11-11-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

10* THURSDAY NIGHT ROAST* ATLANTA FALCONS (-3 or better)

Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Time: 11/11/2010 8:25:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Falcons Reason: I'm playing on ATLANTA. I had the Falcons on Sunday, so was giving their game extra attention while it was live. Though that play turned out to be a loser, I still saw a lot of good things from the Falcons. Note that Altanta held a solid 365 to 278 edge in total yards and a commanding 26-14 advantage in first downs. They still won their game by six points, more than enough for a cover here, and are now an impressive 6-2 SU on the season. Their only two losses came on the road, at Pittsburgh and at Philadelphia, neither an easy place to win. With last week's victory, the Falcons are now 4-0 at home. They've outscored opponents by an average score of 30.7 to 18.5 here, outgaining them by a 404.5 to 319 margin. Looking back further and we find that the Falcons are a perfect 13-0 the last 13 times that Matt Ryan has started here at the Georgia Dome. Last time out, Ryan was 24 of 36 for 235 yards and a TD. The previous game, he went 24 for 33 for 299 yards and three TDs. Last week's victory brought him to an incredible 17-1 SU for his career at home. (We can look at SU stats, as a SU win should provide an ATS win.) Given their record here at home, the Falcons are loaded with confidence. After a big goal line stand helped preserve the victory over the Bucs, Atlanta cornerback Dunta Robinson said this of his team: "We know how to win. This team has done a great job of finishing. When our backs are against the wall, we can find a way to win the football game." Of course, the Ravens are no slouches either. In fact, they're a very good team. They're not unbeatable on the road though, as evidenced by their 2-2 SU record away from Baltimore. While both teams will be playing on a "short week," having to do so on the road can be challenging. While the Ravens "D" has admittedly been excellent, they've only scored an average of 14.2 points in their four road games, averaging 309 yards. As already noted the Falcons score more than 30 per game at home while averaging more than 400 yards. With an O/U line of 43, note that the Ravens are just 2-6 SU the last eight times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range, going 6-14 SU their last 20 in that situation. On the other hand, Atlanta is 8-1 SU its last nine home games with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 45 range. With all due respect to the Ravens, I expect Atlanta's home field advantage to again prove the difference here. *10

[Mr. IWS]

Ben Burns NHL 11-3 run

RANGERS
Game: Buffalo Sabres vs. New York Rangers Game Time: 11/11/2010 7:05:00 PM Prediction: New York Rangers Reason: I'm playing on NEW YORK. Off back to back losses and off to a poor start at h, the Rangers could badly use a victory. Tonight should present an excellent opportunity to earn one. A closer look reveals that the Rangers last two losses came vs. a very talented Washington team and on the road against a St. Louis team which was red hot at the time. Prior to that, they'd won six of nine. Tonight, they've got both the schedule and the venue in their favor. They also face a team that they know they can beat. These teams faced each other once so far this season. That game was at Buffalo (on 10/9) and the Rangers still won by a score of 6-3. While the Sabres would surely like to "return the favor" here, they're generally nothing special in the "revenge" role; they're 42-44 (-12.1) the past 2+ seasons when facing a team which beat them in the previous meeting. Now, they're in a tough spot. In addition to playing at home, the Rangers had last night off. They catch the Sabres off a hard fought (shootout) victory at New Jersey. Prior to that the Sabres won 3-2 at Toronto. That win also came via the shootout. Give the Sabres credit for winning each of the first two legs of this 3-game road trip. However, do note that both the Leafs and Devils are currently really struggling. Also, keep in mind that Buffalo had previously lost five straight, getting outscored 22-10. The last time that the Sabres played the second of back to back games was on Saturday, at Toronto. As already mentioned, they won that game 3-2 in a shootout. The Sabres were quite fortunate to even get to the shootout though, as they scored the tying goal with only 13 seconds remaining. Prior to that, the last time that they played the second of back to back games was on 10/29 at Dallas. They lost that one 4-0. Including those results, the Sabres are an ugly 13-27 the last 40 times that they played the second of back to back games. In addition to the scheduling advantage, the Rangers likely won't have to face Ryan Miller, Buffalo's top goalie. Additionally, they'll have their own "superstar" back in the lineup, as Marion Gaborik is expected back. He was quoted as saying: "I'm good to go. It's feeling confident enough and comfortable enough to jump back into things...I am very anxious to get back in there." While the price may seem a little steep at first, all things considered, I believe its more than fair. *10

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS NFL added play

UNDER falcons/ravens (44 or better) Note the toal at 44 or higher

Game: Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Time: 11/11/2010 8:20:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Atlanta and Baltimore to finish UNDER the total. I knew I liked the 'under' in this one several days ago. However, I waited to release the play as I thought there was a reasonable chance that the O/U line would climb to 44. It currently has, at least at some shops. I believe that's providing us with excellent value. The Ravens limited Miami to 10 points last week, earning a 26-10 victory. They're now allowing just 17.4 points per game. A closer look reveals that they've been particularly stingy on the road. In four road games, they've given up an average of only 15.2 points and a mere 258 yards. Given that they only averaged 14 points in those games, its no surprise that the UNDER was a perfect 4-0. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at 14-8 the last 22 times that the Ravens faced a team with a winning record. As for the Falcons, they're coming off three straight games which finished above the total, most recently a 27-21 win over Tampa. However, none of those defenses were playing as well as the one that they'll see today. Yet, the O/U lines were 43, 43 and 44.5. For the season, the Atlanta defense has been fairly solid, allowing 19.2 points per game, including 18.5 at home. When playing an 'under,' naturally we'd prefer to see teams running the ball, as that helps to keep the clock moving. While both have very capable QBS, both these teams still tend to run fairly regularly. The Ravens ran the ball 39 times last week, throwing just 28 times. They've now averaged 37.25 rushing attempts over their past four games. The Falcons ran 33 times last week. They've now had at least 29 rushing attempts in six of their last seven games and average 34 attempts per game. While the Falcons have seen five of their eight games finish above the total, a closer look reveals that the UNDER is actually 2-1 in their three games against teams from the AFC, all those games coming against teams from the AFC North. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 9-2 the last 11 times that the Falcons faced an AFC team. During that stretch, the Falcons have also seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 when coming off a victory vs. a divisional opponent. I expect those stats to improve here. *9

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG

NFL MONEY MOVE
25 DIME* Atlanta Falcons -1

[Mr. IWS]

WAYNE ROOT
Millionaire's Club Football - Atlanta Falcons
Upset Club Football - Connecticut
Slam Dunk Club/Millionaires Club Basketball - Miami Heat

[Mr. IWS]

BEN BURNS

NBA PERSONAL FAVORITE
9* Miami Heat -7

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

Strong Opinion - Rotation #107 Pittsburgh (-5 1/2) Strong Opinion at -6 1/2 or less.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #109 East Carolina (+2) Strong Opinion at +1 or more, 2-Star Best Bet at +3.

[Mr. IWS]

mti--
4-bos over