Cage Warriors 38 10/1

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/337.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[poopoo333]

3.7u on Grecicho to win 2u


Grecicho is 8-2, and 7 of his wins are by sub. He is a 2x gold medalist in the World Sambo Championships. All of Young's losses are by sub. He only has two wins over guys with winning records, and only one of these guys can be considered decent (Abdul Mohamed) and his win was by majority decision. Young is fighting out of England, which also indicates he will be at the grappling disadvantage.


I am also leaning toward Hecht to beat Mills. Mills has lost all of his fights by sub except for a decision loss (to a BB in Judo, so a grappler). He obviously has problems with grapplers, his best wins are against Marius Zaromskis. Hecht is a HIT squad fighter and a college wrestler, so you know he will have the wrestling advantage, and we have seen what that means lately. He used to be apart of ATT as well. He was a 2002 golden gloves champ (I know Scientist, this probably doesn't mean anything). But unless Mills is some kind of awesome striker with great TDD, I think Hecht will win. @-115, I think Hecht will be worth a bet.

Rosfort-Nees/Veach=I don't know. Rosfort looks like he is a pretty good striker:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3g1uA_lk1Q4

Veach is a short compact midget who I can see being picked apart from the outside. Veach has the wrestling edge, but he gasses quick. He was also dominated by Paul Kelly, who has trouble with grapplers.

[poopoo333]

I guess people agree with me on Hecht, he is up to -140 on 5dimes now. darn

[MMA_scientist]

Thanks Poopoo. I looked at Veach/Nees, and decided to pass. But I like your assessments on the other 2. How did Gregich lose his 2 fights?

[MMA_scientist]

I am going to ride with you on Grecicho. I looked at Young and saw Grecicho's takedowns... I think he probably has this in the bag pretty easy. Young doesn't even sound like he thinks he can win: http://www.eastsideboxing.com/forum/sho ... p?t=257552 (http://www.eastsideboxing.com/forum/showthread.php?t=257552)

2u on Grecicho for now. Might add another 2u in a minute. Looks like an opportunity at the current line.

[poopoo333]

Thanks Poopoo. I looked at Veach/Nees, and decided to pass. But I like your assessments on the other 2. How did Gregich lose his 2 fights?

Both of them were by armbar, back in 2006 against guys who have almost all subs as their wins.

[MMA_scientist]

I can't see any holes in this fight... raising my bet to 5u on Grecicho. He has good takedowns... a good chin.

[poopoo333]

Watching some of Che Mills and:

-His first fight against Zaromski, he was taken down twice and controlled. He was able to pull off some reversals off the cage and get into good position, but he lost them pretty quick. Zaromski isn't a wrestler, so I am sure Mills won't be able to do that as easily against Hecht. Mills won in the first round by KO, but he was losing the entire fight but then he caught a head kick and landed something I couldn't really see that KOd Zaromski (I think it was a kick of his own).

-Mills had a really impressive win over a 3-11 guy. Who cares

-Mills is really not a good grappler at all. It seems like most of the time he gets a takedown is if another shitty grappler is pushing him against the cage, Mills seems to just power out, and he ALWAYS seems to land in mount, but can never do anything, he is always reversed and he ends up on his back afterwards. The only time I saw him capitalize from actually falling into mount is when the guy immediately gave up his back and got RNC'd.

[MMA_scientist]

He also lost to bjj artist James Wilks on a TUF eliminator fight.

I think it is a good play, assuming Hecht has at least passable striking defense and gas. What do we know about Hecht?

[poopoo333]

He also lost to bjj artist James Wilks on a TUF eliminator fight.

I think it is a good play, assuming Hecht has at least passable striking defense and gas. What do we know about Hecht?

I know that he didn't make the cut on TUF 9 with his tryouts or whatever, but I read people saying that he should have been on the show and would have done better then most of the Americans. I only watched one vid of Hecht last night and he was able to take his opponent down and control him on the mat against the cage (I forgot who he was fighting)

[MMA_scientist]

^ Making it into the TUF house is more about personality than fighting ability. Unless he lost an eliminator to get into the house, in which case, I would like to know who beat him.

