UFC on Versus 3 March 3rd

[Luke]

Diego Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann likely UFC on Versus 3 main event

A bout between welterweight contenders Diego Sanchez (22-4 MMA, 11-4 UFC) and Martin Kampmann (17-4 MMA, 8-3 UFC) is set for UFC on Versus 3 and likely will headline the show.

MMAjunkie.com (www.mmajunkie.com (http://www.mmajunkie.com)) today confirmed the booking with sources close to the fighter.

The Versus-televised event takes place Thursday, March 3, though a location and venue haven't been finalized.

It'll be the first UFC on Versus show of 2011. As part of the UFC-WEC merger, Zuffa LLC signed a deal with Versus to air four UFC shows on the all-sports cable station in 2011. Two aired this year as part of an inaugural deal between the two.

Sanchez, the winner of the original season of "The Ultimate Fighter," recently returned to the welterweight division after a solid run at lightweight. However, after a title loss to B.J. Penn and with a rematch unlikely, the Greg Jackson-trained moved back up to welterweight, where he dropped a unanimous decision to John Hathaway at UFC 114. However, he rebounded in October and topped Paulo Thiago via unanimous decision to get back in the win column.

Kampmann, meanwhile, looks to rebound from a close and somewhat controversial split-decision defeat to UFC newcomer (and former Strikeforce champ) Jake Shields at UFC 121 in October. Prior to the co-main-event loss, Kampmann, a former middleweight contender, posted a 4-1 record in the welterweight division with wins over notables such as Carlos Condit, Jacob Volkmann and Thiago.

For more on UFC on Versus 3, stay tuned to the UFC Rumors section of MMAjunkie.com

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[Mr. IWS]

That should be a decent scrap.

[SPX]

Diego will lose that one. I really don't think he'll outwrestle Kampmann and he's not going to knock him out. Really bad matchup for Diego. He's gonna be a sad panda with a 1-3 record in his last four.

[poopoo333]

I was just thinking about how this should be Diego's next fight last night. Weird.

[poopoo333]

MMA Weekly reports that Mark Munoz and C.B. Dollaway have agreed to square off on the UFC on Versus 3 card that is planned for March 3rd.

[SPX]

I'll be on Munoz for that one if the odds are good.

[edman5555]

I think Diego can take Kampmann. He can get him down.

[Luke]

Alessio Sakara vs. Maiquel Falcao on tap for UFC on Versus 3 in March


http://bit.ly/gyp7Qm

[SPX]

That will be an interesting fight.

[poopoo333]

Former teammates at Brazilian Top Team, Rousimar Palhares and Alexandre “Cacareco” Ferreira are in talks to meet at UFC on Versus 3, on March 3rd. According to sources close to the situation, the fight is already agreed, and the contract will be signed soon.

The bout will bring back the long-time rivalry between Chute Boxe and BTT, teams that fought for a long time especially at Pride FC. Two of the best grapplers of the world, the Brazilians face a tough situation inside the organization: Palhares comes from a TKO loss against Nate Marquardt, and Ferreira lost in his UFC debut against veteran Vladmir Matyushenko, before deciding to move down to middleweight division.

::hammertime:: ::hammertime:: ::hammertime:: ::hammertime:: ::hammertime:: ::hammertime:: ::hammertime:: ::hammertime:: ::hammertime::

[edman5555]

I will be on Maicquel for sure. He should kill Sakara.

[Luke]

Brian Bowles returns against Damacio Page at UFC on Versus 3

http://ht.ly/3sfxh

[Luke]

It appears Brendan “The Hybrid” Schaub’s request to take on Frank Mir will have to wait.
A source has informed me that the UFC has decided to replace Mir with Stefan “The Skyscraper” Struve.
This bout has not been made official by the organization, and it appears the two stud heavyweights are expected to tangle on the UFC’s March 03rd free, televised show, featuring a main event between welterweights Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez and Martin “The Hitman” Kampmann.
Schaub is coming off a unanimous judges decision victory over Garbiel “Nepao” Gonzaga on October 23rd, at UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez.
Struve was also victorious in his last bout, defeating Sean McCorkle, on December 11th, at UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck II.
Should this change take effect, it would further lead to the ongoing speculation that Mir may oppose Brock Lesnar as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter. While many stars would still need to align for this to become official, this may be the first step in many more to come. To many within the industry, including yours truly, unless the UFC can move mountains, the odds of convincing Lesnar to spend six weeks in Las Vegas with cameras constantly being in his face, are quite frankly, slim to none

.

[Mr. IWS]

^^^^^^^good find

[poopoo333]

Shane Roller/Thiago Tavares announced

[Luke]

^^^^^^^good find



LOL not really ,the UFC already changed their minds

[Mr. IWS]

Lol^^^

[Luke]

Steve Cantwell vs. Cyril Diabate Agreed for UFC on Versus 3

http://ht.ly/3vOIi (http://ht.ly/3vOIi)

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/351.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[zY|]

Kampmann and Dollaway both look good at those lines.

[Thewisemann]

Thats what I was thinking.

[poopoo333]

An injury has forced Mark Scanlon off the upcoming UFC on Versus 3 card, and Matt Riddle has agreed to step in and face Matt Brown in a welterweight bout on the Louisville, KY card.
The fight was confirmed to MMAWeekly.com by sources close to the match-up on Friday. MMA Scraps Radio (http://www.mmascrapsradio.com/) first reported the replacement.
Matt Riddle steps into the fight on March 3 coming off a “Fight of the Night” performance against Sean Pierson at UFC 124 in December 2010.
Riddle is a former cast member for the “Ultimate Fighter” and since his time on the reality show, has gone 5-2 in the Octagon.
The bout between Brown and Riddle will remain on the night’s undercard set to go down at the KFC Yum Arena in Louisville, KY.

[poopoo333]

Falcao out, Natal steps in to fight Sakara.

[edman5555]

Motherfucker i wanted to bet on falcao

[SPX]

And I wanted to see how he would do in his second fight, and also I wanted to know if he was going to get crazy.

[poopoo333]

So how do you guys seeing Sanchez/Kampmann playing out? Lots of people are seeming to think Kampmann will be able to fend off Diego's grappling because he was able to kind of do that against Shields, but Shields was a zombie after round 1. I don't see Diego letting up, or getting tired like Shields. I can see him grinding Kampmann out to a decision. I actually think the good play on this fight is the decision prop.

[MMA_scientist]

I think it will be an all over the place war. Diego's striking is not nearly as shitty as Shields'... I wouldn't be totally shcoked if Diego got some licks in. I also think the fact that Kampmann will have to respect Diego's strikes will help set up teh takedowns. But I would be surprised to see Kampmann putting Diego down either. Close fight, slight edge to Kampmann. I agree, it will go to a decision. Diego really doesn't have that much finishing ability. He doesn't hit real hard, and he doesn't have a lot of subs.

[SPX]

I think Kampmann wins. Almost matching up with Shields in the grappling department is far from his only accomplishment. His victory over Thiago was more decisive than Sanchez's, I think, and he also subbed Volkmann.

Kampmann is bigger, taller, and longer than Sanchez, who is a pretty small welterweight. Kampmann's striking is also crisper. And Sanchez showed that he has a weakness for taller opponents who can hit him in the Hathaway fight.

[poopoo333]

Kampmann is bigger, taller, and longer than Sanchez, who is a pretty small welterweight. Kampmann's striking is also crisper. And Sanchez showed that he has a weakness for taller opponents who can hit him in the Hathaway fight.

Kampmann=6'0, 72 inch reach
Diego=5'10, 72 inch reach

[MMA_scientist]

^ Just FYI, they way they measure reach is pretty stupid and renders it basically meaningless. BUt Diego does look like he has some monkey arms.

[SPX]

^ Just FYI, they way they measure reach is pretty stupid and renders it basically meaningless.

How do they do it?

[Mr. IWS]

They should do it like HBO does for their boxing telecast. Armpit to the end of the fist.

[zY|]

How do they do it?

I believe they measure wingspan, which takes shoulder width into account.

[SPX]

I believe they measure wingspan, which takes shoulder width into account.

Indeed.

Well that's kind of retarded.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah fingertip to fingertip is how they measure it... so if you have a wide torso and t-rex arms you can still have a pretty impressive reach. Or if you have freakishly long fingers it can add to your reach. Although I suppose if you have a wide torso, your head is still farther away that the other guy's head. But it seems to make a lot more sense to actually measure the arms, like in boxing.

[poopoo333]

Alexandre ‘Cacareco’ Ferreira is out of his March 3rd fight with Rousimar Palhares according to Fighters Only (http://www.fightersonlymagazine.co.uk/news/viewarticle.php?id=6009):
According to a Fighters Only source, Ferreira has told the UFC he has lost friends and family in the floods affecting Brazil currently and is in "no condition to train or fight". No news yet on who, if anyone, will step in to face Palhares at UFC Live on Versus 3.

