8-23-10

[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

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[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness | MLB Total Mon, 08/23/10 - 10:05 PM

triple-dime bet 969 TAM / 970 ANA Over 9 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: My 10* Total of the Month is on TB/LAA Over at 10:05 ET.
When the Rays made their World Series run in 2008, the starting staff was anchored by Scott Kazmir and James Shields. The former teammates meet as a opposing hurlers for the first time tonight in Anaheim, as the Rays and Angels open a three-game series. Kazmir struggled badly in 2009 and was traded late in the summer to the Angels, where he has been a major flop in 2010 (8-10 with a 6.40 ERA in 20 starts / team is 8-12). Shields was expected to be Tampa's ace in 2010 but he's 11-11 with a 4.82 ERA in 24 starts / team is 12-12) but he owns the highest ERA of any of the pitchers in Tampa's main five-man rotation. Will either of these guys "rise to the occasion" in this meeting? Could both of them do so? Both scenarios are possible but I'm going with both pitcher's "current form" and that makes it a play on the over. Shields owns a 7.90 ERA over his last five road starts (27.1 IP / 24 ERs), as those games have averaged 14.0 runs per game (FOUR of five have gone over). As for Kazmir, he's been equally bad on the road (6.56 ERA) and at home (6.32 ERA) and faces a Tampa team which has averaged 5.48 RPG in all its road games this year, including going 11-5 in road night games vs lefties (averaging 5.8 RPG). The Angels are not hitting like they have the last few seasons (especially against righties) but the team has still averaged 4.6 RPG vs right-handers this season and as I've pointed out, Shields has had a "off season" (actually, his second in a row) and let's not forget his 7.90 ERA over his last five outings . Go OVER!

Good luck...Larry