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07-09-2010, 11:41 AM

Larry Ness | MLB Money Line Fri, 07/09/10 - 7:05 PM

double-dime bet 970 DET (-130) Sportbet vs 969 MIN
Analysis: My 10* Division Game of the Month is on the Det Tigers at 7:05 ET.
The Tigers lost THREE of their final four regular season games last year, ending in a tie for the AL Central title with the Twins. They then blew a 3-0 lead in a one-game playoff, losing 6-5 in Minnesota (12 innings). The Tigers have lost SIX of their nine meetings with the Twins this season but based on "current form," sure have to like their chances to win this three-game series this weekend. The Tigers are wrapping up a nine-game homestand this weekend, and are already 5-1 which ups their home mark in 2010 to an AL-best 30-12 (.714). Only the Braves (30-10) own a better home record but the Tigers lead MLB in money won at home, going plus-$1,589 vs the moneyline. The Twins, who led the division by 4 1/2 games less than a month ago, have lost 11 of 16 and now find themselves behind both the Tigers (two games) and White Sox (half-game) in the division they've won FIVE times since 2002. More bad news comes in the fact that Justin Morneau (.345, 18 HRs, 56 RBI) may not play. He sat out Thursday's 8-1 loss to Toronto because of a mild concussion after he was accidentally kneed in the head the previous night. "He wasn’t feeling very good. We’ll see how he does (Friday),” manager Ron Gardenhire told the Twins’ official website. “We’ll give him a day and then we’ll (aim) for (Friday). I can’t go any deeper than that.” The starting pitchers will be Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander. Verlander got off to an awful start in 2010 (6.95 ERA in his first four starts, although the team won THREE of those four games) but he's posted a 3.07 ERA over his last 13 games, including a 1.81 ERA in his seven home starts in that span. Verlander 'EXPLODED' on the scene as a rookie in 2006 and had another excellent season in 2007 (team was a combined 41-21 in his starts those two years). He then suffered through a very poor 2008 season, going 11-17 (4.84 ERA), as the Tigers went 13-20 in his starts. His moneyline of minus-$1,351 was the WORST of any MLB starter tha~t year. However, he was back in fine form in 2009, going 19-9 (3.45 ERA), as the Tigers went 23-12 in his starts. Same this year, as he's 10-5 (3.85 ERA) in 17 starts (team is 12-5). Liriano knows a little about having a big rookie season, as he also was a star in 2006. He went 12-3 with a 2.16 ERA but arm troubles forced him to miss all of 2007. He then made just 14 appearances in 2008 (6-4, 3.91 ERA) before struggling for most of 2009 (5-13, 5.80 ERA / team was 9-15). He began this year healthy, opening 4-0 with a 1.50 ERA in five starts (team was 5-0). However, he's just 2-6 over his last 11 starts (team is 3-8), going 0-3 with a 4.68 ERA in his last four (team is 0-4). Both the Twins and Liriano are slumping, while the Tigers look to finish a strong first half of the season in style. All Detroit, tonight!

Good luck...Larry