[zY|]

He'll probably be cut.

[poopoo333]

I hope they find Palhares a replacement...

Maia would be awesome, but I doubt they make this. So bring on Grove

[poopoo333]

Dave Branch vs. Rousimar Palhares Tapped for UFC on Versus 3 (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/1/19/1944272/dave-branch-vs-rousimar-palhares-tapped-for-ufc-on-versus-3)


Put this shit on the main card, PLEASE

[MMA_scientist]

great matchup. Main card would be great but as long as it is not on facebook, I am happy.

[Luke]

great matchup. Main card would be great but as long as it is not on facebook, I am happy.


+1 ,no facebook please . I'm already going to feel like a fag once watching UFC on my ladies facebook page

[zY|]

I think using Facebook to embrace social media users is a pretty damn slick move, actually.

[Luke]

I think using Facebook to embrace social media users is a pretty damn slick move, actually.


But why? I mean whats the point? People ages 18-25 that are on facebook already watch the UFC so how is this going to help ratings?

The UFC needs to go after the 35+ year olds that have alot of money and can afford to pay 55 bucks every month on PPV's,facebook isnt going to do that.

I really dont see the point of facebook/UFC

[zY|]

But why? I mean whats the point? People ages 18-25 that are on facebook already watch the UFC so how is this going to help ratings?


I don't think that's true. You'd be surprised just how many people look at you with a blank face when you ask them about the UFC, much less MMA in general. When you "like" something on Facebook(which you have to do to see the stream) it shows up on your news feed for all of your "friends" to see. Social media sites like facebook and twitter work virally. I can't see how there won't be some crossover appeal. Whether these people are rushing out and instantly buying PPVs is irrelevant. Exposure is exposure. The UFC is huge on branding. This is definitely a savvy move.

And whatever, free prelims for an already free show? Sign me up. I don't care if it's on fucking myspace.

[Luke]

I don't think that's true. You'd be surprised just how many people look at you with a blank face when you ask them about the UFC, much less MMA in general. When you "like" something on Facebook(which you have to do to see the stream) it shows up on your news feed for all of your "friends" to see. Social media sites like facebook and twitter work virally. I can't see how there won't be some crossover appeal. Whether these people are rushing out and instantly buying PPVs is irrelevant. Exposure is exposure. The UFC is huge on branding. This is definitely a savvy move.

And whatever, free prelims for an already free show? Sign me up. I don't care if it's on fucking myspace.


Well I have zero idea how facebook works so you could be right

[Svino]

I'll be happy as long as the Facebook prelims get rebroadcast by pirates.

[MMA_scientist]

^ right, should happen.

I think it will probably help the UFC. It is sort of insane how niche MMA still is... We had a group of friends over last night and the subject of jj came up. Out of the 10 people that were there, not one of them had any clue what gracie jj was. One guy had heard of Royce Gracie, "oh I saw a video of that when I was in high school." It was basically the equivalent of "when animals attack III" to that group. Even after an explanation, the blank stares were unsettling. I NEVER tell anyone about my bjj training obsession and MMA watching obsession. Because now, I might as well be watching pro wrasslin... but it slipped out because someone caught a glimpse of my somewhat expansive bjj dvd technique library.

Anyway, my brother, who is 21, will watch the occasional UFC with all his buddies. It is much more normal for them. So the facebook is probably a good move for the future, because the 30+ crowd either is already in or never will be. The 40+ crowd is out.

[Luke]

Matt Riddle pulls out of UFC on VS 3 fight against Matt Brown -- http://ow.ly/3Hehz (http://ow.ly/3Hehz)
\

.

[Luke]

^ right, should happen.

I think it will probably help the UFC. It is sort of insane how niche MMA still is... We had a group of friends over last night and the subject of jj came up. Out of the 10 people that were there, not one of them had any clue what gracie jj was. One guy had heard of Royce Gracie, "oh I saw a video of that when I was in high school." It was basically the equivalent of "when animals attack III" to that group. Even after an explanation, the blank stares were unsettling. I NEVER tell anyone about my bjj training obsession and MMA watching obsession. Because now, I might as well be watching pro wrasslin... but it slipped out because someone caught a glimpse of my somewhat expansive bjj dvd technique library.

Anyway, my brother, who is 21, will watch the occasional UFC with all his buddies. It is much more normal for them. So the facebook is probably a good move for the future, because the 30+ crowd either is already in or never will be. The 40+ crowd is out.


The only person I know that watches MMA besides me is my little brother and he only watches Fedor fight or freak shows(Toney-Couture, Kimbo,Lashley,Lesnar etc)

[poopoo333]

My 70 year old Grandpa enjoys watching MMA. But he doesn't have a facebook.

[MMA_scientist]

The older guys that I know that like boxing basically see MMA as a glorified toughman contest. Thety are like Bob Arum, they think grappling is gay and uncivilized, like a bunch of wild brazilians speaking pig latin going Baraka on guys or a bunch of thunderlips' using their size to and wrasslin to cheat...

[Mr. IWS]

Do you have to create a facebook account to watch the fights?

[poopoo333]

Yeah.

[Mr. IWS]

Yeah.

Cool, thanks.

[poopoo333]

Make sure you send me a friend request and poke me <3

[Luke]

Do you have to create a facebook account to watch the fights?

Im watching on my ladies account if I can figure it out

[Mr. IWS]

Make sure you send me a friend request and poke me <3

No

[SPX]

You may be onto something about older folks Scientist, because I find that younger folks--at least younger males--pretty much universally have at least heard of the shit. Even if they haven't heard the term MMA, if you clarify it by saying, "you know, like the UFC," they go, "oh, yeah yeah yeah." Plenty of girls I've talked to at least have seen it in passing on TV, too.

As for my crew--of which there are only a few--my buddy Kris is my age and into MMA, my buddy Brian used to be into it and still watches it occasionally, and my friend Anna used to watch it regularly but now has kind of drifted away. So I have no close friends at the present time who are NOT familiar with MMA, but I have in the past, so it can happen. Even then most of them at least knew what it was.

When I used to work at Unisys and was stuck in a room in a call center with 60 other people I would hear other guys bring it up after events and shit, too.

[Luke]

Johny Hendricks vs. Paulo Thiago added to UFC on Versus 3



..

[poopoo333]

Hendricks wins.

[Svino]

The older guys that I know that like boxing basically see MMA as a glorified toughman contest. Thety are like Bob Arum, they think grappling is gay and uncivilized, like a bunch of wild brazilians speaking pig latin going Baraka on guys or a bunch of thunderlips' using their size to and wrasslin to cheat...

Yeah, it's the older, "MMA is barbaric and dangerous. Boxing? - Now that's a good clean sport!" guys that get to me. IMO, old (white) dudes like this are why MMA has a hard time getting sanctioned in some places.

I can't get any of my friends to watch MMA. Last I checked, the only one who had any prior familiarity with it at all was because he had watched a couple of TUF episodes as he was flipping channels. And somehow he had heard of Anderson Silva.

Though I might keep it down if I were interviewing for a new job, I don't generally try to hide my MMA watching (or even gambling) hobby. In academia at least, people accept a fair amount of eccentricity.

[SPX]

Though I might keep it down if I were interviewing for a new job, I don't generally try to hide my MMA watching (or even gambling) hobby. In academia at least, people accept a fair amount of eccentricity.

Yeah, me either. Shit, I tell everybody proudly.

[MMA_scientist]

Though I might keep it down if I were interviewing for a new job, I don't generally try to hide my MMA watching (or even gambling) hobby. In academia at least, people accept a fair amount of eccentricity.

It is not that I think people won't accept it, no one cares. It is more that I don't want to have to answer questions non-stop... and when 99% of the world hears gracie jiu jitsu, they think of either tae kwon do, and picture me going Cosmo Kramer on a bunch of kids (no offense X) or stomping on a guy's head in a cage. And I don't want to have to explain it and then be "that guy" all the time. Anytime I have talked about wrestling or jj... I immediately become the guy that could kill you with his bare hands or the guy that thinks he can kill you with his bare hands. It just isn't worth it.

As for watching mma, I don't go out of my way to avoid it, but I don't bring it up either. Everyone on this site is probably incapable of having a normal conversation about mma with a casual fan. We all just know too much about it... it is annoying. That is why forums were created, so people of equal dork-i-tude can discuss shit no one else cares about.

I think people would describe me as fairly eccentric, and it is not unusual in my circles either.

[zY|]

I love the conversations that go something like "Oh you watch UFC too? I love UFC and watch it all the time. Chuck is still champ, right?"

