7-15-10 requested tout's here, all other's go in regular's

[Mr. IWS]

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[spook]

Ben Burns | MLB Money Line Thu, 07/15/10 - 10:05 PM

triple-dime bet 914 ANA (-150) Sportbet vs 913 SEA
Analysis: I'm playing on the LA ANGELS. Having limped into the All Star Break, the Angels badly need to start the second half with a victory. I think this matchup presents the perfect opportunity.

Manager Mike Scioscia has elected to go with Joel Pineiro. Given Pineiro's recent performance, that's probably a wise move. Indeed, Pineiro is 6-1 his last nine starts, going a least six innings in all nine of those starts.

Over his last six starts, Pineiro has allowed nine runs in 44 1/3 innings. That translates to a 1.83 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in all six of those starts, including one or less in four of them.

For the season, Pineiro is 6-2 with a stellar 2.22 ERA in 10 home starts, averaging 6.9 innings in those starts. Opposing batters are hitting .309 against him on the road but just .230 at home.

Given his opponent's recent form, Pineiro should receive some run support here. Fister is off a quality start. However, that was at home, vs. KC.

Prior to that, he'd recorded an ugly 7.71 ERA in his previous three starts. For the season, Fister is 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.558 WHIP in five road starts. He's averaged just 5.1 innings in those starts, most recently a 7-1 loss at Detroit.

The Mariners are a money-burning 60-82 (-26.5) against divisional opponents the past few seasons, including a dismal 7-21 mark this season. The Angels are a respectable 16-11 (+4) against divisional opponents this season, going 82-59 the past few. Not surprisingly, the Angels are 7-2 the last nine meetings in the series (5-0 L5) and 31-16 (+12.7) the last 47. Badly needing a victory, I expect them to continue that dominance here. *10

[spook]

Ben Burns | MLB Total Thu, 07/15/10 - 10:05 PM

double-dime bet 913 SEA / 914 ANA Under 8.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: I'm playing on LA and Seattle to finish UNDER the total. The UNDER is 9-5-1 the last 15 times that the Angels hosted the Mariners. I feel that this evening's O/U line is generously high.

Pineiro gets the call for the Angels and he's been red hot. He's 6-1 his last nine starts, going a least six innings in all nine of those starts. Over his last six starts, Pineiro has allowed nine runs in 44 1/3 innings. That translates to a 1.83 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in all six of those starts, including one or less in four of them.

For the season, Pineiro is 6-2 with a stellar 2.22 ERA in 10 home starts, averaging 6.9 innings in those starts. Opposing batters are hitting .309 against him on the road but just .230 at home. Note that the UNDEr is 12-8 in Pineiro's last 12 home starts, dating back to last season in St. Louis.

Admittedly, Fister hasn't been as hot as Pineiro and he also hasn't been as good on the road, as he has been at home. That said, he's coming off a very strong start, one which saw him allow just one run through six complete innings.

Also, Fister has pitched very well vs. the Angels. In two starts against the Angels he has a 2.51 ERA and 1.117 WHIP. Fister went seven or more innings in both of those starts. Those games both stayed below the total, finishing with scores of 4-3 and 2-1.

The Angels have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last ni~ne times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 121-80-4 the last 205 times that they were in that role.

The Mariners have seen the UNDER go 17-8-4 when playing a game with an O/U line of either eight or 8.5, including a lucrative 10-3-2 on the road. Given Pineiro's recent form, I expect those numbers to improve here. *8