UFC 121 Betting Results [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

MMA_scientist

10-26-2010, 10:57 AM

Thanks for doing this Zak...

As an aside, your MMA tracker results don't have much meaning without a point of reference for the bankroll though. For example sbjj is +41u... but IIRC he uses a 400u bankroll... which means he is what most of us would call +10u. Similarly, I am down -6u, since i use a 50u bankroll, most of us would consider that -12u. Just saying, it has no meaning without a constant binding us all together. It would be more useful if it reflected a percentage of total bankroll.

Looking at the totals, it would look like sbjj is the man, but I think svino is actually the hot hand right now (since he uses a 100u bankroll) +17u would be a better return (17%) than 41 units on a 400u bankroll (10%).

Mr. IWS

10-26-2010, 11:04 AM

Wouldn't the actual units themselves, won or lost, represent the actual meaning of the tracker? Its just a unit tracker, not a ROI tracker.

As far as a bankroll, I don't even use one. Unless you consider whatever is in my checking account, my roll.

MMA_scientist

10-26-2010, 11:15 AM

^^ well, let's say I have $5000. I can divide that into 100, $50 units, as most would. So 1u= $50.

But I could also just say, "ok, I am using a 5000u bankroll, so 1u=$1". So instead of saying "1u on Cain @ +135 to win 1.35u" I could say "50u on Cain @ +135 to win 67.5u". We both won $67.50. But how I define my unit makes a big difference in the perceived result.

For guys that don't have a defined bankroll, like you and Luke, where 1u = some dollar amount, I think it is ok to just assume a 100u bankroll. Because your 40u bet would obviously be way out of whack with what you would normally bet, which would be 1-5u (the same as most of the world).

Not that I care that much, but I just wanted to point out that the way it is being done does not really give much useful information. It actually makes me look better than I really am at this point... I think it would make sense to have everyone post their units as 1% of bankroll in the future, so we have a standardized measure.

You see touts use this trick all the time to get to the top of the list on tracker websites. If you go to handicappers watchdog or something, you will see some touts that are up like 41,987u. But each unit only represents like 1/10,000 of the bankroll. Whereas most of the world uses 1u= 1% or 1u=2%

sbjj

10-26-2010, 11:23 AM

If I was to use a 100 unit bankroll, I would be placing like .25 and .15 unit bets on any bets through my online books. Each unit is $200.00. There is no way I could use a 100 unit bankroll the way I bet.

I also know alot of guys that say they use a 50 or 100 unit bankroll, but when they lose that bankroll, they just create another 50 or 100 unit bankroll.

Mr. IWS

10-26-2010, 11:26 AM

Thats cool with me if we do that. It takes the same about of work to add up 1% or 1 unit.

Maybe we should just write up some guidelines like that, post it in the first post of each events betting thread, and that way we all know what we are doing.

Mr. IWS

10-26-2010, 11:27 AM

MMA_scientist

10-26-2010, 11:30 AM

I think you guys are missing my point. I understand that you are playing with more money than most of us.

But in terms of showing who is actually winning at the moment, a standard unit would be helpful. I am not saying any of this to knock anyone. Just that if I were to pop in and see the unit totals, I would think that sbjj (just using you and svino as examples, since you two happen to be on top this week) is 10x more sucessful than Havis, who is +5u. In reality, Havis is only 5u behind you.

I understand that you have practical considerations in your bankroll. But for the purpose of the tracker, I think it is more helpful if 1u always = 1% of bankroll.

If not, then I hereby declare a 1000u bankroll. My next bet is 50u on X @ -150 to win 33u. See how that could be confusing? Or better yet, I now use a 1million unit bankroll. 10,000u on Lombard @ -500 to win 2000u. I am dominating, can you guys belive I am up 2000u in just 1 day?

MMA_scientist

10-26-2010, 11:31 AM

I also know alot of guys that say they use a 50 or 100 unit bankroll, but when they lose that bankroll, they just create another 50 or 100 unit bankroll.

Agree

Thats why I dont even bother with a bankroll. I'm not gonna stop if I'm down 50 units.

I use a 100u bankroll, but since I had to cash out, I went down to 50u bankroll. If lose my bankroll, I quit. If I manage to go down 50-100u, why would I keep playing?

sbjj

10-26-2010, 11:40 AM

I think you guys are missing my point. I understand that you are playing with more money than most of us.

But in terms of showing who is actually winning at the moment, a standard unit would be helpful. I am not saying any of this to knock anyone. Just that if I were to pop in and see the unit totals, I would think that sbjj (just using you and svino as examples, since you two happen to be on top this week) is 10x more sucessful than Havis, who is +5u. In reality, Havis is only 5u behind you.

I understand that you have practical considerations in your bankroll. But for the purpose of the tracker, I think it is more helpful if 1u always = 1% of bankroll.

