YTD results

[MMA_scientist]

Not included is my shame dump on lil Nog (which actually netted me 7u)... but it was so reckless and out of character, that I cannot claim it in good conscience. I know that there are few other plays that I am forgetting too.

Total WINS = +98.98
Parlay project +5.29
Total Losses = -70.4

Overall net gain = 33.87u

Dogs: 6-9 +8.66
Faves: 55-13 +27.06

Bellator: -2.44 ( I have been killing these Bellators but I took 2 bad losses, Hess and Curran)
SF: +11.88

I use a 50u bankroll, so without compounding, a 71% return. But it is actually a lot more than that, because with win, the unit size increases... but I have not kept track concisely.

wins
1.25u Warren @ -125 = +1u
Hendricks/Boetch = +2.5u
1u Werdum @ +455 = +4.55
1u Askren @ +140 = +1.4
5u Roberts @ -180= +2.7
3u Del Rosario @ -245 = +1.22
3u Ellenberger @ -170 = +1.76
1u Stann @ 1.37 = +1.37
1u Hughes @ 1.4 = +1.40
1.15u Guida @ -115 = +1.0
3u Jorgenson @ -215 = +1.39
2u Paixao @ -180 = +1.1
5u Noons @ -255 = +1.96
2.8u Galvao @ -280 = + 1 (16.3u)
6u on Kongo to beat Buentello @ -340 +1.76
3u on Pierce @ -355 +.84
3u on Pelligrino to beat Miranda@ -167 +1.79
5u on Palhares to beat Drzwal @ -240 +2.08
5u on Galvao to beat Stewart @-315 +1.58
5u on Florian to beat Gomi @-290 +1.72
6u on Nelson to beat Struve @ -290 +2.06
.5 on Volkmann @ +181 +.90
2u on Dos Anjos to beat Etim @ +140 +2.8u
5u on Hughes to beat Renzo @ -455 +1.09
3u on Karahkayan to beat Quach @ -195 +1.53
5u on Reis to beat Lierley @ -315 +1.58
3u on Askren to beat Thomas @ -400 +.75
4u on Melendez to beat Aoki @ -170 + 2.35
6u on Freire to beat Romero @ -280 +2.14
5u on Hendricks to beat @ -350 +1.42
1u on Salter to beat MacDonald @+160 +1.6
3u on Koscheck to beat Daley @ -271 + 1.1
3u on Leites to beat Taylor @ -290 +1.03
5u on Sylvia to beat Pudz @ -310 +1.61
5u on Wiuff to beat @ -355 +1.4
6u on Hornbuckle to beat Carl @ -435 +1.37
6u on Soto to beat Saraiva @ -415 +1.44
5u on Efrain to beat Lauzon @ -360 +1.38 (+37.31u)
Danzig def Buchholz 5u @ -280 = + 1.78
A. Miller def Lawlor 5u @ -250 = + 2.00
Dos Anjos def Bradley 5u @ -305 = + 1.63
C. Miller def Lauzon 5u @ -155 = + 3.22
Evans def Silva 5u @ -185 = + 2.7
J. Miller def Ludwig 5u @ -425 = + 1.17
Hieron def Riggs 3u @ -294 = + 1.02
Nelson def Schaub 5u @ -197 = + 2.53
Howard def Hallman 5u @ -250 = + 2.00
Palhares def Linhares 7u @ -340 = + 2.05
Fitch def Pierce 5u @ -345 = + 1.44
Hendricks def Funch 5u @ -365 = + 1.44
Florian def Guida 5u @ -194 = + 2.57
Jacare def Linland 5u @ -274 = + 1.82
Bisping def Kang 3u @ ev = + 3.00
Werdum def Silva 5u @ -150 = + 3.33
Koscheck def Johnson 5u @ +105 = + 5.00 (38.62)



