11-25-10

[Mr. IWS]

NEW GUYS! LURKERS!

Dont be afraid to post services if you come across them. Your posts will be appreciated for sure.

Just put them in the appropriate section.

note:
ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE HAS BEEN SOME BAD INFO BEING PASSED AROUND LATELY, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NFL

10* UNDER CINCINNATI BENGALS/NY JETS (43 or better)

Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets Game Time: 11/25/2010 8:20:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals to finish UNDER the total. *10 These teams both saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a relatively high O/U number to work with. Given the situation and the recent history between these teams, I believe that its generously high. You may recall that these teams faced each other in the playoffs last season. That game finished above the total. However, that's because the O/U line was only 34. Note that the final score of that game (24-14) would have stayed below this year's much larger number. A closer look at that game reveals that the Jets ran the ball 41 times while only throwing 15 times. The Jets would love to dominate a game on the ground and with their defense and for once avoid having it come down to the wire. Jets linebacker Jason Taylor was quoted as saying: "We need to put these games to bed a little earlier..." The Jets have shown that their offense is better than last season. However, they still believe that they've also got the best defense in the league and this is their chance to prove it to the world. Note that the Jets run the ball an average of 32.8 times per game, the second most number of rushing attempts per game in the league. As you know, frequent running plays tend to keep the clock going. (Prior to that playoff game, these teams did also combine for 37 points the previous week - however, that result wasn't particularly relevant as only one of the teams really cared about winning.) It should be noted that this is the second highest O/U line that the Jets have seen all season. The only higher one was against Houston; the Texans are a high-scoring team which tends to get involved in high-scoring games. The Bengals defense was admittedly pretty bad in the second half of last week's game. Indeed, they were outscored 35-0 by the Bills in the second half. That should be all the more reason to emphasize playing hard on that side of the ball this week. The Bengals did run the ball 30 times last week. While it won't be easy against a tough NY defense, they'd dearly like to establish their run game here, in an effort to take some pressure off Palmer (13 INTs) and also in an effort to keep their defense (and the Jets offense) off the field. Speaking of Palmer, he's thrown an awful lot of interceptions and has a very low passer rating. He has had success hooking up with Terrell Owens. However, that figures to be far more difficult with Revis on the field. Already this month, Revis has held Andre Johnson to four catches for 32 yards while limiting Calvin Johnson to one reception for only 13 yards. (He's also had success against Owens in the past.) Prior to last week, the Bengals did hold the Colts to 23 points, at Indianapolis. Including that result, three of their last four road games have finished with 43 or fewer combined points. Dating back to a regular season game here in October of 2008, which finished with a score of 26-14 in favor of New York, the Bengals have seen 14 of 18 road games finish with 43 or fewer combined points. Even with last week's high-scoring game, NY home games are still averaging only 35.2 combined points with opposing teams averaging only 278 total yards here. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair.


9* UNDER NE PATRIOTS/DETROIT LIONS (50 or better)

Game: New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 11/25/2010 12:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on New England and Detroit to finish Under the total. These teams both saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a very high O/U number to work with. With both teams on a short week and playing an 'early game, I believe that its too high. This is the highest O/U line the Patriots have seen for a road game yet this season. Even when matched up against high-scoring San Diego, the O/U line was only 49. That one stayed below the total with the teams combining for 43 points. Only of the Patriots last 20 road games had an O/U line in the 50s. That one fell below the total. This is also the highest O/U line that the Lions have seen all season. Note that the UNDER is 5-2-1 the last eight times that they played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater, including 3-1-1 at home. The Pats have seen the UNDER go 10-5-1 their last 16 games against teams with a losing record and 4-2 the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Including last year's 34-12 loss to the Packers, the Lions have seen 10 of their last 12 Thanksgiving Day games finish with 50 or fewer combined points. Those 12 games averaged 43.9 points. The UNDER is 4-2 in six meetings between these these teams, going way back to the 1980s. The last meeting here at Detroit was in 2002. That game stayed well below the total, a 20-12 New England victory. I mention that game, as it also happened to be on Thanksgiving Day. Overall, the Pats have seen the UNDER go 15-8 their last 23 games against teams from the NFC North, numbers I expect to improve here.


RATING AND WRITE-UP TO FOLLOW:
UNDER DALLAS COWBOYS/NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (50 or better)

[Mr. IWS]

BRANDON LANG

10 DIME* OVER 50 New Orleans - Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
10* Thursday NFL Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 4:15 ET.

