11-3-10 [Archive] - Investwithsports.com Sportstalk and Gambling forum

Mr. IWS

11-03-2010, 02:23 PM

BEN BURNS CFB

10* SOUTH FLORIDA (-13 or better)

Game: Rutgers vs. South Florida Game Time: 11/3/2010 7:00:00 PM Prediction: South Florida Reason: I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. I won with the Bulls their last game. Getting +9.5 points, they won outright at Cincinnati. Now, off a bye last week, they return home to take on a struggling Rutgers squad. I expect the Bulls, who should have plenty of motivation, to follow up the win over Cincy with a double-digit "blowout" win here. There are several reasons why I say that the Bulls should have "plenty of motivation." Here are a few of them. For starters, every team likes to win on National TV. That goes for both teams though, so that by itself isn't a real advantage. However, the fans also tend to get extra "fired up" when the cameras are around and some of that excitement/energy often gets passed on to to the players of the home team, making a positive difference. For the Bulls, there's also have a matter of some "payback." Last season, Rutgers hammered them by a score of 31-0. The previous year, in the most recent game here, Rutgers embarrassed them by a score of 49-16. Yes, this year's team has a new coach (Skip Holtz) who wasn't here for those losses. However, with 15 returning starters, there are plenty of lingering bad memories. Additionally, Holtz and co. would love to accomplish something that the previous regime failed to do in recent seasons. Additional motivation should come from the fact that the Bulls lost their last home game, getting upset by Syracuse. Nothing like a blowout win to erase the bad taste of that game. Perhaps most important, with the win over the Bearcats, the Bulls have gotten themselves back into contention in the Big East. A win here and they're at 2-2 (in Big East play) and alone in third place. A win also would give them a shot at finishing over .500 in the conference for the first time in three years. While the Bulls are off a big win, the Knights check in off a blowout loss (41-21) vs. Pittsburgh. They're 4-3 on the season but just 1-6 at the betting window. The Bulls offense admittedly hasn't been that great, but I feel they're moving in the right direction. The Bulls average 30.7 points and 339 yards at home. The same can't be said for Rutgers. The Knights are averaging just 21 points and a mere 208.3 yards on the road. Defensively, the Bulls are allowing 10.5 points and 270.7 yards at home. Rutgers, on the other hand, is allowing 25 points and 423.9 yards per game on the road. Holtz had this to say about this game and his players: "They understand what they've got to get done and the way this football team has kind of owned us, especially the last two years." I expect his team to respond accordingly. *10

BEN BURNS NBA

10* SACRAMENTO (+4 or better)

Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Sacramento Kings Game Time: 11/3/2010 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Sacramento Kings Reason: I'm playing on SACRAMENTO. I successfully played against the Kings in their last game. At the time, they were laying a small handful of points vs. Toronto. In my analysis, I wrote that they'd been involved in a number of close games and that I felt that one would also come down to the wire. That's exactly what happened, with the Kings eventually earning a 3-point victory. That result worked out very well. For starters, I able to cash my ticket on the Raptors. Also, the fact that the Kings failed to cover helped us a bit in the "line value" department here. (If Sacramento had blown out Toronto, we likely wouldn't be getting such a generous line here.) Additionally, the fact that the Kings were able to erase a large 2nd half deficit figures to provide them with both "confidence" and "momentum," going into tonight's showdown. Phil Jackson knows that "momentum" and "confidence" can certainly be a factor. He said this of the Kings: "They have just come off a really big win coming back from a deficit in the fourth quarter, beating Toronto, so they have a lot of enthusiasm up there. They're playing with some confidence, I think that’s the biggest part." True, the Lakers have already been playing at a very high level. With last night's 124-105 blowout of Memphis, they're now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, they're playing the second of back to back games here and also their fourth game in the past six nights. That makes this a fairly tough scheduling spot, even though the starters were able to get some rest in the second half of last night's game. While they weren't able to break through with a SU victory, the Kings played the Lakers tough last season. All four meetings were decided by single-digits. Overall, the Kings are 5-3 ATS vs. the Lakers the last two seasons. With all four of Sacramento's games this season being decided by six points or less, I won't be surprised if this one again comes right down to the wire. Therefore, while I believe the Kings have a great shot at the outright upset, I'll grab the points. *10