[SPX]

I like it when I'm talking to a supposed MMA fan and rattle off a list of top fighters like Jon Jones or Frankie Edgar--guys who are pretty much big in MMA but not in pop culture--and they don't know who the fuck I'm talking about.

Also, I ran into some people in real life who thought Kimbo was going to own all.

And then I knew someone personally who thought that Brock might go down as the greatest MMA fighter of all time.

[MMA_scientist]

^ yeah, that is why I don't bring it up. I just have way to much knowledge about something that most guys have seen a handful of times in their lives. I watch MMA pretty much every single day. I train almost every single day. I am a huge mma nerd. I can't have a conversation with a "normie" about mma. It is nothing to be proud of, it is a a huge time suck... It is a lonely existence, because without a forum, I am lost, because no one knows as much about MMA as me except you fuckin turds.

[poopoo333]

^^I love when people talk like Kimbo is an awesome striker and is just not good on the ground.

[SPX]

^^I love when people talk like Kimbo is an awesome striker and is just not good on the ground.

LOL

I was really looking forward to his boxing debut.

Then again, in a way I was not. Because truth be told I am a Kimbo fan. He seems like a cool guy. I want to see him succeed and I know that, unless he fights guys who are appropriately not that great (and where's the money in that?) then he will lose, regardless of whether it's MMA or boxing.

[poopoo333]

I am willing to bet Kimbo is not a "cool guy". Don't let TUF fool you. He was a pretender on that show.

http://www.blogcdn.com/www.mmafighting.com/media/2008/09/kimbohands.jpg

[SPX]

I really disagree.

Even discounting TUF, everyone who has worked with him personally says that he was a very genuine, humble, down-to-earth person.

[MMA_scientist]

^ Not what I have heard guys saying. Bas says he was lazy and wouldn't listen. His new trainers say he was lazy and wouldn't listen and quit. He beat up homeless guys for the amusement of others and a few bucks. Actually the only guys I heard say he was cool and down to earth were his fellow TUFmates. Nice job keeping it together for a whole 6 weeks.

I got no beef with Kimbo, but I would venture that he is a piece of shit as a human being.

[SPX]

Scientist, you have a negative attitude.

[Luke]

Scientist, you have a negative attitude.


LOL

[MMA_scientist]

Scientist, you have a negative attitude.

I really do. But the funny thing is that I am pretty happy-go-lucky... I never get pissed IRL and I am almost always in a good mood. I think it is because I rant so much that there is nothing bottled up to make me sad.

Maybe Kimbo turned his life around...

But to me, beating the shit out of a homeless crackhead is pretty damn low. So he would have to have come to Jesus pretty seriously for me to think he is reformed. He has some money now, so he is probably just staying out of trouble.

[Luke]

I really do. But the funny thing is that I am pretty happy-go-lucky... I never get pissed IRL and I am almost always in a good mood. I think it is because I rant so much that there is nothing bottled up to make me sad.

.

Funny .......Im the same way . If I do get mad its for a very short period of time then I'm good to go

[poopoo333]

"Hendricks has been training with Story lately. So I expect Hendricks to have fixed whatever issues his takedowns were having.

He still needs a new striking coach though."


"The d'arce and guillotine are staples of all of Johnnys training partners. He has also been training with an armbar wizard. I have never really seen Johnny submittedin training though. His shoulders are too damn broad for anyone to get a grip.

Ataglance, Story was invited to trains obviously they thought it would be worthwhile to Johnny."

Someone on another forum that used to train with Hendricks, before they moved to Arlington.

[MMA_scientist]

Hendricks has really tight submission defense. I posted some vids of him in a Grappler's quest. He can grapple. He has some submission skills too. I doubt Thiago will submit him. Great fight IMO, really looking forward to it. I am back on the bandwagon.

[MMA_scientist]

Funny .......Im the same way . If I do get mad its for a very short period of time then I'm good to go

Yeah, stuff just kind of rolls off my back. I am the same way about stress and work. I like to think it is my sense of perspective, but probably I am just too lazy to give a shit very much about anything. My standard answer is "don't care" or "no preference" not in a mean way, but like "what time do you want me to schedule your appt?"- "Don't care" or from the wife: "can you watch the kids all day while I get a pedicure?" Don't care.

[SPX]

But to me, beating the shit out of a homeless crackhead is pretty damn low.

You must know more about it than me.

In the one Kimbo video I remember seeing he was actually fighting this jacked up motherfucker who had too many muscles to be a crackhead.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xp_SFtqy_kM

[poopoo333]

http://i.cr3ation.co.uk/dl/s1/gif/kimroy.gif

[MMA_scientist]

^^ well I just read about it. He also had some weapons charges and stuff. I have actually only seen one kimbo vid and that was when he fought Gannon and lost.

He seems sort of funny to me. Maybe it isn't true about the homeless, I don't know, I just thought it was common knowledge.

Like I said, maybe he is reformed. Or maybe his life is just so improved that he is staying out of trouble. But I am cynical about these things. Much like Mike Vick, I still think Vick is a piece of shit. I believe in second chances and all of that, but there are just a lot of better people out there I would like to see catch a break than Mike Vick or Kimbo Slice.

[Luke]

Yeah, stuff just kind of rolls off my back. I am the same way about stress and work. I like to think it is my sense of perspective, but probably I am just too lazy to give a shit very much about anything. My standard answer is "don't care" or "no preference" not in a mean way, but like "what time do you want me to schedule your appt?"- "Don't care" or from the wife: "can you watch the kids all day while I get a pedicure?" Don't care.


Lol how did you make it through 7 years of school?

[MMA_scientist]

Lol how did you make it through 7 years of school?

I put the work in on stuff and I can turn it on when I need to. I am not lazy in life, but just in my attitude. I just don't have teh energy to get worked up about shit or wound tightly. Life is just too short to get caught up in a lot if bullshit. But since you mention school, it is common for law profs to belittle or intimidate 1Ls, but I never gave a shit. They would be like, "Mr. P can you stand up and brief Hadley vs. Baxendale, give me the issue and the rule it stands for." I would just go "I didn't read it." Like that was an acceptable answer... it works. It is like a little seed of doubt jedi mind trick. They are like "Is this guy a badass or really stupid, I can't tell." I use it in all facets of my life. I used to play a game with a buddy where we would try to work movie lines into actual live jury trials. Some of my job interviews have been downright hilarious, I wish I had film. I just say the opposite of everything you are supposed to say. I use Office Space as my script and go from there.

Basically, I just don't give a shit. I value my family and friends, but I have never once cared about my job, school, grades, car, house, etc. I do what I can do (like I said, I do try, I was a good employee before I freed myself from the bonds of servitude, I was an A student), and shit either works out or it doesnt. It usually does though.

[Thewisemann]

Scientist, you are my fucking hero.

[Luke]

They would be like, "Mr. P can you stand up and brief Hadley vs. Baxendale, give me the issue and the rule it stands for." I would just go "I didn't read it." Like that was an acceptable answer... it works. It is like a little seed of doubt jedi mind trick. They are like "Is this guy a badass or really stupid, I can't tell." I use it in all facets of my life. I used to play a game with a buddy where we would try to work movie lines into actual live jury trials. .

::lmao:: Thats awesome

[Svino]

Regarding Kimbo: He's probably a nice enough guy, but it sounds like he never had a good work ethic, or even that much talent. I think he was humble around the guys on TUF because he knew his own limitations enough to realize that he was among people who would probably beat him, and he was at the stage in his career where he was getting in over his head athletically. He just wanted to get a couple more high profile fights to make some money before he lost too often and killed his marketability.

[zY|]

Scientist, you are my fucking hero.

I think he is everyone's hero.

[MMA_scientist]

::lmao:: Thats awesome

Thanks. I don't how many times you have seen "A Few Good Men" but I have seen it a lot. I was doing a jury trial on a dumbass criminal case and the State objected to one of my questions... I go " The defense didn't have an opportunity to depose this witness, your honor. I'd ask the Court for a little latitude." I guess it was too obvious because the judge actually started laughing... Later he made himself part of the game and he would work movie lines into the script in open court. That job was a good time, too bad it paid next to nothing.

[SPX]

Thanks. I don't how many times you have seen "A Few Good Men" but I have seen it a lot. I was doing a jury trial on a dumbass criminal case and the State objected to one of my questions... I go " The defense didn't have an opportunity to depose this witness, your honor. I'd ask the Court for a little latitude." I guess it was too obvious because the judge actually started laughing... Later he made himself part of the game and he would work movie lines into the script in open court. That job was a good time, too bad it paid next to nothing.

That's incredible.

I figured shit like that would get you fined or something.

[MMA_scientist]

That's incredible.