Losses

-.45u Salter
-1.4 Osipczac
-5u Thiago
-.5 Branch
-.71 Carwin
-.5 O Brien
-1 Munoz
-2u on Vera to beat jones @ +210
-.5u on Marshall to beat Vlad @ +160
-4u on Veach @ -170
-5u on Curran @ -400
-5u on Hendo @ -413
-2u On Vainer @ +110
-4u on Hague to beat Beltran @ -190
-5u on Diego to beat Hathaway @ -200
-1.5 on Reis to bet Freire @ -150
-.25 on Thomas to beat Askren @ +400
-.5u on Maia to beat Silva @ +500
-5u on Hess to beat Schlemenko @ -400
-5u on Hansen to beat takaya @ -270
Beltran def Gracie -5u
Sonnen def Marquart -6u
Minowa def Sokoudjou -5u
Grove def Rosholt -5u


Parlay
5u on Cullem @ -800 = +.62u
5.62u on Phil Davis @ -7.15 = +.78u
6.4u on Cormier @ -1500 = +.42u
6.82u on Hornbuckle @ -355 = +1.92u
8.78u on Couture @ -580 = +1.51

[edman5555]

That hornbuckle blackburn fight was close.

[Mr. IWS]

Your a beast my brotha!

I fuckin blow this year. I bow at your feet. ::praise::

Seriously, nice job man. Your a big help around here.

::handshake::

[MMA_scientist]

That hornbuckle blackburn fight was close.

Yeah, it was a bad play. I would like to look at all the "wrong" plays I made and see how I would have done if they wen't teh other way (I am pretty sure I would have lost overall)/

[MMA_scientist]

Just noticed this is not YTD either, it actually has 12/2009 in there too.

[Mr. IWS]

How many years you been betting MMA?

[MMA_scientist]

How many years you been betting MMA?

about 3 years

[Mr. IWS]

Is this the norm for you in terms of winning? Im ready to hop on board. LOL

[SPX]

Good job, Scientist. Interesting stuff there.

You're clearly kicking my ass on Strikeforce. I'm like -7u on that shit.

[MMA_scientist]

Is this the norm for you in terms of winning? Im ready to hop on board. LOL

This is about the norm. My first year, I was really aggressive and wild, kind of like Poopoo. As luck would have it, it worked out and I had like a 200% return. But since then, it is about 2u-3u per month on average. I had a dry spell for like 3 months this year from February to June... which is when I shamefully did the Nog dump. I also had to cash out half my bankroll and use the money in that same time period for life stuff... so I got frustrated with the delay of my dream of doing nothing but watching fights and training, and that contributed to the shame dump.

[MMA_scientist]

Good job, Scientist. Interesting stuff there.

You're clearly kicking my ass on Strikeforce. I'm like -7u on that shit.

Yeah I didn't realize I was doing so well on SF... I think it is because SF goes after these bjj guys... They have Galvao, Roger Gracie, Jacare, Werdum... I rode 2 big bets on Galvao (both of which were really close and I was on the wrong side on both). But really the number is inflated because of the Werdum win.

I thought Bellator was my money train, but those 2 5u losses before I instituted my lower line cap killed me.

and you better say something, I did this for you (though all i had to do was cut and paste it).

[MMA_scientist]

Just looking at the wins, I can see at least 6 fights where I was clearly on the wrong side and just lucked out:

Nog/Brilz
Galvao/Stewart (6.58u swing)
Galvao/Patino (3.8u swing)
Paixao/Caraway (3.8u swing)
Howard/Hallman (7u swing)
A. Simpson/Lawlor (7u swing)

add these up (excluding Nog) and I would be down for the year. Of course, I got "unlucky" on a lot of my losses too... both with guys that lost even though they had value, and guys that fluked out. But it is easy to see how "negative variance" can have a big impact over a short period of time.

[Svino]

Woo! Good job!



That hornbuckle blackburn fight was close.

Yeah, it was a bad play. I would like to look at all the "wrong" plays I made and see how I would have done if they wen't teh other way (I am pretty sure I would have lost overall)/

True, but then to be fair to yourself, you've also gotta think about the times you made the "right" call and got burned.