There is a school of thought that believes that the firing of Wade Phillips is just what Dallas needed to kick start its season. The argument goes that Jason Garrett's demand for responsibility and accountability has refocused this team and has eliminated the mental errors that the Cowboys had been making this season. Some even argue that at 3-7, the Cowboys are still alive in the NFC playoff chase. I do NOT subscribe to these points of view. Looking back, Dallas' upset win over the Giants on the heels of the Phillips' firing was not too surprising given the aftermath of the Phillips' dismissal. However, let's not read too much into the Cowboys' 35-19 win at home last Sunday over a Lions team that has now experienced 26 straight losses on the road. In fact, the fact that Detroit still outgained the Cowboys by 71 yards of offense remains a cause for concern. Dallas remains a flawed football team and now it hosts the defending Super Bowl Champions in the Saints, who will have revenge on their mind in this Thanksgiving Day contest. Remember, the Cowboys traveled to the Superdome last December and handed New Orleans its first loss of the season by a 24-17 score (and the game was not as close the score indicates, as the Cowboys had a 24-3 lead in the 4th quarter). Tony Romo had a great game that night, completing 22-of-34 passes for 312 yards. Unfortunately for Dallas, Romo will not be on the field to repeat that performance given his shoulder injury. Jon Kitna has been serviceable as his replacement but his seven interceptions are not encouraging. Kitna and the Cowboys passing attack will be tested by a New Orleans pass defense that is 2nd in the NFL by holding teams to just 186.3 passing YPG. The Saints defense has improved under the second year of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and now that the Saints have been "playing from ahead" these days, the defense is getting back to displaying more of the ferocity it showed last year. While not as opportunistic as last season (but Darren Sharper will return for this game), the Saints defense is ranked 4th in the NFL in both yards allowed (291.7 YPG) and points allowed (17.0 PPG). New Orleans has stepped up its game after the team's 20-10 win over the Steelers three weeks ago as the Saints have now won three in a row after their 34-19 win over Seattle last week, where the offense gained 494 total yards. On the road, the Saints are scoring 27.5 PPG while outscoring their opponents by 13.3 PPG. Part of this success can be attributed to their running game that is gaining 128 yards on the ground away from home, plus this rushing attack will get a big boost with the return of Reggie Bush from his broken fibula. Drew Brees and company will be a big challenge for the suspect Cowboys defense that is allowing more than 370 YPG and over 31 PPG on its home field. Any notion the Cowboys still retain a strong home field advantage has been disproven by the fact that they were 0-4 SU and ATS before last Sunday's win over the Lions (can that really be counted?). Preparing for the Saints on a short week is difficult enough. Now having to do it in the midst of a lost season will be too much for this Cowboys team. It is rare to be able to back a defending Super Bowl Champion with this kind of motivation during the regular season. New Orleans has an here to opportunity to avenge its first loss from last season plus even more importantly, the Saints have no "margin for error" in the NFC South and NEED this game. They still trail the Falcons (by one game) plus are only tied with the ever-surprising Bucs.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer
Guaranteed Pick: Scott Spreitzer

NEVER LOST PLAY: Detroit Lions
Reason: I'm taking the points with the Lions on Thursday. On November 14, I took the New England Patriots in their Sunday night matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. I mentioned that the Steelers had just been involved with back-to-back emotional contests. This week, it's the Patriots themselvers, who're in the tough situation. New England is off wins over Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. One could argue that the Pats are off of five big efforts in their last six games. But any way you slice it, the Pats are going to be hard-pressed to maintain focus against Detroit on a short week. The Lions are 7-3 ATS and they're just a handful of plays away from being in playoff contention. The Lions have lost four games by three points or less. They have outgained four of their last five opponents, even outgaining the Cowboys in Sunday's 35-19 loss that was much closer than the final score indicates. We know what the Lions' defense can do. I believe we'll see strong numbers out of the offense also. The Lions' offense will face one of the league's worst defenses. The Patriots are 30th in total defense and 31st against the pass. They were shredded in the three-point win over Indy this past weekend. On Thursday, the Pats will face a Lions' attack that averages just three yards less per game than their own (336.4). At home, Detroit not only averages 50 total yards more per game than New England does on the road, but the Lions are averaging a whopping 33.2 ppg. This is not the offense New England wants to face, even if they were in a solid situation. I expect the Patriots to be the side that has to play "keep-up" in this one. The Pats have covered just one of their last six as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Lions are on a perfect 6-0 ATS run against teams with a winning record. And we're 27-6 ATS playing on home non-favorites against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season, provided our team is off at least three straight losses and own a win percentage of .250 or worse. This one fits the bill. I'm taking the points with the Lions on Thursday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