I figured shit like that would get you fined or something.

Nah, as long as it fits and you aren't just making random outbursts, what is going to happen? Theoretically if you are making a mockery of the court, you could be held in contempt, but that wouldn't be enough... people work their speech patterns around pop culture all the time. What is he going to say, "is that a line from a movie? Contempt!" I would have have appealed and filed an ethics complaint against him after I won. Then I would have tried to remove him from all my cases... lawyers can fuck with judges just as much as the other way around.

[poopoo333]

How hard is it to be one of the lawyers that make like $100k+ a year after getting done with law school?

[MMA_scientist]

^^ It depends where you go to school amd where you live. It also depends on what you want to do. But for the most part...Right after law school? Somewhat difficult. But within about 5 years, it is pretty easy. Honestly a lot of lawyers are fucking morons. So just having a semi-pleasant personality and not being retarded generally means you can make a decent living. There are a lot of lawyers out there not making money, but they are generally fuck ups that would not have been successful in any realm. A lot of grads think that since they are out of school they should start raking it in, but generally you still don't know anything when you get out of school. So if you actually learn how to do something, your value goes way up quickly.

Why are you looking for a career path?

[SPX]

Nah, as long as it fits and you aren't just making random outbursts, what is going to happen? Theoretically if you are making a mockery of the court, you could be held in contempt, but that wouldn't be enough... people work their speech patterns around pop culture all the time. What is he going to say, "is that a line from a movie? Contempt!" I would have have appealed and filed an ethics complaint against him after I won. Then I would have tried to remove him from all my cases... lawyers can fuck with judges just as much as the other way around.

Okay, cool.

Well if you ever get the chance in the future I want you to work this into one of your goings on:



"Tong Po . . . raped me."

[poopoo333]

Why are you looking for a career path?

Pretty much. I have been interested lately in criminal justice/education fields, and I kind of have this plan to go into some sort of law enforcement for 20 years, retire, get my retirement pension, then go teach when I am in my 40s. But I don't know... I am still trying to figure shit out. I am almost done with my first two years in college so that means I need to have something to study after this instead of these general courses.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ well hit me up in a pm and I will give you the straight truth about how much you can make and what good options are. I applied to the FBI and passed 2 of their tests and then changed my mind. My buddy applied at the same time and I know exactly how much he makes, he gets a pension also, and how difficult it is to get those jobs (not difficult for JDs). If you are going to be a cop, law school is a good idea, but not the only way to get those jobs (but it is the easiest route IMO).

[Luke]

Thanks. I don't how many times you have seen "A Few Good Men" but I have seen it a lot. I was doing a jury trial on a dumbass criminal case and the State objected to one of my questions... I go " The defense didn't have an opportunity to depose this witness, your honor. I'd ask the Court for a little latitude." I guess it was too obvious because the judge actually started laughing... Later he made himself part of the game and he would work movie lines into the script in open court. That job was a good time, too bad it paid next to nothing.


lol that would have been great to watch .

[poopoo333]

Paulo Thiago is out with an "undisclosed injury". He just knows he was going to lose.



Joe Stevenson vs. Danny Castillo Added to UFC on Versus 3 (http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/1/28/1961378/joe-stevenson-vs-danny-castillo-added-to-ufc-on-versus-3)

[Luke]

^^^I actually think Thiago had a shot of winning that one but Castillo vs Stevenson is a much more intersting fight insertSarcasm.jpg

[poopoo333]

http://www.bestfightodds.com/fights/3468.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

[poopoo333]

^^What do you guys think about that fight? At first glance I noticed the majority of Tavares' losses (and draws) are to wrestlers/top control guys..Pellegrino, Lentz, and Griffin.

[Luke]

^^What do you guys think about that fight? At first glance I noticed the majority of Tavares' losses (and draws) are to wrestlers/top control guys..Pellegrino, Lentz, and Griffin.

My knee jerk reaction is to take Tavares but I'll have to look at it

[edman5555]

Tavares is pretty good.

[Thewisemann]

Kampmann 1.55u to win 1u
Dollaway 1u to win 1.7u
I will be on Tavares later.

[poopoo333]

Kampmann 1.55u to win 1u
Dollaway 1u to win 1.7u
I will be on Tavares later.

Why?

[Thewisemann]

Why what?

[poopoo333]

Why what?

Why those bets? Trying to see how you broke these fights down.

[Thewisemann]

Kampmann is better on the feet, and can hang on the ground. Diegos pace could be a problem, but I think Kampman takes a dec. I think Munoz/CB is pretty close, I give a slight edge to Munoz. Im not impressed Roller, Tavares should win this. 1.15u to win 1u.

[edman5555]

Munoz should be a lot stronger than CB. He might be able to muscle him against the cage wall/takedown.

[MMA_scientist]

I think the Munoz/CB fight comes down to striking. I doubt either one can hold the other down. CB should have the submission edge and Munoz has the power edge. I don't really recall CB's striking being very good, but it is not terrible, he has leg kicks and a long job. Munoz has athleticism and power. I favor Munoz, but I think his line is too steep. I would need a little better odds on CB though.

[edman5555]

Cb looked pretty good with that guillotine last time around. Munoz seems a little clunky sometimes too but he is strong as an ox. Tough one to call. I agree.

[SPX]

Anyone think CB has gotten overall harder fights than Amir, even though Amir won the show and CB was just the runner up?

[trotterz]

munoz doesn't have the best chin that's for sure. But I don't think that CB can take advantage of it

[poopoo333]

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2011/2/14/1993776/the-ufc-signs-chris-weidman-to-face-alessio-sakara-at-ufc-on-versus-3

"The New Yorker's grappling prowess can't be denied, as he defeated Ryan Bader (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122506/ryan-bader) and Phil Davis (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122509/phil-davis) in wrestling competition while at Hofstra University as a two-time D-1 All American. Weidman has also excelled in BJJ competitions as a purple belt under Matt Serra (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122589/matt-serra), including his performance at the 2009 Abu Dhabi Submission Grappling tournament where had had his coming-out party against grappling phenom, Andre Galvao (http://www.sbnation.com/mma/fighter/122958/andre-galvao), in a match that saw Galvao eventually win by points, but not before Weidman had Galvao in trouble with several submissions and some highight-reel throws."


Any chance he opens as a huge dog to Sakara? If so, I'm on it. Sakara hasn't been preparing for a fighter with this type of grappling, he only has 3 weeks until this fight. Sakara has also been inactive, and has had health problems and has a hard time making 185 as it is.

[edman5555]

Nice find PP. I didn't even look into this guy.Now I will

[edman5555]

Hes only had 4 fights. Alessio's wrestling probably sucks though, not that I have checked. It's not crazy for him to take him down for 3 rounds. Alessio has wayyy more experiecne though.

[poopoo333]

Yeah I still have to look at Weidman's videos to make sure he isn't one of those high level grapplers that can't translate it into the cage at all. I just watched Sakara fight Leites. He did a pretty good job scrambling back to his feet and defending some of the early TDs.

[poopoo333]

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Sherdog-Prospect-Watch-Chris-Weidman-19956

[edman5555]

I have a feeling his line will get bet a lot if he opens around +200. There was a story about him on BE. He beat Phil Davis and Ryan Bader in wrestling matches. I think he also hung in there with Andre Galvao in a grappling match. He has a little bit of hype about him and he is a wrestler.

[trotterz]

This is the kind of line that you have to play as soon as it gets out, because the line will probably move a lot

[MMA_scientist]

Did not know that about Weidman. I remember reading about a purple belt that gave Galvao a good match, but did not know it was Weidman. Weidman will probably open as a favorite,if not, I will be on him. Perfect grappler/striker matchup... and you know my position on that.

[edman5555]

sakara is a brown belt in bjj isnt he?

[MMA_scientist]

I can believe he is a brown belt, he has only been submitted by Lister, who would also submit 99% of blackbelts. But he has not shown a very good ground game or a willingness to fight on teh ground at all... There is a difference between your run of the mill brown belt or black belt, and high level competition guys. Sakara has been training bjj for like 10 years, so he should be at least a brown belt, assuming he trains somewhat regularly.

[edman5555]

Yeah I am just thinking he might have enough overall skill to win. He has 30 fights, other guy has like 4.

[poopoo333]

I think we will probably get Weidman as an underdog.