[Edit: oops, looks like you've got that covered. I had the same two bets on Galvao. I think I'm done betting on him for a while.]

[triathlete]

Hello everyone. Sorry for the absence... not that I contributed a whole lot in the first place.

I was even for the year up to June. Haven't bet jack shit lately due to travel and school.

Good to be back, though. Thanks to Sean Patrick Xavier for reminding me I still watch and bet on MMA :)

[Luke]

Hello everyone. Sorry for the absence... not that I contributed a whole lot in the first place.

I was even for the year up to June. Haven't bet jack shit lately due to travel and school.

Good to be back, though. Thanks to Sean Patrick Xavier for reminding me I still watch and bet on MMA :)


Welcome back man .We've all wondered where you have been

[zY|]

Didn't you go to Vietnam?

[SPX]

Thanks to Sean Patrick Xavier for reminding me I still watch and bet on MMA :)

LOL

Yeah, 'bout damn time you showed your face around here, mofo!

Like I said earlier, September is fucking FULL of MMA. Hopefully you'll act like sensible heterosexual male and will show up for some of it.

[SPX]

::hijack:: This is now the "Welcome Back Triathlete" thread. Scientist, you will need to go make another.

[MMA_scientist]

I don't need another thread, homes. Like I said, I made it for you... I am done with it, you can even change the title.

[SPX]

I don't need another thread, homes. Like I said, I made it for you... I am done with it, you can even change the title.

Well I was just joking anyway . . . homes.

[zY|]

Like I said earlier, September is fucking FULL of MMA. Hopefully you'll act like sensible heterosexual male and will show up for some of it.

Is it?

Compared to August it looks like a wasteland.

[zY|]

Nvm, I see it picks up in a big way towards the end.

[sbjj]

Thats pretty impressive MMA. And I do not think it had any thing to do with luck, because as you saidf, there were probably some fights that did not go your way. I think the Simpson-Lawlor fight was not lucky...I actually thought it was a draw, if not a Simpson win.

Would anyone be opposed to me making a differnt thread for each event consisting of just everyones bets...no debate over the fights themselves, just straight bets on the event in question.

[Svino]

I'm having a pretty good year. I kind of switched things up starting in May, doing more research placing more bets. It's been working well so far:

Jan-April: 29 MMA bets \ wagering 72.9 U \ +16.4 U for the period.
May-Aug: 54 MMA bets \ wagering 140 U \ +38.6 U for the period.

Counting units, I'm +55 U (1U = 1%), but in terms of actual $$, the bankroll is up 69%, because of compounding and all that.

Looking back at my bet history, I remember I had the habit of placing a small bet on each of Lashley's opponents. After the Sims fight, I got tired of losing money that way, and stopped. ::headbanger::

Where I lucked out: the Galvao fights. I had a pretty big bet on Lawler over Manhoef. Also not sure Bader was the right call over Jardine.

If I have a shift in strategy planned for the last 4 months, it will be to bet more on each fight, and also to keep my focus on wrestlers and try to avoid sprawl-and-brawl-win predictions, since I don't have a good record there. Of course, I'm mulling a bet on Cro Cop over Mir as I say that. And if Bader wasn't the right call over Jardine, wouldn't Little Nog have some value? Hmm...

[MMA_scientist]

Thats pretty impressive MMA. And I do not think it had any thing to do with luck, because as you saidf, there were probably some fights that did not go your way. I think the Simpson-Lawlor fight was not lucky...I actually thought it was a draw, if not a Simpson win.

Would anyone be opposed to me making a differnt thread for each event consisting of just everyones bets...no debate over the fights themselves, just straight bets on the event in question.

Thanks. With Simpson, I just meant he was nearly finished in Round 1 and I was on the wrong side for sure.

I would love just a bet breakdown... I actually tried to do it for UFC 118... I had a spreadsheet in there somewhere. Then I started to do if for UFN 22... I created a google docs spreadsheet with all the regulars' names... but I gave up because you have to log in to see it. I am too computer illiterate to make a functional spreadsheet. So if you would do that, that would be awesome. I like having a quick reference of plays from people's that I know follow MMA...