There is a lot of video on Grecicho, which is why I like that play A LOT. I am less enthused about the Hecht bet, because Mills has a very clear way to win, he has good hands, and we don't know much about Hecht. But, he'll probably win.

I have been playing around with the IF bets and stuff a little on 5dimes. I think I am going to start doing some small 2 fight parlays to get out of my slump. I am just increasing volatility, but I did really well with that locks parlay until I lost it and bet it all on Sokodjou.

[SPX]

I have been playing around with the IF bets and stuff a little on 5dimes.

I've seen "if" bets on Bodog and have never know what they are. Enlighten me. . .

[MMA_scientist]

I've seen "if" bets on Bodog and have never know what they are. Enlighten me. . .


It is basically a parlay, but you can take down part of your bet... it is not an all or nothing proposition.

For example, I could bet $100 of Hecht @ Even... Then IF that wins, I could take that $100 in winnings and let it play on Grecicho @ -200... then IF that wins, I could let that play on Veach.

The difference between the IF bets and a parlay is a parlay is all or nothing. If you lose 1 bet, you wipe out your entire bet. With an IF bet, you can vary the bet sizes, so if you win the first bet, you can still make profit on the bet series.

So you could do a 3 fight IF series... if you win the first bet, you can take half of your winnings down, and just let the other half ride on both of the subsequent bets. So you guarantee a profit on the series if the first fight wins. Then you can still shoot for the moon on the rest of the series. It is basically a parlay though, but you can choose your bet sizes

[SPX]

Interesting. Thanks for the explanation. I might have to try it once or twice just to do it.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ well, if you do parlays, I like it better. Just because I don't like to lose my entire bet if a bet in the parlay loses.

It is nothing you can't do manually... but I am not around most of the time on fight nights, so it is hard for me to manage my bets in game... so I playing around with doing some 2-3 fight parlays to break out of my slump.

[SPX]

It is nothing you can't do manually... but I am not around most of the time on fight nights, so it is hard for me to manage my bets.

I have noticed that you've been conspicously absent lately. You haven't been around for Bellator for a few weeks now and there have been some other events you've missed, too. What's up with that?

[MMA_scientist]

It sounds lame, but I have actually been working alot. I went on vacation, then had to catch up when I got back. I just haven't had time to research like I want to. I do all my gambling from work... so when I get home, I usually spend time with my kids and wife...

I have also been training a lot more. I have a comp coming up and I am working on getting in shape. My interest has been renewed and I have been posting over in the grappling technique forum a lot.

Plus I had to regroup after taking a very hard nose dive on that Shark Fights card. I lost 20 some odd units, half of my take for the year. It was really really stupid of me. I know better, but I got caught up. It is my old achilles heel... I need to just pay someone to restrain me. It fucking wrecked my year. I had had more setbacks this year than ever- having to cash out (I think I mentioned) and then the February losing streak, then the Shrk Fights debacle. I am actually amazed at the return I am having despite my shitty plays. I have switched up my betting strategy a few times to try to break out of my funk... but what seems to work for me time and time again, is just betting on grappling matches with very few variables. That is my magic formula. It works for me consistently, regardless of the line. I just need to get my tilt-propensity under control and stop making bets based on my overall mma knowledge (because honestly, I don't think I am very good at judging fighting ability outside of grappling centric fights).

[MMA_scientist]

I haven't had any interest in the Bellator cards lately. I am really excited about the Galvao/Woodley fight though on SF next week, and I am probably more excited to see Askren/Good than Lesnar/Carwin.

[poopoo333]

and I am probably more excited to see Askren/Good than Lesnar/Carwin.

Yeah, I am not a fan of reruns either.

[MMA_scientist]

^ you know what I meant- Lesnar/Cain

[poopoo333]

^ you know what I meant- Lesnar/Cain

Oh, I thought you might have been looking forward to the UFC 116 rerun on Spike for "Brocktober"





...just kidding, I know what you meant.

[SPX]

Scientist,

Indeed.

Well work . . . wife . . . kids . . . getting out and actually training in martial arts instead of just talking about it and watching it. . . I can see the logic there. Still, I've found myself wondering where the fuck you're at during events as the conversation around here has seemed oddly incomplete.

