay-I mean sbjj- get banned because X is pissed. This kind of discourse is going to make us all better and at least consider if the bets we are making are good or not... (even if sbjj is wrong on this particular issue)
I actually think we all kind of agree here. Making bets too big for your bankroll is bad and will lead to your demise. We just disagree in that getting a lot of little wins and a big loss has that much effect as opposed winning 1.5 and then losing 1... it all washes out after a while.
This shit is hilarious. Feel free(whoever has the power) to ban me at any time. because if all conversations are going to degrade down to this, it would be welcomed. It is just funny for you to say I am wrong on this issue when it has worked for a decade for me Scientist. Maybe I have my rules because this is my living. Seriously, it puts food on my families table, and puts clothes on my childs back. I do not have the luxury of having long extended bad runs.
And seriously, if a dude like SPX has the power to ban me from this site...Please, ban me.
I am hoping this post was meant to be just funny. I really hope you do not think you made a valid point here.
While that example was extreme in order to make a point, I think that there are fights out there that go down that really are examples virtually of "free money."
Take BJ vs Stevenson, for example. When I think about that fight, I literally can't come up with a way for Stevenson to win, barring some really super crazy fluke. I mean, it's not like Stevenson KOs people, and he's for damn sure not beating BJ in any other department. I literally believe that if BJ fought Stevenson 20 times he would beat him 20 times. Maybe in 50 fights, he might win 2. Maybe.
So why not take the free money? That's my point. If that doesn't agree with your playing style because it's "just not worth it," then fine. No one's saying you have to play like anyone else. Maybe what you do works for you. Maybe your method is effective. But that doesn't mean that it's the only way to play, or that other approaches aren't equally valid.
Not even close to 1/5 of my bankroll.
How many units is your bankroll? Sorry if you've told us before, but I just don't have any context for a bet given in "units" without knowing that.
I think where we are disagreeing is on the question of what types of value it is possible to predict. Personally, I think it is easier to predict that GSP has at least a 90% chance of beating Hardy than it is to say that Cain has more than a 60% chance of beating Lesnar.
However, I agree that the slight dog -> to favorite bets can be some of the most profitable, and often justify pretty big bets. I'll do that as well if I'm feeling particularly sure of myself. I had 10 U on Shogun to beat Machida, and I definitely wish I had bet earlier and harder on Carwin to beat Mir.
I have an account with money in it designated for MMA and Boxing, and the occasional poker tourney. It fluctuates(more lately) because I am constantly withdrawing money from it. But on average with my dollars per unit I normally have between a 350 to 450 unit bankroll.
Svino, your Hardy-GSP vs. Brock-Cain comparison just does not apply to me. I pretty much have to make a certain amount of money each year. So placing 2500.00 dollars on GSP to win 500.00 just does not make sense. If I just made those types of bets all year, and had a bad run, more and more of my bankroll would have to go towards bills and such.
I am by no means faulting anyone who makes a GSP type bet every now and then. My problem is with people who make this the largest part of their game. Just picking Heavy Faves. because they are bound to win.
And seriously, if a dude like SPX has the power to ban me from this site...Please, ban me.
We do our best around here to not run this place like iron-fisted dictators. Arguments happen, and not everyone likes everyone all the time. So no one's calling out "off with his head."
But for the record, you're pissing me off.
I am hoping this post was meant to be just funny. I really hope you do not think you made a valid point here.
While that example was extreme in order to make a point, I think that there are fights out there that go down that really are examples virtually of "free money."
Take BJ vs Stevenson, for example. When I think about that fight, I literally can't come up with a way for Stevenson to win, barring some really super crazy fluke. I mean, it's not like Stevenson KOs people, and he's for damn sure not beating BJ in any other department. I literally believe that if BJ fought Stevenson 20 times he would beat him 20 times. Maybe in 50 fights, he might win 2. Maybe.
So why not take the free money? That's my point. If that doesn't agree with your playing style because it's "just not worth it," then fine. No one's saying you have to play like anyone else. Maybe what you do works for you. Maybe your method is effective. But that doesn't mean that it's the only way to play, or that other approaches aren't equally valid.
Dude, that is another bad example, because I bet BJ in that fight in Vegas @ -240. That line does not pertain to the discussion. BUT!, I would not have bet BJ @ -400 or -500 against Joe. It is just my rule. it kept me from even considering BJ against Edgar either time. Even though I though BJ was going to kill Edgar the first time, and beat him the second also.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 4.2.5 Copyright © 2024 vBulletin Solutions Inc. All rights reserved.