If not, then I hereby declare a 1000u bankroll. My next bet is 50u on X @ -150 to win 33u. See how that could be confusing?

But if you had done that, you would look to be in even worse shape. It cuts both ways. Shit, just have a tracker that tracks units, percantage, and actual dollar amount.

Also, anyone could see that Svino had the best 121, dude went 10-2, as I only made one play the whole card.

sbjj

10-26-2010, 11:44 AM

Also, are you sure Svino is using a 100unit roll at the current time. If so, he had 25% of his entire roll on this card.

Mr. IWS

10-26-2010, 11:45 AM

If not, then I hereby declare a 1000u bankroll. My next bet is 50u on X @ -150 to win 33u. See how that could be confusing? Or better yet, I now use a 1million unit bankroll. 10,000u on Lombard @ -500 to win 2000u. I am dominating, can you guys belive I am up 2000u in just 1 day?

To alleviate that problem with the baseball tracker, we limited plays to a 50 unit max. Perhaps we should do that in here?

Mr. IWS

10-26-2010, 11:48 AM

I think you guys are missing my point. I understand that you are playing with more money than most of us.

I am seeing your point, but to me, a unit is the "currency" we are "wagering" on the tracker. Whoever has the most "units" is the leader.

I'm not really playing more than anyone else, I'm probably right in the middle. 100 bucks a unit is all I do.

sbjj

10-26-2010, 11:53 AM

[quote="MMA_scientist":3i7ohub0]
If not, then I hereby declare a 1000u bankroll. My next bet is 50u on X @ -150 to win 33u. See how that could be confusing? Or better yet, I now use a 1million unit bankroll. 10,000u on Lombard @ -500 to win 2000u. I am dominating, can you guys belive I am up 2000u in just 1 day?

To alleviate that problem with the baseball tracker, we limited plays to a 50 unit max. Perhaps we should do that in here?[/quote:3i7ohub0]

Zak, if the percentage is just as easy for you, I'd say just go with that. But by that measure, you would have some real depressed dudes up in here at the current time. It is the most true method of success I would think. But bettors strive for different goals, at this point and time I am not looking to double my bankroll every 6 months.

Mr. IWS

10-26-2010, 11:55 AM

What about guys like Me and Luke, that use a percentage? Just default to 1% per unit?

I think the units is better, but that's just me.

sbjj

10-26-2010, 12:05 PM

I am cool with whatever.

Svino

10-26-2010, 12:53 PM

Also, are you sure Svino is using a 100unit roll at the current time. If so, he had 25% of his entire roll on this card.

I did indeed. Spread out over seven events, of course.

I'm fine with keeping the tracker the way it is. Scientist is right that comparisons don't make much sense if we don't have a consistent definition of a unit w.r.t. bankroll. But sbjj is also correct that even that won't help if we don't have a consistent definition of a bankroll. We're not likely to have that though, with a mixed group hobbyist and professional gamblers. Obviously, a person who is using their entire savings as their "bankroll" is under much more pressure to bet conservatively than someone who has a fraction of their savings set aside for gambling.

Personally, my bankroll is of the "I would probably stop gambling if I lost it" type, rather than the "I would be out on the street if I lost it" or the "I would just replenish it" types.

Ideally, a "unit" would be something that we all treat the same way. "What would you bet at even odds on a coin-toss weighted +1% in your favor?" or something like that. As far as I can tell by watching people's betting, that at least seems to be close to the case (perhaps with the exception of the occasional 40 unit bet). So I think as long as we're keeping it friendly and not trying to game the system on each other with 10,000 unit bankrolls, the current system probably works as well as any. I'm also fine with moving to a direct % system though, if people would rather do that.

MMA_scientist

10-26-2010, 01:57 PM

I am fine with whatever. To must of us, we know how each other bet, so it makes sense. But if an outside came in, it would not make any real sense.

I don't view it as a competition anyway. I see it is as way to keep track of each other's progress and maybe see who is playing better at the moment if we want to tail.

No biggie either way, but if you want it to be a true indicator of who is playing the best, there needs to be some consistent measure of a unit.

YoungTRK484

10-26-2010, 05:27 PM

[quote="MMA_scientist":bn0sf2ka]I think you guys are missing my point. I understand that you are playing with more money than most of us.

I am seeing your point, but to me, a unit is the "currency" we are "wagering" on the tracker. Whoever has the most "units" is the leader.

I'm not really playing more than anyone else, I'm probably right in the middle. 100 bucks a unit is all I do.[/quote:bn0sf2ka]

Same for me, it translates well as I mostly bet NFL and NCAA football. Always laying 1.1 units to win 1 (aka $110 to win $100) and it translates pretty well to MMA as well, even though there are no "spreads" per se.