As for your run of bad luck, that seems to have afflicted most of us. I know that myself, Luke, Zak, PP, and Svino are all crying a little bit right now. Not sure about Ludo or the other guys. I seem to be stuck in a pattern of BIG LOSS-little win-BIG LOSS-little win. To make matters worse, a lot of the fights that I ALMOST bet would've paid out and often the ones I actually choose to bet end up losing.

I've been thinking a lot about how to get back on the winning track, now that my high of +22u for the year has dropped down into the single digits. One thing is a must: more research. I've been far too lazy to actually do proper research on a lot of my bets lately. Yesterday I actually did sit down and invest a couple of hours into Hominick/Garcia and I actually won. So that's encouraging. In other cases it was just bad decisions based on little research or what was in my opinion bad judging.

I've also considered adjusting my strategy and actually dropping larger bets on fights that I am VERY sure of. I almost went 5u on Hominick . . . should have. I almost went 10u on Torres . . . should have. Thankfully, I found my balls in time to go 10u on Aldo, which saved my night, but I'll be the first to say that it could've backfired (but I was very sure of the outcome of that fight, too).

I dunno at this point. I would like to keep the dream alive of finishing this year at +25u or better. At the same time, with the way things have been going, there's another part of me that just wants to finish in the positives at all.

[MMA_scientist]

yeah, I have been in sort of a holding pattern... break even, even, small loss, small win. I haven't really had a lot of movement one way or the other, besides the Shark fights. But that was pure chasing, no research at all.

I only seem to take bad losses when I get out of my own zone... bets on things I shouldn't be betting, but I can't resist. You can usually tell, because I just pop in and say 4u on X, with no explanation... I know how to win, but I lack the discipline and patience sometimes.

I am hoping that these 2 fight parlays will satisfy the junkie in me, while still keeping my bankroll stable.

As for your return- anything positive after the number of bets you have made is actually quite good. You will figure out a money mangement system that works for you, and you will be off to the races.

[poopoo333]

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around


Plays:
3.7u on Grecicho @-185
1.3u on Grecicho @-215
1.4u on Hecht @-140

[MMA_scientist]

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around

people insist on calling it luck...

[poopoo333]

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around

people insist on calling it luck...

I call Dunham losing the decision bad luck. That fucked me

[SPX]

It's a new month SPX.... our luck will turn around


That's what I said at the beginning of September! But I do appreciate your spirit. And I also feel better, from a betting perspective, about October's fights than I did about September's.

I'm calling it now. . .

OCTOBER: THE MONTH WE ALL MAKE OUR COMEBACK!!!

[Mr. IWS]

I know that myself, Luke, Zak, PP, and Svino are all crying a little bit right now.

Im really only losing in Mma, everything else, Im doing pretty well. I think thats why I havent jumped off a cliff with all these MMA losses.

[SPX]

I call Dunham losing the decision bad luck. That fucked me

Yeah, I think there's definitely a luck factor in two ways: 1. the judges, and 2. fighters getting "lucky" KOs/subs.

[SPX]

Im really only losing in Mma, everything else, Im doing pretty well. I think thats why I havent jumped off a cliff with all these MMA losses.

Yeah, I was just referring to MMA bets.

[MMA_scientist]

I call Dunham losing the decision bad luck. That fucked me

Yeah, that sucked.

For every bad decision that hurts you, there is one that goes your way (for me, it was the Sherk bet- though Sherk was the right play, regardless of the decision, IMO). It doesn't make it sting less though when it happens...

negative variance: it is real.

[MMA_scientist]

I call Dunham losing the decision bad luck. That fucked me

Yeah, I think there's definitely a luck factor in two ways: 1. the judges, and 2. fighters getting "lucky" KOs/subs.

Yeah but it goes both ways, you win like that too... so I don't think it is much of a factor over a long period of time. It certainly can fuck your monthly tally though...

[SPX]

Yeah but it goes both ways, you win like that too... so I don't think it is much of a factor over a long period of time. It certainly can fuck your monthly tally though...

Yeah, the unfortunate reality is that you have to take the good with the bad. I'd prefer to just take the good. . .