[poopoo333]

Another injury for this card:

Cub Swanson out at UFC on Versus 3, promotion seeking new opponent for Erik Koch (http://mmajunkie.com/news/22589/cub-swanson-out-at-ufc-on-versus-3-promotion-seeking-new-opponent-for-erik-koch.mma)

[trotterz]

KOch would have been easy money. Sure shot and he would have probably been around -200

[poopoo333]

Yeah I was curious to see the line on that one. Anybody look at the prelims yet on this card? I kinda wanna get an early start. The one I have really been looking at has been Tavares/Roller. At first I thought Roller could just out grapple Tavares but I'm not sure anymore. Roller ends up on his back often for such a high level wrestler against lesser grapplers then Tavares. Tavares is aggressive, and seems to try to put people on their backs often. Tavares can push the pace, and I think if he does Roller may gas (when Pettis pushed the pace Roller gassed). Tavares is probably the better striker as well. I want to watch Tavares/Griffin to see how he did against another wrestler.

[poopoo333]

I just realized this shit was on Thursday. Time to start doing more research and stuff

[edman5555]

Tavares is pretty good IMO but I don't know much about Shane. If I can get Tavares as a Udog I might bet him.

[edman5555]

I will prob be on Diego and Rousimar.

[poopoo333]

I'll be betting on Diego as well most likely. As for Shane Roller...he was a 3 time all american NCAA div 1 wrestler (Oklahoma State).

[edman5555]

I will be betting Diego by decision. Hopefully it won't be a fucking draw this time. God damn.

[poopoo333]

The bets I plan to make: Sanchez/Kampmann go to decision, Munoz/Dollaway go to decision, Chris Weidman

Bets I might make:Tavares (although I will get fucked betting against a wrestler again), Igor Pokrajac, and Cyrille Diabate.

[SPX]

I really think Kampmann is gonna beat Diego. Kampmann has looked awesome lately and I think he'll have the size and strength over Diego to bully him. But we'll see.

[edman5555]

I really think Kampmann is gonna beat Diego. Kampmann has looked awesome lately and I think he'll have the size and strength over Diego to bully him. But we'll see.

Yeah I hear you. I'm not 100 percent confident in that. I might go with what Poopoo is saying and just bet the fight goes the distance. Or maybe I'll just bet whatever High5 bets.

[SPX]

Or maybe I'll just bet whatever High5 bets.

LOL

[poopoo333]

I would like to get Mr. grappling expert scientist to weigh in on Tavares/Roller.

[MMA_scientist]

I would like to get Mr. grappling expert scientist to weigh in on Tavares/Roller.

Tavares is not a high level grapper, but his wrestling is pretty good and he is probably a lot stronger than Roller. I think it will look a lot like the Lentz fight. Roller dominated Gomi in a grappling match... but he got subbed by Pettis. It is hard to tell, because these WEC guys have been fighting a totally different group of guys.

Bottom line, I think Roller would beat him in a grappling match. But Tavares has more tools. Close fight, I wouldn't bet either guy as a favorite.

[MMA_scientist]

just saw that the line was -110 for each guy. Looked at Tavares a litte bit, he has struggled with the wrestler/grappler prototype. Griffin. Pelligrino, and Lentz are all decent wrestlers who will go to their backs too. Roller is the same way. I might go with Roller here.

[edman5555]

What do you think about Palhares/Branch? I know Palhares is the better grappler. He is also bigger and stronger. I am thinking he has better takedowns. I will prob bet him.

[poopoo333]

just saw that the line was -110 for each guy. Looked at Tavares a litte bit, he has struggled with the wrestler/grappler prototype. Griffin. Pelligrino, and Lentz are all decent wrestlers who will go to their backs too. Roller is the same way. I might go with Roller here.

Did you watch Griffin/Tavares? Tavares took Griffin down a lot and got a lot of dominant positions. I'd watch those three fights if I were you. I thought the same thing when looking at records, but after watching some tape I like Tavares in this fight.

[edman5555]

Yeah Tavares is pretty solid but I really don't know anything about Shane Roller.

[MMA_scientist]

Yeah, I am pretty familiar with Tavares' fights. I said he (Tavares) has strong wrestling. Lentz/Pelligrino/Griffin are all several rungs below Roller on the wrestling ladder though. I think Roller is a slightly better grappler with slightly better takedowns. It is close, but the line is close. The X factor is Roller coming into the big stage. That factor could make Tavares worth a bet. I will probably stay away because it is really close and I think it could go either way.

[poopoo333]

Roller ends up on his back often for such a high level wrestler. I forgot which fights they were, but I will point them out tomorrow after I finish watching his fights again

[SPX]

Went ahead and dropped the hammer on Kampmann. 1.55u to win 1u

I really think he's going to have what it takes to beat Diego. He should be bigger and stronger, and just as well rounded.

Also, Diego's last three fights involve him getting brutalized by Penn, soundly defeated by Hathaway, and winning a clear--but still relatively close--decision against Paulo Thiago.

Kampmann subbed an admittedly undersized Jacob Volkmann, won a more impressive decision against Thiago, and arguably beat Shields, though that fight was razor thin either way.

It might be a close fight, but I think that at -155 Kampmann's worth a bet. I expect one of those two to be the case, though: Very close fight that could go either way, or a clear win for the Hitman.

[Mr. IWS]

^^^I like it man.

[SPX]

^^^I like it man.

Do you concur?

[MMA_scientist]

I think it is a really close fight. My concern is that IF Diego is able to take him down, he is going to be a lot of a lot better conditioned than Shields. He will just energizer bunny those takedowns. I think we all agree that if Shields didn't gas so badly, he would have won decisively. That said, I don't know that Diego is going to be able to get tha takedown. And Kampmann could very well turn the tables on him and get a takedown of his own. Diego's takedown defense is not that good. And if his fight with Hathway is any indication of how he does with a bigger man, he is going to have some trouble. It is probably worth a bet @ -155.

[trotterz]

My only problem with that fight is that Diego came back to Jackson's MMA for his fight with Paulo Thiago and that he is still training there for his fight with Kampmann. Since both of these guys are pretty similar skill wise, I think that a good gameplan from Greg jackson could maybe make the difference.
Look at Diego's fight against BJ Penn, against Hathaway, and now against Thiago and you can clearly see a big difference

[MMA_scientist]

^ I don't think Jackson makes a lick of difference (for any fighter really). The benefit to a good camp is the training partners. His gameplan against Penn and Hathaway was out of necessity. He definitely could not stand with those guys, so his only option was to try and try for takedowns. He was just overmatched. Thiago is an all-rounder, but his striking is not overwhelmingly dangerous, and his wrestling is not that great, so mixing it up is a little easier with him than the other guys.

[trotterz]

I think that the gameplan also does a difference. A better exemple of it could be Melvin Guillard. Since he joined jackson's camp, he is not the same fighter at all. Don't know if it's because of the gameplans or because of the training partners, maybe a combination of the 2, but he is fighting way better,beeing more cautious and it pays off, he never lost since joining that camp.

[MMA_scientist]

For every Guillard at Jackson's there is a Leonard Garcia or Keith Jardine. I can imagine Jackson giving Garcia his gameplan... "ok, just go out and throw wild bombs the entire time. You don't need to connect, just start windmilling punches and you will win a decision."

I see it more like an NCAA program. They are good because they have managed to attract talent. Guys will improve there by playing with other talented guys and getting instruction too. But I really don't buy the theory that Jackson is somehow able to formulate magic gameplans that help guys win. I attribute Guillard's success to being in a camp, any camp. He was a nomad before, just out there snorting coke and showing up to fight. He has gotten serious and it has shown, but I don't really think it was Jackson's gameplans that did it. More that he just decided to start applying himself and had better sparring partners.

[trotterz]

excellent point with garcia, there is absolutely no gameplan in his fights

[poopoo333]

Also, Diego's last three fights involve him getting brutalized by Penn, soundly defeated by Hathaway, and winning a clear--but still relatively close--decision against Paulo Thiago.

I don't agree the decision was close. The first round was close, and Diego clearly won rounds 2 and 3. I think one of those rounds was even scored 10-8

[SPX]

I can imagine Jackson giving Garcia his gameplan... "ok, just go out and throw wild bombs the entire time. You don't need to connect, just start windmilling punches and you will win a decision."


LOL

I have wondered about this myself. I always have to think that he is given some better advice than this, but he does the same thing in every fight. Why? Is it because he ignores whatever the plan is from the time the bell sounds, or is it because that IS the plan?

[SPX]

I don't agree the decision was close. The first round was close, and Diego clearly won rounds 2 and 3. I think one of those rounds was even scored 10-8

Maybe I need to go back and watch it again. I admit my memory is hazy.

I don't remember any round that was worthy of being a 10-8, though.

[MMA_scientist]

LOL

I have wondered about this myself. I always have to think that he is given some better advice than this, but he does the same thing in every fight. Why? Is it because he ignores whatever the plan is from the time the bell sounds, or is it because that IS the plan?