SPX

10-26-2010, 07:06 PM

I agree with Scientist that "1 unit" means nothing if we have no idea what a unit is in relation to your bankroll. It's just an empty number.

ctm0808

10-26-2010, 10:34 PM

Just to make sure everyone understands where I'm at, I use a 10,000 unit bankroll. So these O-3, 1-3, and 0-5 results i've posted here have really had no impact whatsoever. Yeah.. that's it...

ARRRGHgGGgGGRRGHHH THIS PLACE IS CURSED. You guys owe me some money.

sbjj

10-27-2010, 01:10 AM

If the problem is me being up 40 units...just put a disclaimer next to my name showing that I have somewhere between a 350 and 450 unit bankroll. I must wonder if I was down 40 units if this would be a problem. And i very well could have been down 40 units. but i would not excuse it by having a 400 unit pot. The fact of the matter would be i was still down 40 units, and not doing to hot.

Since i pretty much know how everyone bets in here, i will personally just use it as a gauge of who i think is hot at the moment.

SPX

10-27-2010, 01:52 AM

^^^ I don't think you're any sort of problem at all . . . I think the problem is that everyone is doing their own thing and posting unit totals (for anyone) doesn't mean shit.

I mean, if I said I won 40 units then that means I had about a 100% increase in my bankroll. For someone like yourself, it means something totally different. I'm sure you see why Scientist would be concerned about a situation like this.

Mr. IWS

10-27-2010, 08:45 AM

Why dont we just do it like we do the money contest then. Everyone gets 1000 unit bankroll to start and we go from there.

MMA_scientist

10-27-2010, 09:23 AM

The only issue with doing it like the contest is that it complicates things for everyone, and also has the drawback of actually making it seem like a competition, which it is not (at least to me).

I think we can resolve the issue by just putting in parentheses after the name how t hat person defines a unit: mma_scientist (1u= 2%)
svino (1u = 1%)
sbjj (1u = .25%)
luke (1u = $100)

sbjj, I would have the same concern if you were down 40u. The issue is not how much you are up or down, for all you know someone else could be up a lot more actual money than you... it is not about dollars won and lost. It is about your 1u being 1/400th of your bankroll. So if you make a 40u bet, that it is not that big of a deal (again not in terms of dollars, but actual hit to your bankroll). But for many of us, 40u means betting 40% or 80% of our entire bankroll.

Luke

10-27-2010, 10:04 AM

Yeah I dont care what we do . Heck I dont think most of us should since we arent winning lately .

I have a 75 unit bankroll so 100 dollars is like 1.3 % of my bankroll which is still a smaller bet than most people here make vs the size of the bankroll

I havent read much of this thread but why doesnt everyone just put bets in like this

Lesnar -130 5%

Like I said I dont care because honestly I dont pay much attention to the thread since I track my own bets anyway and I'm not winning lately

Mr. IWS

10-27-2010, 10:21 AM

I think we can resolve the issue by just putting in parentheses after the name how t hat person defines a unit: mma_scientist (1u= 2%)
svino (1u = 1%)
sbjj (1u = .25%)
luke (1u = $100)

That works for me.

MMA_scientist

10-27-2010, 10:24 AM

Luke, I track my bets as well... but I like to see how everyone else is doing. Most of us are losing atm, but it has only been a minute, just bad timing. Had he started it after UFC 120, most of us would be up considerably. It will balance out over time. I guarantee you that most of us will be well into + territory in 6 months. Anyway, I like to see how everyone else is doing, so when they mention a possible bet, I know if I should pay attention or not.

Just leave it like it is, sorry I brought it up.

Luke

10-27-2010, 10:31 AM

Just leave it like it is, sorry I brought it up.

I wasnt criticizing the thread maybe you took me wrong I was just saying the thread means less to me pesonally because I'm not winning lately . We can do whatever you want and I'll participate ::handshake::

this :

mma_scientist (1u= 2%)
svino (1u = 1%)
sbjj (1u = .25%)
luke (1u = $100)

is basically what I just said in my post you would just have to chance mine to (1u =1.3%)

I think this way would work best

Mr. IWS

10-27-2010, 11:03 AM

Ill just add the percentages/unit amounts, like Scientist said, and we can continue going the way we were. I think it was a good idea. I'm just glad I thought of it first.

::handshake::

YoungTRK484

10-27-2010, 04:35 PM

UFC 121 Betting Results

sbjj 2-0 +38.5
Svino 10-2 +21.9
poopoo333 5-3 +8.7
MMA_scientist 2-0 +4.97
Havis Jr 4-4 +4.15
YoungTRK484 2-1 +.9

SPX 2-3 -.4
LudoCain 2-4 -1.82
Scott 0-1 -2
IWS Zak 0-2 -2.4
ctm0808 0-5 -3.4
Luke 1-5 -7.6

I think I actually went 2-2, wins on McGee and Sanchez for a total profit of 1 unit, losses on Brock and Tito for a loss of 2.1 units, down 1.1 units overall for the night.
::crying::