[MMA_scientist]

I think I learned a lesson this past month. I have to stop betting on what I think the judges should care about... and start betting on what they actually do care about. I still totally fail to see the relevance of top position as an indicator that you are winning a fight... whose torso is facing up vs. down has no relevance unless big punches are being landed... but fights are ended just as often by submission as GNP...

But the fact is, that is how it is being scored (except sometimes, they sometimes suddenly understand grappling and award the decision to agressive bottom game guy)...

This Woodley/Galvao fight is going to put my bjj vs. wrestler theory to the test. But Galvao is more of a takedown and top control bjj guy, so it is going to be tough for him. Galvao's bjj has not looked that good in MMA...

[poopoo333]

I think Woodley will probably try and keep it standing.

[poopoo333]

What time is this event? 5dimes says "3:30 PM", but in what time zone?

[SPX]

The only Galvao fight I've seen was against Jorge Patino and I was not particularly impressed.

[MMA_scientist]

I think Woodley will probably try and keep it standing.

probably, but I think Galvao can take him down, at least a few times. Galvao will either give him the Jason High treatment, submit him, or gas out trying for the sub and get beat standing. I do think Galvao will win round 1 though.

That said, Galvao does not have a good gas tank and has not translated his bjj to MMA very well (though he is undefeated- the High fight was a total screw job)... but he has been fighting a lot of good grapplers- Patino is a world class grappler too. Stewart was a bjj BB.

[MMA_scientist]

What time is this event? 5dimes says "3:30 PM", but in what time zone?


It starts at 6:45 London time... so it started at 1:45 EST

It started an hour or so ago... our fights won't go off for several hours though, there is a bunch of ammy fights on the card.

BTW, I have been reading bad things about Grecicho...

[MMA_scientist]

poopoo...

updates: http://twitter.com/BritMMA

main card should start in about an hour

[poopoo333]

BTW, I have been reading bad things about Grecicho...

Like?

[MMA_scientist]

edit, the main card is starting.

http://www.cagewarriors.com/forums/show ... hp?t=60364 (http://www.cagewarriors.com/forums/showthread.php?t=60364)

[MMA_scientist]

BTW, I have been reading bad things about Grecicho...

Like?

he is a can smasher... he only has one move (triangle choke), and he has never fought anyone with any athleticm or legitimate training. Could just be brit homer talk...

[poopoo333]

edit, the main card is starting.

http://www.cagewarriors.com/forums/show ... hp?t=60364 (http://www.cagewarriors.com/forums/showthread.php?t=60364)

I am going to be at work :(

But I just bought a droid so I can find updates.

[poopoo333]

[quote="MMA_scientist":3g6b24pf]
BTW, I have been reading bad things about Grecicho...

Like?

he is a can smasher... he only has one move (triangle choke), and he has never fought anyone with any athleticm or legitimate training. Could just be brit homer talk...[/quote:3g6b24pf]

LOL, like Young isn't a can smasher that just gets submitted in his free time? Only one of Grecicho's losses is against a guy with a losing record.

[Mr. IWS]

Thanks for the link Scientist. MMA in the office FTW!

[Mr. IWS]

Thanks for the link Scientist. MMA in the office FTW!

LOL, thought that was a stream.

[MMA_scientist]

ha.. no, just a list of the fights in order so you can see where they are with the updates.

[SPX]

LOL, thought that was a stream.

Bwahahahahahahahaha!!!!!!! Nigga you got PUNKED!

[Mr. IWS]

I did get owned...lol

[MMA_scientist]

i tried to find a stream, but none of them work. Those brits don't know what they are doing.

[poopoo333]

i tried to find a stream, but none of them work. Those brits don't know what they are doing.

They suck at match making too, they put their strikers up against wrestlers in a cage.

[MMA_scientist]

One more fight before Che Mills...

[poopoo333]

One more fight before Che Mills...

Make sure you post who wins!

[MMA_scientist]

less than 10 seconds ago via Twitter for BlackBerry® Mills has a huge start flooring hecht early on$ the american is cut on top of his head and the dr is checking it out

.I think it looks a lot worse than it is..they restart and hecht shoots in looking for the TD

Marc goddard splits them up for inactively, mills sprawls out of a shoot lands some huge shots before hecht finally gets the td

The team at cageside are covered in blood as hecht's head is gushing the red stuff.He recovered well but was unable to work past mills guard

Mills' round. He has crazy power !

