7-18-10 requested tout's here, all other's go in regular's

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Larry Ness | MLB Total Sun, 07/18/10 - 4:05 PM

triple-dime bet 963 ARI / 964 SDP Over 7 BetUS
Analysis: My 10* NL Total of the Year is on Az/SD OVER at 4:05 ET.
After winning just 63 and 75 games the previous two seasons, the Padres find themselves on the first Sunday after the All Star break with a 53-37 record. It's an NL-best and good enough for them to lead the Giants by 3 1/2 games with the Dodgers and Rockies four games back. As for the D'backs, they've lost NINE of their last 11 and at 34-57 on the season, sit 19 1/2 games back of the Padres. San Diego has risen to the top of the NL due to its pitching staff, which owns a ML-best team ERA of 3.24 (bullpen ERA is 2.85). However, San Diego starters have a 6.04 ERA over the last eight games. The good news for Padre fans is that the offense (mediocre on the season), has plated an average of 7.13 RPG during that same stretch. That includes scoring 20 runs (on 22 hits) in 12-1 and 8-5 wins over the D'backs in the first two games of this series. SD faces Edwin Jackson on Sunday, he of the June 25 no-hitter (allowed EIGHT walks in that 'gem!'). Let me note that Jackson's ERA is 4.92 on the year and in his two starts since his no-hitter, has allowed 13 hits and nine ERs in 10 innings for an 8.10 ERA. The Padres have relied on basically five starters all season. Latos (2.45 ERA), LeBlanc (3.30), Garland (3.45) and Richard (3.52) have all been solid. The "fly in the ointment" has been Kevin Correia. His ERA sits at 5.26, having allowed four ERs or more in NINE of his 17 starts this season. That includes allowing four ERs or more in FIVE of his last eight starts, in which he's posted a 6.80 ERA. SEVEN of those eight games have gone 'over with the average game score of those seven overs totaling 13.3 RPG! Friday's total closed 6 1/2 and the final was 12-1, while Saturday's total closed seven (final score of 8-5). Sunday's total opened at 7 1/2 and with SD swinging the bats so well plus with this pitching matchup (Jackson vs Correia), the ONLY play is OVER!

Good luck...Larry

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Ben Burns | MLB Total Sun, 07/18/10 - 4:05 PM

double-dime bet 963 ARI / 964 SDP Under 7.5 Sportbet
Analysis: I'm playing on Arizona and San Diego to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both produced double-digits in combined runs. I expect this afternoon's finale to be much lower-scoring though.

Arizona, which generally doesn't hit well on the road, sends Edwin Jackson to the mound. The last time he pitched away from Arizona, he threw a no-hitter. Looking back further and we find Jackson at 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA in his last five road starts. Note that Jackson started here at Petco on 4/16 and that he allowed just three hits through six shutout innings.

Correia goes for the Padres. He's had some trouble on the road and gave up five runs in five innings, at Colorado, in his last start. However, in his last start here at San Diego, he allowed just five hits through seven shutout innings. That game finished with a score of 1-0.

Correia has made one home start against the Dbax this season. In that 4/17 outing, he tossed 5 2/3 shutout innings, allowing only three hits. He recorded 8 K's with just 2 walks, earning the Padres a 5-0 victory. Including that result, the UNDER is now a perfect 5-0 in his last five starts vs. Arizona. He's made five career home starts vs. Arizona and allowed two earned runs or less in four of them.

While they've been admittedly been hitting well lately, the Padres have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 32-20 the last 52 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -125 to -150 range. I expect things to return to 'normal' and for those numbers to improve this afternoon. *8




Ben Burns | MLB Money Line Sun, 07/18/10 - 2:15 PM

triple-dime bet 959 LOS (-137) Sportbet vs 960 STL
Analysis: I'm playing on the LA DODGERS. The Dodgers haven't fared too well in the first three games of this series. Not only are they 0-3 but they've also been outscored by a combined score of 17-5. In fact, they've struggled here, during the regular season, for several years. They won here in the playoffs last year though, so they have the confidence to know that they can do so. More importantly, I expect them to enjoy an edge on the mound.

It's generally unwise to over-react to one start, good or bad. However, when a pitcher strings together a few really good (or really bad) ones in a row, it becomes easier to know what to expect. In this case, Padilla is currently in a major zone while Suppan is currently in a major funk.

Padilla checks in having gone 3-0 with an outstanding 1.25 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his last three starts, averaging greater than seven innings in those outings. In 21 2/3 innings, he's recorded 20 K's with just two walks, allowing only 11 hits and three runs. The Dodgers won those games by a combined score of 22-5. Last time out, he held the Cubs to two hits through eight shutout innings. In his last road starts, he limited the Giants to three hits and one run through seven innings. For the season, he has a respectable 4.20 ERA and a very good 1.042 WHIP. In 55 2/3 innings, he has 54 K's and just 10 walks.

On the other hand, Suppan is now 0-5 with an awful 6.55 ERA and 1.945 WHIP. He's averaging less than five innings per start. In 55 innings, he has 30 K's with just 23 walks. He's not getting any better here, as he's 0-3 with a 5.87 ERA and 2.021 WHIP, his last three starts.

While Suppan has been mediocre vs. LA, Padilla has enjoyed success when starting against St. Louis. He's 3-0 his last three starts vs. the Cardinals and is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in four starts against them for his career. He dominated them here last October, allowing four hits through seven shutout innings. The Dodgers won that one by a 5-1 score.

I expect Padilla to deliver another quality effort as the Dodgers bounce back, avoiding the sweep and earning Joe Torre a victory on his 70th birthday. *10