I have heard Jackson say that he tries to let the fighters be who they are, he doesn't try to make them into something they are not. I guess it works for Garcia, he doesn't have the tools to be champion, but at least he can win fight of the night bonuses this way. I can imagine him sitting down with the fighters like a financial planner. "First we need to know what your goals are..." Maybe Garcia's goal is not be good, but just to put a show and maybe pick up a bonus here an there. In all fairness, if he fought more intelligently, his record would probably be the same, and he would probably be out of the UFC because he really is not very good or memorable aside from his wild windmilling.

[SPX]

In all fairness, if he fought more intelligently, his record would probably be the same, and he would probably be out of the UFC because he really is not very good or memorable aside from his wild windmilling.

This is probably true. Sometimes fighters just don't have the tools to be great. It doesn't matter who they train with or what style they go with.

I also think that some fighters make unorthodox styles work, and that's probably what works best for them. I've heard people criticize Machida because he doesn't fight like a kickboxer, but if he did, would he be any better than he already is? Probably not. And it may be that his style is the reason that he has gotten as far as he has.

[Svino]

Maybe Garcia's goal is not be good, but just to put a show and maybe pick up a bonus here an there. In all fairness, if he fought more intelligently, his record would probably be the same, and he would probably be out of the UFC because he really is not very good or memorable aside from his wild windmilling.

Yeah, it's like we were talking about in the other thread. The way the UFC is run, it's like there are two different paths you can take to success: you can focus on winning matches (and maybe being boring), or you can focus on being exciting / outrageous and sucking up to Dana.

[zY|]

Oh shit, there's a fight on fuckin thursday.

[edman5555]

In the hathaway fight Diego went in for a takedown and got kneed in the face. He was on queer street from that point on. The same thing happened to him in the BJ fight. Obv there is a whole other issue with Diego constantly getting kneed in the face but you can't help but wonder if he would have done better against them had he not gotten caught in the first 2 minutes of those fights.

Also, Kampann gets taken down a decent amount. Condit got him down, Shields got him down and def would have done a better job of it if he didn't gas.

I really don't know who wins this. I feel like Diego is going to take him down to win a decision but Kampmann is very talented any he has a great guillotine.

[edman5555]

Diego commits to takedowns BTW. He powers through.

[edman5555]

I would think the standup edge will def be going to kampmann. What do you guys think his chances are of subbing Diego?

[trotterz]

I would think the standup edge will def be going to kampmann. What do you guys think his chances are of subbing Diego?
I see no way at all that kampmann could beat diego by submission. Diego's defense to submission is just too good. In the same way as mayhem miller. He fought far better grappler than kampmann and never got submitted.
Have you even seen him in the countdown shows for his older fights? he is training really bad to not get submitted. I remeber seeing him putting himself in a rear naked choke situation with a rope in his neck, and pulling on it the hardest he could and the longest too, just so he could resist the more possible in that situation.

I think that kampmann could win that fight, but if he does, it won't be by submission

[MMA_scientist]

Kampann will not be subbing Diego.

[poopoo333]

^^Is that going to be apart of one of your parlays?

I am guessing the rest of the lines will be released for this card today. The fights are in 2 days.. I think I am going to call off of work Thursday night

[poopoo333]

^^lines are up on bookmaker. I just took Branch @+185 and Page @+290. Chris Weidman is -110, I thought he would be @ + numbers so I am staying away from it now

[poopoo333]

Joe Stevenson is -170 to Danny Castillo...but I am not sure about this fight

[Svino]

I'm surprised Palhares isn't a bigger favorite.

[edman5555]

I was hoping to get Palhares at a better line actually. No such luck. I am at work now so i'll have to research this when I get home.

[poopoo333]

The only thing holding me back from betting on Cantwell is that he has not fought since UFC 97. I think Cantwell is going to sub Diabate.

[Svino]

Well the lines on both Cantwell and Palhares look like they might be getting better.

[poopoo333]

I wouldn't be too confident in Palhares. If this fight goes to round 2 he is going to gas. I actually put 2u on Branch @+185. I am liking the underdogs on this card

[edman5555]

I don't know if he will gas. What fights did he gas in? Henderson?

[SPX]

Joe Stevenson is -170 to Danny Castillo...but I am not sure about this fight

Stevenson fucked my ass hard in the Danzig fight, so I am gunshy on betting on him.

He's at -155 now though, so it's at least worth a little research.

[edman5555]

Maybe I'll take a look at Lucio Linhares. That went 2 rounds. If he is tired there you might be right.

[poopoo333]

Maybe I'll take a look at Lucio Linhares. That went 2 rounds. If he is tired there you might be right.

I am right. I watched it last night, and he was on his back laying down exhausted after he won.

[trotterz]

Damn I hate 5dimes, they are so slow to put the lines on

[SPX]

Fuck it, 1.35u to win 1u on Joe Daddy.

That strikes me as a pretty good line on a veteran UFC fighter and former title contender against a WEC guy who wasn't even really in the title picture.

[edman5555]

Get multiple accounts. I have 5dimes/bookmaker/bodog.

[poopoo333]

I am surprised at the sakara line

[SPX]

I am surprised at the sakara line

What do you know about Weidman?

[poopoo333]

He has a strong grappling background. Google him, there are a lot of articles about him. The only thing I am worried about is that he might not be able to apply his grappling skills to mma well

[poopoo333]

Sanchez/Kampmann goes distance: -300
Dollaway/Munoz goes distance: -230

[SPX]

Sanchez/Kampmann goes distance: -300
Dollaway/Munoz goes distance: -230

There's no way I'd take either of those at those lines.

[poopoo333]

Sanchez/Kampmann is down to -230

[SPX]

Mike Hammersmith is picking Sakara to win via 1st round stoppage, FWIW.

[poopoo333]

I am either going to do great on Thursday or just straight up shit the bed

[poopoo333]

Two preliminary-card fights from Thursday's UFC on Versus 3 event will stream for free on Facebook.

MMAjunkie.com today confirmed that lightweights Joe Stevenson vs. Danny Castillo and light heavyweights Steve Cantwell vs. Cyrille Diabate will be part of the live one-hour stream, which begins at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT).


yaa I am gonna try to call off work

[MMA_scientist]

Maybe I'll take a look at Lucio Linhares. That went 2 rounds. If he is tired there you might be right.

This is the reason I am gunshy about this fight. Both guys are coming to grapple, so I am looking forward to it (too bad it is on the undercard for some unknown reason). But Linhares was actually getting the better of Palhares in the grappling department until he got subbed. Branch has a long and lean build like Linhares, and he is really good grappler himself. Everyone thinks Palhares is just going to take leg home, but don't be surprised if Branch's heel hook defense is on point. Too bad they won't offer a distance prop, because you could probably get pretty good odds.

[MMA_scientist]

^^Is that going to be apart of one of your parlays?

No. Because it could happen. Although neither Kampmann or Diego has ever been subbed, they have several submission wins bewteen them. I save my parlays for things that flat out are not going to happen. Like if Diego was fighting Hardy or something... then I would do "not Hardy by submission"

[poopoo333]

The way I see it is that Linhares engaged in a grappling match with Palhares in round 1 and whatever time there was in round 2 before he got subbed, which gassed Palhares out. Palhares slowed down against Horn, and I am pretty sure that was fairly one sided IIRC. He also slowed down against Hendo as well IIRC. I think Branch will be able to hold his own on the mat, and if this turns into a faster paced grappling match on the floor, I am sure Palhares will significantly slow down and Branch will be able to capitalize. Branch probably won't be too easy to take down either, he was stuffing Harris as well

[SPX]

Branch was outwrestled by Harris all three rounds before being put to sleep.

Just saying.

[poopoo333]

Speaking of Gerald Harris, he lost his fight this weekend

[MMA_scientist]

lazy bastards.
http://www.bestfightodds.com/events/351.png (http://www.bestfightodds.com)

Looking at Cantwell here. Maybe Page.

[MMA_scientist]

Branch was outwrestled by Harris all three rounds before being put to sleep.

Just saying.

He was held down, but he was not really outgrappled. Harris wasn't doing much and Branch just kept triangle hunting. At least that is how I remembered it. But still, Palhares is not a wrestler, and he doesn't pin guys down that much- he usually goes for the submission.

[poopoo333]

^^I already got that shit memorized. I was betting from the library today at school and got all the opening lines.. Page was at +290 and Branch +185

[SPX]

Speaking of Gerald Harris, he lost his fight this weekend

Yeah, Scientist mentioned that. It sucks.

He's already got something else lined up for Tachi Palace in May, though.

I'd really like to see him in a Bellator MW tourney.