BEN BURNS NHL

8* UNDER flames/wings

Game: Detroit Red Wings vs. Calgary Flames Game Time: 11/3/2010 9:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Calgary and Detroit to finish UNDER the total. These teams have both been involved in a number of high-scoring games recently. That doesn't mean we need to expect another tonight though. In fact, I expect just the opposite. Calgary, in particular, figures to be extremely motivated to deliver an improved defensive effort. Last time out, the Flames were humiliated 7-2 by Washington. They've now allowed a whopping 17 goals their last three games. That prompted Calgary center Brendan Morrison to note: "Seventeen goals against in three games is horrific. This team has always been known as a defensive team and it's still in there. It's in this room. We got away from it the last couple games." One doesn't need to "read between the lines" to guess that Calgary will be emphasizing improved defensive play here. While they should shore up their goals allowed, scoring may be tough to come by for the Flames. Jimmy Howard is expected to get the call for the Wings. Howard is 4-0-1 with a 2.14 goals-against average this season and he's got a superb 1.50 GAA in posting back to back victories over the Flames. Making them even further motivated to improve defensively, note that the Flames were already beaten 4-2 at Detroit a couple of weeks ago. That's significant as we find the UNDER at 105-68-19 the L192 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss, including 47-33-5 the last couple of seasons. During that stretch, it should also be mentioned that the Flames have seen the UNDER go 10-6 after having played three consecutive games which finished above the total. Neither team has played since 10/30. That is also significant. The Wings have seen the UNDER go 10-6 the past 2+ seasons when playing with three or more day's rest, during the same stretch, the Flames have seen the UNDER go 10-7 when they have done so. Lastly, note that the UNDER is 9-2-3 the last 14 times that the Wings played here. The two most recent games had scores of 2-1 and 3-1. Of those 14 games, 12 finished with five or fewer goals. I expect another low-scoring affair. *8

7* PHOENIX

Game: Nashville Predators vs. Phoenix Coyotes Game Time: 11/3/2010 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Phoenix Coyotes Reason: I'm playing on PHOENIX. Both these teams are struggling and both could use a victory. With the game being played at Phoenix, I expect it to be the Coyotes who break on through with a victory. While both teams are currently struggling, at least the Predators started out well. The poor Coyotes have pretty much struggled right out of the gate. I'm not counting this team out quite yet though. I won with them on 10/21 (their lone home victory) and I expect them to be at their best again tonight. The fact that the Coyotes have the worse overall record should actually work in our favor. True, off back to back losses, Nashville could badly needs a victory. However, the Coyotes should be far more "desperate," as their season is quickly slipping away. The fact that three of their next four games come on the road (at Dallas, Detroit and Chicago!) and their next home game is vs. Pittsburgh, makes getting two points tonight extremely urgent. Before writing off the Coyotes, let's not forget that this is a team which had 50 wins and 107 points last season. This is also a team which went an outstanding 29-10-2 at home last season. Phoenix goalie Ilya Bryzgalov went 3-0-1 with a 1.68 GAA against Nashville last season, en route to 42 wins and a run at the Vezina Trophy. He should be happy to see the Predators. The Coyotes are expected to have Martin Hanzal back after he'd missed the past six games. General manager Don Maloney said this of Hanzal: "His strong defensive game will help reduce our scoring chances against and give us a big body presence at the center position..." With an O/U line of five, note that Nashville is just 5-12 (-3.6) the last 17 times it played a road game with an O/U line of five. During that stretch, Phoenix was 19-13 (+3.6) when playing a home game with an O/U line of five. Both teams come in well-rested, each having last played on 10/30. That also figures to favor Phoenix. The Preds are 6-10 (-1.9) the last 16 times that they played with three or more day's rest in between games. During that stretch, the Coyotes were 13-4 (+11.4) when they did so. With the Coyotes also having dominated the Preds here in the desert, I feel that the price is more than fair. *7