[MMA_scientist]

I'm having a pretty good year. I kind of switched things up starting in May, doing more research placing more bets. It's been working well so far:

Jan-April: 29 MMA bets \ wagering 72.9 U \ +16.4 U for the period.
May-Aug: 54 MMA bets \ wagering 140 U \ +38.6 U for the period.

Counting units, I'm +55 U (1U = 1%), but in terms of actual $$, the bankroll is up 69%, because of compounding and all that.

Looking back at my bet history, I remember I had the habit of placing a small bet on each of Lashley's opponents. After the Sims fight, I got tired of losing money that way, and stopped. ::headbanger::

Where I lucked out: the Galvao fights. I had a pretty big bet on Lawler over Manhoef. Also not sure Bader was the right call over Jardine.

If I have a shift in strategy planned for the last 4 months, it will be to bet more on each fight, and also to keep my focus on wrestlers and try to avoid sprawl-and-brawl-win predictions, since I don't have a good record there. Of course, I'm mulling a bet on Cro Cop over Mir as I say that. And if Bader wasn't the right call over Jardine, wouldn't Little Nog have some value? Hmm...

That's a really impressive return. I wish you would make your plays known in an easy to access format.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ if you are killing it like that, you need to share the wealth is what I am saying.

[Mr. IWS]

Would anyone be opposed to me making a differnt thread for each event consisting of just everyones bets...no debate over the fights themselves, just straight bets on the event in question.

Im definatly down with that.

I would even tally everything up after every event and keep a running tally.

[Svino]

Since I started posting here, I do try to post plays in the event thread, (usually pretty close to fight time since I procrastinate on research.) It can be hard to find people's plays in the long threads, so I'd totally be down with sbjj's idea as well though.

If you're wondering about the wager/profit ratio, I can tell you it's high-looking because I tend to bet more dogs (and because I've been lucky). Someone who makes a X% profit betting dogs will have a much higher ratio than someone who makes X% betting favorites. Doesn't make it a better method; since what counts is the $$$ you haul in.

[MMA_scientist]

I was just giving you shit, but I seriously would like to see your plays before hand. I don't know if you have been out to teh blog lately, but Charles has a google docs spreadsheet with all his plays, including his upcoming, he is actually beating my ass too. I linked it as a resource. It is a tidy and efficient way to track and share your plays.

I think the spreadsheet would be a good idea. It would be best if anyone could just edit in their own plays so no one really had to manage it too much.

[SPX]

^^^ Speaking of your blog, why da fuck you require Google logins? That's the only reason I have never been over there. I don't have a Google login and not sure I want to create one.

[MMA_scientist]

Keeps out the lurkers. Only dedicated members of the secret cabal.

[SPX]

Keeps out the lurkers. Only dedicated members of the secret cabal.

You couldn't do that with just a regular username/password set up?

[zY|]

Keeps out the lurkers. Only dedicated members of the secret cabal.

Read: remains barren

[MMA_scientist]

I would love to do that, but i don't know how. It just asks me for permissions, I send an invite, and that is it. You can use any email as your google ID. It takes about as long as registering here. That said, you are not missing anything.., I am experiencing the same phenomenon we were discussing earlier... I closed it off to only about 40 readers, and all but a few of them have bitten the dust or lost interest... Guys would post a lot then disappear. I can only assume the money management monster ate their bankrolls. I might have to open it up again to get some new guys.

[Svino]

I would love to do that, but i don't know how. It just asks me for permissions, I send an invite, and that is it. You can use any email as your google ID. It takes about as long as registering here. That said, you are not missing anything.., I am experiencing the same phenomenon we were discussing earlier... I closed it off to only about 40 readers, and all but a few of them have bitten the dust or lost interest... Guys would post a lot then disappear. I can only assume the money management monster ate their bankrolls. I might have to open it up again to get some new guys.

