11-1-10 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

11-01-2010, 03:12 PM

Ben Burns

10 UNDER vancouver/nj
10 under 51 Houston
9 Houston +5
8 MLB Texas

BEN BURNS-NHL

10* UNDER VANCOUVER/NJ DEVILS

me: New Jersey Devils vs. Vancouver Canucks Game Time: 11/1/2010 10:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Vancouver and New Jersey to finish UNDER the total. The Devils have had real trouble scoring goals. They scored one goal (for the sixth time) last time out. They've now scored three goals or less in 15 straight games, including two or less in five straight. Now, the Devils will have to take on an elite goalie (Luongo) and they'll have to do so without one of their top offensive players, Zach Parise. Note that Parise led the team with 38 goals and 44 assists last season. The Devils still have an elite goalie of their own, as the seemingly ageless Brodeur continues to play at a high level. When betting a game early, its never wise to automatically count on which goalies will be in net. Things can occasionally change over the day. Still, we can still "assume" at least find out what the expected matchup will be. In this case, its expected to be Luongo vs. Brodeur. I mention the Luongo vs. Brodeur matchup as I feel that both goalies will have something to prove. This is the first time that the two goalies will have gone head to head since the Olympics. As you may know, both Brodeur and Luongo were the goalies for Canada's gold-medal winning team. Brodeur began as the starter. However, when he struggled, Luongo replaced him and took the team the rest of the way. (Coincidentally, the Olympics were played right here at Vancouver.) Anyway, I think its safe to say that both goalies will want to be at their very best. The Devils, who are playing the 4th leg of a a 5-game road trip, are off a 3-1 loss last time out. That's noteworthy for a couple of reasons. First, we find the UNDER at 70-41-14 the last 125 times that the Devils played their previous three games on the road, incl. 14-5-3 the past 2+ seasons. Additionally, the UNDER is a profitable 33-14-3 the last 50 times that they were off a loss by two or more goals, incl. 5-1 their last six in that situation. I expect those stats to improve here. *10

10* UNDER HOUSTON/INDIANAPOLIS (50 or better)

Game: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Time: 11/1/2010 8:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Houston and Indianapolis to finish UNDER the total. These teams have a history of playing high-scoring games against each other and their Week 1 game finished above the total with 58 points, a 34-24 Houston victory. Those results have helped to provide us with an extremely high O/U line. I believe that its too high. While the first meeting did finish with 58 points, a closer look reveals that it easily could have been lower scoring. In fact, the score was only 6-0 after the first quarter and just 20-10 in fourth. Things didn't get "crazy" until the fourth quarter, when the teams combined for 28 points, incl. a 73 yrd Manning pass to Austin Collie in the final minute of the game. (Note that Indy's other 4th quarter TD was scored by Dwight Clark.) In other words, that game easily could have been lower-scoring. Speaking of Austin Collie and Dwight Clark, the two players who scored for the Colts in the fourth quarter of that game, both are expected to be out here. Clark is always one of Peyton's favorite targets and Collie leads the team in TD receptions. Also, note that running back Addai is doubtful and that his backup (Donald Brown) is questionable. In other words, while Manning will always be very dangerous, the Colts' offense will be without some key parts. Yes, the Texans are a team which tends to get into high-scoring games. As a result, we tend to think of them throwing the ball all over the place. However, if we again look at the earlier meeting, we find that they only three 17 times (Schaub was 9 of 17 for 107 yrds) and that they ran the ball 42 times. As that formula was successful, the Texans figure to try and run the ball quite regularly again this evening. As you know, frequent running plays generally help to keep the clock moving. Also, even though the offense is very capable, note that Houston has scored 14 points or less in two of its last four games. The Colts have only played two home games and they played excellent defense in each. They limited the Giants to 14 points and 257 total yards here back in September. Then, in their most recent game here, they held KC to only nine points on 261 yards. Including those results, the UNDER is 11-9 the last 20 Colts' "home" games. That doesn't sound that impressive. However, most of those O/U lines were a lot lower than this one. In fact, if we look at the scores from those 20 games we find that only two of them finished with greater than 52 points. Also, note that the UNDER is 6-3 the last nine times that the Colts were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range and 4-1 the last five times that they played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. As for the Texans, they've seen the UNDER go 2-0 on Monday Nights and 7-3 the last 10 times that they were listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range, including 3-1 the last four. The last time that the Texans played here at Indianapolis was last November. That was expected to be a high-scoring game but the final score was just 20-17. I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying beneath the generously high O/U number. *10