[MMA_scientist]

The way I see it is that Linhares engaged in a grappling match with Palhares in round 1 and whatever time there was in round 2 before he got subbed, which gassed Palhares out. Palhares slowed down against Horn, and I am pretty sure that was fairly one sided IIRC. He also slowed down against Hendo as well IIRC. I think Branch will be able to hold his own on the mat, and if this turns into a faster paced grappling match on the floor, I am sure Palhares will significantly slow down and Branch will be able to capitalize. Branch probably won't be too easy to take down either, he was stuffing Harris as well

Yeah, but Palhares might very well outstrike Branch. He has some nice leg kicks and Branch's standup sucks balls. At least he has some reach/

[poopoo333]

Good point. I wonder if Branch will just go for the TDs and work from the top and try to avoid subs. I do remember Branch improved significantly from the Drwal fight to the Attonito fight. In the Drwal fight he seemed slow and kind of telegraphed his TDs, but in the Attonito fight he looked great in comparison, he looked quick and his takedowns looked smooth. So there is a chance he is one of those fighters that is going to look improved every single fight

[edman5555]

FYI Poopoo. You will prob get a good arb opportunity on Paul Harris.

[poopoo333]

I know. I actually figured I'd get an arb on Branch and Page when making the bets. I probably won't arb out though because I ain't scared homie

http://www.themmanews.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Nick-Diaz_Responds-to-Miller.gif

[edman5555]

Well you should be scared. PaulHarris is going to win.

[SPX]

If Cantwell drops back to even or better, I'm going to put .5u on him.

Diabate got dropped by both Cane and Gustaffson, and once on the ground, Cantwell should clearly be the better grappler.

My biggest concern is that Cantwell won't come to grapple. He's mostly just wanted to kickbox since he came into the UFC and only went out of his way to go to the ground against Afroman. The possibility of a shitty gameplan combined with his injury layoff makes me hesitant to do a full unit bet, but at even or better I think it's worth half-a-u.

[poopoo333]

^agreed. It would be worth a decent sized bet if he showed in the past he wanted to grapple. I also don't like the fact that he hasn't fought in 18 months

[SPX]

Jesus. Cantwell up to -150 on Sportsbook.

This line is all over the place.

[edman5555]

This Weidman guy sounds pretty good but he has only fought four times and Sakara is very experienced.

[MMA_scientist]

Been looking hard at Mizugaki/Duran. Duran is an athletic and big 135, but he is basically a power puncher. He has won his last few via guillotine. He trains out of a place called Pinnacle BJJ, but it looks like it is a small time place, a purple belt running the jj program. He has only 1 win over an opponent with a winning record (8-5) and that was a decision. He has lost to the 2 other guys with winning records. He has basically been looking great smashing cans in local shows. Mizugaki should have a big edge on the ground, and should be able to get the takedown. Mizugaki also has a solid chin. The only issue is that Duran looks like he hits like a truck and Mizugaki has gassed out in the past in fights where he had to grapple a lot. Still, I think Miz is worth a bet at -225.

[poopoo333]

I don't know if you know this detail, but Duran stepped up for this on short notice as well.

[MMA_scientist]

^^ yeah, supposedly it is a big cut for him too, so it might take something out of him.

[SPX]

War Fucking Mizugaki!

I've liked him ever since I first saw him against Torres. He hasn't been able to string any wins together and lost his last fight though, so I hope he can put a streak together starting with this one. I'd hate to see him get cut.

[MMA_scientist]

This Weidman guy sounds pretty good but he has only fought four times and Sakara is very experienced.

Weidman is a beast. He is an uber-prospect... think Phil Davis type prospect. He could flop of course, but I am getting him now before he is -500 on every fight.

[SPX]

Hey Scientist, since you've done the research, give me the counter-argument to this assessment:



Takeya Mizugaki vs. Reuben Duran: Having suddenly appeared in the WEC and seemingly been swept off the map just as quickly, Takeya Mizugaki makes it into the UFC in a do-or-die fight. Sporting a 2-3 record in several tough fights in the division, Mizugaki was in the unfortunate position of being Urijah Faber's welcoming committee to the Bantamweight division, being choked out cold in the first round. His opponent is Reuben Duran, a UFC new-comer who cut his teeth inside the KOTC promotion, and sports a 7-2 record as a pro.
While I'd never heard of Duran before this fight, a few minutes on youtube showed exactly how far this kid could go on the big stage. Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game make Duran a potential killer in the UFC Bantamweight division. The main issue for me here is Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin, and Duran's uncanny counter-punching. Don't blink, as Mizugaki doesn't even have time to get his feet under him before Duran lands one on the chin for the KO.

[MMA_scientist]

I can't give a counter-argument, other than "liar liar pants on fire." It sounds like something Rios would have written, it does not reflect reality, at least as I see it. Where that guys sees "Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game", I see a heavy handed brawler with no wrestling and a low level positional game with a tight guillotine choke. I specifically looked into his gym and trainers, and I see no indication that he is above a blue belt level on the ground.

Where he sees "Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin," I see solid posture and submission defense a very solid chin. He when has he been KO'd? I don't see any indication of a chin problem in Mizugaki at all.

Aside from that whatever Duran has done, he has accomplished over complete tomato cans. Duran does appear to have heavy hands though. Mizugaki has been fighting the very best BWs in the whole wide world (Faber, Torres, Jorgenson, Yahya, and Curran are his last five fights) and he has not looked too bad. Although he got his back taken by Faber, he was actually winning the fight up to that point (I specifically recall because I bet on Faber). If Jason Reinhardt has taught us anything, it is that competition level makes difference.

Mizugaki stood with Torres and rolled with Yahya. I think he can survive whatever Reuben Duran throws at him.

But really, the biggest reason I think Mizugaki will take this is wrestling. Mizugaki should get him down and pound on him.

All of that said, just because he has been can crushing does not mean he cannot beat better guys. But I don't think there is any empiracle evidence that he will be able to hang with Mizugaki. Doesn't mean it won't happen of course.

[MMA_scientist]

I should also mention that this is all predicated on Mizugaki not being an idiot. He seems to sometimes get drawn into his opponent's game. He has pretty much grappled with guys he should be standing with, and stood with guys he should be grappling with. If he decides to stand and bang, he could very well get beat.

[poopoo333]

SPX, I read your boyfriend Mike Hammersmith's analysis on the Mizugaki fight as well, and thought "hmm maybe Duran will be a good bet". Then I watched video on both guys and had no clue what Hammersmith was talking about. I wouldn't even bet on Duran when he opened at +200 yesterday. Then again, I am not confident enough to bet Mizugaki

[SPX]

I can't give a counter-argument, other than "liar liar pants on fire."

LOL


It sounds like something Rios would have written, it does not reflect reality, at least as I see it.

Hammersmith.


Where that guys sees "Perfect timing on his strikes, takedowns, and a slick submission game", I see a heavy handed brawler with no wrestling and a low level positional game with a tight guillotine choke. I specifically looked into his gym and trainers, and I see no indication that he is above a blue belt level on the ground.

Where he sees "Mizugaki's upright posture, suspect chin," I see solid posture and submission defense a very solid chin. He when has he been KO'd? I don't see any indication of a chin problem in Mizugaki at all.

Aside from that whatever Duran has done, he has accomplished over complete tomato cans. Duran does appear to have heavy hands though. Mizugaki has been fighting the very best BWs in the whole wide world (Faber, Torres, Jorgenson, Yahya, and Curran are his last five fights) and he has not looked too bad. Although he got his back taken by Faber, he was actually winning the fight up to that point (I specifically recall because I bet on Faber). If Jason Reinhardt has taught us anything, it is that competition level makes difference.

Mizugaki stood with Torres and rolled with Yahya. I think he can survive whatever Reuben Duran throws at him.

But really, the biggest reason I think Mizugaki will take this is wrestling. Mizugaki should get him down and pound on him.

Thanks for the insight. Lots of good info there.

And I agree about Miz's competition. He definitely has not been handed any gimme fights. It's kind of fucked up when your FIRST fight in the WEC is against Torres when he was champ.

The Curran win was extremely close and could've gone either way. He might have even beaten Jorgensen if he hadn't gotten clocked in the first round, considering he came back to win the third. The Yahya win was decisive.



All of that said, just because he has been can crushing does not mean he cannot beat better guys.

That's true, too. Sometimes it's really difficult to know.

[SPX]

SPX, I read your boyfriend Mike Hammersmith's analysis on the Mizugaki fight as well, and thought "hmm maybe Duran will be a good bet". Then I watched video on both guys and had no clue what Hammersmith was talking about. I wouldn't even bet on Duran when he opened at +200 yesterday. Then again, I am not confident enough to bet Mizugaki

Indeed. Thanks for the insight.

I'm going to go watch some stuff later tonight. I'll check back in with some thoughts of my own.

[MMA_scientist]

OFF TOPIC: How many draws do you guys remember seeing in the last 12 months? Penn/Fitch, Edgar/Maynard, Kongo/Browne- any others?