If I feel like I have something to say now, I tend to post it over here because it's more active.

I still read/like your blog, though. Keep it up!

[Ludo]

A spreadsheet type deal with everyone's picks per event would be awesome.

[zY|]

I would love to do that, but i don't know how. It just asks me for permissions, I send an invite, and that is it. You can use any email as your google ID. It takes about as long as registering here. That said, you are not missing anything.., I am experiencing the same phenomenon we were discussing earlier... I closed it off to only about 40 readers, and all but a few of them have bitten the dust or lost interest... Guys would post a lot then disappear. I can only assume the money management monster ate their bankrolls. I might have to open it up again to get some new guys.

Perhaps you should open it back up then. Some user turnover is natural but you have no exposure with which to replace the ones that fade away.

[Luke]

All we have to do is start a tracker thread for each event .Zak already does this for all the other sports sections .He also tallies everything up

[MMA_scientist]

If I feel like I have something to say now, I tend to post it over here because it's more active.

I still read/like your blog, though. Keep it up!

I usually post here first, get all my analysis done here, then post my play over there. I would actually like to let it go, as I started it in order to get feedback from a handful of non shertarded people. I have this forum now, which I prefer because it is more active. I didn't know about this forum then or I would have never started it. I have like 2 or 3 readers that still post though and I like getting their opinions. And they won't come over here. I like to get Chaos' opinions, but he has his blog, so I can just check in there and comment, which I do anyways. I can post Charles' spreadsheet here. I think that Joe and Aussie_Jay are really good cappers though, and they refuse to come over here.

[SPX]

^^^ Refusing to come over here is gay. And makes no sense. Didn't you say it's more active here? What's the problem?

[MMA_scientist]

Perhaps you should open it back up then. Some user turnover is natural but you have no exposure with which to replace the ones that fade away.
I have considered it a few times, but then again, 3 or 4 opinions is really plenty. I like to get feedback from a handful of guys I think can cap... and really any more than 3 or 4 is just confusion or repitition. The nice thing about having more guys is they point you in the right direction for fights to look at, so it takes some of the legwork out of it.

[MMA_scientist]

^^^ Refusing to come over here is gay. And makes no sense. Didn't you say it's more active here? What's the problem?

Its not like they rebuked the place, but one guy is in afgahanistan, and has just enough internet time to update his blog, drop a comment and email his mom. One guy just doesn't like the format and bs-ing... whatever.

I actually tried to shut it down once, but for some unknown reason, I feel a weird sense of obligation about it.

[SPX]

Its not like they rebuked the place, but one guy is in afgahanistan, and has just enough internet time to update his blog, drop a comment and email his mom. One guy just doesn't like the format and bs-ing... whatever.

I actually tried to shut it down once, but for some unknown reason, I feel a weird sense of obligation about it.

Well Afghanistan guy could just as easily make that comment over here. So I don't see the problem there.

As for the other dude, well, he just needs to get a sense of humor.

[MMA_scientist]

True. I am shutting it down.

If they really want to know my plays, they know where to find me (most of them don't come for the plays, but for the discussion though). Still, they know where to get it.

Fin.

[SPX]

^^^ Not sure if serious.

[sbjj]

Unless someone else does not do it first, i will start a thread 5 days before an event for just bets only. No discussions on the fights, and no debates over a dudes bets. Just straight up plays. If Zak can keep a tally, that would be sweet.

Be real easy to see where the money is going.

[MMA_scientist]

^ awesome. Thanks.

[Mr. IWS]

Unless someone else does not do it first, i will start a thread 5 days before an event for just bets only. No discussions on the fights, and no debates over a dudes bets. Just straight up plays. If Zak can keep a tally, that would be sweet.

Be real easy to see where the money is going.

No problem at all. The only thing I really dont want to get into grading is all the crazy parlays and prop bets.

If we can keep it to just the fights (win or lose), It shouldnt be a problem for me. As Luke said, I do it for every sport in the forum, and have been doing it for a few years.

::handshake::