9* HOUSTON (+4 or better)

Game: Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Time: 11/1/2010 8:35:00 PM Prediction: Houston Texans Reason: I'm playing on HOUSTON. I won with the Texans when these teams met at Houston, in Week 1. Often, in a "divisional rematch," I might consider coming back the other way and playing on the team which lost the first meeting. Every game needs to be looked at on its own though. In this case, I believe that the value again lies with the Texans. Both teams are very good. Both come in at 4-2. Both are off a bye. While the extra week off helped, both teams are still dealing with some injury issues. The Colts' problems are arguably worse though. Tight end Dwight Clark is out, as is receiver Austin Collie. (Collie leads the team with 6 TD receptions.) Also, running back Addai is doubtful and his backup (Donald Brown) is questionable. The Texans ran all over the Colts in the first meeting. The Colts run defense ranks 26th against the run. I feel that this game could easily come down to the wire, which makes getting points an attractive proposition. These teams are both off a bye. Prior to that, both had been involved in close games. The Colts beat Washington by three in their last game. The Texans beat the Chiefs by four in their last game. The Texans have now seen two of their last three games decided by a touchdown or less. The Colts have seen two of their last three decided by a field goal. All three of those games were decided by 10 or fewer. Looking at the recent series history and we find that these teams have also played a number of close games against each other. Houston did win the earlier meeting by 10 points. However, prior to that, four straight meetings had been decided by eight or fewer points with three of those games being decided by six or less. The two most recent games here at Indianapolis had scores of 20-17 and 33-27. This O/U line is extremely high; its currently in the low 50s. That's noteworthy as we find the Colts at 1-4 ATS the last five times that they played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater, including a 0-2 ATS mark when playing a home game with a line that high. During that stretch, the Texans have gone 3-1 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater. They've also gone 11-5 ATS the last 16 times that they were getting points. With this one coming down to the wire, I expect the Texans to improve on those stats. *9

BURNS MLB

7* TEXAS RANGERS

Game: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers Game Time: 11/1/2010 7:55:00 PM Prediction: Texas Rangers Reason: I'm playing on TEXAS. By now, everyone knows the situation. The Giants are up 3-1. Its Lee vs. Lincecum. Its the final game in Texas etc etc. So, I won't re-hash everything you already know. While we didn't see it in Game 1, obviously, Lee and Lincecum are both extremely capable. Lincecum wasn't great but he didn't need to be. He still got the win, as Lee really struggled. With his team in a "must win" game, I expect Lee, a "playoff expert," to respond with his very best effort. You may recall that the Giants also beat an elite pitcher (Halladay) in the opening game vs. the Phillies. Lincecum got the better of Halladay in that one. However, in the rematch, with his team facing elimination, the veteran Halladay stepped up his game and outpitched the younger Lincecum. I had the Phillies in that one and I expect Lee to also get the better of the younger Lincecum here. While the price may initially seem a little on the steep side, note that the Rangers are a profitable 17-6 (+7.3) on the season, when listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range. On the other hand, the Giants were 2-7 (-3.8) as road underdogs in the +150 to +175 range. Looking back further and we find them at a money-burning 10-29 (-13.4) in that situation the past few seasons. While the Giants are clearly in the driver's seat, I expect them to have to postpone their celebrations, at least temporarily. *7