[Mr. IWS]

BURNS NFL

10* DETROIT LIONS +6 OR BETTER

Game: New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 11/25/2010 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason: I'm playing on DETROIT. The Lions getting blown out on Thanksgiving morning has become somewhat of a tradition. Facing a red hot New England team, most of the betting public will expect another mismatch. This year's team has been far more competitive than recent versions though and I feel that they're providing us with excellent value. The Lions failed to cover last week. However, they still held a 338 to 265 advantage in total yards. Additionally, they've still gone a highly profitable 7-2-1 ATS on the season. Five of their SU losses this season have been by five points or less. They've been particularly tough at home. In fact, they're a perfect 4-0 ATS (2-2 SU) here, outscoring teams by an average of 33.2 to 22.2. On the other hand, the Pats are 3-2 SU/ATS on the road, outscoring opponents by a modest 26.2 to 24.4 margin. Note that New England was outgained by an average of 385.6 to 294.2 in those games, in terms of total yards. While playing on Thanksgiving is always a special "treat" for teams, I feel that the Pats could be susceptible to overlooking the Lions here. After all, they're off back to back huge conference games (Steelers and Colts) AND they've got a huge divisional showdown vs. the Jets on deck. For all this season's success, note that the Pats are just 2-4-1 ATS when laying points, including 0-1 SU/ATS when listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. That loss was against Cleveland a few weeks back, the last time that the Pats played a team with a losing record. I had a big play on the Browns in that game and thought that getting +4 points at the time was generous. Now, we're getting even more points to work with and given how competitive the Lions have been at home, I feel that's just too much. The bottom line is that I really don't feel that there's as big a gap between these teams as indicated by the records. They've averaged nearly an identical number of yards per game on offense and Detroit is actually allowing less yards per game on defense. This is the Lions' chance to show the national audience that things really are different this season. I look for them to do just that by taking this game down to the wire with a solid shot at the outright upset.

10* UNDER CINCINNATI BENGALS/NY JETS (43 OR BETTER)

Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets Game Time: 11/25/2010 8:20:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals to finish UNDER the total. *10 These teams both saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a relatively high O/U number to work with. Given the situation and the recent history between these teams, I believe that its generously high. You may recall that these teams faced each other in the playoffs last season. That game finished above the total. However, that's because the O/U line was only 34. Note that the final score of that game (24-14) would have stayed below this year's much larger number. A closer look at that game reveals that the Jets ran the ball 41 times while only throwing 15 times. The Jets would love to dominate a game on the ground and with their defense and for once avoid having it come down to the wire. Jets linebacker Jason Taylor was quoted as saying: "We need to put these games to bed a little earlier..." The Jets have shown that their offense is better than last season. However, they still believe that they've also got the best defense in the league and this is their chance to prove it to the world. Note that the Jets run the ball an average of 32.8 times per game, the second most number of rushing attempts per game in the league. As you know, frequent running plays tend to keep the clock going. (Prior to that playoff game, these teams did also combine for 37 points the previous week - however, that result wasn't particularly relevant as only one of the teams really cared about winning.) It should be noted that this is the second highest O/U line that the Jets have seen all season. The only higher one was against Houston; the Texans are a high-scoring team which tends to get involved in high-scoring games. The Bengals defense was admittedly pretty bad in the second half of last week's game. Indeed, they were outscored 35-0 by the Bills in the second half. That should be all the more reason to emphasize playing hard on that side of the ball this week. The Bengals did run the ball 30 times last week. While it won't be easy against a tough NY defense, they'd dearly like to establish their run game here, in an effort to take some pressure off Palmer (13 INTs) and also in an effort to keep their defense (and the Jets offense) off the field. Speaking of Palmer, he's thrown an awful lot of interceptions and has a very low passer rating. He has had success hooking up with Terrell Owens. However, that figures to be far more difficult with Revis on the field. Already this month, Revis has held Andre Johnson to four catches for 32 yards while limiting Calvin Johnson to one reception for only 13 yards. (He's also had success against Owens in the past.) Prior to last week, the Bengals did hold the Colts to 23 points, at Indianapolis. Including that result, three of their last four road games have finished with 43 or fewer combined points. Dating back to a regular season game here in October of 2008, which finished with a score of 26-14 in favor of New York, the Bengals have seen 14 of 18 road games finish with 43 or fewer combined points. Even with last week's high-scoring game, NY home games are still averaging only 35.2 combined points with opposing teams averaging only 278 total yards here. I expect another relatively low-scoring affair.