[poopoo333]

Fuck

[MMA_scientist]

Hecht looks better this round..but the dr has been called again.

[MMA_scientist]

Hecht has been having more success with his TD's but mills is still landing. Shots when he can and is proving difficult to take down

[MMA_scientist]

Everytime hecht shoots in he is taking some damage from mills and mills is trying to open up the cut when he's on his back

* keep in mind this is from a british tweet, i think Mills' management team... so it may be him seeing the silver lining

[MMA_scientist]

That being said hecht has finally got into a good position and is in mills's half guard looking land shots after having no luck with subs

the tide turns... USA USA

[MMA_scientist]

Rd 2 to hetch and as the cage crew mop up the blood. His corner work hard on his cut. It's going to be very tight as rd3 starts

[MMA_scientist]

Mills takes the UD. Sorry poopoo

[SPX]

Gayness.

[poopoo333]

If sambo guy comes through I will come out ahead

[MMA_scientist]

I followed you on Sambo guy, which I rarely do... I did look at both guys though...

bring it home sambo guy.

[MMA_scientist]

Sergej comin out 2 bounced up eye of the tiger. Looks so chilled he could just b goin 2 asda

[SPX]

War Sambo Guy

[MMA_scientist]

Young deducted point. Don't know why. Sergej looks dangerous with subs but is FUCKED.

* don't know what this means.

[MMA_scientist]

Backstage at min but being told jason young just broke the world record for sub escapes in a rd

[MMA_scientist]

we're done poopoo

Young wins round 2. Wrestling looks mint. Grecicho exhausted!

[SPX]

we're done poopoo

Young wins round 2. Wrestling looks mint. Grecicho exhausted!

It ain't over 'til it's over.

[MMA_scientist]

Young dominates third from top position

it hurts... it hurts real bad.

[MMA_scientist]

could be a draw b/c of the point.

Cmon draw...

[MMA_scientist]

Nope. Young UD.

Not sure how they got that, sounds like Sergej won rd 1, plus the point... but it is the UK, so who knows. Anyway... fuck.

[MMA_scientist]

Jason young took a ud.....and people accused me of setting him up and making a mismatch !!!

Dear twitter guy: fuck you.

[SPX]

Man, that sucks. Sorry guys.

[poopoo333]

Huge loss today. Great. I usually do good on these smaller shows.

[Havis Jr]

I put a bet on veach, I got a feeling if it makes it to a dec there is no way they give it to anyone but the brit.

[MMA_scientist]

from reading the pbp, I would only bet the brits. Some serious homerism going on. I can't say for sure because I am just reading...

The spiral continues.

[SPX]

^^^ It just seems statistically unlikely at this point that Veach will lose. That's just too many underdogs.

Count it. Dump on Veach everyone!

[poopoo333]

I put a bet on veach, I got a feeling if it makes it to a dec there is no way they give it to anyone but the brit.
There is no way veach is going to perform well in the late rounds...his gas tank sucks

[Havis Jr]

Veach wins round through lay and pray but is already knacKered. Rosfort confidence up at end


ohh boy

[poopoo333]

Veach wins round through lay and pray but is already knacKered. Rosfort confidence up at end


ohh boy

Sounds like veach/kelly and veach/edgar. I hope he pulls through for you

[SPX]

It's amazing how many fighters would have completely different careers if only their cardio didn't suck.

Carwin would be heavyweight champ right now.

Baroni might still be relevant.

Tom Lawlor wouldn't be on the verge of getting cut.

It really is amazing. . .

[Mr. IWS]

Baroni might still be relevant.
.

Pump your breaks bro.

[SPX]

So what the fuck, did Veach win?

[Havis Jr]

The brit twitter man says Veach dominated all 5 rounds with takedowns and won without a shadow of a doubt.

[SPX]

^^^ I saw that, but I guess we're still waiting for an official word.

[Havis Jr]

http://www.fightopinion.com/2010/10/01/ ... -paranoia/ (http://www.fightopinion.com/2010/10/01/bad-mma-judging-paranoia/)

[SPX]

Interesting article, and also the truth.