I ask, because the draw option is almost always +4000 or more. I think the draw option might be a + EV value bet, overall. Don't tell anyone.

With judges becoming more an more concerned with their inability to properly score, the draw bets might be seriously + EV over the course of 12 months.

[MMA_scientist]

OK did some quick research, since UFC 120 (09/2010) there have been 4 draws. The 3 I mentioned and Bongfelt/Natal at 121.

I think I might have something here. Stay tuned.

[edman5555]

What do you guys think of Damacio Page and Brian Bowles?

[MMA_scientist]

OK.

I went back to September 2008. There have been 6 draws in the UFC in the last 2.5 years: Maynard/Edgar, Penn/Fitch, Bongfelt/Natal, Kongo/Browne, Uno/Camoes, and Lentz/Tavares.

Of those 6 draws 4 of them have occured in the last 6 months.

The lines (I am guessing) average around +4000 for the draw. 10 fights per card. There has been 55 cards (39 UFCs, 11 UFN, 5 TUF). 550 fights.

550/ 6 = 1 draw for every 110 fights. So you would need +11000 on the draw option to have broken even.

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.


So, nevermind.

[MMA_scientist]

What do you guys think of Damacio Page and Brian Bowles?

I think Bowles will win (again), but Page has the value.

[edman5555]

I just watched that Reuban Duran highlight video. He looks like he is fast and can hit very hard.

[Svino]

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.

So, nevermind.

On the other hand, if you already have weighted bets on both guys to win by decision because you're confident it will go the distance and the judges are fucking crazy, betting the draw is a pretty important hedge to make.


(goddammitsomuch)

[Svino]

Oh, and on the subject of "automatic" bets, my investigation into the decision prop is showing some early promise.

If you bet 1u on each Zuffa main card fight to go to decision, you would so far this year have risked 29u and won about 4.1u. (with the distribution by event being: -0.35u, +2.37u, +0.07u, -0.33u, +1.83u, and +0.48u)

[SPX]

I just watched that Reuban Duran highlight video. He looks like he is fast and can hit very hard.

I agree. I watched both highlights and two full fights. He looks like a solid prospect, although if he's mostly been fighting cans, I'm sure that has something to do with it. But as mentioned before, how he'll do against better guys is a question mark.

I hope Miz wins, because I really like him. But I'm going to stay away from this one.

[edman5555]

I just watched the weigh ins. I'm feeling good about my bet on Diego. I've got him straight up and I've got him by decision. He is not smaller than Kampmann. He is a little shorter and a lot thicker. He will be getting takedowns.

[Luke]

OK.

I went back to September 2008. There have been 6 draws in the UFC in the last 2.5 years: Maynard/Edgar, Penn/Fitch, Bongfelt/Natal, Kongo/Browne, Uno/Camoes, and Lentz/Tavares.

Of those 6 draws 4 of them have occured in the last 6 months.

The lines (I am guessing) average around +4000 for the draw. 10 fights per card. There has been 55 cards (39 UFCs, 11 UFN, 5 TUF). 550 fights.

550/ 6 = 1 draw for every 110 fights. So you would need +11000 on the draw option to have broken even.

In short... it is a bad bet over time. And even over the last year, where there has been an uptick in draws, it is still not that good.


So, nevermind.



well yeah......you cant just bet draw everytime and expect to turn a profit . I also dont think you can just take all the fights over a year and use that as a measure because a lot of match ups arent even suppose to be close (-400 to -500 lines).

I think if you took out all the -250 and above fights you'd be a lot closer to the 40 to 1 mark.

Also with MMA being 3 and 5 rounds its makes it even more unlikely of a draw because you need a 10-10 or 10-8 round to even out the score and those scores themselves are rare. In boxing fights are 8, 10 or 12 rounds so all you need is 10-9 rounds for a draw to happen .

I think when betting a toss up fight or betting a fighter by decision its a smart idea to cover yourself with a draw but only if you personally think the fight is going to be close ,otherwise just let it ride


draws happen so rarely that unless you have a gut feeling about a fight draws are too hard to predict

[poopoo333]

http://mmaaddicts.com/dann/ufc-on-versus-3/rousimar-palhares-dave-branch.jpg

[Luke]

^^^^^^^^^^^Dana sure looks different in that picture

[MMA_scientist]

well yeah......you cant just bet draw everytime and expect to turn a profit

I realize that. I was looking at the recent influx of draws though... I did not realize that there were so few draws before. I figured it would be close to a break even bet, but thought we might be seeing an trend towards more draws while judges try to placate everyone. But it turns out that the bet is so bad overall, that there would almost have to be a draw every other event for it to be +

[MMA_scientist]

On the other hand, if you already have weighted bets on both guys to win by decision because you're confident it will go the distance and the judges are fucking crazy, betting the draw is a pretty important hedge to make.


(goddammitsomuch)

If 50% of all fights go to decisions, betting the draw on every decision is not that bad. On average in the last 30 months, the draw is 110:1. It pays 40:1. But if you only bet the fights that went to a decision it is not nearly as bad of a bet (it still sucks compared to an even money bet, but probably worth it for those fights).

[edman5555]

I am betting on Palhares and Diego tonight. Anyone here think they will be losing? If so, why?

[SPX]

I honestly think Kamp may just outstrike and out wrestle Diego. He's looked great lately and has a way of exceeding expectations.

[edman5555]

Really? I feel like Diego is going to run out there, pick Kampmann up in the air and plant him on his ass.

[SPX]

Fuck you, edman!

[MMA_scientist]

I bet on Diego also, but I think it is a true coin toss fight. Would not be surprised at all to see Kampmann stuff him repeatedly, or even get top position like he did against Thiago.

Palhares should win, but again, I think Branch is very live. Palhares should be slightly better in all areas, but I wouldn't be suprised to see Branch come on strong later in the fight. I do think Palhares will win though.

[poopoo333]

Sorry edman, branch got this

[edman5555]

I think Palhares can take him down fairly easily and his chin is pretty solid. Branch doesn't hit that hard and I'm not convinced his takedown D is that great. I'm not sure that Palhares can sub him if he gets him down so it might have to go the distane which worries me a little bit. You should watch the weigh in video. Palhares is obv a thick dude but I hadn't seen him in a while so it was kind of shocking this time around. His lats are ridiculous. Poopoo should call him and get some tips. Diego is also much bigger. I read an interview with him on Sherdog and he said that in his last camp his hand was broken so he wasn't lifting weights at all. He has been on a strength/weight lifting regimen since then and he is a lot thicker now. We'll see what happens. I agree with you about Kampmann though, he is very good. He is the capability to win. I just give the advantage to the guy with the takedown ability.

[edman5555]

Plus Kampmann was takin down quite a bit by Condit. That fight was very close with a lot of wrestling/grappling. Diego is def a better wrestler than Condit. Jake was handling him in the wrestling department as well, even after he gassed. I think Jake is obv a much better grappler than him but I think Diego can drive as well as him and get the TD if really commits to it. Maybe not 100 percent as good but lets say 85 percent.

[MMA_scientist]

Well, that is why I bet on Diego ultimately. Kampmann does not have a lot of ways to finish this fight, and Diego will probably be on top at least in the latter portion of the fight when his cardio takes over. But Kampmann surprised me with his grappling against Thiago, and he should have a slight edge standing.

[edman5555]

I am already on Palhares for 6u i think it is. I have 4u on diego. I might do another bet and parlay them together. I have 2u Diego and 2u Diego by dec(I think). I have to double check, I might be off by a little bit.

[SPX]

Anyone got thoughts on Bowles/Page?

[edman5555]

No idea. Page has beaten some decent guys though, I wouldn't bet against him. Bowls has been out a while too.

[poopoo333]

Poopoo should call him and get some tips.

Thanks for making me look like a jackass, I was in class reading this on my phone when I just lol'd in the middle of a quiet ass class.


Sanchez by decision is @+200 right now. Lots of value imo

[poopoo333]

Anyone got thoughts on Bowles/Page?

I bet on Page because he was @+290. If he wasn't close to 3:1 I wouldn't of bet on this fight, but I think that line was ridiculous.

[edman5555]

Damacio beat Scott Jorgensen. That makes me think he must have some skill. Bowles has a pretty impressive record though.

[poopoo333]

I also bet on Page/Bowles to go to decision @+325. Hopefully Page wins by decision

[MMA_scientist]

Damacio beat Scott Jorgensen. That makes me think he must have some skill. Bowles has a pretty impressive record though.

They have both changed since the first fight, Bowles was getting the better of the striking, but Page stuffed Bowles' takedown and was about to slam him when Bowles locked up a choke. I think Page has value, but I think Bowles will win.