9* UNDER NE PATRIOTS/DETROIT LIONS (50 OR BETTER)

Game: New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 11/25/2010 12:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on New England and Detroit to finish Under the total. These teams both saw last Sunday's game finish above the total. Those results have worked in our favor here, as we're getting a very high O/U number to work with. With both teams on a short week and playing an 'early game, I believe that its too high. This is the highest O/U line the Patriots have seen for a road game yet this season. Even when matched up against high-scoring San Diego, the O/U line was only 49. That one stayed below the total with the teams combining for 43 points. Only of the Patriots last 20 road games had an O/U line in the 50s. That one fell below the total. This is also the highest O/U line that the Lions have seen all season. Note that the UNDER is 5-2-1 the last eight times that they played a game with an O/U line of 49.5 or greater, including 3-1-1 at home. The Pats have seen the UNDER go 10-5-1 their last 16 games against teams with a losing record and 4-2 the last six times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range. Including last year's 34-12 loss to the Packers, the Lions have seen 10 of their last 12 Thanksgiving Day games finish with 50 or fewer combined points. Those 12 games averaged 43.9 points. The UNDER is 4-2 in six meetings between these these teams, going way back to the 1980s. The last meeting here at Detroit was in 2002. That game stayed well below the total, a 20-12 New England victory. I mention that game, as it also happened to be on Thanksgiving Day. Overall, the Pats have seen the UNDER go 15-8 their last 23 games against teams from the NFC North, numbers I expect to improve here.

9* UNDER DALLAS COWBOYS/NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (50 OR BETTER)

Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/25/2010 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Dallas and New Orleans to finish UNDER the total. The Cowboys have been an 'over' machine for nearly two months now. Squaring off against the defending world champs, a team with a very capable offense, most will be expecting a 'shootout.' As usual, I see things a little differently. Dallas has been much better defensively, since Phillips was released. In Phillips' final three games, the Cowboys allowed 45, 35 and 41 points. However, since Garrett assumed control, they've allowed 20 or fewer points in each game. True, Dallas did manage 35 points last week. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys still only managed 265 total yards of offense. Even with that effort, they're still only averaging 22.9 points per game. Now, the Cowboys will be matched up against a New Orleans defense which is quietly allowing only 17 points per game and a mere 15.2 points per game on the road. In four Saints' road games, opposing teams are managing an average of 270.7 total yards. While the Saints offense remains very capable, note that they're averaging a modest 23.5 points per game on the season. While this is clearly a different team, its still worth noting that the Cowboys have been dominant defensively in each of their past two Thanksgivings. Two years ago, they limited Seattle to nine points. Last season, they held Oakland to seven points. Not surprisingly, both games fell below the number. Speaking of last season, these teams also faced each other last season. Like this afternoon's game, that one was expected to be high-scoring, as it had an O/U line in the low 50s. Yet, the teams combined for 'only' 41 points, bringing the UNDER to 8-3 the last 11 meetings between these teams. With at least one and perhaps both of the defenses rising to the occasion, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most are expecting, with the final score falling below the generous number.

[Mr. IWS]

Root

Mill = Lions

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

Primetime TV Extravaganza NY Jets
Millionaires Club - Detroit
Billionaires Club - Dallas
No Limit - Texas
Reply With Quote

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-NFL Week 12 (9-5, 64% TY)-Thursday
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Det Lions at 12:30 ET.

The Lions have been dismal at home on Thanksgiving Day over the last six years, losing and failing to cover in all six of these contests. The average score over this stretch has been an unappetizing 36-12. However, this historical backdrop presents a nice opportunity, as I think Detroit will finally be a dangerous home underdog this "Turkey Day." New England comes off its emotional 31-28 win over Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts in the late afternoon game on Sunday. Now, with only three days to recuperate and prepare, the Patriots travel to Detroit to play the early Thanksgiving Day game. Bill Belichick has not coached against a Lions team since 2006 in the Rod Marinelli era, so he is not very familiar with this team under Jim Schwartz. As it is, New England is only 1-4-1 ATS this year as a favorite (home or away). The defense remains vulnerable as it ranks 31st (behind only pathetic Houston) in passing yards allowed (289.6 YPG) while ranking 30th in the NFL by allowing 394.3 YPG, overall. On the road, this unit is allowing 432 YPG and 29.3 PPG. Even with Shaun Hill at QB, the Lions possess a potent offense. Detroit is 6th in the NFL with its 255.9 passing YPG average. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson has the opportunity for a big day against a Patriots secondary that does not have a shutdown cornerback. The Lions come off a 35-19 loss in Dallas last Sunday, despite the fact that they outgained the Cowboys by 71 yards on offense. Detroit returns home to Ford Field after two games in a row on the road. The last time the Lions were at home they blew a 10-point, 4th quarter lead in losing to the Jets, but only after taking the game to overtime. While 2-2 SU at home overall, Detroit has covered in all FOUR games, averaging 33.3 PPG. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense leads the league by scoring 28.9 PPG. However, this unit is gaining less than 300 YPG when on the road. Led by Ndamukong Suh, the Lions defense is holding opponents to just 212.3 passing YPG (12th in the NFL). The team's strong defensive line has the ability to wreak havoc with Brady's rhythm. FIVE of Detroit's eight losses this season have been by five points or less and the Lions have covered in SIX straight games against teams with a winning record. Given their likely letdown from the Colts game and the demands of travel on a short week, the Pats will be happy to just to escape Detroit with a win. The Lions may likely find another way to lose a football game but then again, maybe not. Not many 2-8 teams are 7-3 ATS but that's EXACTLY where the Lions stand on this Thanksgiving Day. If the Browns can 'spank' the Pats by a score of 34-14 on their home field, I can can take a TD (or almost one) here in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day!

Good luck...Larry

Larry Ness' Weekly Wipeout Winner-CFB (14-5 run)-A&M/Tex
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Texas at 8:00 ET

Texas A&M won its 5th game in a row after upsetting Nebraska last Saturday by a 9-6 score. At 8-3 for the season, the Aggies have scored impressive Big 12 wins against Nebraska, Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas Tech over the last month. Is this club really that good? Mike Sherman deserves credit for making the hard decision to bench three-year starting QB Jerrod Johnson for turning the ball over too many times. Ryan Tannehill has steadied the offense by throwing only three interceptions while completing 68.6% of his passes. However, it is interesting to note that over the Aggies' last three games, they are averaging 70 yards less in the air than their season's average of 295.7 passing YPG while gaining 80 YPG less overall than their current 455 total YPG average. So, while Tannehill's ball control has been helpful, there remains the question as to whether this offense is as potent as it was under Johnson. Now the Aggies go on the road for only the second time since October 23rd to play the Longhorns. Tannehill will likely need to generate more offense in this game since the A&M defense is allowing 26 PPG along with 395 total YPG when on the road this season. The Texas offense has stalled at many times this season but the Longhorns are gaining over 400 YPG in Austin this year, 30 YPG higher than their seasonal average. Texas comes off a 51-17 blowout of Florida Atlantic last week where the Longhorns totaled more than 500 yards of much-needed offense. The Longhorns accumulated 259 yards on the ground in that game while QB Garrett Gilbert was an efficient 15-of-21 for 263 yards and two TD passes. However, the strength of this Texas team is its defense which ranks 11th in the FBS in pass defense (164.6 YPG) and 8th in the FBS in yards allowed overall (294.2). On a short week, Texas is in a very good position to play one of its best games of the season, as this will be its third week in a row (and five out of the last six) at home in Austin. At 5-6 for the season, Mack Brown REALLY needs his team to pull out a win to ensure the Longhorns are, once again, bowl eligible. Texas last failed to play in a bowl game in the 1997 season, the year BEFORE Brown's arrival from North Carolina. These schools first met in '94, that's 1894 and this marks the 117th meeting. Brown is 9-3 SU vs A&M since arriving in Austin, including 5-1 here at home. He's also 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in his final home game since coming to Austin. This will be just Mike Sherman's third A&M / Texas game and his team has been on the losing end the first two times, 49-9 and 49-39. What's more strange is that his Aggies were five-TD underdogs in Austin in 2008 and three-TD underdogs last year at home in College Station. Thanksgiving night 2010, the Aggies come in as a FG favorite in Austin. How strange is that? Don't count out the Longhorns just yet, as I expect a SUPER effort, as the Longhorns become bowl eligible, catching A&M off its emotional 9-6 win last week over Nebraska. Brown was a 2 1/2-point underdog to Texas A&M in his first-ever Aggies/Longhorns game in 1998, winning 26-24. His team hasn't been an underdog vs A&M since. That game, like this one, was played in Austin. Can you say déjÃ* vu?